文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 上周 目前国内的一些利多因素也已经被近期的价格运行消化，无论是前期的降准降息，还是 4月出口数据保持韧性，抑或是贸易谈 判的进展，都没有让市场变得持续亢奋。市场对后续宏观的走弱还是有比较大的担忧。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 1、上周金价承压，铜价盘整 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金下跌 3 .72%，白银 下跌 1.37%；沪金2508合约 下跌 4.64%，沪银2508 合约下跌 1.09%。主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-1.34%、+0.89%。 2、 市场更加担忧潜在利空 上周宏观方面较为积极，中美贸易谈判取得超出大部分市场参与者的预期，并且双方后续在一些关键问题上还有进一步缓和 的空间。同时，美国宏观数据仍然表现出韧性，并且鲍威尔在讲话中明确指出后续联储的政策框架可能发生调整，不在锚定 2%的长期通胀目标，这意味着下半年降息的约束实际上有所放松。不过从市场的反映来看，目前价格对宏观方面的利多叙事 并不敏感，市场可能更倾向于交易一些潜在利空。 3、黄金继续承压 上周中美谈判结果大幅好于市场预期，两国关税较前期显著下行，同时海外地缘冲 ...

以下文章来源于大地期货研究院 ，作者刘慧华 大地期货研究院 . 大地期货研究院官方订阅号 观点小结 仓储：被定义为"对库存产品的临时保管，以备后续分发"，通常被用作存储的同 义词。存储只是仓储流程中的一个环节，即商品暂时静态存储的阶段。 仓储单元 ：为储存产品而建造或改造的建筑物或设施，这些建筑物或设施分为 :( i ) 常规仓库、 (ii) 结构仓库和充气仓库、 (iii) 散货仓库； iv) 散装化仓库； ( 五 ) 筒仓； e 、 vi) 袋装筒仓。 巴西仓储数据源：国家供应公司（ Conab ）维护和管理的全国仓储单位登记系统 （ SICARM ） ；由巴西地理统计局（ IBGE ）每半年开展一次的 库存调查 ；以 及 IBGE 每十年进行一次的 农业普查 ，其最近一次是在 2017 年。 2024 年静态容量：约 2.1-2.2 亿吨。 SICARM 显示， 89.3% 为散装货物的容 量； IBGE 显示，筒仓占比 49% ，散货型和散货化占比 34% 。 2017 年农业普查仓储分类：筒仓占比 60% ，传统仓库占 23% 。 88.8% 的仓 库属于农业经营单位所有。 粮农组织建议 一个国家的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the US remains, with significant implications from the recent tariff policies that could lead to retaliatory measures from trade partners, negatively impacting both the US and global economic growth while potentially increasing inflation in the long term [1][2]. Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The current US GDP growth rate is stable at over 2%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a relatively healthy economy [19]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement 5-6 rate cuts by the end of 2025, although there is a possibility of accelerating these cuts to stimulate the economy [19]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The recent US tariff policies are more aggressive than previous rounds, raising concerns about their potential to cool down the global economy [2]. - Historical data shows that previous tariff increases have led to significant declines in both imports and exports, as seen during the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which resulted in a 66% drop in US imports from 1930 to 1933 [22]. Group 3: China Economic Performance - China's economy showed resilience in the first quarter, but the likelihood of a slowdown in the second quarter has increased, suggesting a cautious outlook for the year [3]. - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, indicating a stable but cautious economic strategy [26]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The performance of various metals since May indicates a mixed response to tariff announcements, with gold and silver prices declining by 3.9% and 1.3% respectively, while aluminum and tin saw increases of 1.7% and 1.8% [9]. - The volatility in the commodity market is expected to decrease in the second quarter, reflecting a more stable trading environment [31]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Industry Dynamics - Close attention is required on supply-side disruptions that could affect commodity pricing and availability [5]. - The influence of precious metals on the pricing dynamics of the non-ferrous sector is a critical area for monitoring [4].

