1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1纯碱市场 - 纯碱检修计划衔接力度略不及预期及新产能投放取得进展，产量见底回升；前期基差力度不足导致未能形成持续正反馈，当前期现优势出货，厂家间压力分化 [8][9]。 - 供应重回上行，带动库存压力回升；终端备货较充足，终端利润状况较差，驱动偏弱。但阶段性盘面贴水较大，期现大幅出货后持货减少，结合头部厂家产量负荷波动，短期可转观望 [9]。 - 策略建议：前期空头思路可阶段逢低获利，重新等待入场机会 [9]。 2.2玻璃市场 - 需求氛围弱势及部分区域受低价期现货源压制，低价区厂家降价以促出货。部分厂家据自身情况点火复产 [169]。 - 估值角度进入理想布局区间，但须等待市场情绪好转启动。后续跟踪产线变动情况，观察低价期现货源消化进度及主产区现货量价情绪变化 [169]。 - 策略建议：市场暂缺上行驱动，远月合约待情绪缓和逢低做多思路 [169]。 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1纯碱市场 3.1.1市场综述 - 当期总产量68.51万吨，环比增加2.13万吨；重质产量36.98万吨，环比增加0.98万吨；轻质产量31.53万吨，环比增加1.15万吨 [8]。 - 进口0.1万吨，环比持平；出口4万吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 浮法玻璃日熔量157,275吨，环比减少250吨；光伏玻璃日熔量98,780吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 重碱消费量34.46万吨，环比减少0.04万吨；轻碱表需30.38万吨，环比增加3.01万吨；纯碱表需73.76万吨，环比增加3.86万吨 [8]。 - 碱厂库存162.43万吨，环比减少5.25万吨；社会库存36.80万吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 氨碱法成本1317元，环比持平；氨碱法利润83元，环比增加55元；联碱法成本1123元，环比减少33元；联碱法利润177元，环比增加33元 [8]。 3.1.2月度供需 - 当期纯碱进口0.46万吨，环比增加0.14万吨；出口17.06万吨，环比减少2.37万吨 [16]。 - 纯碱进口依赖度0.11，环比增加0.01 [16]。 3.1.3基差价差 - 展示了沙河地区重质纯碱市场价、纯碱期货价格指数、沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、玻璃期货价格指数等期现货价格对照 [24][25][26][27]。 - 展示了沙河重质纯碱01、09、05合约基差，纯碱09 - 01、01 - 05、05 - 09价差，玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差等 [29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39][40][41]。 3.1.4市场价格 - 沙河区域重质纯碱市场价当期值1243元，环比上周下降45元，环比去年下降907元 [45]。 - 展示了轻重碱区域价格表，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区重质纯碱和轻质纯碱价格及环比情况 [49]。 3.1.5供应 - 目前检修/降负荷的厂家有山东海化、安徽德邦等多家企业；计划检修的厂家有丰城盐化、发投碱业等 [83]。 - 国内纯碱开工率当期值78.57%，环比上周下降0.06%；周产量68.51万吨，环比增加2.13万吨 [84]。 - 展示了氨碱工艺、联碱工艺开工率及各区域纯碱开工率 [85][88][90]。 - 展示了国内重质、轻质纯碱周产量及国内纯碱周产量 [92][93]。 - 展示了氨碱法、联碱法成本利润及相关品价格，如合成氨价格指数、河南液氨市场价等 [95][97][99][101][108][110]。 3.1.6需求 - 展示了光伏玻璃在产日熔量、浮法玻璃在产日熔量、重质纯碱日耗量、重质纯碱周度需求等数据 [131][133][134][135]。 - 展示了轻质、重质纯碱周度消费量、产销率及光伏玻璃价格 [137][140]。 3.1.7库存 - 纯碱企业库存当期值162.43万吨，环比上周减少5.25万吨；轻质纯碱企业库存81.83万吨，环比减少1.45万吨；重质纯碱企业库存80.6万吨，环比减少3.80万吨 [145]。 - 展示了各区域纯碱库存情况 [154][155][157][158][159][161]。 3.2玻璃市场 3.2.1市场综述 - 浮法玻璃日熔量当期值157,275吨，环比减少250吨；周产量110.09万吨，环比减少0.17万吨 [167]。 - 表观消费量110.94万吨，环比减少0.33万吨 [167]。 - 厂库库存338.31万吨，环比减少0.53万吨 [167]。 - 天然气线成本1448元，环比持平；天然气线利润 - 148元，环比减少10元；煤制气线成本953元，环比减少9元；煤制气线利润177元，环比减少1元；石油焦线成本1081元，环比持平；石油焦线利润19元，环比减少10元 [167]。 3.2.2月度供需 - 展示了平板玻璃当月产量、浮法玻璃当月进口量、出口量及平板玻璃当月产量同比数据 [174][176][178][180]。 3.2.3基差价差 - 展示了沙河地区重质纯碱市场价、纯碱期货价格指数、沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、玻璃期货价格指数等期现货价格对照 [184][185][186][187]。 - 展示了沙河玻璃5mm大板01、09、05合约基差，玻璃09 - 01、05 - 09、01 - 05价差，玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差等 [189][190][192][194][195][196][199][201][202][203]。 3.2.4市场价格 - 展示了浮法玻璃5mm区域价格表，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区5mm小板和大板价格及环比情况 [207]。 - 展示了沙河、华东、华北等地区浮法玻璃(5mm)市场价及沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、京津唐5mm玻璃大板含税价等 [209][210][211][220]。

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing fluctuations at the bottom of the PMI range, with expectations for a gradual recovery in demand driven by government policies and market dynamics [4][16] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the home decoration materials sector, particularly with the implementation of "old-for-new" subsidies and service consumption stimulus policies [4][16] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The building materials sector has shown a slight increase of 0.18% in the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 and the Wind All A indices, which decreased by -1.08% and -0.02% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.26% and 0.20% [4] - The construction industry PMI has shown signs of improvement, indicating a potential recovery in new orders due to eased tariffs [4][16] 2. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national average price for high-standard cement is 367.8 RMB/ton, down by 3.0 RMB/ton from last week and 6.3 RMB/ton from the same period last year [20][21] - The average cement inventory among sample enterprises is 65.7%, with an average shipment rate of 47.8%, reflecting a slight increase in demand [25][19] - The report anticipates a stabilization or slight rebound in cement prices due to improved supply discipline among leading companies [12][19] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The report notes that the profitability of mid-range glass fiber remains resilient, with demand in domestic wind power and thermoplastics continuing to grow [13] - The industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in supply-demand balance, supported by the growth in high-end products [13] 2.3 Glass - The glass sector is facing weak terminal demand, with prices under pressure as the industry enters a seasonal downturn [14][15] - The report suggests monitoring production line adjustments to gauge future price recovery potential [14][15] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which are expected to positively impact the building materials sector [16] - The anticipated recovery in consumer confidence and the ongoing implementation