证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐亚辉 执业证书：S0600520070005 tangyh@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 2024/7/8 2024/11/5 2025/3/5 2025/7/3 公用事业 沪深300 全球最大"电力超市"南方电力市场转入结 算试运行，关注交易主体资产重估机会 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary ] 2025 年 07 月 07 日 证券分析师 袁理 相关研究 《新疆/蒙西 136 号文省级方案发布， 国家发改委预判迎峰度夏保供形势》 2025-06-30 《中东局势缓和欧洲气价回落，高温 天气带动美国气价上涨，国内气价平 稳》 2025-06-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：南方区域电力现货市场进入试运行，22 万市场主体、日 交易 38 亿度，关注电力交易 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the yellow wine industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The yellow wine industry has undergone deep adjustments and is currently experiencing positive changes, with profit margins reaching a turning point and leading companies showing simultaneous growth in volume and price [5][11] - The CR2 market share of the yellow wine industry has continuously increased, with leading companies guiding industry transformation through product innovation and channel expansion [5][18] - The report draws parallels between the yellow wine industry and the beer industry, suggesting that supply-demand resonance can drive continuous upgrades in the yellow wine sector [26][31] - The success of Japan's sake industry in high-end transformation serves as a reference for the yellow wine industry, emphasizing the importance of brand culture, process innovation, and market expansion [55][60] Summary by Sections 1. Positive Changes in the Yellow Wine Industry - The yellow wine industry has seen a marginal turning point in profit margins, with leading companies like Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan showing significant growth in both volume and price [14][18] - In 2023, the revenue of large-scale enterprises in the yellow wine industry was 8.547 billion yuan, down 15.90% year-on-year, while total profit reached 1.558 billion yuan, up 23.06% year-on-year, resulting in a profit margin increase of 5.77 percentage points to 18.23% [14][18] 2. Market Share and Industry Transformation - The CR2 market share in the yellow wine industry has risen from 14.9% in 2017 to 37.4% in 2023, with Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan holding market shares of 20.9% and 16.5%, respectively [18][36] - The increase in market share is attributed to product innovation and channel expansion, leading to a high-end, youthful, and national effect [18][21] 3. Supply-Demand Resonance and Industry Upgrades - The report highlights the similarities between the current yellow wine industry and the beer industry, where supply-demand changes have driven industry upgrades since 2018 [26][31] - Leading companies in the yellow wine sector are adopting strategies focused on high-end, youthful, and national markets, similar to the beer industry's approach [26][27] 4. Lessons from Japan's Sake Industry - The Japanese sake industry has undergone several phases, including post-war recovery, rapid growth, economic downturns, and a focus on globalization and high-end products [55][60] - The success of the Dassai brand in Japan, which has seen its total sales increase from 4.6 billion yen in 2014 to 19.5 billion yen in 2024, serves as a model for the yellow wine industry [60][64]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·计算机设备 道通科技（688208） 2025 半年度业绩预告点评：业绩超预期，继 续看好"出海+AI"成长曲线 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,251 | 3,932 | 4,899 | 6,012 | 7,556 | | 同比（%） | 43.50 | 20.95 | 24.57 | 22.73 | 25.68 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 179.23 | 640.93 | 796.86 | 982.25 | 1,183.18 | | 同比（%） | 75.66 | 257.59 | 24.33 | 23.27 | 20.46 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.27 | 0.96 | 1.19 | 1.47 | 1.77 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 118.08 | 33.02 | 26.56 | 21.55 | 17.89 | [关键 ...

