投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 基本面预期好转，焦煤震荡反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 930. ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The price of domestic thermal coal continued to rebound this week. The supply of medium and low calorific value coal at ports was tight, and its price trend was stronger. The destocking speed of thermal coal slightly slowed down, and the inventory at northern ports remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a good foundation for peak - summer coal consumption. The seasonal support for thermal coal strengthened, and the port coal prices rose across the board. It is expected that the coal price will maintain a strong trend in the short term [5] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **品种**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: This week, the price of domestic thermal coal continued to rebound. Due to the inverted shipping profit of medium and low calorific value coal at ports before, the supply at ports was tight, and its price trend was stronger. As of June 26, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 28.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 460,000 tons. The destocking speed slightly slowed down, and the inventory at northern ports remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a good foundation for peak - summer coal consumption. Overall, the seasonal support for thermal coal strengthened, and the port coal prices rose across the board, especially the low - calorific value coal. With the subsequent rise in temperature, it is expected that the coal price will maintain a strong trend in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are all generally positive, with an "oscillatingly strong" reference view for the short - term [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The growth of US soybean oil's bio - fuel demand continues to boost US soybean crushing consumption. However, good US crop weather and the expectation of a Brazilian harvest limit the upside of US soybean futures prices. The market focus will shift to the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. The trading logic of the soybean meal market revolves around import costs, and short - term soybean meal futures prices may rebound following US soybean futures prices [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil has seen a strong rebound. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil lead to a stronger expectation of a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory in June. The rising Malaysian palm oil prices support domestic palm oil futures prices. With continuous inflow of market funds, the short - term oscillatingly strong trend of palm oil futures prices is expected to continue [8]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [7]. - **Core Logic**: The influencing factors include US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 政策利好预期发酵，市场情绪偏暖，钢材期价延续震荡走高，而螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，建 筑钢厂生产积极，周产量持续增加，供应压力已升至高位。与此同时，螺纹需求平稳运行，投机需 求放量刺激下高频需求指标有所回升，但依旧是同期低位，且淡季改善空间存疑。总之，螺纹钢供 需两端均有所回升，基本面延续季节性弱势，淡季钢价易承压，相对利好则是库存低位，现实矛盾 不大，且近期政策利好发酵，市场情绪偏暖，支撑钢价短期偏强运行，关注政策兑现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 预期现实博弈，钢价震荡走高 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪未退，矿价偏强运行 | ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所走弱，钢厂临检增多，矿石终端消耗开始回落，但仍位于相对高位，给予矿 价支撑。同时，财年末冲量结束，矿商发运如期回落，而港口到货也环比减量，海外矿石供应迎来收 缩，相应的内矿生产相对积极，矿石供应有所收缩，关注后续降幅情况。目前来看，政策利好预期发 酵，乐观情绪未退，支撑矿价短期维持偏强运行态势，但矿石供需格局走弱，上行高度谨慎乐观，关 注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格， ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices soared, with the main contract approaching the 81,000 yuan mark. Today, prices oscillated downward. Macroscopically, the Middle - East situation eased, overseas risk appetite increased, and after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, domestic macro - expectations rose. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, and the black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Industrially, as copper prices rose, downstream buyers became more hesitant, and Mysteel's social inventory increased slightly on Thursday. With macro factors driving prices up and the contract breaking through 80,000 yuan on increased positions, it is expected to maintain a strong trend. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum oscillated below 20,700 yuan, and its open interest increased slightly. Macroscopically, both domestic and overseas atmospheres improved. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the market expected the elimination of backward production capacity, and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations. The black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Industrially, as the downstream entered the off - season and had price - aversion sentiment, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the June high [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel showed a strong oscillation, approaching the 122,000 yuan mark in the afternoon. Globally, the macro - environment improved, and nickel prices rebounded from the bottom. Domestically, the macro - situation also improved after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission. The black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, short - term strength in the ore end supported nickel prices, while long - term nickel element surplus limited its upside. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 122,000 yuan level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 3rd, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 129,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the 26th and an increase of 5,900 tons from the 30th. On the same day, Cailian Press reported that Goldman Sachs expected an upward risk for LME copper prices in August, with a predicted price of $10,050 per ton [8]. - **Aluminum**: On July 3rd, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 466,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the 30th and 6,000 tons from the 26th [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 3rd, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,880 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,080 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,330 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,680 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai copper monthly spread, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum monthly spread [22][24][26]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][37][39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 3 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 内卷整治提振，煤焦低位反弹 核心观点 焦炭：7 月 03 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1445.5 元/吨，日内录得 2.05%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.94 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 291 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1220 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1170 元/吨，周 环比上涨 2.63%。7 月 1 日，中央财经委会议提及要依法依规治理企业低 价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a strong and volatile trend, with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, limited real - world contradictions, and the recent fermentation of policy benefits. The positive market sentiment supports the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a volatile manner, with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the volume decreased while the open interest remained stable. At present, the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are mainly operating stably, and the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, the expectation of policy benefits has fermented again. Under the support of optimistic sentiment, the price of hot - rolled coil will maintain a strong operation trend in the short term. Be cautious about the switch of the trading logic to the industrial side [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore showed a strong operation, with a daily increase of 2.45%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience. Coupled with the positive market sentiment, the short - term price of iron ore will operate strongly. However, there are concerns about the demand for iron ore, and the supply is showing a stable trend. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited. Be cautiously optimistic about the upward height, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Guangzhou will implement the "commercial - to - public loan" policy to boost the real estate market. When the personal housing loan ratio of housing provident fund is lower than 75%, the commercial - to - public loan will be launched; when the loan ratio reaches 85% or above, preventive measures can be taken; when the loan ratio reaches 90% or above, it will be suspended [6]. - The Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers in June increased by 29% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month, and the cumulative wholesale sales from January to June were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [7]. - Australian mining company Fenix Resources officially launched the mining of the Beebyn - W11 iron ore project. The project has a designed annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons and is expected to achieve the first shipment of iron ore in the third quarter of 2025, which will increase the company's total iron ore production capacity to 4 million tons per year [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,120, 3,160, and 3,244 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,250, 3,140, and 3,252 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100. The volume - spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130, and the volume - spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 724, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 690, the sea freight from Australia was 7.04 and from Brazil was 18.93, the SGX swap (current month) was 95.25, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.10 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,076, with a daily increase of 1.45%, the highest price was 3,086, the lowest price was 3,050, the trading volume was 1,776,150, the volume difference was - 595,134, the open interest was 2,237,249, and the open - interest difference was 10,870 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,208, with a daily increase of 1.45%, the highest price was 3,217, the lowest price was 3,175, the trading volume was 694,556, the volume difference was - 225,872, the open interest was 1,595,284, and the open - interest difference was - 474 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 733.0, with a daily increase of 2.45%, the highest price was 736.5, the lowest price was 721.5, the trading volume was 452,146, the volume difference was 2,895, the open interest was 639,417, and the open - interest difference was - 8,458 [11]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel mill production conditions (including 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation) [13][18][28] Market Outlook - For rebar, both the supply and demand sides have increased. The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, limited real - world contradictions, and the recent fermentation of policy benefits. The positive market sentiment supports the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply and demand sides are operating stably. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, the expectation of policy benefits has fermented again. Under the support of optimistic sentiment, the price of hot - rolled coil will maintain a strong operation trend in the short term. Be cautious about the switch of the trading logic to the industrial side [38]. - For iron ore, the demand shows good resilience, and the short - term price will operate strongly. However, there are concerns about the demand, and the supply is showing a stable trend. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited. Be cautiously optimistic about the upward height, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [38].

