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1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that more energy infrastructure has been damaged, and crude oil and chemicals continue to oscillate strongly. The geopolitical situation has expanded, with more energy infrastructure damaged, including the suspension of operations at the UAE's Shah gas field and disruptions at an Iraqi oil field and an important UAE port. The polyolefin industry shows a pattern of strong raw materials and weak products, which is also a microcosm of the current chemical chains. Crude oil is leading the chemical industry to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: There is a continued expectation of scarcity, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a large supply gap in the crude oil market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [3][6]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support has increased, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating widely. The geopolitical situation affects oil prices, and the profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated, with a large expected decline in refinery operations [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical support remains, and high - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating at a high level. Geopolitical tensions drive up prices, but in the medium and long term, the substitution of fuel oil power generation demand is a negative factor [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates at a high level. It is affected by factors such as shipping demand decline and green energy substitution, but currently has a relatively low valuation [9]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and methanol is oscillating within a range. The Iranian situation is severe, and the market tends to trade geopolitical premiums [23]. - **Urea**: Commercial reserves are being released in a concentrated manner, and urea is moderately weak. Supply is at a high level, and demand has some uncertainties [24]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in the load of oil - based plants is gradually reflected, and supply is expected to be significantly reduced. The cost is supported by high - priced crude oil, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve [16]. - **PX**: Under the contraction of total supply and structural concessions, the supply of PX is expected to be tight. The supply in the second quarter is tight, and attention should be paid to device changes and downstream price tolerance [11]. - **PTA**: Polyester production cuts put some pressure on PTA, but the cost support makes the price have strong downward support. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with mostly rigid - demand transactions. The price follows the upstream and oscillates strongly, with some support for processing fees [19]. - **Bottle Chips**: The intraday trading has become lighter, and the transaction price difference is large. The price follows the upstream raw materials and fluctuates, and the overall fundamentals are good [21]. - **Propylene**: The refinery operation rate is decreasing, and the downstream is still under pressure, with PL oscillating [30]. - **PP**: Supported by the raw material end, PP is oscillating. The raw materials have support, but the spot trading is average [29]. - **Plastic**: The refinery operation rate continues to decline slightly, and PE should be viewed with caution. The raw material end has support, but downstream demand is affected by price increases [28]. - **Styrene**: The supply and demand of styrene are favorable due to geopolitics, and styrene is oscillating strongly. Supply may be reduced, and there is an expected increase in exports [15]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. The reduction in production by chlor - alkali enterprises supports the market, but attention should be paid to the relief of upstream raw material supply [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is decreasing, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. The reduction in production by chlor - alkali enterprises supports the market, and exports are improving [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 4.31, change 0.14), Dubai (M1 - M2: 9.2, change - 0.4), etc. [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities, for example, asphalt (basis - 319, change 85, warehouse receipt 97880 tons) [36]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 170, change - 33), 1 - month TA - EG (1647, change 4) [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific detailed data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2591.86, with a change of - 0.61%; the commodity 20 index is 2926.66, with a change of - 0.58%; the industrial product index is 2565.21, with a change of - 0.51% [276]. - **Energy Index**: On March 17, 2026, the energy index was 1766.12, with a daily change of - 2.50%, a 5 - day change of + 12.07%, a 1 - month change of + 54.60%, and a year - to - date change of + 62.54% [278].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core View - Short - term oil prices will continue to run strongly but with high volatility. It is recommended to use options for hedging in operations [6] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $98.76, closing at $93.23, with a high of $99.95, a low of $91.82, a decline of 3.73%, and a trading volume of 36.39 million hands. Brent's opening price was $106.5, closing at $101.02, with a high of $106.5, a low of $99.54, a decline of 2.06%, and a trading volume of 46.78 million hands. SC's opening price was 735 yuan/barrel, closing at 761.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 777.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 713.9 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.19%, and a trading volume of 17.25 million hands. Overnight oil prices fell slightly as the US Treasury Secretary soothed the market and stated no intervention in the futures market [5] - **Operation Suggestions**: Due to the unrelieved Middle - East situation, with potential supply - side tensions and expected production cuts in the Middle - East, and the US's proposal to form a fleet for the Strait of Hormuz, short - term oil prices are strong but volatile. Options can be used for hedging [6] 4.2 Industry News - On March 17, Iran attacked a large - scale natural gas field in the UAE, causing a fire. The UAE government suspended related operations with no casualties. The UAE's Fujairah Port has suspended oil loading operations. Iraq's oil minister is in contact with Iran to allow some oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [7] 4.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, WTI and Oman spot prices, and US gasoline and diesel consumption [9][10][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices as it already incorporates current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions [3]. - For urea, suggest short - selling as the expected high - level production in the first quarter and the marginal impact of export quotas are considered. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [6]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and considering a hedging strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, expect short - term price rebounds but be cautious of risks due to factors such as cost increases and potential supply shortages [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, recommend staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and geopolitical factors cause large market fluctuations [18]. - For polyethylene, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [21]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [24]. - For PX, expect the valuation to rise as the load is expected to decline and the inventory is expected to decrease, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [27]. - For PTA, expect the processing fee to be difficult to rise and the PXN to have room for significant increase under the influence of geopolitical factors, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [30]. - For ethylene glycol, expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to turn into a de - stocking cycle. Be cautious of short - term over - increase [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 9.20 yuan/barrel, a 1.19% decline, at 761.20 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 19.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% decline, at 4771.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 5.00 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase, at 5641.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 8.00 yuan/ton, at 2847 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by - 216 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices as it already incorporates current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Hebei it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 8 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by - 22 yuan/ton, at 1878 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest short - selling as the expected high - level production in the first quarter and the marginal impact of export quotas are considered. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market changes rapidly. Bulls expect price increases due to macro expectations, seasonal factors, and demand expectations, while bears expect price decreases due to weak demand. As of March 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 68.64%, up 2.23 percentage points from last week and down 0.45 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 76.69%, up 3.17 percentage points from last week and down 6.11 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel exports to the Middle East slowed down, and there was concentrated export to the EU. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 tons, a 1.21% increase [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and considering a hedging strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 52 yuan, at 5901 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5730 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 171 (- 92) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 16 (+ 16) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.4%, up 0.2%. The downstream operating rate was 39.3%, up 3.5%. Factory inventory was 37.7 tons (- 8.1), and social inventory was 140.7 tons (+ 0.3) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect short - term price rebounds but be cautious of risks due to factors such as cost increases and potential supply shortages [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - end East China pure benzene price was 8390 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene active contract closing price was 8443 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 53 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase. The styrene spot price was 10150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase. The styrene active contract closing price was 10204 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The basis was - 54 yuan/ton, a 42 - yuan strengthening. The BZN spread was 47.5 yuan/ton, a 27.25 - yuan increase. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 58.1 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 71.79%, a 2.32% decrease. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.65 tons, a 0.91 - ton de - stocking. The demand - end three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and geopolitical factors cause large market fluctuations [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8496 yuan/ton, a 181 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 8375 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 121 yuan/ton, an 81 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 57.54 tons, a 3.92 - ton increase. The trader inventory was 5.00 tons, a 0.77 - ton de - stocking. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 294 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan decrease [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8671 yuan/ton, a 186 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a 125 - yuan increase. The basis was 29 yuan/ton, a 311 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 68 tons, a 2.49 - ton increase. The trader inventory was 20.61 tons, a 0.655 - ton de - stocking. The port inventory was 7.47 tons, a 0.67 - ton de - stocking. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 175 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The PP5 - 9 spread was 492 yuan/ton, a 59 - yuan decrease [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract decreased by 162 yuan, at 10018 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was 278 yuan (- 126). The Chinese PX load was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease. The Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease. Many domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease. In early March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 15.7 tons, a 1.8 - ton decrease year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 tons, a 1 - ton decrease month - on - month. The PXN was 229 dollars (+ 16), the South Korean PX - MX was 81 dollars (+ 11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 312 dollars (+ 14) [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the valuation to rise as the load is expected to decline and the inventory is expected to decrease, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 64 yuan, at 6918 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 248 yuan (- 44). The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 tons, a 2.6 - ton increase. The disk processing fee increased by 42 yuan, to 346 yuan [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the processing fee to be difficult to rise and the PXN to have room for significant increase under the influence of geopolitical factors, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 71 yuan, at 4826 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 67 yuan (- 15). The ethylene glycol load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase. The import arrival forecast was 15 tons, and the East China departure on March 16 was 1.06 tons. The port inventory was 101.1 tons, a 5.7 - ton de - stocking. The naphtha - based profit was - 2820 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1854 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1160 yuan. The cost - end ethylene rose to 1200 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price fell to 550 yuan [32][33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to turn into a de - stocking cycle. Be cautious of short - term over - increase [34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the ongoing US-Iran conflict has led to significant disruptions in oil supply, pushing WTI crude oil prices to stabilize around $100 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risk premiums rather than a reversal of long-term market fundamentals [2][4][22] - The article identifies three types of rigid supply interruptions caused by the conflict: physical disruptions in Iranian production, secondary reductions in output from neighboring Middle Eastern countries, and decreased shipping efficiency through the Strait of Hormuz [3][6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported a projected global oil supply reduction of approximately 8 million barrels per day due to the conflict, with a current supply-demand gap of about 9.3% of global daily consumption [4][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the historical context of oil price spikes, comparing the current situation to previous oil crises, indicating that the current geopolitical tensions could signify a fourth global energy crisis [3][19] - It highlights that the pricing of $100 per barrel is influenced by both actual supply disruptions and extreme geopolitical risk premiums, with approximately 17-19% of the price attributed to these risk factors [6][8][22] - The article emphasizes that the sustainability of high oil prices will depend on the duration and scale of supply interruptions, with a potential return to a more stable price range if disruptions are resolved within three months [20][22] Group 3 - The impact of high oil prices on the global economy is discussed, noting that a sustained price of $100 per barrel could lead to increased inflation rates, affecting consumer price indices (CPI) and limiting central banks' ability to maintain loose monetary policies [11][12] - The article outlines the structural changes in the oil and gas industry, where profits are expected to concentrate in upstream sectors, while midstream and downstream sectors face increased cost pressures [24][25] - It also mentions that the high oil prices will lead to significant sectoral differentiation in the stock market, with energy stocks likely outperforming while consumer and manufacturing sectors may struggle [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - China's economy had a good start in January - February 2026, and the stagflation narrative suppressed the gold price [1] - Pay attention to the tail - risk of the Iran situation, which mainly affects crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and may drive up oil - related industries and cause inflation concerns [1] - Focus on China's Two Sessions. During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index recovers after the sessions. The US February non - farm payrolls decreased unexpectedly, and China's economic data shows mixed performance [2] - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on stock index, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [2][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The Iran conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day "end - of - war" expectation of the US and Israel. The tail - risk has increased sharply, affecting energy and shipping sectors. The continuous rise in oil prices has driven oil - chemical and oil - and - fat sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners. The geopolitical situation remains volatile. There are also events related to Powell's case and the nomination of Wash [1] Attention to China's Two Sessions - The 2026 government work report sets the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [2] - During the Two Sessions, the A - share market has pressure but the decline is limited. After the sessions, the stock index strengthens, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] - China's economic data in February shows that the official manufacturing PMI is 49, non - manufacturing PMI is 49.5. Exports and imports in US dollars have double - digit growth. The growth rate of catering and upgraded products leads. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in January - February increases by 6.3%, while real estate investment and sales decline [2] Commodity Market - Short - term commodity fluctuations are mainly dominated by the Iran situation and oil prices. The non - positive correlation between the non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals, and oil prices is worthy of attention. The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves, but there may still be a supply gap [2] - The rise in oil prices drives oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol. Agricultural products' oil - and - fat sector is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices. The black - metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [2] Strategy - Go long on stock index, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [3] Important News - Trump said the US may quickly reach an agreement with Cuba after resolving the Iran issue [5] - The average urban surveyed unemployment rate in January - February is 5.3%, the same as the previous year. In February, the rate is 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month [5] - In January - February, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreases by 13.