证 券 研 究 报 告 公募风格偏向价值，散户资金净流入重回低位 ——投资者温度计第28期 2025年6月9日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 上周市场小幅上行，市场热点相对杂乱之下，自媒体热度较为平淡。 • 公募抱团趋势增强，风格偏向价值，行业偏向周期、金融；24/9/18至今公募重仓股三成领涨，行业集中于电子、 医药、计算机等。 • 最近一周以小单衡量的沪深两市A股散户资金净流入370.0亿元，较前值减少409.0亿元，处过去五年5.8%分位， 净流入规模重回低位仅略高于春节期间；融资资金净流入71.9亿元，较上周增加72.9亿元。 1.1、自媒体：热度持续下降 证 券 研 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the humanoid robot industry as "Recommended," expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing continuous development with new technologies being iterated and the mass production process accelerating. The report suggests focusing on companies involved in various components such as actuators, reducers, sensors, motors, and equipment [4]. Industry Basic Data - The humanoid robot industry consists of 301 listed companies with a total market value of 49,118.76 billion and a circulating market value of 42,830.18 billion [1]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the humanoid robot industry over the past month is 1.5%, with a 6-month performance of -8.4% and a 12-month performance of 7.6%. The relative performance shows a decline of 0.2% over the past month and 5.9% over the past 6 months [2]. Related Research Reports - The report references several related studies, including a monthly data tracking report on the wind power industry and a report on the electric vehicle industry, indicating ongoing research and interest in related sectors [4]. Recent Developments - Notable events include the release of a humanoid robot by PepsiCo, advancements in flexible tactile sensors by Fulei New Materials, and the bankruptcy announcement of Aldebaran, highlighting both innovation and challenges within the industry [4].

Group 1: Overview of Overseas Business in US Stocks - Approximately 30% of revenue for S&P 500 companies comes from overseas, while small companies (represented by Russell 2000) have about 20%[2] - Technology (51%), materials (38%), healthcare (35%), and communications (34%) have the highest exposure to overseas business[2] - S&P 500 companies generally have a higher overseas revenue share and profit margins compared to domestic operations, with Apple having 57% of its revenue from overseas and a profit margin of 42%[2] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The technology sector has the largest overseas revenue share, exceeding 50%, while materials, healthcare, and communications also show significant overseas revenue contributions[4] - Major companies in the technology sector, such as Apple (57%) and Nvidia (56%), have overseas revenue shares above the industry average of 51%[5] - In the communications sector, companies like Alphabet (46%) and Meta (56%) also exceed the industry average of 34% for overseas revenue[5] Group 3: Growth and Profitability Trends - Non-US revenue growth for S&P 500 companies is generally higher than total revenue growth, indicating a reliance on overseas markets[10] - The communications sector shows the highest growth in overseas revenue, consistently outpacing total revenue growth since 2017[10] - Profit margins for overseas operations in certain sectors, such as consumer staples and technology, are higher than domestic margins, with an average overseas profit margin of 33% for technology[11] Group 4: China Market Dependency - Among S&P 500 companies disclosing Chinese revenue, technology and communications sectors have a higher dependency, with 25% of their revenue coming from China, above the overall average of 17%[4] - Recent trends show that revenue growth from China for these sectors has slowed compared to overall growth, potentially due to US restrictions on technology exports to China[4]

Group 1: Overview of Overseas Business in US Stocks - Approximately 30% of non-US revenue in the S&P 500 index, while small enterprises (represented by Russell 2000) have about 20%[3] - Technology (51%), Materials (38%), Healthcare (35%), and Communications (34%) have the highest overseas revenue exposure[4] - S&P 500 companies generally have higher overseas revenue ratios and profit margins compared to domestic operations, e.g., Apple’s overseas revenue is 57% with a profit margin of 42%[22] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - Technology and Communications sectors account for nearly half of the S&P 500 market capitalization, indicating high reliance on overseas business[4] - Among the top five companies in the S&P 500, over half have overseas business ratios exceeding their industry averages[5] - Asian and European markets contribute significantly to overseas revenue, with Asia at 45% and Europe at 40%[6] Group 3: Growth and Profitability - Non-US revenue growth is generally higher than total revenue growth for S&P 500 companies, indicating a greater reliance on overseas markets[8] - Certain industries, such as Consumer Staples and Technology, show higher profit margins for overseas operations compared to domestic ones, e.g., Consumer Staples at 37%[9] - Companies like Apple and Amazon have overseas profit margins that surpass their domestic margins, highlighting the profitability of international operations[60] Group 4: China Market Dependency - For S&P 500 companies disclosing Chinese business, Technology and Communications sectors have a higher revenue share from China (25.1%) compared to the overall average (16.5%)[64] - Recent trends show that revenue growth from China for these sectors has lagged behind overall growth, possibly due to US restrictions on technology[64]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 如何观察"以旧换新"的速度？ ❖ 以旧换新：4 月中旬以来在提速 1、数据与方法：基于商务部不定期公布的 5 大类消费品（汽车、家电、电动 车、家装厨卫、数码）以旧换新进度数据，可计算某个时间段内的日均换新数 量，我们以此观察消费品换新的速度。 2、近期消费品换新速度如何？ 5 月，消费品换新或在提速，结构上：汽车下、 家电升、电动车平。 3、物价：海外大宗品价格明显反弹，黄金、原油、铜均上涨。RJ/CRB 商品 价格指数上涨 3.6%；COMEX 黄金收于 3308.2 美金/盎司，上涨 0.6%；LME 三个月铜价上涨 1.6%；美油、布油分别上涨 6.2%、4%。 （二）景气向下 1）汽车，有所放缓，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 3.8 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 3.9 万台；2024 年 9-12 月（2024.8.23~2024.12.31）日均 4.7 万台。 2）家电，有所提速，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 82.9 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 63 万台；受数据限制，观察 2024 年 10- ...

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Impact - The total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $200 billion by March 2025, surpassing the holdings of major foreign investors like China in short-term U.S. securities[2] - Stablecoins, particularly Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), significantly influence the short-term debt market, purchasing nearly $40 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in 2024[2] - A net inflow of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease of approximately 2-2.5 basis points in the 3-month Treasury yield within 10 days[1] Group 2: Empirical Findings - The study found that a $3.5 billion inflow of stablecoins correlates with a decline in the 3-month Treasury yield of up to 25 basis points over 30 days[3] - The impact of stablecoin outflows on Treasury yields is more pronounced, with a $3.5 billion outflow resulting in an increase of approximately 6-8 basis points[1] - USDT contributes about -1.54 basis points to the yield impact, accounting for 70% of the total effect, while USDC contributes around 19%[4] Group 3: Policy Implications - The rapid expansion of the stablecoin market may significantly lower short-term Treasury yields, potentially disrupting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission[5] - Regulatory measures for standardized and transparent reserve reporting are crucial to mitigate systemic risks associated with concentrated Treasury holdings by stablecoins[5] - The strong demand for Treasuries from stablecoins could exacerbate the "safe asset scarcity" issue faced by non-bank financial institutions, affecting liquidity premiums[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, emphasizing the positive outlook for oil refining demand and the importance of overseas equipment demand [2]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle due to increased monetary and fiscal policies, with a focus on domestic demand stimulation [8]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in various sectors, including industrial automation, robotics, machine tools, and engineering machinery, with specific companies recommended for investment [8]. Summary by Sections Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Investment Ratings - Companies such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 法兰泰克 (Flantech), and 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected EPS growth from 2025 to 2027 [3]. - 汇川技术 is expected to achieve an EPS of 3.01 yuan by 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 30.27 in 2025 to 21.29 in 2027 [3]. - 法兰泰克's EPS is projected to grow to 1.04 yuan by 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 14.72 to 9.35 over the same period [3]. Industry and Company Investment Views - The report identifies three key directions for robotics: marginal changes in the main chain, product-to-customer transitions, and the development of core components [8]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies in the industrial control sector, such as 汇川技术 and 信捷电气, as well as those in the robotics sector like 柯力传感 (Keli Sensor) and 东华测试 (Donghua Testing) [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of oil refining equipment demand due to increased investments in fossil energy, particularly in emerging markets [8]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides macroeconomic data, including manufacturing PMI and fixed asset investment growth rates, which are crucial for understanding the industry's performance [27][28]. - The mechanical sector's performance is tracked against major indices, showing a 1.1% increase