Group 1: Report Core Viewpoints - Last night, copper prices were weak, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling to the 96,000 level. Today, it rebounded and closed at the 98,000 level. Due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday and large short - term gains, there was strong willingness to take profits, causing a sharp drop. Today's improved domestic macro - atmosphere and strong buying support led to a continuous rebound. The narrowing of the spot discount indicated increased industrial procurement willingness. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure at the 100,000 level [6]. - Aluminum prices oscillated downward last night and rebounded today, recovering the previous night's losses, with overall declining positions. Near the New Year's Day holiday, the rising willingness of funds to take profits and the sharp fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals at high levels affected aluminum prices. High aluminum prices suppressed downstream consumption, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. - Last night, non - ferrous metals tumbled collectively, but nickel prices showed resistance. Today, non - ferrous and precious metals rebounded, and nickel prices increased significantly with rising positions. Since late December, nickel prices have rebounded from the 110,000 level to the 130,000 level, and have been significantly stronger than the non - ferrous sector in recent days, mainly driven by the policy expectations of Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure at the highs in March this year and October last year [8]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics Copper - In the North China electrolytic copper spot market, despite the sharp decline in copper prices, demand did not improve significantly as most downstream enterprises were on holiday for New Year's Day or had completed pre - holiday stockpiling. On December 29, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 224,300 tons, up 22,100 tons from the 25th and 44,300 tons from the 22nd [10]. Aluminum - On December 29, 2025, the Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council announced that from January 1, 2026, the import tariff rates and tariff items of some commodities would be adjusted. The tariffs on unwrought aluminum alloy (tariff number 76012000) and aluminum scrap (tariff number 76020000) remained unchanged compared with 2025. On December 29, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 638,000 tons, up 26,000 tons from the 25th and 50,000 tons from the 22nd [10]. Nickel - On December 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 128,400 - 136,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 132,550 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 7,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 7,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. Group 3: Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][12][13]. Aluminum - The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. Nickel - The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - advantage in the asphalt market has weakened, and it is expected that the asphalt futures will maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [1][5] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Details Market Performance - Yesterday, the asphalt futures 2602 contract showed a volatile consolidation trend, with the lowest intraday price reaching 2967 yuan/ton and the closing price at 3008 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.23%. The position decreased slightly by 15,886 lots to 141,333 lots [2] Changes in Long and Short Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 seats in the long - short position list of the asphalt futures 2602 contract both decreased. The long positions decreased by 8,929 lots to 94,739 lots, and the short positions decreased by 13,876 lots to 97,197 lots. The reduction in short positions exceeded that of long positions, causing the net short position to shrink to 2,458 lots [2] Changes in Long Positions of Top 20 Seats - Among the top 20 long seats, 15 reduced their long positions. 4 seats reduced more than 1,000 lots, including Guotai Junan Futures, CITIC Futures, Galaxy Futures, and Guotou Futures, with decreases of 2,051 lots, 2,369 lots, 1,633 lots, and 2,062 lots respectively. 7 seats reduced between 100 and 1,000 lots, and the remaining 4 seats reduced less than 100 lots [3] Changes in Short Positions of Top 20 Seats - Among the top 20 short seats, 14 reduced their short positions. 6 seats reduced more than 1,000 lots, including Galaxy Futures, Dongzheng Futures, CITIC Futures, Huatai Futures, Qiankun Futures, and Guotou Futures, with decreases of 1,306 lots, 1,204 lots, 3,632 lots, 1,502 lots, 4,189 lots, and 2,156 lots respectively. 8 seats reduced between 100 and 1,000 lots [4] Multi - to - Short and Short - to - Long Operations - 3 seats carried out multi - to - short operations, including Guotai Junan Futures, Dadi Futures, and GF Futures, which reflects that traders on these seats believe the power for the asphalt to stabilize and rebound in the future is insufficient. Only 1 seat, Dongzheng Futures, carried out short - to - long operations, indicating that traders on this seat think the asphalt is expected to rebound again [4][5]

宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 30 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆期价低位震荡，一方面面临南美新季大豆丰产预期的压制，；另一方面，美豆出口销 售相对低迷，年度迄今出口总量仍处于多年低位。国内市场多空因素交织。供应端整体宽松，港口大 豆及豆粕库存处于高位，但进口成本高企为价格提供了底部支撑，且市场对一季度供应可能存在缺口 的预期依然存在。合约间呈现明显的近强远弱结构，近月合约受成本支撑及现货偏紧预期影响相对坚 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short, medium and intraday terms, with a weak - downward trend in the intraday. The current situation is weak, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the current situation is weak and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Construction steel mills have started to resume production, with continuous but limited increase in output, which is still at a relatively low level. Low supply supports the steel price, but the upward expectation remains unchanged, so subsequent changes should be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with high - frequency demand indicators falling again and remaining at a low level in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and demand continues to decline seasonally, which still puts pressure on the steel price. In general, rebar supply is increasing while demand is seasonally weakening, with a relatively weak fundamental situation. The steel price in the off - season is under continuous pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support, and the steel price is expected to continue the oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol futures are expected to run with a bias towards strength, showing an oscillating pattern in the short - term (within a week), medium - term (two weeks to a month), and a bias towards strength intraday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be oscillating in the short and medium - term, and biased towards strength intraday, with a reference view of running with a bias towards strength [1]. - The domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the futures price closing slightly higher, and are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday [5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - The methanol futures' rebound was hindered and fell into a callback due to the increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the significant correction of domestic coal futures prices [5]. - Although the port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they are still at a high level, and the downstream demand improvement is insufficient, with the olefin market profit weakening [5]. - With the emergence of long - short divergence, the market situation is formed [5].