Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50 [2][10] - The new export index is low, but domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] - The service sector PMI also saw a slight increase, driven by improvements in life services, particularly during the "May Day" holiday [40][67] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, with production and new orders indices increasing by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion line, while the new orders index remains in contraction territory, indicating a disparity between production acceleration and weak demand [2][10] - Industries with strong domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, showed better performance, with PMIs rising by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [21][24] New Orders and Exports - The internal demand orders index rose above the expansion line to 50.1%, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating a divergence in recovery between domestic and export orders [3][24] - The average value of new export orders over April and May remains lower than in March, suggesting ongoing pressure on exports [3][24] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector, which fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51% [67][29] - Despite the decline in construction, civil engineering activities are accelerating, with the civil engineering PMI rising to 62.3% [29][84] - The service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, supported by active consumer spending during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, with ongoing monitoring of fiscal policies' support for domestic demand [45][45] - The focus will be on the potential for fiscal measures to bolster service consumption and infrastructure investment, which are expected to enhance domestic demand support [45][45]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. House of Representatives passing a tax reduction bill, which has led to a "triple kill" in the stock, bond, and currency markets [6][17]. - It highlights the potential impact of the bill on the federal deficit and interest rates, suggesting that the new tax measures could exacerbate the deficit [10][11]. - The article also examines the ongoing trends in employment and wage growth across various sectors, indicating a shift in labor market dynamics [11][14]. Group 2: Deep Dives - A detailed analysis of the tax reduction bill outlines its components, including extensions of existing tax cuts and new tax measures, which collectively could lead to a significant increase in the federal deficit [10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of manufacturing as a pillar of the national economy, noting its resilience amid changing economic conditions [16]. - It provides insights into the automotive sector, reporting a sustained increase in vehicle sales, which may indicate a recovery in consumer spending [15][18]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Trends - The article discusses the potential for new policies to smooth out fiscal spending rhythms, thereby supporting economic recovery [14]. - It raises concerns about profit sustainability in industrial enterprises, particularly in light of tariff disruptions and cost fluctuations [14]. - The article also touches on the overlooked aspects of service consumption recovery, attributing it to reduced leisure time rather than income effects [19].

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant front-loading of fiscal debt financing, which has positively impacted expenditure performance. From January to April, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2% [2][8][72] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds. From January to April, the net financing of government debt was 4.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, becoming the core support for broad fiscal expenditure [3][21][73] - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt. As of the end of May, 6.3 trillion yuan has been net financed, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32][74] Group 2 - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is not due to improved revenue, as the cumulative fiscal revenue from January to April showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3%, falling short of the budget target by 1.5 percentage points, mainly due to declines in tax and land transfer revenues [2][14][72] - The government is expected to maintain a high level of net financing for government debt until the end of September, with the second quarter's net financing expected to increase by 2.3 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the third quarter maintaining a historically high level of 3.8 trillion yuan [4][35][74] - To smooth out economic fluctuations in the second half of the year, the government may introduce incremental policies to stabilize broad fiscal expenditure growth, especially given the uncertainties in economic recovery [5][37][74] Group 3 - Various policies are available to mitigate fluctuations in the second half of the year, including flexible budgetary tools and policy financial instruments that can be deployed quickly. The effectiveness of these tools has been validated in practice since 2022 [6][39][74] - The focus of incremental funding will be on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment, with an emphasis on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents to stimulate consumption [7][50][74] - The government is likely to consider additional funding if fiscal revenue falls short of budget targets, which could impact the support of fiscal expenditure for nominal GDP [7][44][74]

