证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20260104 节后 A 股行情推演 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 港股大涨原因分析及节后 A 股行情推演 元旦港股大涨，主要原因有三：一是港股相对 A 股有补涨逻辑；二是人民 币升值催动港股走强；三是强劲科技产业趋势是行情上涨的引擎。 港股与 A 股的联动性历来较强，此次港股上涨亦强化了节后 A 股走强的 预期。春节前后，市场环境通常对多方更为有利，A 股总体机会大于风险， 看好节后科技行情。宏观层面，内外环境均呈现积极变化，外部弱美元催 化叠加内部政策靠前发力。微观层面，资金面同样可能迎来改善，人民币 汇率回升、港股率先大涨有望提振市场情绪，险资、公募等机构亦在新年 伊始进行资产布局。 配置方向上，建议以景气成长为主。成长风格在春季行情中历来表现突出， 叠加今年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，新质生产力相关板块有望成为资 金配置重心。但需注意，1 月进入业绩预告密集期，注重景气度与业绩支 撑。建议重点关注三大方向：1）AI 产业链；2）"十五五"规划提名细分； 3）周期涨价。 ◼ 元旦期间全球要闻 ➢ 假期全球市场综述 元旦 ...

证券研究报告·公司研究简报·风电设备 天顺风能（002531） 短期承压，后续有望迎来修复拐点 2026 年 01 月 04 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,727 | 4,860 | 4,957 | 7,658 | 8,917 | | 同比（%） | 14.67 | (37.10) | 1.99 | 54.49 | 16.44 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 795.23 | 204.44 | 175.51 | 757.79 | 977.35 | | 同比（%） | 26.53 | (74.29) | (14.15) | 331.77 | 28.97 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.42 | 0.54 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 15.50 | 60.30 | 70.23 | 16.27 | 12.61 | [Table_ ...

Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the North Exchange A-shares had a total of 288 stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.019 billion yuan[19] - The North Exchange 50 Index fell by 1.55% during the week of December 29 to December 31, closing at 1,440.43 points[19] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was 19.439 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous week[19] New Stock Listings - The new stock Hengtong Light (stock code: 920045.BJ) was listed on December 31, 2025, with a revenue of 1.625 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 91.38%[3][27] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Hengtong Light was 224 million yuan, up 123.75% year-on-year[3][27] Investment Insights - The North Exchange's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios as of December 31, 2025, were 45.85 for A-shares, 43.62 for the ChiNext, 13.08 for the Shanghai Main Board, 23.21 for the Shenzhen Main Board, and 75.12 for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[4][28] - The report suggests focusing on technology sectors such as robotics, AI, commercial aerospace, and smart driving during the "spring market rally" period[4][28] Risks - Potential policy risks may affect investor enthusiasm and market heat[5][29] - Liquidity risks exist due to lower trading volumes compared to other boards like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext[5][29] - Earnings may not meet expectations due to external market changes, impacting stock prices negatively[5][29]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with the top three broad indices being the Sci-Tech 100 (0.62%), Sci-Tech Composite (0.15%), and Shanghai Composite (0.13%) [13] - The top three sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index were Oil & Petrochemicals (3.92%), National Defense & Military (3.05%), and Media (2.13%) [18] ETF Fund Statistics - The top three types of equity ETFs by fund size change were Theme Index ETF (5.685 billion CNY), Strategy Index ETF (1.945 billion CNY), and Style Index ETF (-161 million CNY) [9] - The largest equity ETFs by fund size change were Nonferrous Metals ETF (3.165 billion CNY), A500 ETF (1.935 billion CNY), and A500 ETF Huatai-PB (1.238 billion CNY) [10] January Market Outlook - The macro timing model for January 2026 scored 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of the Wande All A Index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.18% [19] - The average daily trading volume of the major index exceeded 20 billion CNY, indicating a gradual recovery in trading sentiment [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a proactive growth-oriented ETF allocation based on the optimistic outlook for January [67] - Key sectors to focus on include robotics, industrial nonferrous metals, and satellite communications, which showed significant net inflows [19] Risk Considerations - The model is based on historical data, which may not hold in the future, posing a risk of failure [69] - Potential macroeconomic underperformance and unexpected macro events are also highlighted as risks [69]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·通信 通信行业点评报告 2026 年通信投资机会梳理：算力为核，卫星 为翼 2026 年 01 月 04 日 证券分析师 欧子兴 执业证书：S0600525110002 ouzx@dwzq.com.cn -9% 2% 13% 24% 35% 46% 57% 68% 79% 90% 101% 2025/1/3 2025/5/3 2025/8/31 2025/12/29 通信 沪深300 相关研究 《 AI 算力方案多点开花，继续看好 光互联方向》 2025-11-27 《AI 算力跟踪深度（四）：怎么看算力 的天花板和成长性？》 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025-10-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 行业走势 ◼ 光互联核心受益海外算力与国内算力需求共振。展望 2026 年，海外算 力链将保持景气度向上。北美 CSP 对资本开支保持高投入预期，数据中 心建设热情高涨，以英伟达 GPU 和谷歌 TPU 为代表的算力芯片都在快 速上量，更下一代产品也将在 2026 年开始商用，与之配套的光互联全 ...

