Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1] - The intraday view of financial futures index stock sectors (TL, T, TF, TS) is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly conduct low - level oscillatory consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are based on the situation that long - term interest rate cut expectations still exist while the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - Last Friday, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined, while 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and rose [5] - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market [5] - In the long run, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong because the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts is not high [5] - The inflation data in August was still weak. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate rebound in inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be intensified in the fourth quarter, which will pose supply - side pressure on treasury bonds [5] - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning bond - buying funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The reference view for power coal is "oscillation" in the short - term and medium - term. The price of domestic power coal has been weakly stable this week. As of September 11, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The coal price is driven by weak operation due to the seasonal decline in power plant coal consumption and the lack of obvious improvement in non - power coal demand. The fundamentals of power coal are weakening in the off - season, and the market bearish sentiment still exists. The opportunity for the coal price to stop falling and stabilize may lie in the winter storage replenishment of terminal power plants [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Condition - As of September 11, the quotation of 5500K power coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [4] Supply - side Situation - The impact of the September 3 parade on coal mine production has basically faded. After entering the new natural month, the power coal output has gradually returned to the pre - parade level, and the main producing area coal mines maintain normal production. The impact of "anti - involution" has not been further released [4] Demand - side Situation - As of the week of September 4, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 245.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.7 million tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 355.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons. The domestic power coal demand has significantly declined compared with the summer peak [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report implies a bearish outlook for the styrene industry, suggesting that the styrene futures 2510 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [7]. 2. Core View of the Report - The cost support for styrene from upstream pure benzene is weakening, while the domestic styrene production capacity utilization rate is rising, output is slightly increasing, and downstream consumption is sluggish. With only rigid demand support, port inventories have slightly increased, and future demand needs improvement. Due to these bearish industry factors, the styrene futures 2510 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene's Weak Impact on Styrene Cost Support - The domestic pure benzene supply - demand pattern is weak. External import pressure is high. From January to June 2025, South Korea's pure benzene exports to the US decreased by 450,000 tons (a 90% drop), while exports to China increased by 620,000 tons (a 79% increase). China's cumulative pure benzene imports in the first half of 2025 were 2.7306 million tons, a 56.19% increase year - on - year. In July, the single - month import volume returned to 500,000 tons, and the annual import volume may exceed 5 million tons [3]. - Domestic pure benzene production is growing. As of the end of August, the domestic petroleum benzene capacity utilization rate was 79.18%, a slight 0.19 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, and the output was 451,900 tons, a 0.24% increase month - on - month. Given the large future supply pressure, the weak price trend of pure benzene is hard to change, and its cost support for styrene is weakening [3]. Rising Supply Pressure of Styrene - In August 2025, China's styrene plant capacity utilization rate was about 79.95%, a 1.31% increase month - on - month, and the monthly output was expected to be 1.6217 million tons, a 1.31% increase month - on - month [4]. - As of September 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese styrene plants was 79.74%, a 1.67% increase week - on - week, with a total output of 376,500 tons, a 0.79 - thousand - ton increase week - on - week and a 2.14% increase month - on - month. In September, although there are maintenance plans for some enterprises, the supply increase from new device commissioning and the maintenance loss are basically balanced, and the output may remain stable [4]. Downstream Demand Needs Improvement - Since September, domestic styrene downstream demand has been mainly supported by rigid demand, showing relative stability but lacking incremental momentum. The operating rates of some downstream products such as EPS, PS, ABS, and styrene - butadiene rubber have increased year - on - year, but the profitability of downstream enterprises is generally under pressure, mostly at the break - even point [5]. - Downstream procurement is mainly for rigid replenishment, with low initiative to stock up, having limited impact on market boosting. As of early September 2025, the total sample inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu was 196,500 tons, a 9.78% increase week - on - week. The commercial inventory was 96,500 tons, a 14.88% increase week - on - week. In the short term, the demand side is difficult to improve significantly [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, Shanghai copper increased in position and rose, standing above the 80,000 mark, and LME copper stood above the $10,000 mark. Today, copper prices maintained a strong operation, with the position volume continuing to rise. The inflation in the US in August met expectations, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the overall non - ferrous metals rose. The domestic industrial peak season provided stronger support for the futures price. Technically, the futures price increased in position and rose above the 80,000 mark, with strong upward momentum [5]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, Shanghai aluminum increased in position and rose, and maintained a strong operation today, with the main futures price standing above the 21,000 mark. The overseas interest rate cut expectation increased, pushing up the non - ferrous metals sector. There was a concentrated pick - up phenomenon in LME warehouses, leading to a tight regional supply, making the aluminum price stronger than the non - ferrous metals sector. Technically, the aluminum price broke through the oscillation high since July, with strong upward momentum [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel decreased in position and fell. The overseas interest rate cut expectation increased, pushing up the non - ferrous metals sector. The domestic nickel ore port inventory and the SHFE nickel inventory continued to rise, which was negative for the nickel price. In the short term, the macro - environment promoted the general rise of non - ferrous metals, and the nickel price might have a low - level rebound trend. The willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions was strong. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the August high [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Enterprises that reduced or stopped production due to environmental inspections in early September have fully resumed production. After the copper price rose this week, the supply in the recycled copper raw material market increased. The operating rate of SMM's scrap - produced anode plate enterprises this week was 51.89%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points. It is expected to continue to rise by 3.84 percentage points to 55.73% next week [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 12, the prices of refined nickel in the Shanghai market were as follows: Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 124,250 - 124,450 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was 122,550 - 122,650 yuan/ton, up 1,720 yuan/ton; nickel beans were 124,550 - 124,650 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending September 12, the combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1336 million tons, a weekly increase of 33,200 tons per day. The latest ton - coke profit dropped by 29 yuan per ton to 35 yuan per ton due to the implementation of coke price cuts. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4055 million tons, a weekly increase of 117,100 tons per day, returning to the pre - parade production level. The total coke inventory increased slightly to 9.0624 million tons, mainly accumulating in the steel - mill segment. The market has mixed factors, and coke is oscillating within a range. Attention should be paid to potential new benefits from "stable growth" and "anti - involution" policies [5][35]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending September 12, the daily raw - coal output of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 1.856 million tons, a weekly increase of 155,000 tons, still 170,000 tons lower than the same period last year after the resumption of mine production post - parade; the daily clean - coal output was 728,000 tons, a weekly increase of 35,000 tons and 60,000 tons lower year - on - year. The combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1336 million tons, a weekly increase of 33,200 tons per day. The coking - coal inventory at all industrial - chain links decreased. The latest total inventory was 22.0288 million tons, a weekly decrease of 565,200 tons. The main de - stocking segment was independent coking plants, with an inventory decrease of 365,100 tons to 8.8354 million tons. The decline in downstream inventory was due to the weakening of the spot - market atmosphere and increased wait - and - see sentiment on the demand side. The coking - coal supply has gradually stabilized after the previous "anti - involution" capacity verification. Short - term demand faces some pressure due to the shrinking steel - mill profits. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and "stable growth" support market sentiment. The coking - coal main contract is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to future policy changes [6][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Ministry of Natural Resources encourages market - based approaches to revitalize idle land. On September 11, Kong Weidong, the director of the Department of Natural Resources Development and Utilization of the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated that the ministry will guide pilot areas for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation to explore and promote the orderly flow and efficient allocation of land factors. It will refine the criteria for identifying inefficient land, promote the withdrawal of inefficient urban land, and encourage market - based revitalization of idle land [8]. - Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal on September 12. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal (A27.5, V33, S1.1, G75, Mt4.0) was $57.4 per ton, and all 64,000 tons on offer were unsold [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,520 yuan, a weekly decrease of 3.18%, a monthly decrease of 3.18%, an annual decrease of 10.06%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,430 yuan, a weekly increase of 0.70%, a monthly decrease of 3.38%, an annual decrease of 11.73%, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.33% [10]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,140 yuan, a weekly decrease of 3.39%, a monthly decrease of 3.39%, an annual decrease of 3.39%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.57%. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,510 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1.95%, a monthly decrease of 4.43%, an annual increase of 1.34%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.58%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,550 yuan, with no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 4.91%, an annual increase of 1.31%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40% [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,625.5 yuan, with a gain of 0.43%. The highest price was 1,640.5 yuan, the lowest was 1,595.0 yuan, the trading volume was 27,338 lots, an increase of 4,745 lots, and the open interest was 47,597 lots, an increase of 658 lots [14]. - The closing price of the active coking - coal futures contract was 1,144.5 yuan, with a gain of 0.88%. The highest price was 1,152.0 yuan, the lowest was 1,125.0 yuan, the trading volume was 959,111 lots, a decrease of 105,254 lots, and the open interest was 697,002 lots, a decrease of 21,073 lots [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides various charts showing the inventory of coke (including independent coking plants, steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory) and coking coal (including mine - mouth, ports, steel mills, and independent coking plants), as well as other relevant industry data such as domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal screw - thread steel procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [15][22][28] 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is that it will oscillate within a range due to mixed market factors. Attention should be paid to potential new benefits from "stable growth" and "anti - involution" policies [35]. - The outlook for coking coal is that it will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Although the supply has stabilized, short - term demand faces pressure, and policy expectations support market sentiment. Attention should be paid to future policy changes [36].

