1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking willingness and long - term policy benefit expectation fermentation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking willingness and long - term policy benefit expectation fermentation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and declined, with the whole - day trading volume of 316.66 billion yuan in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets, an increase of 76.37 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The short - term decline is due to large previous increases, significant valuation increases, and insufficient confidence of investors to chase up. In the long - term, there is strong support from macro - policy benefits and net capital inflows. The key window period for policy introduction is expected to be in October. However, due to significant valuation increases of some stocks, there is still profit - taking pressure, resulting in short - term technical adjustment pressure on the stock index. The follow - up focus is on the game between capital profit - taking rhythm and policy expectation fermentation [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is to expect a sideways movement, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the intraday view is a slightly weak sideways movement. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach due to the short - term strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions after the interest rate cut [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is a sideways movement, the medium - term view is an upward trend (with a correction in doc 5 to a sideways movement), and the intraday view is a slightly weak sideways movement. It is also recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the market cashed in on pre - interest - rate - cut benefits, and the industry is entering the peak season which may support the price [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: The gold price opened high and then declined last night and then moved sideways. After the September interest rate cut, the short - term capital market showed a reverse trend of cashing in on the benefits, with the US dollar index bottoming out and rising, the gold price rising and then falling, and the US stock market oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Market Pricing**: The gold market had fully priced in three interest rate cuts within the year in early September and had a large increase, leading to a strong willingness of short - term long - position holders to close their positions [3]. - **Fed's Stance**: According to the dot plot, the Fed is highly divided, with some believing there will be no more interest rate cuts this year and others expecting two more cuts [3]. - **Key Level**: Keep an eye on the resistance at the $3700 level for New York gold [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: The copper price decreased with a reduction in positions yesterday afternoon and maintained a sideways movement last night, with the open interest continuously declining, which is considered a result of the market cashing in on pre - interest - rate - cut benefits [5]. - **Macro Aspect**: After the September FOMC meeting, the interest rate was cut by 25 basis points, and the dot plot shows that most officials expect another 50 - basis - point cut by the end of 2025, which is in line with market expectations [5]. - **Industry Aspect**: In September, the copper price rose, and downstream buyers were more inclined to wait and see. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous sideways range, leading to a strong willingness of short - term long - position holders to close their positions. As the short - term macro disturbances decrease and the industry enters the peak season, downstream demand may support the futures price. After the short - term futures price fell below the 80,000 - yuan mark with a reduction in positions, the market attention declined, and the price is expected to move sideways [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products on September 19, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data for power coal from September 12 to September 18, 2025, is presented. On September 18, the basis was - 102.4 yuan/ton, showing a narrowing trend compared to previous days [1][2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are provided. For example, on September 18, the basis of INE crude oil was 5.25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are given. For instance, on September 18, the basis of rubber was - 770 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., and inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are presented [10]. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, and 9(10) - month minus 5 - month spreads [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, and coke to coking coal, as well as the difference between rebar and hot - rolled coil from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are shown [20]. - **Basis**: Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are presented [21]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are provided [28]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 18, 2025, are presented [33]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are given [38]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., are provided [38]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads such as the ratio of soybeans to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, and the difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are presented [38]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are provided [50]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including the difference between the next - month contract and the current - month contract and the next - quarter contract and the current - quarter contract, are presented [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着近日美联储 9 月降息预期兑现以后，本周四夜盘国内甲醇期 货 2601 合约维持震荡偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved, but downstream industries have not improved, and demand concerns remain. With the cost rising, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively: short - term is sideways, medium - term is sideways, and intraday is sideways and weak. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are improving, and steel prices continue to fluctuate [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved. Weekly rebar production has continued to decline, and the intensity of production cuts during the peak season needs to be tracked. Inventory has significantly increased from a low level, so the positive effect of supply is not strong. Meanwhile, rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency demand indicators rising from a low level, but downstream industries have not improved, and the demand during the peak season is lackluster. With the cost rising, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to demand performance [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局在变，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，矿石终端消耗小幅回升，叠加节前钢厂补库，需求表现尚可，给予矿 价支撑，但下游钢市矛盾在累积，且钢材利润持续收缩，矿石需求韧性趋弱。相反，国内港口到货环 比下降，但海外矿商发运则是大增并创下年内单周新高，海外供应显著回升，而内矿供应也在恢复， 矿石供应 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak; Overall: weakly running [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The dot - plot shows that there will be two more rate cuts in Q4 2025 and only one in 2026, slower than the market's current pricing. With the fulfillment of previous bullish expectations and the rubber market in a state of increasing supply, the RU 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday night, with the price slightly down 0.99% to 15475 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak; Overall: weakly running [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The dot - plot shows that there will be two more rate cuts in Q4 2025 and only one in 2026, slower than the market's current pricing. After the previous bullish expectations were fulfilled, the BR 2511 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday night, with the price slightly down 0.26% to 11425 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of major agricultural futures in the commodity market, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, are mainly in a state of shock, with a short - term weakening tendency [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade may falsify the long - term supply gap. The domestic soybean market trading logic revolves around the weak industrial chain, with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern for soybean meal. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect its price [5][7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [8][7]. - **Core Logic**: The EPA's biofuel proposal has high uncertainty within 45 days. The past actions of President Trump and the impact of Sino - US trade prospects on the soybean market also affect soybean oil. Additionally, factors like US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory play roles [8][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [9][7]. - **Core Logic**: Although rainfall in East Malaysia may disrupt supply in the short - term and export data is stable, the peak production season in the producing areas restricts upward movement. Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough may strengthen long - term demand support. In the domestic market, import profit is inverted, near - month arrivals are high, downstream demand is limited, and inventory is increasing [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 18, 2025, the stock indexes fluctuated and declined throughout the day, with the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets having a total turnover of 3166.6 billion yuan, a significant increase of 763.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The decline was mainly due to large stock price increases and significant valuation improvements, causing investors to lose confidence in chasing prices and increasing their willingness to take profits. [3] - In the medium to long term, stock indexes are strongly supported by favorable macro - policies and net inflows of funds. Given the weak credit and inflation data in August and the slowdown in consumption growth, there is a high expectation of policies to stabilize demand, with the key window period for policy introduction expected to be in October. The significant increase in non - bank deposits in July and August and the high - level operation of margin trading balances indicate continuous inflows of incremental funds into the stock market. [3] - However, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks, there is still a willingness among profitable funds to take profits, leading to short - term technical adjustment pressure on stock indexes. The subsequent focus should be on the game between the rhythm of profit - taking and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, stock indexes are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. [3] - Currently, the implied volatility of options has increased. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indexes, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 18, 2025, most ETFs and stock indexes declined, except for the科创 50ETF and the 易方达科创 50ETF, which rose by 0.69% and 0.64% respectively. For example, the 50ETF fell 1.30% to 3.048, and the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.27% to 4.594. [5] - The trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For instance, the trading volume PCR of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options was 78.41 (previous day: 87.34), and the open - interest PCR was 73.26 (previous day: 76.66). [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in September or October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets were provided for different options. For example, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options in September 2025 was 19.35%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 15.12%. [7] 3.2 Relevant Charts - Multiple charts were presented for different types of options, including the trend of the underlying asset, volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. For example, for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options, there were charts showing its trend, volatility, trading volume PCR, etc. [9][11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening volatility, and a significant decline on Thursday. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted. The rubber market has shifted to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening volatility, and a slight decline on Thursday. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, downward volatility, and a slight decline on Thursday. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market has shifted to a weak supply - demand fundamental. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.44 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.96 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.27 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a week - on - week increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a week - on - week increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [9]. - In the terminal retail segment, in August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [10]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease from July and a 35% increase from 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 81.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.52%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%, and a slight increase of 2.21% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1,919,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56,000 tons, and a significant increase of 126,700 tons compared with 1,792,600 tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.30%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 79.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.81%, with no week - on - week change. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% [11]. - As of September 12, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 59 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 138 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1,267,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 376,200 tons, and a significant increase of 365,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The port methanol inventory in East China reached 808,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 98,200 tons, and the port methanol inventory in South China reached 459,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,500 tons. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 342,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,900 tons, and a significant decrease of 88,400 tons compared with 431,000 tons in the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [14]. - As of September 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 81,844 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 20,584 contracts and a significant decrease of 40,219 contracts or 32.95% compared with the August average of 122,063 contracts. As of September 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 205,775 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 34,954 contracts and a slight increase of 3,457 contracts or 1.71% compared with the August average of 202,318 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly week - on - week [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,050 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,570 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | + 210 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,285 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,346 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | - 61 yuan/ton | + 13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 466.3 yuan/barrel | + 0.5 yuan/barrel | 491.8 yuan/barrel | - 7.5 yuan/barrel | - 25.5 yuan/barrel | + 8.0 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][21] - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][36] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [45][47][49]