Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market remained weak yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a weak and volatile trend. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals are still weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate, so the policy direction is expected to continue the previous strict control of incremental trends. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side for finished product prices [3]. - The price of iron ore may fluctuate with the prices of downstream products and mainly show a volatile trend. The supply growth is limited, and the port inventory is trending downward. The demand support still exists, but the market divergence remains, and risk control is necessary [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, while hedging positions can seize opportunities according to their own situations. In the long - term, both may face the situation of weakening marginal demand [9][10]. - The price of industrial silicon may be weak in the short term, and the price of polysilicon may show a high - level volatile trend. The price increase chain of polysilicon needs to be further observed whether it can be smoothly transmitted to the downstream [14][15]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to be volatile in the short term. For glass, if there are substantial real - estate policies, the futures price may continue to rise; for soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [17][18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2394 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 18,068 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.470%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1176 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 17,689 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, while that in Lecong remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The speculative demand for rebar decreased significantly with the price decline, leading to inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, the production increased rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 798.50 yuan/ton, up 1.01% (+8.00). The positions decreased by 18,144 lots to 384,500 lots. The weighted positions were 945,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.53 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.68% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, with shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreasing. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrivals increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.52 tons to 240.71 tons. The port inventory decreased month - on - month, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Information**: On August 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rose 0.77% to close at 6018 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 22 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) rose 0.74% to close at 5716 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, with a premium of 184 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the prices may fluctuate greatly. In the long - term, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may face the situation of weakening marginal demand [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 1.43% (+120). The weighted positions decreased by 1174 lots to 500,807 lots. The spot prices of different grades decreased. The price may be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 8250 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 50,330 yuan/ton, up 2.76% (+1350). The weighted positions increased by 18,874 lots to 381,348 lots. The spot prices remained flat. The price may show a high - level volatile trend, and the support levels are 47,000 and 44,000 yuan/ton [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe remained unchanged, while those in Central China decreased by 30 yuan. The national inventory of float glass decreased. The net short positions decreased. The price may be volatile in the short term, and in the long - term, it depends on real - estate policies and demand [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 10 yuan. The domestic inventory increased, and the downstream demand was tepid. The production was stable, and the output is expected to increase. The price may be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18].

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in cyclical commodity prices, with steel, cement, and industrial metal prices declining, while float glass and thermal coal prices continue to rise. The film market shows significant improvement due to new releases during the summer season [2][13][31]. - The construction demand remains weak, leading to a decrease in steel prices and continued pressure on cement prices. However, float glass prices have seen an increase [5][15][42]. - The automotive and chemical industries are experiencing a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, while the oil asphalt sector shows a contrary increase, indicating resilience in infrastructure demand [2][5][15]. Group 2 - Real estate sales are still struggling, with a year-on-year decline of 20.8% in transaction area across 30 major cities. The decline is more pronounced in third-tier cities, with a drop of 37.0% [5][18]. - The average daily retail of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year, supported by the release of the third batch of national subsidies. However, dealer inventory pressure has slightly increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [5][21]. - The film box office revenue saw a significant increase of 49.0% week-on-week and a year-on-year growth of 64.8%, driven by the release of popular new films during the summer [5][31]. Group 3 - In the manufacturing sector, there is a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, particularly in the automotive and chemical industries, while oil asphalt production has increased, reflecting ongoing infrastructure demand [15][48]. - The prices of industrial metals have declined due to weak demand and the impact of tariffs on copper, with copper and aluminum prices dropping by 1.1% and 0.4% respectively [57][58]. - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to grow, while export logistics show signs of decline, with highway freight traffic down by 0.9% and railway freight volume down by 1.4% [66][70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, implying a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, denoting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - PX: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: ★★★, denoting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core View - The chemical futures market shows a mixed performance, with different products having different supply - demand relations and price trends [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as device restarts, seasonal demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed up at the end of the session, but still in a downward pattern. Downstream demand has some support, but supply is expected to increase [2] - Polyolefin futures closed up, with polyethylene having stable supply and some improvement in demand, while polypropylene is in a seasonal demand slump [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated narrowly, with supply rising and demand weak, but import pressure is expected to ease [3] - Styrene futures prices declined slightly. Overall, there is a slight decrease in supply and a slight increase in demand, but factory inventory may increase [3] Polyester - PX and