1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper show a mixed picture: smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, the July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the basis shows a premium of the spot over the futures; the inventory situation is complex with a decrease in some and an increase in others; the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average moving downward; the main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing. The expected copper price will experience a shock adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. - The logical factors affecting copper include domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - The supply - demand balance of copper shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79050 with a basis of 160, showing a premium of the spot over the futures, considered neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 19, copper inventory decreased by 450 to 155150 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared to the previous week, considered neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, considered bearish [2]. - **Main Positions**: The main net positions are long but the long positions are decreasing, considered bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The copper price will experience a shock adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: The logical factors affecting copper include domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of copper shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, the production was 12060000 tons, the import was 3730000 tons, the export was 460000 tons, the apparent consumption was 15340000 tons, the actual consumption was 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance was a surplus of 110000 tons [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has significant differences in opinion regarding whether the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" will be prosperous. The 14,000 mark for Zhengzhou cotton is crucial. If it stabilizes above this level, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, there may be more room for decline [4]. - The overall situation of the cotton market is complex, with various factors presenting both positive and negative impacts [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton season. ICAC predicts a production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons; USDA forecasts production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons; the Ministry of Agriculture in China estimates production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38% [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,243 yuan, with a basis of 1,143 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The estimated ending inventory for the 2025/26 season by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture in July is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectations**: Zhengzhou cotton fell rapidly during the night session, breaking below the 14,000 mark. The 14,000 level is critical for future price movements [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Forecasts**: There are differences in production, consumption, imports, and ending inventories among different countries and regions in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons. For example, China's production in August 2025/26 is forecasted to be 6.858 million tons, consumption is 8.165 million tons, imports are 1.154 million tons, and ending inventory is 7.625 million tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/26 season, China's production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Nickel & Stainless Steel Morning Report - August 20, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - **Shanghai Nickel**: The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20-day moving average. Although the tight supply of imported goods has eased to some extent, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The cost line has risen slightly, and the inventory of stainless steel has decreased. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has declined year - on - year [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 2510 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The spot price remains flat, the cost line has risen slightly, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Overview - **Nickel**: On August 19, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,450 yuan, up 110 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of LME Nickel was 15,060 US dollars, down 110 US dollars from the previous day. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel remained unchanged at 121,650 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: On August 19, the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,885 yuan, down 125 yuan from the previous day. The prices of cold - rolled coils in major regions remained unchanged [12]. 2. Inventory Status - **Nickel**: As of August 19, LME nickel inventory was 209,328 tons, a decrease of 1,086 tons from the previous day; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 22,841 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous day [15]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of August 15, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons from the previous period. As of August 19, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 122,103 tons, an increase of 19,010 tons from the previous day [19][20]. 3. Cost Analysis - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel**: The price of laterite nickel ore CIF remained stable on August 19. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 928 yuan per nickel point, up 2 yuan from the previous day, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged at 3,420 yuan per ton [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,902 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,587 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,529 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 121,516 yuan per ton [29]. 4. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, firm nickel ore prices, and a slight rebound in ferronickel prices, with the cost line moving up slightly [7]. - **Negative Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new growth points in demand, and a long - term oversupply pattern. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has declined year - on - year [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年8月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货6040，基差379（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至7月底24/25榨季工业库存161万吨；偏多。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：白糖进口量大幅增加，由于国内销售较好，现货价格坚挺。郑糖01合约短期5640-5700 区间震荡。 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格在17美分/磅下方，进口利润窗口打开，进口冲 击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal is expected to be strong in the short - term, as the raw material rigid demand remains supported by the increased profitability and high operating enthusiasm of coking enterprises, despite the cautious procurement from downstream and the slightly low market sentiment [2]. - The price of coke is expected to be stable to strong in the short - term, as the supply is expected to further shrink due to environmental protection policies, while the rigid demand from steel mills still exists and the inventory of coke enterprises remains low [5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is still tight, with slow resumption of previously shut - down mines and new shut - down mines. Price decline space is limited. [2] - Basis: Spot price is 1190, basis is - 4.5, spot is at a discount to futures. [2] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week. [2] - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. [2] - Main position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are decreasing. [2] - Expectation: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. [2] Coke - Fundamental: Affected by pre - parade environmental protection policies, coke supply is expected to shrink further, and inventory is low. [5] - Basis: Spot price is 1620, basis is - 88.5, spot is at a discount to futures. [5] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week. [5] - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. [5] - Main position: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing. [5] - Expectation: The price is expected to be stable to strong in the short - term. [5] Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and limited supply increase. [4] - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices. [4] Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate. [7] - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand. [7] Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week. [19] - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week. [24] - Steel mill inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week. [28] Other Data - Coke oven capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48%. [41] - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan. [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The processing margin has remained low recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load has rebounded. There is no pressure for PTA to accumulate inventory in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The polyester load rebounded to around 89.4% last week, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, with gradually strengthening demand support. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing, and the port shipments will improve in the future. The inventory at ports is not expected to increase significantly from August to September. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, PTA futures rose and then fell, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The 8 - month cargo was negotiated at 09 - 5~10, with the price negotiation range around 4670~4705. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 - 8 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4690, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of MEG rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The night - session MEG fluctuated within a narrow range, and the negotiation was relatively limited. The domestic MEG market rose steadily, and the trading was fair. The spot was negotiated and traded at a high level of over 4480 yuan/ton, and the negotiation atmosphere became a bit stalemate in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the MEG outer market fluctuated upwards. The recent shipments were negotiated and traded at around 521 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the market rose steadily, with the recent shipments negotiated at around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton. The domestic - foreign price inversion widened, and the buying was relatively weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4455, and the basis of the 09 contract is 71, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force has a net short position, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start has also been slightly reflected [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [8]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the market rebound [8]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 3.5 Price - Related Charts - **PET Bottle Chip**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, etc. of PET bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][20][21]. - **PTA and MEG**: It includes the price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), basis, and spot price spreads between PTA and MEG from 2019 to 2025 [23][29][37]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025 [39][41][44]. 3.7 Operating Rate Analysis - **Polyester Upstream**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - **Polyester Downstream**: It includes the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: It shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - **MEG**: It shows the production profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - **Polyester Fibers**: It shows the production profit of polyester short fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile downward trend in the previous trading day, with increased trading volume and more short - position increases. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The price of Shanghai zinc ZN2510 is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [2][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,260, and the basis was +55, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 19, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 tons to 72,200 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 32,538 tons [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile downward trend in the previous trading day, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main players held a net short position, and the short positions increased, showing a bearish situation [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on August 19 - For the zinc futures contracts with different delivery months, prices generally declined. For example, the contract 2510 had a previous settlement price of 22,395, an opening price of 22,320, and a settlement reference price of 22,245, with a decline of 190 [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 19 - The prices of various zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, etc. generally declined. For example, the price of zinc ingot in Aoshang was 22,260, a decline of 80 [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 7 - 18, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 91,300 tons on August 7 to 115,000 tons on August 18 [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 19 - The total zinc warrants in the futures exchange were 32,538 tons, with no change compared with the previous day [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 19 - The LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 tons. For example, in Singapore, the inventory decreased from 75,750 tons to 72,100 tons [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 19 - The prices of zinc concentrate in major cities generally declined by 60 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 16,750 to 16,950 yuan/ton for 50% grade [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 19 - The prices of zinc ingots from major smelters generally declined by 100 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 21,900 to 22,530 yuan/ton [13]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10% [15]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 19 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade ranged from 3,400 to 4,100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 75 US dollars/kiloton [17]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 19 - For the zinc contract zn2510, the total trading volume of 20 futures companies was 170,862 lots, an increase of 26,817 lots compared with the previous day. The total long positions were 67,903 lots, an increase of 1,331 lots, and the total short positions were 73,026 lots, an increase of 10,736 lots [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal. [3] - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation. [3][4] - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,580, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [4] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [4] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [4] - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal. [5] - Similar to the soybean oil situation, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - The spot price of palm oil is 9,650, with a basis of 10, indicating a neutral situation. [5] - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, a bullish signal. [5] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [5] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal. [6] - The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is the same as above, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 50, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [6] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [6] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [6] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - Bearish factors include the historically high prices of oils and fats, the continuous accumulation of domestic oils and fats inventories, the weak macroeconomy, and the high expected production of related oils and fats. [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The glass market is expected to be mainly volatile and weak in the short - term due to the fading of macro - level positives and the weak fundamentals of glass. In the long - run, it is expected to have a wide - range volatile operation, with uncertainty about the sustainability of inventory reduction [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased by 1.32% to 1196 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1084 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 12.50% to - 112 yuan [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1084 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [11]. Fundamentals - Cost Side The report does not provide specific content about the cost side. Fundamentals - Production and Supply - The number of glass production lines in operation is 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history but showing signs of stabilization and recovery [21][23]. Fundamentals - Demand - The terminal demand in the real estate sector is still weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.55% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][41]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in production, consumption, and other indicators over the years [42]. 4. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. Negative Factors - The terminal demand in the real estate sector is weak, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has faded [4]. 5. Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream enterprises have carried out phased replenishment, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventory. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and it is expected that glass will mainly have a wide - range volatile operation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the "anti - involution" policy - driven gains have subsided, crude oil prices have declined, and the demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, while the industrial inventory is neutral. For PP, the "anti - involution" policy - driven gains have also fallen back, crude oil prices have dropped, and although the demand for downstream products such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly, the industrial inventory is neutral [4][7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to fundamentals. Short - term oil prices fluctuated and declined. On the supply - demand side, the overall demand for agricultural films was lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate was low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 87, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.2%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 505,000 tons (-71,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With the decline in policy - driven gains, falling crude oil prices, and lower - than - expected agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory, PE is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand and falling crude oil prices [6]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to fundamentals. Short - term oil prices fluctuated and declined. On the supply - demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for products such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7030 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 14, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.2%, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 588,000 tons (+1,000), indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With the decline in policy - driven gains, falling crude oil prices, slightly improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, PP is expected to show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand and falling crude oil prices [9]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain trends. For example, the PE import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then increased slightly to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been growing steadily, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have changed accordingly. The PP import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then increased to 9.5% in 2024 [17].