Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4][8]. Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in key operating indicators, with a revenue of 14.66 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 7.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan, up 27.6% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company is focusing on business transformation, increasing investments in new energy, emerging industries, and vehicle leasing, which have led to significant revenue growth in these sectors [2][3]. - Despite a decline in financing leasing income by 6.2% year-on-year, the company has seen substantial growth in other income sources, particularly from asset disposal and foreign exchange gains [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.66 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan, resulting in an annualized ROE of 11.7% [7]. - The total asset size reached 41.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.9% increase from the beginning of the year [7]. - The company maintained a low non-performing asset ratio of 0.63% and a high provision coverage ratio of 540.05% for financing leasing-related non-performing assets [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Financing leasing income accounted for 34.4% of total revenue, down 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, while operating leasing income accounted for 47.8%, down 4.5 percentage points [7]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue from green energy and high-end equipment leasing, with respective revenues of 1.858 billion yuan and 1.052 billion yuan, growing 23.9% and 14.1% year-on-year [2]. Future Projections - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 4.9 billion yuan, 5.2 billion yuan, and 5.8 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 5.4%, and 11.9% respectively [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Strong Buy" [3] Core Views - The company has reached a turning point in Q2 performance, with significant growth in overseas orders for power transmission and transformation equipment [7] - The company reported a total revenue of 48.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.18 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year [1][7] - The international orders for the power transmission and transformation sector have shown a high growth rate, with new domestic orders increasing by 14% and international orders rising by 65.9% [7] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 104.52 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 6.02 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 46% increase compared to 2024 [2] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 82.8 billion yuan, with a current share price of 16.38 yuan [3] Performance Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 16.6% in Q2 2025, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin improved to 7.0%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 6.0% [3] Business Segments - The power transmission and transformation segment generated revenue of 23.54 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 20% increase year-on-year [7] - The coal business reported revenue of 8.83 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year, while the power generation segment saw a 29.4% increase in revenue to 3.46 billion yuan [7] - The new energy segment's revenue declined by 38% to 6.31 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant drop in polysilicon production [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company’s long-term strategy of focusing on high-end equipment manufacturing in power transmission and transformation, along with its energy and new materials sectors, positions it well for future growth [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 has been revised upwards to 6 billion yuan, reflecting the anticipated recovery in the polysilicon market and sustained demand in the power transmission sector [7]

美联储降息落地对国内长债难言利好。首先中国央行货币政策以内为主，并兼 顾内外均衡。国内仍处于前期降息后的效果观察期，虽然近期制造业 PMI 回落， 但是这存在一定的季节性扰动，中国央行是否在联储降息后开启降息仍需观察。 而美联储降息会提升风险偏好，对于权益市场更为利好，这会对长债带来压力。 央行是否重启购买国债仍有很大的不确定性。首先，年内政府债券发行规模已 经快接近尾声，后续政府债券发行压力已经不大。其次，目前债券市场仍然较 为平稳，并没有出现大的风险。利率曲线也处于较合适的状态。而且央行即使 重启买债对长债利好或许有限。这要看央行购买的国债期限，以及央行重启买 债对风险偏好的提振，如果股市反应更为积极，则对长债反而可能是利空。 三、债市策略继续以防守为主，中短久期信用相对占优，长久期利率做交易 年内地产政策存在继续加码的可能性，这会对后续长债利率带来利空扰动。而 风险偏好仍处于上升期，这也对长债偏不利。因而债市整体采取防守策略，需 要控制久期。中短久期信用债相对性价比提升，建议增配。长债依然采取交易 性策略，10 年国债在 1.8%以上可以开始关注短期配置价值。由于前期长债利 率快速上行，从技术面来看，长 ...