PTA are in a weak - oscillating pattern due to falling oil prices and the demand off - season. Supply is increasing, and there is a need to watch for demand recovery and valuation repair [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with technical support and overseas device shutdown. Supply is expected to increase, and the upward drive is limited [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices follow raw materials. Short fiber may be more bullish in the medium - term, while bottle chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose slightly due to coal cost news. Coastal ports are expected to accumulate inventory, but there may be a demand recovery in the peak season [6] - Urea futures prices rose sharply. The current supply - demand is loose, and attention should be paid to macro and export policies [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices rebounded at the end of the session. Cost support increased, but supply is expected to rise and demand is weak, so the price may oscillate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices oscillated weakly. The comprehensive profit improved, but the long - term supply pressure remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rose sharply. Supply is high, and the market is facing a weak reality, but the price is expected to be difficult to break the previous low [8] - Glass futures prices were weak. Production and sales are insufficient, and the market has returned to reality trading [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish with a Neutral Bias [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - The market sentiment has weakened, and the glass and soda ash markets are oscillating weakly. The glass supply has not seen a policy - driven contraction, and the real - estate sector has dragged down the rigid demand. The soda ash production is high, and there are concerns about future supply expansion and weakening consumption [1]. - The double - silicon market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The silicon - manganese price is under pressure from warehouse receipts, and the ferrosilicon price is expected to fluctuate with the sector, with relatively loose long - term capacity [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures oscillated weakly yesterday. After the continuous callback of the spot price, downstream purchasing showed a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Soda ash futures also oscillated weakly, and the spot prices of light and heavy soda ash decreased [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - For glass, the supply has no policy - based contraction, and the real - estate sector has affected the rigid demand. Although speculative demand has increased and factory inventories have decreased, they are still at a high level. For soda ash, the production is down but still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is relatively restrained, but there are expectations of further capacity expansion and weakening consumption [1]. Strategy - Glass: Neutral; Soda Ash: Bearish with a Neutral Bias [2] Double - Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese futures had a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday, and the market had a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Ferrosilicon futures fell slightly, and the spot market sentiment worsened [3]. Supply and Demand Logic - For silicomanganese, production increased, iron - water production decreased, and factory inventories decreased significantly. The price is suppressed by warehouse receipts. For ferrosilicon, production continued to increase, apparent demand decreased, and factory inventories are at a medium - high level. In the long - term, capacity is relatively loose [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Bearish; Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the opportunity to focus on traditional sectors during market pullbacks while continuing to recommend high-end electronic fabric products. The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau highlighted the need to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, which is expected to release domestic demand potential. The report anticipates that the governance of "involution" will form a combination of market, administrative, and legal measures, leading to clearer price recovery effects in industries with good demand support, such as cement [2][10] - The report suggests that the traditional building materials sector is nearing a cyclical bottom, with expectations for improvement in infrastructure and real estate demand. It highlights that the basic conditions for the sector are expected to improve, particularly with the recent release of real estate optimization policies [16] Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.75%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) dropped by 3.32%. Among individual stocks, Honghe Technology saw a significant increase of 22.1% [1][10] - The performance of the recommended stocks included Honghe Technology (+22.1%), Zhongcai Technology (-2.5%), Xibu Cement (-1.44%), Huaxin Cement (-6.9%), and others [1][10] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a focus on the following stocks: Zhongcai Technology, Honghe Technology, Xibu Cement, Huaxin Cement, Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Weixing New Materials [3][16] Key Industry Insights - Cement is expected to benefit from anticipated improvements in infrastructure and real estate demand. The supply structure is expected to continue optimizing in the medium to long term [16] - The report indicates that the consumption building materials sector is likely to stabilize as real estate policies improve, with leading companies undergoing channel transformations to enhance scale effects [16] - New materials such as glass and carbon fiber are expected to face high demand and opportunities for domestic substitution, with leading companies likely to experience rapid growth [16] - The report also notes that the glass sector is at a historically low market value, with expectations for recovery as the industry undergoes cold repairs [16]

Group 1 - The year marks the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the planning phase for the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on improving air quality through systematic measures [1] - The continuous improvement of the environmental standards system since 2015 has been a key driver in enhancing air quality, necessitating strong measures for deep emission reductions to achieve the goal of a beautiful China [2] - Current emission reduction measures are categorized into regular and emergency reductions, with many regions relying on collaborative reduction and enhanced pollution source inspections, which have shown limited effectiveness due to the small scale of pollution sources involved [2][3] Group 2 - Local governments are empowered to establish stricter environmental standards than national ones, allowing for tailored approaches to emission reductions based on regional conditions [3] - A well-established environmental standards system can maintain a healthy market order by setting a unified environmental baseline for enterprises, preventing unfair competition and promoting green development [3] Group 3 - The formulation of standards must be scientific and reasonable, ensuring both feasibility and alignment with local realities while referencing advanced practices from other regions [4] - Each standard should focus on addressing key issues, such as discrepancies in emission levels compared to advanced provinces and gaps in monitoring and control processes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and risks. