1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with refineries increasing production recently, which is expected to further increase supply pressure next week. The planned total production of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The construction of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes is all below the historical average, although there are slight increases in some areas [7]. - The cost of asphalt is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47% [7]. - The inventory of asphalt is decreasing. The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; and the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33% [7]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The price of asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3143 - 3189 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the cost is supported by high - level crude oil. The overall fundamentals are considered slightly positive [7]. - **Likely factors**: High - level crude oil costs provide some support [10]. - **Negative factors**: High - priced asphalt has insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 09 contracts, have declined to varying degrees compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 contract price is 3166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan or 0.85% from the previous value [15]. - The basis of the 01 contract is - 26 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [7]. - The inventory shows a downward trend, including social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [7][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt bases from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main contract spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [20][21]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [23][24]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025, providing a reference for relative value analysis [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profits from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [39][40][41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the supply situation [42][43]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, helping to understand the inventory situation of raw materials [44][45]. - **Production volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the overall supply capacity [47][48]. - **Marr crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Marr crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the production capacity of local refineries [53][54]. - **开工率**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly asphalt production capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the industry [56][57]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: The report shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025, helping to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the inventory situation in the futures market [61][62][64]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025, helping to understand the overall inventory situation [65][66]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The report presents the historical trends of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of enterprises [68][69]. - **Import and export situation**: - The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [71][72][75]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the demand for related products in the asphalt industry [77][78]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - **Downstream demand**: - The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the impact of infrastructure construction on asphalt demand [83][84][85]. - The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [87][88][91]. - **Asphalt construction rate**: - The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt construction rates from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the demand for asphalt in different application scenarios [92][93][96]. - **Downstream construction situation**: - The report presents the historical trends of the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the demand for asphalt in the downstream industries [97][98][100]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand, which is useful for comprehensively analyzing the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4610 - 4666. The factors affecting the market include supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and inventory levels. [6][8][9] - The bullish factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Bullish factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery. [12][13] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in production scheduling. [6] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors had varying trends in开工率, but overall, the current demand may remain sluggish. [6] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month. The double - ton spread was 2,249.75 yuan/ton, with no change in profit month - on - month. All were below the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] 3.2.4 Basis On November 5, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,630 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral. [9] 3.2.5 Inventory Factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 252,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 85,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%. It is neutral. [9] 3.2.6 Market MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.7 Main Position The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.8 Expectation The cost of calcium carbide - based production is weakening, and the cost of ethylene - based production is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, production, and inventory data of different types of PVC products and related downstream sectors. [15][16] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures contracts, which helps to understand the market sentiment and price dynamics. [18][21][22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials - Analyzes the price, cost - profit, and production status of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, etc., which are crucial for understanding the cost structure of calcium carbide - based PVC production. [27][30][32] 3.5.2 PVC Supply - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, production volume, and maintenance of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production, reflecting the supply - side situation of PVC. [40][41][43] 3.5.3 PVC Demand - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC, as well as the relationship with the real estate market and macro - economic indicators, which helps to understand the demand - side situation. [45][47][50] 3.5.4 Inventory - Analyzes the inventory levels of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory warehouses, ethylene - based factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises, which reflects the inventory status of the PVC market. [57][58] 3.5.5 Ethylene - Based - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads, which are important for understanding the ethylene - based PVC market and international trade situation. [59][60] 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand situation of the market. [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the context of a weakening fundamental outlook, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong is under maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operating rates and low inventories at upstream methanol plants still focused on sales, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short - term. Considering the current low methanol prices and cautious short - selling by traders, the price decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. [5] - It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2090 - 2160. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of methanol 2601 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of October 30, 2025, port inventories have slightly increased, and the overall available circulating supply in coastal areas has decreased, both being bearish factors. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, also bearish. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2090 - 2160. [5] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have shut down; Iranian methanol operating rates have decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing external methanol. [6] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operations; there is an expected concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have significantly declined; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventories due to continuous poor sales. [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 694 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 249 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2192 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 2141 yuan/ton. There have been various price changes in different regions and varieties. [8] - **Inventory Data**: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 1282,900 tons, a slight increase of 13,100 tons from the previous period. The overall available circulating supply of methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 5300 tons to 838,300 tons. [5] - **Operating Rate Data**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. Operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed. [8] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc., with different maintenance start and end dates and corresponding weekly maintenance losses. [54] - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operating conditions, such as some plants are in the process of restarting, some are operating stably, and some are under maintenance. [55] - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, Northeast, etc. have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production increases. [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3040 - 3100. The market awaits progress on China's soybean purchases from the US and technical consolidation. The short - term outlook is neutral, with the price affected by factors such as US soybean trends, demand seasonality, and inventory levels [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180. Influenced by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic production expectations, the short - term outlook is also neutral [11]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal is affected by the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, US soybean harvest weather, and domestic demand. It is expected to remain range - bound [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to be strongly volatile above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will decline in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will also decrease from the high level. Soybean meal is expected to return to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Affected by potential weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, soybean meal is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From October 28 to November 5, the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small - scale changes [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 28 to November 5, the prices of soybean and meal futures and spot markets showed different trends. The futures price of soybean meal rebounded, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot discount slightly widening [18][23]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From October 27 to November 5, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed, with the number of soybean warehouse receipts increasing and the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts decreasing [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025/26 are presented, including data on planting rate, harvest rate, and growth indicators [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March - September 2025 show changes in planting area, yield, output, and other indicators [43]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 - 2025 shows monthly fluctuations, with a high - level decline in November 2025 and an overall year - on - year increase [46]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - **View**: The short - term outlook is neutral. Affected by US soybean trends, domestic demand, and inventory, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 3040 - 3100 [9]. - **Analysis of Influencing Factors**: The basis is negative, inventory is increasing, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short - position is decreasing with capital inflow [9]. Soybeans - **View**: The short - term outlook is neutral. Affected by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180 [11]. - **Analysis of Influencing Factors**: The basis is neutral, inventory is decreasing year - on - year but still at a relatively high level, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short - position is increasing with capital inflow [11].

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report [2] Report Date - November 6, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to be volatile and weak today. For LLDPE, the fundamentals are generally neutral, with a supply - demand imbalance, and the industry inventory is moderately high. For PP, the fundamentals are also neutral, with an oversupply situation. Although there are factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the easing of Sino - US relations, the overall market trend remains under pressure [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The demand in the agricultural film peak season continues, with high - level operations, while the restocking of other film types is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6830 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 16, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With an oversupply in fundamentals, the Sino - US meeting in Busan, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the industry inventory is moderately high [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the Sino - US meeting reaches a phased easing [5] - **Negative Factors**: The demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 9, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With an oversupply in fundamentals, the Sino - US meeting in Busan, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the industry inventory is moderately high [6] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the Sino - US meeting reaches a phased easing [7] - **Negative Factors**: The demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6830 (-50), the price of the 01 contract is 6814 (-65), the basis is 16, the import price in US dollars is 813 (unchanged), the import - converted price is 7124 (-1), and the import price difference is -294 (-49). The warehouse receipt is 12,669 (-6), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), and the social inventory is 510,000 tons (-18,000) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6500 (-50), the price of the 01 contract is 6491 (-69), the basis is 9, the import price in US dollars is 785 (unchanged), the import - converted price is 6884 (-1), and the import price difference is -384 (-49). The warehouse receipt is 14,629 (+60), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), and the social inventory is 333,000 tons (+13,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side has reduced production, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8920 - 9120 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling continues to decrease, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52550 - 54160 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the demand was 87,000 tons, a 7.44% decrease from the previous