投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 3 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪回暖，钢矿偏强震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 1.45%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，基本面延续季节性弱势，淡季钢价易承 压，相对利好则是库存低位，现实矛盾不大，且近期政策利好发酵，市 场情绪偏暖，支撑钢价短期偏强运行，重点关注政策兑现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走高，录得 1.45%日涨幅，量缩仓稳。目前来 看，热卷供需两端平稳运行为主，基本面并未好转，库存持续累库，但 政策利好预期再度发酵，乐观情绪支撑下热卷价格短期维持偏强运行态 势，谨防交易逻辑切换至产业端。 铁矿石：主力期价偏强运行，录得 2.45%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，叠加市场情绪偏暖，短期矿价走势偏强运 行，但矿石需求存有隐忧，且供应表现趋稳，供需格局改善有限，上行 高度谨慎乐观，关注成材表现情况。 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/01 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/30 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/27 | -181.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/26 | -183.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy shows mixed trends with stable GDP growth, some improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs, and varying performance in other economic indicators. The capital market is undergoing reforms to optimize mechanisms and protect investors. Different industries such as metals, energy, and agriculture face diverse market situations [1][2][15] - The bond market in China has a strong performance recently, while the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has some fluctuations. The stock market has sector - specific movements, with some traditional sectors showing strength and new开户 numbers increasing [21][26][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 had a 5.4% year - on - year growth, unchanged from the previous quarter but slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in June was 50.5%, also up from 50.3% in the previous month [1] - In May 2025, social financing scale increased, M0, M1, and M2 had different year - on - year growth rates, and financial institution RMB loans increased. CPI remained at - 0.1% year - on - year, while PPI decreased further to - 3.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment growth slowed, while social consumer goods retail grew [1] - In May 2025, exports had a 4.8% year - on - year growth, down from 8.1% in the previous month, and imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The CSRC will optimize capital market mechanisms, protect investors, and promote reforms. The DCE will list pure benzene futures and options on July 8, which will provide risk - management tools for the industry [2] - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, and the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September [2] 3.2.2 Metals - Chinese lithium - battery industry chains are expanding to Southeast Asia. New regulations on anti - money - laundering reporting for large - scale precious - metal cash transactions have little impact on ordinary consumers [3] - On July 2, international gold prices declined slightly. However, with expectations of a Fed rate cut and strong central - bank gold purchases, gold prices are expected to remain stable. Multiple institutions are bullish on gold prices in 2026 [3][4] - On July 1, LME aluminum, copper, and nickel inventories increased, while zinc, lead, tin inventories decreased [4] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On July 2, A - share steel and photovoltaic sectors had a rally due to the "anti - involution" campaign. Tangshan is likely to intensify environmental protection - related production restrictions [6] - Vale lowered its 2025 iron ore pellet production forecast. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota validity period from three to one year [6][7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC's crude - oil production reached a four - month high in June due to Saudi Arabia's push to regain market share, increasing downward pressure on oil prices [9] - The US EIA crude - oil inventory in the week ending June 27 was 3.845 million barrels, higher than expected. US weekly crude imports increased, while exports and domestic production decreased slightly [9][10] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On July 2, the central bank conducted 98.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan. In June, the central bank had net liquidity injections through various tools [14] 3.3.2 Key News - Many foreign institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth. The NDRC has allocated over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "two important" construction projects in 2025 [15] - The CSRC emphasizes capital - market reforms and risk prevention. The Ministry of Finance plans to issue and use special and special - purpose bonds earlier, and some super - long - term special bonds will be issued ahead of schedule in Q3 [15][16] - The "self - review and self - issuance" pilot for local government special bonds is progressing, and the issuance is expected to speed up in H2. The logistics industry index in June was 50.8%, up from the previous month [17] 3.3.3 Bond Market - China's bond market showed a strong performance, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market falling and bond - futures prices rising. The money - market rates mostly declined [21][23] - In the exchange - bond market, some bonds rose, while others fell. The convertible - bond market had mixed performance. Overseas, European and US bond yields generally increased [22][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1670 on July 2, down 52 points from the previous day. The US dollar index rose 0.14% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [26] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB internationalization has room for improvement in investment and official reserves, and suggests several development directions. CICC Fixed Income recommends paying attention to REITs' allocation opportunities [27] - Fitch Ratings believes that using special bonds to purchase existing commercial housing for affordable housing can strengthen the policy function of Chinese urban - investment enterprises [27] 3.4 Stock Market News - On July 2, A - share steel and photovoltaic sectors had a rally due to the "anti - involution" campaign. In June, A - share new accounts increased by 5.84% month - on - month, and the H1 total was 32.77% higher than in 2024 [29][30] - The Hong Kong market has been rising this year, with the Hang Seng Index up 20% in H1 and significant south - bound capital inflows. The IPO outlook in Hong Kong has been upgraded [31][32]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘溢价会进一步回落。在经历前期大幅回落以后，本周油市步 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-03 品种晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： ------------------------------------------ ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，甲醇震荡偏强 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：在地缘风险快速降温以后，甲醇期货溢价陆续回吐。随着国内甲醇产能持续释放，周度 产量和周度开工率显著回升，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供应预期逐渐 增大，港口迎来累库周期，华东和华 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪偏暖，矿价偏强运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） 参考观点：震荡偏强 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均继续窄幅震荡整理。股市全市场成交额 14051 亿元，较上日缩量 914 亿元。 目前股指的主要支撑力量来自于对未来政策面的利好预期，由于 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期和关税预期升温，利好 金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：近期金价维持强势运行，海外金价拉升至 3350 美元一线，国内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal futures price may rebound in the short - term as the market sentiment stabilizes. The rise of US soybean futures price, driven by the increase in the expected demand for US soybean crushing due to the US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill and the market's focus on the weather - related yield adjustment from July to August, has led to a rise in the cost of imported soybeans in China [6]. - The palm oil futures price shows a short - term strong and volatile trend. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which in turn boosts the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill also boosts the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector, indirectly benefiting palm oil [8]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill includes measures to restrict biofuels from North American sources, which drives up the US soybean oil futures price, increasing the expected demand for US soybean crushing and thus the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the US soybean planting area is determined, the market focuses on the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. With the stabilization of market sentiment, the soybean meal futures price may rebound [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which has a positive impact on the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill on July 1 boosts the US soybean oil futures price, enhancing the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector and indirectly benefiting palm oil. The obvious return of short - term funds makes the palm oil futures price trend strongly and volatile [8].