1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in policy will continue to boost the terminal demand for chemicals. The prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The OPEC+ will hold a monthly video conference on January 4th to plan the organization's future production, and the market generally expects it to maintain the decision of "suspending the production increase in the first quarter". Geopolitical situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine are short - term supports for oil prices. The Chinese government has advanced the issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade - in, which will significantly boost styrene [2]. - The supply and demand of the chemical industry have been flat recently, with no major contradictions, and the overall trend will be volatile. The PTA spot processing fee has increased, and the operating enthusiasm of PTA enterprises will rise. The processing fee of downstream polyester filament has dropped to a three - year low, and the industrial chain profit has shifted. The spot liquidity of polyolefin has tightened, and the futures price will move sideways. The rebound of styrene is not optimistic due to the drag of raw material pure benzene and high inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. API data shows that US crude oil and refined product inventories continued to accumulate in the week of December 26th, and the total inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products is rising against the seasonal trend. The geopolitical prospects in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations. The decline in Venezuela's shipments is not obvious for now, but its crude oil exports are expected to decline later. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rises following the increase in crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the asphalt futures price. If there is a substantial supply disruption in the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory is starting to accumulate [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Be vigilant about the positive support for fuel oil from Iran's suspension of natural gas supply to Iraq. Although there are factors that support the high - sulfur fuel oil price, such as the potential resumption of fuel oil power generation in Iran and Iraq, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and there are medium - and long - term double negatives [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates [4]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions have emerged again, and combined with capital rotation, the upward trend in the pre - holiday market may continue [4]. - **Urea**: There is concentrated pre - holiday procurement, and urea is expected to be in a consolidation state [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average [4]. - **PX**: The expected supply - demand pattern of PX has weakened, and the price has回调 after rising. International oil prices are strong, providing cost support. However, due to the market's focus on supply increase expectations, the price has回调 after rising, and the terminal has slowed down its procurement rhythm [12]. - **PTA**: The maintenance of polyester plants is gradually being implemented. The supply - demand of PTA has weakened marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost in the short term [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The callback is limited, the processing fee is under pressure, and the willingness to reduce production is increasing. The cost support is strong, but the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the processing fee is under pressure [24]. - **Bottle Chip**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. The price of polyester bottle chips fluctuates following the raw materials, and the short - term driving force is limited [26]. - **Propylene**: The CP price in January has been raised, and the PDH is expected to reduce its operating rate, so the PL has strengthened slightly [4]. - **PP**: The CP price has been raised, and PP has strengthened slightly [4]. - **Plastic**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the holiday, and plastic is expected to fluctuate. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the fundamental support for plastic has increased slightly, but the driving force for both long and short positions is relatively weak [31]. - **Styrene**: The short - term market is dominated by sentiment, and the sustainability of export transactions should be monitored. The cost support from pure benzene is weak, but there are positive factors such as export orders and market sentiment stimulation. However, the supply and demand situation is not optimistic, and the upside is restricted [18]. - **PVC**: Short - sellers take profits before the holiday, and PVC is mainly in a fluctuating state. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand expectation has improved, but the high - inventory pressure still exists [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply in the short term [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given, along with their latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists different varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [284]. - **Energy Index**: On December 30, 2025, the energy index was 1093.97, with a daily increase of 0.49%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.18%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.91% [286].

燃料油： 周二，上期所燃料油主力合约FU2603收平，报2473元/吨；低硫燃料油主力合约LU2603收跌0.23%，报 2977元/吨。我国2026年第一批低硫燃料油出口退税配额下发，数量为800万吨，与去年同期持平。从基 本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平，高硫燃料油市场则仍有支撑。新加坡预计在未来几周迎 来稳定的低硫燃料油调油组分到货，将持续增加当地现有的库存。亚洲低硫市场预计在1-2月都将保持 供应充足。高硫供应也相对充足，不过受安装脱硫塔的船舶数量增加的推动，下游船用油销售持续走 强，亚洲高硫燃料油市场继续获得一些支撑。短期FU和LU绝对价格或跟随油价波动，上周FU仓单再度 增加，或对盘面产生额外压力。 沥青： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 周二油价震荡回落，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌0.13美元至57.95美元/桶，跌幅0.22%。布伦特2月合约收 盘下跌0.02美元至61.92美元/桶，跌幅0.03%。SC2602合约夜盘收盘在437元/桶，下跌1.6元/桶，跌幅为 0.36%。受新年假期影响，美国能源服务公司贝克休斯本周提前三天发布能源企业活 ...

