1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The industry meeting had no substantial conclusions. The PTA futures fluctuated downward in the afternoon, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened. The spot basis rose and then fell. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost - end in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward on Thursday, and the market transaction was acceptable. The port inventory is expected to increase significantly this week, and the spot flow will be supplemented. It is expected that the short - term price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted within a range, with continuous upward pressure [7]. - Overall: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the market rebounds [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: - Fundamental: After the industry meeting, the market situation changed as described above. The 11th - middle of November was traded at a discount of 69 - 72 to the 01 contract, and the 12th - middle of December was traded at a discount of 50 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 71 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4530, and the 01 contract basis is - 40, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period, showing a bullish situation [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [6]. - Main Position: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish tendency [5]. - Expectation: Driven by the downstream polyester sales this week, the PTA spot basis strengthened slightly, and the market transaction center gradually shifted to November [5]. - MEG: - Fundamental: The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward on Thursday. The domestic supply will be abundant in the later period. After the delivery cycle ends, the spot buying in the trading link will also weaken [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4145, and the 01 contract basis is 113, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared with the previous period, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position decreased, showing a bearish tendency [7]. - Expectation: The port inventory is expected to increase significantly this week, and the short - term price center will be adjusted within a range [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, output, supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [12]. - Price - related Data: It includes the spot price, production profit, production capacity utilization rate, inventory, basis, and price difference data of bottle chips, PTA, MEG, and other products from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price trends and market conditions of different products [15][18][22]. - Inventory Analysis Data: It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the inventory levels and trends of different products [41]. - Production Start - up Data: It includes the production start - up data of the upstream and downstream of polyester from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the production activities and market supply - demand relationships of different links in the polyester industry chain [52][56]. - Profit Data: It includes the profit data of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and other products from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profitability and market competitiveness of different products [61][62].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the economic climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia [2]. Industry Analysis Fundamentals - The supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production cuts, and the scrap copper policy is liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI reached 49.8%, with the economic climate continuing to improve, showing a neutral situation [2]. Basis - The spot price is 87,920, and the basis is -40, indicating a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [2]. Inventory - On October 30, copper inventories decreased by 400 to 134,950 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 5,448 tons from the previous week to 104,792 tons, showing a neutral situation. The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][13]. Market Trends - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish situation [2]. Main Position - The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish situation [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024 [19][21]. Other Factors - The processing fee has declined, and the recent analysis of long and short factors includes global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3][15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass industry has a weak fundamental outlook. In the short term, it is expected to operate with a weak and fluctuating trend. The supply has declined to a relatively low level, and there are more disturbances on the supply side recently, but the terminal demand recovery is weak [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.19% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass was 1048 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the previous value. The main basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.19% from the previous value [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1048 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No detailed content provided. Fundamental Analysis - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%. The number of operating production lines was at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, and the production capacity was at the lowest level in the same period in history and was stabilizing and recovering [24][26]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand was still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises was at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry was not optimistic, and traders and processors were cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [30][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous week. The inventory was running above the 5 - year average [45]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and other indicators. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, the consumption was 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate was 3.94%, while the consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [46]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of production capacity clearance in the float glass industry. There are more disturbances on the supply side due to the "coal - to - gas" conversion of some production lines in the Shahe area [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious [6]. Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period. Recently, there have been more disturbances on the supply side, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly operate in a fluctuating manner [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年8月，全 球锌板产量为115.07万吨，消费量为117.17万吨，供应短缺2.1万吨。2025 年1-8月，全球锌板产量为908.85万吨，消费量为936.98万吨，供应短缺 28.13万吨。2025年8月，全球锌矿产量为106.96万吨。2025年1-8月，全球 锌矿产量为844.57万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22300，基差-65；中性。 3、库存：10月30日LME锌库存较上日减少300吨至34900吨，10月30日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少300吨至67124吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined, and the price is fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The nickel ore price is firm, the nickel - iron price is stable with a slight decline, and the stainless - steel inventory has slightly decreased. The new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 2512 contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, the freight rate is stable, the nickel - iron price is stable with a slight decline, and the cost line has moved down. The stainless - steel inventory has slightly decreased. The 2512 contract of stainless steel is expected to run with a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Price Overview** - **Nickel and Stainless - Steel Futures**: On October 30, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 120,980 yuan, down 560 yuan from the previous day; the London nickel was at 15,250, down 155; the stainless - steel main contract was at 12,725 yuan, down 80 yuan. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was at 120,350 yuan, down 750 yuan, and the cold - rolled coil index was at 12,420 yuan, down 30 yuan [11]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,200 yuan, up 300 yuan; the price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions remained unchanged [11]. **Inventory Situation** - **Nickel Inventory**: As of October 30, the LME nickel inventory was 251,640, a decrease of 66; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 31,532, an increase of 99. The total inventory increased by 33 [14]. - **Stainless - Steel Inventory**: As of October 24, the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory was 601,100 tons, the Foshan inventory was 302,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,027,400 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons compared with the previous period. The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts on October 30 remained unchanged at 73,777 [18][19]. **Cost Factors** - **Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices**: On October 30, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 30 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained stable. The high - nickel wet - ton price was 925 yuan per nickel point, and the low - nickel wet - ton price was 3,050 yuan per ton, both unchanged [22]. - **Stainless - Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,867 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,067 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,694 yuan [24]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 122,378 yuan per ton [27]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: Expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut, anti - involution policies, and the firm ore price with a cost support line at 120,000 yuan [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a mixed situation. Supply has increased, and demand has also recovered to a certain extent, but demand recovery remains at a low level. Costs have increased, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9070 - 9270 [3][6]. - The polysilicon market has short - term supply increases and medium - term expected adjustments. Demand is in the process of continuous recovery, costs are stable, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54185 - 55795 [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. The inventory of organic silicon is at a low level, with a production profit of - 454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 70.05%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 130 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons, and the inventory of major ports increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9070 - 9270 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production in October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 184,700 tons, a 6.70% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components has decreased to varying degrees, with battery cell production in a loss state and component production in a profitable state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,950 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling will increase in the short term and adjust in the medium term. Demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to recover in the medium term, with overall demand showing continuous recovery. Cost support is stable, and the polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54185 - 55795 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, with the 01 contract rising 2.40% to 9170 yuan/ton [14]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [14]. - The basis of most contracts has decreased [14]. - Inventory shows different trends, with social inventory decreasing by 0.53%, sample enterprise inventory decreasing by 0.18%, and major port inventory increasing by 2.50% [14]. - Production and开工率 vary by region, with Xinjiang's production and开工率 increasing, and Sichuan's production and开工率 decreasing [14]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, with the 01 contract rising 1.17% to 54,990 yuan/ton [16]. - Prices of different types of silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, and silicon wafer and battery cell production is in a loss state [16]. - The polysilicon inventory has increased by 1.98% to 258,000 tons [16]. - The production and demand of polysilicon in different months show different trends, with production and export showing some fluctuations [16]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 in East China [18][19]. - **Polysilicon Disk Price Trends**: The report shows the price and trading volume trends of the polysilicon main contract, as well as the basis trend [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: It includes the inventory trends of delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises [24][25][26]. 3.4 Production and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises in different regions, the monthly production by specification, and the开工率 trends [28][29][30][31]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It presents the cost - profit trends of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and the cost - profit trends of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang [35][36]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, consumption, etc. [37][38]. - **Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from September 2024 to September 2025, including production, consumption, export, and import [40][41]. - **Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Table**: No detailed content is provided in the given text, only the title is mentioned [66]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production Trends**: It includes the daily capacity utilization rate of DMC, the profit - cost trends of Shandong organic silicon DMC, and the weekly production trends [43][44]. - **Downstream Price Trends**: It shows the price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [45][46][47]. - **Import - Export and Inventory Trends**: It presents the monthly import - export volume and inventory trends of DMC [50][51]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: It includes the waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, import - export situation of unwrought aluminum alloy in China, the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, and the cost - profit trend of imported ADC12 [53][54]. - **Inventory and Production Trends**: It shows the monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly开工率 of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [56][57]. - **Demand (Automobiles and Wheels)**: It presents the monthly production and sales volume of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels [58][59][60]. Polysilicon - **Fundamental Trends**: It includes the cost trend, price trend, total inventory, monthly production, monthly开工率, and monthly demand of the polysilicon industry [63][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The IC2512 has a discount of 90.97 points, and the IM2512 has a discount of 122.72 points, showing a bearish signal [3]. - The market should focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting today. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and Powell hinted that it might be the last rate cut this year. The two markets rose generally yesterday, with the ChiNext leading the way, and market hotspots rotated. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above the 4000 mark, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The margin trading balance was 2476.9 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7 billion yuan, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The IH2512 has a premium of 1.78 points, and the IF2512 has a discount of 15.24 points, showing a neutral signal [3]. - The order of performance is IH > IC > IF > IM, and IH, IF, IC, and IM are above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The long positions of IF and IC main contracts decreased, while those of IH main contracts increased, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations. After the Fourth Plenary Session, the technology sector rebounded, and the index rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above the 4000 mark. Currently, it is recommended to appropriately reduce positions if there is a sharp intraday rise, and the index is expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' meeting today [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Index Data**: For various futures contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM, detailed information including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividends, spreads, premium/discount ratios, annualized premium/discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms is provided [4]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: Charts of the base and spread of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500 futures are presented, showing their historical trends [6][9]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, etc. are shown [12]. - **Style Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of style indexes such as the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, etc. are presented [15][19]. Market Structure - **AH Share Premium/Discount**: The historical trend of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is shown [22]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: The historical trends of the PEs of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [24]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The historical trends of the PBs of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [26]. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflow**: The historical trend of A - share net fund inflow and the CSI 300 index are shown [28]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The historical trends of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index are presented [30]. - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: The historical trend of the net inflow of northbound capital is shown [32]. - **Stock Unlock**: No specific content is provided other than the title. - **Fund Cost**: The historical trends of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates are presented [38]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The historical trends of the turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [41][44]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: No specific content is provided other than the title. Other Indicators - **Futures Index Dividend Yield and 10 - Year Treasury Yield**: The historical trends of the dividend yields of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as the 10 - year treasury yield, are presented [50]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The historical trend of the US dollar - to - Renminbi exchange rate is shown [52]. - **New Account Openings and Shanghai Composite Index Tracking**: No specific content is provided other than the title. - **Newly Established Scale Changes of Different Types of Funds**: The newly established scale changes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are presented, but no specific content is provided other than the titles [55][57][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the methanol market, indicating that the mainland market has limited room for rise and fall, while the port market is expected to maintain high volatility with both upward and downward movements this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2,220 - 2,275 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the MA2601 contract, the mainland has support from low upstream factory inventory, strong coal prices, and low methanol prices in production areas, but there is also supply pressure in some areas, negative feedback from olefin plants, and high port inventory. The port market is affected by the sanctions event, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals, and is expected to be highly volatile. The overall market is rated as neutral. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory in East and South China ports decreased slightly, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas also decreased, both being bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The net position of the main holders is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; the methanol production in Iran has decreased and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May; northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and futures prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 1.78% week - on - week, and the futures price decreased by 1.53% week - on - week. The basis decreased by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [9][11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia decreased by 95 yuan/ton week - on - week, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol in the northwest decreased by 325 yuan/ton week - on - week [21]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the operating rate in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased by 3.02 million tons to 78.71 million tons, and the inventory in South China ports decreased by 1.93 million tons to 48.27 million tons [8]. - **External market prices**: The CFR price in China decreased by 0.76% week - on - week, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia decreased by 0.61% week - on - week. The price difference remained unchanged [25]. - **Downstream product prices and profits**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged. The profit of formaldehyde production increased by 9 yuan/ton, the profit of dimethyl ether production increased by 28 yuan/ton, and the profit of acetic acid production increased by 22 yuan/ton. The MTO device profit increased by 128 yuan/ton, and the MTO load increased by 0.15% [31][36][39][43][48]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or reduced load, including those in the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast regions. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are in shutdown or maintenance states [57]. - **Overseas methanol plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, such as some are in the process of restarting, some are operating stably, and some are under maintenance [58]. - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is under maintenance, and Ningxia Baofeng is operating stably [59].

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: October 30, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while the industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. Although the domestic urea market remains oversupplied, the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -64, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.1%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (-201,000), also bearish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. The main contract of urea is expected to rebound, with weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international urea prices, and increasing export volume. Despite the obvious domestic oversupply, the price is expected to rise in the short term, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and upward trend today [4]. Summary by Directory Urea Overview Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are declining from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis - The UR2601 contract basis is -64, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (-201,000), showing a bearish signal [4]. Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The main contract of urea is expected to rebound, with weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international urea prices, and increasing export volume. Despite the obvious domestic oversupply, the price is expected to rise in the short term, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and upward trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Bullish Factors - Strong international prices, increasing exports, and short-term decline in daily production [5]. Bearish Factors - Domestic oversupply [5]. Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), the price of Shandong spot is 1600 (-10), and the price of Henan spot is 1580 (0). The price of the FOB China is 2662. The price of the UR01 contract is 1644 (9), the price of the UR05 contract is 1717 (9), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (11). The basis of the UR01 contract is -64 (-19). The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. Supply is at a low level and has recently seen more disturbances, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental analysis: Supply is at a low level and starting to recover, with many supply - side disturbances in the Shahe area such as "coal - to - gas" conversion. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, worse than the same period in previous years, and the real - estate terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1044 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1127 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 83 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.64% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][44]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [4]. - Bearish factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [5]. 3.3 Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Recently, there have been more supply - side disturbances, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a volatile trend [6]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1113 yuan/ton to 1127 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.26%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate remained unchanged at 1044 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 69 yuan/ton to - 83 yuan/ton, a rise of 20.29% [7]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1044 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamental - Cost Side The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data [14][17]. 3.7 Fundamental - Production - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and starting to recover [25]. 3.8 Fundamental - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [29]. - The report also mentions housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, as well as the operating and order situations of downstream processing plants, but no specific data is provided [30][32][39]. 3.9 Fundamental - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.64% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [44]. 3.10 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [45].