Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices showed weak performance today with little change in open interest. After the October FOMC meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a December rate cut, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on copper prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly on Thursday, and downstream market sentiment was cautious. After the China-US summit, the relaxation of mutual tariff policies may improve the macro environment. Continued attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly today. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the macro environment was weak, but aluminum prices were relatively resilient. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, providing support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - **Nickel**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel increased while prices declined today. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the macro environment was weak, and nickel prices continued to fall. The weakness in the industrial sector led investors to prefer short positions in nickel to hedge long positions in non-ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On October 30, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 192,200 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from Monday. Goldman Sachs believes that even considering a significant decline in global refined copper production, the copper market will experience a slight supply surplus in 2026, consistent with its forecast of a copper price of $10,500 per ton in 2026 [8]. - **Aluminum**: On October 30, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 605,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from Monday [8]. - **Nickel**: On October 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel ranged from 120,800 to 123,600 yuan per ton, with an average price of 122,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,450 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brands of electrowon nickel ranged from -200 to 100 yuan per ton [9]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar dropped from a high level, with a daily decline of 0.38%, an increase in trading volume, and stable open interest. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have limited improvement, the pressure of inventory reduction remains, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm market sentiment and the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil rose first and then fell, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and an increase in both trading volume and open interest. Currently, the supply of hot-rolled coil is relatively high, while there are concerns about demand, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and optimistic sentiment. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.38%, a decrease in trading volume, and an increase in open interest. Currently, the market sentiment is warm, and combined with the change in the variety logic, the futures price of iron ore has returned to a high level. However, the supply is relatively high, and the demand is weakening. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is not strong. Be cautious when bullish at high levels, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump in Busan on October 30, emphasizing the importance of stable China-US relations [6]. - From October 1 - 26, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.613 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7% and a 4% decrease from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 18.621 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 1.871 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a 5% decrease from the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 22.718 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 901,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 0% and an 8% decrease from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.771 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22% [7]. - On October 27, 2025, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Announcement No. 2025/100, maintaining the existing anti-dumping measures on Chinese wire rods [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,200 yuan, and the national average price was 3,265 yuan. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,330 yuan and 3,260 yuan respectively, and the national average price was 3,373 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 3,000 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 130 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,040 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 805 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 827 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.48 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.11 yuan. The SGX swap price was 105.95 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 108.40 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,106 yuan, with a decline of 0.38%. The trading volume was 1,440,978 lots, an increase of 201,376 lots, and the open interest was 1,894,916 lots, an increase of 909 lots [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,318 yuan, with a decline of 0.33%. The trading volume was 614,494 lots, an increase of 40,700 lots, and the open interest was 1,473,286 lots, an increase of 12,227 lots [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 802.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.38%. The trading volume was 325,873 lots, a decrease of 28,571 lots, and the open interest was 551,548 lots, an increase of 8,698 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report includes various charts related to steel and iron ore inventory, such as weekly changes in rebar and hot-rolled coil inventory, national 45-port iron ore inventory, and 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory [13][18]. - It also includes charts on steel mill production conditions, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][33]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 59,100 tons month-on-month, and the inventory is relatively high. The demand for rebar has improved, but it is still at a low level in recent years. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the inventory reduction pressure remains. Steel prices are still prone to pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [34]. - Hot-rolled coil: The supply-demand pattern has improved slightly, and the inventory has been reduced again. The weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 6,200 tons month-on-month, and the inventory is high. The demand performance is okay, but there are concerns about the demand. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are still prone to pressure. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [34]. - Iron ore: The supply-demand pattern continues to weaken. The terminal consumption of iron ore by steel mills continues to decline, and the demand is expected to continue to decrease. The supply of iron ore is at a high level. Although the futures price has returned to a high level, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is not strong. Be cautious when bullish at high levels, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [35].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 30 日） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡思路 | 乐观氛围主导，焦煤偏强运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 成本强支撑，焦炭震荡上行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", with a short - term "oscillation" view, medium - term "oscillation" view, and intraday "weak oscillation" view. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond market (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weak oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that although there is an expectation of moderately loose monetary policy in the medium and long term due to insufficient domestic effective demand, the strong resilience of macro - economic data and reduced necessity for year - end policy increments, along with rising risk appetite in the stock market, limit the short - term upward momentum of bond futures. In general, the bond futures will oscillate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the change in interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "weak oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The bond futures oscillated yesterday. Policy - level favorable expectations are rising, but due to strong macro - economic data and reduced necessity for policy increments, as well as rising stock - market risk appetite, the short - term upward momentum of bond futures is insufficient, and they will oscillate in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a decline. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish. The long - term outlook is strong, attributed to macro - economic easing, mine production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Movement: Last night, the gold price rebounded and once approached the $4050 mark. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the early morning, the gold price weakened again [3]. - Interest - Rate Decision: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. However, internal policy differences and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts indicate that future rate - cut paths will depend on economic data, and the market's expected probability of a December rate cut has decreased [3]. - Attention Points: In the short - term technically, focus on the long - short game at the $4000 mark, and on the news front, pay attention to the dynamics of the APEC meeting [3]. Copper - Price Movement: Yesterday, the copper price increased with rising positions and the night - session price reached the 89,000 mark. LME copper also broke through its high in the past five years. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the early morning, LME copper dropped significantly [4]. - Interest - Rate Decision: Similar to gold, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but internal policy differences and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts affected the market [4]. - Market Relationship: Since late October, as the gold price weakened, the copper price has been strong, and the gold - copper ratio has dropped significantly. Continuously monitor the long - short game at the $11,000 mark for LME copper [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - position advantage of asphalt futures 2601 contract has increased, and the adjustment pressure has weakened. The expansion of net long positions and more short - to - long operations than long - to - short operations indicate that the long - position is strengthening, and it is expected that the asphalt price will stabilize and strengthen after a short - term adjustment [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Market Performance of Asphalt Futures 2601 Contract**: Yesterday, the contract showed a pattern of increasing volume, decreasing positions, weakening in shock, and a slight decline. The price center dropped slightly to below 3275 yuan/ton, with the lowest reaching 3252 yuan/ton. The closing price fell 0.21% to 3274 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 1242 to 196026, a decline of 0.63% [2] - **Change in Positions of Top 20 Long and Short Seats**: The positions of the top 20 long and short seats showed a pattern of both long and short increasing. The long positions increased by 2924 to 143435, and the short positions increased by 2848 to 141415. The net long positions expanded to 2020 [2] - **Details of Long - Position Increase in Top 20 Long Seats**: Among the top 20 long seats, 8 increased long positions. 3 seats increased more than 500 long positions, including Guotai Junan Futures (3168), Huayuan Futures (1487), and Dongzheng Futures (841). 2 seats increased between 100 - 500 long positions, and the remaining 3 increased less than 100 [2] - **Details of Short - Position Increase in Top 20 Short Seats**: Among the top 20 short seats, 11 increased short positions. 4 seats increased more than 500 short positions, including Zheshang Futures (3272), Qiankun Futures (2457), Nanhua Futures (675), and Guolian Futures (1083). 5 seats increased between 100 - 500 short positions, and the remaining 2 increased less than 100 [3] - **Long - to - Short and Short - to - Long Operations**: Only 1 seat (Huatai Futures) carried out long - to - short operation, while 4 seats (Guotai Junan Futures, Dongzheng Futures, Galaxy Futures, Zhongtai Futures) carried out short - to - long operations [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, with the mid - term view being upward. The main driving force is the competition between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. There is also a possibility of technical correction in November [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the competition between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillation with a slight upward trend, the mid - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the stock market rebounded with increased trading volume yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points, indicating a rapid increase in investors' risk appetite. Policy benefits for the technology industry are expected to ferment, and external uncertainty risks are easing. However, there may be a technical correction in November. The future trend depends on the competition between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2512 are expected to run strongly, with short - term and intraday trends being oscillatory and mid - term trends being oscillatory and weakening [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.68% to 15,550 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5] - **Core Logic**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, and the China - US economic and trade talks sent positive signals. The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Seoul may convey positive expectations. The better - than - expected new car production and sales data in September supported the industrial factors and boosted the confidence of long - positions in the rubber market [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price rising 1.41% to 10,795 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [7] - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continues to increase. In 2025, the domestic butadiene production capacity is planned to increase by 980,000 tons, with the total capacity expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment is cautious. The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents may convey positive expectations [7]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2601 are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillating. Attention should be paid to the support level of the MA5 line, and the optimistic sentiment dominates the market, leading to the relatively strong operation of ore prices [1]. - Although the ore price is running at a high level, the fundamentals have not been substantially improved. The supply is relatively high and the demand is weakening, so the upward driving force is not strong. Caution should be exercised when bullish at high levels, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2]. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term trend is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The reference view is to pay attention to the support of the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the optimistic sentiment dominates and the ore price runs strongly [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much. Under the disturbance of production restrictions, steel mill production has weakened, and the demand from mines has continued to decline. The contradiction in the steel market has not been alleviated, and the expectation of weakening demand remains unchanged [2]. - Affected by weather factors, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has unexpectedly declined, but overseas ore shipments remain at a high level. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will return to a high level. Coupled with the stable production of domestic mines, the supply pressure of ore is relatively large [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of the agricultural products futures in the commodity market is weak, with most varieties showing a weak - oscillatory pattern. The market situation of each variety is affected by multiple factors, and the future market trend is uncertain, lacking a clear direction [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Bean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillatory and weak. The future trend will depend on Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by the expectation of China resuming soybean purchases from the US, the far - month US soybean contract rose to the $11 mark and then fell back. Before the market direction is determined by details of the Sino - US trade agreement, South American weather, and China's actual purchase rhythm, the market is in a game state. In the short term, the cost - driven logic of the bean meal market replaces the supply logic, and the bean meal futures price faces a risk of decline after approaching the upper limit of the oscillatory range [5]. 3.2. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillatory and weak. The future trend is affected by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The weakness in the oil market continues, with soybean oil being relatively resistant to decline. The spot price is also falling. The arrival volume of raw soybeans remains high, the oil mill start - up rate continues to increase, and the soybean oil inventory has reached 1.2503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.26%, hitting a new high in the same period in the past five years. On the demand side, catering consumption is weak and downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in a sluggish market. In the process of supply - demand re - balance, the pattern of strong meal and weak oil continues, and the soybean oil futures price will continue to oscillate weakly [7]. 3.3. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is weak, medium - term view is oscillatory, and intraday view is oscillatory and weak. The future trend is influenced by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The main pressure on the palm oil market comes from the expected 10% year - on - year increase in Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 to about 56 - 57 million tons, and the weak exports of Malaysian palm oil also drag down the international palm oil futures price. The domestic market is focused on the possible meetings between Chinese, US, and Canadian leaders during the APEC Summit. The palm oil futures price has fallen below the lower limit of the previous oscillatory range and will continue to be weak [8].