重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-8-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量大幅下滑， 终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1230元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1358元/吨，基差为-128元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存189.38万吨，较前一周增加1.54%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、23年以来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall oversupply in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but export profits remain strong despite a recent decline, and the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The urea futures price is expected to fluctuate today, with the international urea price remaining strong [4]. - The main bullish factor is the strong international price, while the main bearish factors are the high production and low domestic demand. The main influencing factors are the international price and the marginal change in domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled, the urea futures price returned to the fundamentals. On the 19th, rumors of increased urea exports to India during the China - India foreign ministers' meeting led to a rise in futures prices. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply in the domestic urea market exceeds demand, export profits have declined but remain strong, and the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 33, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.8%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (- 0.2 million tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized, and the domestic market is still in a state of oversupply [4]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1850 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1860 (unchanged), the Henan spot price is 1850 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2944 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1817 (+ 63), the basis is 33 (- 63), the price of UR05 is 1839 (+ 49), and the price of UR09 is 1783 (+ 25) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 3573 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (- 0.2 million tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 0.968 million tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 0.489 million tons (unchanged) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10] |

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Due to the preparation for the Russia-Ukraine meeting, the sharp decline of US technology stocks and Bitcoin, the gold price continued to fall. The premium of Shanghai gold continued to expand to 2.6 yuan/gram. Waiting for the central bank annual meeting, with good expectations for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the gold price will fluctuate [4]. - Silver: With the preparation for the Russia-Ukraine meeting and the sharp decline of US technology stocks and Bitcoin, the risk appetite significantly cooled down, and the decline of silver price significantly widened. The premium of Shanghai silver remained at around 415 yuan/kg. Waiting for the central bank annual meeting, with the cooling of risk appetite, the downward pressure on silver price increased [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes rose across the board; US bond yields fell collectively, the 10-year US bond yield fell 2.54 basis points to 4.306%; the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.28, the offshore RMB against the US dollar slightly depreciated to 7.1882; COMEX gold futures fell 0.57% to $3358.90 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The situation is similar to that of gold, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.84% to $37.33 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The base difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 36333 kilograms, the 20-day moving average is downward, the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, and the main net long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The base difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11020 kilograms to 1149446 kilograms, the 20-day moving average is downward, the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, and the main net long position decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - There are a series of economic data releases and events today, including China's LPR, the introduction of parade preparation work by the State Council Information Office, the final value of the Eurozone's July CPI, and intensive speeches by Fed members [4]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - Silver: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [12]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.84%, the short position decreased by 0.21%, and the net position decreased by 2.74% [29]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.18%, the short position decreased by 1.31%, and the net position increased by 0.26% [32]. - Gold ETF: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly [34]. - Silver ETF: The position of silver ETF decreased slightly, but it is still higher than that of the same period in the past two years [37]. - Warehouse receipts: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai gold, COMEX gold, Shanghai silver, and COMEX silver all increased slightly, and the COMEX gold warehouse receipts are still at a high level [38][39][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed import anti-dumping preliminary ruling is established, and rapeseed meal will maintain a relatively strong pattern in the medium and long term [1][41] Summary by Directory I. Preliminary Ruling on Anti-dumping Investigation of Canadian Rapeseed Imports by China - The preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of rapeseed imports is established. On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement, determining the existence of dumping and requiring importers to pay a 75.8% margin from August 14 [8][9] - There is a small probability of a turnaround between China and Canada before the final ruling. Stakeholders can submit written comments within 10 days, and Canada may send a high-level trade envoy for consultations [10] - Canadian rapeseed imports will be stagnant in the short term, and alternatives are being sought. Ports may require ships to pay the margin or return, and importers may turn to Russia, Australia, and the Middle East [11] II. Analysis of the Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Domestic Meal - Soybean meal