Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5%, slightly up from 49% in April[5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, down from 50.4%[5] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.4% from 50.2%[5] Group 2: Sector Performance - In May, the production and new orders PMI were 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively, indicating improvements[5] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors showed PMIs of 50.9% and 51.2%, both in the expansion zone[5] - The raw materials sector PMI was at 47%, indicating insufficient production and demand[5] Group 3: Export and Import Trends - New export orders PMI rose to 47.5% from 44.7%, signaling a key demand recovery[5] - Import PMI also increased to 47.1% from 43.4%, reflecting a significant rebound[5] - Despite improvements, external trade orders are expected to have limited long-term impact due to high tariffs[5] Group 4: Business Size Impact - Large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, while medium and small enterprises recorded 47.5% and 49.3%, respectively[5] - Large enterprises were crucial for the PMI rebound, with their production and demand indices returning above the neutral line[5] Group 5: Price Stability and Service Sector - The factory price and major raw material purchase price PMIs were 44.7% and 46.9%, indicating price stability[5] - The service sector showed slight recovery with business activity and new orders indices at 50.2% and 46.6%[5]

Group 1: Legal and Judicial Developments - On May 29, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled that Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, marking a judicial constraint on Trump's executive power in trade policy[1] - The ruling emphasizes the constitutional principle of separation of powers, highlighting the legal controversy surrounding Trump's tariff policies and their impact on the U.S. trade governance system[1] - Although the CIT ruling has nationwide effect, the Trump administration can delay its implementation through appeals or by invoking other legal grounds[1] Group 2: Tariff Implications and Future Actions - Following the CIT ruling, the Trump administration filed an appeal, and the appellate court allowed Trump to continue imposing import tariffs, with responses due by June 5 and June 9[2] - Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% starting June 4, disrupting ongoing negotiations with trade partners like Canada and the EU[1] - The ability to delay the execution of the CIT ruling may influence the establishment of a normalized tariff mechanism, with the Justice Department seeking a long-term stay on the ruling[2] Group 3: Constitutional and Legislative Concerns - The core debate centers on whether Trump's use of IEEPA to impose tariffs exceeds the constitutional powers granted to the presidency, as only Congress has the authority to levy tariffs[3] - The lawsuit was initiated by Arizona, with multiple states participating, reflecting a broader concern over executive overreach in tariff imposition[3] - The ruling indirectly criticizes Congress for allowing the expansion of presidential powers and calls for clearer legislative boundaries regarding tariff authority[4] Group 4: Alternative Taxation Strategies - The Trump administration may explore other taxation methods to circumvent judicial constraints, including tariffs based on national security under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962[4] - Potential expansion of tariffs to other industries, such as semiconductors and lumber, could be pursued under existing trade laws[4] - The outcome of the appeals process may affect the leverage Trump has in trade negotiations, with partners likely to pause concessions until a definitive judicial ruling is made[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price of 172.90 HKD [6][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Meituan's performance in Q1 2025 was better than expected, driven by growth in its ecosystem and overseas expansion despite short-term impacts from delivery subsidies [12][21]. - The report projects a high single-digit growth in food delivery orders, with improvements in user engagement and supply-side offerings contributing to revenue growth [2][9]. - Instant retail is expected to see approximately 30% growth in order volume, with strong brand operations enhancing performance [3][9]. - The hotel and travel segment is forecasted to grow over 30% in transaction value, with ongoing category expansion and improved consumer recognition through membership benefits [4][9]. - New business segments, particularly community group buying, are showing signs of reduced losses, and international expansion efforts are being actively pursued [4][9]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery - Q1 2025 food delivery orders are expected to grow in the high single digits, with improved user stickiness and frequency of purchases [2]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to outpace order volume growth due to enhanced advertising monetization and effective subsidies [2]. - Meituan plans to invest 100 billion CNY over the next three years to promote high-quality development in the industry [2]. Instant Retail - Q1 2025 instant retail orders are projected to grow by about 30%, with over 500 million transaction users and a significant increase in non-food orders [3]. - The establishment of over 30,000 instant warehouses is expected to enhance order volume contributions [3]. Hotel and Travel - The hotel and travel segment is expected to see a GTV growth of over 30% in Q1 2025, with ongoing product category expansion [4]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to be lower than GTV growth due to advertising revenue impacts [4]. New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue reached 22.2 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [4]. - Meituan's community group buying segment is expected to continue reducing losses, while international expansion plans include significant investments in markets like Brazil [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a revenue of 385.2 billion CNY for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [13]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at 36.9 billion CNY, with an EPS of 6.04 CNY [10][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [10][18]. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have slightly decreased this week, but the focus remains on agricultural chemicals due to the ongoing spring farming season [10][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy [10][18]. - Recommendations include companies like Wanhua Chemical, Huangma Technology, Runfeng Co., Guoguang Co., and Hualu Hengsheng, highlighting their respective strengths and market positions [10][18]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of May 30, Brent oil price decreased by 1.35% to $63.90 per barrel, with concerns about supply growth impacting the market [14]. - U.S. crude oil commercial inventory stood at 440.4 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 2.8 million barrels [14]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, hydrochloric acid saw the highest weekly price increase of 35.4%, while acrylic acid experienced the largest decline of 9.7% [15][16]. Price and Spread Changes - The top three products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrochloric acid (up 35.4%), liquid chlorine (up 21.8%), and international potassium chloride (up 8.4%) [10][15]. - The highest price spread increases were seen in the following products: BDO spread (up 71.6%), lithium hexafluorophosphate spread (up 54.9%), and carbon black spread (up 39.3%) [10][19]. - Monthly price changes showed hydrochloric acid leading with a 43.4% increase, while the BDO spread saw a significant monthly increase of 588.0% [10][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market had expected certain negative factors in the bond market in June, mainly related to liquidity. However, these factors may have been fully anticipated and priced in, suggesting potential repair opportunities in the bond market in June. The report is not pessimistic about the bond market in June, expecting bond yields to experience a slight repair [5][8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking - Market expectations of negative factors in the bond market in June include seasonal liquidity tightness, large government bond supply, and significant maturing interbank certificates of deposit (ICDs), which may pose liability pressure on banks. However, these factors may have been fully anticipated by the market, and in the absence of new negative factors, their impact on the bond market may be controllable [5][8]. - Non - bank liquidity is relatively abundant, with wealth management products increasing their purchases of ICDs from April to May. Insurance companies' bond - allocation willingness has decreased recently but may improve in June due to potentially large maturing insurance deposits [5][8]. - Last week, long - term bond yields adjusted and then marginally recovered. Market concerns about central bank actions and liquidity, uncertainties regarding the bond - and fund - product allocation enthusiasm of banks and insurance companies, and strong stock market performance all pressured the bond market. Eventually, long - term yields recovered as yields rose to around 1.73% and cross - month liquidity fluctuations were relatively stable. On May 30, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year government bonds changed by 0.6, - 1.4, - 0.1, 1, and - 4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [5][44]. 2. Fixed Income Market Outlook 2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Releases - This week, important data to be released include China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the US May unemployment rate, and the Eurozone's ECB deposit facility rate [18][19]. 2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - Bearing Bonds - This week, approximately 715.6 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds are expected to be issued, which is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, 446 billion yuan of government bonds, 109.6 billion yuan of local government bonds, and about 160 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds are expected to be issued [19][20]. 3. Interest - Bearing Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Liquidity Injection and Funding Conditions - The central bank significantly increased reverse repurchase operations. The net liquidity injection through open - market operations this week was 656.6 billion yuan. Cross - month funding pressure was manageable, with the volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions seasonally declining and the overnight share averaging around 83%. Funding rates increased only slightly at the end of the month. On May 30, overnight and 7 - day DR rates changed by - 8.3 and 7.9 basis points respectively compared to the previous week, while overnight and 7 - day R rates changed by - 4.5 and 7.1 basis points respectively [22][23]. - ICD issuance was concentrated in state - owned banks, and the proportion of longer - term issuance increased. From May 26 to June 1, the issuance volume was 669.5 billion yuan, the maturity volume was 652.7 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.68 billion yuan. In terms of issuing banks, state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks issued 366.2, 92.2, 178.1, and 30.4 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 140.6, - 900, - 23, and - 24.9 billion yuan respectively [28]. 