Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in glass futures prices, which rose nearly 3% after a period of decline, raises questions among investors about whether this is a temporary rebound or a sign of a reversal in trend [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The continuous decline in glass futures prices was primarily due to an imbalance in supply and demand, with weak terminal demand persisting throughout the year and failing to meet expectations during the traditional peak season [3]. - As of November 17, the average order days for deep processing sample enterprises across the country was only 9.9 days, indicating weak demand [3]. - High inventory levels are a significant factor suppressing prices, with national float glass factory inventories reported at 63.30 million weight boxes, significantly higher than the same period last year [3]. Market Conditions - In the spot market, prices in major production areas have been continuously adjusted downward, with prices in Hubei ranging from 990 to 1040 yuan per ton and in the Shahe area from 1020 to 1080 yuan per ton [4]. - The high inventory and weak demand conditions have made glass futures an attractive option for market shorts, leading to a situation where the 2601 contract experienced increased short positions and subsequent price declines [4]. Factors Influencing Price Rebound - The recent price rebound is attributed to multiple factors, including changes in supply expectations, valuation corrections, and policy anticipations [4]. - Expectations of production line cold repairs in December and an unexpected shutdown of a production line in Hubei have led to speculation about tightening supply, prompting some shorts to cover their positions [4]. - Last week, a production line with a capacity of 600 tons per day underwent cold repairs, resulting in a week-on-week reduction of 0.38 million tons in glass production [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the glass futures market is characterized by significant divergence between bullish and bearish sentiments, with price fluctuations occurring near critical levels [4]. - The upcoming national urban renewal work promotion meeting on November 21 is expected to release policy signals that could boost market confidence [4]. - Despite the short-term rebound in glass futures prices, many analysts believe this is likely a rebound rather than a reversal, with two core variables to monitor: the extent of supply contraction and the strength of demand recovery [5]. Trading Strategies - The 2601 contract is currently at a relatively low level, suggesting limited downside potential and natural valuation recovery dynamics [5]. - Market participants are advised to consider shifting positions from the 2601 contract to the 2605 contract due to high inventory pressures [6]. - Companies are encouraged to use glass futures to hedge against price volatility and improve liquidity management [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is entering the traditional storage season in Q4 2025, with improved market sentiment supported by concentrated storage demand, steady export activities, and a rebound in the compound fertilizer industry, leading to a gradual decrease in urea inventories [1] Group 1: Production Dynamics - Urea production capacity utilization remains at 83.91%, slightly down by 0.17 percentage points month-on-month but up by 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Daily production stabilizes at a high level of 202,900 tons, ensuring overall supply remains sufficient [2] - Localized supply disruptions due to maintenance and upgrades at certain companies are offset by the resumption of production at others, maintaining regional supply stability [2] Group 2: Demand Release - Urea's absolute valuation is currently in a relatively reasonable range, with storage and fertilizer demand gradually being released, providing price support [3] - Storage progress in various regions is ahead of previous years, with significant completion rates reported in areas like Shandong and Guangxi [3] Group 3: Compound Fertilizer Industry - The compound fertilizer industry's operating rate has increased, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating improved production and sales rates [4] - The utilization rate for compound fertilizer production is at 34.61%, up by 4.29 percentage points month-on-month [4] Group 4: Export Activities - Exports have played a crucial role in balancing the urea supply-demand equation, with cumulative exports exceeding 4 million tons by October 2025 [5] - October's export volume reached approximately 1.2 million tons, significantly surpassing market expectations [5] - The latest pricing data indicates a favorable market outlook, with port inventories rising and domestic urea inventories decreasing by 46,400 tons week-on-week [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Multiple favorable factors, including storage demand, export activities, and a rebound in compound fertilizer production, are supporting market sentiment [5] - The high daily production levels may exert some pressure on market prices, with regional price differentiation expected [5]

本报讯（记者 杨美）国内成品油价迎来年内第十次下调。据国家发展改革委网站最新消息，自11月24 日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低70元和65元。折合成升价，92号汽油、95 号汽油及0号柴油分别下调0.05元、0.06元、0.06元。 卓创资讯数据监测模型显示，本次成品油价下调后，消费者用油成本有所降低。油箱容量在50升的小型 私家车加满一箱油将比此前少花2.5元左右。国内多数地区92号汽油将进入"6元时代"。 原油需求侧整体呈现增速放缓、内部分化的格局。黄柳楠表示，因美国经济数据疲软，全球原油需求增 长预期下调，但增速仍高于2024年。炼油环节成为关键瓶颈，全球炼厂开工率因计划检修、意外停产及 制裁导致的物流问题大幅下滑。与之相反，成品油需求结构性强劲，由于柴油和航空煤油库存处于低 位、工业运输需求旺盛及俄罗斯油品供应中断，裂解价差飙升至多年以来高位。 展望后期油价走势，黄柳楠预计，今年年底到明年年初，Brent、WTI原油价格或考验4月前低，甚至可 能考验50美元/桶，上海原油期价跌幅或小于外盘。建议关注宏观预期潜在反转，届时油价波动或放 大。 卓创资讯成品油分析师曹莹莹表示，俄乌 ...