enters the peak season of supply and demand, and its price is stable with a slight upward trend. The arrival volume of imported soybeans declined in August but increased year-on-year, oil mill soybean crush volume remained high, and soybean meal production increased in July [12][13][14] - Rapeseed meal demand is at the end of the peak season, with both bullish and bearish factors. Aquatic product demand will be concentrated in the next three months, but the annual import volume of rapeseed is insufficient, and the demand will enter the off-season after the National Day [28] III. Rapeseed Meal Maintains a Relatively Strong Pattern in the Medium and Long Term - There are uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and US soybean growing weather, as well as in the final ruling of the rapeseed anti-dumping investigation and China's dependence on soybean and rapeseed imports [41] - Key future variables include the yield per unit and total output of the new US soybean season, and the follow-up of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian trade negotiations [41] - Bullish factors include uncertainties in new US soybean weather and trade negotiations, and the peak demand season of domestic soybean meal. Bearish factors include the relatively high short-term inventory after the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the passing of the peak season of aquatic product demand, and the futures premium structure [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with increased supply this week and expected further increases in production scheduling next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4999 - 5109. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different operating rate changes, and the shipping cost is bearish. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 8.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 10.30%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,711.85 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 1.10%, higher than the historical average, and production scheduling may increase [8]. - **Other Aspects**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. On August 18, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 124 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%, and social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and profits of different types of enterprises and products, as well as their changes compared with the previous period [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report shows the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the relationship between basis, East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract [17][18]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread The report shows the historical trend chart of the spread of the PVC main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [23][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: It shows the historical trends of Lancoke medium - grade material price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly inventory, and daily output [26][27]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the historical trends of Shaanxi calcium carbide mainstream price, Wuhai weekly calcium carbide cost - profit, calcium carbide operating rate, maintenance loss, and production [28][29]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It shows the historical trends of liquid chlorine price, production, raw salt price, and monthly production [30][32]. - **Caustic Soda**: It shows the historical trends of 32% caustic soda price in Shandong, caustic soda cost - profit, sample enterprise caustic soda operating rate, weekly production, and maintenance volume [33][34]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend It shows the historical trends of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC capacity utilization rates, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC profits, PVC daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly PVC capacity utilization rate, and weekly sample enterprise PVC production [38][39][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It shows the historical trends of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly PVC production - sales ratio, PVC apparent consumption, PVC downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream sectors such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin [43][44][45]. - It also shows the historical trends of real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [52][54][55]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56][57]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method It shows the historical trends of vinyl chloride import volume, dichloroethane import volume, PVC export volume, ethylene - based FOB spread (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [58][59]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [61][62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports and the supply - demand situation in the domestic market. In the short term, it is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern. The RM2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2580 - 2640 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal shows a volatile upward trend. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market is affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling and shows a relatively strong volatile pattern [8]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation. - China's preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain. - The global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed production and the lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Multiple and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Likely to Fall**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the possibility of a small - probability settlement in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2650, with a basis of 60, indicating a premium over futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2580 - 2640. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 32,000 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week from 27,000 tons last week and up 14.29% year - on - year from 28,000 tons in the same period last year. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply and demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators over the years [8][23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8].

