Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The environmental and public utility sectors experienced declines, with the environmental index down 6.02% and the public utility index down 4.33%, indicating a larger drop compared to the overall market [6][23] - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% in October, marking a new high for the year [10][21] - The coal industry is facing a reduction in production, with national raw coal output declining by 3.8%, 3.2%, and 1.8% in July, August, and September respectively [6] - The report suggests investment opportunities in the electricity sector, particularly recommending companies like Guodian Power and Anhui Energy, which are expected to see valuation recovery [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Analysis - In October, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with significant growth in the first and third industries [10][21] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released allocation plans for carbon emissions trading for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries for 2024 and 2025, indicating a move towards free allocation based on carbon emissions [21][22] Market Review - The environmental and public utility sectors saw significant declines, with the environmental sector up 15.11% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index [6][23] - The electricity sector's year-to-date growth is only 1.77%, lagging behind the CSI 300 and the ChiNext index [6][23] Key Data Tracking - As of November 21, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 820 CNY/ton, stable compared to the previous week but down 2.4% year-on-year [40] - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level is at 174.4 meters, up 4.2% year-on-year, with inflow and outflow rates also increasing [42] - The average electricity price in Guangdong reached 253.72 CNY/MWh, a 7.7% increase from the previous week [53] Industry Events - The report notes several key regulatory developments, including initiatives to promote green manufacturing in Jiangxi Province and the establishment of zero-carbon parks in Liaoning Province [64][65]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Interest Rates - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to capture the trend patterns of interest rates, depicting the support and resistance lines of interest rate data. It provides multi-cycle composite timing views based on the pattern breakthrough situations of interest rate trends under different investment cycles[10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Source**: Yield to Maturity (YTM) data of 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds. - **Cycles**: Long cycle (monthly), medium cycle (bi-weekly), and short cycle (weekly). - **Signal Calculation**: - For the 5-year bond YTM: Long cycle upward breakthrough, medium cycle upward breakthrough, short cycle no signal. Final signal: bearish[10]. - For the 10-year bond YTM: Long cycle downward breakthrough, medium cycle upward breakthrough, short cycle no signal. Final signal: neutral to bearish[13]. - For the 30-year bond YTM: Long cycle no signal, medium cycle upward breakthrough, short cycle upward breakthrough. Final signal: bearish[16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the trend patterns of interest rates and provides clear timing signals based on multi-cycle analysis[10][13][16]. Model Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Interest Rates - **5-Year Bond YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 5.5% - Maximum drawdown: 2.88% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.91 - Short-term annualized return (since end of 2024): 2.24% - Maximum drawdown: 0.59% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.8 - Long-term excess return: 1.07% - Short-term excess return: 0.81% - Probability of positive annual absolute return: 100% - Probability of positive annual excess return: 100%[25] - **10-Year Bond YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 6.08% - Maximum drawdown: 2.74% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.22 - Short-term annualized return (since end of 2024): 2.69% - Maximum drawdown: 0.58% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 4.65 - Long-term excess return: 1.65% - Short-term excess return: 1.39% - Probability of positive annual absolute return: 100% - Probability of positive annual excess return: 100%[28] - **30-Year Bond YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 7.36% - Maximum drawdown: 4.27% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.72 - Short-term annualized return (since end of 2024): 3.25% - Maximum drawdown: 0.92% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.54 - Long-term excess return: 2.41% - Short-term excess return: 2.57% - Probability of positive annual absolute return: 94.44% - Probability of positive annual excess return: 94.44%[33]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 10 月推盘未售去化周期较 9 月上升 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 20 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 20 日） | 新房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 月 | 20 日） | 二手房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 月 | 20 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 10 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 10 月 | | 样本城市 | | | | 样本城市 | -12% | -收窄 | +10 PCT | | 城） （39 | -33% | -扩大 | -6 PCT | 城） （16 | | | | | 一线城市 | -40% | -扩大 | -4 PCT | 一线城市 | -20% | -收窄 | +7 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - Google has released the Gemini 3 large model, which includes the Gemini 3 Pro preview and Gemini 3 Deep Think mode, showcasing significant advancements in AI capabilities [6][9]. - The Google Antigravity platform has been launched, transforming AI