Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is experiencing significant volatility, while the bond market is on the rise. Investor sentiment is cautious, leading to a lack of clear direction in the market [2][7][10] - The A-share market has seen increased fluctuations, with multiple trading days showing swings exceeding 2%. This is attributed to the collective adjustment of commodity sectors like metals and gold, alongside heightened risk aversion as the year-end approaches [3][10][11] - The report suggests a "wait and see" approach, emphasizing the need for investors to remain cautious as the market seeks a clear leading trend amidst increased volatility and uncertainty due to the upcoming 10-day market closure [3][11] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing upward momentum due to dual external and internal factors, including the diversion of risk-averse funds from the equity and commodity markets, and a reduction in selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries as the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts [4][31] - Despite the short-term opportunities in the bond market, there are concerns about potential renewed pressure from the equity and commodity markets as the economy continues to recover [5][31] - The recommendation for bond market investment is to focus on short-duration bonds, which may perform better in the current environment of fluctuating interest rates and market conditions [5][31] Group 3 - The commodity market is under pressure, with significant declines led by precious metals, resulting in increased risk levels. Investors are advised to take profits amid heightened volatility, which may deter new external investments [38] - The long-term outlook for the commodity market remains positive, driven by economic recovery and supply-demand dynamics, particularly for gold, which is expected to maintain its upward trajectory [38] - Investment strategies for commodities suggest maintaining positions in gold while avoiding high-risk entries in metals and crude oil, with opportunities for long-term investments during price dips [38]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-10 全国动⼒煤普遍去库，化⼯延续震荡整 理 原油期货价格延续震荡整理态势，市场焦点依旧在于美伊和谈。彭博 报道，2月6日美伊双方在阿曼进行了初次谈判，美国总统表示会谈进行得 非常好，双方会谈将于本周继续进行。在地缘局势平息前，原油将延续震 荡整理。隆众数据显示，当前煤炭市场价格则受到低库存的支撑，周度看 全国各区域均环比去库，发运倒挂，煤炭价格春节前后维持坚挺的概率较 大。彭博报道，美国天然气期货周一延续跌势，天然气钻机数持续回升为 期价带来压力。 三大一次能源的震荡格局为化工带来一些支撑，化工产业链自身当前 矛盾并不很大。周一液体化工库存公布，隆众数据显示，2月9日当周苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比下滑11.18%，库存绝对值位于五年同期最低；纯苯港 口库存周度环比略增0.34%，纯苯当前依旧是五年同期最高的库存水平；C CF公布数据显示，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增加4.24%。乙二醇和纯苯的 累库属于季节性，苯乙烯的反季节性去库更凸显当前产业格局的健康，高 利润带来的远期开工的回升是隐忧。 原油：地缘溢价 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n 资产观点：国内权益市场的政策预期和额外流动性依然可以提供上⾏的 ⽀撑。国债整体中性，短端机会好于⻓端，但赔率有限。贵⾦属中的⻩⾦ 维持多头标配，⽩银暂时观望。有⾊⾦属在产业逻辑⽀撑下仍然向好，但 短期内市场挤压拥挤交易泡沫，待市场波动率降低同时，可抓住短期下跌 的机会逢低布局。⿊⾊商品整体偏震荡，原油或在地缘⽀撑下有所上⾏， 但不确定性较⼤，因此建议保持观望。 n ⻛险提⽰：地缘冲突加剧⻛险，关税冲突⼴泛升级，国内增量政策和经 济修复不及预期，美联储货币政策⼤幅偏离预期。 • 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前。 n 今⽇市场：根据Wind数据，今日国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属 涨幅居前，铂金涨10.58%；基本金属全部上涨，沪锡涨6.61%；非金属建 材全部上涨，玻璃涨0.56%；化工品跌幅居前，苯乙烯跌2.87%；农副产品 多数下跌，原木跌1.90%；黑色系全部下跌，硅铁跌1.44%；能源品全部下 跌，低硫燃料油跌1.22%；新能源材料多数下跌，工业硅跌0.82%；航运期 货全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌0.39%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆粕跌0. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。同时，美国冬 季风暴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission is proposing a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian crude oil to further weaken Russia's energy revenue and complicate its ability to find buyers for oil [1][3] Group 1: Sanctions Overview - The new sanctions plan includes adding 43 additional vessels to the "shadow fleet" list, bringing the total number of sanctioned vessels to 640 [3] - The EU aims to further restrict Russia's access to tankers for the "shadow fleet" and impose broad bans on services related to LNG transport and icebreaker maintenance to limit its natural gas export projects [3] - The sanctions also target the Russian financial system by proposing to sanction 20 regional banks and implement measures against cryptocurrency transactions to prevent evasion of sanctions [3] Group 2: Trade Restrictions - The EU plans to impose new export restrictions on goods and services to Russia, including rubber, tractors, and cybersecurity services, with a total value exceeding €360 million [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - According to the European Commission President, Russia's oil and gas revenue is projected to decline by 24% by 2025, reaching the lowest level since 2020 [3] - The revenue for January 2026 is expected to be the lowest since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 [3] - The proposed sanctions are expected to intensify pressure on the Russian economy and impact the global energy trade and shipping markets [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In January, the US manufacturing and services PMI exceeded expectations, indicating overall robust growth overseas [1] - In contrast, China's manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction territory, with both supply and demand components weakening compared to seasonal levels [1][10] - The price index has risen further, reflecting a rapid increase in upstream raw material prices, which is expected to suppress manufacturing supply and demand in the short term [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategies - Market risk appetite has declined, leading to weaker performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while bonds saw a slight increase [1][11] - The bond market experienced volatility, with the long end performing stronger due to a rebound logic and hedging demand, despite overall bond market gains falling short of expectations [1][10] - In the equity market, there is a potential for stabilization in risk appetite as volatility is digested, with a focus on high-yield assets and long-duration