证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 6 月 3 日 增量资金相对均衡，大盘风格为主 ❑大类资产表现复盘：股票市场方面，全球股市普涨，美欧>港股＞A 股。外汇方面， 美元兑人民币汇率震荡下行，英镑兑美元大幅升值。大宗商品方面，原油、白银 价格上涨，黄金价格基本持平。原油价格快速上涨主要受益于 OPEC+增产节奏放 缓和美国库存超预期下降，以及地缘风险支撑。债市方面，美债利率持续上行， 中债利率震荡。 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202506） ❑流动性与资金供需：6 月增量资金或有望温和净流入，各类资金或相对均衡。5 月 央行降准降息落地，MLF 加量续作，资金利率低位波动，资金面整体宽松，展望 6 月随着关税对经济的影响逐渐显现，资金面有望维持宽松。关税对美国通胀的影 响在 4 月的数据中仍不明显，市场对美联储降息预期整体降温，全年降息预期收 敛至 1-2 次，首次降息时点推迟至 9 月。5 月股票市场可跟踪资金紧平衡，各类增 量资金相对均衡。资金供给端，新发偏股基金规模有所收窄；市场冲高回落，ETF 转为净赎回；市场风险偏好有所改善，但融资资金仅小幅净流入。资金需求端， 重要股东净减持规模扩大 ...

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 如何基于个股股价跳跃行为做择时？ 本报告研究了股价跳跃在指数择时上的应用。我们首先构建了跳跃不平衡指标，进 一步创新性的将跳跃不平衡指标区分为隐含不平衡指标与暴露不平衡指标，验证了 这些指标对市场收益预测的有效性。本报告的核心结论如下： 风险提示：本报告结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发 生变化时模型存在失效的风险；本报告所提及个股或基金仅表示与相关主题有一定 关联性，不构成任何投资建议。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@ cmschina.com.cn 杨航 S1090523010004 yanghang4@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 6 月 3 日 专题报告 ❑ 跳跃不平衡指标衡量了股票价格向上跳跃与向下跳跃的力量差。使用跳跃 数量不平衡指标∆ 指标进行择时有一定效果。策略年化收益 6.23%， 夏普比为 0.57，盈亏比 1.46，年化超额为 4.48%，夏普比为 0.34。 ❑ 我们将受市场跳跃影响的个股跳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing explosive growth in revenue, driven by new consumer demand for floor cleaning machines and washing machines, with a current valuation of 20 times earnings, indicating significant undervaluation [1]. - The company has achieved leading market share in both sweeping and washing machines, with online market share for sweeping machines rising to 26% in April 2025, surpassing competitors [6]. - The report forecasts a robust growth trajectory for the company's revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected net profits of 20 billion, 25 billion, and 30 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,654 million in 2023 to 24,050 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 31% [2][13]. - Operating profit is expected to fluctuate, with a peak in 2023 at 2,317 million, followed by a decline in 2024, and then a recovery to 3,406 million by 2027 [2][13]. - The company's net profit is projected to show a slight decline in 2024, with a recovery in subsequent years, reaching 3,018 million by 2027 [2][13]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.5 in 2023 to 13.9 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [2][13]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has successfully expanded its market presence in overseas markets, achieving leading sales positions in regions such as Northern Europe and Turkey [6]. - The introduction of new products and pricing strategies has allowed the company to capture significant market share, particularly in the domestic market, where it has seen substantial growth in both online and offline sales [6]. - The competitive landscape is becoming less intense, allowing the company to solidify its market leadership [6].

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 腾讯音乐-SW（01698.HK） 音乐恒久远，腾讯音乐始终相伴 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 公司背靠腾讯，内容版权优势稳固，在 AIGC 等创新技术的赋能下持续推进会 员权益分层化、多元化，有望实现付费率及 ARPU 值的进一步提升，首次覆盖 给予"强烈推荐"评级。 ❑ 风险提示：付费用户数增长不及预期、行业竞争加剧、行业监管收紧。 强烈推荐（首次） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：68.9 港元 基础数据 财务数据与估值 | 总股本（百万股） | 3098 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1433 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 220.9 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 102.2 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 23.6 | | ROE（TTM） | 9.1 | | 资产负债率 | 23.3% | | 主要股东 | 腾讯控股有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 47.7967% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 36 63 22 相对表现 30 43 -2 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 06 月 03 日 量化新规即将正式实施，ETF 时隔五周转为净流入 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0603） 展望 6 月，市场可能会呈现指数震荡蓄力，大盘、质量类指数相对占优的格局。 从资金面看，量化资金即将面对新规约束，预计活跃度会有所下降，而当前个 人投资者增量资金有限，并且小微盘风格集中度来到高位。目前监管环境、资 金环境对偏贵的中小风格相对不利。总体来看，宽基指数在六月偏震荡的概率 较大，而基本面、流动性和监管环境更加有利于权重、质量类风格的表现。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场 SCP 范式研究之一》， 2017 年 10 月 3. 《稳定币法案对于美债的影响 或较为有限——金融市场流动性 与监管动态周报(0527)》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 92.26↓ | | ETF 净申购 | 57.0 ...

