1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since achieving a net steel export in 2006, China's steel product export volume as a proportion of the global total has been on an upward trend. In recent years, due to tariff disturbances, the domestic steel export market has been expanding, with the export scale increasing year by year. The export volume exceeded 100 million tons in 2024 and reached a new high in 2025 [5][9]. - In 2025, steel exports showed several characteristics: a shift in the export variety structure with the increase coming from long - products, diversification of export countries with an increasing share of emerging markets, and a situation of increasing volume but decreasing price, indicating that the strong steel export was mainly supported by low - price advantages [5][12][16]. - Currently, the domestic price advantage remains, and there is an increase in overseas demand, so the resilience of steel exports still exists. However, there are also more challenges in the future, such as intensified trade frictions, domestic policy adjustments, the EU carbon tariff policy, the recovery of overseas supply, and the pressure of RMB appreciation [5][23][26]. - In summary, weak domestic demand forced steel mills to increase exports, and with good price advantages, steel exports in 2025 were strong, alleviating domestic pressure. However, with the increase of challenges, the resilience of steel exports will be impacted, and the direct export volume may decline from its peak [5][44][47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Steel Exports Reached a New High - China is the world's largest steel producer, and its steel export pattern affects the global steel product trade pattern. In 2025, despite trade barriers, the steel export volume continued to grow. The cumulative export volume of steel products in 2025 was 119.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 830,000 tons or 7.50%. Meanwhile, steel imports remained sluggish, with an import volume of only 6.06 million tons in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 75,000 tons or 11%. The export of steel billets also performed well in 2025, with the cumulative export volume from January to November reaching 1.33801 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 782,000 tons or 140.64%. The combined export increase of steel and steel billets was 1.7 million tons, effectively alleviating the weak domestic demand pressure [9]. - In 2025, steel exports had the following characteristics: - **Shift in export variety structure**: The export increase came from long - products. Due to the downturn in the real estate market, the surplus of domestic construction steel (long - products) increased, and exports became an important factor in adjusting domestic supply - demand balance. From January to November, the cumulative export volumes of bars, sections, and wire rods increased by 527,000 tons, 183,000 tons, and 29,000 tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 43.95%, 34.33%, and 12.13%. In contrast, the export growth rate of plates slowed down, and the export of ordinary plates such as hot - rolled coils and cold - rolled coils was directly affected by anti - dumping measures [12]. - **Diversification of export countries**: Traditional markets were under pressure due to anti - dumping policies, but emerging markets were rising. Southeast Asian countries, the Middle East, Africa, and South America all showed an increase in steel imports from China [16]. - **Increasing volume but decreasing price**: In 2025, the total steel export volume was 119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.50%, while the export value was 82.578 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.26%, indicating that the strong steel export was mainly supported by low - price advantages [19]. 3.2 Steel Exports Face More Challenges - **Reasons for the high - growth of steel exports in 2025**: On the one hand, the intensification of domestic supply - demand contradictions forced steel mills to increase exports. On the other hand, there was a significant cost advantage, and the price difference between domestic and overseas markets was the core driving force for steel exports. Currently, the resilience of steel exports still exists because the domestic price advantage remains, and there is an increase in overseas steel demand. The World Steel Association estimates that global steel demand will rebound moderately by 1.3% in 2026, reaching 1.773 billion tons [23]. - **Challenges in 2026**: - **Intensified trade frictions**: In recent years, the EU, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries have frequently launched "double - anti" investigations and imposed high tariffs on Chinese steel products, resulting in a decline in China's export share in these markets. In 2024, there were 33 original investigations on trade remedies for Chinese steel products, and in 2025, there were more than 150 investigations or arbitrations. In 2026, as the anti - dumping cases from 2024 - 2025 enter the final ruling stage, China's steel exports will face more extensive trade resistance [26]. - **Domestic export policy adjustment**: On December 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs decided to adjust the "Catalogue of Goods Subject to Export License Administration (2025)", including some steel products with 300 customs commodity codes in the catalogue. It is difficult to assess the actual impact of this policy on exports for now. If strictly implemented, large steel enterprises may be less affected, while small and medium - sized enterprises may face restrictions [29]. - **EU carbon tariff policy**: The EU carbon tariff (CBAM) officially started to be levied on January 1, 2026. Once the free quota is completely removed, the CBAM cost of exporting one ton of steel to the EU will increase by 140 - 160 euros, eroding the profit space of enterprises. The implementation of CBAM will significantly weaken China's price advantage in steel exports, and Chinese steel products will face a competitive situation of "being attacked from both inside and outside" in the EU market. In addition, the compliance threshold has been greatly increased, and the short - term export process will be blocked [31]. - **Recovery of overseas supply**: From January to November 2025, the crude steel output of overseas countries (excluding China) was 766.888 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.798 million tons or 0.24%. The emerging markets of India and Southeast Asia maintained high - growth, and the production capacities of Turkey and Iran were recovering. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar credit and the pressure of RMB appreciation will also suppress domestic steel exports [35]. 