宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 如何观察"以旧换新"的速度？ ❖ 以旧换新：4 月中旬以来在提速 1、数据与方法：基于商务部不定期公布的 5 大类消费品（汽车、家电、电动 车、家装厨卫、数码）以旧换新进度数据，可计算某个时间段内的日均换新数 量，我们以此观察消费品换新的速度。 2、近期消费品换新速度如何？ 5 月，消费品换新或在提速，结构上：汽车下、 家电升、电动车平。 3、物价：海外大宗品价格明显反弹，黄金、原油、铜均上涨。RJ/CRB 商品 价格指数上涨 3.6%；COMEX 黄金收于 3308.2 美金/盎司，上涨 0.6%；LME 三个月铜价上涨 1.6%；美油、布油分别上涨 6.2%、4%。 （二）景气向下 1）汽车，有所放缓，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 3.8 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 3.9 万台；2024 年 9-12 月（2024.8.23~2024.12.31）日均 4.7 万台。 2）家电，有所提速，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 82.9 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 63 万台；受数据限制，观察 2024 年 10- ...

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Impact - The total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $200 billion by March 2025, surpassing the holdings of major foreign investors like China in short-term U.S. securities[2] - Stablecoins, particularly Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), significantly influence the short-term debt market, purchasing nearly $40 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in 2024[2] - A net inflow of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease of approximately 2-2.5 basis points in the 3-month Treasury yield within 10 days[1] Group 2: Empirical Findings - The study found that a $3.5 billion inflow of stablecoins correlates with a decline in the 3-month Treasury yield of up to 25 basis points over 30 days[3] - The impact of stablecoin outflows on Treasury yields is more pronounced, with a $3.5 billion outflow resulting in an increase of approximately 6-8 basis points[1] - USDT contributes about -1.54 basis points to the yield impact, accounting for 70% of the total effect, while USDC contributes around 19%[4] Group 3: Policy Implications - The rapid expansion of the stablecoin market may significantly lower short-term Treasury yields, potentially disrupting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission[5] - Regulatory measures for standardized and transparent reserve reporting are crucial to mitigate systemic risks associated with concentrated Treasury holdings by stablecoins[5] - The strong demand for Treasuries from stablecoins could exacerbate the "safe asset scarcity" issue faced by non-bank financial institutions, affecting liquidity premiums[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, emphasizing the positive outlook for oil refining demand and the importance of overseas equipment demand [2]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle due to increased monetary and fiscal policies, with a focus on domestic demand stimulation [8]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in various sectors, including industrial automation, robotics, machine tools, and engineering machinery, with specific companies recommended for investment [8]. Summary by Sections Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Investment Ratings - Companies such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 法兰泰克 (Flantech), and 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected EPS growth from 2025 to 2027 [3]. - 汇川技术 is expected to achieve an EPS of 3.01 yuan by 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 30.27 in 2025 to 21.29 in 2027 [3]. - 法兰泰克's EPS is projected to grow to 1.04 yuan by 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 14.72 to 9.35 over the same period [3]. Industry and Company Investment Views - The report identifies three key directions for robotics: marginal changes in the main chain, product-to-customer transitions, and the development of core components [8]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies in the industrial control sector, such as 汇川技术 and 信捷电气, as well as those in the robotics sector like 柯力传感 (Keli Sensor) and 东华测试 (Donghua Testing) [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of oil refining equipment demand due to increased investments in fossil energy, particularly in emerging markets [8]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides macroeconomic data, including manufacturing PMI and fixed asset investment growth rates, which are crucial for understanding the industry's performance [27][28]. - The mechanical sector's performance is tracked against major indices, showing a 1.1% increase in the mechanical sector during the reporting week [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the new materials sector [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has shown resilience, outperforming the broader market and the basic chemicals sector, with a weekly change of 2.11% compared to 1.85% for the basic chemicals index [11]. - The report highlights a recovery in prices for certain materials, with SAF Europe FOB prices increasing by 6.51% and oxygen prices rising by 0.24% [20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in response to international trade tensions, particularly in the new materials sector [10]. Industry Updates - The easing of US-China trade tensions has led to a replenishment window in trade, resulting in increased inquiries and rising prices for oil and chemical products [9]. - The report notes that the ROE-PB for the chemical industry has reached new lows, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector [9]. - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors, particularly in new materials that are critical for self-sufficiency and innovation [9][10]. Market Performance - The report provides data on the performance of various materials, indicating that lithium iron phosphate prices have decreased by 3.81%, while SAF China FOB prices fell by 2.94% [20]. - The report lists the top-performing new materials stocks, including Lingpai Technology and Suli Co., which have seen significant weekly gains [25]. Regulatory Developments - The report discusses the investigation into DuPont China by the