in the mechanical sector during the reporting week [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the new materials sector [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has shown resilience, outperforming the broader market and the basic chemicals sector, with a weekly change of 2.11% compared to 1.85% for the basic chemicals index [11]. - The report highlights a recovery in prices for certain materials, with SAF Europe FOB prices increasing by 6.51% and oxygen prices rising by 0.24% [20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in response to international trade tensions, particularly in the new materials sector [10]. Industry Updates - The easing of US-China trade tensions has led to a replenishment window in trade, resulting in increased inquiries and rising prices for oil and chemical products [9]. - The report notes that the ROE-PB for the chemical industry has reached new lows, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector [9]. - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors, particularly in new materials that are critical for self-sufficiency and innovation [9][10]. Market Performance - The report provides data on the performance of various materials, indicating that lithium iron phosphate prices have decreased by 3.81%, while SAF China FOB prices fell by 2.94% [20]. - The report lists the top-performing new materials stocks, including Lingpai Technology and Suli Co., which have seen significant weekly gains [25]. Regulatory Developments - The report discusses the investigation into DuPont China by the State Administration for Market Regulation, which may benefit domestic production efforts [12]. - New safety regulations for electric vehicle batteries will be enforced starting July 1, 2026, which may drive innovation in battery materials [13]. Sector Trends - The report identifies key areas for investment within the new materials sector, including high-tech materials that are currently dominated by foreign companies and are in urgent need of domestic alternatives [17][18]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the renewable energy materials sector, particularly in hydrogen and battery technologies [15][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [5][55]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in wind power project bidding and winning bids, with a total of 40.2GW of wind turbine bids from January to May, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [2][11]. - The winning bids for wind power from January to May reached 39.5GW, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [3][19]. - The report emphasizes three main investment lines in the wind power sector: high domestic offshore wind project reserves, robust land wind bidding in 2024, and regional growth in overseas installations [40]. Summary by Sections Bidding Volume - From January to May, wind turbine bidding totaled 40.2GW, with offshore and onshore bids at 3.6GW and 36.6GW respectively, marking increases of 5.5% and 15.5% year-on-year [11][19]. - In May, offshore and onshore bids were 0.5GW and 7.4GW respectively, with total wind power bidding at 7.9GW, showing a slight decrease compared to previous months [11][19]. Winning Bids - The total winning bids for wind power from January to May were 39.5GW, with offshore and onshore winning bids at 4.3GW and 35.2GW respectively, indicating increases of 48.5% and 5.4% year-on-year [19][20]. - In May, the winning bids were 1GW for offshore and 7.2GW for onshore, with a total of 8.1GW, reflecting a significant decrease compared to previous months [19][20]. Winning Bid Prices - The average winning bid prices in May were 2568 yuan/kW for offshore and 1558 yuan/kW for onshore, with slight month-on-month decreases of 1.4% and 0.6% respectively [35][39]. - The report notes that most major manufacturers had winning bid prices exceeding 1500 yuan/kW for onshore projects [39]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment lines: high offshore wind project reserves, increased land wind bidding in 2024, and growth in overseas installations [40]. - Recommended companies include Mingyang Smart Energy, Oriental Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and others [40].

证 券 研 究 报 告 传媒行业周观察（20250602-20250606） 可灵 AI 商业化提速，长线看好 IP 情绪消费 推荐（维持） 赛道 【市场观点】 行业研究 传媒 2025 年 06 月 08 日 邮箱：zhaohainan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070016 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 140 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 16,029.50 | 1.60 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 14,573.62 | 1.83 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 1.7% | -5.0% | 38.3% | | 相对表现 | -0.0% | -2.5% | 30.5% | -11% 9% 30% 50% 24/06 24/08 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/06 2024-06-11~2025-06-06 传媒 沪深300 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘欣 电话：010-63214660 ...