Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The market for both coking coal and coke is dominated by strong expectations, with their futures prices likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the near term, and investors should continue to monitor domestic and international policies [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the reference view is a volatile approach due to optimistic sentiment supporting a volatile rebound [1] - For coke 2509, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the reference view is a volatile approach as multiple factors lead to a volatile operation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - On July 16, the main coking coal contract closed at 897 points, down 1.48% intraday. The main contract's open interest was 562,000 lots, with a difference of + 24,254 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 911 yuan/ton [5] - Although the short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly and there is an expectation of marginal growth in supply in July, positive news such as the US delaying the tariff exemption period and domestic "anti - involution rectification" have improved market sentiment and driven up futures prices. Additionally, President Xi Jinping's remarks during an inspection in Shanxi have alleviated market bearish sentiment [5] Coke (J) - On July 16, the main coke contract closed at 1,494.5 yuan/ton, down 1.45% intraday. The main contract's open interest was 45,300 lots, with a difference of + 223 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and at Qingdao Port, it was 1,270 yuan/ton, up 3.25% from the previous week [7] - The improvement in the raw material atmosphere of coke has led to higher coking coal spot prices, increasing coking enterprises' losses and strengthening cost support, which has raised expectations of a price increase for coke. In the futures market, the supply and demand of coke have both declined, but strong expectations dominate the market. Since July, multiple positive news at home and abroad have led to a rebound of the main coke contract, and as prices rise, the market's long - short game intensifies [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗延续回落，但仍处于相对高位，且 钢厂盈利状况良好，需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑。同时，港口到货大幅回升，但矿商发运则是延续 偏弱态势，按船期推算后续到货仍将减量，海外矿石供应回落，而内矿生产同样趋弱，供应迎来收缩。 目前来看，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面弱稳运行，产业矛盾有限，但政策利好预期发酵，乐观情绪未 退，支撑矿价高位偏强运行，但估值已升至高位，需谨防交易逻辑切换至产业端。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | - ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡回调，不过全天呈现探底回升的走势。沪深京三市成交额 16350 亿元， 较上日放量 1541 亿元。目前股指反弹的主要逻辑是对下半年政策利好的预期，包括宏观需求托底预 期以及"反内卷"对相关行业利润率的提振。今年上半年 GDP 同比增速为 5.3%，整体上稳中有进， ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡运行 | 关税预期利好金价，美元反弹利 空金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美关税冲击后，铜价大幅下挫，关 注前期中枢支撑 | 说明： 参考观点：震荡运行 核心逻辑：昨天美国 6 月通胀小幅 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价震荡回落 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均有所走弱，建筑钢厂有所转产，螺纹产量环比下降，但依旧处于年内高位， 且品种吨钢利润较好，供应料难持续回落。同时，螺纹需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标均有所 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is oscillatory in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday. The short - term interest rate cut possibility is low, and in the short - term, Treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate and consolidate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term interest rate cut possibility is low [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. The central bank's net liquidity injection in the open - market operation eased the liquidity shortage, and the upward momentum of the 2 - year Treasury bond yield was insufficient. There are still problems of insufficient domestic effective demand and external disturbances, so a loose monetary environment is needed to support economic demand in the second half of the year [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗延续回落，但仍处于相对高位，且 钢厂盈利状况良好，需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑。同时，港口到货虽环比大增，但矿商发运则是延 续偏弱态势，按船期推算后续到货仍将回落 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - The crude oil market shows a weakening trend in the short - term and maintains a volatile pattern in the medium - term. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run weakly on Wednesday [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the overall short - term is in a volatile state [1] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term remains in a volatile pattern [1] - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East still exists, increasing the crude oil premium. After a previous significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted crude oil demand [5] - **Negative Factors**: Eight major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. However, as the negative impact of increased production is gradually digested and the original production - increase plan of oil - producing countries is gradually realized, the room for further production expansion in the future is limited [5] 3.3 Market Performance - On Tuesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a volatile and weak trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.73% to 505.6 yuan per barrel [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月环比产出压力较大。与 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is expected to continue in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, while the medium - term trend is expected to be volatile [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The excellent growth rate of US soybeans exceeded market expectations, causing the futures price to break below the 1000 - cent mark. However, strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. In the domestic market, the negative basis of soybean meal continues to widen, and the short - term supply expectation of soybean meal futures dominates the market. The futures are stronger than the spot, and the pattern of domestic strength and foreign weakness continues [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Lower - than - expected US soybean oil inventory supports the US soybean oil futures price. The domestic soybean oil market is mainly driven by the cost support of raw - material soybeans and the increased demand for bio - fuels, which boosts both domestic and foreign soybean oil futures prices [8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: The improving fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil boost the palm oil futures price, which also affects the domestic palm oil price. The domestic palm oil price follows the international market, but limited capital participation restricts the rebound space [9].