显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 20 期） 频率：每周 目前看，5 月供给形势可能仍较为稳定，需求方面出口和消费相对较好，房地 产投资继续拖累投资整体形势。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 40 ——并购重组新规出台，央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-03 2、《美国国内政治加剧对外政 策动荡———国际时政周评》 2025-06-02 3、《PPI 或进一步下探——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-06-02 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 如何看待 5 月宏观经济形势 正文目录 | 1、开工率 | | --- | | 2、产能利用率…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive passive safety industry, with a market share exceeding 35%, and is actively expanding into overseas markets, particularly through its production base in Vietnam [4][15]. - The company is strategically investing in the semiconductor and computing power manufacturing sectors, having acquired a 42.16% stake in Fuchuang Youyue and planning to increase its ownership to 100% [3][4]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development and new industrial opportunities, leveraging both internal growth and external investments [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Strengthening Passive Safety Business and Embracing Overseas Markets - The company is positioned in high-end, domestic, and new energy directions for its automotive passive safety products, with a projected revenue of approximately RMB 2.58 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.23% [2][4]. - The company has established a production base in Vietnam, which officially commenced operations in April 2025, with a planned capacity of approximately RMB 2 billion, targeting Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, and India [2][4][61]. - The revenue from new energy vehicle manufacturers is expected to account for nearly 30% of total revenue in 2024, driven by the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [2][40]. 2. Entering the Computing Power Manufacturing Sector - The company has strategically invested in Fuchuang Youyue, committing a total of RMB 383.36 million to acquire a significant stake, with plans to fully integrate the company into its operations [3][4]. - The focus on semiconductor and computing power manufacturing aligns with national strategic initiatives and the evolving industrial landscape [1][3]. - The company aims to enhance its business layout in the semiconductor sector and integrate the supply chain of Fuchuang Youyue [3][4]. 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 497 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 79% [9][4]. - The report anticipates continued revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 2.935 billion in 2025, reflecting a 33% increase [9][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong financial position, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.8% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 37.6% [4][9].

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 中国通信服务（00552.HK） 中国综合智慧服务龙头，AI 大模型浪潮点燃增长新引擎 TMT 及中小盘/通信 ❑ 风险提示：电信业资本开支下降风险、营运资金需求增加的风险、国际业务 运营及有关风险、算力资本支出不及预期风险、战略新兴产业发展风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 149139 | 150536 | 154438 | 159884 | 166007 | | 同比增长 | 6% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2849 | 3057 | 3244 | 3382 | 3553 | | 同比增长 | 16% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 5% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3584 | 3607 | 3731 | 3901 | 4105 | | 同比增长 | 7% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 5% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, and trading volume. It also provides information on the planned issuance of local government bonds in the second quarter of 2025 and the investment directions of newly - added special bonds [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 228.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of 137.4 billion yuan. The issuance of new general bonds was 23.6 billion yuan, new special bonds 158 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds 41.6 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds 5.1 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 109.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 50.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 86.9 billion yuan compared to this week [1][3]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 7 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (32%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 60%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportion of 10 - year bonds decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of about 19 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds issued a total of 5 billion yuan. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, with a total of 1.6568 trillion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Hubei plan to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 98.4 billion yuan, 90.1 billion yuan, and 80.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 7.8bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 30 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 22.3bp. Except for the 20 - year and 30 - year bonds, the weighted average issuance spreads of other terms narrowed [1]. - **Investment Directions of Raised Funds**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (21%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 7.8% compared to 2024 [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 36 regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the second quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance scale in April and May, the total planned issuance in the second quarter is expected to reach 2.35 trillion yuan, with 873.5 billion yuan planned for June. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the second quarter is 1273.2 billion yuan and 1073.1 billion yuan respectively [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds had advantages in secondary spreads, with spreads of 20.7bp and 19.6bp respectively. The secondary spread of 10 - year bonds widened significantly. From the perspective of historical quantiles in the past three years, the 30 - year local government bond's secondary spread quantile was relatively high, reaching 87%. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of over 20 years in all types of regions had relatively high secondary spreads, and 10 - 15 - year bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively higher secondary spreads [4][5]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 380.9 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.75%. Jiangsu, Shandong, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps had relatively high turnover rates, and the trading volumes of Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan were large, reaching 45.3 billion yuan, 40.9 billion yuan, and 30.4 billion yuan respectively [5].

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 中国通信服务（00552.HK） 中国综合智慧服务龙头，AI 大模型浪潮点燃增长新引擎 TMT 及中小盘/通信 ❑ 风险提示：电信业资本开支下降风险、营运资金需求增加的风险、国际业务 运营及有关风险、算力资本支出不及预期风险、战略新兴产业发展风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 149139 | 150536 | 154438 | 159884 | 166007 | | 同比增长 | 6% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2849 | 3057 | 3244 | 3382 | 3553 | | 同比增长 | 16% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 5% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3584 | 3607 | 3731 | 3901 | 4105 | | 同比增长 | 7% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 5% | ...