Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that they will maintain a range - bound trend, with the intraday view being oscillating strongly and the medium - term view being upward. The core logic is that policy - side favorable expectations provide strong support, and although there are external uncertainties and weak domestic demand, the domestic macro has strong resilience and the bottom - support for the stock index is strong [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2506 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that policy - side favorable expectations form strong support [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound. Yesterday, each stock index rebounded slightly in an oscillating manner. The total stock market trading volume was 1163.8 billion yuan, an increase of 400 million yuan from the previous day. The tariff policy of Trump has changed, but under the "TACO" expected logic, the market sentiment is not panicked. The domestic macro shows strong resilience, and the manufacturing PMI in May rebounded month - on - month, so the bottom - support for the stock index is strong. The upward and downward spaces of the current stock index are both limited. The policy side has a strong supporting effect on stabilizing the stock market, while external uncertainties and weak domestic demand inhibit the upward momentum of the stock index from the aspects of risk preference and profit expectation respectively. It is expected that the stock index will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 will continue to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Wednesday [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Trends and Views - In the short - term (within a week), the crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to a month), it will also be volatile; and intraday, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with an overall view of a slightly stronger operation [1] Core Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the production increase rhythm, with an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. It is speculated that the remaining voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day may be completely cancelled by the end of October. Due to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and increased geopolitical risks, international crude oil futures prices have risen slightly [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行，矿价低位震荡 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，矿石终端消耗高位回落，且钢市淡季来临，钢厂生产趋弱，需求维持 弱势运行，相对利好则是短期降幅不大。与此同时，港口到货和海外矿商发运均回升，且财年末存冲 量预期，海外矿石供应维持高位，即便内矿临检引发产量下降，供应压力维持高位。总之，供强需弱 局面铁矿 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着大豆生长步入对天气高度敏感的时间段，美豆期价仍将受到天气题材和贸易风险的双重影 响，易涨难跌走势维持。国内市场供应改善预期正在逐渐兑现，油厂开工率快速攀升，豆粕负基差有所扩 大。短期豆粕期价跟随美豆波动，维持反弹判断，反弹空间受到供应压制。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略参考 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：棕榈油和菜籽油呈现此消彼长的格局。随着印度下调 CPO 进口关税，马棕累库节 ...

Report on Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is a volatile rebound. In the short - term and medium - term, they are expected to be volatile, and the intraday view is slightly bullish. The core logic is that the uncertainty of tariff prospects deepens, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, and the current market interest rate implies that the expectation of interest rate cuts is basically zero, giving Treasury bond futures upward momentum. However, the policy effect needs verification, the probability of short - term interest rate cuts decreases, and there is pressure on the supply side of Treasury bonds, causing short - term pressure on Treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of Treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly bullish, and the overall view is a volatile rebound. The core logic is the rising tariff risk and the increasing risk - aversion sentiment [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is a volatile rebound. The current Treasury bond futures are in a stage where both the upward and downward spaces are limited. The upward momentum comes from the uncertain tariff prospects, the moderately loose monetary policy, and the near - zero expectation of interest rate cuts in the market. The short - term pressure comes from the need to verify policy effects, the reduced probability of short - term interest rate cuts, and the supply - side pressure of Treasury bonds [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reference view for thermal coal is to oscillate. As the peak season approaches, positive factors for thermal coal are accumulating, but the market is in a stalemate and prices are temporarily stable. The long - term supply - demand pattern of thermal coal remains loose, and there is a high possibility that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Main Variety Price Quotes Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Core Logic**: With the approaching of the peak season, positive factors for thermal coal are accumulating. On one hand, domestic coal prices are at a low level internationally, leading to a significant decline in the cost - effectiveness of imported coal compared to 2024, resulting in a decrease in imports. On the other hand, as June arrives, China will enter the critical period of peak - summer power consumption, and terminal power plants still have a certain demand for inventory replenishment during the peak season, which slightly supports market sentiment. However, the overall long - term supply - demand pattern of thermal coal remains loose, and current port inventories are at a five - year high, so there is a high possibility that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空博弈，焦煤阶段性调整 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 上下游压力仍存，焦炭期货低位 运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：下跌 参考观点：偏弱运行 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is to be cautious due to geopolitical and trade policy changes, with prices showing a volatile pattern. The recommendation is to take a wait - and - see approach [1][3] - For nickel, the short - term view is that it is expected to be strong, with the price showing a bottom - up trend and is predicted to run strongly in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of Shanghai gold dropped from 790 yuan/gram to 780 yuan/gram, and New York gold fell below 3400 US dollars. The price opened high and went low [3] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks escalated during the Dragon Boat Festival (including intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict and tense Middle - East situation), and US trade policies became more aggressive (Trump announced to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4). However, the market's sensitivity to US tariff policies may have decreased, and there is a large long - short divergence in the market. Technically, the price is approaching the high of the medium - term downward track, with strong pressure and high willingness for long - position holders to close their positions [3] - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the daily view is volatile and weak. The recommended view is to wait and see [1][3] Nickel - **Price Movement**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the nickel price opened high and went low during the day and strengthened at night, with the main contract price oscillating between 121,000 - 122,000 yuan [5] - **Core Logic**: Before the festival, the nickel price dropped significantly due to rumors of an increase in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, but the rumors did not impact the Indonesian nickel ore price. Technically, the short - term price bottomed out and rebounded, and the technical support at the 120,000 - yuan mark is still effective. When non - ferrous metals generally fell yesterday, nickel was relatively strong, and it strengthened along with other non - ferrous metals at night [5] - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term view is volatile, and the daily view is upward. The recommended view is to be bullish in the short term [1][5]

宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 预期现实博弈，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面表现平稳，周产量有所减量但仍是年内相对高位，供应端变化不大；同时周度表 需小幅回升，而高频成交维持低位，需求端延续平稳运行，但仍是近年来同期低位，且季节性走弱 预期易发酵，继续拖累螺纹基本面，相对利好则是库存低位，现实端尚可，预期现实博弈下预计钢 价延续震 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 202505 ...