State Administration for Market Regulation, which may benefit domestic production efforts [12]. - New safety regulations for electric vehicle batteries will be enforced starting July 1, 2026, which may drive innovation in battery materials [13]. Sector Trends - The report identifies key areas for investment within the new materials sector, including high-tech materials that are currently dominated by foreign companies and are in urgent need of domestic alternatives [17][18]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the renewable energy materials sector, particularly in hydrogen and battery technologies [15][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [5][55]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in wind power project bidding and winning bids, with a total of 40.2GW of wind turbine bids from January to May, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [2][11]. - The winning bids for wind power from January to May reached 39.5GW, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [3][19]. - The report emphasizes three main investment lines in the wind power sector: high domestic offshore wind project reserves, robust land wind bidding in 2024, and regional growth in overseas installations [40]. Summary by Sections Bidding Volume - From January to May, wind turbine bidding totaled 40.2GW, with offshore and onshore bids at 3.6GW and 36.6GW respectively, marking increases of 5.5% and 15.5% year-on-year [11][19]. - In May, offshore and onshore bids were 0.5GW and 7.4GW respectively, with total wind power bidding at 7.9GW, showing a slight decrease compared to previous months [11][19]. Winning Bids - The total winning bids for wind power from January to May were 39.5GW, with offshore and onshore winning bids at 4.3GW and 35.2GW respectively, indicating increases of 48.5% and 5.4% year-on-year [19][20]. - In May, the winning bids were 1GW for offshore and 7.2GW for onshore, with a total of 8.1GW, reflecting a significant decrease compared to previous months [19][20]. Winning Bid Prices - The average winning bid prices in May were 2568 yuan/kW for offshore and 1558 yuan/kW for onshore, with slight month-on-month decreases of 1.4% and 0.6% respectively [35][39]. - The report notes that most major manufacturers had winning bid prices exceeding 1500 yuan/kW for onshore projects [39]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment lines: high offshore wind project reserves, increased land wind bidding in 2024, and growth in overseas installations [40]. - Recommended companies include Mingyang Smart Energy, Oriental Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and others [40].

证 券 研 究 报 告 传媒行业周观察（20250602-20250606） 可灵 AI 商业化提速，长线看好 IP 情绪消费 推荐（维持） 赛道 【市场观点】 行业研究 传媒 2025 年 06 月 08 日 邮箱：zhaohainan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070016 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 140 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 16,029.50 | 1.60 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 14,573.62 | 1.83 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 1.7% | -5.0% | 38.3% | | 相对表现 | -0.0% | -2.5% | 30.5% | -11% 9% 30% 50% 24/06 24/08 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/06 2024-06-11~2025-06-06 传媒 沪深300 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘欣 电话：010-63214660 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the energy sector, indicating a positive outlook despite geopolitical risks and supply concerns [1]. Core Insights - Oil prices have increased due to supply disruptions caused by wildfires in Canada, which have shut down approximately 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, representing about 7% of the country's oil output [11]. - The report highlights that geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Russia-Ukraine situation, continue to support oil prices [11]. - The Brent crude oil price reached $67.47 per barrel, up 4.35% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil price was $63.35 per barrel, up 3.53% week-on-week [11]. - The report suggests that the demand for oil is expected to improve as tariff negotiations progress, which may alleviate investor concerns about demand [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - **Crude Oil**: Global oil and gas capital expenditures have declined significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015, with a notable drop of nearly 122% from 2014 highs. This has led to cautious capital spending among major oil companies, limiting supply recovery in the short term [9][32]. - **Coal**: The report notes stable coal prices at ports, with the average price of Qinhuangdao port coal (Q5500) at 609.25 RMB per ton, down 0.29% week-on-week. The overall coal supply remains sufficient despite some production cuts [12][13]. - **Coke**: The report indicates that coke prices have remained stable, with a price of 1410 RMB per ton. However, demand from downstream steel mills is weak, leading to expectations of further price reductions [14][15]. - **Natural Gas**: The EU plans to ban Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027, which has faced opposition from France and Belgium. The average price of NYMEX natural gas increased by 9.5% to $3.72 per million British thermal units [16][17]. - **Oil Services**: The oil service sector is expected to see a recovery in activity due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive policies [18][19]. 2. Major Energy Price Changes - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index is reported at 76.13, down 2.11% week-on-week and down 24.46% year-on-year. The industry price percentile is at 20.34%, indicating a significant decline [20][22]. - The report summarizes that the largest price increases were seen in U.S. natural gas (+9.5%) and Brent crude oil (+4.3%), while the largest declines were in port coke (-3.4%) and Shanxi coke (-2.9%) [28][30].

