Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Timing Model for Nonferrous Metals - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses macroeconomic scoring to time the allocation between the CSI SW Nonferrous Metals Index and the Wind All A Index, leveraging the dominant role of copper and other industrial metals in the nonferrous metals sector[19][20] - **Model Construction Process**: - The macroeconomic score for copper is calculated based on global economic and inflationary factors - Allocation Rule: - If the macro score > 0, allocate to the CSI SW Nonferrous Metals Index - Otherwise, allocate to the Wind All A Index - Backtesting Period: March 2009 to September 2025 - Formula: Not explicitly provided, but the scoring system is based on historical macroeconomic data[19][20] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong timing ability, capturing the upward trends in the nonferrous metals sector, except during 2012-2013 when the sector underperformed despite a bullish signal[20] 2. Model Name: Comprehensive Allocation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy dynamically allocates weights to industries based on their economic cycle signals (upward, flat, or downward) and crowding levels, with flat-cycle industries receiving half the weight of upward-cycle industries[35] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify industries with upward or flat economic cycle signals - Exclude industries with high crowding levels - Assign weights: - Upward-cycle industries: Full weight - Flat-cycle industries: Half weight - Monthly updates based on the latest signals[35] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy underperformed its benchmarks in the most recent month, suggesting potential limitations in capturing short-term market dynamics[35] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing Model for Nonferrous Metals - **Excess Return**: 245% relative to the Wind All A Index during the backtesting period (March 2009 - September 2025)[20] 2. Comprehensive Allocation Strategy - **1-Month Return**: 4.6% - **Excess Return vs. Equal-Weighted Index**: -5.7% - **Excess Return vs. CSI 800**: -3.9%[35][39] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Macroeconomic Score for Copper - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the economic and inflationary environment to assess the attractiveness of copper as a leading indicator for the nonferrous metals sector[19][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Historical macroeconomic data is used to calculate a score for copper - The score ranges from negative to positive, reflecting unfavorable to favorable conditions[21] - Formula: Not explicitly provided, but the scoring system is derived from macroeconomic indicators[21] 2. Factor Name: Sector Crowding Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the crowding level in various sectors to identify potential risks of over-concentration[32][34] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the crowding level for each sector based on historical trading data - Identify sectors exceeding the 95% warning threshold[32][34] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Macroeconomic Score for Copper - **Latest Score**: 4, indicating a historically high level of attractiveness for the nonferrous metals sector[19][21] 2. Sector Crowding Indicator - **Sectors Above 95% Threshold**: Nonferrous Metals, Electronics, Communication, Machinery, Comprehensive, Beauty & Personal Care, Defense, and Pharmaceuticals[32][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic robotics firm, with an upward turning point in its motion control business. The acquisition by Haier is expected to accelerate the implementation of embodied intelligence and humanoid robots beyond expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Exceeding Expectations - The market perceives the company's growth and profitability as weak. However, the company is a leader in control technology with strong product iteration capabilities. It ranks second globally in elevator controllers and fourth in domestic SCARA industrial robot shipments. The company has pioneered domestic replacements in automation products and achieved integration in robot drive control [2] - Haier's acquisition is expected to benefit the company as it continues to push for embodied intelligence. Haier has established a robotics division, initiated a 10 billion yuan investment fund for embodied intelligence, formed an innovation alliance, and launched household robots [2][31] - The company plans to launch an embodied intelligent welding solution in September 2025 and an intelligent controller by the end of 2025, with a focus on humanoid robots [3][37] 2. Management and Profitability Improvement - Haier's shareholding and voting rights in the company are expected to increase significantly, potentially raising its stake from 10% to 26.83% and voting rights from 29.24% to 42.47% after a planned capital increase [4][24] - Key management positions are held by members from Haier, which is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability through Haier's effective management model [5][29] 3. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.13 billion yuan, 0.84 billion yuan, and 1.90 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround and growth rates of 567% and 128% respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for this period is estimated at approximately 290% [11] - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 949, 142, and 62 for the years 2025 to 2027 [11] 4. Revenue and Profit Structure - The company has three main business segments: elevator control, robot control, and general control and drive. In 2024, the revenue from these segments is expected to be 6.6 billion yuan, 15.9 billion yuan, and 8.0 billion yuan respectively [14] - The gross margin for the elevator control segment is relatively high, with improvements noted in the margins for general control and robot segments [22]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic [2] Core Insights - Solid-state batteries are expected to achieve a technological breakthrough in electrolyte technology by 2027 and may reach industrialization by 2030, with sulfide solid-state batteries being the most emphasized route domestically and internationally [3][24] - The current focus is on sulfide electrolytes, while composite electrolytes are anticipated to be the best long-term solution [4][33] - High-nickel ternary materials and silicon-carbon anodes are expected to dominate in the short term, with lithium-rich manganese-based and lithium metal anodes being the long-term goals [5][56] - Nickel-coated or nickel-based current collectors are being developed to address corrosion issues, while porous copper foils are being explored for their lightweight and elastic properties [6] - Other materials such as single-walled carbon nanotubes and UV adhesives are also gaining attention for their potential in solid-state battery applications [7] Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Overview - Solid-state batteries are considered the ultimate form of lithium batteries, balancing safety and energy density [16][18] - The timeline for achieving significant milestones includes 200-300 Wh/kg energy density by 2027 and 400 Wh/kg by 2030 [19][24] Electrolytes - Sulfide electrolytes are currently the focus, with challenges in cost reduction and production scalability [4][39] - The development of halide electrolytes is also being pursued to enhance electrochemical stability and compatibility with high-voltage cathodes [44] Cathode Materials - High-nickel ternary materials are expected to be the primary choice for solid-state batteries, with ongoing modifications to improve performance [45][50] - Lithium-rich manganese-based materials are being developed to enhance energy density and reduce costs [55] Anode Materials - CVD silicon-carbon anodes are emerging as a leading option due to their performance and cost advantages, with significant growth expected in the coming years [61] - Lithium metal anodes are viewed as the ultimate solution, with ongoing research to address associated challenges [64] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in various material segments, including sulfide electrolytes, high-nickel ternary cathodes, CVD silicon-carbon anodes, and nickel-based current collectors [8]

Inflation Data Summary - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0% and market expectations of -0.2%[1] - Month-on-month CPI growth was 0%, down from 0.4% in July, primarily due to falling food prices[2] - August PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, an improvement from -3.6% in July, aligning with market expectations[5] Price Movement Insights - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year in August, with significant declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%)[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight increase from the previous month[3] - Industrial producer purchase prices decreased by 4% year-on-year, showing a minor improvement from -4.5% in July[7] Market Outlook - The second half of the year may see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by potential easing in US-China trade relations and risk mitigation from "stabilizing" funds[1] - A-shares are expected to experience a structural market with alternating low-value dividends and technology growth[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1]

Market Overview - On September 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.7%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 2.38%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.23%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.19% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on September 9 were real estate (+1.64%), comprehensive (+0.94%), banking (+0.83%), non-ferrous metals (+0.75%), and light industry manufacturing (+0.53%). The worst-performing sectors included electronics (-2.7%), computers (-2.07%), communications (-1.91%), pharmaceutical biology (-1.91%), and national defense and military industry (-1.9%) [4][6] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on September 9 was 21,521 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 10.231 billion Hong Kong dollars [6] Company Recommendation - The report recommends Shandong Weida (002026) as a leading player in electric tool accessories, highlighting its multi-business expansion that opens up growth opportunities. The company has ample cash reserves to support long-term development [7] - The expected revenue for Shandong Weida from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 2,480 million yuan, 2,719 million yuan, and 2,958 million yuan, with revenue growth rates of 12%, 10%, and 9% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 332 million yuan, 367 million yuan, and 402 million yuan, with net profit growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 9% respectively. Earnings per share are expected to be 0.75 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 17, and 15 times [7] Strategic Insights - The report discusses the recovery of active equity fund allocations, with ETF funds acting as market stabilizers. It notes that individual investors are increasingly trend-driven, and foreign capital activity has risen, benefiting quantitative funds [8][9] - It is anticipated that more active equity incremental funds will enter the market, driven by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and potential improvements in the fundamental economy [9] - The restaurant sector is identified as having a generally low valuation, presenting a rare investment opportunity. The report suggests that since July, more leading brands have shown signs of recovery, indicating that it is a good time to invest [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3][20] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing growth driven by new energy vehicles and exports, with robots opening up new growth opportunities [1] - Geely Automobile's revenue increased by 27% year-on-year to 150.