近期，国际原油市场多空因素交织，整体呈现复杂震荡格局。展望后市，俄乌局势的演变仍是影响油市的关键变量，若双方达成停 战协议，俄罗斯原油供应约束放松，将加大全球原油供应过剩压力，油价将面临进一步调整风险。 受此影响，市场对美联储降息预期迅速降温。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员对12月降息25个基点的概率预测从48.9%降至 32.7%。美元指数随之显著走强，突破100整数关口，美债收益率也同步上行，对以美元计价的国际原油等大宗商品价格构成压 制。 三大机构月报强化供应过剩预期 11月中旬，美国能源信息署（EIA）、国际能源署（IEA）和石油输出国组织（OPEC）相继发布最新月度报告。尽管各机构对原油 需求增速的判断仍存差异，但在供给持续增长这一基本判断上已形成共识。 美元走强压制大宗商品价格走势 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国劳工统计局宣布，因部分关键数据无法正常采集，将不再单独发布10月非农就业报告，原定于12月5 日发布的11月报告推迟至12月16日公布。这意味着美联储在年内最后一次政策决策前，将完全缺失10月以来的关键就业数据支撑， 就业数据空窗期的延长进一步加剧了货币政策的不确定性，并显著提升美联 ...

"目前机构依然处于结账排名期，面临锁定收益或提前对来年景气板块进行布局两种选择，这意味着本 月剩余时间市场博弈会加大。"陈畅表示，11月21日晚间，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示近期有降息空 间，美股反弹，这意味着外部因素对A股的扰动减弱，但市场情绪修复需要时间，预计短期指数层面将 呈现震荡筑底态势，建议投资者密切关注地缘局势变化对市场风险偏好的影响。 近期，上证综指从4000点回落，创业板等指数同步调整。分析人士表示，A股及股指市场此轮回调是受 内外因素共振的影响。 "11月国内金融数据公布，货币总量增速下滑，市场担心宏观流动性不会进一步支撑股市上行。近期多 只连板龙头股因股价异常波动被交易所要求停牌核查，市场风险偏好下降。此外，前期中芯国际季报也 未能支撑股价上涨，英伟达业绩超预期未消除市场对科技股前景的疑虑，美股下跌拖累A股科技板块下 行。近期锂电池板块快速上涨后开始调整。宁德时代A股和H股股东减持，股价下行影响股指表现。多 重因素导致市场出现较为明显的回调。"银河期货研究所股指分析师孙锋表示。 由于今年A股表现良好，机构积累了较多浮盈。"随着重要会议、中美磋商、美联储议息会议、A股三季 报等靴子落地，市场驱 ...

Core Insights - In 2024, Guotai Junan Risk Management successfully addressed cross-regional supply chain challenges for Weiteou New Materials through an "invisible transfer" strategy, ensuring production continuity and mutual benefits for both parties [1] Group 1: Company Operations - Weiteou New Materials, a leading enterprise in the electronic chemicals industry in Shenzhen, specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of microelectronic soldering materials [1] - The company required the disposal of 22 tons of warehouse receipts located in East China, prompting Guotai Junan Risk Management to form a specialized team to design a warehouse receipt exchange solution [1] - The warehouse receipt exchange mechanism aims to optimize resource allocation, enhance supply chain efficiency, reduce costs, and manage risks for enterprises [1] Group 2: Transaction Details - After analyzing Weiteou New Materials' needs, Guotai Junan Risk Management identified 200 tons of "Yunheng" brand tin ingots from Yunnan as a suitable match, leading to the signing of two purchase and sales contracts [2] - The exchange allowed 22 tons of tin ingots to be "moved" from East China to Shenzhen without actual logistics, optimizing inventory at a low cost and high efficiency for Weiteou New Materials [2] - Guotai Junan Risk Management was able to exchange the "Yunheng" tin ingots, which had a premium of 300 yuan/ton, for "YT" brand tin ingots with a premium of 800 yuan/ton, achieving a win-win outcome [2] Group 3: Market Context and Future Implications - The increasing participation of industrial clients in futures delivery has led to some mismatches in warehouse receipt resources, highlighting the ongoing demand for resource optimization in the market [3] - Guotai Junan Risk Management's expertise in futures and spot business enables effective assistance for terminal enterprises in optimizing warehouse receipts [3] - The successful implementation of this project serves as a strong support for promoting the warehouse receipt exchange model and aligns with the newly released rules by the China Futures Association, which recognize exchange trade as a solution for managing price volatility risks and stabilizing operations [3]