of national subsidies are expected to drive demand for home decoration materials [16] 4. Weekly Market Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of price changes and inventory levels across various regions, indicating a mixed performance in the cement market with some areas experiencing price increases while others see declines [19][20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing fluctuations at the bottom of the PMI index, with expectations for a gradual recovery in demand driven by government policies and market dynamics [4][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the home decoration materials segment, particularly with the implementation of "old-for-new" subsidies and service consumption stimulus policies [4][16] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 0.18% in the past week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which decreased by -1.08% and -0.02% respectively [4] - The report highlights that the cement market price is currently at 367.8 RMB/ton, down by 3.0 RMB/ton from the previous week and down by 6.3 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [20][21] 2. Cement Market - The average cement inventory ratio is reported at 65.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week, but down by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [25] - The average daily cement shipment rate is 47.8%, up by 1.4 percentage points from the previous week but down by 5.3 percentage points compared to last year [25] - The report notes that the cement price is expected to stabilize or slightly rebound in the coming months due to supply-side adjustments and demand recovery [12][19] 3. Glass Fiber Market - The report indicates that the profitability of the glass fiber sector remains low, with many second and third-tier companies operating at breakeven or loss [13] - The demand for high-end products in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to continue growing, which may support profitability for leading companies [13] - The report recommends companies like China Jushi and suggests monitoring others such as Zhongcai Technology and Shandong Fiberglass [13] 4. Glass Market - The glass sector is facing weak terminal demand, with inventory levels remaining high and price pressures expected to increase as the market enters a seasonal downturn [14][15] - The report recommends Qibin Group as a leading player in the glass market, with a focus on its cost advantages and growth potential in photovoltaic glass [14] 5. Home Decoration Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to enhance the demand for home decoration materials [16] - Companies such as Beixin Building Materials and Arrow Home are recommended for their strong growth potential and market positioning [16]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement clinker price in the Yangtze River Delta has increased by 30 CNY/ton, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and a proactive approach from companies to stabilize prices and protect profits [3][14] - The overall cement shipment rate in May was 48%, showing a slight decline year-on-year, but the recent price increase is expected to boost market confidence [3][17] - The report highlights that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to high demand and domestic substitution opportunities [19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while the building materials sector rose by 0.59%, with the ceramics sector showing the highest increase of 3.77% [12][17] - Key stocks in the recommended portfolio include Zhongcai Technology (+5.1%), Western Cement (+4.1%), and others [12][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 2.46% year-on-year, but government policies are aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][14] - The report anticipates that cement prices will rise following the clinker price increase, supported by a decrease in coal prices [3][14] Key Sub-Industries Tracking - Cement: The national average price fell by 0.8%, but the Yangtze River Delta has initiated price increases, indicating potential stabilization in the market [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market is under pressure, with prices declining, while float glass prices have also seen a slight decrease [18][19] - Fiberglass: The market for alkali-free yarn continues to decline, with prices dropping by 0.62% week-on-week [19] Long-term Value and Growth Potential - Traditional building material leaders are expected to show significant long-term value, while new energy materials are likely to continue their growth [19] - Recommendations include companies like Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and others that are positioned to benefit from improving infrastructure and real estate demand [19]