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a total sales volume of 1.41 million vehicles, a 47% increase year-on-year [9] - King Long Automobile's export sales surged, accounting for 63% of total sales in the first half of 2025, compared to 40% in the same period last year [10] - Major automotive parts companies like Haoneng and Longsheng Technology are showing positive revenue growth, with Haoneng's revenue up 10.3% year-on-year to 1.253 billion yuan [11][12] Summary by Sections Passenger and Commercial Vehicle Sector - Geely Automobile's revenue for H1 2025 reached 150.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.3 billion yuan, a 14% decrease year-on-year [9] - King Long Automobile's revenue for H1 2025 was 10.327 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.16 billion yuan, a 75.1% increase year-on-year [10] Automotive Parts Sector - Haoneng's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.253 billion yuan, with a net profit of 184 million yuan, reflecting a 13.4% increase year-on-year [11] - Longsheng Technology's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.224 billion yuan, with a net profit of 105 million yuan, a 1.4% increase year-on-year [12] - Xiling Power's revenue for H1 2025 was 865 million yuan, with a net profit of 56 million yuan, a 130.1% increase year-on-year [13] - Wuxi Zhenhua's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.287 billion yuan, with a net profit of 201 million yuan, a 27.2% increase year-on-year [16] - New Spring's revenue for H1 2025 was 7.5 billion yuan, a 21.01% increase year-on-year [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The company has made a strategic choice to sacrifice short-term scale for cash flow security, resulting in a significant decline in sales volume and revenue [1][2] - Despite a decrease in revenue and profit, the company has maintained a solid financial foundation by timely repaying all due debts and optimizing its debt structure [3][9] - The management style is pragmatic and stable, focusing on cash flow and operational efficiency, while strategically reducing investments and concentrating on core cities [8][9] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a contracted area of 1.254 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 47.84%, and a contracted amount of 17.15 billion yuan, down 52.52% year-on-year [1] - The decline in sales is attributed to both market conditions and reduced investment leading to lower new supply [1] Profitability - The company reported an operating income of 15.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.80%, and a net loss of approximately 3.7 billion yuan attributable to the parent company [2] - The loss is due to reduced sales volume, lower gross margins on some projects, and asset impairment provisions [2] Financial Stability - The company successfully repaid all due debts, including medium-term notes, which boosts market confidence [3] - As of the reporting period, 98.5% of interest-bearing liabilities are bank loans, with long-term liabilities accounting for 60.88% of total interest-bearing liabilities, indicating a stable debt structure [3] Management Strategy - The company has implemented a flat organizational structure to enhance operational efficiency and focus resources on core businesses and high-potential cities [8] - The total land reserve is approximately 27.01 million square meters, with 79% located in first and second-tier cities, allowing the company to benefit from stable markets and population inflows [8] Product Quality - The company prioritizes project delivery, achieving high customer satisfaction ratings above 90% for several projects, which strengthens its brand reputation [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The introduction of policies to expand service consumption is expected to stimulate incremental demand, and the civil aviation sector's efforts to combat "involution" are likely to promote a virtuous cycle of volume and price [1][2] - The expansion of visa-free policies is anticipated to further increase international flight volumes, with significant recovery observed in international passenger flights [3] - The industry is currently experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with expectations for ticket prices to show positive year-on-year growth in Q4 due to low base effects [4] - OPEC+ has decided to increase production, which may lead to a downward trend in oil prices, benefiting airlines by reducing fuel costs [5] Summary by Sections Policy and Demand - Policies aimed at expanding service consumption are set to be introduced in September, focusing on enhancing service supply capabilities and stimulating new consumption patterns [2] - The civil aviation authority is actively working to mitigate "involution" in the industry, promoting fair competition and adherence to pricing laws [1] International Travel - The scope of visa-free policies has been expanded, with Russia and South Korea implementing measures that are expected to boost international travel [3] - As of early September 2025, international passenger flights have recovered to approximately 85.1% of 2019 levels, with specific routes to Russia and South Korea showing even higher recovery rates [3] Supply and Pricing - The civil aviation sector is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with supply and demand recovering to 117% and 116% of 2019 levels, respectively [4] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class is approximately 846 