CFC商品策略研究 . 以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC油脂油料研究 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带 到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 石丽红 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 24/25产季，国内花生现货价格仅在国庆后出现一轮上涨行情，随后长期进入僵持阶段。自新季花生上市至今，主流产区通货米价格在3.95- 4.25元/斤范围内波动，尤其是年后基本围绕4.1元/斤关口小范围起伏。市场目前对僵持局面存在几点疑惑：供需为何长期僵持？产区是否还存 在"抛压"？当前价格是否对新季播种积极性有影响？为此我们走入东北产区，开展实地调研，总结成果如下： 供需为何长期僵持：需求走弱，但单产不达预期导致成本抬升 24/25年度，国内需求市场整体疲软，尤其是食品米走货持续偏慢。据产业反馈，2025年春节后80天内兴城红崖子集散地累计走货数量 下降20%左右，黑山、阜新、昌图均有下滑。需求疲弱导致各渠道环节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the structural forces driving global changes, rather than being distracted by short-term events that cause market volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Structural Forces Driving Global Change - Five major forces are currently shaping the evolution of the global landscape: 1) Debt and monetary systems, which are core variables affecting markets and economies [3][4] 2) Domestic wealth disparity and value division, which are reshaping political dynamics [3][8] 3) The process of international order/disorder, determining the evolution of global governance [3][9] 4) Natural forces, including droughts, floods, and pandemics, which are increasingly impacting economies [3][10] 5) Human innovation, particularly rapid technological advancements, which can bring both benefits and risks [3][11]. Group 2: Debt and Monetary System - The current high levels of government debt and deficits in the U.S. and other countries will primarily dictate future market and economic directions, rather than daily policy choices by leaders [4][5]. - The accumulation of debt will force governments to either raise taxes or increase debt monetization, both of which will have profound impacts on the market [5][6]. - The ability to attract capital inflows and create win-win situations will significantly help alleviate the current situation, contingent on management capabilities [6][7]. Group 3: Domestic Wealth Disparity and Value Division - The trend of wealth disparity has evolved into a structurally irreconcilable conflict, leading to the rise of populism and authoritarian politics, undermining democratic institutions and the rule of law [8][9]. Group 4: International Order - The current global landscape lacks a single dominant power, with many countries led by populist leaders favoring unilateralism, increasing the risks of geopolitical, trade, technological, and military conflicts [9]. Group 5: Natural Forces and Technological Innovation - The worsening of natural factors is leading to higher economic and real costs, with effective responses becoming a key indicator of national governance capabilities [10]. - Rapid technological innovation is enhancing human capabilities but also poses significant risks, marking a critical juncture for monetary, political, and international order [11][12]. Group 6: Recommendations - All short-term news should be viewed within the context of the five major forces shaping the long-term landscape, particularly regarding monetary, political, and international order [15]. - The current situation is on the brink of significant change, with the key being whether these transformations can be managed intelligently and collaboratively [16]. - In investment, a systematic framework is essential, including effective asset diversification, to avoid reactive strategies in response to news or market fluctuations [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in tariffs on rubber and tire imports to the United States, highlighting that while tariffs on certain Chinese tires remain unchanged, other products have seen a reduction in tariffs, which may have limited impact on the overall market due to low export volumes from China [2][5]. Tariff Modifications - Tariffs on Chinese passenger car and light truck tires remain at 25%, while other Chinese tires have been reduced to 10% (with a 24% rate paused for 90 days) [2][3]. - For Southeast Asian tires, tariffs remain unchanged at 25% for passenger and light truck tires, and 0% for other types [2]. Impact on Rubber Products - The reduction in tariffs for Chinese rubber products is down to 10% from a previous 24% [3]. - The actual volume of Chinese tires exported to the U.S. is low, with only 310,000 tons expected in 2024, translating to a mere 50,000 tons of rubber, indicating that tariff changes may not significantly affect rubber consumption [4]. Market Reactions and Expectations - The market has experienced a decline of 2,000 points, primarily driven by recession expectations and long positions being liquidated, rather than the direct impact of the 232 tariff [5][9]. - There is a noted decrease in bullish sentiment due to changes in underlying market logic, with supply exceeding market expectations [5][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply from major rubber-producing countries like Thailand and Indonesia has shown a year-on-year increase of over 10%, contradicting previous expectations of supply constraints [11]. - The article suggests that the basic logic of a long-term supply-demand gap may need to be reassessed based on current supply data [10]. U.S. Demand and Economic Indicators - U.S. freight demand has been weak, with cargo volumes near historical lows, which correlates with overall economic performance and PMI levels [18]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor terminal demand changes and how companies respond to tariff impacts, as these factors will influence inventory cycles [18]. International Tire Manufacturers' Perspectives - Major international tire manufacturers, such as Goodyear and Michelin, have expressed concerns about increased costs due to tariffs, estimating potential annual costs of $300 million, which they plan to pass on to consumers [29][32]. - There is an