Core View - Today, the trends of Treasury bond futures were divergent. The 2-year Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined slightly, while the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose. Currently, Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. In the medium and long term, there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, in the short term, due to the low necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is not strong. The inflation data in August remained weak. Subsequently, the policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand, promoting a moderate recovery of inflation. It is expected that fiscal policy will be intensified in the fourth quarter, thus exerting supply-side pressure on Treasury bonds. The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning off bond-buying funds and suppressing the demand side of Treasury bonds, showing the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly undergo low-level oscillatory consolidation in the short term [2] Industry News and Related Charts - On September 12, the People's Bank of China announced that it carried out 230 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tendering, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 188.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net injection of 41.7 billion yuan [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment information, financial news, and stock market trends, offering insights into the economic and market conditions across various sectors [1][2][14][32]. - Different institutions have diverse outlooks on the bond market. Some believe that after continuous adjustments, bond risks are released, and there may be a more optimistic outlook, while others focus on factors such as fiscal policy and inflation in relation to the bond market [28][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in August 2025 was 49.4%, a slight increase from the previous month, while non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, also up from the previous month [1]. - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively, with M1 showing a significant year - on - year improvement [1]. - In August 2025, CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai American Chamber of Commerce's report shows that the Chinese government's market - opening efforts have improved the business environment, with 71% of surveyed enterprises profitable in 2024, up from 66% in 2023 [2]. - The proportion of US companies choosing the US as an investment transfer destination decreased by 4 percentage points to 18% last year, indicating that the "manufacturing回流" policy had limited effect [2]. - China will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests in response to Mexico's potential tariff hikes [2]. - The US canceled tariffs on most Brazilian pulp exports on September 5 [2]. - US economic data shows that the 8 - month CPI was in line with expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 2021, leading traders to expect three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures closed mixed. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut and a decline in confidence in US dollar assets are driving factors [4]. - Gold has become the top reserve asset for global central banks, with its proportion in reserves exceeding US Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [5]. - In September, precious metal prices reached new highs both internationally and domestically, attracting over 100 billion yuan in funds to the domestic gold futures market [5]. - Some online gold repurchase businesses have been suspended, possibly due to regulatory and risk - control reasons [5]. - Barrick Gold plans to sell a Canadian gold mine for up to $1.1 billion [5]. - In July, Chile's state - owned copper company's copper production increased by 6.4% year - on - year, while the production of the Collahuasi mine decreased by 27.2% [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Heavy rain in Indonesia has affected coal production and transportation, potentially narrowing the price gap between domestic and imported coal. September's coal imports are expected to remain above 40 million tons [8]. - Vale received an operating license for a 20 - million - ton iron ore project in Brazil [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Ningde Times plans to resume production at the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine, aiming for full - load production and cost - reduction measures [9]. - International oil prices fell due to increased supply and weak demand. OPEC + production increased in August, and US inventories reached a new high [9]. - The IEA expects global oil supply to grow faster than expected this year and a potential surplus in 2026 [9]. - Russia's ESPO crude oil exports from the Kozmino port will decrease from 4.2 million tons in August to 4 million tons in September [11]. - The European Central Bank predicts that the oil price in 2025 will be $69.7 per barrel [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - India's sugar production in 2025 - 26 is estimated to be 34.9 million tons [13]. - In August, US coffee imports from Brazil decreased significantly, while Germany became the largest overseas market for Brazilian coffee [13]. - Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 180 million tons, with 19% of the soybeans pre - sold [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 11, the central bank conducted 292 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan [14]. 3.3.2 Key News - The market expects the central bank to restart treasury bond trading operations, with a more favorable view of the fourth - quarter restart [15]. - The US economic data has led traders to expect three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year [15]. - Gold has become the top reserve asset for global central banks [16]. - China will conduct a two - year factor market reform pilot in 10 regions [16]. - China will take measures to safeguard its rights and interests in response to Mexico's potential tariff hikes [16]. - The government will implement policies to stabilize foreign trade [17]. - 27 provinces plan to issue about 777.1 billion yuan of local bonds in September, with some expanding the use of special bonds to government investment funds [17]. - The North - Exchange convertible bond market opened this week, with light trading volume [17]. - Most bank wealth management companies achieved net inflows in August, with a total increase of about 285.7 billion yuan in management scale [18]. - The average 7 - day annualized yield of money market funds is approaching 1%, with 80 products having yields below 1% [18]. - The reform and restructuring of rural banks are accelerating [18]. - Bank wealth management products are attracting deposits, with 12 of the top 14 wealth management companies achieving net growth in August [19]. - The bond market has experienced a decline, mainly due to institutional behavior and low bond yields [19]. - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, indicating that the inflation - reduction process is over [20]. - The US fiscal deficit in 2025 is higher than the same period in 2024 [20]. - There are various bond - related events, including debt restructuring, cancellation of bond issuance, and changes in corporate management [20]. - Some companies' credit ratings have been adjusted [21]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market showed a mixed trend, with short - and medium - term bonds strengthening and 30 - year bonds weakening [22]. - The exchange - traded bond market had some