3.3 Conclusion - China's steel exports have been increasing year by year. In 2025, steel exports reached a new high, showing characteristics such as a shift in the export variety structure, diversification of export countries, and increasing volume but decreasing price. Currently, the resilience of steel exports still exists, but in the future, there will be more challenges, and the direct export volume may decline from its peak [45][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly with little change in open interest. Due to the Greenland issue and rising expectations of EU - US tariffs, market risk appetite declined, causing the non - ferrous sector to be weak overall. Copper, with strong macro properties, was resilient due to the strength of gold and silver. In the industrial aspect, under the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, the month - spread continued to weaken, and the 02 - 03 contract closed approaching 300 yuan/ton. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 100,000 yuan mark [6]. Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum weakened in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon with a decline in open interest. The Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations led to a decline in market risk appetite and a weak non - ferrous sector. On the industrial side, SMM reported that new electrolytic aluminum production capacities at home and abroad were continuously ramping up, and the daily output was steadily increasing. However, the demand side was suppressed by high aluminum prices, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 yuan mark [7]. Nickel - Today, Shanghai nickel weakened in the morning, approaching the 140,000 yuan mark at one point, and stabilized in the afternoon. The macro factors of the Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations reduced market risk appetite and weakened the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of nickel ore decreased seasonally from a high level, while the exchange nickel inventory continued to accumulate at a high level. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 140,000 yuan mark [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics Copper - SMM reported that the LME copper futures price had fallen from its historical high recently, and Goldman Sachs pointed out that the upside space for copper prices might be limited in the near term and predicted a larger decline in the future [10]. Aluminum - Affected by the snowstorm, the bauxite mines in Henan Xin'an area suspended production on the night before yesterday and had gradually resumed work. Due to blocked road transportation, the ore supply decreased by about 80% and was expected to gradually resume shipping tomorrow. SMM would continue to monitor the resumption of production and transportation in the affected mining areas. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.8% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 2.547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 38,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.3% and a year - on - year increase of 194.3%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 298,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 145.7%. In December 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 152,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In 2025, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 2.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% [11]. Nickel - On January 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,900 - 151,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 146,350 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 8,250 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 500 yuan/ton [12]. Relevant Charts Copper - The report provides charts on copper basis, copper month - spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. Aluminum - The report includes charts on aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum month - spread [25][27][33]. Nickel - The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 160500 元/吨，较前日 上涨 13240 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 152540 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.07%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-2920 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 6580 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 专业研究·创造价值 2 / ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.18%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹需求虽有所改善，但持续性存疑，而供应弱稳运行，基本面延续季 节性弱势，淡季钢价承压运行，短期延续震荡偏弱运行态势，关注钢厂 生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走弱，录得 0.97%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，供需双高局面下热卷基本面平稳运行，但需求存有隐忧，一旦其转 弱则产业矛盾易积累，届时价格将承压走弱，重点关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with a short - term and mid - term strong trend and an intraday oscillating and slightly stronger trend. Copper is also projected to be strong in the long - term, with a mid - term strong trend, a short - term oscillating trend, and an intraday oscillating and slightly weaker trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, New York gold opened high and went high, breaking last week's high and approaching $4700 per ounce, while Shanghai gold broke through 1050 yuan per gram [3] - **Driving Factors**: The direct trigger for the gold price increase is the sharp rise in geopolitical risks in "Greenland". The US-EU relationship has deteriorated, with the US threatening tariffs and military action, and the EU preparing retaliatory tariffs. The significant rise of silver has also driven up the price of gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to around 50, a 14 - year low, attracting arbitrage funds into gold [3] - **Viewpoints**: Long - term strong, short - term and mid - term strong, intraday oscillating and slightly stronger. Monitor the long - short game at the $4700 level of New York gold [1][3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price opened high and maintained an oscillating trend. On Monday morning, affected by the "Greenland" issue, the strong opening of precious metals boosted the long sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, causing the copper price to rebound from the bottom [4] - **Industrial Situation**: As the copper price declined, the willingness of some industries to replenish inventory increased slightly, but the social inventory continued to accumulate [4] - **Viewpoints**: Long - term strong, mid - term strong, short - term oscillating, intraday oscillating and slightly weaker. Pay attention to the support at the 100,000 level [1][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic thermal coal price rally has narrowed and stabilized again. The price of thermal coal will maintain a low - level operation due to warm winter temperatures, sufficient overall supply, weak demand, and insufficient fundamental support [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Inventory Data** - As of January 15, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 699 yuan/ton, a slight weekly increase of 6 yuan/ton [5]. - As of January 15, the total coal inventory of 9 ports around the Bohai Sea was 2705.1 million tons, a weekly increase of 33.8 million tons, and 