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish, Expected to Oscillate with a Downward Bias [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] Core Views - Glass and soda ash markets face an oversupply situation, resulting in low - level oscillations. The glass market is pressured by high inventory and weak downstream expectations, while soda ash is affected by new production capacity and cautious downstream procurement [1]. - The ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are pessimistic. Their prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand shows some resilience due to high - level hot metal production. Cost factors also play a role in price trends [3][4]. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Futures prices continued to decline, and spot trading was weak. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and high inventory strongly suppresses prices. Glass enterprises are reluctant to shut down production, and long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity. Attention should be paid to production line changes and raw material prices [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices trended downward. Due to maintenance, daily production decreased slightly. Downstream procurement was cautious, and the market faced strong destocking pressure. The price will be under pressure until the oversupply situation is alleviated. Follow - up attention should be paid to production line maintenance and new production projects [1]. Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market was weak, and factory low - price sales willingness was low. Production was at a low level but rebounded slightly week - on - week. Demand showed resilience due to high - level hot metal production. High inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppressed prices, while raw material supply contraction supported costs. Attention should be paid to hot metal data and manganese ore supply [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices oscillated weakly at a low level. The spot market was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. Production reached a record low due to enterprise losses. High - level hot metal maintained demand resilience, but destocking was difficult. Short - term prices were affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [4]. Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillate [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillate with a downward bias [2] - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Oscillate [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillate [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [2]

Group 1 - As of May 29, 2023, seven steel mills in Shandong have confirmed a total annual production target of 55.33 million tons, a decrease of approximately 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a planned reduction in crude steel production of 4%-10% for 2025 [1] - According to Mysteel, as of May 29, the production of rebar has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with social inventories declining for the twelfth consecutive week, while market demand has increased slightly to 2.4868 million tons, up by 15,500 tons or 0.63% from the previous week [1] - A stainless steel plant in South China plans to halt production for approximately 25 days starting July 5 due to ultra-low emission renovations, which is expected to impact stainless steel output by 80,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The Malaysian government plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground transportation vehicles from B10 to B20 [1] - As of May 25, 2023, Canadian canola exports decreased by 10.36% week-on-week to 160,100 tons, while commercial inventories stood at 919,900 tons [1] - As of May 29, the total inventory of float glass in China was 67.662 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 107,000 boxes week-on-week, while the total inventory of soda ash was 1.6243 million tons, down by 52,500 tons [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ member countries are expected to decide on increasing oil production at a meeting on May 31, although the potential scale of the increase remains unclear [2] - A major aluminum supplier has lowered its aluminum premium for shipments to Japan in Q3 to $145 per ton, down by 20% from Q2's $182 per ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Downward - driven commodities**: Coking coal, glass, methanol [1] - **Equity index**: Sideways [2] - **Treasury bonds**: Range - bound [2] - **Gold and silver**: Sideways to weak [2][4] - **Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel)**: Range - bound [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Sideways to weak [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Downward [6] - **Steel and ore (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore)**: Sideways to weak [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Bearish [8] - **Crude oil**: Sideways to weak [8] - **Methanol**: Downward [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Downward [10] - **Cotton**: Sideways [10] - **Rubber**: Sideways to weak [10] 2. Core Views - **Commodity futures**: Coking coal, glass, and methanol have clear downward drivers. Hold previous short positions in JM2509 for coking coal, FG509 for glass, and MA509 for methanol due to supply - demand imbalances [1] - **Equity index**: The A - share market continues to trade in a narrow range with low volume. While the downside risk is controllable due to policy support, the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market is under pressure. Although the long - term yield trend is downward, the current directional drivers are limited, and the odds are not favorable [2] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are affected by short - term factors and lack upward momentum. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [4] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. Copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to trade in ranges, with supply - demand dynamics and policy factors influencing their trends [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices [6] - **Steel and ore**: Traditional demand seasons are ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist, leading to a bearish outlook for steel and ore prices [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in downward price trends [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Soda ash production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Glass demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline [8] - **Crude oil**: With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] - **Methanol**: Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] - **Cotton**: Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] - **Rubber**: Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Coking coal**: Supply is in continuous surplus, and previous short positions in JM2509 should be held [1] - **Glass**: Pessimistic demand expectations, and previous short positions in FG509 should be held [1] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and previous short positions in MA509 should be held [1] 3.2 Equity Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range, low - volume sideways trend. The red - chip defensive and technology - growth styles rotate rapidly, and funds are cautious. The downside risk is controllable, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] 3.3 Treasury Bonds - The bond market is in a weak sideways pattern. Although the central bank maintains loose liquidity, market concerns about redemptions are rising, and the bond market is under pressure [2] 3.4 Precious Metals - Gold prices are affected by short - term factors such as tariffs and geopolitics. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [2][4] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. The supply of ore is tight, but the demand is cautious, and the market is expected to trade in a range [4] - **Aluminum and alumina**: The macro environment is uncertain. Alumina supply has short - and long - term differences, and prices may fluctuate. Aluminum is expected to trade sideways [4] - **Nickel**: The market is in an oversupply situation. Although the previous short - call option strategy can be continued, new short positions should be avoided due to policy uncertainties [4] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] 3.7 Silicon Energy - Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the furnace - starting situation in the southwest during the wet season [6] 3.8 Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The traditional demand season is ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist. It is recommended to hold short - call options or short the 10 - contract on rebounds [6] - **Hot - rolled coil**: External and internal demand is weak, and cost reduction risks exist. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be held [6] - **Iron ore**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and short the 01 - contract [6] 3.9 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking coal**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in inventory accumulation and downward price trends [8] - **Coke**: Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel prices are falling, leading to a decline in production willingness and downward price trends [8] 3.10 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda ash**: Production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Short positions in the 09 - contract should be held, and new short positions can be taken on rebounds [8] - **Glass**: Demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short positions in the FG509 contract should be held, and the buy - glass 01 - sell - soda ash 01 arbitrage can be continued [8] 3.11 Crude Oil - With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] 3.12 Methanol - Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] 3.13 Polyolefins - Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] 3.14 Cotton - Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] 3.15 Rubber - Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend. The short - call option strategy can be adjusted and continued [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the context of expected supply increase and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to show a weak oscillation. It is recommended to hold short positions, with the lower support temporarily seen at 13,000 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On May 27, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.70% from the previous day. The basis of whole milk (switched to the 2509 contract) was -95 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 5.00%. The quoted price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,800 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan or -4.17% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: On May 27, the 9 - 1 spread was -780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or -2.63%; the 1 - 5 spread was -70 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 44.00%; the 5 - 9 spread was 850 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or -3.95% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In April, Thailand's natural rubber production was 105.70 thousand tons, down 43.50 thousand tons or -29.16% from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 194.10 thousand tons, down 15.20 thousand tons or -7.26%; India's production was 45.40 thousand tons, down 7.60 thousand tons or -14.34%; China's production was 58.10 thousand tons, up 42.30 thousand tons. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires was 78.22%, down 0.11 percentage points; the weekly开工 rate of all - steel tires was 64.96%, down 0.13 percentage points [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of May 27, the bonded area inventory was 614,189 tons, down 4,504 tons or -0.73%; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 43,544 tons, down 26,713 tons or -38.02% [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: In the short term, the decline of the futures market has slowed down, and it is more likely that the inventory will remain flat. In the medium and long term, there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation after the maintenance. It is recommended to track the implementation of maintenance in May - June. If the maintenance is implemented, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. For unilateral trading, continue to short on rebounds in the far - month contracts, and consider the 7 - 9 positive spread for monthly trading [2]. - **Glass**: The spot market is generally weak, and the market sentiment is still pessimistic. Although the fundamentals have improved marginally, the market expectation is poor. It is expected that the glass price will continue to be under pressure in the short term and oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at the 1,000 - point level for the 09 contract [2]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: On May 29, the spot prices in North China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in East China was 1,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.76%. The price of the glass 2505 contract was 1,114 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan or -1.15%; the price of the 2509 contract was 1,009 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or -2.13% [2]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: On May 29, the spot prices in North China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged, while the price in East China was 1,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or -3.45%. The price of the soda ash 2505 contract was 1,260 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or -0.63%; the price of the 2509 contract was 1,215 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or -1.26% [2]. - **Supply**: As of May 23, the soda ash开工 rate was 78.63%, down 2.04 percentage points from May 16; the weekly soda ash output was 663,800 tons, down 14,000 tons or -2.05%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 156,700 tons, unchanged; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 99,990 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Inventory**: As of May 23, the glass factory - warehouse inventory was 67,769,000 weight boxes, down 313,000 weight boxes or -0.46%; the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 1.6768 million tons, down 35,000 tons or -2.06%; the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 368,000 tons, up 3,000 tons or 0.82% [2]. - **Real Estate Data**: In the current period, the year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was -18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points; the growth rate of construction area was -33.33%, a decrease of 7.56 percentage points; the growth rate of completed area was -11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points; the growth rate of sales area was -1.55%, an increase of 12.13 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized, while the futures price has continued to decline. The main reason from the fundamental perspective is that the demand has not improved, but the supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The price may still be under pressure [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On May 28, the price of oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon in East China was 8,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or -0.54%. The basis of SI4210 increased by 120 yuan or 14.29% [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: On May 28, the 2506 - 2507 spread was -30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or -20.00%; the 2507 - 2508 spread was -25 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 28.57% [4]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon production was 300.8 thousand tons, down 41.4 thousand tons or -12.10%; Xinjiang's production was 167.5 thousand tons, down 43.3 thousand tons or -20.55%; Yunnan's production was 13.5 thousand tons, up 1.2 thousand tons or 9.35%; Sichuan's production was 11.3 thousand tons, up 6.7 thousand tons or 145.65%. The national开工 rate was 51.23%, down 6.57 percentage points; Xinjiang's开工 rate was 60.74%, down 17.31 percentage points; Yunnan's开工 rate was 18.13%, down 1.84 percentage points; Sichuan's开工 rate was 7.30%, up 6.81 percentage points [4]. - **Inventory Change**: As of May 28, the Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 187.4 thousand tons, down 14 thousand tons or -6.95%; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory was 24.1 thousand tons, up 0.3 thousand tons or 1.26%; the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory was 22.5 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons or -0.44%; the social inventory was 582 thousand tons, down 17 thousand tons or -2.84%; the warehouse receipt inventory was 321.4 thousand tons, down 1.7 thousand tons or -0.53%; the non - warehouse receipt inventory was 260.6 thousand tons, down 15.3 thousand tons or -5.55% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of polysilicon has gradually stabilized, and the futures price has also shown signs of stabilization. In June, it is expected that the supply and demand will be weak. There is a risk of inventory accumulation if there is no further production cut. Pay attention to the production and inventory changes of polysilicon [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On May 28, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of P - type cauliflower material was 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 34,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type material spread increased by 190 yuan or 15.70%; the cauliflower material basis increased by 190 yuan or 2.83% [5]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: On May 28, the price of the PS2506 contract was 35,100 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan or -0.54%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 4.26% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 13.3 GW, up 0.88 GW or 7.09%; the polysilicon production was 21.5 thousand tons, up 0.1 thousand tons or 0.47% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: In April, the polysilicon production was 95.4 thousand tons, down 0.7 thousand tons or -0.73%; the import volume was 0.1 thousand tons, down 0.22 thousand tons or -69.49%; the export volume was 0.13 thousand tons, down 0.07 thousand tons or -37.06%; the net export volume was 0.03 thousand tons, an increase of 0.14 thousand tons or 127.44%. The silicon wafer production was 58.35 GW, up 7.59 GW or 14.95%; the import volume was 0.09 thousand tons, up 0.03 thousand tons or 46.90%; the export volume was 0.63 thousand tons, up 0.04 thousand tons or 7.13%; the net export volume was 0.55 thousand tons, up 0.01 thousand tons or 2.64%; the demand for silicon wafers was 65.95 GW, up 8.28 GW or 14.36% [5]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory was 260 thousand tons, up 10 thousand tons or 4.00%; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.95 GW, down 0.49 GW or -2.52%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt was 470, unchanged [5].

Group 1 - Recent recovery in glass spot transaction volume, with some domestic regions achieving daily sales rates exceeding 200%, leading to a balanced inventory situation [1] - The production cost for coal-based glass production lines is approximately 1050 RMB/ton, while those using petroleum coke are around 1100 RMB/ton, indicating limited downside potential for current futures prices [1] - The current inventory structure shows a decline in market transaction activity, with downstream sectors focusing on inventory digestion, resulting in low purchasing demand [1] Group 2 - As of now, there are 286 float glass production lines in the country, with 221 in operation and a daily melting capacity of 157,405 tons, reflecting an industry capacity utilization rate of 80.50% [2] - The supply of glass has significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, placing current market supply at a near five-year low, while total demand has also declined [2] - The current glass spot prices have fallen below the production costs of most production lines, indicating potential for futures price rebound, although sustainability of such rebound remains weak [2]