风险收敛下的资产重估 1 01 内部风险收敛 02 基本面：增长动能与通胀边际特征 03 政策面：财政与货币政策特征 04 资产分析与展望 经济与资产主要脉络 地方政府债务 10万亿存量债务置换，显著缓解地方风险。 内部 宏观 风险 趋于 收敛 汇率：相对稳定； 股票：优先配置资产； 债券：利率适度回升 后趋稳。 房地产 特朗普关税2.0 降低利率，供需两端持续发力。销售边际企稳，风险 逐步下降。 "对等关税"、对商品分类 征税、中美贸易协议谈判。 对中国税率边际 上行可能有限。 外部 宏观 风险 可控 风险溢价 ↓ 2025年，宏观政策将在内需，特别消费端加力。 核心通胀(CPI)有 望企稳。 通胀预期改善， 盈利状况改观。 资产配置 （动态评估） 资料来源：中国人民银行、华西证券研究所 2 不同周期的组合 3 长周期（人口、国际形势）： 40-50年 中周期（房地产）：8-10年 短周期（库存）：3-4年 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所 单位：点（指数化） 注：纵轴指标根据工业产成品库存同比增速、房地产销售面积、人口老龄化水平等指 标调整和指数化得到。 01 内部风险收敛 大类资产团队 证券分析师：孙 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3366.16, down by 6.38 points or -0.19%[1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3928.80, down by 15.21 points or -0.39%[1] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.81 points or 0.19% to 436.66[1] - The 7-10 Year National Development Bonds Index decreased by 0.43 points or -0.16% to 262.18[1] - The 3-5 Year Implied AA+ Credit Index fell by 0.13 points or -0.07% to 186.11[1] Market Trends - On March 10, the stock market continued to cool down, with most indices in narrow fluctuations; the bond market saw a general rise in yields across various maturities[2] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields increased by 2.0 basis points and 2.8 basis points, reaching 1.81% and 2.00% respectively[2] - The market sentiment is described as extremely fragile, with concerns about potential forced liquidations by other institutions exacerbating the adjustment[4] Fund Dynamics - The demand for funds to reduce duration has been a significant driver of market fluctuations, with the duration of top-performing medium and long-term bond funds decreasing from 6.2 years to 4.9 years recently[4] - Despite the bond market's poor performance on March 7 and 10, the redemption index showed a significant difference compared to previous pressures, indicating a potential stabilization[3] Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the market is at the tail end of an adjustment phase, with several signals indicating potential stabilization, including the possibility of the central bank's market interventions[5] - The overall market remains in a strong trend, although short-term pressures may lead to some profit-taking, particularly in the context of ongoing uncertainties in overseas markets[6]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 10 日 [Table_Title] CPI 转负，等待降准 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 2 月 CPI 同比-0.7%，低于预期的-0.4%，前月 0.5%；CPI 环比-0.2%，前月 0.7%。剔除食品和能源的核心 CPI 环比为-0.2%，前月为 0.5%。PPI 同比-2.2%，低于预期的-2.1%，前月-2.3%；PPI 环比-0.1%，前月-0.2% （市场预期来自 Wind）。CPI 环比转负， PPI 环比降幅收窄，如何看待 2 月通胀数据？ 第一，春节错位扰动 CPI 同比，1-2 月 CPI 环比合并来看也较弱。2 月 CPI 同比-0.7%，较 1 月的 0.5%大 幅下滑，时隔 13 个月再度转负。统计局称扣除春节错月影响，2 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.1%，持平去年 12 月。合并 1-2 月，CPI 环比合计上涨 0.5%，低于往年同期。2021-2024 同期的平均值为 1.1%，2015-2019 同期则为 1.5%。相比之下，仅略好于 2023 年同期的 0.3% ...

Performance Overview - The volume-price industry rotation strategy achieved a cumulative return of 702.79% from 2010 to February 2025, outperforming the equal-weighted industry portfolio by 608.91%[5] - The annualized return of the volume-price industry rotation strategy is 14.72%, compared to 4.46% for the equal-weighted industry portfolio, resulting in an excess return of 10.25%[6] Factor Construction - The minute-level volume-price correlation factor has a Rank_IC of 4.66%, with an annualized return of 28.62% and an information ratio of 87.22%[11] - The amplitude volume-price divergence factor shows a Rank_IC of 4.10%, with an annualized return of 19.66% and an information ratio of 58.44%[23] - The transaction amount volatility factor has a Rank_IC of 5.61%, yielding an annualized return of 32.37% and an information ratio of 104.59%[35] - The transaction volume volatility factor presents a Rank_IC of 5.46%, with an annualized return of 30.71% and an information ratio of 99.82%[49] Composite Factor Performance - The composite fine-grained volume-price factor has a Rank_IC of 5.40%, with an annualized return of 31.70% and an information ratio of 105%[62] - The fine-grained volume-price selection strategy in the CSI 300 index yielded a cumulative return of 210.57% from 2015 to February 2025, with an annualized excess return of 10.84%[66] - The fine-grained volume-price selection strategy in the CSI 500 index achieved a cumulative return of 322.64% over the same period, with an annualized excess return of 14.28%[71]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 6 日 [Table_Title] Solid Power 2024 年收入为 2010 万美元，净亏损 为 9650 万美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2024 年财务业绩情况 Solid Power 在 2024 年实现了 2010 万美元的收入，比 2023 年增加了 270 万美元。这一增长主要得益于公司在 SK On 协议中的表现，公司在技术转让的关键步骤和与公司的线 路安装协议相关的重要里程碑上执行有力。 2024 年的运营费用为 1.255 亿美元，而 2023 年为 1.08 亿美元，这主要是由于为提高电解质和电池设计性能、电解质 生产、为支持 SK On 协议而购买的设备以及扩大运营（包括 建立韩国业务）而增加的研发成本。 2024 年经营亏损为 1.053 亿美元，净亏损为 9650 万美 元，即每股 0.54 美元。 截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，合同应收款为 140 万美 元，递延收入为 320 万美元，流动负债总额为 2000 ...

Group 1: Market Context and Trends - The current environment of low interest rates and warming equity market sentiment creates fertile ground for the resurgence of fixed income plus (固收+) products[1] - The prohibition of manual interest supplementation and the self-discipline mechanism for deposits provide development space for broad fixed income asset management products[7] - The scarcity of high-yield assets and the mismatch between high-cost liabilities and low-return assets further exacerbate the asset shortage, necessitating the search for new sources of income[11] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Product Composition - Fixed income plus products should focus on capturing sector beta rather than individual stock alpha, as the latter may not effectively control volatility in this context[21] - Stock ETFs have emerged as ideal beta tools for fixed income plus products due to their ample capacity, low fees, and good liquidity[36] - The combination of pure bonds and stock ETFs may represent a new development direction for fixed income plus products, as traditional equity and convertible bonds are standard components[50] Group 3: Performance and Risk Management - As of Q4 2024, the stock and convertible bond allocation in secondary bond funds reached 27.4%, while mixed bond funds reached 29.1%, indicating a systematic increase in equity asset allocation[21] - The performance of 中欧磐固 A fund, which has a significant allocation to stock ETFs, demonstrated better performance and higher stability compared to secondary bond funds in 2024[56] - The strategy of using a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology stocks while incorporating broad-based investments, has proven effective in enhancing the risk-return profile of fixed income plus products[62]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and profit in 2024, with operating income reaching 2.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.23%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 196 million yuan, up 61.44% [1][12]. - The company has maintained six consecutive years of revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 30.49% since 2019, indicating a strong recovery from the industry downturn in 2022 [1][12]. - The company's refined management practices have led to significant improvements in operational efficiency, with accounts receivable turnover days and inventory turnover days significantly lower than industry averages [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Sustained Precision and Industry Leadership - The company has effectively captured market demand, maintaining high capacity utilization and sales rates, particularly in high-end products such as high-efficiency lighting and automotive lighting [1][14]. - The gross margin of the main business has increased to 24.99%, reflecting a 6.78% year-on-year growth, showcasing the impact of refined management on profitability [2][22]. 2. Strong Growth in MLED Market - The company is transitioning to a full-color LED chip supplier, with the completion of a project to produce 2.4 million red and yellow light epitaxial wafers and chips, enhancing its product offerings [3][24]. - The Mini LED market is expected to see significant growth, with the company's revenue from Mini LED products projected to increase by 390.40% year-on-year in 2024, benefiting from a surge in domestic Mini LED TV sales [3][25][28]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report has revised revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 3.368 billion yuan and 3.975 billion yuan, respectively, and expects revenue to reach 4.651 billion yuan in 2027 [7][32]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 0.40 yuan and 0.52 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a projected EPS of 0.68 yuan for 2027 [7][32].