Group 1 - The "Spring Market" is gradually unfolding, with both internal and external environments showing positive changes, including favorable macroeconomic conditions and supportive policies [2][3] - The report suggests that the focus for investment should be on growth sectors, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to attract significant capital [3][4] - Key investment directions for January include AI industry chains, emerging industries, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals and chemicals [6][7] Group 2 - The report highlights specific companies as top investment picks, including North China Innovation (机械), Maiwei Co., Ltd. (机械), Wanhua Chemical (能源化工), Chipbond Technology (电子), Ping An Insurance (非银), Zijin Mining (煤炭有色钢铁), Giant Network (传媒互联网), AVIC High-Tech (军工), Sanhua Intelligent Control (电新), and Kaiter (北交所) [7][11] - North China Innovation is expected to benefit from increased domestic equipment adoption and the expansion of storage and AI chip production [14][20] - Maiwei Co., Ltd. is positioned to capitalize on the U.S. solar expansion due to a significant gap in battery production capacity [23][30] - Wanhua Chemical is projected to strengthen its market position in MDI and TDI, with expected price increases due to supply constraints [33][35] - Chipbond Technology is set to benefit from the growing demand for PCB and semiconductor equipment driven by AI [41][42] - Ping An Insurance is anticipated to maintain strong growth in new business value (NBV) and dividend yield, supported by its insurance operations [45][46] - Zijin Mining is expected to see price increases in gold and copper, with a clear growth path in production [49][50] - Giant Network's game "Supernatural Action Group" is expected to show significant potential for long-term growth and profitability [56][57] - AVIC High-Tech is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for aerospace composite materials as the C919 enters mass production [58][59] - Sanhua Intelligent Control is expected to see growth from its involvement in Tesla's supply chain and the increasing demand for cooling solutions in data centers and energy storage [65][66] - Kaiter is projected to benefit from the automotive electronics sector and its expansion into robotics and liquid cooling markets [72][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the primary market, from December 29, 2025, to December 31, 2025, 13 green bonds were newly issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of about 1.3398 billion yuan, a decrease of 936.3 million yuan compared to the previous week [1]. - In the secondary market, the weekly trading volume of green bonds from December 29, 2025, to December 31, 2025, totaled 49 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Non - financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest - rate bonds had the top three trading volumes [2]. - In terms of valuation deviation of the top 30 individual bonds, the overall deviation of the weekly trading average price valuation of green bonds was not large. The discount trading amplitude was smaller than the premium trading, and the discount trading proportion was greater than the premium trading [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - **Number and Scale**: 13 green bonds were newly issued, with a total scale of about 1.3398 billion yuan, a decrease of 936.3 million yuan from the previous week [1]. - **Issuance Tenure**: Mostly 2 - year and 24 - year bonds [1]. - **Issuer Nature**: Central state - owned enterprises, local state - owned enterprises, and foreign - owned enterprises [1]. - **Subject Rating**: Mostly AAA and AA+ ratings [1]. - **Issuer Region**: Hubei, Fujian, Anhui, Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Beijing [1]. - **Bond Types**: Medium - term notes, corporate ABS, and private placement corporate bonds [1]. Secondary Market Trading - **Total Trading Volume**: The weekly trading volume was 49 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.5 billion yuan from the previous week [2]. - **By Bond Type**: Non - financial corporate credit bonds (22.3 billion yuan), financial institution bonds (19.9 billion yuan), and interest - rate bonds (5.1 billion yuan) had the top three trading volumes [2]. - **By Issuance Tenure**: Green bonds with a term of less than 3 years had the highest trading volume, accounting for about 85.30% [2]. - **By Issuer Industry**: The top three industries in terms of trading volume were finance (22.1 billion yuan), public utilities (10.9 billion yuan), and transportation (170 million yuan) [2]. - **By Issuer Region**: Beijing (16.1 billion yuan), Guangdong (5.9 billion yuan), and Hubei (4.6 billion yuan) had the top three trading volumes [2]. Valuation Deviation of the Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Overall Situation**: The overall deviation of the weekly trading average price valuation was not large. The discount trading amplitude was smaller than the premium trading, and the discount trading proportion was greater than the premium trading [3]. - **Discount Bonds**: The top three discount bonds were 24 Guangzhou Kaide MTN001B (- 0.6391%), GC Tianhui 03 (- 0.1777%), and 25 Xuzhou Transportation ABN001 Priority (- 0.1698%). The subject industries were mainly real estate, steel, and finance, and the regions were mainly Guizhou, Hebei, and Guangdong [3]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top three premium bonds were 25 Puzhi G3 (1.7539%), 24 Xinyang G1 (0.7196%), and 25 Three Gorges GN010 (0.4792%). The subject industries were mainly finance, public utilities, and energy, and the regions were mainly Guangdong, Hubei, and Beijing [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - The implementation of the third phase of fee reduction for public funds is expected to guide the development of equity funds and mitigate the impact on short-term bond funds [5] - The overall fee reduction is estimated to be around 30 billion yuan, with a reduction rate of approximately 34% [5] - Key changes in the final draft include differentiated exemptions for redemption fees on bond funds and ETFs, encouraging long-term holding by investors [5] - The fee structure for subscription and sales service fees has been adjusted, with significant reductions across various fund types, promoting a more favorable investment environment [5][6] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the "Management Regulations on Sales Fees for Open-End Securities Investment Funds," which took effect on January 1 [5] - The new regulations lower the maximum subscription and sales service fees for equity and mixed funds, with reductions from 1.2%/1.5% to 0.8%/0.5% respectively [6] Impact on Fund Types - For equity and mixed funds, the new regulations encourage long-term holding by eliminating sales service fees for holdings over one year [7] - Bond funds see a larger fee reduction, with the previous punitive redemption fees being adjusted to improve their attractiveness [7] - Money market funds will continue to charge sales service fees for holdings over one year, but overall fee structures are optimized to enhance yield [7] Fee Reduction Phases - The fee reduction initiative is structured in three phases, cumulatively expected to save investors 50 billion yuan annually [5] - The first phase focused on reducing management and custody fees, while the second phase targeted transaction commission reductions [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has introduced a new action plan for the digital RMB, transitioning from a "cash-type 1.0" to a "deposit currency-type 2.0" starting January 1, 2026. This upgrade includes a redefinition of liabilities and a new macro framework [3]. - The new digital RMB framework aims to enhance the management and infrastructure of digital currency, improving liquidity management and regulatory efficiency. It introduces a wallet system based on accounts, a "currency string" for value transfer, and a smart contract ecosystem [3]. - The investment implications suggest that the digital RMB upgrade will drive demand for financial IT services, payment acceptance, and telecom operators, with specific companies recommended for investment [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report highlights a significant upgrade in the digital RMB, which is expected to enhance its role as a core banking liability and infrastructure, moving beyond pilot products to mainstream adoption [3]. Mechanism and Technical Architecture - The new mechanism emphasizes the redefinition of customer balances in commercial banks as liabilities, with a focus on risk management and compliance. The technical architecture includes an upgraded wallet system and smart contracts to facilitate programmable digital payments [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hengsheng Electronics, Jingbeifang, Changliang Technology, and Yuxin Technology in the financial IT sector. For payment acceptance, companies such as Newland, Lakala, and Hengyin Technology are recommended. Telecom operators like China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile are also highlighted as beneficiaries of the new digital infrastructure [3].

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may still exceed expectations due to two main factors: a rebound in prices leading to increased fiscal revenue and a significant amount of fiscal "surplus" carried over from 2025. Specifically, a 1.8 percentage point increase in PPI could generate approximately 260 billion yuan in additional tax revenue, equivalent to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the deficit ratio. Additionally, the fiscal surplus may exceed 500 billion yuan, potentially enhancing the growth rate of general public budget expenditure by about 2.6 percentage points [1][19]. Industry Insights Electronic Industry - The report highlights that the domestic computing power industry is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in 2026, with domestic computing chip leaders likely entering a performance realization phase. The demand for domestic GPUs is anticipated to benefit from capacity releases due to advanced process expansions. The competition among domestic computing chip participants for market share is expected to drive the importance of AI ASIC service providers within the supply chain. Key recommendations include companies like Cambricon and Shengke Communication [9]. 3D DRAM - The report indicates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for 3D DRAM, driven by the rapid increase in storage demand from AI hardware deployment. The technology is expected to support various applications, including robotics, AIoT, and automotive sectors. The report recommends companies such as GigaDevice and Beijing Junzheng as key players in this space [10]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is projected to see improvements in both liabilities and assets, with significant upward valuation potential. The demand for insurance remains strong, and the shift towards dividend insurance is expected to optimize liability costs. The report notes that the current valuation of the insurance sector is at historical lows, suggesting a "buy" rating for the industry [12]. Environmental Industry - The report emphasizes the value of the waste incineration sector, driven by declining capital expenditures and improving operating cash flows. The acceleration of national subsidies is expected to enhance cash flow, with projections indicating that the sector's dividend potential could increase significantly as capital expenditures normalize [16]. Computer Industry - The report discusses the intersection of state-owned enterprise reform and local revenue enhancement, predicting that 2026 will see intensified management of local state-owned enterprises, leading to accelerated capital operations [13][14]. Space Computing - The report identifies the space computing industry as a rapidly evolving field, crucial for addressing global computing resource bottlenecks. It highlights the strategic importance of this sector and recommends focusing on companies with technological advantages in key areas [15]. Green Bonds - The report tracks the issuance of green bonds, noting an increase in issuance and a decrease in trading volume in the secondary market. This reflects the growing interest in sustainable finance and the potential for investment opportunities in this area [4][8]. Capital Market Trends - The report outlines trends in the capital markets, including the performance of various commodities and the impact of macroeconomic factors on pricing. It notes that the copper market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints and demand fluctuations, while aluminum prices are also on the rise due to production capacity increases [11]. AI and Technology - The report forecasts that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major tech companies expected to launch innovative products. The integration of AI into consumer electronics is anticipated to create new market opportunities [9][18].