Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the US committing to cancel 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods since April 8 and suspending 24% of tariffs for 90 days, while China reciprocated with similar actions. This indicates a stabilizing economic relationship and highlights the resilience of Chinese manufacturing in the global supply chain [1][5][9]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Implications - The trade agreement is expected to lower constraints on Chinese exports to the US, reducing the risk of export decline and potentially increasing export elasticity in the short term [9]. - The agreement is likely to mitigate the risks of recession in the US and global economies caused by tariffs, thus stabilizing external demand and financial environments [9][10]. Group 2: Manufacturing Competitiveness - Chinese manufacturing has strengthened its global position, with a significant increase in both scale and efficiency since 2018. In 2021, China's manufacturing value added accounted for approximately 31% of the global total, far surpassing the US at 16% and Japan at 6% [7][8]. - The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows that China has improved its ranking from 35th in 1990 to 2nd in 2021, indicating a robust competitive edge in manufacturing [8]. Group 3: Economic Policy Direction - The macroeconomic policy aimed at expanding domestic demand remains unchanged despite tariff impacts. The focus is on optimizing the supply-demand relationship and enhancing consumption contributions to economic growth [12]. - The recent trade talks and resilient export data may provide a more extended window for policy adjustments, allowing for potential fine-tuning based on economic conditions [12]. Group 4: Asset Pricing and Market Impact - The progress in trade talks is expected to lead to upward revisions in nominal growth expectations, a decline in liquidity expectations, and an increase in risk appetite, which may drive interest rates higher [13]. - Equity assets are likely to benefit from improved fundamental expectations and the elimination of extreme scenarios, particularly in sectors sensitive to external demand and overall economic volume [13].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on supply and demand dynamics between China and the US, highlighting that tariffs can lead to product surplus in exporting countries and shortages in importing countries, affecting price levels [1][2][3] - China's macroeconomic policy is shifting towards stimulating demand and stabilizing supply, contrasting with the US approach of incentivizing supply while constraining demand, as indicated by recent policy measures [2][3] - The article anticipates future policies in China that may optimize supply, including adjustments in real estate and key industries, to stabilize the supply-demand ratio and price levels [2][3] Group 2 - In the context of ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable Federal Reserve, global stock markets have shown mixed performance, with US indices experiencing slight declines while Asian markets, particularly Japan and China, have demonstrated resilience [4][5] - The article notes fluctuations in commodity prices, with gold prices rising amid geopolitical tensions, while oil prices have rebounded but face limitations due to OPEC+ production plans [5][6] - The performance of the Chinese stock market is highlighted, with significant gains in the ChiNext index and military-industrial sectors, reflecting a positive market sentiment following recent economic dialogues and policy adjustments [7][8] Group 3 - The article outlines the recent US-UK trade agreement, which maintains certain tariffs while reducing others, indicating a complex trade environment that may influence future negotiations with China [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting maintained interest rates, with indications that any potential rate cuts may be delayed until July, reflecting a cautious approach to economic data [9][10] - The article presents high-frequency economic data showing a slowdown in GDP growth rates, with actual and nominal GDP growth at 4.89% and 3.71% respectively, indicating a deceleration compared to the previous quarter [10][11] Group 4 - The article discusses the ongoing trends in industrial production and consumer prices, noting a mixed performance in various sectors, with some experiencing slowdowns while others show signs of recovery [11][12] - It highlights the expected rise in CPI and PPI, with projections indicating a potential stabilization in consumer prices despite ongoing weaknesses in industrial prices [12][13] - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing monetary policy with supply-demand dynamics to achieve reasonable price recovery, suggesting a coordinated approach to economic policy [16][17] Group 5 - The article details the acceleration of fiscal measures, with central government bond issuance outpacing local government efforts, reflecting a proactive stance in economic management [17][18] - It notes the contributions of various industries to PPI declines, particularly traditional sectors like coal and steel, which have seen increased pressure on prices [18][19] - The article