Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 30, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated and rose. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2197.2 billion yuan, an increase of 19.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI continued to recover in September, indicating strong resilience in the domestic macro - economy. Coupled with the expectation of policy benefits from the important meeting in October, market risk appetite continued to rise. However, in the short term, due to the significant increase in the stock valuation, especially when the index rebounded near the previous high, there was still a need for profit - taking by profitable funds. It was necessary to pay attention to the game between the subsequent profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, since the index was approaching the previous high, the stock index was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock index, one could continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1 Option Indicators - On September 30, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.55% to close at 3.126; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.27% to close at 4.741; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.31% to close at 4.895; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.45% to close at 4640.69; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.03% to close at 7574.96; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.76% to close at 7.519; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.74% to close at 3.002; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.12% to close at 3.217; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.19% to close at 3.615; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53% to close at 2988.94; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.75% to close at 1.57; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.79% to close at 1.54 [5] - The report also provided the volume PCR and open - interest PCR data for various options on September 30, 2025, and compared them with the previous trading day [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets were presented for different options [7][8] 2 Related Charts - The report included charts related to the trends, option volatilities, volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatilities of different terms for various options such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, Shenzhen 300ETF option, CSI 300 Index option, CSI 1000 Index option, SSE 500ETF option, Shenzhen 500ETF option, ChiNext ETF option, Shenzhen 100ETF option, SSE 50 Index option, STAR 50ETF option, and E Fund STAR 50ETF option [9][21][33][45][56][70][83][96][109][122][135][142]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price increased with higher trading volume last night, and the main contract price broke through the high point in March this year, followed by intraday volatile adjustment. Since Freeport announced a copper mine production cut on September 24th, the copper price has shown a significant increase with higher trading volume, attracting rapid attention from capital and showing strong upward momentum. As China is about to enter the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market volatility risks [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated downward today, with a continuous decline in open interest. Last week, affected by the sharp rise in copper prices, the aluminum price stabilized and rebounded, but the overall rebound was weak. Before the domestic holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction in electrolytic aluminum, providing support for the aluminum price. With a loose macro - environment and a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance during the peak industrial season, there was an obvious outflow of funds before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the industrial demand situation after the holiday [5]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated downward today, with a slight decline in open interest. The sector - wide effect of the non - ferrous metals sector driven by copper prices has faded, and the nickel price has dropped back to the level at the beginning of last week. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements continues to suppress the nickel price. In the short term, the slowdown in the accumulation of nickel ore at ports and the reduction of nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange provide support for the nickel price. Continuous attention should be paid to the technical support at the 121,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On September 30th, SMM reported that as the National Day holiday approached, the downstream procurement sentiment of refined copper rod enterprises was weak. The high copper price and the short price - fixing period for downstream customers near the contract roll - over jointly suppressed new orders [8]. - **Nickel**: On September 30th, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 121,000 - 123,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a rise of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 150 - 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory [9][11][12][14][17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25][27][29][31]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [33][37][40][42].

今日国债期货均震荡整理，小幅上涨。9 月制造业 PMI 继续改善，不过 价格指数表现仍偏弱，说明宏观需求端仍存在隐忧，未来货币政策仍偏向宽 松，国债期货下方支撑较强。不过短期来看，全面降息的可能性大大减弱， 加上股市风险偏好上升对国债需求的抑制作用，短期内国债期货上行动能 有所不足。总的来说，短期内上行动能与下行空间均较为有限，预计短期内 国债期货以低位震荡整理为主。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 30 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货低位整理 核心观点 国债期货 | 日报 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending September 26, the combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1127,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 5900 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with losses widening by 17 yuan/ton, suppressing coking enterprises' production enthusiasm. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,423,600 tons, a weekly increase of 13,400 tons. This week, coke inventory shifted downstream. The inventory of independent coking plants and ports decreased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 166,400 tons to 6,613,100 tons, and the total industrial chain coke inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 9,204,100 tons. Overall, the coke fundamentals have limited drivers, policy uncertainty decreases, market waiting - and - seeing sentiment rises, and pre - holiday capital outflows lead to the weak operation of coke futures [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: Pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment was released. Since the night session last Friday, JM2601 has continuously reduced positions with a downward - trending price, indicating that the market is mainly characterized by long - position holders taking the initiative to exit. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coking coal is not obvious, supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The fundamentals lack support, and the recent "anti - involution" policy disturbances have eased, resulting in strong market waiting - and - seeing sentiment. As of the week ending September 26, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 772,000 tons, a weekly increase of 11,000 tons but 25,000 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port continued to rise, approaching 8000 trucks per week. The combined daily output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1127,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 5900 tons. Overall, the impact of previous production capacity verifications was basically realized in September, the positive "anti - involution" expectations slowed down, the actual supply of coking coal recovered marginally, and pre - holiday long - position holders' risk - aversion demand led to the oscillatory correction of the main contract. During the holiday, focus on changes in economic policy expectations and whether an increase in coal mine accidents will lead to stricter safety supervision [6][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - **Manufacturing PMI**: China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [7]. - **Coking Coal Price in Xingtai**: On September 30, the coking coal prices in the Xingtai market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal was 1490 yuan/ton, and the price of 1/3 coking coal was 1170 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory cash - inclusive prices effective from the 1st [9]. Spot Market - **Coke and Coking Coal Prices**: Provided the price quotes and changes of coke and coking coal in different markets such as Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Ganqimao Port, and Jingtang Port, including week - on - week, month - on - month, year - on - year, and compared with the same period changes [11]. Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Included charts of coke inventory in 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plant coke inventory, and total coke inventory [14][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Included charts of coking coal inventory at mine mouths, in ports, in all - sample independent coking plants, and in 247 sample steel mills [19][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Included charts of domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw - thread steel procurement, washing - plant production, and coking - plant operation [25][28][30]. Future Outlook - **Coke**: The analysis of coke's supply, demand, and inventory was the same as the core view, concluding that the weak operation of coke futures was due to limited fundamentals, decreased policy uncertainty, increased market waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and pre - holiday capital outflows [32]. - **Coking Coal**: The analysis of coking coal's supply, demand, and market sentiment was the same as the core view, suggesting that the oscillatory correction of the main contract was due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, limited fundamentals, and marginal supply recovery. Attention should be paid to economic policy expectations and safety supervision during the holiday [33].