171.2 million tons higher than the same period in 2025 [5]. - **Market Driving Factors** - In mid - January, the temperature in coastal cities in China warmed up, the demand for residential heating declined, and although the temperature will drop significantly again by late January, the coal inventory at ports and downstream power plants is sufficient as of now, leading to a weak market atmosphere and low - level price operation [5]. - This week, coal mines in the main production areas maintained normal production, non - power terminal procurement was relatively stable, but due to the decline in power coal demand, the shipping pressure of some coal mines increased, and the atmosphere at the mine end began to weaken [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The coking coal market has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner [1]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". Concerns about demand are disturbing, and coke is expected to operate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - As of the week of January 16, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons (due to the addition of a new survey sample this period, the data increase was significant). The combined daily average output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 110.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 million tons. The coking coal market maintains a situation of increasing supply and demand, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and Spring Festival coal mine shutdowns have already fermented. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - As of the week of January 16, the combined daily average output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 110.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 million tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.49 million tons. On Sunday of last week, an explosion occurred at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, triggering concerns about downstream production cuts and increasing market negative feedback expectations. Coupled with the lack of obvious support from the coke's own fundamentals, the coke futures are suppressed to maintain low and weak operation [6].

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report [1][5][21][27][38][48] 2. Core Viewpoint The report is a daily data report on futures variety arbitrage from Baocheng Futures on January 20, 2026, presenting basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data for multiple futures varieties [1] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On January 19, 2026, the basis was - 108 yuan/ton, showing a slight change compared to previous days [2] - **Inter - period Spread**: The spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month - 1 - month", and "9 - month - 5 - month" were all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the basis of INE crude oil being 1.71 on January 19 [7] - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio data of relevant energy commodities were presented, like the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt being 1.01 on January 19 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period Spread**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, the inter - period spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month - 1 - month", and "9 - month - 5 - month" were given, e.g., the "5 - month - 1 - month" spread of rubber was - 635 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the LLDPE - PVC spread being 1905 yuan/ton on January 19 [9] - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the rubber basis being - 45 yuan/ton on January 19 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the inter - period spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month(10) - 1 - month", and "9 - month(10) - 5 - month" were given, e.g., the "5 - month - 1 - month" spread of rebar was - 79 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the rebar/iron ore ratio being 3.95 on January 19 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the rebar basis being 140 yuan/ton on January 19 [21] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the copper basis being - 160 yuan/ton on January 19 [31] 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Premium/Discount**: The LME premium/discount data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 19, 2026, were given, e.g., the copper LME premium was 67.55 [34] - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratio data of relevant non - ferrous metals on January 19, 2026, were presented, like the copper Shanghai - London ratio being 7.83 [34] - **CIF Price, Domestic Spot Price, and Import Profit/Loss**: The CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the copper import loss being 1357.81 [34] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the soybeans No.1 basis being - 161 yuan/ton on January 19 [38] - **Inter - period Spread**: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, the inter - period spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month - 1 - month", and "9 - month - 5 - month" were given, e.g., the "5 - month - 1 - month" spread of soybeans No.1 was - 6 [38] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the soybeans No.1/corn ratio being 1.89 on January 19 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the CSI 300 basis being 5.86 on January 19 [49] - **Inter - period Spread**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, the inter - period spreads of "next - month - current - month" and "next - quarter - current - quarter" were given, e.g., the "next - month - current - month" spread of CSI 300 was - 46 [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IMF has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and also increased the growth forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. AI - driven IT investment growth is becoming an important driver for the global economy [2][16]. - The Chinese economy's 2025 "report card" shows that GDP grew by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with the service industry's share in GDP rising to 57.7%, and final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth, while fixed - asset investment declined by 3.8% [2][13]. - In the stock market, on Monday, A - shares had a shrinking - volume oscillation with major indices showing different trends. A - share listed companies' 2025 annual report performance pre - announcements are accelerating, and AI is a strong driver for corporate performance growth [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous period and 5.4% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 49.8% in the previous period, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous period [1]. - Social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [1]. - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous period, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous period and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's 