交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-18 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，获利盘回吐和加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕 现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面。但进口油菜籽到港量8月小幅增多但油 厂库存短期无压力，盘面短期受反倾销初步裁定影响偏强震荡。偏多 2.基差：现货2600，基差54，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存3.2万吨，上周2.7万吨，周环比增加18.52%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比增 加14.29%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力空单减少，资金流入，偏空 6.预期：菜粕短期受加拿大油菜籽 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5043 - 5151. The market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [9][12][13]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Base Price**: On August 15, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 167 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a 3.10% decrease from the previous period. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,202 tons, a 3.68% decrease, and the ethylene factory inventory was 76,500 tons, a 1.14% decrease. The social inventory was 492,800 tons, a 2.49% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises was 5.4 days, a 3.57% decrease, which is a bearish signal [10]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, which is a bearish signal [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 80.33%, a 0.01 - percentage - point increase. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a 1.67% increase, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a 0.28% decrease. The supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a 0.10 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.91%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.96%, a 0.869 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 72.86%, a 4.06 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.97%, a 0.429 - percentage - point increase, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 8.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 10.30% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,680.05 yuan/ton, with a profit decrease of 0.00% from the previous period, higher than the historical average, and the scheduled production may increase [8]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report presents the base price trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the base price, the East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18]. - **Price and Volume Trend**: The report shows the price and volume trend chart of PVC futures, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the change trends of the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the spread of the main contract, presenting the spread trends of 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 in 2024 and 2025 [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental - Related Factors - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and other data trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from 2016 to 2025, as well as the cost - profit, double - ton spread, and other data of the calcium carbide method and the chlorine - alkali industry [27][29][31][33][36]. - **Supply Trend**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and other data trends of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method from 2018 to 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Demand Trend**: The report shows the trading volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and other data trends of PVC from 2019 to 2025, as well as the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, and other data related to PVC demand, and the social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, infrastructure investment, and other macro - demand - related data [44][46][48][53][56]. - **Inventory Situation**: The report shows the data trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory from 2019 to 2025 [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: The report shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025 [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is oscillating and rising, with short - term weather uncertainties and short - covering. It is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has risen and then fallen, affected by rapeseed meal and technical adjustments. In the short term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The soybean market in China is oscillating and falling, influenced by the decline of US soybeans and technical adjustments. It is affected by the high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [8][10]. - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. The domestic soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term due to the high arrival of imported soybeans, the relatively high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills, and the positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is relatively high. Affected by the relatively positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High arrival of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price is 2980 (East China), with a basis of - 157, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 244, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-18甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：内地方面，宏观面引发业者悲观情绪，需求端暂无进一步利好提升下，长协贸易商出货意愿明显增加。与 此同时，内地尤其是产区甲醇企业库存偏紧对价格有一定托底作用，预计本周内地行情震荡偏弱整理。港口方面，近期 双焦的大幅波动对甲醇期现货市场负反馈展现，支撑市场的利好因素反转，同时港口库存延续累库预期叠加主力下游需 求缺位，预计本周港口市场或维持震荡行情，观望政策端口及消息层面的的良性引导；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2340元/吨，01合约基差-72，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：截至2025年8月14日，华东、华 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, while the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, after the peak season ends, the supply will increase. The short - term lack of stimulus leads to a weak oil price trend. As the peak season for demand is about to end, the oil price faces significant downward pressure. It is expected that the price of crude oil 2509 will operate in the range of 480 - 490 in the short term, and long - term long positions can be held [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals are neutral as Trump's talks with Putin did not reach an agreement on halting the war in Ukraine, and he may consider retaliatory tariffs later. The basis is neutral with spot and futures at par. Inventory data is bearish as API, EIA, and Cushing region inventories all increased. The disk shows a bearish signal with the 20 - day moving average downward and the price below it. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are long but decreasing, also indicating a bearish trend [3]. 2. Recent News - Geopolitical news: European leaders will accompany Zelensky to meet Trump. Trump claims progress with Russia but details are unknown. A proposal of Russia returning part of occupied territory in exchange for Ukraine's concessions is under discussion, and the fate of the Donbass region is crucial [5]. - Economic news: Wall Street expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September, but Powell may not give major hints at the Jackson Hole meeting. Analysts are divided on whether a rate cut is certain due to inflation above the 2% target and debates on employment data [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - Bearish factors: Potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict; continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil have changed. Brent decreased by 0.99 to 65.85 (a decline of 1.48%), WTI decreased by 1.16 to 62.80 (a decline of 1.81%), SC increased by 3.40 to 487.0 (an increase of 0.70%), and Oman decreased by 0.27 to 68.19 (a decline of 0.39%) [7]. - Spot prices: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil have also changed. UK Brent decreased by 0.58 to 67.98 (a decline of 0.85%), WTI decreased by 1.16 to 62.80 (a decline of 1.81%), Oman increased by 0.53 