expectation that the effects of tariffs on tire imports may not be fully realized until the third quarter of the year [30]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment among international tire manufacturers is pessimistic regarding the impact of trade wars on tire and automotive demand, with expectations of reduced production in North America [32][33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positive impact of easing trade tensions between the US and China on the shipping industry, highlighting a rebound in shipping indices and expectations for improved demand and pricing in the maritime sector [2][3]. Short-term Logic - Trade easing and the initiation of a replenishment cycle are expected to support freight rates during the peak season in Europe and the US [2]. - The increase in freight rates on US routes has been confirmed, while the extent of increases on European routes remains uncertain [2]. - Strategy suggests holding long positions in peak season contracts, with a reduction in positions if prices stagnate [2]. Macro Events Driving Shipping Index - High-level talks between the US and China on tariff issues led to significant progress, boosting market optimism and resulting in a strong rebound in shipping indices [3]. - The US announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs on Chinese goods, which is expected to stimulate trade volumes and improve short-term shipping demand [3]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Supply side: The trade war has led to a significant drop in cargo volumes on US routes, with a notable number of sailings canceled. However, the reduction in tariffs is expected to lead to a quick recovery in cargo volumes [7][8]. - Demand side: The adjustment of tariffs is anticipated to increase bilateral trade volumes, with US importers likely to ramp up orders from China during the 90-day suspension period [8]. - Seasonal patterns indicate that European industrial goods replenishment typically occurs in May and June, which may further enhance demand [8]. Freight Rate Dynamics - Following the tariff reductions, shipping companies have begun to raise freight rates in anticipation of increased demand, with specific rate hikes already announced [9]. - The article notes that while the US routes are seeing immediate benefits, the European routes have not yet shown significant increases in cargo volumes, leading to skepticism about the sustainability of price increases [9]. Medium to Long-term Analysis - Despite a temporary easing of tariff tensions, structural issues in US-China trade relations remain, posing ongoing challenges for the shipping market [10]. - The success of shipping companies' pricing strategies during the peak season will be crucial for freight rates and the overall shipping index [10]. - The strategy suggests being cautious about chasing high prices and looking for opportunities in specific contract spreads [10].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector experienced a collective rise, driven primarily by substantial progress in US-China trade negotiations, which exceeded market expectations [2] Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector saw significant increases, with styrene leading the way with a limit-up of 5.99%, followed by butadiene rubber at 5.85%, PX at 2.82%, and PP at only 1.29% [1] - Styrene's price increase was supported by a favorable supply-demand situation, with port inventory decreasing to 56,700 tons, which is 11.82% lower than the same period last year [2] - Butadiene rubber's price surge was influenced by macroeconomic improvements and supply disruptions from a factory's equipment failure, leading to a spike in raw material prices [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - PX faced production cuts due to compressed margins, while downstream PTA processing fees improved, delaying some maintenance schedules and leading to increased production [3] - Polypropylene's performance was hindered by significant inventory accumulation and weakened supply-demand dynamics, limiting its rebound potential [4] Group 3: Future Outlook for the Chemical Sector - Despite the short-term strength in the chemical sector, there are concerns about the sustainability of these gains due to potential OPEC+ production increases and limited fundamental support for most chemical products [5] - Styrene's price increase may face challenges from high downstream inventory levels and weak supply-demand conditions for pure benzene, limiting its rebound potential [5] - The easing of US-China tariff issues may lead to a temporary inventory replenishment in the polyester sector, but seasonal demand weaknesses and production pressures remain [5]

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者有色组 紫金天风期货研究所 . 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 核心逻辑 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 众所周知，所有大宗商品各品种的供需平衡均为基础。当一个品种供应过剩且表现较为明显的情况下，该品种的成本估值即成为价格的 有力支持，而当一个品种供应明显短缺的情况下，成本估值仅作为参考依据且明显失效。 我们按照当下有色金属以及黑色、能化种挑选较为代表性的品种，其中有色作为全品种考量对象，黑色挑选铁矿作为观察品种，能化挑 选原油作为观察品种，以单品种过剩占比来衡量该品种在未来3-5年内表现强弱（即过剩量级/产量），以及是否采用成本估值计价。 （负数为短缺，正数为过剩，数值大小代表过剩或短缺具体情况） 其中，对于铜品种而言，考虑铜定价更多倾向于粗炼平衡（详见铜二季度报），故铜品种过剩占比选取粗炼及全口径两个平衡用以参 照，粗铜与粗锌过剩占比作为标的对比；同时，铝、镍品种由于定价及利润的特殊性，不同于其他有色金属，故未选取铝土矿及红土镍 矿成本作为参照，仅选取电解铝及镍中间品作为矿端成本参照物；另外，考虑铅品种市场参与基本以产业链居多，故 ...

来源 | CFC商品策略研究 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 从商品对于事件的定价反馈来看，敏感度优先级按照预期反转程度（航运）+估值程度（油化工，棉花，橡胶）等展开多头排序。 空头侧形成: a.由经贸关系缓和叠加印巴地缘阶段性解除形成的黄金利空定价； b.多国多边关系或存在系统性改善的可能，进而形成基于关税逻辑的升水回吐，蛋白粕阶段性偏弱； c.国内经济前景回暖，股指和债券定价显著分化。 1、后续贸易缓和的重要线索： 政策端双方非关税反制措施的逐步解除、贸易端美国订单的修复、转口贸易的变化，以及其他国家的 贸易谈判基准变化； 2、后续贸易谈判的判断： 鉴于格里尔仍坚持美国贸易逆差的表达，此前我国与美国谈判形成的"依靠购入美国农产品、能源缩减对 美逆差"的路径依然适用。但需要注意的是随着我国机电产品等对美输出比例攀升，后续逆差可能难以通过此方式收敛。对于非关税 反制措施，我国或留有调整空间，暂缓部分稀土、对美实体制裁等措施，但仍需要观察美方态度。此外，4月初美国针对我国800美元 以下低价值货物的关税征收尚未解除，观察后续的政策动向。 事件：2025年5月12日下午，中美联合发布"日内 ...