Economic Overview - The A-share market has shown a decline in sectors such as energy metals, power equipment, and electronics, while defensive sectors like agriculture, home appliances, and banking have performed relatively better [1] - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 14.7% [2] - Industrial production has slowed down, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% for the first ten months, and a drop to 4.9% in October compared to the previous month [2] Financial Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a decrease of 280 billion compared to the same month last year, while the social financing scale increased by 816.1 billion, down by 595.9 billion year-on-year [3] - M2 growth has slowed to 8.2%, down from 8.4%, and M1 growth has decreased to 6.2%, reflecting a cautious approach from enterprises towards investment [3] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have raised concerns about persistent inflation, leading to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts in December [4] - The domestic economic data has shown a downward trend, suggesting that the stock index may enter a phase of adjustment in the short term [4]

上述负责人介绍，操作风险是期货公司运营的核心风险之一，常由流程漏洞、人员行为失范及系统安全 缺陷引发。为此，期货公司应探索风险控制自我评估、关键风险指标、损失数据收集等三大工具协同应 用，从而促进工具之间的有效互补，充分发挥工具之间互为线索的优势，逐步实现操作风险预警、监 测、识别与整改的闭环管理。 与会人士一致表示，大商所近年来在优化业务机制、强化市场监管、拓展服务工具等方面持续探索，充 分发挥了金融基础设施在市场健康发展中的核心作用。希望大商所多举办类似活动，提升会员服务能 力，进一步助力期货公司运营标准化、高效化与透明化建设。 大商所相关工作人员表示，大商所将坚持以服务实体经济为导向，完善市场基础设施，提升风险管理水 平，吸引更多市场主体参与，与期货公司携手共同构建规范、开放、有活力的期货生态，为经济高质量 发展注入稳健的金融动力。 银河期货结算及风险控制中心负责人分享了期货公司业务运营风险防控要点与实操经验。以银河期货为 例，公司构建由董事会负最终责任，经营管理层直接领导，涵盖公司各部门的全面风险管理组织架构， 按照"三道防线"的原则明确风险管理职责：由业务部门、职能部门及分支机构承担一线责任，风险管 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has launched a pricing section for aluminum products on its comprehensive business platform, specifically for the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center [1][2] - Guangxi is a significant production base for aluminum in China, with a complete industrial chain from bauxite to recycled aluminum [1] - The Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center aims to enhance trading channels and risk management for local aluminum enterprises [2] Group 1 - The initial quoted products include alumina, aluminum ingots, aluminum rods, and casting aluminum alloys, with designated delivery warehouses across Guangxi and Guangdong [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center has achieved a total transaction volume of 7.51 million tons and has 857 registered users [1] - The trading center facilitates the connection between the regional spot market and SHFE's aluminum futures market, allowing enterprises to reference futures prices for better pricing strategies [2] Group 2 - The SHFE has already launched 20 types of standard warehouse receipt trading and is focused on integrating futures and spot markets to support high-quality economic development [2] - The collaboration between SHFE and the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center is expected to enhance the financial services available to the aluminum industry [2]

刘慧峰则认为，虽然近期基本面走弱，但焦煤价格不具备继续深跌的条件。本轮价格下跌的过程中上游 虽有累库，但总库存不升反降，煤矿、港口和下游焦煤总库存连续两周回落。同时，下游钢厂及焦化厂 库存虽处于近3年高位，但根据以往历史数据来看，未来的两个月依然有一定的冬储补库空间。另外， 动力煤日耗持续回升，各主产区安监力度也持续加大，年底之前煤炭供应大概率呈现收缩格局。未来两 个月建议进一步关注煤炭市场供应变化以及铁水产量。 进入11月，焦煤期货价格急转直下，走出一波"倒V"行情。截至11月20日收盘，焦煤2601合约自10月31 日的高点累计下跌205元/吨，跌幅为15.55%。 （文章来源：期货日报） 广发期货黑色首席分析师周敏波认为，焦煤期货价格持续下跌的主要原因是现货价格出现松动，市场担 忧煤价见顶回落。上周价格下跌的煤炭品种增加，蒙煤价格也随之下跌，累计下跌160元/吨左右。 此外，焦化企业提涨节奏较为滞后，导致焦化行业利润急剧下降、开工率下滑。截至11月13日，钢联统 计的全样本独立焦化企业及247家样本钢厂焦炭产量为108.9万吨/日，较10月初的高点112.62万吨/日下 滑3.72万吨/日。 在刘慧峰看 ...