Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that currently, the upward and downward driving forces of bond futures are both limited. The long - term monetary policy is inclined to be loose with the expectation of policy rate cuts, providing strong support. However, the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm will likely be steady, limiting the short - term rebound momentum, and the supply pressure of dense bond issuance in the first quarter of next year restricts the upward space. So, bond futures are expected to be mainly in a volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Catalog: Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is the low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. Catalog: Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures were in a narrow - range volatile consolidation yesterday. They are in a stage where both upward and downward driving forces are limited. Long - term monetary policy is loose with rate cut expectations for support, but the central bank's cautious rate - cut rhythm and the supply pressure of bond issuance in the first quarter of next year restrict the upward space, so they are expected to be volatile in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For both gold and copper in the short - term, they are expected to be in a volatile state; in the medium - term, they are expected to be strong; and for the day, they are expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Trend Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: wait - and - see [1]. - **Core Logic**: The recovery of liquidity is beneficial to the gold price, but the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions before the holiday is strong. After the Christmas break, the short - term macro - atmosphere cooled down, and the willingness of bulls to close positions was strong. The dollar index's rebound also put pressure on the gold price. It is expected that funds will be cautious before the New Year's Day holiday, and the support of the 20 - day moving average for Shanghai gold can be observed [1][3]. Copper - **Trend Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: wait - and - see [1]. - **Core Logic**: The recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations have pushed up the copper price, but the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions before the holiday is strong. After Christmas, the copper price fluctuated significantly at a high level, and the trading volume decreased significantly. As the copper price dropped sharply, the spot discount narrowed, providing some support for the copper price. Funds tend to be cautious before the holiday [1][4].

期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面表现偏弱，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂复产，产量迎来回升，但依旧位于低位，低供应给予钢价 支撑，但存回升预期，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标回落且继续 位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未好转，后续将延续季节性弱势，持续承压钢价。目前来看， 螺纹钢供应在回升，而 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level fluctuations, with the supply - demand contradiction accumulating and the upward driving force being limited [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation and weakening", and the overall view is "high - level fluctuation". The core logic is the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions and limited upward driving force [1]. 3.2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, with inventory rising at a high level. Steel mill production is stable, terminal consumption of ore remains at a low level, and the profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, so weak demand is likely to put pressure on ore prices, although steel mills have replenished stocks to some extent. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have declined slightly, while miners' shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall, ore supply remains high. With the fermentation of positive factors, the ore price has returned to a high level, but the demand is weakening and supply is high, so the price will maintain a high - level fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 2026 national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement is released, with changes in subsidy targets and amounts [2][13]. - Multiple factors are driving copper prices to new highs, and the price is expected to continue rising in 2026 [5]. - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials have significant differences. Further rate cuts may be appropriate if inflation declines as expected [3][15]. - The real - estate market has new policies, such as a reduction in the VAT rate for short - term housing sales, which will impact the market [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP grew at a 4.8% year - on - year rate, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI business activity in November 2025 was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The 2026 national subsidy plan for equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement is announced, including subsidy details for new cars and home appliances [2][13][14]. - The list of state - owned trading enterprises for tungsten, antimony, and silver exports from 2026 - 2027 is released [2]. - On December 30, 2025, there were 31 positive - basis and 37 negative - basis domestic commodity varieties [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On December 30, 2025, COMEX gold futures rose 0.20% to $4352.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.88% to $76.02 per ounce [4]. - Indonesia plans to cut nickel production in 2026 to balance supply and demand [5]. - Multiple factors are driving copper prices to new highs, and it's expected to continue rising in 2026 [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - December 2025, the price of coke (quasi - first - class metallurgical coke) decreased 2.79% month - on - month, hitting a new low since late October [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On December 30, 2025, WTI crude oil futures fell 0.22% to $57.95 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 0.24% to $61.34 per barrel [9]. - OPEC+ is expected to maintain the suspension of production increases [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Since 2025, domestic pig prices have declined, and it's expected to recover in the second half of 2026 [10]. - In 2025, the national grain purchase volume reached 830 billion jin, remaining stable for three years [10]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 30, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 312.