concludes with observations on the overall weakness in industrial prices, while consumer goods prices show stability, indicating a divergence in market trends [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a slight decrease in both indices, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy. It emphasizes the need for effective demand stimulation and policy coordination to enhance economic recovery and stabilize prices. CPI Analysis - In April 2025, the CPI year-on-year change was -0.1%, consistent with the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year change was -2.7%, lower than the previous -2.5% [1][7] - The CPI month-on-month change was 0.1%, an improvement over the negative growth seen in February and March. Key price increases were driven by reduced imports affecting beef prices, increased travel activity during the May Day holiday, and rising gold prices [8][9] - Beef prices rose by 3.9% month-on-month in April, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 5.9 percentage points. Travel-related costs, including airfare and accommodation, saw significant increases, contributing approximately 0.10 percentage points to the CPI month-on-month [8][9] PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month change was -0.4%, unchanged from March. Input price pressures remain significant, particularly in the oil and gas extraction sector, which saw a month-on-month decline of 3.1% [10][11] - The steel industry continues to face the necessity of capacity reduction, with black metal smelting prices decreasing by 1.0% month-on-month. The construction sector supports cement prices, while the automotive industry experiences ongoing price declines due to technological advancements and market competition [10][11] - The article anticipates that the PPI year-on-year decline may continue to widen due to elevated bases from May to July and external demand pressures affecting capacity utilization in certain industries [4][12] Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that the relationship between money supply and prices is complex and depends on supply-demand dynamics. Effective demand stimulation is crucial for price recovery, necessitating coordinated policies across various sectors [5][14] - The article suggests that optimizing the supply-demand ratio is essential for positive effects from monetary policy expansion. Key policy paths include boosting consumption, stabilizing local investment, and promoting technological and industrial innovation [6][15]

Core Viewpoint - The export growth in April 2025 reached 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations despite the impact of new tariffs from the U.S. [1][5][6] Group 1: Export Performance - April's export growth of 8.1% is higher than the 5.8% growth in the first quarter and significantly above the market expectation of 0.6% [5][6] - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 21.0% year-on-year, but this was still better than anticipated [6][7] - Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America showed strong growth rates of 20.8%, 21.7%, 25.3%, and 17.3% respectively, providing a counterbalance to the decline in U.S. exports [8][6] Group 2: Export Product Categories - Labor-intensive products such as textiles, bags, clothing, and toys saw a combined year-on-year decline of 0.8% [9] - Electronics, particularly mobile phones, were significantly affected by tariffs, with exports down 21.4% for phones and 1.7% for automatic data processing equipment [11] - Home appliances and furniture exports also declined, with year-on-year decreases of 2.9% and 7.8% respectively [12] - Automotive exports showed slight improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% in April, up from 2.2% in the first quarter [13] - Notable growth was observed in several categories: general machinery equipment exports increased by 17.0%, ship exports surged by 36.1%, and integrated circuit exports rose by 20.2% [13][11] Group 3: Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturing - The April export data highlights the competitiveness and resilience of "Made in China" products [13] - China's manufacturing sector has both scale and efficiency advantages, as indicated by its global manufacturing value added share of approximately 31% in 2021, compared to the U.S. at 16% and Japan at 6% [14] - The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows that China has improved its ranking from 35th in 1990 to 2nd in 2021, indicating enhanced efficiency [14] Group 4: Tariff Impact and Future Outlook - Caution is advised regarding the potential impact of tariffs, as historical data suggests that the effects may intensify in the coming months [15] - The PMI for April showed a 4.3-point decline in export orders, indicating a slowdown in demand, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and midstream equipment manufacturing [16] - The current growth dynamics suggest a need for policies to stimulate domestic demand, especially in light of the ongoing tariff pressures [17]