3.2 Long - Term Yield Adjustment and Recovery - Last week, long - term bond yields adjusted and then recovered. Market concerns about central bank actions and liquidity, uncertainties regarding the bond - and fund - product allocation enthusiasm of banks and insurance companies, and strong stock market performance all pressured the bond market. Eventually, long - term yields recovered as yields rose to around 1.73% and cross - month liquidity fluctuations were relatively stable. On May 30, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year government bonds changed by 0.6, - 1.4, - 0.1, 1, and - 4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week. The 10 - year government bond yield declined the most, by about 4 basis points, while the 1 - year Agricultural Development Bank bond yield increased the most, by 3.2 basis points [44]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, the operating rates were mixed. The blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the asphalt operating rate decreased. The average daily crude steel production in mid - May decreased year - on - year [54]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales remained high. The year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area fluctuated significantly. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by 30.7% and 0.9% respectively [54]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices diverged, and coal prices also showed divergence. In the mid - stream, building material prices, cement prices, and glass prices all decreased. Rebar production continued to decline slightly, inventory decreased at an accelerated pace, and futures prices declined. On the consumer side, vegetable prices increased, while fruit and pork prices decreased [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the US debt crisis and tariff shocks, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the gold sector [12]. - Steel prices are experiencing a significant decline, with the overall price index dropping by 1.90% [37]. - The supply and prices of new energy metals are both on the decline, indicating potential challenges in this sector [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The US debt crisis and tariff shocks are leading to a focus on gold investment opportunities, with expectations of continued high gold prices due to market conditions [12]. - Steel consumption has slightly increased, but overall prices are down, with rebar prices falling to 3217 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% [13][37]. 2. Steel Industry - Steel consumption for rebar reached 2.49 million tons, a slight increase of 0.63% week-on-week [17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 933 thousand tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar steel shows divergence, with long process profitability slightly increasing while short process profitability decreased [32]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in April 2025 was 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [41]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 61,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.17% [50]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper smelting fees (TC) have slightly increased, with the current fee at -43.50 USD/thousand tons, up 1.69% week-on-week [61]. - The overall production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang decreasing by 3.79% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the overall sentiment in the fixed - income market was relatively optimistic, but the cost - effectiveness of chasing the upward trend was decreasing. The supply pressure of secondary perpetual bonds throughout the year was controllable, and the risk mainly came from the non - redemption of small banks. It was recommended to control the duration at around 5Y and not to be too long. The strategy of appropriately extending the duration proposed at the beginning of May relatively outperformed [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Enterprise Perpetual Bonds 3.1.1 Primary Market - In May, 82 enterprise perpetual bonds were issued, raising a total of 103.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 37% compared to the previous month. The repayment scale dropped to 72.3 billion yuan, a significant 49% decrease month - on - month, resulting in a net inflow of 31.4 billion yuan. The proportion of issuance by AAA high - grade entities rose to 90%. The issuance costs of AAA and AA were 2.21% and 2.78% respectively, with the former decreasing by 8bp and the latter increasing by 9bp month - on - month, while the AA+ issuance rate dropped back to 2.77%. The top three industries in terms of issuance volume were public utilities, building decoration, and urban investment, with the comprehensive industry remaining in the fourth place [5][10]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - In May, the yields of industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds fluctuated downward. The risk - free yield decreased at the short end and increased at the long end, leading to a narrowing of the credit spread at the short end and a widening at the long end. The urban investment variety spread mainly narrowed, while the high - and low - grade trends of the industrial variety spread diverged. The trading volume of enterprise perpetual bonds decreased slightly, and the turnover rate increased slightly. No new cases of non - redemption of enterprise perpetual bonds occurred in May [5]. 