投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局迎变化，矿价上行趋弱 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂复产带来矿石终端消耗回升，且假期补库预期发酵，需求表现尚 可，继续给予矿价支撑，但下游矛盾未缓解，需求韧性趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但海 外矿商发运环比大增且创下年内单周新高，海外矿石供应回升显著，按船期推算后续澳巴矿到货将触 底回升，叠加内矿供应恢复，矿石供应在增加。目前来看，得 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On September 16, the coke main contract closed at 1,735 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 4.24%. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke decreased by 3.29% week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port increased by 2.88% week - on - week. Against the backdrop of domestic "anti - involution" rectification, coke futures are prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the main contract is running strongly. Attention should be paid to whether there are specific measures for anti - involution in the coal industry [5][35]. - On September 16, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,240.5 points, with an intraday increase of 5.84%. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port remained flat week - on - week. The market's anti - involution sentiment is rising again, and there are continuous positive disturbances to coking coal supply. However, there are currently no specific policy measures in the coal industry, and attention should be paid to subsequent policies [6][36]. Summary by Directory Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to rectify the disorderly competition among enterprises, including strengthening capacity governance in key industries, improving the price governance mechanism, and strengthening industry self - discipline [8]. - On September 16, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market was strong. Affected by market sentiment and price increases of similar coal types in the surrounding area, the quotation of low - sulfur primary coking coal from some local coal enterprises increased by 80 - 90 yuan/ton, but there were no transactions yet [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke had a latest quoted price of 1,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.29%. Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke had an ex - warehouse price of 1,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.88%. The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,140 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week [5][6][13]. Futures Market - The coke main contract closed at 1,735 yuan/ton on September 16, with an intraday increase of 4.24%, a trading volume of 33,386, a volume difference of - 4,644, a position of 47,068, and a position difference of - 407 [14]. - The coking coal main contract closed at 1,240.5 points on September 16, with an intraday increase of 5.84%, a trading volume of 1,466,367, a volume difference of 224,082, a position of 763,605, and a position difference of 33,564 [14]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port total inventory, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other charts such as domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement, coal washery production, and coking plant operation [15][22][27]. Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is similar to the core viewpoints. In the context of "anti - involution" rectification, coke and coking coal futures are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but attention should be paid to the introduction of specific policies in the coal industry [35][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices maintained a volatile consolidation trend. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2.367 trillion yuan, an increase of 63.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [4]. - The credit data in August showed weakness, the consumption growth rate slowed down, and the inflation data remained weak, indicating weak demand from the real - sector. There is a strong expectation for the introduction of policies to stabilize demand in the future, and the critical window period for policy introduction is expected to be in October [4]. - In terms of capital, incremental funds have been continuously flowing into the stock market. The non - bank deposits increased significantly in July and August, and the margin trading balance remained at a high level, indicating that the stock market has continuously attracted incremental funds. However, due to the significant increase in the valuations of some stocks in the early stage, there is still a willingness among profit - taking funds to take profits, which also leads to short - term technical adjustment pressure on the stock indices. In the future, focus on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [4]. - In general, the stock indices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options is in the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 16, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.48% to close at 3.082; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.19% to close at 4.620; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.23% to close at 4.765; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.21% to close at 4523.34; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92% to close at 7483.63; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.77% to close at 7.282; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.73% to close at 2.907; the GEM ETF rose 0.72% to close at 3.059; the Shenzhen 100ETF remained unchanged at 3.450; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.50% to close at 2947.82; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.21% to close at 1.43; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.23% to close at 1.39 [7]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on September 16, 2025, and their changes compared to the previous trading day are provided, including those of 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [8]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options in September or October 2025 are provided, including those of 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [9][10]. 