assets for value allocation [1][11] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The A-share market sentiment has weakened due to fluctuations in overseas markets, but there is potential for recovery in cyclical sectors and consumption as selling pressure from state-owned entities eases [11] - Small-cap and growth sectors may present good opportunities, with improved cost-effectiveness in growth stocks and a favorable calendar effect for small-cap stocks post-Spring Festival [11][12] - The Hong Kong market is currently in a phase of benefiting from liquidity, but its fundamentals remain weak, with the improvement of price levels by 2026 being crucial [12] Group 4: Commodity Insights - Recent geopolitical tensions have driven up gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand, although a subsequent drop occurred due to overheating in trading and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve [3][12] - Oil prices have been influenced by threats against Iran and cold weather, but significant improvements in the oil supply-demand fundamentals are still under observation [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Commodity price volatility has significantly increased, and risk prevention and control should be emphasized before the Spring Festival. The sharp decline in precious metals has triggered market panic and dragged down the overall commodity trend. The short - term event is a catalyst for the adjustment of over - bought or over - sold assets, but long - term de - leveraging or interest rate cuts have not been priced in. In the long run, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets, and the fundamental situation of precious metals and some metal varieties remains unchanged. However, due to the complex geopolitical environment and approaching Spring Festival, investors are advised to pay attention to risk prevention [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views - **Macro - situation**: This week, domestic commodities weakened significantly, with industrial products and agricultural products falling. Precious metals tumbled under the impact of the expectation of a hawkish Fed chairman, dragging down non - ferrous metals and overall commodity sentiment. The US manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply, but the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be observed. The eurozone's CPI continued to decline, and the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have increased, driving up international oil prices. In China, policies to promote consumption during the Spring Festival have been introduced, and the central bank's credit policy has shifted to support high - quality development [3]. - **Commodity views**: Commodity price volatility has increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metals was mainly due to profit - taking after over - heating in the early stage, and the increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, the market needs to digest policy uncertainties and de - leveraging pressure, and volatility may continue. In the long term, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets [3]. Part Two: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US**: The January ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations, indicating that the manufacturing industry is emerging from the contraction. However, the ADP employment data was disappointing, and the employment situation remains sluggish, increasing the urgency of further interest rate cuts [5][8]. - **Eurozone**: The January CPI dropped to 1.7%, the lowest since September 2024. The ECB is expected to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2%. Inflation shows significant regional and industry differentiation, and there are still potential price pressures [11]. - **Geopolitical**: Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with military confrontations in the Gulf region. The location and form of the nuclear talks have changed, and the risk of misjudgment has increased. Geopolitical risks have driven up oil prices, and the outcome of the talks will affect the energy market and financial markets [14]. - **Precious metals**: International gold and silver prices continued to plummet. The main reasons were the change in macro - policy expectations and the imbalance in the market trading structure. The increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, volatility may continue, but in the long term, the fundamentals of precious metals remain supported [17]. Part Three: Domestic Situation Analysis - **"Happy Shopping for Spring Festival"**: The "2026 'Happy Shopping for Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" focuses on creating a consumption ecosystem, with measures such as rewarding invoices, promoting trade - in, and providing financial support. 62.5 billion yuan in trade - in super - debt has been allocated to support holiday consumption [21]. - **2026 Credit Work Conference**: The central bank's credit policy has shifted to support long - term high - quality development, emphasizing stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, risk prevention, and coordinated efficiency. The policy aims to promote the stable and effective release of credit [22]. - **Policy - end**: The 2026 Central No. 1 Document focuses on agricultural and rural modernization, with changes in strategic positioning, poverty - alleviation mechanisms, and policy goals. The "Long - term Asset Input Tax Deduction Interim Measures" refines the VAT system, promoting economic high - quality development [24][25]. Part Four: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production end**: Chemical production load decreased slightly, with most product prices rising. Steel production increased slightly, but demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate [32]. - **Demand end**: Real estate sales decreased week - on - week, and passenger car retail sales decreased year - on - year [39]. - **Price trends**: Most food prices fell this week, including vegetables, pork, and fruits [40].