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 05 日 [Table_Title] 对美农产品加征关税，关注进口替代机会 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 据国务院关税税则委员会，2025 年 3 月 3 日，美国政府宣布以芬太尼为由对所有中国输美商品进一步加征 10% 关税。经国务院批准，自 2025 年 3 月 10 日起，对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税，其中对鸡肉、小麦、 玉米、棉花加征 15%关税，对高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品加征 10%关税。 分析与判断: ► 加征关税产品涉及粮食、食品与棉花，其中大豆、高粱对外依存度高 美国作为世界农产品生产大国，是中国重要的贸易伙伴。2024 年，上述部分加征关税农产品自美国进口情况如 下：鸡肉（进口量 11.28 万吨，占总进口量比例 11.62%）、小麦（190.23 万吨，17.02%）、玉米（207.25 万 吨，15.20%）、棉花（87.57 万吨，33.44%）、大豆（2213.42 万吨，21.07%）、猪肉（38.32 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The lithium carbonate inventory has increased, and domestic lithium prices have decreased, indicating a potential for continued price fluctuations in the future [15][40] - The nickel market is experiencing upward price trends due to increased mining quotas in Indonesia, although demand remains weak [3][6] - Cobalt prices have surged due to supply tightening expectations following the Democratic Republic of Congo's announcement to suspend cobalt exports for four months [7] - The rare earth market is showing signs of supply constraints, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides rising [9][16] - Tin prices have decreased, but the resumption of mining in Wa State, Myanmar, is a key factor to monitor [10][16] - Antimony prices have increased due to tight raw material supplies, with a strong bullish sentiment among traders [11][17] - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting the market [14][17] Summary by Sections Lithium Industry Update - Domestic lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with industrial-grade prices averaging 73,000 CNY/ton, down 2.01% from the previous week [40] - Inventory levels have increased, with total lithium carbonate inventory reaching 115,500 tons [40] - Supply is expected to grow rapidly in March, but demand may not keep pace, leading to potential oversupply [40] Nickel Industry Update - LME nickel prices increased to 15,460 USD/ton, up 1.05% from the previous week [3] - Indonesia's nickel mining quota for 2025 has been raised to 29.85 million wet tons, which may lead to increased global nickel supply [6] Cobalt Industry Update - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, with electrolytic cobalt reaching 185,000 CNY/ton, up 13.15% [7] - Supply remains tight, and demand from the new energy sector is still present, although overall demand is sluggish [7] Rare Earth Industry Update - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased, with supply constraints expected to persist [9][16] - The market sentiment is positive, with expectations of stable demand from sectors like new energy and robotics [9][16] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices have decreased, with LME tin settling at 31,350 USD/ton, down 6.28% [10] - The resumption of mining in Myanmar is uncertain, and the market is closely monitoring this situation [10][16] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony prices have increased due to tight raw material supplies, with 2 low bismuth antimony ingots priced at 155,000-157,000 CNY/ton [11][17] - The market is experiencing a bullish sentiment, with traders reluctant to sell [11][17] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are at a near 15-year high, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][17] - The market outlook remains optimistic due to structural shortages in supply [14][17]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is neutral [5] Core Insights - Excellent Education's 2024 earnings forecast exceeds expectations, with projected revenue of 1.05-1.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 114.5%-135.0%, and net profit of 180-200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.3%-122.5% [1][11] - The company plans to gradually increase its dividend payout ratio to 50%, 60%, and 70% over the next three fiscal years, with a corresponding dividend yield of 3-3.3% for 2024 [1][11] - The introduction of the AI model DeepSeek shows advantages such as enhanced reasoning capabilities, lower costs, and the ability to operate offline, potentially replacing experienced teachers [1][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - DeepSeek's applications in education focus on reducing labor costs and providing personalized solutions for diverse student needs [2][12] - Recommended beneficiaries from AI in education include both 2C training institutions and 2B equipment companies, with specific companies highlighted for investment [2][12] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China Oriental Education for vocational education, and several K12 training and higher education companies such as Xueda Education, Kede Education, and Tianli International Holdings [3][13] - The report emphasizes the potential for profit margin improvement in K12 education due to policy stabilization and continued growth in summer enrollment [3][13] Market Review - The report notes that CITIC Education's stock fell by 10.45%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.72%, indicating a significant underperformance relative to the market [4][20] - Year-to-date, the CITIC Education Index has risen by 6.83%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.04% [4][20] Company Developments - Various companies are integrating AI technologies, such as DeepSeek, into their educational products, enhancing learning experiences and operational efficiencies [15][17][19] - Notable developments include the launch of AI-powered educational systems by companies like Kede Education and the introduction of specialized learning products by Hightut Group [43][44]