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July 2025, down 6.16% from the previous month [4] - The London gold spot price increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI new orders index reached a 9-month high in July [5] - Weekly price changes included rebar down 2.90%, cement price index down 1.37%, rubber down 2.33%, coke up 3.94%, coking coal up 0.98%, and iron ore down 2.55% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates changed by -0.57 percentage points, +0.20 percentage points, +3.0 percentage points, and -3.94 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and flat glass prices changed by -0.77% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1409 CNY/ton [6] - The flat glass operating rate was 75% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for July was 49.40%, down 0.8 percentage points [7] - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled down 0.19%, copper down 1.43%, and aluminum down 1.49%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +12.77%, -18.19%, and -10.26% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices reached a new high since 2011 [8] - Graphite electrode price was 18,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1357.4 CNY/ton, down 10.61% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price was 20,490 CNY/ton, down 1.49%, with estimated profit at 2926 CNY/ton (excluding tax), down 10.26% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.27 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 80 CNY/ton [9] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 390 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 was 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [10] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points this week, down 2.30% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.40%, up 0.40 percentage points [10] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.75%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles at -0.51% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 index was 46.36% and 64.79% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 index is 0.57, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows signs of seasonal weakness, but infrastructure construction is experiencing a slight recovery. The blast furnace operating rate and apparent consumption have both increased year-on-year, with a rise of +1.1 and +0.5 percentage points to 2.2% and -0.3% respectively [2][6] - The social inventory of steel has seen a rebound [2] - In the textile sector, operating rates are higher than the same period last year, while the polyester filament and automotive sectors have seen a decline in operating rates [14][20] Group 2: Cement and Construction Industry - Cement production and demand are recovering, with grinding operating rates increasing significantly by +6.0 percentage points to -0.2% year-on-year. Cement shipment rates have also improved by +0.8 percentage points to -2.2% [25][29] - The cement inventory ratio has slightly decreased by -0.5 percentage points to -0.2% [32] Group 3: Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass consumption has decreased, with production slightly rebounding but still down by -7.7% year-on-year. Apparent consumption has also fallen by -5.0 percentage points to 8.7% [37][41] - Asphalt operating rates have increased year-on-year, up by +2.5 percentage points to 8.0% [37] Group 4: Real Estate and Demand Trends - The transaction volume of commercial housing has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of -13.6 percentage points to -19.6% in 30 major cities. The largest drop is observed in third-tier cities, with a decline of -44.0 percentage points to -31.5% [49][50] - National railway and highway freight volumes have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of -0.5 percentage points to 6.5% and -0.8 percentage points to 2.8% respectively [60][64] Group 5: Export and Shipping Trends - The shipping prices continue to decline, with the CCFI composite index dropping by -2.3% week-on-week. The Southeast Asia route has seen a significant price drop of -3.9% [89][90] - The BDI average price has also decreased by -3.1% [89] Group 6: Price Trends in Agriculture and Industry - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and fruit prices falling by -0.3% and -0.2% respectively, while vegetable and egg prices have increased by +0.6% and +3.6% [101][105] - The industrial product prices have generally declined, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index dropping by -1.4% [113][114]

Market Performance - Domestic commodity market stabilized after a significant correction, with some products like coking coal and iron ore showing slight increases of 2.3% and 0.8% respectively[1] - Industrial silicon experienced a notable decline of 3.5%, while other products like glass and polysilicon saw reduced declines, generally under 2%[1] Price Trends - Following the "倒 V" market trend since July 18, the price resilience among various commodities has become evident, with some products like live pigs and industrial silicon completely offsetting previous gains[2] - Coking coal, polysilicon, and coking coal showed relatively smaller pullbacks of 26%, 44%, and 52% respectively, indicating stronger market consensus[2] Futures Structure - The long-term contracts for most commodities outperformed short-term contracts, reflecting market expectations for long-term improvements, with coking coal's long-term contract priced 3.46% higher than the short-term[2] - Cumulative excess gains since July for coking coal, glass, and soda ash relative to short-term contracts reached 9.43%, 6.38%, and 6.15% respectively[2] Inventory Insights - Steel inventory increased by 1.60% this week, while coking coal inventory decreased by 2.07%, indicating a significant reduction despite high absolute levels[3] - Float glass inventory fell by 3.9%, suggesting a healthy production and sales situation, while caustic soda inventory rose by 3.1%, indicating weaker fundamentals[3] Market Outlook - The commodity market has entered a new phase of differentiation among products, with short-term pressures but strong expectations for long-term improvements[3] - Continued monitoring of supply and demand dynamics across industries is essential for future assessments[3]

Production Side - As of the fourth week of July, the blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[19] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, exceeding last year's average[19] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, a slight decrease compared to the previous period[19] - The asphalt inventory saw a significant decline, indicating an acceleration in physical work volume in the infrastructure sector[7] Demand Side - In July, the real estate market remained weak, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities down by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.88%[8] - The total box office revenue for movies was 84,200.00 million yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 99.53% but a year-on-year decline of 14.85%[8] Trade and Prices - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) rose to 1,305.40, with a month-on-month growth of 2.19%[9] - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) decreased to 1,684.07, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 16.42%[9] - The CPI showed a mild increase in consumer prices, while industrial product prices fluctuated, with PPI pressures from weak energy prices[9]