3.2 Related Charts - For each type of option (such as 50ETF options, 300ETF options, etc.), relevant charts are provided, including the underlying asset's trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different terms [11][22][35][38][51][66][79][93][106][119][134][141].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a volatile consolidation. Today, they fluctuated and slightly rebounded. The recently released credit data was weak, and the marginal growth rate of consumption slowed down, leading to an increased market expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the medium and long term. However, currently, the treasury bond futures are mainly affected by the expectation of monetary policy and the risk appetite of the stock market. Since there is no high necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, the upward space for treasury bond futures is limited. Additionally, the risk appetite in the stock market is at a high level, and the capital side suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. The year-on-year increase in non-bank deposit data in July and August indicates the manifestation of the stock-bond seesaw effect. Overall, the treasury bond futures will mainly experience low-level volatile consolidation in the short term. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On September 16th, the People's Bank of China conducted 287 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tendering, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before. There were 247 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. Based on this calculation, the net investment for the day was 40 billion yuan. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties of Baocheng Futures on September 16, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of power coal from September 9 to September 15, 2025. The basis on September 15 was - 115.4 yuan/ton, while the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Data on the basis, ratio, and other indicators of energy commodities such as fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from September 9 to September 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 15 was 99.61 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1408 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - The basis, spread, and cross - variety spread data of chemical commodities such as rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 15 was - 995 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 15 was 2304 yuan/ton [9][10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Cross - period and cross - variety spread data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the 5 - 1 cross - period spread of rebar was 65.0 yuan/ton, and the screw/ore ratio on September 15 was 3.92 [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 9 to September 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on September 15 was 10 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals on September 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (61.93), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.02 [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - The basis, cross - period, and cross - variety spread data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans on September 15 was 121 yuan/ton, and the soybean/corn ratio on September 15 was 1.81 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - The basis and cross - period spread data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 9 to September 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 15 was 5.26, and the next - month - to - current - month spread was - 9.2 [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly. Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are likely to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Shanghai Rubber (RU)** - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Overall view: run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. Meanwhile, the supply recovery expectation in the rubber market is increasing as the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak tapping season and the impact of various factors on supply has been digested. On Monday, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed up 0.79% to 15,995 yuan/ton [5]. **Synthetic Rubber (BR)** - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Overall view: run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. Although the domestic auto market production and sales in August were better than expected, the positive factors were overdrawn. On Monday, the 2511 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed up 0.86% to 11,690 yuan/ton [7].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in the previous quarter but up from 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% last year; the Non-Manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in August 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 25668.00 billion yuan and last year at 30323.00 billion yuan [1] - In August 2025, M0 grew 11.7% year-on-year, down from 11.8% in the previous month and 12.2% last year; M1 grew 6.0%, up from 5.6% in the previous month and -3.0% last year; M2 grew 8.8%, the same as the previous month and up from 6.3% last year [1] - New RMB loans in August 2025 were 5900.00 billion yuan, up from -500.00 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 9000.00 billion yuan last year [1] - CPI in August 2025 decreased 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.0% in the previous month and 0.6% last year; PPI decreased 2.9%, up from -3.6% in the previous month but down from -1.8% last year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to August 2025 grew 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% in the previous period and 3.4% last year [1] - Total retail sales of consumer goods from January to August 2025 grew 4.64% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous period but up from 3.4% last year [1] - In August 2025, export value grew 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in the previous month and 8.6% last year; import value grew 1.3%, down from 4.1% in the previous month but up from 0.03% last year [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From September 14 - 15, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues like TikTok