能源化工日报 2025-12-31 2025/12/31 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 0.50 元/桶，涨幅 0.11%，报 436.10 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 0.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.00%，报 2473.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 7.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.23%，报 2977.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 0.41 百万桶至 424.82 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；SPR 补库 0.80 百万桶至 412.97 百万桶，环比补库 0.19%；汽油库存累库 2.86 百万桶 至 228.49 百万桶，环比累库 1.27%；柴油库存累库 0.20 百万桶至 118.70 百万桶，环比累库 0.17%；燃料油库存累库 0.85 百万桶至 22.99 百万桶，环比累库 3.85%；航空煤油库存累库 1.32 百万桶至 44.89 百万桶，环比累库 3.02%。 刘洁文 甲醇、 ...

重要提醒 我们对权益相对乐观，建议 2026 年 1 月权益配置权重为 47.50% ： 超配 A 股（ 10.00% ），超配港股（ 10.00% ），超配美股（ 17.50% ），低配欧 股（ 2.50% ），标配日股（ 5.00% ），低配印股（ 2.50% ）。 权益资产中，（ 1 ）多重因素支持中国权益表现，建议超配 A/H 股。 经济工作会议临 近， 2026 年是十五五开局之年，预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积极。美联储 12 月如期降息，人民币稳定升值，为 2026 年初中国宽 松货币提供有利条件。改革提振中国市场风险偏好。 （ 2 ）"金发姑娘"背景渐显有利于美股表现，建议超配美股。 美国经济边际降温但韧性仍在，内生性通 胀粘性逐渐减弱，企业盈利预期或仍支撑美股中枢上行。 我们 对债券相对中性，建议 2026 年 1 月债券配置权重为 37.50% ： 长久期国债（ 10.00% ），短久期国债（ 10.00% ），长久期美债（ 7.50% ）， 短久期美债（ 10.00% ）。 债券资产中，（ 1 ）新年国债配置力量或进行博弈。 融资需求与信贷供给不平衡仍是客观现实，但风险偏 ...

2025年即将落下帷幕，你持有的资产获得了多少投资收益？ 全球股市普涨，中国资产表现亮眼贵金属迎史诗级行情 今年以来，全球股市呈现罕见的普涨格局。21财经·南财快讯记者梳理发现，从美洲到亚洲，从发达市场到新兴市场，主要股指 全数实现正收益。中国资产今年的表现甚是亮眼：截至12月30日，创业板指年内累计涨超51%，科创50指数涨幅达37.5%，在全 球主要股指涨幅排名中分别位列第二、第三。恒生指数、恒生科技指数也分别录得28.89%、24.85%的涨幅。高盛预测，到2027 年底中国股市仍有38%的上涨空间。 值得注意的是，这场由流动性宽松和增长预期驱动的资产价格上涨，并不仅限于权益市场，贵金属领域更是上演了史诗级的行 情。 今年12月，金价一度突破每盎司4500美元的历史新高，COMEX黄金期货年内涨超65%，黄金正经历自1979年以来表现最好的一 年。 中国科技类ETF获外资流入最多多家外资机构看好明年中国股市 2025年年初，DeepSeek R1推理大模型横空出世，中国科技惊艳世界，引发了全球市场对中国资产的广泛重估。 黄金的强势表现也带动了其他贵金属上涨。今年以来，铂金涨幅高达141.57%，钯金期货 ...

临近年末，市场交投清淡，全球主要股市进入窄幅盘整阶段，投资者正静待美联储12月货币政策会议纪要。金属市场呈现分化格局，黄金、白 银、铂金、铜、镍等上涨，钯金盘中触及跌停。 12月30日，美股指期货基本持平，欧股指多数下跌，亚股指涨跌互现。美元、美债基本持平，在岸人民币突破7关口。金属分化，白银反弹4%收 复部分失地，现货黄金涨超1%，伦铜涨近3%，钯金触及跌停。原油小幅回调，加密货币小幅上涨。 美联储12月货币政策会议纪要将于北京时间12月31日凌晨3点公布，此次会议纪要将为市场提供关于2026年利率路径的关键指引。在12月10日的议 息会议上，美联储决定降息25个基点，但内部意见呈现分化：两位政策制定者主张维持利率不变，另一位则支持更大幅度的50个基点降息。 根据12月发布的点阵图显示，多数政策制定者预计2026年仅会进行一次25个基点的降息，但个别成员的预测存在显著差异，反映出对经济前景判 断的不确定性。 核心市场走势如下： 道指期货涨0.01%，标普500指数期货涨0.01%，纳指期货跌0.02% 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘跌0.1%，德国DAX指数跌0.1%，英国富时100指数涨0.1%，法国CAC 40 ...

