Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist. The investment suggestion for TL2603 is to maintain a range - bound consolidation. Overall, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term outlook is range - bound, the medium - term outlook is range - bound, and the intraday outlook is weak. The reference view is range - bound consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still medium - and long - term easing expectations [1] 2. Price Quotation Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak, and the medium - term view is range - bound. The reference view is range - bound consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having a relatively large decline. After last week's rebound, the Treasury bond yield decreased, reflecting certain expectations of central bank interest rate cuts. However, the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm will likely maintain strong determination, and the short - term rebound driven by interest rate cut expectations is limited. Additionally, the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in Q1 2026 will bring supply - side pressure, suppressing the prices of Treasury bond cash bonds, especially medium - and long - term Treasury bonds [5]

Report Overview - The report is the morning report of precious metals and non - ferrous metals of Baocheng Futures on December 30, 2025, covering gold and copper [1]. Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - For gold, short - term is "oscillation", mid - term is "strong", and intraday is "oscillation and slightly strong", with a reference view of "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity is beneficial to the gold price, but the willingness of long - position holders to close positions before the holiday is strong [1][3]. - For copper, short - term is "oscillation", mid - term is "strong", and intraday is "oscillation and slightly strong", with a reference view of "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations push up the copper price, but the willingness of long - position holders to close positions before the holiday is strong [1][4]. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, precious metals tumbled significantly. Shanghai gold fell below the 1000 - yuan mark, and New York gold successively fell below the 4500 - dollar and 4400 - dollar marks, with an intraday decline of over 4% [3]. - **Driving Logic**: After the Christmas break in the overseas market, the short - term macro - atmosphere cooled down, and the willingness of long - position holders to close positions was strong. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals generally fell on Monday. It is expected that funds will be cautious before the New Year's Day holiday, and Shanghai gold can focus on the support of the 20 - day moving average [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the copper price dropped from a high level, with an intraday high - level decline of nearly 4000 yuan/ton. The night - session maintained a weak trend, and the main futures price fell to the 96,000 - yuan mark. LME copper opened high and closed low yesterday, basically falling back to the price before the Christmas holiday [4]. - **Driving Logic**: As the New Year's Day holiday approaches, the willingness of long - position funds to take profits and close positions is strong. Industrial pressure has been continuously accumulating during the continuous rise of the copper price in December and needs time to digest. It is expected that funds will be cautious before the holiday, and the 95,000 - yuan mark support can be focused on [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and financial markets are experiencing significant fluctuations, with various industries showing different trends. For example, the metal market has seen extreme price swings, the energy market has supply - related changes, and the stock and bond markets have their own performance characteristics [4][10][30] - China is implementing a series of economic policies, such as tariff adjustments and promoting the development of digital RMB, which will have an impact on domestic and international trade and the financial system [2][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing certain trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other monetary indicators also had corresponding changes in November 2025 [1] Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From January 1, 2026, China will implement import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation rates for 935 commodities to enhance resource linkage and expand high - quality supply [2] - On December 29, 2025, 40 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 26 had negative basis [2] Metal - Precious metals had a volatile "Black Monday". Silver first soared and then plunged, dragging down other precious metals. International and domestic metal prices and futures contracts showed significant declines [4][5] - On December 29, 2025, CME Group raised metal futures trading margins, triggering price drops [5] - In 2025, silver prices broke a 45 - year record and were higher than crude oil prices, driven by industrial and investment demand [5] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Ore - Bauxite miner Axis has filed a $29 billion claim against Guinea [9] Energy and Chemicals - U.S. refineries are expected to have capacity outages in the coming weeks, with the scale increasing [10] - India's oil imports from Russia in December 2025 are expected to exceed 1 million barrels per day [10] Agricultural Products - China's grain output in 2025 was 1.43 trillion jin, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, mainly due to the increase in corn production [12] - As of December 2025, the autumn grain purchase volume exceeded 200 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32 million tons [13] Financial News Open Market - On December 29, 2025, the central bank conducted 482.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 415 billion yuan [14] Important News - The Chinese military conducted the "Justice Mission - 2025" exercise around Taiwan [15] - China will start to pay interest on digital RMB from January 1, 2026 [15] Bond Market - The bond market was generally weak, with treasury bond futures falling and bond yields rising [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0098 on December 29, 2025, down 13 points from the previous trading day [26] Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that in the short term, the bond market carry strategy is relatively certain, and there is room for the repair of long - end bonds [27] - CITIC Securities suggests paying attention to high - grade state - owned enterprise perpetual bonds in industries such as public utilities, transportation, and construction [27] Stock Market - A - shares showed a divergence between large and small indexes. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell [30] - Hong Kong stocks fluctuated, with the Hang Seng Index falling 0.71% [30]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 12 月 30 日） 一、动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/12/29 | -131.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/26 | -129.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/25 | -125.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/24 | -120.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/23 | -114.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/12/29 2025/12/26 2025/12/25 2025/12/24 2025/ ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 52 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2727.80 万吨，环比降 62.40 万吨，延续回落但仍处年内高位；其中巴西矿到 货降 65.80 万吨，澳矿则是微增 20.30 万吨，非澳巴矿到货环比降 16.90 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运大幅增加，全球矿石发运总量为 3677.10 万吨，环比增 212.58 万吨，再创年内单周 新高。增量主要源于主流矿商发运回升，四大矿商合计增 223.94 万吨；细分地区看澳矿、巴西矿分别增 163.08、81.77 万吨，非澳巴矿则是环比降 32.27 万吨，均位于年内高位。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量稳中有升，海外矿石供应相对积极。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term stock index fluctuates strongly: Recently, the trading volume of the stock market has gradually increased, and the stock index has risen continuously, indicating that the market risk appetite continues to recover. With the approaching of the new year, positive policy expectations are gradually fermenting. Coupled with the RMB appreciation, a large amount of relatively high - interest time deposits will mature next year, and the "re - allocation" may bring a large amount of incremental capital inflow to the stock market. The positive policy expectations and the capital inflow trend together form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index. As the stock index approaches the previous high, short - term attention should be paid to whether the stock index can break through the technical resistance of the previous high. Overall, the positive factors continue to ferment, and the stock index fluctuates strongly in the short term [3][9][80] - ETF options and stock index options: Adhere to bull spread or ratio spread. Considering that the stock index is upward in the medium - to - long - term, the idea of bull spread or ratio spread bullish can be maintained [4][81] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, the stock index fluctuated and consolidated. The recent increase in trading volume and continuous rise of the stock index indicate the continuous recovery of market risk appetite. Positive policy expectations and capital inflow trends form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index. Short - term attention should be paid to the technical resistance of the previous high [9] - The closing prices and price changes of major spot indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are provided [12] 3.1.2 Option Price Trends - The weekly price changes of various option underlying assets are given. For example, 50ETF had a weekly decline of 1.79%, and 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.13% [16][17] - The weekly price changes of the main contracts of various option varieties, including the weekly price changes of call and put contracts at different exercise prices and different contract expiration months, are provided [18] 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Monthly Differences - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties: The basis of IF and IH is at a normal quantile level, while IM and IC show a state of significant backwardation in the far - month futures. The inter - period spread between the current quarter and the next quarter of IC and IM futures has declined, indicating that market sentiment is relatively stable and the uncertainty risk in the far - month has decreased [22] 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options, including Shanghai Composite 50ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF options, etc., and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided [35] 3.2.2 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options, such as Shanghai Composite 50ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF options, etc., are provided [53] 3.3 Conclusion - The same as the core viewpoints, short - term stock index fluctuates strongly, and ETF options and stock index options adhere to bull spread or ratio spread [80][81]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 下游需求疲弱，煤焦低位运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 12 月 26 日当周，全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合计焦炭日 产量 109.47 万吨，周环比基本持平，小幅下降 0.02 万吨/天；全国 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量 226.58 万吨，焦炭供需均在低位企稳，基本面无明 显好转。整体来看，焦炭短期基本面依然疲弱，但需求端预期有所好转， 市场多空僵持，期货主力合约暂维持低位震荡运行，关注后续下游生产和 采购节奏。 焦煤：截至 12 月 26 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 74 万 吨，环比下降 1.8 万吨，同比偏低 2 万吨；焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量 109.47 万吨，周环比小幅下降 0.02 万吨。进口方面，12 月截至 20 日， 288 口岸累计蒙煤通关 26498 车，环比 11 月的高基数进一步增长 23.0%，蒙煤高进口对国内煤价形成压制。供应整体持稳，需求维持低 位，焦煤供需格局中性仍偏宽松，使得产业链各环节焦煤均有所累库。整 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.71%, and the volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded while demand is seasonally weak, with a weak fundamental situation. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season. However, the positive commodity sentiment means that the steel price is expected to continue an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.55%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil has improved while the supply is at a low level, and the supply - demand pattern has improved, providing price support. However, the demand resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to continue an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.58%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and positive commodity sentiment, iron ore is at a high level. However, the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high, with a weak fundamental situation and limited upward driving force. It is expected to continue a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to November 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 6,626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among the main industries in the machinery industry, the total profit of 5 major industries increased, including a 4.8% increase in the general equipment manufacturing industry, 4.6% in the special equipment manufacturing industry, 7.5% in the automobile manufacturing industry, 4.2% in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and 3% in the instrument and meter manufacturing industry [7]. - According to the production schedule report of three major white - goods released by Industrial Online, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in January 2026 was 34.53 million units, a 6% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners in January was 18.51 million units, an 11% increase; the production schedule of refrigerators was 7.92 million units, a 3.6% increase; and the production schedule of washing machines was 8.1 million units, a 1.8% decrease [8]. - As of December 27, 14 steel enterprises announced the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and assessment and monitoring. To date, 264 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,270 yuan, Tianjin was 3,170 yuan, and the national average was 3,326 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,280 yuan, Tianjin was 3,180 yuan, and the national average was 3,294 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,940 yuan. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,090 yuan. - PB powder (Shandong ports): The price was 799 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price was 782 yuan. - Shipping costs: Australia was 8.89 yuan, and Brazil was 23.43 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 107.15 yuan. - Platts Index (CFR, 62%): The price was 107.85 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,130 yuan, with a 0.71% increase, the highest price was 3,150 yuan, the lowest was 3,116 yuan, the trading volume was 1,051,146 lots, a decrease of 81,487 lots, the open interest was 1,530,792 lots, a decrease of 3,632 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,287 yuan, with a 0.55% increase, the highest price was 3,308 yuan, the lowest was 3,280 yuan, the trading volume was 511,982 lots, an increase of 21,578 lots, the open interest was 1,276,297 lots, an increase of 43,907 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 796.5 yuan, with a 2.58% increase, the highest price was 803.0 yuan, the lowest was 782.0 yuan, the trading volume was 461,928 lots, an increase of 170,810 lots, the open interest was 629,681 lots, an increase of 48,950 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, 45 - port iron ore inventory, and 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, as well as charts on steel mill production such as blast furnace operating rates, electric furnace operating rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills [16][21][29]. 5. Future Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are weakly stable. Rebar weekly production increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week, and supply continues to rebound but remains at a relatively low level. Demand is seasonally weak, with both weekly apparent demand and daily high - frequency transactions declining. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, and it is expected to continue an oscillatory trend due to positive commodity sentiment [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, with an expanding inventory decline. Weekly production increased by 16,300 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low level within the year. Demand is showing improvement, with weekly apparent demand increasing by 87,600 tons week - on - week. However, the demand resilience is questionable, and the high inventory level limits the upward driving force. It is expected to continue an oscillatory trend [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, with port inventory rising to a high level. Steel mill production is stable, and terminal ore consumption is stable. Overseas ore supply is positive, with a significant increase in miner shipments. It is expected to continue a high - level oscillatory trend, and the pre - holiday steel mill restocking is a positive factor [38].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention any investment ratings for the industry. Core Views - **Copper**: Macro factors continue to drive up copper prices, but caution is needed for a potential high - level pullback before the New Year's Day holiday. Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts. The market liquidity recovered after the yen interest rate hike in late December, pushing up copper prices. However, the pressure on the mid - and downstream industries has been increasing, with the basis and calendar spreads weakening and the social inventory of electrolytic copper rising significantly. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton, much lower than in 2025, which may lead to production cuts and intensify supply shortage expectations. The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. Also, with the approaching New Year's Day holiday, there may be an increasing willingness to close positions, so a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are positive, while industrial factors are negative, leading to high - level oscillations in aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike. On the industrial side, as aluminum prices rose, downstream hesitation increased, and the spot discount remained weak. The expectation of aluminum replacing copper in the home appliance sector provides support for long - term demand. The short - term rise in aluminum prices is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the yen interest rate hike, market liquidity recovered, the US dollar index showed a weak performance, and copper prices trended upward [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark, and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts, indicating high short - term capital attention and a significant increase in volatility [5][16]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to recover from a low level and was approaching the same - period level of previous years. On December 26, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 670,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, which lays a price support foundation for 2026 from the industrial perspective [25]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 202,200 tons, a weekly increase of 27,700 tons. On December 26, the combined inventory of COMEX and LME was 640,000 tons, a weekly increase of 17,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - SMM expects the total output of the copper rod industry in December to decrease by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of operating rates, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the volatility increased. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On December 26, the port inventory of bauxite was 2.60207 billion tons, a decrease of 5.93 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 821.07 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina prices rebounded significantly, driven by the macro improvement, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants shrank in the short term as the electrolytic aluminum price oscillated at a high level [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 612,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The overseas inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 527,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous week. The high - level operation of aluminum prices has suppressed downstream consumption, and the domestic inventory has increased significantly [50]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly, reflecting the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices. On December 25, the inventory of aluminum rods was 96,000 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week, indicating a decrease in downstream operating rates and the start of inventory consumption [55][57]. 4. Conclusion - **Copper**: The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. With the approaching New Year's Day holiday, a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term rise is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60].

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 沪铝 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 午后铜价高位跳水 核心观点 沪铜 上周五夜盘，沪铜持续上行，突破 10 万关口，主力期价一度站上 10.02 万关口。早盘沪铜低开高走，随后维持高位震荡运行，午后沪 铜减仓跳水明显，基本跌去周五夜盘涨幅，日内高位下挫超 4000 元 /吨。临近元旦假期，叠加铜价短期积累较大涨幅，资金了结意愿较 强，请投资者注意高位持续回落风险，可关注 5 日和 10 日均线支 撑。 今日铝价冲高回落，午后持仓量跟随铝价一同回落。宏观 ...