2 汽车周观点： 6月第4周乘用车环比+3.9%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月7日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 证券研究报告 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.6.16-2025.6.22 （ ➢本周复盘总结：六月第四周交强险56.9万辆，环比上周/上月周度+3.9%/+24.2%。 ➢本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SW摩托车及其他(+5.1%) >SW商用载客车(+4.4%) >SW乘 用车(+0.4%) >SW汽车（+0.1%）> SＷ商用载货车(0.1%) > SW汽车零部件(-0.7%) 。 本周已覆盖标的春风动力、爱玛科技、宇通客车、上汽集团、中国重汽涨幅前五。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发小鹏G7上市点评。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）小鹏G7定位为极致空间而生的家庭科技美学中大型SUV，602 km Max版搭载双Orin-X芯片定价19.58万元，702km Max版搭载双Orin-X芯片定价2 0.58万元，Ultra版搭载三颗图灵AI芯片定价22.58万元， ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250707 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20250630-20250704） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20250630-20250704）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 12 只，合计发行规模约 349.61 亿元，较上周增加 35.31 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年；发行人性质为央企子公司、中央国有企业、民营企业、地方 国有企业、中央金融企业；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为 北京市、上海市、天津市、河南省、贵州省、陕西省；发行债券种类为 中期票据、交易商协会 ABN、企业 ABS、超短期融资券、科创债、私 募公司债。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20250630-20250704）绿色债券周成交额合计 562 亿元，较上周减 少 173 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 278 亿元、218 亿元和 50 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比约 84.85%，市场热度持续；分 发行主体行业来看，成交量前三 ...

Macro Strategy - The overall consumption rate in China is low, with a 2019 resident consumption rate of 39.3%, compared to 55.2% in 43 countries, indicating room for improvement in both service and goods consumption [1][9] - China's service consumption rate is not low when compared to countries with a GDP per capita below $25,000, with a service consumption rate of 53.8% in 2019, higher than most countries at a similar development level [1][9] - The structure of service consumption in China shows a preference for basic services, with significant spending on housing, healthcare, and education, while entertainment and leisure services are less prioritized [1][9][10] Fixed Income - The report on Japanese residents' wealth allocation highlights a shift from non-financial assets to diversified financial assets since the 1990s, driven by low interest rates and demographic changes [2][12] - The proportion of non-financial assets in Japan decreased from 63.8% in 1990 to 42.7% in 2003, while financial assets increased to 57.3%, indicating a significant change in investment behavior [2][12] - The aging population in Japan has led to increased demand for savings and pension products, with insurance and pension assets becoming a significant part of financial asset allocation [2][12][13] Industry Analysis - The price of mainstream photoinitiators has increased, with notable price rises of 28% for 907 grade, 32% for 184 grade, and 11% for TPO grade since the beginning of the year, indicating a recovery in industry prosperity [6] - The supply side of the photoinitiator market is becoming concentrated due to the shutdown of major domestic manufacturers, which may lead to collaborative development among remaining firms [6] - The demand for photoinitiators is growing in emerging fields, driven by their essential role in light curing applications [6] Company Recommendations - The report on Xiaopeng Motors forecasts significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 947 billion, 1,676 billion, and 2,491 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 132%, 77%, and 49% respectively [7] - The report on Daotong Technology highlights the company's strategic response to new tariffs and its expansion in the overseas charging pile market, indicating strong growth potential [8] - The analysis of Libor Convertible Bonds suggests a listing price range of 128.57 to 142.73 yuan, with a good debt protection feature and an expected subscription rate of 0.0028% [4][15]

林泰新材（920106） 证券研究报告·北交所公司深度报告·汽车零部件 乘用车湿式纸基摩擦片国产先锋，混动放量 +产能释放驱动高成长 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 206.56 | 312.58 | 433.80 | 608.18 | 915.45 | | 同比 | 17.33 | 51.33 | 38.78 | 40.20 | 50.52 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 49.18 | 81.04 | 150.16 | 214.54 | 323.16 | | 同比 | 98.44 | 64.78 | 85.28 | 42.88 | 50.63 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.88 | 1.45 | 2.69 | 3.84 | 5.79 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 123.04 | 74.67 | 40.30 | 28.21 | 18.73 | [Table_Tag] [ ...