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月19日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | . | 7万吨 ， | 环比有所增加3 | 57% . | 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 ， | | 环比增长2 | 56% . . | 需求有所抬升 | . | 多晶硅库存 | | | | | | | | 为24 2万吨 . ， | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market is oscillating upward, with short - term weather uncertainties and technical consolidation. It awaits the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market is also in an upward oscillation, supported by good demand expectations and technical factors. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside. It may enter a moderately bullish oscillation pattern in the short term. The domestic soybean market is in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the US soybean trend and technical factors. The high volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppress the price. It is currently under the interactive influence of the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - growing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward after being affected by relatively positive data in the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China remains high in August, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, soybean meal is in a short - term moderately bullish oscillation. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig replenishment. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price. Considering the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal returns to an oscillation pattern within a range. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory; uncertainties in US soybean - growing area weather [13]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans arriving in July; the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2990, with a basis of - 165, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The main - contract long positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4300, with a basis of 256, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. The main - contract long positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From August 7th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2999 to 3086, and the trading volume ranged from 0.15 to 33.1 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2640 to 2660, and the trading volume was relatively low. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: From August 8th to 18th, the futures prices of soybean No. 1 (2511), soybean No. 2 (2511), soybean meal near - month (2509), and soybean meal main - contract (2601) all showed certain fluctuations. The spot prices of soybean No. 1 (in Jiamusi), soybean No. 2 (duty - paid price), and soybean meal (in Jiangsu) also changed to some extent [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse - receipt Data**: From August 6th to 18th, the soybean No. 1 warehouse receipts decreased from 13621 to 12632, the soybean No. 2 warehouse receipts remained at 2900 for most of the time, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts were mainly 10925 or 10950 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - and - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including data on planting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, etc. [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - and - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - and - demand reports from February to August 2025 show changes in harvest area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [41]. - **Other Market Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans is increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China is decreasing from its high in August but showing an overall year - on - year increase. The soybean inventory in oil mills is slightly increasing, while the soybean meal inventory is slightly decreasing. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have risen to a high and then declined, with an increase in short - term stocking demand. The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is rising with the increase in US soybean prices, and the profit margin of imported soybeans in the futures market is deteriorating. The pig inventory is rising, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. The pig price has recently declined after reaching a high, and the piglet price remains weak. The proportion of large pigs in China is increasing, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs is slightly rising. The domestic pig - farming profit has recently declined [42][44][45][47][51][53][55][57][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state where supply exceeds demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - led. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be depleted, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 87,340 - 91,140 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.16%. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.51%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,343 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.99%, with a profit of 1,069 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.33%, with a loss of 4,968 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end [8]. - **Basis**: On August 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 142,256 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%, and the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26% [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted that the production next month will be 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume next month will be 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. The price of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 87,340 - 91,140 yuan/ton [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products showed varying degrees of increase, while the basis of most products showed a negative value and a certain degree of decline [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of spodumene, lepidolite concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of anhydrous iron phosphate decreased slightly [13]. - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of most positive electrode materials and lithium batteries increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore increased, and the production and import volume of lithium ore showed different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore and the inventory of lithium ore in ports also changed [21]. - **Lithium Ore Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The demand, production, import, and export of lithium ore in different months from 2024 to 2025 are shown, and the supply - demand balance is calculated [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling) are presented, and the supply - demand balance is calculated [26][31]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide are shown [34][37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - Out - sourced spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have different cost - profit situations. The processing cost components of lepidolite and spodumene, as well as the import profit of lithium carbonate, are also presented [40][43][46]. - The cost - profit situations of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and different production methods of lithium hydroxide are shown [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in different periods and from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) is presented [48]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries are shown [52][54]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are presented [57][60]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials are shown [63][65]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, capacity, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [67][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles are shown [75][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, with the recovery being weak. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price of asphalt 2510 will fluctuate within the range of 3450 - 3496 [8][10][15] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production in China is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.35%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure [8] - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt is 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes is 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9] - **Other Aspects**: On August 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 107 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; factory inventory is 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [11] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including the current and previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as futures contracts, weekly inventory, weekly operating rate, weekly output and loss, asphalt coking profit, and downstream demand operating rate [17][18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It displays the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 and the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of weekly shipments, domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, weekly and monthly output, the price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output of Venezuelan crude oil, local refinery asphalt output, weekly operating rate, and estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 [45][47][50] - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), social inventory (70 samples), factory inventory (54 samples), and factory inventory inventory ratio from 2019 - 2025 [65][69][73] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [76][77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of petroleum coke output, apparent consumption, downstream demand (high - way construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year), downstream mechanical demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate, operating rates by use (modified asphalt, building asphalt), downstream operating conditions (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt), and the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2019 - 2025 [82][85][88]