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [4] - Expectations for Q4 indicate that ticket prices may achieve year-on-year growth due to low base effects from the previous year [4] Cost and Profitability - OPEC+ has increased production, which is likely to lead to a decrease in oil prices, thus reducing airlines' fuel costs and potentially enhancing profitability [5] - The long-term outlook for the aviation industry suggests a tightening supply due to high aircraft retirement and leasing peaks, while demand is expected to grow steadily [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The report aims to systematically explain the design logic and usage method of the "Daily Chart" for ETFs from a multi - dimensional perspective to assist investors in asset allocation. The "Daily Chart" uses five indicators, namely "bottom consolidation - stage volume increase - theme catalysis - homogeneous comparison - liquidity optimization", to screen ETFs with potential return elasticity in the future. The screening framework focuses on "low - level consolidation, volume confirmation, theme catalysis, homogeneous de - duplication, and liquidity implementation" to form an operable, reviewable, and iterable ETF candidate list [1]. Summary by Directory 1 ETF Market Expansion Since the beginning of this year, the domestic ETF market has expanded in terms of product supply and trading demand. Different types of ETFs such as broad - based, industry, theme, bond, QDII, and commodity have been continuously refined. ETFs have become the optimal tool for obtaining index exposure during periods of rapid style rotation and frequent structural market conditions. They are more advantageous in asset allocation compared to individual stocks, better meeting the investment needs of trading and allocation funds [9]. 2 Screening Logic - **Low - level Consolidation**: Select ETFs with returns in the bottom 50% in the past month, excluding those affected by suspension and abnormal market conditions, to avoid chasing high and focus on ETFs with potential for valuation and popularity restoration [14]. - **Volume Confirmation**: After the initial screening, choose ETFs with a volume increase of at least 15% compared to ten trading days ago. Volume increase indicates a rise in participants and trading willingness, an improvement in risk preference and a shift in capital attention, as well as an improvement in trading order and liquidity [15]. - **Theme Catalysis**: In the context of theme rotation, use quantitative methods to select high - purity industry - theme ETFs. A penetration - based screening mechanism is set to require at least three of the top ten weighted stocks of candidate ETFs to belong to high - heat theme sectors, ensuring their high - purity tracking of theme markets [16]. - **Homogeneous Comparison**: In the same tracking index group, only retain the ETF with the highest trading volume on the day to reduce impact costs and execution uncertainties [17]. - **Liquidity Implementation**: Set a liquidity threshold, requiring the trading volume of ETFs to be no less than 100 million yuan to ensure their tradability and carrying capacity [18]. - **Final Result**: After the above screening, comprehensively evaluate the qualified samples based on multiple dimensions such as strength continuation, theme resonance, capital acceptance, and trading feasibility. Form a daily list of the top 20 ETFs with the greatest upward potential, which is automatically generated by existing models or processes [19]. 3 Multi - dimensional Perspective of ETF Daily Chart After the market closes, update the data based on the closing price and trading volume of the day. First, standardize the data of all market equity - based ETFs, then review the performance in the past month, the disclosure of the top ten weights, the intraday changes in trading volume and scale, and the consistency between the premium/discount and the tracking index. Apply the five screening criteria to the sample space to select 20 representative ETFs (if more than 20 meet the requirements). When viewing the "Daily Chart", start from the right. The redder the "One - month return" is, the smaller the subsequent upward space; the bluer it is, the greater the potential elasticity. Check the "Main capital net inflow ratio" to verify capital acceptance, ensure the "Trading volume" is above 100 million yuan, and avoid ETFs with large price increases and abnormal premium/discount expansion on the day. Only select the ETF with the highest trading volume in the same tracking index group [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year [2][4] - The improvement in C3 price spreads and the release of benefits from new projects contributed to the growth in H1 2025 [2][3] - The company is advancing new projects systematically, enhancing its integrated advantages in the C2 and C3 sectors, and focusing on high-value downstream applications [3][4] - The company is committed to technological innovation, with R&D expenditures of 773 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a R&D expense ratio of 3.29% [4][8] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 234.60 billion yuan and a net profit of 27.44 billion yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 8.61% [1][2] - The gross profit margin was 20.56%, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 1.11 percentage points to 11.69% [1][2] - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 111.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.05%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.72% [1][2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.35 billion yuan, 7.72 billion yuan, and 9.70 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.89 yuan, 2.29 yuan, and 2.88 yuan [9][11] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 10.87 for 2025, 8.95 for 2026, and 7.12 for 2027, indicating significant growth potential [9][11]