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - The 2026 national subsidy plan for consumer goods replacement is released [2][13]. - The VAT rate for short - term housing sales is reduced from 5% to 3% starting in 2026 [14]. - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials have differences [3][15]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The sentiment of ultra - long bonds has recovered slightly, while other maturities are still weak. Bond futures show differentiation [20]. - Currency market interest rates mostly rose, with some short - term rates hitting new highs or lows [22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9901 on December 30, 2025, up 197 points [25]. - The US dollar index rose 0.22% to 98.22 in New York trading [25]. 3.3.5 Research Reports - Huatai Fixed - income believes that the bond market will remain volatile and slightly weak in Q1 2026 [26]. - CICC Fixed - income believes that the overall credit risk of central and state - owned real - estate enterprises is controllable in 2026 [26]. - CITIC Securities expects a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [27]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market had a narrow - range adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.86% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.74% [30]. - In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO scale ranked first globally. It's predicted that about 160 new stocks will be listed in 2026 [31].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-31 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美委局势骤然升级，是本次油价反弹最直接、最强劲的驱动力。美国特朗普政府对 委内瑞拉的施压力度空前加大，不仅下令"全面彻底封锁"进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，还计划扣 押更多委内瑞拉油轮。据估算，美国已 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Currently, treasury bond futures are in a stage where both upward and downward driving forces are limited. On one hand, the medium - to long - term monetary policy tends to be loose, and there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. On the other hand, the central bank's pace of interest rate cuts will likely maintain strong determination, the short - term rebound momentum driven by interest rate cut expectations is limited, and the supply pressure from the intensive issuance of treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year restricts the upward height of treasury bonds. Overall, treasury bond futures face pressure above and support below, and are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Industry News and Related Charts - On December 30, the People's Bank of China conducted 31.25 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 5.93 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net investment of 25.32 billion yuan [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillates with a daily decline of 0.10%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals are relatively weak, and the steel price in the off - season continues to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillates weakly with a daily decline of 0.33%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, the demand for hot - rolled coil is good, which improves the supply - demand pattern and supports the price. However, the demand toughness is questionable, and the inventory level is high. The upward driving force is expected to be weak. The subsequent trend will mainly continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillates at a high level with a daily decline of 0.44%, with decreasing volume and open interest. Currently, benefiting from the spot structural contradiction and the pre - holiday restocking expectation, iron ore runs strongly at a high level. However, the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high. The fundamentals continue to weaken, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Shanghai's first publicly disclosed residential land acquisition: Lingang Holdings had a plot of land repurchased by the land reserve center for 2.625 billion yuan. The land area is about 78,700 square meters, and the above - ground floor area is 188,800 square meters [7]. - In 2026, the "national subsidy" for the household appliance industry will continue, and the industry will enter a new cycle of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. The new round of subsidy policy is expected to promote market consumption structure upgrading and the transformation of industries such as household appliances and automobiles to be green, intelligent, and high - end [8]. - South Korea extended the term of the provisional anti - dumping duty on carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils from China and Japan by 5 months, from September 23, 2025, to June 22, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Location | Specification | Price | Price Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | Shanghai | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,270 | 0 | | Rebar | Tianjin | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,170 | 0 | | Rebar | National Average | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,326 | 1 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Shanghai | 4.75mm | 3,280 | 0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tianjin | 4.75mm | 3,190 | 10 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | National Average | 4.75mm | 3,294 | - 1 | | Tangshan Steel Billet | - | Q235 | 2,940 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap | - | ≥6mm | 2,080 | - 10 | | PB Powder | Shandong Port | - | 794 | - 5 | | Tangshan Iron Concentrate | - | Wet - basis | 782 | 0 | | Ocean Freight (Australia) | - | - | 8.80 | - 0.10 | | Ocean Freight (Brazil) | - | - | 23.28 | - 0.15 | | SGX Swap (Current Month) | - | - | 107.30 | 0.15 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | - | 108.85 | 1.00 | | Coil - Rebar Price Difference | - | - | 10 | 0 | | Rebar - Scrap Price Difference | - | - | 1,190 | 10 | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | - | 3,134 | - 0.10 | 3,148 | 3,128 | 635,547 | - 415,599 | 1,560,806 | 30,014 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | - | 3,282 | - 0.33 | 3,298 | 3,278 | 311,439 | - 200,543 | 1,283,319 | 7,022 | | Iron Ore | - | 789.0 | - 0.44 | 800.0 | 786.5 | 297,023 | - 164,905 | 613,601 | - 16,080 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: It includes the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: It includes the inventory of 45 ports in China, its seasonal changes, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [21][22][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: It includes the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand are weakly stable. The supply continues to rise but remains at a relatively low level, providing support for the steel price, but the positive effect is weakening. The demand continues to be weak and will seasonally decline, dragging down the steel price. The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, but the high inventory weakens the positive effect. The demand is good but the toughness is questionable. The upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The port inventory is rising. The demand is weakening while the supply remains high. The upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills [38].

