商贸零售 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《功效护肤品牌 HBN 母公司护家科 技递表港交所—行业周报》-2026.2.1 《老铺黄金 SKP 活动开启，关注春节 销售超预期催化 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.1.25 《2025 年社零同比+3.7%，海南封关 首 月 表 现 亮 眼 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.19 行业关键词：霸王茶姬、琳朝珠宝、阿嬷手作、壹网壹创、千问等 【霸王茶姬】霸王茶姬开设首家泰国旗舰店。 【琳朝珠宝】琳朝珠宝全国第二家门店落子南京德基广场。 【阿嬷手作】阿嬷手作跨界试水餐饮，推出高端广西风味螺蛳粉。 【壹网壹创】壹网壹创拟并购 AI 营销公司。 【千问】千问 APP 上线 AI 请奶茶活动引爆流量。 板块行情回顾 本周（2 月 2 日-2 月 6 日），商贸零售和社会服务指数分别报收 2426.99 点/9285.47 点，分别下跌 0.34%/上涨 ...

传媒/游戏Ⅱ 完美世界（002624.SZ） 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2026/2/6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 19.57 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 20.35/10.20 | | 总市值(亿元) | 379.65 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 357.69 | | 总股本(亿股) | 19.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 18.28 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 146.03 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 完美世界 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中报业绩大增，看好新游上线及影 视修复驱动成长 —公司信息更新报 告》-2025.8.27 《预计 2025H1 同比大幅扭亏，关注 《异环》上线进展—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.7.17 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 《异环》三测反响热烈，上线或驱动业绩大幅增长，维持"买入"评级 《异环》是公司基 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "Risk Preference-Concentration-Turnover" Three-Dimensional Label Classification System - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to classify multi-asset fund advisory products based on three dimensions: risk preference, concentration, and turnover rate, to better understand their risk-return characteristics and performance differentiation[3][32] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Risk Preference**: Classified based on the proportion of income-generating assets and growth assets in the portfolio. If income-generating assets exceed 70%, it is classified as debt-oriented; if growth assets exceed 70%, it is equity-oriented; otherwise, it is balanced[34] - **Concentration**: Measured using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), calculated as $ \sum_{i} w_{i}^{2} $, where $w_{i}$ represents the weight of each asset class. Thresholds are set as follows: HHI > 0.5 is high concentration, HHI < 0.25 is low concentration, and values in between are medium concentration[34] - **Turnover Rate**: Measures the timing adjustment ability of multi-asset fund advisory products at the asset class level. Annualized one-sided turnover rate is used, with thresholds defined as follows: turnover rate > 2 is high turnover, < 1 is low turnover, and values in between are medium turnover[34] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the heterogeneity in multi-asset fund advisory products and provides insights into their risk-return characteristics and strategic differences[3][34] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. "Risk Preference-Concentration-Turnover" Three-Dimensional Label Classification System - **Risk Preference**: - Equity-oriented products: 2025 annualized return 18.5%, 2024 annualized return 10.5%, 2023 annualized return -1.0%[37][39] - Debt-oriented products: 2025 annualized return 7.4%, 2024 annualized return 5.9%, 2023 annualized return 3.9%[37][39] - Balanced products: 2025 annualized return 15.7%, 2024 annualized return 8.8%, 2023 annualized return -4.7%[37][39] - **Concentration**: - Low concentration (HHI < 0.25): 2025 annualized return 17.7%, 2024 annualized return 8.2%, 2023 annualized return 0.4%[37][39] - Medium concentration (0.25 ≤ HHI ≤ 0.5): 2025 annualized return 13.0%, 2024 annualized return 6.9%, 2023 annualized return -4.0%[37][39] - High concentration (HHI > 0.5): 2025 annualized return 7.8%, 2024 annualized return 6.9%, 2023 annualized return 3.9%[37][39] - **Turnover Rate**: - Low turnover (< 1): 2025 annualized return 15.6%, 2024 annualized return 8.8%, 2023 annualized return 1.7%[37][39] - Medium turnover (1 ≤ turnover ≤ 2): 2025 annualized return 10.6%, 2024 annualized return 7.3%, 2023 annualized return 0.5%[37][39] - High turnover (> 2): 2025 annualized return 11.2%, 2024 annualized return 7.6%, 2023 annualized return -5.4%[37][39] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Brinson Attribution Model - **Factor Construction Idea**: The model decomposes the excess return of multi-asset fund advisory products into two components: allocation return and selection return, to evaluate the sources of excess returns[42][46] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Allocation Effect**: Measures the timing and allocation ability of fund managers across major asset classes. The formula is: $$ R_{allocation} = \sum_{i} (w_{i}^{actual} - w_{i}^{benchmark}) \times r_{i}^{asset} $$ where $w_{i}^{actual}$ is the actual weight of asset $i$, $w_{i}^{benchmark}$ is the benchmark weight, and $r_{i}^{asset}$ is the return of asset $i$[42][46] - **Selection Effect**: Reflects the ability to select superior funds within each asset class. The formula is: $$ R_{selection} = R_{excess} - R_{allocation} $$ where $R_{excess}$ is the total excess return relative to the benchmark[42][46] - **Factor Evaluation**: The model provides a clear decomposition of excess returns, helping to identify whether returns are driven by strategic asset allocation or fund selection[42][46] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Brinson Attribution Model - **Equity-Oriented Products**: - Example: "Guotai Global Allocation" achieved 2025 allocation return of 10.5% and selection return of 6.3%[48][49] - Example: "招商海外掘金" achieved 2025 allocation return of -0.8% and selection return of 14.5%[48][49] - **Debt-Oriented Products**: - Example: "嘉实百灵全天候策略" achieved 2025 allocation return of 3.8% and selection return of 0.5%[56][58] - Example: "全球固收+" achieved 2025 allocation return of 2.6% and selection return of 1.3%[56][58] - **Balanced Products**: - Example: "时光旅行者" achieved 2025 allocation return of 15.6% and selection return of -10.3%[65][66] - Example: "绘盈长投计划" achieved 2023 allocation return of 10.1%, providing a strong safety net during a bear market[65][66]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to significantly improve its performance in 2025, with a projected net profit of 7.2-7.6 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4] - The upcoming game "异环" (Yihuan) has received positive feedback during its third test phase, with over 20 million official reservations and a high rating of 8.9 on TapTap, indicating strong market interest [3] - The company anticipates that the launch of "异环" will drive substantial revenue growth, potentially exceeding the performance of its previous title "幻塔" (Huan Ta) [3] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 379.65 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 357.69 billion yuan [1] - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 6.836 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.7% [5] - The projected net profit for 2026 is 2.818 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the net profit margin to 28.0% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.38 yuan in 2025 to 1.45 yuan in 2026 [5] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 66.0% in 2026, up from 59.1% in 2025 [5][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes agricultural modernization with quantifiable goals and actionable measures, focusing on quality, efficiency, and ecological sustainability [3][13] - The pig price is under pressure post-festival due to supply release and demand weakening, with the average price of pigs at 12.06 CNY/kg as of February 6, 2026, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.18 CNY/kg [4][37] - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.65 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 1.92% during the week of February 2-6, 2026 [6][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The agricultural sector index decreased by 1.92%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, indicating a relative underperformance of the agricultural sector [6][26] - Key stocks such as Zhongxing Junye (+12.07%), Boen Group (+5.60%), and Shengnong Development (+4.88%) led the gains in the sector [6][32] Price Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, the average price of pigs was 12.14 CNY/kg, down 1.30% from the previous week, while the average price of piglets increased by 2.00% to 25.54 CNY/kg [37] - The average price of beef was 66.09 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.09% [47] - Prices for other agricultural products such as grass carp and shrimp saw increases of 1.27% and 2.94%, respectively [49][35] Key News - The Central Government has reinforced comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and promoted dairy consumption through various measures [5][33] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has issued implementation opinions to ensure food security and promote agricultural modernization [34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by multiple factors including policy support, trading dynamics, fundamental improvements, and external catalysts, indicating clear investment value [3][9] - The food and beverage index increased by 4.3% from February 2 to February 6, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 5.6 percentage points, with sub-sectors like liquor, soft drinks, and beer leading the performance [9][11] - The liquor industry is entering a new development cycle, with Guizhou Moutai's market-oriented reforms marking a significant phase, and the pricing system gradually returning to a supply-demand driven model [10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 4.3%, ranking first among 28 sectors, with liquor (+5.3%), soft drinks (+4.7%), and beer (+4.5%) showing relative strength [11][12] - Individual stocks such as Huangtai Liquor, Hai Xin Food, and Ri Chen Co. saw significant gains, while *ST Yedao, *ST Chuntian, and Li Ziyuan experienced declines [11][14] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with the price of whole milk powder at $3,614 per ton, down 13.3% year-on-year, and fresh milk prices at 3.04 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% year-on-year [15][31] - The price of pork is down 20.1% year-on-year, with live pig prices at 12.2 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a broader trend of price adjustments in the sector [21][24] Liquor Industry News - Some distributors of Moutai have sold out their first batch of flying Moutai quotas for March, indicating strong demand during the Spring Festival [36] - The Qingdao Beer production base has commenced operations, aiming to produce high-end products and achieve an annual output value of approximately 1 billion yuan [36] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading liquor stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as elastic stocks like Shede Liquor and benefiting stocks like Jiu Gui Liquor [10] - In the consumer goods sector, three main lines are suggested: the snack sector, dairy products, and the restaurant supply chain, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [10][43]