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/01 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/30 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/27 | -181.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/26 | -183.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy shows mixed trends with stable GDP growth, some improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs, and varying performance in other economic indicators. The capital market is undergoing reforms to optimize mechanisms and protect investors. Different industries such as metals, energy, and agriculture face diverse market situations [1][2][15] - The bond market in China has a strong performance recently, while the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has some fluctuations. The stock market has sector - specific movements, with some traditional sectors showing strength and new开户 numbers increasing [21][26][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 had a 5.4% year - on - year growth, unchanged from the previous quarter but slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in June was 50.5%, also up from 50.3% in the previous month [1] - In May 2025, social financing scale increased, M0, M1, and M2 had different year - on - year growth rates, and financial institution RMB loans increased. CPI remained at - 0.1% year - on - year, while PPI decreased further to - 3.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment growth slowed, while social consumer goods retail grew [1] - In May 2025, exports had a 4.8% year - on - year growth, down from 8.1% in the previous month, and imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The CSRC will optimize capital market mechanisms, protect investors, and promote reforms. The DCE will list pure benzene futures and options on July 8, which will provide risk - management tools for the industry [2] - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, and the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September [2] 3.2.2 Metals - Chinese lithium - battery industry chains are expanding to Southeast Asia. New regulations on anti - money - laundering reporting for large - scale precious - metal cash transactions have little impact on ordinary consumers [3] - On July 2, international gold prices declined slightly. However, with expectations of a Fed rate cut and strong central - bank gold purchases, gold prices are expected to remain stable. Multiple institutions are bullish on gold prices in 2026 [3][4] - On July 1, LME aluminum, copper, and nickel inventories increased, while zinc, lead, tin inventories decreased [4] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On July 2, A - share steel and photovoltaic sectors had a rally due to the "anti - involution" campaign. Tangshan is likely to intensify environmental protection - related production restrictions [6] - Vale lowered its 2025 iron ore pellet production forecast. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota validity period from three to one year [6][7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC's crude - oil production reached a four - month high in June due to Saudi Arabia's push to regain market share, increasing downward pressure on oil prices [9] - The US EIA crude - oil inventory in the week ending June 27 was 3.845 million barrels, higher than expected. US weekly crude imports increased, while exports and domestic production decreased slightly [9][10] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On July 2, the central bank conducted 98.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan. In June, the central bank had net liquidity injections through various tools [14] 3.3.2 Key News - Many foreign institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth. The NDRC has allocated over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "two important" construction projects in 2025 [15] - The CSRC emphasizes capital - market reforms and risk prevention. The Ministry of Finance plans to issue and use special and special - purpose bonds earlier, and some super - long - term special bonds will be issued ahead of schedule in Q3 [15][16] - The "self - review and self - issuance" pilot for local government special bonds is progressing, and the issuance is expected to speed up in H2. The logistics industry index in June was 50.8%, up from the previous month [17] 3.3.3 Bond Market - China's bond market showed a strong performance, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market falling and bond - futures prices rising. The money - market rates mostly declined [21][23] - In the exchange - bond market, some bonds rose, while others fell. The convertible - bond market had mixed performance. Overseas, European and US bond yields generally increased [22][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1670 on July 2, down 52 points from the previous day. The US dollar index rose 0.14% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [26] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB internationalization has room for improvement in investment and official reserves, and suggests several development directions. CICC Fixed Income recommends paying attention to REITs' allocation opportunities [27] - Fitch Ratings believes that using special bonds to purchase existing commercial housing for affordable housing can strengthen the policy function of Chinese urban - investment enterprises [27] 3.4 Stock Market News - On July 2, A - share steel and photovoltaic sectors had a rally due to the "anti - involution" campaign. In June, A - share new accounts increased by 5.84% month - on - month, and the H1 total was 32.77% higher than in 2024 [29][30] - The Hong Kong market has been rising this year, with the Hang Seng Index up 20% in H1 and significant south - bound capital inflows. The IPO outlook in Hong Kong has been upgraded [31][32]