欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 出口的坚韧与国内精炼铜消费的强劲可以形成相互验证，这种情况可能在 5 月份仍会有所持续，因此短期内国内精炼铜预计仍将维 持较强的去库格局，从而对价格、升水、月差带来较为明显的支撑，同时近期国内政治局会议也强调了政策对低价格的指引需求，这 也从一定程度上相当于为工业品划定了底线思维 。 1、上周金铜窄幅震荡 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 2,5 2%，白银 上涨 2.18%；沪金2506合约 上涨 0 .77%，沪银2506 合约下跌 0 .17%。主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-0.93%、+0.3%。 2、贸易谈判延续，风险偏好回升 上周宏观方面较为平静，缺乏重要经济数据指引，同时美国的贸易谈判仍在开展，美国已经率先同英国达成贸易协定，并且 也已经与中国代表在瑞士展开谈判，所以整体宏观情绪较为平静，同时上周的美国初请失业金人数也出现下降，劳动力市场 短期内仍然稳固，市场急于定价美国经济衰退或者复苏都是不太合理的交易，因此价格本身的表现也较为平静。周末中美贸 易代表在瑞士的谈判结果对短期市场的走强可能有较强的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing gold-silver ratio, indicating that gold retains its monetary attributes more strongly than silver, which has a more pronounced commodity nature [1][5][6] - The gold-silver ratio has historically fluctuated, with significant increases observed during economic downturns, particularly in the 1980s and post-2008 financial crisis [2][3][6] - The recent rise in the gold-silver ratio is attributed to concerns over a potential U.S. economic recession, alongside the stronger monetary characteristics of gold compared to silver [5][6] Group 2 - The global silver supply is projected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, with an expected increase of around 480 tons in 2025, primarily driven by mining output [11] - Silver's supply is increasingly influenced by by-products from copper and lead-zinc mining, with a notable portion of silver production coming from these sources [13][17] - The demand for silver is categorized into industrial, jewelry, and investment needs, with industrial demand expected to grow by about 4% in 2024, particularly driven by the solar energy sector [19][20] Group 3 - Speculative demand plays a crucial role in the pricing of precious metals, with gold being favored over silver during times of economic uncertainty [28][30] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs often correlates with significant price increases, highlighting the impact of speculative trading on gold prices [30] - The Basel III regulations have enhanced the status of physical gold as a reserve asset for central banks, contributing to increased gold purchases and further supporting its price [32][33]

昨日河北某厂项目被调查，叠加阿联酋全球铝业（EGA）采矿许可证被取消，两大利多 消息的接连发布带动氧化铝全线上涨。本轮反弹是消息面与基本面的共同作用。我们对 两方面分别详细分析，首先是某大厂消息面扰动了市场情绪，二是近端基本面的供需改 善，库存去化。最后，就该厂新增产能是否清退，分别进行情景假设，最终得出观点： 我们认为，近端受检修及消息影响，盘面出现了反弹，在事件未明朗之前偏观望对待， 长期来看供需过剩格局未改。 昨日，河北某氧化铝厂的新闻扰动了品种市场，氧化铝主力合约在两个交易日内最高反 弹5.8%。该如何看待反弹？氧化铝格局就此转变了吗？ 图1：氧化铝2509合约走势图 以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者有色组 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 数据来源：紫金天风期货研究所 01 大厂消息面搅动了市场情绪 昨日，一则关于下游大厂的新闻报道影响了盘面，目前消息尚无定论，仍在等待结果。该厂 年内计划投产氧化铝共计480万吨，分成3条产线，第一条产线已出料。第二条产线原先预 计在近期投成， ...