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 降息开启，地缘政治加剧，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：节前黄金白银加速上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the expansion of QDII fund scale and the increase in the number of Southbound Connect investors, the demand and allocation ratio of overseas bond assets by Chinese - funded institutions will rise, and Japanese US - dollar bonds may have high allocation value [22]. - There is a 'long - holiday market' pattern in the bond market this year. Given the large - scale adjustment of yields and a favorable slope, the market during the last two trading days before the National Day holiday may be positive [22]. - Favorable cyclical factors of emerging from low inflation and structural institutional designs such as reducing the savings rate, A - share volatility, attracting long - term funds into the market, and increasing the dividend payout ratio will improve the long - term return of A - shares relative to bonds [23]. - The US bond market is large - scale and mature. However, risks in US municipal bonds should be noted due to the possibility of local government bankruptcy [23]. - The cost - performance of chasing pan - technology stocks in the stock market is decreasing. It is recommended to shift to mid - cap stocks and deploy traditional sectors with low valuations and policy expectations and non - banking sectors. Convertible bonds still have room for performance [23]. - The yield spread has reached a long - cycle bottom. With the end of debt - resolution policies, risks may be re - priced [24]. 3. Summary of Different Sections 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% of the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, slightly higher than the previous month's 50.1% and the same as the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively. New RMB loans in financial institutions reached 590 billion yuan [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, emphasizing high - quality development during the '15th Five - Year Plan' period [2]. - The new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan can leverage about 6 trillion yuan in investment [2]. - The PBC's Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the stability of the capital market. The A - share market has shown a positive trend this year [3]. - China's water conservancy infrastructure construction has made new progress. The investment in water conservancy construction is expected to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan during the '14th Five - Year Plan' period, 1.6 times that of the '13th Five - Year Plan' [3]. - The US has introduced export control rules, and China firmly opposes this and will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose. Gold prices hit a record high. London base metals mostly increased. The eight - department plan for the non - ferrous metal industry will support the demand for base metals in the long term [5]. - Bank of America raised its copper price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [5]. - As of September 26th, the inventory of some metals on the London Metal Exchange changed, with tin and zinc inventories decreasing, nickel and aluminum inventories changing, and copper and lead inventories hitting new lows [5]. - As of September 29th, the position of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.60% [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center launched the 'Iron Ore Port Spot Price Index' to challenge the international pricing system [7]. - After the Trump administration's policies, some US coal mining companies' stock prices rose [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC + may increase oil production again in November, and a meeting will be held on October 5th to discuss the increase [9]. - TotalEnergies' CEO said that if the EU bans Russian LNG imports, it can be shipped to Turkey or India. The company expects gas demand to grow by 6% - 7% in the next few years [9]. - Crude oil from the Iraqi Kurdistan region is flowing into Turkey's Ceyhan Port at a rate of 150,000 - 160,000 barrels per day [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Chinese customers have reduced purchases of US soybeans, and South American soybeans are replacing US soybeans in the Chinese market [10]. - The US Department of Agriculture released data on the export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn [10]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 29th, the central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 48.1 billion yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, emphasizing high - quality development during the '15th Five - Year Plan' period [13]. - The new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan can leverage about 6 trillion yuan in investment [13]. - In August, local government bonds worth 980.1 billion yuan were issued. From January to August, the total issuance was 7.6838 trillion yuan [14]. - From January to August, the operating income of state - owned enterprises was 53.96 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 2.79 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.7% [14]. - Shanghai issued a document to promote the high - quality development of free - trade offshore bonds [15]. - The US and Japan have introduced export control measures, and China firmly opposes these and will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [15]. - Banks and wealth management subsidiaries are promoting holiday - themed financial products, but investors need to be aware of risks [15]. - The stock - bond constant ETF is expected to be launched this year [16]. - As of the end of June 2025, China's banking industry's external financial assets, liabilities, and net assets were 1.7721 trillion US dollars, 1.5377 trillion US dollars, and 234.4 billion US dollars respectively [16]. - Some bond - related events include defaults, asset seizures, mergers, and judicial auctions [16]. - Some overseas credit ratings were confirmed, adjusted, or revoked [17]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market weakened, especially the ultra - long - end bonds. The 30 - year treasury bond yield rose by more than 2bp, and the corresponding futures contract fell by 0.47% [18]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose, and some fell [18]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.87%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose by 1.10% [18]. - On September 29th, most money market interest rates rose, and the performance of inter - bank repurchase rates varied [19]. - European and US bond yields generally fell [20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose by 143 points, and the central parity rate was raised by 63 points. The US dollar index fell by 0.26%, and most non - US currencies rose [21]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Japanese US - dollar bonds may have high allocation value [22]. - The bond market may have a positive trend during the last two trading days before the National Day holiday [22]. - Long - term A - share returns relative to bonds may improve [23]. - The US bond market has its characteristics, and risks in US municipal bonds should be noted [23]. - Stock and convertible bond investment strategies are recommended [23]. - The bond market is at a crossroads, and the yield spread may face re - pricing [24]. 