assistance into an active partner for developers, enhancing task execution and code verification [12][15]. - The Nano Banana Pro model has been introduced, featuring high-resolution output and advanced image generation capabilities, integrating multimodal understanding and Google's knowledge base [18][16]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 286 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 4,122.9 billion and a circulating market value of about 3,648.6 billion [3]. - The computer sector experienced a decline of 2.74% in the third week of November 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Rongji Software and *ST Dongtong [19][20]. Market Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is recorded at 0.4%, 16.2%, and 16.7% respectively, while relative performance stands at 3.7%, 2.5%, and 5.1% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - AI has emerged as a new growth engine for performance, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud providers driving revenue growth in related cloud businesses [1][6]. - The report highlights that the demand for AI computing power remains robust, with companies like NVIDIA reporting record revenues and strong future guidance [6][42]. - SaaS companies are experiencing substantial revenue growth, largely attributed to the application of AI technologies [54]. Summary by Sections Cloud: Continued Increase in Capital Expenditures - Major cloud providers collectively invested over $110 billion in capital expenditures in Q3 CY25, with AI being a key driver for this increase [6][13]. - Amazon's capital expenditure surged by 55% to $35.1 billion, surpassing Microsoft as the largest spender in a single quarter [6][18]. - Future guidance indicates that cloud providers will continue to increase capital expenditures focused on AI and data center infrastructure [6][18]. Computing Power: Performance Orders Exceeding Expectations - NVIDIA reported a 62% increase in revenue for Q3 FY26, with data center revenue reaching $51.2 billion, a 66% year-over-year growth [42][45]. - AMD also achieved record revenues of $9.2 billion in Q3, driven by strong demand for its EPYC and Ryzen processors [50][51]. Applications: Overview of SaaS Company Performance - SaaS companies reported significant revenue growth in Q3 CY25, with many exceeding expectations due to AI technology applications [54][55]. - ServiceNow's subscription revenue grew by 21.5%, while Palantir's revenue increased by 63%, driven by demand for its AIP platform [57][58]. - AppLovin's revenue rose by 68%, supported by its AI-driven advertising technology [60].

Domestic Economic Outlook - The annual economic growth target is largely achieved, but Q4 growth may further slow down, with high-frequency data indicating a significant decline in asphalt and cement production rates compared to the same period last year[6][17]. - October fiscal data suggests adjustments in year-end fiscal rhythm, allowing for a lower completion rate of the annual budget, with a notable decrease in expenditure despite a good revenue month[6][20]. Overseas Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve may skip interest rate cuts in December, which could lead to continued pressure on U.S. stocks and have a spillover effect on the domestic market[6][18]. - The October FOMC minutes reveal serious divisions regarding potential rate cuts, with concerns that further cuts could exacerbate inflation risks[6][18]. - The Epstein case is gaining attention, with potential implications for U.S. political stability, as it could lead to significant repercussions across various sectors[6][18]. Asset Allocation Insights - Domestic investment institutions are expected to start positioning for 2026 in December, driven by anticipated monetary easing following the appointment of a new Fed chair[6][19]. - The Q2 2026 PCE index is likely to turn positive, potentially signaling the start of an inflationary trend[6][19]. Market Performance Overview - A-shares experienced collective declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% this week, while the Shenzhen Component fell 5.13%[40]. - The U.S. stock market also faced downward adjustments, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by 1.91%[40].

Group 1 - Recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily due to weak domestic economic data, a strong US dollar index, year-end performance pressures, and a cautious funding environment [2][4][50] - The key signals for market stabilization will come from the political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference scheduled for December, which are expected to provide strong expansionary policies [5][50][51] - The market is likely to remain in a data and policy vacuum in the short term, but there is potential for a rebound in the first quarter of the following year, with a high probability of reaching new highs [6][51] Group 2 - The performance of technology stocks may lag behind large-cap blue-chip and financial cyclical stocks during this period, with a focus on cyclical resource price increases, service consumption, and self-sufficiency as the main investment themes [6][51] - The A-share market has shown a significant adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.9% and the CSI 300 Index falling 3.8% in a single week, marking the largest weekly decline since April [7][50] - The small-cap stocks have faced increased pressure as they approach the performance disclosure period, leading to a notable underperformance compared to larger indices [20][21][50]