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreases by 20.2% [5] - In February, the year - on - year decline in the sales price of newly - built commercial housing in first - tier cities is 2.2%, and the month - on - month decline in first - tier cities turns flat. The decline in second - and third - tier cities narrows [5] - The US plans to announce the establishment of a "convoy alliance" for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says it will continue to defend and is willing to talk about the safety of ships passing through the strait [5] - On March 15, China and the US started economic and trade consultations in Paris [2][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a possibility judgment on the investment rating of various varieties, with a cautious bullish view on most varieties such as stock indices (IH, IF, IC), crude oil, methanol, etc., and a cautious bearish view on some varieties like rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore [5] Core View of the Report - Due to the expected alleviation of transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the anticipation of more countries releasing crude oil reserves, international oil prices have declined, easing inflation concerns and leading to a rise in the three major US stock indices. The market is gradually shifting from "expectation-driven" to "profit-driven", and long-term stock index trends will return to the domestic fundamentals and policies. Geopolitical risks have an impact on various commodity prices, and different varieties have different price trends and influencing factors [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day International News - On March 16, leaders of Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Canada issued a joint statement on the Lebanon situation, calling for the easing of the escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah and promoting a political negotiation to resolve the crisis [6] Domestic News - On March 16, the Shanghai branch of the People's Bank of China and the Shanghai regulatory bureau of the National Financial Regulatory Administration adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans in Shanghai to no less than 30% [7][8] Industry News - On March 16, the groundbreaking ceremony of the Global R & D Center (Headquarters) project of Ziehome was held in Zhengzhou. The project has a total investment of 400 million yuan and a total construction area of over 70,000 square meters, aiming to enhance the company's core competitiveness in the global home cross - border e - commerce field [9] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report shows the daily returns of various overseas market varieties from March 13 to March 16, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc., with different price changes and percentage changes [10] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Indices**: The three major US stock indices rebounded. The previous trading day, the stock index bottomed out and rebounded. With the disclosure of annual and first - quarter reports, the market will shift from "general rise" to "selecting alpha", and long - term trends will return to domestic fundamentals and policies [3][12][13] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to decline. Although short - term treasury bond futures are supported, long - term treasury bond futures are under pressure due to rising inflation expectations [14] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session declined. Due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [2][15] - **Methanol**: The methanol night session declined. The operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased, and the inventory in coastal areas increased [16] - **Rubber**: Rubber is in the low - production season. With stable demand and relatively independent price trends, the rubber price is expected to be volatile and bullish [17] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed up on Monday but declined significantly at night. The market is affected by the international oil price and macro factors, and the future trend depends on the actual operating conditions of the plants [18] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures declined slightly. There is inventory pressure in both industries, and they should be rationally dealt with in the face of macro - influence [20] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated at night. In the long term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to multiple factors [21] - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the copper price may fluctuate in the short term [22] - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The supply of zinc concentrates is temporarily tight, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [23] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell at night. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the supply risk of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East is increasing, and the long - term low inventory and stable demand provide support for the price [24] Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The supply pressure of coking coal is increasing, and the rigid demand is weakening, but the future trend is not overly pessimistic [25] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The night session of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans is lower than the same period, and the price is supported by supply uncertainties [2][26] - **Oils and Fats**: The night session of oils and fats was weak. The de - stocking of Malaysian palm oil was lower than expected, and the price may be affected by geopolitical conflicts [27] - **Hogs**: The national hog market is in a weak and stable state, with a large year - on - year decline in price, and the market is expected to be stable with local narrow - range adjustments [28] - **Sugar**: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar declined slightly at night. The short - term raw sugar will oscillate, and the domestic sugar price is affected by the external market [29] - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased in position and rose at night. With the implementation of the import quota policy and tight supply - demand expectations, the cotton price may rise in the long term [30][31] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 4.03%. The main logic of the European line is gradually returning to supply - demand pricing, and the freight rate is expected to enter an oscillating upward channel [32]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The market is pricing in the possibility of a sustained high - oil - price environment, increasing concerns about economic stagflation in the US in Q1. The overseas macro logic may shift from "soft landing" expectations driven by looser liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the transition from "inflation" to "stagflation". Although inflation data is favorable for stronger rate - cut expectations, rising oil prices make short - term policy paths more cautious [1] - Domestic macro: After the important meeting, the domestic macro situation enters the verification period of fundamental reality. This week's domestic data on exports, inflation, and finance are relatively good, increasing the probability of a "good start" in Q1. Exports have a strong start, core CPI continues to strengthen, PPI recovery rate is high, and corporate medium - and long - term loans provide significant support. The focus is on the repair