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures (SC2602) will run weakly in the short - term and mid - term, showing an overall trend of weakening after a period of shock. The short - term and mid - term trends are both "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak", with the reference view being "weak operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price and Trend - The short - term (within one week) and mid - term (two weeks to one month) trends of crude oil 2602 are "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak". The reference view is that it will operate weakly [1]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the rebound of oil prices. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, with an estimated cumulative seizure of about 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November, and the number of tankers going to Venezuela has decreased, leading to concerns about a global supply gap and pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market. - After the short - term positive factors are digested, the domestic crude oil futures prices stabilized in a shock on the night session of Monday, and the futures prices gave back their gains. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures will operate weakly in a shock on Tuesday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of domestic thermal coal has been continuously weakening in December 2025, with the decline exceeding expectations. The closing price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port on December 25 was 682 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton. The coal market is dragged down by unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain remains high, and the thermal coal price is running weakly. Future stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents - **Price and Market Trend**: As of December 25, 2025, the 5500K thermal coal closing price at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan week - on - week, and it continued to be weak after breaking below 700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Driving Logic**: The weak coal market is mainly due to unexpectedly weak demand. The overall pattern of stable supply and weak demand leads to high coal inventories in the industrial chain, resulting in the weak operation of thermal coal prices [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The stabilization of thermal coal prices is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of weakness [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: In the short - term and medium - term, it will oscillate, and intraday it will be weak. It is expected to run weakly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As domestic rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan enter the off - season, the supply pressure of domestic whole latex has significantly decreased. The domestic automobile production and sales data in the downstream of the rubber market are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in November are better than expected. After Thailand and Cambodia declared a truce, geopolitical disturbances have weakened. After the positive factors are digested, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend in the night session on Monday, and the futures price closed slightly lower. It is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: In the short - term and medium - term, it will oscillate, and intraday it will be weak. It is expected to run weakly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The domestic automobile production and sales data in the downstream of the rubber market are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in November are better than expected. However, the potential supply pressure is prominent, weakening the market driving force. As the crude oil futures price has fallen under pressure, the cost support has weakened. The domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and weak trend in the night session on Monday, and the futures price closed slightly lower. It is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to trade in a high - level range, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, while the intraday trend is slightly weak. The core logic is that bullish factors remain, keeping the ore price at a high level [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Port inventories are rising to high levels, steel mill production is stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption is at a low level. Although the profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, the pre - holiday restocking expectation is relatively positive. Overall, the iron ore price is running strongly at a high level due to spot structural contradictions and pre - holiday restocking expectations, but the demand is weakening and supply remains high, so the upward driving force is not strong, and the follow - up trend is cautiously optimistic, with attention paid to steel mill restocking [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is slightly weak, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that bullish factors remain and the ore price is at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakening. Port inventories are rising, steel mill production is stable, terminal ore consumption is low, and steel mill profitability improvement is limited. Pre - holiday restocking expectation is positive. Domestic port arrivals have slightly declined, while miner shipments have reached a new weekly high for the year. Overall, the ore supply remains high. The iron ore price is running strongly at a high level due to spot structural contradictions and restocking expectations, but the fundamentals are weakening and the upward driving force is not strong, with attention on steel mill restocking [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is oscillating with a slight upward bias. For IH2603, it is expected to be oscillating in the short - and medium - term, and showing a slight upward trend intraday. For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is slightly upward, and the medium - term view is oscillating, with an overall view of oscillating with a slight upward bias [1][5]. - In the short term, the stock index will maintain range - bound oscillations. Although it faced technical resistance when approaching the previous high and pulled back after rising, in the long run, the positive policy expectations and the net inflow of funds will support the stock index. As policy expectations ferment and the demand for long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite in the stock market will gradually rise [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillating | Oscillating | Slightly upward | Oscillating with a slight upward bias | Unchanged positive policy expectations and net inflow of funds [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Slightly upward; **Medium - term View**: Oscillating; **Reference View**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias - **Core Logic**: The stock indexes oscillated and declined yesterday. The total trading volume of the stock market was 2157.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.4 billion yuan from the previous day. As the stock index approached the previous high, it faced technical resistance and pulled back after rising. In the short term, attention should be paid to the pace of capital entry. In the long term, positive policy expectations and the net inflow of funds support the stock index. As policy expectations ferment and the demand for long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite in the stock market will gradually rise [5].