Group 1 - International precious metal prices rebounded, with gold futures and spot prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce [1] - Silver prices also returned to $80 per ounce, with significant daily increases in both gold and silver futures [1] - Factors supporting the rebound include a weaker dollar and investors buying on dips [1] Group 2 - Gold prices increased nearly 5% over the past week, influenced by signs of a slowing U.S. labor market and rising market risk aversion [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 50,000 points for the first time, driven by a rebound in some tech stocks [2] - Oil prices declined due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential disruptions to oil supply [2] Group 3 - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks continues, with a focus on software and data analysis companies amid concerns over AI technology replacing traditional services [2] - Major companies like Coca-Cola and McDonald's are set to release their latest earnings as the earnings season approaches its conclusion [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing US-Iran negotiations and sanctions impacting Iranian oil exports [2][3][35] - WTI crude oil for March closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 3.41% for the week, while Brent crude for April settled at $68.05 per barrel, down 2.48% [2][35] - The US has imposed sanctions on multiple entities and individuals related to Iranian oil trade, aiming to significantly reduce Iran's illegal oil and petrochemical exports [3][35] Group 2 - The EU is proposing a new round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a complete ban on maritime services for Russian oil and restrictions on LNG tanker services [3][35] - Venezuela's oil exports to the US surged threefold in January, reaching an average of 284,000 barrels per day, driven by relaxed US policies [4][36] - The US oil production has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, at 13.22 million barrels per day, due to severe winter storms [5][37] Group 3 - Domestic demand for refined oil has seen a price increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [6][38] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, with investors likely to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the holiday season [6][38] - The overall oil market is influenced by both geopolitical narratives and supply dynamics, with potential for significant price volatility [6][38]

连锁反应迅速蔓延至全球市场。 1月30日早盘，A股贵金属板块集体崩盘，中金黄金、湖南白银等个股跌 停；原油、铜价同步大跌，WTI原油日内跌幅达6%；甚至比特币也受牵连，单日暴跌超4%。 市场恐慌情 绪加剧，部分投资者为弥补贵金属损失，被迫抛售其他资产，引发跨市场流动性危机。 2026年1月29日深夜，国际黄金市场突然上演"高空跳水"。 现货黄金价格在1小时内暴跌440美元，接连跌破 5400、5300、5200美元三道关口，最终单日跌幅超12%，创下40年来最大单日跌幅。 与此同时，白银更是 惨烈，盘中暴跌35.89%，一度跌破80美元关口。 这场暴跌并非孤立事件，此前一周，金银价格刚经历一轮 疯狂上涨，黄金突破5500美元，白银冲上120美元，市场还沉浸在"牛市狂欢"中。 然而，杠杆资金的踩踏、 美联储主席提名的突发消息，以及程序化交易的连锁反应，瞬间将市场推向深渊。 有投资者形容："屏幕上 的K线像断崖一样垂直下落，无数人一夜归零甚至穿仓"。 这场暴跌的导火索是特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席。 沃什历来以"通胀鹰派"著称，市场担心其上任 后可能推迟降息甚至推动缩表，美元指数应声走强，直接压制了以美元计 ...