文 | 紫金天风期货研究所 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 从过去几年的大宗商品利润分布图可以看出，2016年大宗商品利润集中分布于下游，随着产能周期的变化，至2023年，利润结构发生明显变 化，上游几乎占据全部利润，而当前利润又呈现重新向下游倾斜的趋势。 为此，我们整理了现阶段大宗商品的利润分布情况，具体如下图所示，供投资者参考。 数据来源: 禁金天风期货研究所 交易理想国 扫码领取优惠券 仅限前 30 名 2025/05/01 12:00 至 2025/05/09 12:00 100 Cj知识量班 | | | 交易理想国昌求和群特供:期货&全球宏观交易全流程辅助工具&报告 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 工具表格或报告 | 目的 | 使用难度 | 使用说明 | 是否需连接外部数据源 | | 研究阶段 | 《中国期货市场品种波动属性》 《中国宏观价值相对套利》 | 协助用户观察期货各品种不同频度下的波动 协助用户观察宏观视角下各套利对品种的交 | 较易 进阶 | 待上新 待上新 | 否 | | | | ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC商品策略研究 CFC商品策略研究 . Sell in May的预言并未完全兑现，美国1季度GDP创下三年最低，但服务业PMI和就业数据或存在托底，风偏回归。笔者仍旧坚持"浅衰退+高利 率"之下，商品的反弹有限，以至于空头等反弹的布局仍旧是占优逻辑。 几点归纳： 1、美国2025年第一季度GDP下降0.3%，为三年来首次收缩，但美国风险偏好强势回归（美国股市大多反弹3%），其驱动在于ISM制造业指 数再度低迷但超预期（公布值48.7，预期47.9），此外非农就业虽超预期增长17.7万人，暗示美国经济内生动力尚未全面恶化。目前处在"增 长放缓但未全面衰退"的过渡期，短期内硬数据韧性延缓恐慌情绪，但关税引发的供应链扰动、成本上升及政策不确定性可能加剧二季度下行 风险。 2、风偏回暖促成"铜金比价"的阶段性修复，2025年全年降息幅度预期为3次，首次降息时点或推迟至6月或7月（5月8日利率决议）。4月非 农韧性阶段性证伪"深度衰退"叙事，强化"浅衰退+高利率"组合对贵金属的压制。随后跌破3300美元关键心理关口，引发趋势跟随性抛盘。 但若经济数据证实衰退深化且通胀回落，黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent monetary policy changes in China, particularly focusing on the dual interest rate cuts announced by the central bank and their effects on investment and economic dynamics. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank announced a reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.50% to 1.40% effective May 8, 2025 [1] - Additionally, the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points, with a more significant reduction of 5 percentage points for auto finance and leasing companies starting May 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Bond Market Reactions - Despite the rate cuts, long-term bond yields have not decreased; instead, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose by nearly 2 basis points to 1.64% [5] - The central bank's previous announcement of a 600 billion MLF operation resulted in a net injection of 500 billion, equivalent to a 25 basis point reserve requirement cut, yet long-term yields remained stable [8][12] Group 3: Investment Curve Dynamics - The article explains the concept of the investment curve's elasticity, indicating that when the savings curve expands due to rate cuts, the increase in investment is minimal if the investment curve is steep [17] - Conversely, if the investment curve is flat, a significant increase in investment occurs with a smaller decrease in long-term yields, indicating a more elastic investment response [19] Group 4: Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand is influenced by both consumption and investment, with lower interest rates potentially suppressing consumption while promoting investment [22] - The article posits that if the investment curve lacks elasticity, lowering interest rates may not stimulate domestic demand, leading to increased exports instead [20][28] Group 5: Government's Investment Focus - The government is portrayed as an "investment-oriented" entity, actively working to repair the elasticity of the investment curve through various policies [36][37] - The article suggests that the government prefers investment over consumption, especially in scenarios where there is ample investment space [26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of rapid price fluctuations in commodities, particularly gold, and how these fluctuations attract attention and lead to significant market reactions. It proposes a physical explanation for this behavior by exploring the hidden factor of price change rate and its impact on market dynamics [3][4][41]. Group 1: Price Volatility and Market Reactions - Rapid price movements in commodities, such as gold, generate significant public interest and commentary from various market participants [3][5]. - High price change rates are equivalent to high volatility, which tends to converge to a stable range over time [7][9]. - The article illustrates that when implied volatility spikes, it often leads to increased market activity, particularly in shorting volatility strategies [9][17]. Group 2: Shorting Volatility Strategies - One common method to short volatility is through straddles, which involve selling both a put and a call option at the same strike price [12][21]. - The effectiveness of shorting volatility is highlighted by the potential for profit when the underlying asset's price remains within a certain range [13][16]. - The article emphasizes that during periods of high volatility, traders can capitalize on the eventual return to lower volatility environments, thus profiting from the price differences [16][17]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies - The article discusses alternative strategies for shorting volatility, such as selling calls during price surges and selling puts during price drops, which allows traders to take advantage of market sentiment [23][27]. - It notes that these strategies carry a speculative nature, as they involve betting against prevailing market trends [28][29]. - The relationship between volatility and price movements is explored, indicating that volatility can influence price direction, particularly during rapid market movements [32][35]. Group 4: Implications for Trend Traders - The article warns trend traders to be cautious of extreme market movements, as rapid price changes can lead to temporary reversals due to the influx of arbitrage capital [37][40]. - It explains that understanding volatility can help traders anticipate market corrections following sharp price movements [40][41]. - The conclusion suggests that the alignment of volatility thresholds with market commentary can create a feedback loop, influencing price movements in unexpected ways [41][42].

