投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 148100 元/吨，较前日 上涨 15660 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 153470 元/吨，较前日下跌 1.23%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为 8170 点，正基差（现货升水），较前日 走弱 5670 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色午后企稳回升 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价触底回升，午后增仓上行明显，主力期价逼近 10.5 万关 口。从盘面来看，前期悲观情绪得到释放，午后白银打开跌停板， 市场氛围有所回暖，有色普涨。产业层面，随着前期铜价下挫至 10 万关口，产业补库意愿有所上升，给予铜价支撑，午后国内 200 万吨 冶炼项目已被叫停的消息一定程度上推动了铜价上行。技术上，铜 价再度上升至 1 月震荡区间上沿，可关注该位置压力。 沪铝 今日铝价偏强震荡， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in shock, and slightly closing up. The intraday price center shifted slightly up to 16,180 yuan/ton. At the close, the price slightly rose 0.25% to 16,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. After the short - term bearish sentiment was vented, Shanghai rubber futures stopped falling and stabilized. It is expected that the rubber price may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening downward, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,269 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,239 yuan/ton. At the close, it slightly closed down 1.83% to 2,247 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 32 yuan/ton. As the bearish atmosphere intensifies, methanol futures may maintain a weak - volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening downward, and significantly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 453.9 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 446.4 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price significantly closed down 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East weakens and the Fed's hawkish expectations strengthen, the crude oil premium has significantly retreated, and the short - term oil price has started to correct [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 1.23%. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons with a growth rate of 3.34%, and the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons with a growth rate of 0.82%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points. As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.22%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year. The domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 200 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 229,500 tons. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1, and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.628 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points. As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 18,190 contracts, and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. As of January 27, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,191 contracts, and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | - 280 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 433.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 449.4 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | - 16.4 yuan/barrel | - 1.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month spreads, inventory, capacity utilization rate, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][28][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 3, 2026, all stock indices fluctuated and rose. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.5656 trillion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan from the previous day. As gold and commodity prices stabilized, the resource cycle sector rebounded, and the risk appetite of the stock market recovered. This rebound was a technical correction of the previous over - decline caused by the weakening of risk appetite in the stock market due to the sharp correction in the commodity market. Currently, the trading volume in the stock market remains in a shrinking state, indicating that the upward driving force of the stock market is still weak. Due to the weakening of macro - economic indicators and the fact that the increase in this stock rebound is mainly contributed by the valuation side, the willingness of investors in the capital market to take profits has increased, and it is difficult for the capital side to form a consistent force in the short term. However, in the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, and the logic of the long - term upward movement of stock indices is relatively solid. In general, the risk appetite of the stock market is cautiously optimistic in the short term, and stock indices will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. For options, considering the relatively solid long - term upward logic of stock indices, a bull spread strategy can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On February 3, 2026, the 50ETF rose 0.91% to close at 3.108; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.39% to close at 4.664; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.25% to close at 4.864; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.18% to close at 4660.11; the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.93% to close at 8209.10; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 3.94% to close at 8.366; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 3.07% to close at 3.324; the GEM ETF rose 1.88% to close at 3.313; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.41% to close at 3.463; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.05% to close at 3034.58; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.31% to close at 1.55; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.22% to close at 1.50 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The report provides the volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options on February 3, 2026, and their values on the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 98.31 (previous day: 104.47), and the open interest PCR was 68.38 (previous day: 67.34) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The report presents the implied volatility of at - the - money options in February 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in February 2026 was 20.31%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 13.81% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts The report includes a series of charts for different types of options, such as the SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. These charts show the trends, volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms of the underlying assets of each option [9][18][21].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局不佳，钢矿承压走弱 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.51%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应高位平稳运行，而需求表现偏弱，基本面延续季节性弱势， 淡季钢价承压运行，相对利好的是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运 行，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.34%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均维持高位，基本面弱势运行，一旦需求走弱则产业 矛盾易激化，预计钢价承压偏弱震荡运行， ...

姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 焦煤：2 月 03 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1167.5 点，日内下跌 0.17%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 43.44 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+2532 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1190.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 4.0%。整体来看，焦煤基本面无明显变化，相对利好或有三方面：其一是 下游冬储仍在进行，对焦煤现货带来一定支撑；其二是春节临近，煤矿或 有提前停产放假的预期；其三是中东局势紧张，原油地缘溢价带动能源类 商品走强。不过，缺乏国内政策面和焦煤基本面支撑，焦煤期货依然缺乏 持续上涨的动能 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 供稳需弱，焦炭暂无产业驱动 （2026 年 2 月 3 日） 焦炭 1 月供应表现平稳。钢联数据显示，钢联全样本独立焦化企业产能利用率和焦炭日均产量 最新值分别为 71.86%、62.84 万吨，周环比虽有所下降但仍高于上月末值，整体呈现出低位回升态 势；而钢厂焦化厂生产则是稳中有升，最新日均产量为 47.01 万吨，刷新阶段性新高。目前两者合 计日均产量为 109.85 万吨，周环比微降 0.36 万吨，但较上月末值增 0.30 万吨，整体表现平稳。 与供应平稳运行不同，焦炭需求表现偏弱。新年伊始，钢厂曾有所复产，但因终端需求季节性 走弱，产业矛盾不断累积，提产动能受限，相关原料需求同样承压。截至 1 月 30 日当周，钢联 247 家钢厂高炉开工率和产能利用率分别为 79.00%、85.47%，低位回升但增幅不大，较上月末值分别微 增 0.06%、0.21%。相应的日均铁水产量最新值为 227.98 万吨，较上月末值微增 0.56 万吨，整体延续 去年四季度以来下行态势。 目前来看，钢市处于传统需求淡季，建筑工地施工基本停滞，而制造业工厂陆 ...

原油-SC 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原油 新官将上任 能化是福是祸？ 摘 要 2026 年 1 月 30 日，美国总统特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯 文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）为下一任美联储主席，这一人事变动打破 了全球金融市场对货币政策的惯性预期，国内能源化工商品期货市 场随之陷入"政策冲击与产业基本面"的剧烈博弈。作为兼具华尔 街投行经验与央行政策制定履历的鹰派代表，沃什的核心政策主张 ——"缩表与降息并行"，彻底重构了市场的流动性定价逻辑。 宝城期货研究所 在利空因素压制下，2 月 2 日（本周一），国内能源化工板块 迎来集体下挫的走势。其中，原油期货 2603 合约大幅下跌 7.02% 至 449 元 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周五夜盘黄金白银大跌，白银触及跌停板 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-02-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘风险降温，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 核心逻辑：近期海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是近期支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。同时国内港口甲醇库存去化，带动了港口 现货价格的修复，基差走强。这种现货 ...