Group 1 - Amazon's high CAPEX indicates strong demand for facilities, benefiting optical communication targets [2][12][22] - In 2024 and 2025, Amazon's cash capital expenditures are projected to reach $77.7 billion and $128.3 billion, primarily for technology facilities and fulfillment network construction [2][12] - The optical communication industry is expected to grow steadily, with China's market size projected to reach 147.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.18% from 2021 to 2024 [14][15] Group 2 - The report identifies five optical communication-related companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange and three on the New Third Board, with a total market capitalization of 55.213 billion yuan as of February 6, 2026 [23][24] - Key companies include: - Hengtong Optic-Electric (920045.BJ) focuses on passive optical components, with a market cap of 24.302 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 123.75% [24][25] - Wanyuantong (920060.BJ) specializes in optical module PCBs, achieving a revenue growth of 15.39% [26][28] - Yunling Optoelectronics (874775.NQ) has seen a revenue increase of 78.17% and a net profit growth of 329.30% [29][34] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical and biological industry on the Beijing Stock Exchange showed an average weekly change of +0.14%, while other sectors like high-end equipment and information technology experienced declines [3][35] - The average P/E ratio for the pharmaceutical and biological sector rose to 29.7X, indicating a positive trend in this industry [48] Group 4 - The technology new industry saw a median P/E ratio decrease from 41.5X to 40.6X, with a total market value decline from 531.795 billion yuan to 527.389 billion yuan [4][57][58] - The report highlights that 27 out of 159 companies in the technology new industry experienced stock price increases, with an average decline of -2.18% for the sector [52][54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.058 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 237 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [2][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 2.02 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.6, 16.3, and 14.9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong growth outlook driven by the company's generic drug performance and the potential of innovative drug DYX116 [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Expansion and Sales Growth - The company has focused on market expansion, with steady sales growth in products such as "复瑞彤" and "波开清". The sales of other products like 卡格列净片 and 恩格列净片 have also seen rapid growth, contributing positively to revenue [3] - The company has won bids for several products in the tenth batch of centralized procurement, which will enhance sales starting from March 2025 [3] Research and Development - In 2025, the company plans to invest 120.27 million yuan in R&D, a 2.83% increase year-on-year. It has obtained registration approvals for 8 drug varieties and is advancing the clinical trials for innovative drug DYX116 [4] - The company continues to implement a "generic-innovation combination" strategy in its R&D efforts, with multiple projects progressing as planned [4] Financial Performance and Projections - The financial projections indicate a revenue increase to 1.19 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.36 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to reach 256 million yuan and 281 million yuan respectively [6][9] - Key financial metrics include a gross margin of 85.0% and a net margin of 22.4% for 2025, showcasing strong profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changhong Energy is maintained at "Outperform" [1][3] Core Views - Changhong Energy is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.485 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.17%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 249 million yuan, up 26.06% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its production capacity in lithium batteries, with utilization rates for the 21700 and 18650 production lines reaching 80% and 50% respectively [4] - The company is also diversifying into new fields such as semi-solid batteries, humanoid robots, and drones, with some clients already in the sample delivery stage [5] Financial Summary - For 2025, the expected revenue is 4.482 billion yuan, with a net profit of 249 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.37 yuan [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23.7, 18.8, and 15.4 respectively [3][7] - The gross margin is expected to be 16.3% in 2025, with a net margin of 5.5% [10]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the bull market is still ongoing, encouraging confidence while suggesting a reduction in the slope expectation of the market, indicating that the lower limit of the market is continuously rising [2][12] - The report highlights that over 20% of companies in six industries, including utilities, non-ferrous metals, and automotive, are expected to see strong profit growth, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [3][21] - The report identifies three categories of companies to focus on: those with accelerating profit growth, those experiencing a turnaround from negative to positive profits, and those with profit growth transitioning from negative to positive [4][26] Group 2 - The report outlines a "net profit gap" strategy that has significantly outperformed the market since 2025, with two portfolios achieving returns over 100%, particularly in the coal and non-ferrous metals sectors [5][29] - The top five industries with the highest proportion of stocks showing net profit gaps include coal (8.1%), non-ferrous metals (5.1%), and communications (4.8%), indicating strong performance potential in these areas [5][32] - The report suggests that the A-share market is currently in a relatively safe environment, with room for expansion in the securities ratio, particularly in the TMT sector, which is expected to maintain its profitability advantage [6][34] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on industries that are benefiting from PPI improvements and broad anti-involution trends, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and power generation [6][35] - It also suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, highlighting opportunities in AI applications, military industry, and core AI hardware [6][35] - The report indicates that the overall annual profit forecast for A-share companies shows a continuous improvement, with 52.3% of companies expected to report profit growth [17][18]