以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者广发期货研究所 今日行情 今日硅铁及锰硅大幅下跌，盘面增仓，截止收盘，硅铁主力合约对前一交易日收盘价下跌3.43%，最终收于5398元/吨，锰硅主力合约对前一交易 日收盘价下跌3.34%，最终收于5560元/吨。现货方面，工厂基本封盘不报，观望情绪浓，6517锰硅北方市场价格在5550-5650元/吨，南方市场价 格5550-5650元/；72硅铁自然块现金含税出厂5400-5500元/吨左右，75硅铁价格报6000-6050元/吨左右。 4月宁夏结算电价大幅下调，合金成本下移 今日盘面大跌，系宁夏4月电价结算，整体电价水平环比降幅在0.02-0.06元/度，电价集中在0.34-0.41元/度。一方面，宁夏在4月开展电力 现货市场第五次结算试运行工作，4月1日至4月30日开展实际结算；另一方面，宁夏生产厂家受需求相对疲软、供应偏高影响，4月纷纷开 展避峰生产，平电及峰电购电量下行，电力整体供需宽松，叠加现货市场试运营，致使电价下滑。由于厂家生产情况的差异，4月不同厂家 结算电价差异也较大，若按照电价下调0.02-0.06元/度水平来看，硅铁成本端将下移160-480元/吨不等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The western apple-producing regions are facing the most severe drought in nearly a decade, compounded by extreme weather conditions including high temperatures and strong winds, which have significantly impacted pollination and fruit set rates [1][42]. Group 1: Drought and Weather Impact - The western regions have experienced a rare combination of "heat, drought, and wind," leading to poor pollination and fertilization of apple blossoms, which are primarily dependent on insect pollinators [1][20]. - From April 10 to 14, the regions faced high temperatures and strong winds, which coincided with the peak flowering period, resulting in a low fruit set rate due to adverse weather conditions [1][26]. - The drought conditions have led to insufficient tree nutrition, further exacerbating the low fruit set rates observed this season [1][22]. Group 2: Production Survey Findings - A survey conducted over six days across 246 orchards revealed significant production declines: approximately 50% in Shaanxi, 50% in Shanxi, and 30-40% in Gansu due to the adverse weather during the flowering period [2][43]. - The survey indicated that the expected production levels have deteriorated rapidly, with initial optimistic forecasts being revised downwards within a week [2][29]. - The current situation is unique as it represents a significant reduction in fruit set during a critical period, contrasting with previous years where frost damage was often recoverable [2][44]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - Current spot prices for apples are at their highest levels in six years, driven by low inventory levels and a mismatch between market expectations and reality [3][38]. - The inventory structure is notably different from previous years, with fewer large holders, indicating that the supply is tight as the new season approaches [3][44]. - The price for new season apples is expected to remain strong, with a low likelihood of falling below 4 yuan per jin, potentially reaching historical highs due to the anticipated production shortfall [3][39]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - Historical data shows that years with production declines often lead to higher opening prices for the new season's apples, with the current year expected to follow this trend due to significant reductions in expected yield [4][45]. - The analysis suggests that the new season's average opening price could challenge historical highs, particularly given the current strong spot market performance and the expected quality issues in the upcoming harvest [4][45].

文 | 对冲研投编辑组 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 信息来源 | 鹰眼快讯 五一小长假即将结束，假期间全球金融市场发生了哪些重要事件？跟着对冲研投内容团队 一起复盘假期外盘行情，回顾国内外重要资讯及数据，为明天的开盘做充足的准备吧！ 常规数据资讯监控请点击 文末 "阅读原文" 进入鹰眼快讯产品 10Y美债收益率上涨14.1基点，报4.315%。 3. 外汇市场： 美元指数回升。 美元指数冲高回落，假期间一度站上 100，随后涨幅收窄，累计上涨0.51%， 报99.7 2 。人民币汇率上升，日元贬值。 4.大宗商品： OPEC+ 6月大幅增产，美油跌超6 % ，布油下破 60美元/桶；农产品 涨跌互现，马棕油跌 2.78%，美棉涨超3%；贵金属跌超2%。 WTI原油下跌6.03%至56.12美元/桶，Brent原油下 跌5. 46 %至59.2美元/桶。农产品涨跌互现，马棕油跌2.78 % ，美麦涨超 4%，美棉涨超 现在 来跟我们一起做全球宏观 &大宗商品的开盘准备吧！ $${\begin{array}{r l}{{\boxed{0,1}}}&{{}\to{\underset{\lambda\in ...