2025 economic data shows overall growth in multiple sectors, with a decline in fixed - asset investment, especially in real - estate development investment [2]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss Trump's tariff threat and consider counter - measures, and is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate futures contracts starting from January 21 [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - COMEX gold futures' February contract reached a record high of $4698 per ounce on January 19, approaching the $4700 mark, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of a decline in the US dollar's credit. Gold ETFs and futures are more suitable for short - term investment [4]. - Japan will use 39 billion yen in reserve funds to ensure rare - earth supply [5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved an increase in tin futures delivery warehouses and their approved storage capacities in Guangdong [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In early January, key steel enterprises' daily crude - steel output was 1.997 million tons, a 10.51% increase from the previous period but a 3.29% decrease year - on - year. Pig - iron and steel production also showed different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [7]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, which will enhance the global iron - ore supply [7]. - Shanxi produced over 13 billion tons of coal in 2025, and 65 billion tons during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, an increase of 19 billion tons compared to the 13th Five - Year Plan [7]. - Coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, enriching the risk - management tools for the coal - coke - steel industry chain [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 price forecast for TTF natural gas to 36 euros [9]. - Venezuela has officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. - After Maduro's downfall, many trade and oil companies are competing for the deal to export Venezuelan crude oil to the US [9][10]. - China National Coal Group will promote the clean and efficient use of coal, transforming it from a fuel to "raw material + material" [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The average price of live pigs rebounded this week. On January 16, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.07 yuan per kilogram, up 0.6% from January 9, and the average price this week was 18 yuan per kilogram, up 0.3% from last week [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 19, the central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan after 86.1 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases matured [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - China's 2025 economic data, including population changes, shows a decrease in the population by 339,000 [13][14]. - In December 2025, housing prices in major Chinese cities showed different trends, with some cities' price declines narrowing and Shanghai's new - home prices rising [14]. - The NDRC and the Ministry of Finance will hold press conferences to introduce relevant economic policies [14]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized high - quality development, calling for more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [15]. - The central bank will announce the January LPR on January 20 [15]. - The Supreme People's Procuratorate has made arrangements to use legal power to serve high - quality development, including cracking down on economic crimes and safeguarding the capital market [17]. - The CSRC's 2026 system work meeting has outlined a clear path for capital - market reform [18]. - In 2025, the number and scale of registered insurance asset - management products decreased [18]. - There is a heated discussion about the "2026 time - deposit maturity wave", with different views on the scale, but most banks are not worried [19]. - There are several bond - related events, such as bond rating changes and early redemptions [20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The bond market showed an overall weak and oscillating trend, with most Treasury - bond futures closing down, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rising slightly. Some bonds like Vanke and AVIC Industry Finance bonds rose [21]. - The money - market interest rates showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [22][23]. - The yields of some financial bonds were determined in the bidding process, and European bond yields mostly increased [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9636 on January 20, up 54 basis points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was 7.0051, up 27 basis points [25]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.32% in New York's late trading, and most non - US currencies rose [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income states that the issuance of new special bonds this year is faster than in previous years but has not significantly accelerated. The planned issuance of local bonds in Q1 2026 is 2.1179 trillion yuan, similar to the same period in 2025 [27]. - CICC Fixed - Income suggests that in the current fluctuating interest - rate bond yield environment, credit - bond yields may follow the fluctuations, especially for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. It also recommends paying attention to short - term trading opportunities and non - financial credit bonds with a remaining term of about 5 years. The future spread of science - and - technology innovation bonds depends on the change in the scale of science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs [27]. - CITIC Securities believes that Trump's tariff threat is a means to test the EU's attitude, and the change of Greenland's territory is difficult to achieve. If the US takes real actions, gold may benefit, the US dollar's credit may be damaged, and European assets may be under pressure [28]. 3.4 Stock Market - On Monday, A - shares had a shrinking - volume oscillation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%, and the total market turnover was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day. Power - infrastructure, AVIC - related, and Hainan Free - Trade - Port concepts led the gains, while semiconductors and consumer electronics led the losses [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points, with pharmaceutical stocks leading the decline and aviation stocks rising. South - bound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$2.3 billion [32]. - A - share listed companies' 2025 annual report performance pre - announcements are accelerating, with 156 out of 451 companies reporting positive pre - announcements, and 42 companies expecting a net - profit increase of over 100% year - on - year [32].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，建筑钢厂生产趋稳，螺纹产量有所收缩，但品种吨钢利润尚可，供 应减量难持续，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求迎来改善，周度表需环比增加，但高频每日 成交表现低迷，两者仍是近年来同期低位，而下游行业未好转，需求延续季节性弱势，继而拖累钢 ...