证券分析师 芦哲 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250706 6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延后至 9 月 2025 年 07 月 06 日 ◼ 6 月非农：新增就业超预期，但数据结构呈现出"强弱互现"的特征。 美国 6 月新增非农就业 14.7 万，预期 10.6 万，前值由 13.9 万上修至 14.4 万，前两月累计修正幅度由-9.5 万转为 1.6 万。6 月美国失业率 4.12%，预期 4.3%，前值 4.24%。劳动参与率 62.28%，预期 62.4%，前 值 62.37%。6 月时薪环比+0.22%，预期+0.3%，前值+0.39%；同比+3.71%， 预期+3.8%，前值+3.81%。从结构来看，14.7 万新增就业有 7.3 万来自 政府部门。虽然联邦政府就业延续缩编，本月减少 0.7 万，但州政府、 地方政府分别贡献 4.7、3.3 万就业。私人部门方面，教育医保（+5.1 万） 与休闲餐旅（+2 万）继续作为非农就业稳定的主要贡献者。如果剔除政 府、教育医保、休闲餐旅，其余行业对本次非农基本没有净正贡献。整 体来看，本次非农数据呈现出"强弱互现"的特征。一方面，非农强 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction PMI for June rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in business activity. The civil engineering PMI has remained above 55.0% for three consecutive months, reflecting accelerated construction in infrastructure projects. New order and business activity expectation indices have also improved, suggesting better project outlooks [2][11][22] - Infrastructure investment has remained stable in the first five months, with high growth rates in water transportation and water management sectors. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the issuance of special bonds and the continuity of fiscal policies on physical output [2][11] - The report highlights the completion of the 800 billion yuan "two重" construction project list, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of key projects and stimulate regional demand, particularly in central and western regions [2][11] - The report anticipates that increased fiscal policy support and improvements in financing will gradually manifest in investment and physical output in the second half of the year, with a focus on infrastructure investment and key regional construction [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two重" construction projects in 2025, with a total of 800 billion yuan planned for 1,459 projects, including major infrastructure and ecological restoration initiatives [14][15] - The June PMI data indicates a recovery in the construction sector, with the business activity index at 52.8% and the civil engineering index at 56.7%, suggesting robust construction activity [16][22] International Expansion - In the first five months of 2025, China's overseas contracting projects saw a 5.4% increase in revenue and a 13% rise in new contracts, with contracts in Belt and Road Initiative countries growing by 20.7% [3][12] - The report suggests that ongoing diplomatic negotiations and trade tensions may enhance cooperation in infrastructure projects, benefiting overseas engineering demand [3][12] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies high-growth areas in specialized manufacturing, energy conservation, and new energy-related infrastructure sectors, recommending companies with relevant transformation strategies [3][12] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Communications Construction, China Power Construction, and China Railway, with additional attention to China Nuclear Engineering and China Chemical Engineering [2][11]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 联储 7 月降息预期被修正，工业金属价格维 持震荡走势 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（6 月 30 日-7 月 4 日），有色板块本周上涨 1.02%，在全部一级行 业中排名中等。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中能源金属板块上涨 1.00%，工业金属板块上涨 1.46%，小金属板块下跌 0.18%，金属新材料板块上涨 0.41%，贵金属板块上涨 0.96%。工业金属方面，美联储 7 月降息预期被修正，美 元及美债利率短期上行，此外铜铝等工业金属下游开工率进一步下滑，本周工业金 属价格维持震荡走势。贵金属方面，本周随着美国国会两院通过了总统特朗普提出 的大规模减税及支出法案，美国联邦财政赤字率水平有望进一步提升，叠加 7 月 9 日的贸易关税暂停最后期限越来越近，不确定性正在重回机构视野，黄金做多美国 通胀的时间或已临近。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：需求下行风险加剧，铜价 Back 结构价差缩小预计短期冲高动能减弱降。截至 7 月 4 日，伦铜报收 9,852 美元/吨，周环比下跌 ...