3.4 Stock Market Highlights - A - shares rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.74%. The trading volume was 2.18 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.89%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of 16.54 billion Hong Kong dollars [27]. - Over 60% of private equity institutions plan to hold heavy positions during the holiday, and most are optimistic about the post - holiday A - share market, with a preference for technology - related sectors [27]. - The capital market is cracking down on illegal activities such as financial fraud [28]. - The stock - bond constant ETF is expected to be launched this year [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being 'oscillation','oscillation', and 'oscillation and weakening' respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract closed sharply down 2.87% to 480.3 yuan/barrel on the overnight session on Monday, and is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Tuesday [5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The end of the conflict between Israel and Qatar announced by US President Trump and the potential cooling of the Israel - Palestine conflict with the approval of Arab countries have led to a significant reduction in Middle East geopolitical risks, causing the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures to decline weakly on the overnight session on Monday [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for September 30, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Power Coal - The power coal data shows the basis from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis gradually decreased from -95.4 yuan/ton on September 23 to -102.4 yuan/ton on September 29, while the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month remained 0.0 [2] Group 3: Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data on fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented. The basis and price ratios of these commodities changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 15.24 yuan/ton on September 23 and 13.03 yuan/ton on September 29 [7] Chemical Commodities - In the chemical sector, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. The basis of these commodities fluctuated from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber decreased from -825 yuan/ton on September 23 to -825 yuan/ton on September 29 [9] - The cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of chemical commodities are also given. For cross - period spreads, different spreads such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are shown for various chemicals. For cross - variety spreads, spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol are presented with their values changing from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [11] Group 4: Black Metals - The black metal data includes cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as basis data. For cross - period spreads, values for 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month are given for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For cross - variety spreads, ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil are presented. The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal also changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [20][21] Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - In the domestic non - ferrous metal market, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis values of these metals fluctuated during this period [28] London Market - In the London market, data on LME non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. Information such as LME forward premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss are given for September 29, 2025 [33] Group 6: Agricultural Products - The agricultural product data includes basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For basis, values of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are shown from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads are calculated for different months (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for various agricultural products. The cross - variety spreads such as the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, etc. are also presented with their values changing over the period [38] Group 7: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures data includes basis and cross - period spreads. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter are given for these stock index futures [49]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is a wide - range shock, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the intraday view is a weak shock [1][5]. - The core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking willingness and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy favorable expectations [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is a shock, the medium - term trend is an upward movement, the intraday trend is a weak shock, and the overall view is a wide - range shock. The core logic is the conflict between short - term capital profit - taking and medium - and long - term policy favorable expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is a weak shock, the medium - term view is an upward movement, and the reference view is a wide - range shock [5]. - Yesterday, all stock indexes fluctuated and rose. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1781 trillion yuan, an increase of 12 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - The Politburo meeting on September 29 studied major issues in formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment [5]. - In the medium and long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the long - term net inflow trend of funds are the driving forces for the upward movement of stock indexes. In the short term, due to the significant increase in the stock valuation and the approaching of the index to the previous high, the demand for profit - taking of profitable funds increases, and the upward momentum of the stock index before the holiday is limited [5]. - The future market mainly focuses on the game between the rhythm of capital profit - taking and the fermentation of policy expectations [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 资金离场观望，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 节前观望情绪增加，焦炭期货震 荡运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：截至 9 月 26 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦 ...