证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 2025 年城投非标融资及信用舆情数据全览 2025 年全国城投信托融资及规模均同比下降 50%以上。2025 年，全国城投公 司及其子公司共发生信托融资 2669 笔，融资规模共计 1627 亿元。区域层面， 2025 年共有 21 省城投主体涉及信托融资，除甘肃和北京外，其余各省数量及 规模均有所下降，吉林、天津等地区降幅领先。 租赁融资：监管指导金租稳妥退出城投业务，融资规模继续小幅下降 监管指导推动金租稳妥退出城投业务。2024 年 5 月 9 日，金监局非银机构监 管司党支部在中国银行保险报发表《严控风险 发挥特色功能 推动非银机构更 好服务高质量发展》一文，其中提到：推动金融租赁公司积极稳妥退出融资平 台业务，严禁将不适格租赁物进行重组、续作。 2025 年全国城投租赁融资数量同比上升 2%，规模同比下降 8%。2025 年，全 国城投公司及其子公司共发生租赁融资 9029 笔，规模合计 9043 亿元。区域 层面，2025 年 31 省均有城投主体涉及租赁融资，其中 12 省数量同比减少， 20 省规模同比下降。 城投信用风险舆情有所减少，债务风险继续缓释 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 财政的三个年度级别转折 ——12 月财政数据点评 事 项 12 月广义财政收入同比-18.5%，11 月同比-5.2%；12 月广义财政支出同比-0.7%， 11 月同比-1.7%。2025 年广义财政收入同比-2.9%，2024 年同比-2.0%，2025 年 广义财政支出同比 3.7%，2024 年同比 2.7%。 核心观点 对于 2025 年财政运行，我们观察到债务表述（从逆周期到重提跨周期）、收 入方向（从负反馈到正反馈）、支出结构（从投资于物到投资于人）三个年度 级别转折，或对投资者感知 2026 年财政有启发。 主要观点 一、财政的三个年度级别转折 （一）债务表述的转折：从逆周期到重提跨周期 2024 年底，中央经济工作会议要求加强超常规"逆周期"调节，对应 2025 年 财政部"加大逆周期调节力度"：狭义赤字率提升 1 个百分点至 4%，新增政 府债务规模 11.86 万亿元，比上年增加 2.9 万亿元，这些都远超前几年的平均 水平。此外，我们测算的各口径广义赤字率提升也都不低于 1 个百分点（详见 正文）。 2025 年底，中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期调节 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [18]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in global AIDC demand, with major cloud service providers increasing capital expenditures and adjusting pricing strategies. For instance, Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $125 billion, a 73% year-on-year increase [2]. - The report emphasizes that the AIDC industry is entering a new structural expansion cycle, driven by the scarcity of computing power and rising costs in the supply chain, including a forecasted 12% CAGR growth in the global cloud computing market from approximately $1.29 trillion in 2025 to about $2.28 trillion by 2030 [7]. - The competition in the AI model space is intensifying, with companies like Alibaba and Tencent rapidly advancing their AI capabilities, which is expected to drive backend demand for computing resources [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The AIDC market is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.5%, shifting the industry's core barriers from capital investment to technology integration and operational efficiency [7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the demand for AIDC is being fueled by the rapid evolution of AI models, which necessitates significant computational resources. This shift is prompting cloud service providers to raise prices, breaking a long-standing trend of price reductions in the industry [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key players across different segments: 1. Cloud Computing: Alibaba, NET, Shenxinfu, Kingsoft Cloud, New Idea Network Group, and UCloud [7] 2. AIDC: Runze Technology, Baoxin Software, Data Port, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, and Yunsai Zhili [7] 3. Computing Services: Xiechuang Data, Hongjing Technology, Dazhi Technology, Youfang Technology, Litong Electronics, and Zhiwei Intelligent [7] 4. CDN: Wangsu Technology [7] 5. Chips: Haiguang Information, Cambrian, Muxi Shares, Tianshu Zhixin, Moer Thread, and Longxin Zhongke [7] 6. Large Models: Minimax, Zhipu, and iFlytek [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the swimming pool robot industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The global swimming pool cleaning expenditure exceeds $10 billion, with a projected increase to $12.9 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 7.3% from 2019 to 2024 [10][19]. - The number of swimming pools worldwide is expected to grow from approximately 32.9 million in 2024 to 39.3 million by 2029, with a CAGR of 4.3% from 2019 to 2024 [10]. - The penetration rate of cordless pool robots is anticipated to rise significantly from 4.0% in 2019 to 44.5% in 2024, driven by their advantages over traditional corded models [25]. Industry Overview Industry Scale - The global swimming pool cleaning expenditure is projected to reach $12.9 billion by 2024, up from $9 billion in 2019, with a CAGR of 7.3% [10][19]. - The global pool robot shipment volume is expected to increase from 2.5 million units in 2019 to 4.5 million units in 2024, corresponding to a CAGR of 12.0% [18][19]. Industry Structure - The market is characterized by a "dual super, many strong" structure, with Maytronics and Fluidra holding market shares of 34.8% and 18.5%, respectively, while Wangyuan Technology leads the cordless segment with a 19.7% market share [29][30]. Company Profile: Wangyuan Technology - Wangyuan Technology has successfully transitioned from an ODM to an OBM model, establishing its own brands, WYBOT and Winny, and expanding its product matrix to include cordless, corded, and handheld pool cleaning solutions [2][29]. - The company's revenue has grown from 57 million yuan in 2019 to 544 million yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 57.0% [33]. - The gross margin is projected to be 58.0% in 2024, with a further increase to 65.2% in the first half of 2025, despite a decline in net margin due to increased sales expenses [38][39].

Group 1: Kevin Warsh's Nomination and Market Impact - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is not following the linear logic previously expected by investors, indicating a shift in market dynamics[3] - Warsh is seen as a "hawk" on inflation, advocating for interest rate cuts while attempting to restore market and fiscal discipline through quantitative tightening[3] - His approach aims to redirect excess liquidity from financial markets into the real economy and the U.S. Treasury market[3] Group 2: Candidate Comparison and Selection Rationale - Among the four candidates considered, Warsh had the lowest compliance probability (30%-40%), contrasting with Kevin Hassett's 90%-95%[7] - The choice of Warsh was influenced by the need to appease traditional Republican establishment figures and address rising pressures in the U.S. Treasury market[10] - Warsh's nomination is seen as a strategic move to avoid potential market turmoil that could arise from selecting a more compliant candidate like Hassett[10] Group 3: Warsh's Monetary Policy Philosophy - Warsh criticizes the combination of strong regulation and quantitative easing, viewing it as financial repression that distorts long-term Treasury yields[11] - He advocates for restoring market discipline, which includes allowing long-term Treasury yields to reflect inflation expectations and debt risks[11] - His policy aims to lower financing costs for small and medium enterprises, aligning with Trump's economic growth narrative[14] Group 4: Implications for Fiscal Policy - Warsh's monetary policy approach necessitates a reduction in the duration of outstanding U.S. Treasury debt to manage interest expenses effectively[15] - The potential for a significant decrease in interest expenses as a percentage of GDP is highlighted, drawing parallels to historical fiscal strategies post-World War II[17] - Warsh's policies are designed to balance the need for fiscal discipline while supporting economic growth through lower financing costs[20]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 ❖ 近一周，中央层面政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容： 1、外交：1 月 29 日，商务部召开例行发布会，有记者提问"美国贸易代表日 前在达沃斯向记者表示，在可能于 4 月举行的中美领导人会晤之前，中美双 方有机会开启新一轮经贸谈判"。 2、反腐：1 月 27 日，总理在国务院第四次廉政工作会议上指出，深刻理解和 把握管党治党越往后越严、一严到底的鲜明立场，树立和践行正确政绩观。 3、产业：一是光伏反内卷。1 月 28 日，工信部部长召开光伏行业企业家座谈 会，提出当前形势下，"反内卷"是光伏行业规范治理的主要矛盾，要求综合运 用产能控制等手段坚决破除行业内卷式竞争。二是发电侧容量电价改革。1 月 30 日，国家发改委等引发通知，对现行煤电、气电、抽水蓄能容量电价机制 进行了完善，并首次在国家层面明确建立电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制。 4、资本市场：1 月 30 日，证监会召开资本市场"十五五"规划上市公司座谈会， 吴清主席在会上提出，高质量编制和实施好资本市场"十五五"规划，全力巩 固资本市场稳中向好势头，聚焦持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革、提高制度 包容性适应性，抓紧 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to drive demand, with Moutai's sales volume and price exceeding expectations. The i Moutai reform is effectively expanding consumer reach and driving demand through both online and offline channels [4][5]. - The report highlights a significant increase in Moutai's sales and price, with the price of the flying Moutai reaching 1,600 yuan, indicating strong market demand and potential supply shortages [4]. - The performance of high-value products is also noted, with inventory levels low and demand for premium and aged wines showing positive growth [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sales performance of Moutai and other leading brands during the Spring Festival, as they are expected to benefit significantly from seasonal demand [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The food and beverage industry consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 440.13 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 429.61 billion yuan [1]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -0.3%, -3.5% over six months, and 0.1% over twelve months. The relative performance shows a decline of -1.5% over one month, -16.9% over six months, and -23.2% over twelve months [2]. Sales and Inventory Tracking - Moutai's repayment and shipment rates are reported at over 30%, with significant sales growth observed in various regions. Other brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are experiencing mixed performance, with some regions reporting stable sales while others face declines [6].

证 券 研 究 报 告 东鹏饮料（605499）跟踪点评 强推（维持） 携手三林共拓印尼，海外扩张更进一步 目标价：340 元 事项： 评论 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15,839 | 20,932 | 26,110 | 30,621 | | 同比增速(%) | 40.6% | 32.2% | 24.7% | 17.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,326 | 4,486 | 5,702 | 6,860 | | 同比增速(%) | 63.1% | 34.9% | 27.1% | 20.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 6.40 | 8.63 | 10.97 | 13.19 | | 市盈率(倍) | 39 | 29 | 23 | 19 | | 市净率(倍) | 16.9 | 13.6 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价 公司研究 非 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the consumer services industry, particularly focusing on the upcoming Spring Festival consumption boost [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Spring Festival consumption season is set to begin, with various local governments implementing consumption-boosting policies, which are expected to drive strong market performance [1][2]. - Three major highlights of the consumption promotion activities are identified: unprecedented subsidy levels directly reaching consumers, innovative consumption scenarios integrating various sectors, and the synergy between online and offline channels through digital empowerment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The consumer services industry is rated as "Recommended" with a focus on benefiting companies in dining, hotels, tourism, duty-free, and retail sectors due to the anticipated recovery in consumer enthusiasm [1][3]. Key Highlights of Consumption Promotion - Subsidies are at an all-time high, with local governments offering consumption vouchers and subsidies exceeding 100 million yuan in various provinces, which is expected to enhance consumer purchasing power [2]. - Innovative consumption scenarios are being developed, moving beyond traditional discounts to immersive experiences that combine culture, tourism, and sports, thereby revitalizing traditional service sectors [2]. - The integration of online and offline channels is becoming more pronounced, with e-commerce platforms actively participating in promotional activities, enhancing efficiency and broadening the consumption landscape [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a robust recovery in the Spring Festival consumption market in 2026, with data potentially exceeding market expectations, laying a solid foundation for sustained consumer market recovery throughout the year [3].

❖ 评论： 证 券 研 究 报 告 KLA（KLAC）FY26Q2 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 CY2025 营收创新高，2026 年锁定 WFE 份额 提升+先进封装双轮驱动 ❖ 事项： 2026 年 1 月 30 日 KLA 发布 FY26Q2 报告，并召开业绩说明会。公司财务季 度 FY26Q2 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，即自然季度 CY2025Q4。CY25Q4，公司 实现营收 32.97 亿美元，同比增长 7%，环比增长 3%；Non-GAAP 毛利率 62.6%。 CY 2025 全年，公司实现营收 127.4 亿美元，同比增长 17%。Non-GAAP 毛利 率 62.8%。 1. 业绩情况：CY2025Q4（FY2026Q2），KLA 实现营收 32.97 亿美元，同比增 长 7%，环比增长 3%，高于指导范围中值（32.25±1.5 亿美元）。Non-GAAP 毛 利率 62.6%，高于指导范围中值（62%±1pct），主要受益于服务业务表现超预 期及制造效率提升。 CY2025 全年，KLA 实现营收 127.4 亿美元，同比增长 17%。Non-GAAP 毛利 率 62.8% ...