Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 15, 2026, including base spreads, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Base spreads for thermal coal on different dates from January 8 - 14, 2026 are - 104, - 102, - 101, - 100, - 100 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are all 0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Goods - Base spreads and ratios for energy goods like fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt on different dates are provided. For example, the base spread of INE crude oil on January 14, 2026 is 38.24 yuan/ton [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Goods - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 155 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - commodity spreads for chemicals such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. on different dates are presented. On January 14, 2026, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 1943 yuan/ton [9] - Base spreads for chemical goods on different dates are also provided [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 31 yuan/ton [19] - Inter - commodity spreads for black metals like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. on different dates are given. On January 14, 2026, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.85 [19] - Base spreads for black metals on different dates are presented [20] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic base spreads for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on different dates are provided. On January 14, 2026, the base spread of copper is - 140 yuan/ton [28] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals on January 14, 2026 are given. For copper, the LME spread is 44.29, and the import profit and loss is - 1365.31 yuan/ton [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Base spreads for agricultural products like soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. on different dates are provided. On January 14, 2026, the base spread of soybeans is - 243 yuan/ton [35] - Inter - period spreads for agricultural products are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans is - 4 yuan/ton [35] - Inter - commodity spreads for agricultural products such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on January 14, 2026 are given. The soybean/corn ratio is 1.90 [35] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Base spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates are provided. On January 14, 2026, the base spread of CSI 300 is 1.93 [46] - Inter - period spreads for stock index futures are presented. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of CSI 300 is 0.2 [48]

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。午后由于股市快速回调，国债避险需求上升，国债价格有所回 升。不过短期内市场并不恐慌，国债价格走势仍将回归自身基本面，短期内国债期货的上行与下行动 能均较为有限。一方面，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来政策面将保持偏宽松的货币信用环境， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a core logic of weakening geopolitical risks leading to a weak - oscillating trend [1] - The short - term and mid - term views of methanol are oscillating, while the intraday view is weak. The reference view is a weak operation. The weakening of geopolitical risks may cause domestic methanol futures to continue the weak trend on Thursday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Trend and View - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillating, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1] - The intraday view of methanol (MA) is weak, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is weak operation [5] Driving Logic - The strongest support for the recent upward movement of methanol prices is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply before the festival. Iran, as the main source of imports, is facing serious supply disruptions. At the same time, the inventory of methanol at domestic ports has decreased, driving the recovery of port spot prices and strengthening the basis. The firmness of the spot end has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market [5] - After the US President Trump signaled a possible suspension of strikes against Iran, geopolitical risks have weakened, and international crude oil futures prices have significantly corrected. Although domestic methanol futures maintained a relatively strong trend on Wednesday night, there is a lack of momentum for further upward movement [5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Gold is expected to show a long - term strong upward trend, with short - term shocks, medium - term strength, and intraday shocks tending to be strong. The reasons are the cooling macro - atmosphere, increased short - term hedging demand, and the resonance of short - term geopolitical risks, concerns about the Fed's independence, and long - term structural factors. The sharp rise in silver also drives gold up, and the decline in the gold - silver ratio will prompt arbitrage funds to flow into gold [1][3] - Copper is expected to have a long - term strong trend, with short - term shocks, medium - term strength, and intraday shocks tending to be weak. The cooling macro - atmosphere, increased willingness of short - term bulls to close positions, weakened short - term capital promotion willingness, and the resistance of the short - term spot market to high copper prices are the main reasons [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term: Shock [1] - Medium - term: Strong [1] - Intraday: Shock tending to be strong [1] - Reference view: Long - term strong upward [1] - Core logic: The rise in gold prices is due to the resonance of short - term geopolitical risks, concerns about the Fed's independence, and long - term structural factors. The sharp rise in silver drives gold, and the decline in the gold - silver ratio to around 50 (a 14 - year low) will attract arbitrage funds. Pay attention to the long - short game at the $4600 mark [3] Copper - Short - term: Shock [1] - Medium - term: Strong [1] - Intraday: Shock tending to be weak [1] - Reference view: Long - term strong [1] - Core logic: Copper prices showed a small upward and then downward trend last night, oscillating below 104,000. The increase of copper prices has slowed down this week, and short - term capital promotion willingness is insufficient. The obvious weakening of the 01 contract discount reflects the resistance of the short - term spot market to high copper prices. Pay attention to the technical pressure at the previous high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to operate weakly with a volatile trend in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weak performance intraday [1][5][7] Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall: weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex. Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weakly volatile trend on Wednesday night and are expected to continue this way on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall: weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight supply of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to reduced production or shutdown of some devices, decreasing the supply expectation. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Crude oil futures maintain a strongly volatile pattern, strengthening the cost support. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, the rebound momentum of domestic synthetic rubber futures weakened on Wednesday night and is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report expects the stock index to operate in a volatile and moderately strong manner in the short term. The short - term view is that the market sentiment remains optimistic due to the continuous increase in trading volume, and the short - term correction will not change the moderately strong trend of the stock index, though intraday fluctuations may intensify. In the medium and long term, with the continuous fermentation of positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market, the logic of the upward movement of the stock index is relatively solid [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", the intraday view is "moderately strong", and the overall view is "volatile and moderately strong". The core logic is the unchanged positive policy expectations and the trend of capital net inflow [1]. 2. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "moderately strong", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the reference view is "volatile and moderately strong". Yesterday, all stock indexes rose and then fell, with the whole - market trading volume reaching 398.68 billion yuan, an increase of 28.8 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The regulatory authorities raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, showing a clear intention to reduce leverage and control risks. Due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks this year and the weak expectation of performance repair, the market risk preference declined in the afternoon yesterday, leading to a high - level correction of the stock index. However, the continuous increase in trading volume indicates that market sentiment remains optimistic [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall situation of the beans and oils market in the short - term is weak, with the prices of various varieties showing a trend of weak shocks. The beans market is under the pressure of weak reality and policy uncertainty, lacking upward driving forces. The palm oil market also lacks a one - sided driving force and continues to fluctuate [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating weakly; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The export prospects of US soybeans are weak, and the crop weather in Brazil is ideal. The USDA report is neutral to bearish, putting pressure on US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is at a high level in the same period, restricting the rise of spot prices. The rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to policy - related factors. Overall, the beans market is under continuous pressure of weak reality, and there is policy uncertainty, lacking upward driving forces [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating weakly; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Indonesia confirmed that it will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026, maintaining B40, which weakens the previous market expectations and causes the price to correct from the high level, but the decline is limited. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil to 12.5% starting from March next year, which may support the export of Malaysian palm oil. The market's focus has shifted to the US biodiesel policy. In the short - term, palm oil lacks a one - sided driving force and continues to fluctuate [7]. 3.3 Other Varieties - **Soybean Oil 2605**: Short - term, medium - term and intraday views are all oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include the cost support of US soybeans, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2605**: Short - term, medium - term and intraday views are all oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The demand has a phased decline, and the port coal price has stabilized again. The overall supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the price has stopped falling and risen slightly [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillation" [1] 3.2 Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, the domestic thermal coal price maintained a slight upward trend. After the new year, the coal mines that had stopped production to meet the annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in production was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply has increased. The recent drop in domestic temperatures has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities, which is an important factor supporting the port coal market [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of January 8, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 支撑 | 基本面未好转，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indices reached high points and then declined, with the market oscillating throughout the day. The total market trading volume was 398.68 billion yuan, an increase of 28.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The regulators' policy intention to reduce leverage and control risks is clear. Coupled with the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks this year and the weak expectation of performance recovery, the market's risk appetite declined in the afternoon, leading to a high - level correction of the stock indices. However, considering the continuous expansion of trading volume, the market sentiment remains optimistic. The short - term correction will not change the strong trend of the stock indices, but the intraday volatility may intensify. With the continuous fermentation of positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market, the logic of the medium - to - long - term upward movement of the stock indices is relatively solid. It is expected that the stock indices will oscillate strongly in the short term. For options, a bull - spread strategy can be adopted due to the reliable medium - to - long - term upward logic of the stock indices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - On January 14, 2026, the 50ETF dropped 0.84% to close at 3.187; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) dropped 0.61% to close at 4.866; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) dropped 0.54% to close at 4.945; the CSI 300 Index dropped 0.40% to close at 4741.93; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.66% to close at 8257.17; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.71% to close at 8.365; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.95% to close at 3.302; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.79% to close at 3.332; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.11% to close at 3.516; the SSE 50 Index dropped 0.67% to close at 3112.07; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 1.94% to close at 1.58; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 2.07% to close at 1.53 [6] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF option was 76.63 (previous day: 56.98), and the position PCR was 92.61 (previous day: 97.67) [7] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the SSE 50ETF option in January 2026 was 15.73%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 11.84% [8] 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Option**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [10][12][14][16][18] - **SSE 300ETF Option**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [21][23][28][32] - **SZSE 300ETF Option**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [24][26][28][32] - **CSI 300 Index Option**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [36][38][41][47] - **CSI 1000 Index Option**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [39][45][41][47] - **SSE 500ETF Option**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [52][58][54][60] - **SZSE 500ETF Option**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [65][71][67][73] - **ChiNext ETF Option**: Charts cover the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [78][88][80][84] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Option**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [89][95][91][97] - **SSE 50 Index Option**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [102][108][104][110] - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Charts cover the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [115][124][117][121] - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Charts involve the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [125][131][127][137]