报告正文 2. 政策跟踪：制造业是国民经济的重要支柱 2.1 总书记河南考察：制造业是国民经济的重要支柱 5月19-20日，习近平总书记对"十五五"规划编制工作作出重要指示并赴河南进行考察调研。习近平总书 记指出，"十五五"规划编制要坚持科学、民主、依法决策，企业要根据规划调整战略，把握政策红利，推动 产业结构优化升级。在河南考察时，总书记强调，制造业是国民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保 持制造业合理比重，同时，现代制造业离不开科技赋能，要大力加强技术攻关，走自主创新的发展路子。 2.2 商务部例行发布会：做强国内市场、促进消费 5月22日，商务部召开例行新闻发布会，剔除做强国内市场，促进消费，更好发挥消费对经济循环的牵 引带动作用。发布会上，商务部剔除将加快实施提振消费专项行动，推进促消费政策落实；加快完善现代商 贸流通体系，支持再生资源回收和二手商品流通，推进电商高质量发展；加快推进内外贸一体化，帮扶企业 有效应对外部冲击。对于刚刚结束的APEC第三十一届贸易部长会议，发言人表示中方愿与各方深化经济合 作，加快区域经济一体化。 | 时间 | 事件 | 内容概要 | 主要内容 加快实施提振消费专项行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled on May 29 that President Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was illegal, challenging the legitimacy of the U.S. trade war and potentially leading to significant changes in trade policy [2][24]. Summary by Sections Current Status of the U.S. International Trade Court Ruling - The court found that the President lacked the authority to unilaterally impose tariffs on all imported goods under IEEPA, infringing on Congress's constitutional trade legislative powers [2][25]. - A permanent injunction was issued against the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to cease the collection of tariffs imposed under IEEPA, effective within 10 days unless a stay is granted by a higher court [2][25]. Who Are the Plaintiffs? - The ruling was a result of a combined lawsuit from 12 Democratic state attorneys general and five importers represented by a nonprofit organization [3][26]. - The court's reasoning included that Trump's tariffs exceeded the authority granted by IEEPA and lacked a reasonable connection to the issues of fentanyl and immigration [3][26]. Which Tariffs May Become Invalid? - Tariffs related to fentanyl and those imposed on Mexico and Canada, as well as a global 10% baseline tariff, are likely to be affected [4][27]. - However, tariffs from Trump's earlier policies, such as the Section 301 tariffs on China, remain in effect, with potential reductions to around 12% [4][27]. Impact of the Ruling and Trump's Possible Responses - Trump has appealed the ruling and may seek a stay from the Federal Circuit Court, with the appeal process potentially lasting 6 to 18 months [5][28]. - The administration still has other tools available, such as Sections 301, 232, and 122, to impose tariffs, although these come with more constraints compared to IEEPA [5][28]. Historical Context and Market Reaction - Historically, major trade wars initiated by Republican presidents have ended in three ways: domestic opposition leading to electoral defeat, achieving specific trade goals, or WTO rulings against the U.S. [6][29]. - Following the court's decision, risk assets surged while safe-haven assets declined, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.2% and the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 3.2 basis points [6][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new trends in employment and wage data for urban employees in 2024, highlighting shifts from high salary pursuits to a focus on reducing work intensity and improving hourly wages across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Trend 1: Employment is shifting from "pursuing high salaries" to "anti-involution," with a notable decrease in average wage growth for urban non-private sector employees, which has dropped to 2.8% in 2024, down 6.8 percentage points since 2021 [2][9]. - The transportation, leather, and clothing industries have shown resilience in wage growth, with transportation revenue growth exceeding 8% in 2024, while the average wage in the non-private sector is 124,000 yuan [2][9]. - Employment is increasingly moving towards sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, such as healthcare, where weekly working hours decreased by 1.5 hours and hourly wages increased by 9.3 yuan from 2021 to 2023 [2][32]. Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence and Employment Consumption - Trend 2: There is a convergence in wage growth between eastern and western regions, with the wage growth rate in eastern urban non-private sectors at 7.5% from 2019 to 2023, compared to 7.1% in the western regions, narrowing the gap from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2024 [4][52][53]. - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating towards the western regions, driven by stronger wage growth resilience in these areas, particularly in hospitality and retail sectors [4][75]. - The shift in consumer behavior from local to cross-province consumption is further concentrating employment in the service sector in the western regions, with significant growth in consumer spending in these areas [5][80]. Group 3: Wage Growth in Private and Flexible Employment - Trend 3: Some private and flexible employment sectors are experiencing wage increases, particularly in the service industry, where private sector wage growth is higher than in non-private sectors, with education and retail showing increases of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively [6][96]. - The average wage growth for private sector employees has decreased to 1.7%, while flexible employment, particularly in new roles like ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, has seen a rise in average monthly income to 10,506 yuan, significantly higher than traditional employment [7][114]. - New flexible employment roles are characterized by higher pay but also increased work intensity, with platform-based workers averaging 54.3 hours per week, compared to traditional workers [7][122].

Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with blast furnace operating rates showing resilience, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.1% [1][4] - Chemical production is marginally improving, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 0.1, 0.7, and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to -4.7%, 5.4%, and 4.1% respectively [1][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has slightly decreased, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to -2.6% [1][17] Construction Industry - Construction activity has weakened, with significant declines in grinding and cement shipment rates, down 1.1 percentage points to -4.6% and 1 percentage point to -8% year-on-year respectively [1][29] - The asphalt operating rate has notably decreased, down 8.8 percentage points year-on-year to -2% [1][41] Downstream Demand - New housing transactions have shown marginal improvement, with the average daily transaction area increasing by 14.2% year-on-year to 0.9%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][53] - Automotive sales continue to strengthen, with retail and wholesale volumes increasing by 15.4% to 28.5% and 21.4% to 22.1% year-on-year respectively [2][80] Price Trends - Prices of agricultural and industrial products have generally declined, with pork, vegetables, fruits, and eggs decreasing by 0.2%, 1.1%, 1.5%, and 1.3% respectively [2][99] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 1% week-on-week, with energy and chemical prices down 1.3% and metal prices down 0.6% [2][111] Transportation and Logistics - National freight volumes have rebounded, with rail freight volume and highway truck traffic increasing by 0.6% to 1% and 2.1% to 1% year-on-year respectively [2][63] - Port cargo throughput has also improved, up 2.1% year-on-year to 5.4%, while container throughput has slightly decreased by 0.5% to 6.1% [2][63] Consumer Behavior - Movie attendance and box office revenue have increased by 9.5% to -37.1% and 8% to -38.4% year-on-year respectively [2][80] - The overall consumer sentiment appears to be improving, as indicated by the increase in various consumption metrics [2][80]

