Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market risks are primarily stemming from the U.S., particularly due to Trump's erratic policies, which have increased economic friction. The dollar is expected to weaken, and this trend will gain more recognition over time, while U.S. stocks remain high [1][29]. - Recent developments indicate that tariffs are showing signs of improvement, as a U.S. trade court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, leading to a significant surge in U.S. stocks [9][10]. - The A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are becoming safe-haven assets, with capital flowing into the Hong Kong market, evidenced by a dramatic drop in Hibor rates from 4 to near 0 [2][25]. Group 2 - The volatility in the market has been heightened due to geopolitical tensions and tariff-related shocks, with the VIX index experiencing its fastest rise in history [6][11]. - Despite a slowing fundamental backdrop, liquidity is returning to the Hong Kong market, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may reach new highs in the second half of the year [2][28]. - The dollar's current account deficit has reached unprecedented levels, indicating a likely continued weakening of the dollar, which is shifting from a safe-haven to a risk asset [18][20]. Group 3 - The relationship between A-shares and precious metals like gold and silver has evolved, with A-shares now reflecting safe-haven characteristics, particularly in the context of recent market downturns [21][22]. - The influx of capital into the Hong Kong market is significant, with a notable increase in the monetary base, suggesting a robust liquidity environment that could support further market gains [25][27]. - The market's response to the potential resolution of tariff issues could positively impact inflation expectations, as the worst-case scenarios may already be priced in [11][12].

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔、张云杰 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 邵翔 关云杰 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 特朗普正在为前期的"一意孤行"付出代价。 百日新政之后，贸易谈判不顺利，俄乌和谈频繁打脸，美债压力居高不下，今天美国国际 贸易法院再来"背刺"一刀，要求撤销滥用《国际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）而落地的关税。对此，我们回答几个问题： 效力如何？ 法律判决的规格不低。 美国国际贸易法院属于美国联邦法院，法官需要总统任命、国会通过。该法院依据美国宪法第三条设立，位于纽约 市，具有全国范围的管辖权。主要审理关税、进口税、贸易壁垒等纠纷，并审查与贸易法规相关的行政决定。 上升到宪法和分权的高度。 用MAGA擅长的宏观叙事和"国本"问题反制特朗普，确实稳准狠：税收权力归国会，这是西方民主国家的重要 制度基础之一；总统在贸易关税上"独断"的权力过大，威胁到美国分权的传统。 其实今年美国国会已经有所动作。4月参议院提出两党法案《2025贸易审查法案》，旨在限制总统单方面征收关税的权力，但由于共和党 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank's report on commodity cycles post-COVID-19 indicates a significant shift in the frequency and volatility of commodity price cycles, suggesting a new era in commodity market dynamics [1][42]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Over the past 55 years, 27 types of commodities have experienced an average of 14 turning points, approximately every four years [37]. - The average duration of booms is 38 months, while recessions last an average of 52 months, indicating that recessions tend to last longer than booms [29][37]. - The average amplitude of price changes during booms and recessions is roughly similar, suggesting symmetrical price volatility [29][37]. Group 2: Historical Price Fluctuations - The study identifies three distinct periods of commodity price fluctuations: 1970-1985, 1986-2001, and 2002-2024, each characterized by different dynamics and influencing factors [8][12][41]. - The first period (1970-1985) was marked by significant volatility due to supply shocks, particularly in the energy market, with an average boom duration of 31 months and a longer recession period [8][12]. - The second period (1986-2001) exhibited more stability, with longer average durations for both booms (47 months) and recessions (56 months), attributed to technological advancements and market liberalization [12][41]. - The third period (2002 onwards) saw a resurgence in volatility driven by demand shocks from emerging markets, with shorter average durations for both booms (35 months) and recessions (46 months) [13][41]. Group 3: Post-Pandemic Commodity Behavior - Since 2020, the average duration of boom phases has decreased to 24 months, and recession durations have halved to 23 months, indicating a significant compression of the commodity cycle [16][42]. - The amplitude of price increases during booms has intensified, averaging 113%, while the severity of price declines during recessions has decreased to 79% [17][42]. - Various factors, including macroeconomic shocks, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related disruptions, have contributed to the observed deviations from historical commodity price patterns [17][19][42]. Group 4: Long-Term Trends and Structural Changes - The global energy transition is driving sustained demand for key minerals like lithium, copper, and nickel, exerting upward pressure on their prices [19][20]. - Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are heightening supply risks, particularly for agricultural commodities, which remain highly sensitive to climate conditions [19][20]. - The slowdown of global integration has led to increased geopolitical fragmentation, marked by trade barriers and sanctions, which disrupt commodity markets and contribute to price volatility [20][42].

