文字早评 2025/04/21 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.11%，创指+0.27%，科创 50-0.81%，北证 50+1.97%，上证 50-0.08%，沪深 300+0.01%， 中证 500+0.07%，中证 1000-0.13%，中证 2000-0.20%，万得微盘-0.02%。两市合计成交 9147 亿，较上 一日-848 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、国常会：研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平 稳健康发展。 2、白宫将设工作组紧急处理对中国加征关税危机，特朗普称 1 个月内会与中国达成协议。 3、特朗普又喊话降息，白宫顾问承认在研究解雇鲍威尔。 资金面：融资额-87.08 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+2.60bp 至 1.6600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.10bp 至 3.0824%，十年期国债利率-0.27bp 至 1.6490%，信用利差+0.17bp 至 143bp；美国 10 年期利率+5.00bp 至 4.34%，中美利差-5.27bp 至-269bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.26，中证 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].