and reducing investment barriers [2][15][16] - The "Xiamen Initiative for Global Supply Chain Development and Stability" was released, aiming to maintain the multilateral trading system [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the maximum order volume for option trading from September 17 [2] - In the first eight months of 2025, China's trade with ASEAN grew 9.7% year-on-year, with ASEAN remaining China's largest trading partner [2][3] - China's Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation on US analog chips, and the State Administration for Market Regulation announced an investigation on NVIDIA [3] - In August 2025, China's industrial added value grew 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month; the service production index grew 5.6% year-on-year; total retail sales of consumer goods grew 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month. From January to August, fixed asset investment grew 0.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing 5.1% and real estate development investment falling 12.9% [3][16] - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, and analysts expect the Fed to start a new round of rate cuts in September [4][19] Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose. Gold hit a new high, with London spot gold rising nearly $40 and COMEX gold rising nearly 1% [5] - India's gold imports in August were $5.14 billion, and oil imports were $13.2 billion [5] - Thailand's central bank met with gold traders after the baht's appreciation, planning to take measures to reduce the impact of gold trading on the baht [5] - Thailand is considering taxing physical gold transactions to slow the baht's appreciation [5] - On September 12, lead, copper, zinc, and nickel inventories decreased, while tin inventory increased, and aluminum and cobalt inventories remained stable [6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - A second round of coke price cuts is coming, with prices in Tangshan and Xingtai set to be reduced [8] - In August 2025, China's raw coal production decreased 3.2% year-on-year, crude oil production grew 2.4%, and natural gas production grew 5.9% [8] - In August 2025, China's crude steel production decreased 0.7% year-on-year, pig iron production grew 1.0%, and steel production grew 9.7% [8] Energy and Chemicals - Fujian plans to accelerate the construction of offshore wind power projects [9] - The US wants the G7 and NATO to impose 50% - 100% tariffs on China for buying Russian oil, which China firmly opposes [9][10] - HSBC predicts a large oil surplus from Q4 2025 (1.7 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026) [10] - If Western inventories increase, the expected price of Brent crude at $65 per barrel in 2026 may face downward pressure [10] - Woodside Energy's CEO expects LNG demand to grow 50% in the next decade [11] Agricultural Products - Market regulators are soliciting public opinions on regulations for the road bulk transportation of key liquid foods [12] - Arabica coffee beans reached $4 per pound for the first time since April [13] Group 3: Financial News Open Market - On September 15, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 6 - month买断式逆回购 and 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase. After deducting the maturing amount, the net investment was 88.5 billion yuan [14] Important News - An important article by Xi Jinping on building a unified national market was published, emphasizing the need to address low - price competition [15] - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues like TikTok and reducing investment barriers [2][15][16] - China opposes politicizing the TikTok issue and will safeguard national and corporate interests [16] - China's economic data for August 2025 showed stable growth in industry, services, and consumption, with fixed asset investment growing 0.5% from January to August [3][16] - The National Bureau of Statistics said the economy was generally stable in August but faced external challenges [17] - In August 2025, the prices of new commercial housing in first - tier cities decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, with Shanghai showing an increase [17] - The "2025 China's Top 500 Enterprises" list was released, with manufacturing and service enterprises' revenue accounting for 40.48% and 40.29% respectively [17] - Rules for public bond - type fund applications have changed, with new requirements for registration time and the number of pending products [18] - The Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau updated the "Trust Company Management Measures" [18] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange introduced policies to facilitate cross - border investment and financing [18] - Many private banks issued large - denomination certificates of deposit with attractive interest rates, but they were often quickly sold out [19] - Some Hong Kong - listed companies issued zero - coupon convertible bonds [19] - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates, and the market expects a rate cut in September due to rising unemployment [4][19] - Several companies had major events such as asset restructuring and equity transfers [20] - Some companies received overseas credit ratings [20] Bond Market - After China's economic data in August, the yield of long - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose slightly at the end of the session, while Treasury bond futures closed up [21] - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose and some fell, with the Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index and High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index rising [21] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.72%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.81% [22] - Money market rates showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [22][23] - The yields of European and US government bonds fell across the board [24] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1228, down 4 points from the previous day, and the central parity rate was 7.1056, down 37 points [25] - The US dollar index fell 0.26%, and most non - US currencies rose [25] Research Reports - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that