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20250602-20250608） 推荐（维持） 稳定币：香港特区 vs 美国立法进程一览 美国关于稳定币的立法仍在推进中，预计需协调统一两项重要法案后才能成 为法律。2025 年 4 月 3 日美国众议院通过《稳定币透明与问责促进账本经济 法案》（简称 STABLE Act），首次以联邦立法形式规范"支付稳定币"的发行、 储备和监管。2025 年 5 月 20 日参议院通过《指导和建立美国稳定币创新的法 案》（简称 GENIUS Act），但仍需众议院审议和总统签署。GENIUS Act 通过建 立联邦和州分级监管框架，规范支付稳定币。在侧重点上：①STABLE Act 提 出采用"联邦-州"双轨监管，州监管机构需证明其规则与联邦"实质相似"， 同时更强调消费者保护，通过明确赎回权保障消费者权益；②GENIUS Act 则 更注重提升美元国际地位，强制稳定币与美元或美债挂钩，增强全球美元需求。 预计两项法案最终可能合并或协调，形成统一的稳定币监管框架。目前，它们 的核心差异仍需国会进一步协商。2025 年 6 月 5 日 Circle（股票代码：CRCL） 正式在纽约 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommendation," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [49]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of the U.S. government's executive order aimed at enhancing the leadership position of American drone systems and accelerating the eVTOL pilot programs [5][9]. - It highlights the potential for significant growth in the low-altitude economy, particularly in three application scenarios: new consumption in cultural tourism, manned (passenger) transport, and specialized uses [35][34]. - The report identifies key players in the industry, including manufacturers and supply chain participants, and suggests focusing on segments with high growth potential from 2025 to 2027 [36][34]. Industry Overview - The report notes that as of June 6, 2025, the total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 334.09 billion yuan, with 122 listed companies [2]. - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 3.8%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which has decreased by 1.6% [26][27]. U.S. Government Initiatives - The executive order signed by President Trump on June 6, 2025, aims to expand the operational scope of drones and accelerate the development and testing of drone technologies, including advanced air mobility [5][6]. - The establishment of eVTOL pilot programs is a key focus, with plans to select at least five pilot projects for applications in cargo transport and medical rescue [10][9]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that companies like Archer and Joby, despite not yet achieving type certification or mass production, have market valuations exceeding 40 billion yuan, reflecting strong market confidence in the future potential of eVTOL for air transportation [13][12]. - It suggests that both Chinese and American companies are well-positioned to dominate the global market for eVTOL, with China leading in technological advancements [13][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key segments within the low-altitude economy, including main manufacturers, supply chain participants, and new infrastructure developments [36][34]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Wan Feng Ao Wei (for general aviation and eVTOL), Green Energy Huichong (for drones), and various supply chain firms like Zongshen Power and Yingboer [36][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the technology sector in A-shares, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [35]. Core Views - The delivery of Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 (TH6) chip marks a significant breakthrough in AI infrastructure, addressing network bottlenecks and enhancing GPU utilization from 40% to over 90%, which is crucial for training large AI models [17][18]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the communication sector, which has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.40 percentage points this week, with a 5.27% increase [9][11]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the domestic communication industry, particularly in light of the advancements in AI infrastructure and the increasing focus on high-performance technology [27][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The communication industry consists of 124 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 48,971.71 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 21,813.38 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the communication sector over the past month is 7.2%, 6 months is 2.2%, and 12 months is 30.5% [3]. Market Review - The communication sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 0.94%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which has decreased by 1.55% [9]. - The top five gainers in the communication sector this week include Huamai Technology (+33.74%), ST Zhongjia (+33.33%), and Taicheng Light (+30.31%) [14]. Broadcom's TH6 Chip Delivery - The TH6 chip has a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, doubling the current market standard and increasing throughput by six times compared to its predecessor [17]. - The chip's architecture allows for high-density, low-loss connections, significantly reducing latency and power consumption [18][19]. Broadcom's Q2 FY25 Financial Analysis - Broadcom reported a revenue of 15 billion USD for Q2 FY25, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by AI business growth [23]. - The semiconductor business generated 8.4 billion USD, with AI business revenue reaching 4.4 billion USD, indicating a strong growth outlook for the second half of the year [24]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators; New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang for optical modules; and Haige Communication for military and satellite communications [29].