week, and demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 2.61 million tons, with silicon wafers, battery cells in loss, and components in a neutral profit state. Organic silicon inventory is 56,300 tons (low), with a production profit of - 520 yuan/ton (in loss), and a comprehensive开工 rate of 68.56% (unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 735,000 tons (high), with an import loss of 327 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost - side**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On November 5th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 168,100 tons, a 0.24% increase; major port inventory is 124,000 tons, a 0.81% increase [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply - side production scheduling decreases, demand recovery is at a low level, cost is near the historical average, and cost support has increased. Industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8920 - 9120 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a 3.32% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 189,300 tons, a 2.49% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in loss. In November, the production scheduling is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. In October, the battery cell output was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the battery cell export factory inventory was 3.85GW, a 36.04% decrease. Currently, battery cell production is in loss. In November, the production scheduling is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease. In October, the component output was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease from the previous month. In November, the expected component output is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - **Cost - side**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,760 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,240 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 5th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1155 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes above MA20 [8]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net long, and long positions are decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply - side production scheduling continues to decrease, demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continues to decline, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52550 - 54160 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of some contracts have increased, such as the 01 contract price rising from 8885 to 9020, a 1.52% increase [15]. - The spot prices of different types of industrial silicon in East China remain mostly unchanged [15]. - The inventory of some regions and ports has changed, with social inventory decreasing slightly, and sample enterprise and major port inventories increasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of some contracts have decreased, such as the 01 contract price dropping from 53715 to 53355, a 0.67% decrease [17]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remain mostly unchanged [17]. - The weekly total inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week [17]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the price spread between 421 and 553 [20]. - **Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprise inventories [25]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and monthly production by specification [28][29]. - **Cost**: It shows the historical cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: It presents the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and polysilicon [37][40][64]. - **Downstream Trends**: It details the price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of industrial silicon's downstream industries, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [43][51][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The production of lithium carbonate last week was 21,080 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.07%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 104,979 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.61%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.60% [8]. - In October 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 physical tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.19%. The import volume of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was 22,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 physical tons, a month-on-month increase of 22.73%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased on a daily basis and was lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78,080 - 80,200 [9]. - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, down 1.07% week-on-week and higher than the historical average. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and next month's forecast is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and next month's forecast is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 104,979 tons, up 0.61% week-on-week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, up 1.60% week-on-week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased and was lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 78,943 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.86%, with a profit of 425 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 82,750 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.82%, with a loss of -5,412 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was close to that at the ore end, and the production enthusiasm was average. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78,080 - 80,200 [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: The futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The basis of most contracts decreased. The prices of upstream raw materials such as lithium ore and lithium carbonate also changed to varying degrees, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 74.39%, unchanged from the previous period. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in October was 92,260 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous month, a 5.73% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 520,514 tons, an increase of 49,915 tons compared to the previous month, a 10.61% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.90 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons compared to the previous month, a -10.30% decrease [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly operating rate of various products increased to varying degrees. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, an increase of 37,600 tons compared to the previous month, a 10.54% increase. The monthly production of ternary materials increased to varying degrees. The monthly total battery loading volume was 76,000 GWh, an increase of 13,500 GWh compared to the previous month, a 21.60% increase [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to better - than - expected US ADP and PMI services data, risk appetite improved, leading to a rebound in gold prices. The medium - to - long - term trend is slightly bearish, and the price will fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at 0 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, also driven by better - than - expected US ADP and PMI services data, risk appetite improved, resulting in a significant rebound in silver prices. The long - term trend is slightly bearish, and the price will oscillate. The silver premium has expanded to 310 yuan/gram [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US ADP and PMI services data were better than expected, risk appetite improved, and the price of COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3990.40 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.78 basis points to 4.159%, and the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 100.16. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1312 [4]. - **Silver**: The US ADP and PMI services data were better than expected, risk appetite improved, and the price of COMEX silver futures rose 1.20% to $47.86 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, and the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21. The offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352 [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.66, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 87,816 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 19, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 665,610 kg, an increase of 6,759 kg from the previous day; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - At 08:30, pay attention to Australia's September goods and services trade balance, and Japan's October final services and composite PMI values. - It is time - undetermined that the 2025 World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit will open (lasting until November 9), Xiaoma Zhixing and Wenyuan Zhixing plan to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange simultaneously, and iFlytek will hold an offline main forum in Hefei (releasing the latest progress of the Spark large - model). - At 10:05, focus on Vietnam's October import - export and trade balance. - At 13:00, pay attention to India's October final services and composite PMI values. - At 15:00, focus on Germany's September industrial output. - At 16:00, the European Central Bank will hold the "Money Market 2025" conference, with Executive Board member Schnabel delivering a keynote speech and ECB Governing Council member Kocher speaking. - At 16:30, ECB Vice - President Guindos will attend a seminar on "Current Policy Challenges in the Eurozone". - At 17:00, the Norwegian Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. - At 19:45, ECB Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Villeroy will speak. - At 20:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. - At 20:30, ECB Governing Council member and German Central Bank President Nagel will discuss the global economy at a conference in Frankfurt. - At 22:00, ECB Governing Council member and German Central Bank President Nagel will discuss financial stability in Frankfurt. - At 23:30, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will attend a Senate committee hearing. - At 00:00 the next day, New York Fed President Williams will speak, and Fed Governor Barr will participate in a discussion. - At 01:00 the next day, Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak at the New York Economic Club. - At 02:30 the next day, ECB Chief Economist Lane will speak. - At 04:30 the next day, Fed Governor Waller will participate in a conference on central banks and payments. - At 05:30 the next day, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak. - At 06:30 the next day, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.66, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 87,816 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 19, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 665,610 kg, an increase of 6,759 kg from the previous day; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 0.95% to 160,330, the short position decreased by 1.30% to 65,685, and the net position decreased by 0.71% to 94,645 [31]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 1.77% to 330,613, the short position decreased by 3.62% to 246,681, and the net position increased by 4.12% to 83,932 [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production while the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net long position of the iron ore main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - With the reduction of domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The prices of downstream steel products are rising, and the tolerance for high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Aspects - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [8], iron ore basis [12], iron ore import profit [15], iron ore shipping volume [17], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [19], iron ore arrival and dispatch volumes [21], iron ore daily consumption [24], steel enterprise production [26], and iron ore port daily transactions and steel mill daily hot metal production [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The world zinc market shows a supply shortage in 2025. From January to August, the global zinc plate supply shortage was 281,300 tons, and in August, it was 21,000 tons. The outlook for SHFE zinc ZN2512 is oscillating with a slight upward bias [2]. - On November 5, the previous trading day, SHFE zinc showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing upwards. The short - term view is that the market may experience oscillating consolidation, but overall, SHFE zinc ZN2512 is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Fundamentals - **Supply and demand**: In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, with a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 22,580, and the basis was - 70, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 5, LME zinc inventory increased by 175 tons to 34,000 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 226 tons to 68,423 tons compared to the previous day [2]. - **Market trends**: The previous day, SHFE zinc showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing upwards [2]. - **Main positions**: The main players held a net short position, and short positions increased [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market Conditions on November 5 - **Futures exchange**: The trading volume of zinc futures on November 5 was 151,857 lots, with a turnover of 17.1761834 billion yuan, and the open interest was 223,198 lots, a decrease of 2,616 lots [3]. - **Spot market**: The price of domestic 0 zinc on November 5 varied by region. In Shanghai, it was 22,530 - 22,630 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, 22,380 - 22,480 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, 22,515 - 22,615 yuan/ton; and in Zhejiang, 22,505 - 22,605 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Zinc Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Information - **National zinc ingot inventory**: From October 23 to November 3, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 163,500 tons to 162,300 tons [5]. - **Futures exchange zinc warehouse receipts**: On November 5, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 68,423 tons, an increase of 226 tons compared to the previous day [2][6]. - **LME zinc inventory**: On November 5, LME zinc inventory increased by 175 tons to 34,000 tons compared to the previous day, with registered warrants at 29,700 tons and cancelled warrants at 4,300 tons, accounting for 12.66% [8]. 3.4 Zinc Refined Production and Processing Fees - **Domestic refined zinc production**: In September 2025, the production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15]. - **Zinc concentrate processing fees**: On November 5, the handling charges for zinc concentrates varied by region. For example, in Huludao, for 50% grade, the handling charge was 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/metal ton, with a reference price of 3,200 yuan/metal ton [17]. 3.5 Futures Company Transactions and Positions - **Trading volume**: For the zn2512 contract on November 5, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 156,365 lots, a decrease of 67,514 lots compared to the previous day. The top three in trading volume were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan Futures [18]. - **Long positions**: The total long positions of member futures companies were 77,848 lots, a decrease of 1,572 lots compared to the previous day. CITIC Futures had the largest long position [18]. - **Short positions**: The total short positions of member futures companies were 76,343 lots, a decrease of 1,219 lots compared to the previous day. CITIC Futures had the largest short position [18].