bonds rising and others falling [22]. - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [22]. - Money market interest rates showed different trends, with some rising and others falling [23]. - Bond issuance and bidding results showed different yields and multiples [24]. - European and US bond yields had different changes [25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, while the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar rose [27]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that bond risks have been released, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield may return to 1.6% [28]. - CICC Fixed Income expects the low - inflation pattern to continue in the short term and suggests seizing bond trading opportunities [28]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market adjustment is due to institutional behavior and suggests looking for opportunities after October [29]. - Changjiang Fixed Income expects the social financing growth rate to peak and the bond market to remain weakly volatile [30]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares rose significantly, with over 4200 stocks rising, and the ChiNext Index returned to 3000 points [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, with pharmaceutical stocks weak and chip and non - ferrous sectors performing well [33]. - The continuous rise of the ChiNext Index is related to its heavy - weight stocks, especially in the AI + direction [33].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term outlooks being oscillatory and the intraday view being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract closed slightly lower by 0.13% to 15,860 yuan/ton [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has improved the macro - environment. Although it's the peak tapping season in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, resulting in less supply pressure than expected. Meanwhile, the domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry remains prosperous, and the export growth rate has rebounded, providing demand - side support [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract closed slightly lower by 0.30% to 11,595 yuan/ton [7]. - **Driving Factors**: The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has improved the macro - sentiment. The downstream tire industry remains highly prosperous, with good export performance and strong domestic auto market production and sales. However, the intraday trend was affected by the oscillatory and weak performance of domestic and international crude oil futures on Thursday night [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on Friday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke 2601 contracts, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic for coking coal is that multiple and short factors are intertwined, leading to an oscillatory operation. For coke, it is due to strong expectations but weak reality, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Change**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1140.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.4% [5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestically, coking coal production has been suppressed, but the lack of further production - cut expectations has cooled the optimistic sentiment in the futures market, and the demand - dragging logic is emerging. However, the "anti - involution" news still causes occasional disturbances, creating resistance to the downward movement of coking coal futures. As a result, the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the main contract oscillates within a range [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Change**: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.18%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.70% [6]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation of coke has not improved significantly. After the September 3 parade, coke enterprises and steel mills gradually resumed production, but due to the shrinking profits of downstream steel mills, concerns on the demand side are emerging. In terms of news, the "anti - involution" policy expectations still cause occasional disturbances, supporting coke to maintain an oscillatory operation for the time being. Attention should be paid to whether specific policies will be introduced later [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for September 12, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Thermal Coal - The table shows the basis, 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads of thermal coal from September 5 to September 11, 2025. The basis on September 11 was - 126.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads were all 0.0 [2] Group 3: Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on the basis of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented from September 5 to September 11, 2025. For example, on September 11, the basis of INE crude oil was 16.42 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1413 [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 5 to September 11, 2025 is provided. For instance, on September 11, the basis of rubber was - 1005 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - delivery spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was 30 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 5 to September 11, 2025 are shown. On September 11, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2352 yuan/ton [10] Group 4: Black Metals Inter - delivery spreads - The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 49.0 yuan/ton [19] Inter - commodity spreads - The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar minus hot - rolled coil from September 5 to September 11, 2025 are given. On September 11, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 3.88 [19] Basis - The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 5 to September 11, 2025 is provided. On September 11, the basis of rebar was 118.0 yuan/ton [20] Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 5 to September 11, 2025 is shown. On September 11, the basis of copper was 10 yuan/ton [27] London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 11, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (61.54) [34] Group 6: Agricultural Products Basis - The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from September 5 to September 11, 2025 is provided. On September 11, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 115 yuan/ton [39] Inter - delivery spreads - The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads of various agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 47 yuan/ton [39] Inter - commodity spreads - The ratios and spreads such as soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, soybean meal minus rapeseed meal, soybean oil minus palm oil, rapeseed oil minus soybean oil, and corn minus corn starch from September 5 to September 11, 2025 are shown. On September 11, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.79 [39] Group 7: Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 5 to September 11, 2025 is provided. On September 11, the basis of CSI 300 was - 13.97 [51] Inter - delivery spreads - The spreads of next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 53.8 [53]