汽车行业周报 ❑ 个股行情回顾 汽车板块个股：本周，汽车板块个股下跌居多。其中，涨幅居前的个股有天 普股份（+14.7%）、路畅科技（+8.1%）和浙江荣泰（+7.6%）；跌幅居前 的个股有富临精工（-20.3%）、新朋股份（-18.1%）和立中集团（-17.2%）。 重点覆盖个股：本周，已覆盖个股周度下跌居多。其中，涨幅居前的个股为 康隆达（+8.3%）、华纬科技（+4.3%）和江淮汽车（+0.8%）；跌幅居前的 个股有道氏技术（-15.5%）、星源卓镁（-14.7%）和神驰机电（-11.7%）。 华为连发"两境"新品牌，特斯拉开放 Robotaxi 服务 中游制造/汽车 ❑ 风险提示：生产不及预期；消费不及预期；盈利不及预期。 11 月 16 日至 11 月 23 日，汽车行业整体下跌 5.1%。11 月 20 日，东风与华为 乾崑深度合作的 DH 项目中文品牌定名"奕境"，首款车型将于明年 4 月的北 京车展发布，后续每年至少有一款全新车型上市。同日，启境品牌将在华为乾 崑生态大会上正式发布，明年启境计划推出两款车型，首款车型将于明年 6 月 上市交付。 证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 11 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 23 日 维持观望，大盘风格或仍将占优 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn ❑ 择时观点上，本周继续维持震荡观望的判断，核心原因有三点，较前期有所 扩充：一是交易维度信号偏弱，目前全市场 Beta 离散度上行、PB 分化度下 行、全 A 交易量能下行，三者均给出偏向谨慎信号。简而言之，即市场缺乏 交易主线，未能形成新的趋势。二是基本面维度有喜有忧，即中上游景气度 回升较为明显，但下游景气度以及信贷数据不及预期。三是全球流动性风险 仍未解除，上周市场回调的主要原因在于美联储 12 月降息预期显著回落导 致全球流动性收缩，虽然周五美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯表示"近期内有进 一步调整利率的空间"，带动美股企稳，但当前美联储内部分歧仍较大，在 12 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity market declined across the board, with the large - cap value style being relatively resilient and the North - Star 50 index experiencing a significant decline. Among industries, the banking sector had the smallest decline, while the power equipment & new energy and comprehensive sectors had larger declines [1][2][6]. - The average return of all - market active equity funds was - 4.83%. Funds with better performance were heavily invested in the automobile and banking industries. Among industry - themed funds, financial and real estate funds had relatively leading average returns, while pharmaceutical sector funds had relatively lagging average returns [2][11]. - In the bond market, the interest - rate bond market declined, the credit - bond market rose, and the convertible - bond market declined. The average returns of short - term and medium - to - long - term bond funds were 0.02%, while the average returns of equity - linked bond funds and convertible - bond funds were negative [1][2]. - As of November 19, 2025, the average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample in the past week were - 0.43%, - 1.12%, and - 1.55% respectively [2]. - During the statistical period, the average declines of equity - oriented, index - type, other - type, and bond - type QDII funds were 2.96%, 3.45%, 1.89%, and 0.20% respectively. This week, REITs declined by an average of 1.20% [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The equity market declined across the board this week. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4454 points, down 3.77%; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3835 points, down 3.9%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538 points, down 5.13%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 2920 points, down 6.15%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index declined by 5.09% and the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by 7.18% [6]. - In terms of industries, the banking sector declined the least, by 0.87%, while the power equipment & new energy and comprehensive sectors declined by 9.41% and 9.47% respectively [9]. 3.2 Key Fund Tracking 3.2.1 Active Equity - **Fund Performance**: The average return of all - market funds in the sample this week was - 4.83%. Funds with better performance were heavily invested in the automobile and banking industries. Among industry funds, financial and real estate funds had relatively leading average returns, while pharmaceutical sector funds had relatively lagging average returns [11][12]. - **Position Estimation**: This week, the positions of common stock - type and partial - stock hybrid funds both decreased. Compared with the previous week, the position of common stock - type funds decreased by 0.31 percentage points, and that of partial - stock hybrid funds decreased by 0.05 percentage points. Actively managed partial - stock funds increased their allocation to consumption, finance, and cyclical sectors and reduced their allocation to stable and growth sectors [17]. 3.2.2 Bond - Type Funds - **Bond Market Performance**: The credit - bond market rose this week. The ChinaBond Total Wealth Index closed at 246.39, down 0.01% from last week; the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Index closed at 246.64, down 0.05% from last week; and the ChinaBond Credit Bond Index closed at 225.09, up 0.04% from last week. The convertible - bond market declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index closing at 482.94, down 1.78% week - on - week, and the trading volume was 318 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.316 billion yuan from last week [20][22]. - **Fund Performance Overview**: The average return of short - term bond funds this week was 0.02%, and the median was 0.03%; the average return of medium - to - long - term bond funds was 0.02%, and the median was 0.02%. The average returns of first - tier and second - tier bond funds were - 0.16% and - 0.77% respectively. The average return of partial - bond hybrid funds was - 1.1%, and the median was - 0.99%; the average return of low - position flexible - allocation funds was - 0.84%, and the median was - 0.67%. The average return of convertible - bond funds was - 2.41%, and the median was - 2.4% [25][27][29]. 3.2.3 FOF As of November 19, 2025, the average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample in the past week were - 0.43%, - 1.12%, and - 1.55% respectively [2][32]. 3.2.4 QDII During the statistical period, the average declines of equity - oriented, index - type, other - type, and bond - type QDII funds were 2.96%, 3.45%, 1.89%, and 0.20% respectively [2]. 3.2.5 REITs This week, REITs declined by an average of 1.20%. Among them, CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT had a relatively high increase, rising 0.96% in the past week. China Asset Management CR Land Ucommune REIT had the highest liquidity, with a trading volume of 128.2851 million yuan in the past week [36][37].