to 68.47 (an increase of 0.78%), Shengli increased by 0.53 to 64.44 (an increase of 0.83%), and Dubai increased by 0.52 to 68.41 (an increase of 0.77%) [9]. - Inventory data: API inventory increased by 151.9 barrels to 45321.3 barrels in the week ending August 8; EIA inventory increased by 303.6 barrels to 42669.8 barrels in the same period; Cushing region inventory increased by 4.5 barrels to an unspecified total in the week ending August 8; Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 476.7 barrels as of August 15 [3][10][15]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil: As of August 12, the net long position was 116742, a decrease of 25087 from August 5 [18]. - Brent crude oil: As of August 12, the net long position was 206547, a decrease of 34430 from August 5 [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is characterized by strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,000 - 88,800 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and next - month production is predicted to be 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase [10]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 79,952 yuan/ton, a 0.28% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,579 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 84,292 yuan/ton, a 0.69% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,868 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral [9]. - **Basis**: On August 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 44,280 tons, a 2.36% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral [9]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20. Bullish [11]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [11]. - **Positive factors**: Manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in lithium spodumene imports [12]. - **Negative factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [17]. - **Supply - demand data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 5.36%, and the monthly production increased by 9.70% [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Prices**: Lithium ore prices have shown fluctuations over the years [24]. - **Production**: The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has changed over different years [24]. - **Imports**: Lithium concentrate imports have fluctuated, with imports from Australia and other regions varying [24]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has shown different situations in different months and years [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling materials) has changed over time [29]. - **Production**: Lithium carbonate production has shown an upward or fluctuating trend over different years and months [29]. - **Imports**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed [29]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has shown different situations in different months and years [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over different years [37]. - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) has changed [37]. - **Exports**: China's lithium hydroxide export volume has shown an upward trend over different years [37]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has shown different situations in different months and years [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost - profit of different raw materials**: The cost - profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production has changed over time [43][46][49]. - **Processing cost - profit**: The cost - profit of processing lithium hydroxide from different forms (coarse - grained to fine - grained), and the cost - profit of various lithium compound conversion processes have changed [49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed over time [51]. - **Lithium hydroxide inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Prices**: The prices of lithium batteries have changed over time [55]. - **Production**: The monthly production of power cells and energy - storage cells has changed [55]. - **Exports**: The export volume of lithium batteries has shown an upward trend over different years [55]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Prices**: The prices of ternary precursors have changed over time [60]. - **Production**: The monthly production of ternary precursors of different series has changed [60]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has shown different situations in different months and years [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Prices**: The prices of ternary materials have changed over time [66]. - **Cost - profit**: The cost - profit of ternary materials has changed [66]. - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rate of ternary materials has changed over different years [66]. - **Exports and imports**: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Prices**: The prices of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [70]. - **Cost - profit**: The cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium has changed [70]. - **Production**: The monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has changed [73]. - **Exports**: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has shown an upward trend over different years [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production**: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrids and pure - electric vehicles) has changed over different years [78]. - **Exports**: The export volume of new energy vehicles has shown an upward trend over different years [78]. - **Sales**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrids and pure - electric vehicles) and the sales penetration rate have changed over different years [78][79]. - **Inventory indicators**: The retail - wholesale ratio, inventory warning index, and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed over different years [82].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward, with the main contract SA2601 closing 4.73% higher than the previous week at 1395 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe also rose by 3.64%. The "anti-involution" policy sentiment faded, and the market returned to fundamentals. Supply is increasing, with expected weekly output close to 780,000 tons and an operating rate of 89%. Demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is weak, and inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the soda ash fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market - The main contract SA2601 closed at 1395 yuan/ton, up 4.73% from the previous week. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1280 yuan/ton, up 3.64%. The main basis was -115 yuan/ton, up 18.56% [9]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1280 yuan/ton, up 3.64% from the previous week [14]. 3. Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method was -25.60 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co-production method was -41 yuan/ton, recovering from a historical low [17]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly industry operating rate was 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy soda ash ratio was 56.44% [20][22][24]. - Capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new capacity additions in the soda ash industry, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons in these three years, and 100 tons actually put into production in 2025 [25]. 4. Fundamentals - Demand - Sales-to-production ratio: The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash was 92.73% [28]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,600 tons, with a stable operating rate of 75.34%. The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall, and under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry cut production, with the in-production daily melting volume continuing a significant downward trend [32][38]. 5. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1,893,800 tons, up 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [41]. 6. Fundamentals - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [42]. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - The peak summer maintenance season is approaching, and production will decline [5]. Negative Factors - Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level [6]. - The heavy soda ash downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [8]. - The "anti-involution" policy sentiment has faded [8]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, L01 rose 0.1% to close at 7351 with a total position reduction of about 6100 lots, while PP01 fell 0.1% to close at 7084 with a total position reduction of about 6300 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend. - The main position indicators in Dayue's five major indicators show that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are bearish recently. - The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing. - Fundamentally, in July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to the fundamentals. Oil prices fluctuated and declined in the short term. - In terms of supply and demand, the overall demand for PE agricultural films fell short of expectations, and the film - making start - up rate was low. The downstream of PP is gradually moving into the peak season, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. has improved slightly. - The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is high. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Position Changes**: L01 rose 0.1% to 7351 with a reduction of about 6100 lots, and PP01 fell 0.1% to 7084 with a reduction of about 6300 lots [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend [5]. - **Basis Situation**: The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing [5]. 3.2 Production Profit | Contract | Latest | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | L Oil - based | - 151 | 126 | | L Coal - based | 963 | - 7 | | PP Oil - based | - 141 | 107 | | PP Coal - based | 418 | - 59 | | PDH | - 411 | - 144 | [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 with a growth rate of 11.0% [19]. 3.4 Inventory - The polyolefin industry chain has high inventory. There are also multiple inventory trend charts for PE and PP, including comprehensive inventory, social inventory, and warehouse receipts [5][15][21][24][27][30] 3.5 Start - up Rate - There are start - up rate trend charts for PE and PP, showing the start - up rate changes throughout the year [33][36] 3.6 Profit - There are production cash - flow trend charts for PE (coal - chemical and oil - based) and PP (coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH) [39][42] 3.7 External Market Price - There are charts showing the internal - external price differences of polyolefins, as well as the US - dollar - denominated prices of PE and PP [45][48][50] 3.8 Downstream - There are charts showing the average start - up rates of PE and PP downstream industries [53][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week, and the market may experience a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,800 to 14,200 [8]. - The overall sentiment in the domestic macro - environment is pessimistic, and the high - temperature weather has dampened residents' enthusiasm for fresh pork consumption. However, the additional tariffs imposed on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market entered a slack season, with both supply and demand of pigs decreasing. The spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly in the short term, and the futures market followed a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork decreased in the short term. Affected by the decrease in both supply and demand, the spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter [10]. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a relatively low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is relatively high in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand has suppressed the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot markets [10]. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures market will generally maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. When the market stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and increase in demand [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited potential for further decline in domestic live pig spot prices [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into a slack season after May Day [11]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand**: In August, as the peak season for supply and demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approaches, the enthusiasm for domestic slaughter has increased. The short - term bottom - out and rebound of the pig price is followed by an oscillating pattern. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will increase this week. On the demand side, the pessimistic domestic macro - environment and high - temperature weather have dampened residents' consumption enthusiasm, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [8]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 13,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is - 245 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [8]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the glass futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the closing price of the main contract FG2601 rising 1.25% to 1211 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1088 yuan/ton, down 1.45% from the previous week [2][8][13]. - After the sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy faded, the market returned to fundamentals. The supply of glass was at a historically low level and stabilized, while the demand from downstream processing plants remained weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Overall, with the fading of the policy's positive effects, the glass fundamentals remained weak, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - The main logic is that although the glass supply has declined to a relatively low level, and there was a phased replenishment in the downstream, the sustainability of the inventory reduction is questionable. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate in a wide range [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract FG2601 was 1211 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from the previous week. The spot benchmark price was 1088 yuan/ton, down 1.45%. The main basis was -123 yuan/ton, up 33.70% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1088 yuan/ton, down 1.45% from the previous week [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit No specific content provided in the report other than the data source. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%. The daily melting volume was 159,600 tons, remaining flat from the previous week. The production capacity was at the lowest level in the same period and showed signs of stabilizing [3][24][26]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The orders of downstream processing plants remained at a weak level, and some enterprises mainly consumed their own inventory. Affected by the "buying on the upswing" sentiment, the enthusiasm for purchasing was weak [3][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - As of August 14, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, up 2.55% from the previous week, and the inventory continued to accumulate above the 5-year average [3][45]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent supply, consumption, and other indicators [46]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak; the capital recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic; the market sentiment of the "anti-involution" has faded [6].