the credit bond market is favorable in September, and a short - duration strategy is recommended [27] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the bond market may stabilize in the short term but may face upward pressure on yields in the medium term [27] - Shenwan Fixed Income thinks the current bond market risk comes from the redemption pressure of fixed - income products, and it is in a risk - releasing stage [27] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that new regulations may reshape the bond market, and the bond market may take a break in the short term [28] - Hongze Fixed Income believes that quasi - fixed - income products will play a key role in the rising asset yield environment [28] Group 4: Stock Market - On Monday, the A - share market showed a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.51%. The trading volume was 2.3 trillion yuan [31] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.22%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.91%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.21%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$14.473 billion [31] Group 5: Bond Information for September 16 - 227 bonds will be listed [30] - 179 bonds will be issued [30] - 88 bonds will have payments [30] - 142 bonds will have principal and interest payments [30]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly. In the short - term (within a week), medium - term (two weeks to a month), and intraday, the crude oil 2511 contract shows an overall trend of shock, with an intraday bias towards strength. The main reason is the enhanced geopolitical risks and the improvement of macro - sentiment [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract closed slightly up 1.31% to 494.9 yuan/barrel on the night session of Monday, and it is expected to maintain a shock - biased - strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - Recently, Ukrainian drones attacked an important crude oil export hub in the Russian Baltic Sea. The port loads about 330,000 barrels of diesel - type fuel and 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day. Coupled with the positive progress of the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the macro - sentiment has improved, leading to a slight rebound in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on the night session of Monday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic arrivals at 47 ports stood at 23.923 million tons, down 1.806 million tons week - on - week, continuing the downward trend. The largest decrease was in Australian ore, down 1.683 million tons week - on - week, and Brazilian ore also dropped by 0.911 million tons. Non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore rebounded from a low, up 0.788 million tons week - on - week [2]. - Overseas ore shipments rebounded significantly. The total ore shipments from 19 global ports reached 35.731 million tons, up 8.1691 million tons week - on - week, hitting a new high for the year. Shipments from the four major miners all increased, with a combined week - on - week increase of 4.9694 million tons. By region, Australian, Brazilian, and other ores increased by 2.6223 million tons, 3.8599 million tons, and 1.6869 million tons respectively, and most have reached their annual highs [2]. - Based on shipping schedules, the arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ore at domestic ports have bottomed out and rebounded, and overseas ore supply has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Ore Arrivals and Shipments Data - **Arrival Data**: The arrivals at the six northern ports were 12.45 million tons, down 0.75 million tons (-5.68%) week - on - week, 0.559 million tons (-4.30%) month - on - month, and up 1.143 million tons (10.11%) year - on - year. The arrivals at 45 national ports were 23.623 million tons, down 0.857 million tons (-3.50%) week - on - week, 1.637 million tons (-6.48%) month - on - month, and up 2.069 million tons (9.60%) year - on - year. The arrivals at 47 national ports were 23.923 million tons, down 1.806 million tons (-7.02%) week - on - week, 2.527 million tons (-9.55%) month - on - month, and up 1.968 million tons (8.96%) year - on - year [3]. - **Shipment Data**: Australian shipments (original caliber) were 18.369 million tons, up 2.751 million tons (17.61%) week - on - week, 1.96 million tons (11.94%) month - on - month, and down 0.417 million tons (-2.22%) year - on - year. Brazilian shipments (original caliber) were 7.906 million tons, up 3.578 million tons (82.67%) week - on - week, down 1.835 million tons (-18.84%) month - on - month, and down 0.052 million tons (-0.65%) year - on - year. The total shipments from 19 global ports were 35.731 million tons, up 8.1691 million tons (29.64%) week - on - week, up 0.1633 million tons (0.46%) month - on - month, and up 3.3642 million tons (10.39%) year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Related Charts - The report includes charts on domestic port arrivals, global iron ore shipments, shipments from the four major miners, and estimated domestic arrivals of iron ore [4][7][9][11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively. The core reason is the rebound in coal prices [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Movement and Judgment Criteria - For varieties with night - trading sessions, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory - bearish, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillatory - bullish, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise [3] - The oscillatory - bullish/oscillatory - bearish judgment only applies to the intraday view, not for short - term and medium - term views [4] Methanol Market Analysis - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventories have increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure has led to a downward shift in the price center [5] - Driven by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices and the improvement of macro - sentiment, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract rebounded on the night - trading session of Monday this week, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.80% to 2,405 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Tuesday [5]