Core Viewpoint - April's profit growth is primarily driven by short-term improvements in costs and expenses, but attention is needed on potential profit decline pressures in the third quarter due to tariff disturbances [3][76]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In April, industrial profits increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, mainly due to improved cost and expense pressures [3][9]. - The contribution of costs and expenses to overall profit improved, with costs contributing +2.7 percentage points and expenses +0.5 percentage points, while other losses contributed negatively [3][9]. - Actual operating revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, contributing 4.9% to overall profit growth [3][9]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Industry Performance - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86%, with a year-on-year marginal decline of 12.6 basis points [3][17]. - Downstream consumer manufacturing industries saw a cost rate increase of 59.7 basis points to 84.3%, which was significantly lower than seasonal trends [3][17]. - In contrast, the petrochemical and metallurgy chains experienced weaker cost rate performance compared to previous years, with respective increases of 37.3 basis points to 86.5% and a decrease of 18.2 basis points to 87% [3][17]. Group 3: Revenue Support from Infrastructure and Export - Benefiting from infrastructure investment and export boosts, the coal and metallurgy chains, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant revenue support [4][27]. - The actual revenue growth rate fell by 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, with the petrochemical industry experiencing a notable decline of 3 percentage points to 2.1% [4][27]. - The "export rush" temporarily supported revenue growth in the consumer manufacturing chain, which saw a year-on-year decline of 1.5 percentage points to 7.8% [4][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - Future profit recovery remains uncertain due to potential lagging effects of tariffs and low capacity utilization in mid- and downstream sectors [4][33]. - Historical data indicates that profit margins have a greater impact on profits than revenue, with current low capacity utilization keeping consumer manufacturing cost rates high [4][33]. - Past experiences suggest that post-tariff implementation may lead to declines in asset turnover and rising fixed costs, causing profit growth to fall more sharply than revenue [4][33]. Group 5: Regular Tracking of Industrial Enterprises - Industrial enterprise profits showed a recovery, primarily due to improved profit margins, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [5][78]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises remained stable, with significant increases in the food and beverage sector, where revenue growth rates rose by 8.8, 7.0, and 2.9 percentage points for food, alcohol, and agricultural products, respectively [5][50]. - Inventory growth slightly declined, indicating that terminal demand still requires further recovery, with nominal inventory down 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [5][61].

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][3][7] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" aims to extend tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an expected increase in the deficit rate by approximately 1.8 percentage points by 2026, despite the limited marginal economic contribution [3][29][40] - The Act's passage faces uncertainty in the Senate, where the Republican majority is slim, and potential modifications could require further voting in the House [3][29] - The Act is projected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, with an estimated deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over ten years, which cannot be offset by the anticipated $2.5 trillion in new tariffs [3][40] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to a rise of approximately 78 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][50] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated, influenced by potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]

5月美国Markit制造业、服务业PMI反弹，日本4月核心CPI升温。 美国5月Markit制造业、服务业PMI均 提升至 52.3，前值分别为50.2、50.8，或反映中美关税缓和影响；4月日本CPI同比3.6%，核心通胀（剔除 食品、能源口径）同比3.0%，后者维持上升趋势。 风险提示 美国再现"股债汇"三杀，金价再度"异军突起"。 当周，纳指下跌2.5%，日经225下跌1.6%；10Y美债收益 率上行8bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌1.8%至99.12，离岸人民币升至7.1722；WTI原油下跌1.5%至61.5美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金上涨5.0%至3351.0美元/盎司。 美国众议院通过减税法案。 5月22日，美国众议院以215票赞成、214票反对的微弱优势通过了《美丽大 法案》，法案旨在永久延续2017年《减税与就业法案》中的多项减税措施，并引入新的税收优惠。该法 案已提交参议院，共和党计划将在7月4日之前完成表决。 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：众议院通过减税法案，市场再现"股债汇"三杀 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" ...