投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA60 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局延续弱稳运行，建筑钢厂持续提产，螺纹产量延续回升，供应压力不断增加。 与此同时，螺纹需求延续季节性弱势，周度表现环比微增，而高频成交依旧低迷，且两者均是同期 低位，而下游行业未见好转，弱势需求格局未变。目前来看，螺纹供应回升，而需求延续弱势，基 本面表现偏弱，淡 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 市场情绪偏乐观，焦煤期货震荡 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均小幅回调。近期央行公开市场净回笼资金，加上股市风险偏好回升，国债 期货震荡调整。不过考虑到政策利率的锚定效应，国债期货下行空间较 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面未改善，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所走弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗有所减量，相对利好的是仍处年内高位， 给予矿价支撑。与此同时，港口到货虽有所回升，但矿商发运则是持续大幅减量，多因财年末结束， 相应的内矿生产弱稳，矿石供应迎来收缩，关注持续性情况。总之，乐观情绪发酵，矿价震荡走高， 但目前供需 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal futures prices has turned to a volatile state under the influence of weakened support from US soybeans and domestic supply pressure [6]. - The short - term trend of palm oil futures prices is volatile and strong, and the sustainability needs to be monitored [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trends**: Intraday view is volatile and weak, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and weak [6]. - **Core Logic**: Good weather in US soybean production areas has strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest, causing US soybean futures prices to run weakly. The domestic soybean market has abundant supply. Under the background of high operating rates of oil mills, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the提货 volume remains high [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trends**: Intraday view is volatile and strong, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and strong [9]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is concerned about whether this week's Malaysian palm report can fulfill the bullish expectation of inventory decline. The short - term supply and demand of Malaysian palm is tightening, and the international soybean - palm spread has turned in favor of palm oil exports. Driven by multiple positive expectations, market funds have actively entered the market, pushing palm oil futures prices to lead the rise in the oil and fat sector [9]. For Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [8]. - **Variety Strategy Factors**: For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operating rhythm, and stocking demand; for soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory; for palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 8 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡上行 核心观点 姓名：龙奥明 沪铝 今日沪铝偏强震荡。宏观层面，今日国内宏观氛围回暖，股市和 商品市场普涨。产业层面，下游进入淡季叠加畏高情绪，Mysteel 电 解铝社库去化放缓。技术上，期价在 6 月高点面临一定压力，下方关 注 20 日均线支撑。 沪镍 今日沪镍早盘跳水，主力期价日内在 12 万上方窄幅震荡。宏观层 面，今日国内宏观氛围回暖，股市和商品市场普涨，镍在有色板块中 表现疲软。基本面上，国内宏观回暖，不锈钢走强，下游需求或有所 改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.13%, with volume and open interest contracting. In the current situation, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level with few real - world contradictions. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.06%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, the expectation of policy benefits is fermenting. Under the game of long and short factors, the hot - rolled coil price continues to fluctuate at a high level. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.14%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, after the end of the "exemption period", the tariff disturbance reappears, and the market sentiment weakens. The iron ore price has fallen after fluctuating at a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable. In the short term, the iron ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Tariff announcement**: US President Trump announced on July 7, 2025, that the US will impose tariffs on products from Indonesia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Tunisia starting from August 1, 2025, with rates ranging from 25% to 36% [6]. - **Excavator sales**: In June 2025, 18,804 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to June 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [7]. - **Iron ore production of Ferrexpo**: Due to the Ukrainian government's suspension of the VAT refund policy, Ferrexpo's operating cash flow was under pressure in Q2 2025. The company reduced the pellet production line from two to one, resulting in a significant decline in iron ore production [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased by 2 yuan. The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of hot - rolled coil in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports increased by 1 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil changed slightly, and the SGX swap and the Platts Index decreased [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price was 3,063 yuan, a decline of 0.13%. The trading volume was 954,572 lots, a decrease of 271,730 lots, and the open interest was 2,168,547 lots, a decrease of 28,783 lots [11]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price was 3,191 yuan, a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume was 341,788 lots, a decrease of 148,639 lots, and the open interest was 1,593,691 lots, an increase of 8,136 lots [11]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price was 733.0 yuan, an increase of 0.14%. The trading volume was 233,496 lots, a decrease of 57,393 lots, and the open interest was 655,157 lots, an increase of 7,312 lots [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [13][14][16]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as the seasonal inventory of 45 ports [18][19][24]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][30][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has little change. Supply continues to rise to a high level this year, while demand remains weak in the off - season. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply and demand are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Policy benefits are expected, but the price may switch to the industrial logic. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [36]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the inventory has increased again. The terminal consumption of ore has declined slightly. The supply has shrunk. The ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [37].

豆类 | 日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 豆类 豆类油脂 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0411-84807266 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协 会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态 度，独立、客观地出具本报 告。本报告清晰准确地反映 了本人的研究观点。本人不 会因本报告中的具体推荐意 见或观点而直接或间接接收 到任何形式的报酬。 2025 年 7 月 8 日 豆类油脂 专业研究·创造价值 豆类震荡 棕榈油引领油脂反弹 核心观点 7 月 8 日，豆类震荡，油脂反弹。豆一期价止跌反弹，期价承压于 5 日均 线，资金变化不大；豆二期价止跌反弹，期价承压于 5 日均线压力，资金变 化不大；豆粕期价震荡偏弱，期价承压于 5 日均线，资金变化不大；菜粕期 价震荡偏弱，期价承压于 5 日和 10 日均线压力，资金变化不大。油脂期价震 荡偏强，豆油期价震荡偏强，期价暂获 5 日均线支撑，资金变化不大；棕榈 油期价涨幅超 2%，期价暂获 5 日和 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 8, the coke主力合约 was reported at 1,424.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.14%. The market logic has shifted from fundamental to expectation-based. The policy may have limited direct impact on coke. It is recommended to adopt a shock approach and monitor coking coal production and policy dynamics [5][33]. - On July 8, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 843.5 points, up 0.84% intraday. The fundamental situation of coking coal has not improved significantly, and the recent futures increase is driven by news. It is expected that the coking coal主力合约 will remain volatile [6][34]. Summary by Directory Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that the coal industry should be upgraded from low - end to high - end, and coal products should be transformed from primary fuels to high - value products. Wind, solar, and hydrogen energy should be developed to build a new energy system [8]. - On July 8, in an auction of coking coal by a major coal enterprise in Qipanjing, Inner Mongolia, the starting price of high - ash, low - sulfur fat coal was 760 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price was 790 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the July 1 transaction price [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Class Flat - Bed)| 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Class Outbound)| 1,210 yuan/ton | 3.42% | 4.31% | - 25.31% | - 39.20% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal)| 940 yuan/ton | 1.08% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 40.51% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - Produced)| 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.83% | 0.83% | - 18.12% | - 41.63% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced)| 1,280 yuan/ton | 2.40% | 2.40% | - 16.34% | - 38.16% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,424.5 | 0.14% | 1,437.0 | 1,410.0 | 16,389 | - 3,553 | 48,080 | - 18 | | Coking Coal | - | 843.5 | 0.84% | 849.5 | 829.0 | 723,095 | - 146,234 | 544,987 | - 4,404 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] Market Outlook - For coke, the market is a mix of strong expectations and weak reality. The futures are in a low - level shock adjustment. It is recommended to approach it with a shock mindset and pay attention to coking coal production and policy [5][33]. - For coking coal, the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the futures increase is news - driven. With the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, the market's long - short game will intensify, and the coking coal主力合约 is expected to remain volatile [6][34].

一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M1(货币):同比 | % | 2.30 | 1.50 | -0.8 ...