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 在美联储2025年5月议息会议中，FOMC官员一致投票保持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25-4.5%，这 是自2024年9月启动降息后第三次暂停。同时，美联储表示将继续资产负债表缩减。本次议息会议不降息在 市场预期之内，相对更为重要的是美联储对于经济和通胀等问题的认识。 第二， 新闻发布会中，鲍威尔的开场演说主要观点是经济韧性较强（in a solid position）、通胀持续回 落，货币政策现阶段处于合理位置（in a good place）。（1）一季度GDP环比折年率转负主要由于企业抢 进口导致，但私人最终国内需求保持稳健增长。（2）就业情况亦保持稳健（solid），新增非农前3个月月均 15.5万人，失业率低位、新增增速有序放缓。（3）通胀较2022年年中显著回落，短期通胀预期有所回升， 关税预期为主要背景；长期通胀预期仍然保持稳定 。 第五， FOMC声明变化不大，一是在声明开头增加了"受净出口数据影响"，但仍将经济活动描述为稳健 （solid pace），二是新增"委员会认为失业率上升和通 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 钟林楠 zhonglinnan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 2025 年 5 月 7 日，央行、国家金融监管总局与证监会在国新办新闻发布会上介绍"一揽子金融政策 支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，宣布了一揽子逆周期调节政策。我们理解，这是 4 月 25 日政治局会议"加强 超常规逆周期调节"精神的落地。政策涉及内容较多，我们可以简单理解为货币政策、房地产政策、金融政 策、市场政策四个方面。 第二， 货币政策举措共有十项，其中较为关键的包括：（ 1 ）降准 50BP ，投放大约 1 万亿元流动性；（ 2 ）降息 10BP ，引导 LPR 下降 10BP ；（ 3 ）结构性工具降息 25BP ，科创与技术改造再贷款、支农 支小再贷款额度均增加 3000 亿元，创设服务消费与养老再贷款（ 5000 亿元额度）与科技创新债券风险分 担工具，汽车金融公司与金融租赁公司法准率降至 0% 等。与 924 新闻发布会提出的"降准 50BP+ 降息 20BP "组合相比，这次"降准 50BP+ 降息 10BP+ 结构性工具降息 25BP+ 结构性工具扩容 1.1 万 亿 元"的组合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing significant fluctuations due to tariff impacts, with asset prices showing a "rebound" effect after initial adjustments, leading to increased volatility in global markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Performance - As of April 30, 2025, the performance ranking of major assets is as follows: Gold > Euro Stoxx > Nikkei > Chinese Bonds > Nasdaq > 0 > Sci-Tech 50 > CSI 300 > Dow Jones > Hang Seng > US Dollar > Hang Seng Tech > LME Copper > Crude Oil [1][13]. - Gold has shown a year-to-date increase of 26.5% and a monthly rise of 6%, leading in both returns and Sharpe ratio among major assets, although it faced a pullback in late April [1][17]. - The domestic stock market exhibited a "dumbbell" characteristic, with small-cap and stable dividend stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, as evidenced by a 5.0% increase in the micro-cap index [1][41]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and construction PMI in China fell to 49.0%, 50.1%, and 51.9%, respectively, indicating initial impacts from external demand [3]. - The US economy is showing signs of negative impacts from trade tensions, with Q1 GDP growth adjusted for inflation recording a negative annualized rate, and consumer spending growth slowing to 1.8% [3]. - The Eurozone and Japan's manufacturing PMIs showed slight increases, indicating some resilience in their economies [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The domestic bond market displayed a dual pricing characteristic of nominal growth and liquidity, with interest rates declining in early April due to tariff impacts and expectations of policy easing later in the month [2][4]. - The stock market is increasingly focused on "finding certainty," with a shift towards dividend-paying and stable sectors amid rising external demand concerns [2][4]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has deepened, with the rolling 12-month correlation increasing from -0.26 to -0.30, indicating a stronger inverse relationship [28]. Group 4: Sector Performance - In April, only 4 out of 31 sectors recorded positive returns, with beauty care, agriculture, retail, and utilities leading the gains, while sectors like power equipment and telecommunications lagged due to tariff impacts [41][51]. - The real estate market showed a mixed performance, with new home sales declining while second-hand home sales maintained a high growth rate, reflecting resilience in major cities [53]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The dividend asset timing model indicates a continued rise in dividend scores, suggesting a shift towards dividend-paying stocks as a strategy to mitigate uncertainty [6][7]. - The valuation macro deviation framework suggests that if nominal GDP growth can recover, there will be further room for reasonable valuation expansion in the market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in the United States, highlighting a negative growth in GDP, stable non-farm payroll data, and the implications of tariffs on trade and investment. It emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand despite external pressures and the potential for a technical rebound in GDP in the upcoming quarter. Group 1: Economic Growth and GDP - The actual GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 in the U.S. turned negative at -0.3%, compared to an expected -0.2% and a previous value of 2.4%. The decline was attributed to uncertainties from tariffs, leading to inventory accumulation and early imports, which negatively impacted net exports by 4.8 percentage points [1][5][6] - Despite the negative GDP growth, private final domestic demand showed resilience with a growth rate of +3.0%, including consumer spending at +1.8% and non-residential fixed investment at +9.8% [6][7] - A technical rebound in GDP is expected in Q2 2025 as imports decline and inventory adjustments occur, although a slowdown in domestic demand remains likely due to tariff constraints [6][12] Group 2: Labor Market and Non-Farm Payrolls - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 138,000, indicating stability in the labor market. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.19% from 4.15% [2][8][9] - The transportation and warehousing sectors saw job gains of 29,000, likely due to tariff-related early imports, while government employment faced a decline due to layoffs [9][10] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.6%, with notable increases in employment among various age groups, indicating a resilient labor market despite external pressures [10][11] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Policies - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan have stalled, with the U.S. refusing to grant special treatment on tariffs for certain products. This has raised concerns about the potential impact on the automotive supply chain [18][19] - The U.S. has also initiated discussions on imposing 100% tariffs on films produced abroad, reflecting a broader trend of aggressive trade policies under the current administration [19] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to affect market sentiment and investment decisions, with notable criticism from influential figures like Warren Buffett regarding the use of trade as a weapon [18][19] Group 4: Financial Market and Treasury - The U.S. Treasury's refinancing efforts are in line with expectations, maintaining the auction size of interest-bearing debt for the next several quarters. This is influenced by the Federal Reserve's slowing of quantitative tightening [13][14] - The Treasury is expected to rely more on T-bills for financing, with no anticipated increase in the auction size of interest-bearing debt throughout 2025 [14][15] - Concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and fiscal policy are contributing to increased risk premiums in the Treasury market, affecting investor confidence [16][17]

Industrial Sector - In April, the operating rates in the industrial sector showed mixed results, with strong performance in the steel and coking industries, while the textile and apparel sector saw a decline. The national high furnace operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the coking enterprises' operating rate rose by 8.8 percentage points [1][6][7] - The operating rates for various products were as follows: styrene increased by 1.7 percentage points, PVC by 1.8 percentage points, while the operating rates for automotive semi-steel tires and full-steel tires decreased by 2.9 and 1.0 percentage points respectively [1][6][7] Construction Sector - The construction funding availability rate improved in April, with a national average of 58.8%, up 0.9 percentage points from March. Non-residential and residential project funding rates increased by 0.8 and 1.7 percentage points respectively [2][8][9] - However, the physical workload indicators showed divergence, with the national cement shipment rate at 42.3%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, and the asphalt operating rate at 28.3%, up 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][8][9] Real Estate Market - New home sales growth in April saw a decline, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities at 22.7 million square meters, down 12.8% year-on-year. First, second, and third-tier cities recorded declines of -2.2%, -16.1%, and -18.9% respectively [3][12][13] - The second-hand housing market remained active, with a 24.0% year-on-year increase in intermediary subscriptions across 84 cities, and a 21.1% increase in net signed contracts in core cities [3][12][13] Automotive Sector - Passenger car retail sales in April remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 10%. The wholesale volume also grew by 10% year-on-year [3][14] - New energy vehicle sales saw a year-on-year increase of 24%, although this was a decrease from the previous month's growth of 39% [3][14] Consumer Electronics - In April, air conditioning sales maintained a relatively high growth rate, with online sales up 67.7% year-on-year. Offline sales for air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators showed mixed results, with air conditioners up 27.4% year-on-year [3][14][15] Shipping and Logistics - Container throughput growth slowed further in April, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, down from 9.8% in March. Port cargo throughput averaged a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [4][15] Price Trends - Food and industrial prices were relatively weak in April, with the BPI index dropping to 863 points, marking a 4.0% month-on-month decline. Prices for pork and key vegetables also fell [4][16] Travel and Tourism - During the "May Day" holiday, cross-regional travel increased by 5.5% year-on-year, with domestic flight execution numbers up 6.5% compared to April [5][17][18] - Tourism consumption was active, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and hotel reservations, particularly in county-level tourism [5][17][19]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4月制造业PMI环比下行1.5个点至49.0，环比降幅明显大于2014年以来季节性均值的0.8个点。中观景气面同步放缓，位于扩张区间的行业个数由前值 的8个减少至5个。前期公布的EPMI、BCI指数和PMI指向一致，可以相互印证，显示外需的影响在初步形成。 第二， 从分项指标看，从出口订单向生产、价格、就业的传递链条较为清晰。（1）出口订单环比下行4.3个点至44.7，绝对景气水平为过去10年仅好于2020 和2022年4月的偏低水平，显示了关税落地对外需的影响；（2）企业生产量指标4月环比下降2.8个点，且代表企业未来生产意愿的采购指标环比下降5.5个 点，是所有分项指标中环比降幅最大的，显示了企业在外部冲击下主动调整当期和未来生产的表现；（3）购进和出厂价格环比分别下降2.8和3.1个点，尤其是 出厂价格环比降幅创下过去8个月新低，3月PPI环比已经下降0.4个点的背景下，输入性价格下跌过程尚未结束；（4）雇员指标环比下降0.3个点，这一指标已 经环比连续2个月放缓。 第三， 哪些行业相对来说受影响较 ...