交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 4 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 昨日行情概览 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.3174%，环比增加 0.239个百分点，全国样本企业出货33.13万吨，环比增加13.98%,样本企业产量为 55.6万吨，环比增加0.72%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.8万吨，环比减少10.05%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.5%，环比增加0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， 需求端来看 | 上周碳酸锂产量为21080吨 环比减少1 07% ， . , 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为104979吨 环比增加0 | 高于历史同期平均水平 61% 上周三元材 | 。 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ， 料样本企业库存为18890吨 | ， . 环比增加1 60% ， . 。 | , | | | | | | 成本端来看 | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为79630元/吨 日环比减少0 98% | 生产所得为 | | | | 1 | 基本面: | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows a mixed picture with both bullish and bearish factors. The upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton is a bearish factor, but the slight increase in seed cotton purchase prices and the reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US leaders' meeting are positive. The cotton futures main contract 01 has rebounded and is currently in a short - term sideways consolidation between 13,500 - 13,700 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions' reports show varying data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, ICAC's 11 - month report for the 25/26 season indicates a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,841, with a basis of 1306 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: China's Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons for the 25/26 season in October, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall main position is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous negative news has been gradually digested, and the seed cotton purchase price has increased slightly. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, tariffs have been reduced. The futures main contract 01 has rebounded and is currently in a short - term sideways consolidation between 13,500 - 13,700 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: The total global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons. Ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically unchanged; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data (October)**: For the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and ending inventory is 822,000 tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2460 - 2520. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will be affected by soybean meal in the short term and maintain range - bound oscillations. The overall view is neutral [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2460 - 2520 range. Its fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, inventory is bullish, the price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward (bullish), the main position shows more orders decreasing but capital inflow (bullish). It is expected to return to an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been levied. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 27 to November 4, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2997 to 3079 yuan, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2480 to 2610 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The difference between the average transaction prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, ranging from 460 to 528 yuan [13]. - From October 27 to November 4, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2335 to 2497 yuan, the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2323 to 2380 yuan, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranged from 2480 to 2610 yuan. Rapeseed meal futures bottomed out and rebounded, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium [15][17]. - From October 24 to November 4, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4260 to 2955 [16]. - In October, the import volume of rapeseed remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remained low [22][24][26]. - Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide specific and detailed position data other than the fact that the main long orders decreased and capital inflowed [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Due to heightened concerns about high valuations, the US stock market experienced a "Black Tuesday," leading to a decline in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite decreased, and the rebound strength of both gold and silver prices was weak. In the medium to long term, there was a slight shift to a bearish trend, with limited upside potential. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and the silver premium has expanded to 300 yuan/gram [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. However, the support for gold prices has significantly weakened recently [9]. - Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield dropped 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.81% to $3941.30 per ounce. The gold futures price was 915.58, the spot price was 912.55, with a basis of - 3.03, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 87,816 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the US stock market's "Black Tuesday" led to a decline in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11,238, the spot price was 11,219, with a basis of - 19, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 665,610 kilograms, with a daily increase of 6,759 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: A series of events and data releases are scheduled, including the release of the Bank of Japan's September monetary policy meeting minutes, the New Zealand Reserve Bank's press conference on the semi - annual financial stability report, the potential attendance of US President Trump at a hearing for the US Supreme Court's key "tariff ruling," and various PMI data from China, the US, and Europe, as well as the US October ADP employment data [15]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The support for gold prices has weakened due to the improvement of factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US tariff concerns. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of turmoil, and the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. But currently, the support factors have changed [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting it. Positive factors include global turmoil, the existence of shadow Fed's significant interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to a resurgence of inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors include the increasing expectation of a halt to interest rate cuts, the Fed's internal divergence, the under - expected European fiscal expansion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main gold holders decreased. For example, on November 4, 2025, the long position was 171,616, the short position was 69,501, and the net position was 102,115, showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [31]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main silver holders decreased. On November 4, 2025, the long position was 319,340, the short position was 252,370, and the net position was 66,970, also showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position fluctuated and decreased, while the silver ETF position fluctuated and increased and remained higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts stopped falling with silver being transferred from New York to London [40][41][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. The short - term trend will be affected by the US soybean market, with uncertainties in China's soybean procurement volume and good US soybean harvest weather limiting the upward space. Domestically, the low - season demand and spot price discounts will suppress the upward movement [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4000 and 4100. The short - term trend will be influenced by China's US soybean procurement and US soybean harvest weather. The cost - advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones will support the price bottom, while the high volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production will limit the price increase [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's US soybean procurement volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will decline in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will also fall from a high level. Affected by the relatively normal US soybean harvest weather and the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal will return to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing the price outlook. The soybean meal market will be affected by both the US soybean market and the off - season demand, returning to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The relatively high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the impact of the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations will keep soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state, waiting for further guidance on the US soybean yield and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in November, the listing of harvested US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market bottom, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supporting the domestic soybean price outlook [15]. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppressing the soybean price outlook [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 27 to November 4, the soybean meal futures oscillated and rebounded, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot discount slightly widening. The soybean futures prices also fluctuated during this period, and the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed certain changes [16][18]. - **Soybean and Meal - type Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From October 24 to November 4, the soybean (bean one and bean two) and soybean meal warehouse receipts changed, with some increases and decreases [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show changes in factors such as harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2015 to 2025/26 are presented, including different stages of sowing, growth, and harvesting [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 show changes in factors such as planting area, yield, output, and end - of - period inventory of soybeans [43]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in November is expected to decline from a high level, with an overall year - on - year increase [46]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The long - term divergence between domestic and international sugar prices is unsustainable. There is significant pressure above 5500 for the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar. The probability of short - sellers re - entering the market increases, suggesting a short - term volatile and bearish outlook [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's central - southern region produced 3601.6 million tons of sugar in the current season as of the first half of October, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply: Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a surplus of 277 million tons; ISO expected a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. In 2025, China's sugar - related data showed a complex situation: by the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, while the import of syrup and premixed powder decreased by 13.51 million tons to 15.14 million tons. Overall, the fundamental situation is bearish [4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, with a basis of 249 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, a neutral situation [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include increased global sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply Forecasts**: Different institutions have different predictions for the 25/26 global sugar supply. For example, the ISO in September 2025 predicted a supply gap narrowing to 20 million tons; StoneX in the same month expected a surplus of 277 million tons; Czarnikow in August 2025 forecast a surplus of 620 million tons (also mentioned 750 million tons elsewhere); Datagro in September 2025 predicted a surplus of 153 million tons; Covrig Analytics in August 2025 expected a surplus of 420 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus in July 2025 forecast a surplus of 40 million tons; Green Pool in July 2025 predicted a surplus of 115 million tons [36]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar - related data such as sugar - cane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are relatively stable. The import volume is expected to be 500 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be 1590 million tons in 2025/26. The international sugar price is predicted to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices, the import profit was considerable [44]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续回落，考验15000一线支撑。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，招 标价格坚挺，海运费维稳。镍铁价格继续回落，成本线松动下移。不锈钢库存小幅回升，金九银十后去 库存化再受考验。原生镍海内外持续垒库。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车有所回升，但总体 提振有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121800，基差2100，偏多 3、库存：LME库存252750，+0，上交所仓单30952，-254，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2512：震荡偏弱运行，考验成本支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mostly by traders. The polyester factories are less active. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Pay attention to device changes [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol has been continuously weakening, and the market negotiation is light. The supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium and long term, and the market sentiment is under pressure. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will weaken in the near future. Pay attention to cost and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened. The mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 75 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4525, and the 01 - contract basis is - 79, with the futures price at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period. It is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. It is bullish [6]. - Main position: The net short position is decreasing. It is bearish [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market negotiation was light. The overall sentiment in the market was weak. The spot basis of this week weakened to a premium of about 70 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The overseas market price of ethylene glycol dropped significantly. It is neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3995, and the 01 - contract basis is 94, with the futures price at a discount. It is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared to the previous period. It is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [7]. - Main position: The main net short position is increasing. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price**: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester on November 4 and November 3, 2025 [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, and polyester products from 2020 to 2025 [41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates**: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [52][56]. - **Profit**: It shows the profit data of PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester products from 2020 to 2025 [60][62].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level this month has decreased, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories have decreased, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, while the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis shows that the spot - converted prices of Rizhao Port PB powder and Brazilian Blend are at a premium to futures, being bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, being neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward, being bearish [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract has changed from short to long, being bullish [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Factors Affecting Iron Ore Bullish factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories have decreased [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The downstream steel prices are rising and can bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish factors - Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. 3.2. Market Indicators - **Iron ore port spot prices**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 825 with a basis of 49; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to the futures price is 846 with a basis of 70, and the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Iron ore import profit**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore shipment volume**: Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - **Iron ore port and steel mill inventories**: Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - **Iron ore arrival and clearance volumes**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore daily consumption**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Steel enterprise production situation**: Steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline [2]. - **Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal**: Not elaborated on in the provided content