progress of domestic demand investment, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [1] - Asset views: Investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term and control the investment portfolio position. The previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals is downgraded to equal - weight, and TS and TF are relatively recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Morning Meeting Summary - **Financial sector**: Stock index futures show resilience throughout the day, with short - term judgment of oscillation; stock index options focus on call option defense, with short - term judgment of oscillation; treasury bond futures are disturbed by inflation concerns, with short - term judgment of oscillation [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver prices are affected by rising oil prices suppressing rate - cut expectations, with short - term judgment of oscillation [4] - **Shipping**: The traffic volume of ships in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and the short - term judgment of container shipping on the European line is weakly oscillating [4] - **Black building materials**: There is a game between reality and expectations, mainly in an oscillating state. For example, steel has cost support, iron ore's shipping and arrival rhythm fluctuate, and coke and coking coal have different supply - demand situations [4] - **Non - ferrous and new materials**: Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and basic metals continue to oscillate. For example, copper prices are under pressure due to the rising US dollar index, and aluminum prices are strongly oscillating due to supply disturbances [4] - **Energy and chemicals**: Gulf oil - producing countries continue to cut production, and crude oil and chemicals remain at a high level and oscillate. For example, crude oil has a shortage expectation, and LPG supply is tightening [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Palm oil leads the rise in oils, and double - meal is adjusted at a high level. For example, corn futures are consolidating at a high level, and pig prices are weakening [5] 3.2 Financial Market Price Changes - **Stock indices**: On March 16, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are different [7] - **Treasury bonds**: The price changes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided, as well as the price changes of the US dollar index, US dollar intermediate price, etc. [7] 3.3 CITIC Industry Index Price Changes - On March 16, 2026, different industries in the CITIC industry index have different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes, such as the rise of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry and the decline of the non - ferrous metal industry [8][9] 3.4 Overseas Commodity Price Changes - On March 13, 2026, energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products in overseas commodities have different price changes. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil has a significant increase, while COMEX gold has a decline [10][11] 3.5 Domestic Main Commodity Price Changes - On March 16, 2026, shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products in domestic commodities have different price changes. For example, the container shipping on the European line has a decline, while crude oil has a significant increase [12][13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type price difference before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits on rallies [4]. - For urea, short on rallies. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. - For rubber, the market expectation fluctuates more than the fundamentals. Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Consider opening or holding a long position in NR main contract and a short position in RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, in the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will mainly rebound, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [22]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to continue to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation of oil - chemical is at a historical low, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 12.40 yuan/barrel, or 1.65%, to 765.50 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 86.00 yuan/ton, or 1.81%, to 4848.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 122.00 yuan/ton, or 2.18%, to 5729.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type price difference before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 25 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 65 yuan/ton, in Henan by 20 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 25 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 31.00 yuan/ton to 2837 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 158 yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits on rallies [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hubei, and Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Hebei, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 11 yuan/ton to 1900 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market is trading on the expectation and realization of refinery shutdowns. There may be a second - wave market due to the supply reduction of ethylene and aromatics downstream. The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls and bears have different views. The long - position holders of natural rubber RU believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, the seasonality usually turns positive in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The short - position holders believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. As of March 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 68.64%, up 2.23 percentage points from last week and down 0.45 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 76.69%, up 3.17 percentage points from last week and down 6.11 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel exports to the Middle East slowed down, and there was concentrated export to the EU. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons, or 1.21%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 93.8 million tons, an increase of 1.32%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.36 million tons to 69.01 million tons. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 15500 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 2000 (- 40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 2010 (- 30) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 15400 (- 300) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 14700 (- 200) yuan [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market expectation fluctuates more than the fundamentals. Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Consider opening or holding a long position in NR main contract and a short position in RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 125 yuan to 5849 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5800 (+ 130) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 5) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 0 (+ 18) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1150 (+ 150) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 682 (+ 12) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; among them, the calcium - carbide method was 82.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; the ethylene method was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.6%. The overall downstream operating rate was 39.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The in - factory inventory was 37.7 million tons (- 8.1), and the social inventory was 140.7 million tons (+ 0.3) [14]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will mainly rebound, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 8455 yuan/ton, an increase of 245 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8451 yuan/ton, an increase of 245 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 10146 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton; the basis was 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 20.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated plant profit of EB was - 229.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 83.55 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.79%, a decrease of 2.32%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.91 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, an increase of 10.34%; the PS operating rate was 51.50%, an increase of 2.10%; the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, an increase of 46.59%; the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8677 yuan/ton, an increase of 261 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8475 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 57.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92 million tons, and the inventory of traders was 5.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 305 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 34 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8857 yuan/ton, an increase of 254 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8575 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was - 282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 229 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49 million tons, the inventory of traders was 20.61 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45.87%, a month - on - month increase of 9.13%. The LL - PP spread was - 180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 551 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 162 yuan to 10180 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 404 yuan (+ 38). The Chinese PX load was 84.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%; the Asian load was 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.3%. Many domestic and overseas devices had load - reduction or shutdown. The PTA load was 77.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in early March were 15.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 million tons. The PXN was 213 US dollars (- 115), the South Korean PX - MX was 70 US dollars (- 14), and the naphtha cracking spread was 298 US dollars (+ 67) [26]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 48 yuan to 6982 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 292 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 77.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. The downstream load was 86.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 million tons. The processing fee on the disk decreased by 58 yuan to 304 yuan [28]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 168 yuan to 4897 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 82 yuan (+ 17). The ethylene glycol load was 66.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%, among which the synthetic - gas method was 74.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%; the ethylene - based load was 62.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6%. Many domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or load - reduction. The downstream load was 86.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the departure from East China ports on March 15 was 1.16 million tons. The port inventory was 101.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 3059 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1810 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1160 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1150 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 550 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to continue to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation of oil - chemical is at a historical low, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential investment opportunities in various sectors amid rising concerns of "stagflation" in overseas economies, suggesting a focus on upstream resource products, essential consumer goods, and sectors benefiting from government policies and technological advancements [5]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - In the event of stagflation, upstream resource products such as oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products are recommended as core holdings [5]. - Essential consumer sectors including food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and essential retail are highlighted as stable investment options [5]. - The article suggests exploring hard technology sectors like semiconductors, aerospace, high-end equipment manufacturing, and AI computing as flexible investment choices, alongside traditional and new infrastructure related to government spending [5]. Group 2: Market Performance - The article notes that the domestic equity market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.51% [6]. - New energy-themed funds outperformed, with a net value increase of 4.22%, while other sector-themed funds experienced declines [6]. - The issuance of public funds, particularly FOF products, has been robust, with 30 new funds established, including 7 FOF funds [6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The article mentions that oriented silicon steel prices have increased for the first time since October 12, 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in metal prices [7]. - The construction materials sector is experiencing significant price increases, with a focus on traditional materials and new materials, particularly in the fiberglass and electronic fabric segments [9]. - The disposable glove industry is expected to see price increases, benefiting domestic leading companies due to cost control and market share expansion [10].