据央视财经，当地时间周一，贵金属市场再现剧烈波动。黄金、白银、钯金价格集体暴跌，其中白银期价创近五年来最大单日跌幅，钯金价格波动更为剧 烈，周一跌超16%。 29日美国三大股指集体收跌 29日欧洲三大股指涨跌不一 欧洲方面，多方正在推进的俄乌和平谈判主导市场情绪，美方称谈判已经进入"最后阶段"，俄乌"已经非常接近达成协议"。这些进展令欧洲多国的国防与 军工股承压下跌，因年末期间股市交投清淡，国防与军工股下跌导致部分国家股指微幅下跌，欧洲三大股指周一涨跌不一。截至收盘，英国股市微跌 0.04%，法国股市微涨0.10%，德国股市微涨0.05%。 29日国际油价显著上涨 原油市场方面，投资者预期俄罗斯石油重返国际市场仍需时日。此外，沙特近日对也门发动空袭，也在一定程度上引发了投资者对中东原油供应受到干扰 的担忧，以上因素推动国际油价周一显著上涨。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年2月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶58.08美元，涨幅为2.36%；明年2月 交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶61.94美元，涨幅为2.14%。 29日国际贵金属价格普遍大跌 白银期价创近五年来最大单日跌幅 贵金属方面，由于多个品种金属期货价 ...

29日美国三大股指集体收跌 当地时间周一，贵金属市场再现剧烈波动。黄金、白银、钯金价格集体暴跌，其中白银期价创近五年来最大单日跌幅，钯金价格波动更为剧烈，周一跌超 16%。 白银期价创近五年来最大单日跌幅 贵金属方面，由于多个品种金属期货价格近期快速攀升，为保障市场正常交易，芝商所集团宣布大幅上调金属期货履约保证金，新规自周一收盘后生效。 其中，黄金期货上调10%，白银期货上调约13.6%，铂金期货上调约23%。 周一，机构投资者在年末逐步进行仓位调整，重新审视AI行业明年的发展和盈利前景，美股科技股普遍承压走低，资金继续流向房地产和公用事业等周 期股和防御型股，美国三大股指周一集体收跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.51%，标普500指数跌0.35%，纳指跌0.50%。美股七大科技巨头中，特斯拉以3.27%的 跌幅领跌。周一有市场消息称，美国知名科技行业投资人凯茜·伍德旗下公司再次减持特斯拉股票，套现约3000万美元。 29日欧洲三大股指涨跌不一 欧洲方面，多方正在推进的俄乌和平谈判主导市场情绪，美方称谈判已经进入"最后阶段"，俄乌"已经非常接近达成协议"。这些进展令欧洲多国的国防与 军工股承压下跌，因年末期间股市交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to maintain an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - The uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US military strikes in Nigeria may impact the oil market. The increase in US oil inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also affect the oil price trend [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different energy and chemical products vary. For example, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil has some support; asphalt supply and demand are in a state of short - term stability and long - term uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose. WTI February contract closed up $1.34 to $58.08 per barrel, a 2.36% increase; Brent February contract closed up $1.30 to $61.94 per barrel, a 2.14% increase. SC2602 night - session closed at 436.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.3 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and military strikes in Nigeria raised concerns about supply, but the increase in US inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also had an impact. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, the market trading was light, and oil prices were expected to continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remained stable, and high - sulfur fuel oil had some support. Singapore was expected to receive more low - sulfur blending components, increasing local inventories. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU might follow the oil price, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts might put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The arrival of diluted asphalt in ports was stable in the short term, and domestic refinery raw material supply in January was not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Supply was expected to increase slightly at the end of the year but decrease in January. The demand in the southern region still had a tail - end effect, while in the north, it was mainly for stocking. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 prices declined on Monday. PX futures and spot prices also fell. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some polyester plants had device maintenance plans, and the MEG port inventory increased. The PX market was in a game between reality and expectation, and the ethylene glycol price was expected to oscillate after a rebound [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts declined. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The precipitation in the producing areas eased, and the peak - production season overseas had about one more month. The raw material price had some support, but the downstream tire demand weakened. The rubber price was expected to oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol spot prices in different regions were reported. The Iranian device shutdown would lead to a decline in arrivals in January, but the MTO device load also decreased. The port inventory increased as the unloading speed recovered. Methanol was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the prices of polyolefin products were given. The supply would remain at a high level, and the downstream demand was weakening. The polyolefin market was expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in different regions increased. The supply was at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand slowed down. The PVC market was a weak - reality and strong - expectation structure, and the price was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 29, 2025 and December 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in Florida to discuss a proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace agreement", but they did not reach an agreement on key issues such as territory and economic reconstruction. Russia planned to re - evaluate its position in the peace talks [10]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week. As of December 19, US crude inventory increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and the inventory at the Cushing delivery center increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. The refinery processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [12][13][14][18][20][22][25][26][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [29][34][35][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Price Spreads**: The report provides the price spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][49][51][53][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Price Spreads**: The report shows the price spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external market, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [57][59][68]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65].

能源化工期权 2025-12-30 能源化工期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...