Domestic Economic Insights - Economic data from July and August indicates significant pressure on domestic demand and a slowdown in external demand, leading to an increased probability of policy adjustments in the coming month[2] - In August, fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% in July, with infrastructure investment growth decreasing from 7.3% to 5.4%[18] - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, a decline from 3.7% in July, reflecting ongoing economic challenges[18] Currency and Monetary Policy - The phase of active appreciation of the RMB may be temporarily over, as the exchange rate is influenced by the prospects of Sino-U.S. and Sino-European trade talks[2] - Following the September FOMC meeting, the USD has paused its depreciation, reducing the passive appreciation pressure on the RMB[2] - The central bank's liquidity tightening during the RMB appreciation process is expected to shift back to a more abundant liquidity environment[2] International Economic Developments - The September FOMC cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with a focus on managing risks rather than responding to inflation, indicating a cautious economic outlook[17] - Upcoming Sino-U.S. talks are anticipated, with a potential meeting at APEC on October 31, and further negotiations expected before November[17] - Market volatility in overseas risk assets is expected in the coming weeks, but a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks remains[17] Market Performance Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a period of consolidation, while the Hong Kong market has seen slight gains[41] - U.S. stocks have shown a comprehensive upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.05% and the S&P 500 increasing by 1.22%[42] - Gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, while international crude oil prices have seen a slight decline[38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices have rebounded due to non-electric demand and winter stockpiling, with significant price increases observed in various coal indices as of September 19, 2025 [10][11]. - The report notes a slight recovery in the coking coal market, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream steel companies, although further price increases may be limited [10]. - The overall sentiment in the coal market remains strong, with expectations of continued price strength in the short term, despite potential constraints from rising prices affecting purchasing enthusiasm [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment View - As of September 19, 2025, the price indices for various coal types have shown significant weekly increases, with the Yulin 5800 index at 598.0 CNY/ton (+44.0 CNY), the Ordos 5500 index at 521.0 CNY/ton (+19.0 CNY), and the Datong 5500 index at 576.0 CNY/ton (+21.0 CNY) [10]. - The coking coal market has stabilized, with prices for major coking coal indices also showing increases, such as the Shanxi main coking coal at 1610 CNY/ton (+60 CNY) [10]. 2. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The coal mining index increased by 3.77% while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.44%, indicating a relative outperformance of coal stocks [11]. - Major coal companies have shown varied performance, with significant gains for companies like Yongtai Energy (+13.42%) and Luan Environmental Energy (+13.04%) [11]. 3. Key Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key coal companies, including China Shenhua (total market value: 755.35 billion CNY, PE: 12.9), Shaanxi Coal (total market value: 200.88 billion CNY, PE: 9.0), and others, indicating a range of valuations and expected profitability [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on non-ferrous metal stocks, suggesting to buy on dips [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the recent decline in metal prices has ended, leading to increased purchasing activity from downstream buyers. It emphasizes a long-term bullish view on non-ferrous resources, particularly copper, gold, silver, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten, antimony, and cobalt [1][3]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen a significant performance with a 1-month absolute return of 5.9%, a 6-month return of 24.7%, and a 12-month return of 88.3% [3]. - The report highlights the recent fluctuations in metal prices, with copper inventory increasing by 0.46 thousand tons to 148.9 thousand tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5,075 tons to 148 thousand tons [3][6]. - The report notes that the price of gallium has increased by 3.74% due to tight supply and demand dynamics, while molybdenum prices have decreased by 2.40% due to weakened demand [3][6]. Key Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report anticipates a decrease in copper inventory due to pre-holiday stocking, supporting copper prices in the medium to long term. Key companies to watch include Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Jiangxi Copper [3][6]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a slight increase in aluminum inventory but expects a positive trend in aluminum prices and profits due to improved downstream consumption [3][6]. - **Cobalt**: The report mentions that the Democratic Republic of Congo is considering extending its cobalt export ban for two more months, which could lead to a supply shortage and price increases for cobalt intermediates [6][3]. Stock Performance - The report identifies the top-performing stock in the non-ferrous sector as Boqian New Materials, which saw a weekly increase of 14.76%, while Xianglu Tungsten experienced the largest decline at -12.66% [3][6].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 21 日 利多因素边际走弱，继续看多但程度下降 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250921 1. 当前市场观察 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 定期报告 ❑ 本周市场震荡分化，大盘价值风格走弱，小盘成长风格维持偏强走势。具体 来看，万得全 A 指数下跌约 0.18%，上证 50、沪深 300 分别下跌约 1.95%、 0.41%，中证 1000 则上涨约 0.23%。国证价值下跌约 2.06%，而国证成长却 上涨约 1.49%，创业板指、科创 50 分别上涨约 2.35%、1.84%。 ❑ 择时方面，我们继续看多 A 股，但短期看好程度有所下降。继续看好的核心 原因为当前市场交易情绪仍相对较强、人民币升值背景下内外部流动性宽 裕、基本面上信贷脉冲 ...