Group 1 - The article discusses the definition and classification of pure benzene, highlighting its significance as a basic petrochemical raw material and its carcinogenic properties [2][8]. - Pure benzene is categorized into two types: petroleum benzene and coking benzene, with distinct production processes and quality standards [5][8]. - The quality standards for petroleum benzene and coking benzene are specified, including purity levels and allowable impurities [6][7]. Group 2 - The production processes for pure benzene include reforming, cracking, and toluene disproportionation, with various sources contributing to its supply [11][12]. - The global pure benzene production capacity is projected to reach 83.31 million tons by 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [29]. - China’s pure benzene capacity is expected to be 25.73 million tons by 2024, with a growth rate of 6.9% [31]. Group 3 - China is a net importer of pure benzene, with imports expected to reach 3.768 million tons in 2024, a 31.1% increase year-on-year [40]. - The global demand for pure benzene is projected to be 65.2 million tons in 2024, with Northeast Asia being the primary consumption region [45]. - In China, pure benzene consumption exceeds 25 million tons, with major downstream products including styrene and caprolactam [50][51].

文 | 江 露 来 源 | C F C 金 属 研 究 编 辑 | 杨 兰 审 核 | 浦 电 路 交 易 员 正 文 | 黄金 | 白银 | 铜 | 铝 | 氧化铝 | 锌 | 镇 | 锡 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 27. 0% | 9.3% | 4.9% | -1.5% | -35. 6% | -12. 8% | -0.7% | 6.7% | | 碳酸锂 | 工业研 | 多晶硅 | 硅铁/锰硅 | 螺纹钢 | 热卷 | 煤焦 | 铁矿石 | | -15. 2% | -24. 1% | -15. 4% | -12. 4%/- 5.3% | -8.2% | -7.4% | -23.9%/- 19. 4% | -10. 7% | 2.1 宏观展望:康波视角下当前周期判断 ◆ 目前已步入萧条:衰退时点为2009年,萧条转换点在2019年 图表:康波周期的划分 | 康波 | 繁荣 | 裹退 | 萧条 | 复苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一轮(纺织工业和 | 1782~1802 | 181 ...

Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand dynamics indicate a continuation of a loose market environment, characterized by increased production and imports against weak demand and high inventory levels. Price expectations suggest that rubber prices may continue to fluctuate downwards, with a potential further contraction in the RU-NR price spread [1][25]. Supply Side - From January to April, China's natural rubber production increased by 26.15% year-on-year, currently in a seasonal growth phase. However, frequent rainfall in domestic production areas has delayed the concentration of raw material supply, leading to strong raw material prices as processing plants rush to collect materials. Improvement in weather conditions is anticipated to alleviate the tight supply situation [4]. - In early May, Thailand announced a one-month delay in tapping, but production has since resumed, with a year-on-year increase of 4.39% from January to April. Vietnam's production also saw a year-on-year increase of 2.10% during the same period. Although initial raw material output is slow due to weather disturbances, entering the peak production season may strengthen raw material supply expectations [4]. Demand Side - As of May 22, the operating rate for semi-steel tires was 73.74%, up 2.53% month-on-month but down 6.35% year-on-year. The operating rate for all-steel tires was 62.09%, up 2.21% month-on-month but down 4.11% year-on-year. The decline in rubber prices has led to increased caution among downstream producers, with only essential purchases being maintained. Despite a slight increase in production and sales of passenger vehicles, overall demand growth remains slow, and tire companies are facing high finished product inventories, which may lead to a downward adjustment in future operating rates [15][25]. - According to customs data, tire export figures for April showed a month-on-month decline, with all-steel tire exports down 5.43% and semi-steel tire exports down 10.39%. Although previous US-China negotiations had a positive impact on the market, strict tariff policies on Southeast Asian regions may continue to challenge tire export trade [23]. Market Outlook - The overall supply-demand situation remains loose, with expectations of increased natural rubber supply and high inventory levels in downstream tire companies, leading to a strong likelihood of downward adjustments in operating rates. The slow growth in terminal demand makes it difficult for upward price transmission, suggesting that rubber prices may continue to experience downward fluctuations, with the RU-NR price spread likely to contract [25].

Group 1: Overview of the Casting Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy is the most widely used non-ferrous metal material in China, primarily composed of aluminum with added metal or non-metal elements to enhance its properties [5] - The industry is divided into primary aluminum alloys and recycled aluminum alloys, with the latter being produced from scrap aluminum [5] - ADC12 is a key grade of recycled casting aluminum alloy, accounting for approximately 10% of the total primary aluminum production [5][7] Group 2: Recycled Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain - The upstream of the recycled aluminum alloy industry chain consists of scrap aluminum recycling enterprises, with sources mainly from construction, transportation, and electrical sectors [6] - The midstream involves recycled aluminum production companies that process scrap aluminum into alloy ingots through various stages [6] - The downstream market sees recycled aluminum primarily in the form of casting aluminum alloy ingots, which are used extensively in the automotive sector [6] Group 3: Supply Situation of Scrap Aluminum in China - Domestic scrap aluminum supply is primarily sourced from old materials, with an expected total supply exceeding 12 million tons by 2024 [20][21] - The recycling system in China is still developing, with a need for more large-scale and professional recycling enterprises to stabilize supply channels [25] - The import of scrap aluminum has been subject to policy adjustments, with a significant increase in imports expected in 2024 [29][30] Group 4: Supply and Demand Status of Casting Aluminum Alloys - The production of recycled aluminum is projected to grow, with a target of 11.5 million tons by 2025 [37] - The demand for casting aluminum alloys is heavily driven by the automotive industry, which utilizes aluminum for weight reduction and fuel efficiency [54][56] - The current production capacity of recycled casting aluminum alloys is around 1.2 million tons, with ADC12 accounting for a significant portion of this production [38] Group 5: Price Trends of Casting Aluminum Alloys - The price of ADC12 generally follows the trend of primary aluminum prices, with a strong correlation observed [71] - The industry has faced low profit margins due to overcapacity, with average profits reported at -25 yuan per ton in 2024 [71] - The introduction of futures contracts for casting aluminum alloys is expected to enhance price discovery and provide risk management tools for market participants [78] Group 6: Futures Contract Details - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch a futures contract for casting aluminum alloys on June 10, 2025, with specific trading parameters outlined [79][80] - The contract will have a trading unit of 10 tons and a minimum price fluctuation of 5 yuan per ton [80] - Delivery will be based on specific quality standards, ensuring compliance with established chemical composition requirements [82]

以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者研究所 广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 文 | 朱迪 王泽辉 来源 | 广发期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 本次调研时间为5月下旬，走访了广西南宁、防城港、钦州、北海等地，涉及企业包括上游油厂及中游贸易商，主要为了探究当地及全国范围 内油脂油料市场的供需环境，及贸易政策不确定环境下，上中下游的采购、销售及备货节奏。 01 广西油脂油料市场总结 1.2油料市场情况 从本次调研情况来看，未来进口菜籽供应整体偏紧，目前油厂买船积极性差，受贸易关税相关政策影响，工厂担忧未来政策变化，谨 慎采购，少量的几条船均来自加拿大，暂未启动其他国家的菜籽采购。但国内进口颗粒粕库存相对充裕，预计3季度市场菜粕供应宽 松。8、9、10月菜粕将迎来水产旺季，或会有一波库存消化驱动，目前终端提货尚可，叠加4、5月豆粕基差高位，菜粕替代增加， 油厂菜粕库存目前偏低。而考虑到未来菜籽供应趋紧，油厂卖货并不激进，低价有挺价情绪。 巴西大豆目前陆陆续续到港中，但因前期到港衔接不佳及通关限制，油厂开机持续低位，豆粕建库过程缓慢。