Group 1: Report Core Viewpoints - Last night, copper prices were weak, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling to the 96,000 level. Today, it rebounded and closed at the 98,000 level. Due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday and large short - term gains, there was strong willingness to take profits, causing a sharp drop. Today's improved domestic macro - atmosphere and strong buying support led to a continuous rebound. The narrowing of the spot discount indicated increased industrial procurement willingness. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure at the 100,000 level [6]. - Aluminum prices oscillated downward last night and rebounded today, recovering the previous night's losses, with overall declining positions. Near the New Year's Day holiday, the rising willingness of funds to take profits and the sharp fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals at high levels affected aluminum prices. High aluminum prices suppressed downstream consumption, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. - Last night, non - ferrous metals tumbled collectively, but nickel prices showed resistance. Today, non - ferrous and precious metals rebounded, and nickel prices increased significantly with rising positions. Since late December, nickel prices have rebounded from the 110,000 level to the 130,000 level, and have been significantly stronger than the non - ferrous sector in recent days, mainly driven by the policy expectations of Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure at the highs in March this year and October last year [8]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics Copper - In the North China electrolytic copper spot market, despite the sharp decline in copper prices, demand did not improve significantly as most downstream enterprises were on holiday for New Year's Day or had completed pre - holiday stockpiling. On December 29, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 224,300 tons, up 22,100 tons from the 25th and 44,300 tons from the 22nd [10]. Aluminum - On December 29, 2025, the Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council announced that from January 1, 2026, the import tariff rates and tariff items of some commodities would be adjusted. The tariffs on unwrought aluminum alloy (tariff number 76012000) and aluminum scrap (tariff number 76020000) remained unchanged compared with 2025. On December 29, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 638,000 tons, up 26,000 tons from the 25th and 50,000 tons from the 22nd [10]. Nickel - On December 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 128,400 - 136,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 132,550 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 7,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 7,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. Group 3: Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][12][13]. Aluminum - The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. Nickel - The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - advantage in the asphalt market has weakened, and it is expected that the asphalt futures will maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [1][5] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Details Market Performance - Yesterday, the asphalt futures 2602 contract showed a volatile consolidation trend, with the lowest intraday price reaching 2967 yuan/ton and the closing price at 3008 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.23%. The position decreased slightly by 15,886 lots to 141,333 lots [2] Changes in Long and Short Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 seats in the long - short position list of the asphalt futures 2602 contract both decreased. The long positions decreased by 8,929 lots to 94,739 lots, and the short positions decreased by 13,876 lots to 97,197 lots. The reduction in short positions exceeded that of long positions, causing the net short position to shrink to 2,458 lots [2] Changes in Long Positions of Top 20 Seats - Among the top 20 long seats, 15 reduced their long positions. 4 seats reduced more than 1,000 lots, including Guotai Junan Futures, CITIC Futures, Galaxy Futures, and Guotou Futures, with decreases of 2,051 lots, 2,369 lots, 1,633 lots, and 2,062 lots respectively. 7 seats reduced between 100 and 1,000 lots, and the remaining 4 seats reduced less than 100 lots [3] Changes in Short Positions of Top 20 Seats - Among the top 20 short seats, 14 reduced their short positions. 6 seats reduced more than 1,000 lots, including Galaxy Futures, Dongzheng Futures, CITIC Futures, Huatai Futures, Qiankun Futures, and Guotou Futures, with decreases of 1,306 lots, 1,204 lots, 3,632 lots, 1,502 lots, 4,189 lots, and 2,156 lots respectively. 8 seats reduced between 100 and 1,000 lots [4] Multi - to - Short and Short - to - Long Operations - 3 seats carried out multi - to - short operations, including Guotai Junan Futures, Dadi Futures, and GF Futures, which reflects that traders on these seats believe the power for the asphalt to stabilize and rebound in the future is insufficient. Only 1 seat, Dongzheng Futures, carried out short - to - long operations, indicating that traders on this seat think the asphalt is expected to rebound again [4][5]