Group 1: US-China Relations - The fourth round of US-China trade talks occurred on September 14-15, focusing on resolving short-term risks and stabilizing market expectations, with a consensus on addressing issues like TikTok[4] - A phone call between the US and Chinese presidents on September 19 provided strategic guidance for the stable development of bilateral relations[9] - Future interactions between the US and China are anticipated, including potential discussions on fentanyl tariffs and agricultural exports, with a significant meeting at the APEC summit in late October[16] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include US military actions against alleged drug trafficking vessels from Venezuela and escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine[12] - The EU has proposed new sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions, amid continued military actions in Ukraine[12] - The signing of a strategic defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan highlights the shifting dynamics in regional security[12] Group 3: US Domestic Policies and Tariffs - The US Supreme Court will hear arguments on the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on November 5, which may influence future tariff policies[20] - The Trump administration is focusing on reinforcing domestic industry security through ongoing Section 232 investigations in various sectors, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals[20] - A new fee of $100,000 on H-1B visas has been introduced, reflecting the administration's political motivations and potential impacts on the tech industry[20]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 21 日 穿越波动周期的投资罗盘 ——招商证券大类资产配置系列指数投资价值分析 风险提示：本报告基于对历史数据的分析，当市场环境变化时，存在失效风险。 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 江雨航 S1090525070014 jiangyuhang1@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 招商证券全球大类资产配置策略指数（GARRI）、招商证券境内大类资产配置 策略指数 2.0（CARRI2）是由招商证券开发设计的量化策略指数，通过动量趋 势跟踪方法对在全球范围或中国境内的权益、债券和商品类的资产进行轮动配 置，通过风险平价、波动率控制以及逐日盯市进行止盈止损的方法来控制投资组 合整体的波动水平，提供长期稳健的资产配置方案。 指数资产池：涵盖股票指数、国债期货及现货、贵金属期货和商品期货四类资 产。全球配置 GARRI 指数包括沪深 300、中证 500、纳斯达克 100、标普 500 ...

Group 1 - The financing trend around the National Day holiday typically shows a pattern of "contraction before the holiday and explosion after" [1][5][12] - Historical data indicates that the A-share market generally experiences a calendar effect, with a tendency for major indices to rebound after the holiday [5][14][22] - The probability of major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 rising after the National Day holiday exceeds 60% based on the past decade [5][14][22] Group 2 - Key sectors that are expected to perform well post-holiday include computer, communication, and electronics, with banks, non-bank financials, and automobiles also showing strong performance in the following weeks [5][18][21] - The financing balance has shown a significant increase, with a net inflow of 558.3 billion yuan since July, indicating that financing has become a major driving force for market growth [7][9][28] - The current financing balance reached 2.39 trillion yuan, which is above historical highs, although it still represents only 2.54% of the A-share market's circulating value [9][10][28] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is part of a preventive easing strategy, which historically leads to higher probabilities of A-share and Hong Kong stock market gains [6][25][26] - The report suggests a continued focus on growth-oriented sectors, particularly in solid-state batteries, AI computing, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [1][25][28]