3.2 Financial Perpetual and Subordinated Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - In May, the issuance volume of financial perpetual bonds increased significantly month - on - month, with the issuance of bank perpetual bonds doubling. A total of 11 financial perpetual bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 194.3 billion yuan, doubling month - on - month. The issuance scale of financial subordinated bonds decreased month - on - month, with the bank issuance scale shrinking slightly. A total of 111.7 billion yuan of financial subordinated bonds were issued in May, with bank secondary capital bonds accounting for the largest proportion [37][41]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - In May, the spreads of financial institutions narrowed across the board, with the narrowing of long - term bank spreads being particularly obvious. Except for the 27bp widening of the spread of AA+ insurance capital supplementary bonds, the spreads of other grades of financial institutions narrowed by 3 - 10bp. The total trading volume and turnover rate of bank perpetual bonds increased simultaneously, while the trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds decreased slightly, but the turnover rate also increased slightly. No new cases of non - redemption of bank secondary capital bonds occurred in May, but the redemption date of "20 Changchun Rural Commercial Secondary 01" was postponed by 3 months to September 29, 2025 [5][53][58]. 3.3 ABS 3.3.1 Primary Market - In May, a total of 159 ABS projects were issued, raising a total of 151.9 billion yuan. The number of projects decreased by 26% month - on - month, and the total financing amount decreased by 29% compared to April. Personal consumption loan ABS had the largest issuance scale, followed by financial leasing and accounts receivable. The financing cost of ABS projects decreased significantly [64]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - In May, the yields to maturity of ABS at all grades and terms decreased across the board, with a consistent decline of around 5bp. The long - term spreads narrowed more significantly. The secondary trading enthusiasm of ABS continued to decline month - on - month, and a small amount of discount trading occurred in Gemdale ABS [70][72]. 3.4 June Strategy for Secondary Perpetual Bonds - In May, the increased issuance of secondary perpetual bonds brought supply pressure, and there was a certain selling pressure in the secondary market. The turnover rate fluctuated upward at a high level, and the spread narrowed slightly. Looking forward to June, the annual supply pressure was controllable, and the risk mainly came from the non - redemption of small banks. If seeking returns, it was necessary to extend the duration of large banks, but the cost - effectiveness of continuing to chase the upward trend was decreasing. It was recommended to control the duration at around 5Y [5].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 波动行情中有韧性，继续下沉挖掘 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 | 报告发布日期 | | --- | 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘：固定收益市场 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期：固 | 2025-05-26 | | 定收益市场周观察 | | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 美债危机叠加关税冲击，关注黄金板块的 投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 22 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 积极关注稀土等战略金属板块的投资机 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 20 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，继续关注钢铁板 | 2025-05-11 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 19 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，积极关注钢铁板 | 2025-04-27 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 17 周） | | 有关分析师的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo with a target price of $135.58 per ADS [5][12]. Core Views - The Q1 performance of Pinduoduo fell short of expectations, with revenue of CNY 956.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.2%, but below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of CNY 1,016.0 billion [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was CNY 169.2 billion, a significant decline of 44.7% year-over-year, also missing the consensus estimate of CNY 278.8 billion [9]. - The report highlights that while advertising revenue showed good performance, commission income was under pressure due to increased merchant support policies and adjustments in the Temu business [9]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are adjusted to CNY 4,403 billion, CNY 4,883 billion, and CNY 5,250 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are revised to CNY 1,072 billion, CNY 1,317 billion, and CNY 1,499 billion for the same years [3][11]. - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the main e-commerce platform's value at $143.9 billion, the Duoduo grocery business at $5.9 billion, and the Temu business at $42.7 billion [12][14]. Key Financial Metrics - For 2025, the expected operating revenue is CNY 440,349 million, with a year-over-year growth of 12% [10]. - The projected operating profit for 2025 is CNY 112,152 million, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous year [10]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 61.1% and a net margin of 22.1% for 2025 [10].