短期豆粕库存压力不 大，按照目前到货节奏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent economic policies and credit rating changes in the U.S., highlighting the potential risks and opportunities in the commodity markets and U.S. debt dynamics. Group 1: U.S. Credit Rating and Debt Dynamics - On May 16, Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the first downgrade in 108 years [2]. - The downgrade triggered a re-evaluation of U.S. Treasury risks, leading to a steepening yield curve, with 10-year yields rising by 3 basis points and 30-year yields by 10 basis points [4]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach $1.7 trillion for FY2023, approximately 6.3% of GDP, creating a vicious cycle of rising interest rates and expanding deficits [8]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Implications - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" fiscal policy aims to extend tax cuts and increase defense spending while raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, potentially increasing federal debt by $3.06 trillion over the next decade [7]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with about one-third being short-term debt, which poses refinancing risks as interest rates rise [9]. - The current fiscal pressure is the most severe since the 1980s, with interest payments potentially exceeding military spending, impacting infrastructure and healthcare budgets [11]. Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - The article notes that the current "stagflation" state in the U.S. economy is likely to persist, leading to downward pressure on commodity prices, particularly for financial commodities [13]. - Recent fluctuations in oil prices indicate a pessimistic demand environment, despite temporary supply shocks [17]. - In the agricultural sector, there is a bullish sentiment for corn and wheat due to supply constraints, while the soybean oil market faces limitations on price increases due to fiscal constraints [20][21]. Group 4: Currency and Investment Trends - The article highlights the impact of U.S.-China interest rate differentials on the RMB, with current U.S. rates around 4.5% compared to China's 1%-2% [23]. - A potential depreciation of the U.S. dollar could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB, which may attract global capital towards Chinese assets [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various tools and reports designed to assist users in observing and analyzing futures market opportunities and macroeconomic trends, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in trading [1][3]. Group 1: Research Phase - The tool "China Futures Market Volatility Observation" helps users observe the volatility of different futures varieties at various frequencies, making it relatively easy to use [3]. - "China Macro Value Relative Arbitrage" assists users in observing arbitrage opportunities from a macro perspective, categorized as an advanced tool [3]. - "China Futures Market Cross-Variety Arbitrage Tool" enables users to identify trading opportunities in cross-variety arbitrage, also classified as advanced [3]. - "China Futures Market Cross-Period Price Difference Arbitrage Tool" aids in observing trading opportunities in price differences of a single variety, categorized as advanced [3]. - "China Futures Market On-Site Options" helps users identify trading opportunities in futures options, classified as advanced [3]. - The "Global Macro Asset Climate Report" assists users in summarizing weekly market trends and anomalies globally, categorized as relatively easy to use [3]. Group 2: Pre-Trading Phase - "Trading Plan and Review" helps users clarify the target trading variety, entry basis, expected profit and loss, and position calculation, categorized as relatively easy [3]. - "Trading Position Calculation" assists users in calculating trading positions based on the Average True Range (ATR) of various trading varieties, categorized as relatively easy [3]. Group 3: Trading Phase - "Portfolio & Trading Management" is suitable for single market traders, assisting in managing investment portfolio risks, categorized as relatively easy [3]. - "Investment Portfolio Management Tool" is designed for multi-market and multi-asset traders, helping manage total and sub-asset account returns and risks, categorized as advanced [3]. Group 4: Review Phase - The "Trading Day's Memo" report helps users summarize daily market trends and anomalies, categorized as relatively easy [3].