交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-30） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：下游焦企利润修复，原料煤库存保持低位，对原料煤多维持适量补库。但由于盈利不佳，补 库动力不足，考虑目前仍处于补库周期，且焦炭价格仍有走强预期，对原料煤价格形成一定支撑，预计 短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：主产地环保、安全等方面措施进一步加强，煤矿生产依然受限。近期下游企业及贸易商对 焦煤采购量有所增多，煤矿新订单增加，煤矿产地库存快速消耗，带动矿方报价坚挺。加之主流大矿线 上竞拍成交价格也继续探涨，炼焦煤市场整体交投氛围良好，但由于终端利润薄弱，近期涨幅有所收窄 偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1380，基差78；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level at ports this month has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories have decreased, there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, and the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 845, with a basis of 41; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 864, with a basis of 60, showing that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Regarding inventories, port inventories are 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The market price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand will decline, and the plan to reduce production capacity will impact the market, suggesting a high - level consolidation strategy [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Related Indicators - Iron ore port spot prices [8] - Iron ore futures - spot basis [13] - Iron ore import profit [16] - Iron ore shipping volume [19] - Iron ore port inventories and steel mill inventories [23] - Iron ore arrival and port clearance volume [28] - Iron ore daily consumption [31] - Steel enterprise production situation [33] - Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal production [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon increased last week, with demand also rising. The inventory situation varies among different downstream sectors. The cost support has increased, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8850 - 9060. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, such as cost - rising support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply of polysilicon decreased slightly last week, but the October production plan is expected to increase. The demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends, with some experiencing production cuts. The cost is stable, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53540 - 55170 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased, but different downstream sectors have different inventory and profit situations [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On October 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 345 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease; the main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The 2601 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8850 - 9060 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The October production plan is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends. Some are in a loss - making state, and the production plans for October have decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1375 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [8]. - **Expectation**: The short - term supply schedule will increase, and the medium - term is expected to adjust. The short - term production of downstream products will decrease, and the medium - term is expected to recover. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and the cost support is stable. The 2601 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 53540 - 55170 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of different contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon have minor fluctuations. The inventory situation of different regions and ports also shows different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of different contracts of polysilicon have decreased to varying degrees. The production, inventory, and export volume of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends [17]. 3.3 Other Information - There are also various trend charts in the report, including price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance trends of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [19][22][25].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-29原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.基本面：德国经济和能源部长莱歇告诉路透，美国政府已书面保证，俄油在德国的业务将免受新的 能源制裁，因为这些资产已不再由俄罗斯控制；以色列总理内塔尼亚胡下令军方立即在加沙发动"强 力打击"，以回应士兵在加沙遇袭事件，此举重新引发了市场对中东供应的担忧；印度石油公司高 管：绝不会完全停止购买俄罗斯原油；中性 2.基差：10月28日，阿曼原油现货价为65.60美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.70美元/桶，基差 22.24元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至10月24日当周API原油库存减少4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为76.57%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量31.628万吨，环比减少0.45%,乙烯 法企业产量15.036万吨，环比增加0.47%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计 排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.86%，环比增加.27个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为35.87%，环比增加.61个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为41.2%，环比增 加.2个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market lacks short - term guidance and remains volatile [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price trend on the disk is neutral, the main positions show a bullish signal, and the short - term market is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply tightening and demand weakening, which suppresses the market. Canada's rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and import deposit on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 20th to 28th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, while spot prices were relatively stable, with a small - amplitude fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, and capital flowed in [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 沥青期货早报 2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 3万吨 环比降 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅5 1% 同比增幅17 1% . , . | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33 0777% 环比减少 。 . ， | | | | | 4 31个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货29 066万吨 环比增加14 73% 样本企业产量为 ， . . , | | | | | 55 2万吨 环比减少11 . ， | 53% 样本企业装置检修量预估为67 6万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market has limited room for rise and fall due to factors such as low upstream factory inventories, strong coal prices, high overall mainland plant operation levels, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both rises and falls this week, affected by the sanctions event, with weakening downward momentum but a weak fundamental situation. The report suggests paying attention to the follow - up impact of the sanctions event, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operation [4]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week, with MA2601 operating in the range of 2230 - 2280 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Mainland: Low upstream factory inventories and strong coal prices support the cost side, but high operation levels in some areas and squeezed olefin profits have a negative impact. The market has limited upward and downward space. Port: Affected by the sanctions event, the downward momentum of the port market is weakened, but it will maintain high volatility [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2230 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 125.89 tons, a slight decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period. The available circulating methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 6.34 tons to 87.70 tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some device shutdowns (Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinyao), reduced methanol operation in Iran, low port inventories, the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen, a planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month, and external procurement of methanol by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operation, certain profit margins for coal - to - methanol production, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, prices in various regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have changed to different extents. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased, and the number of registered warrants has decreased. There have also been changes in price spreads such as basis, import spreads, and regional spreads [8]. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have also decreased [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 3.02 tons, while the inventory in South China ports has decreased by 1.93 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [56]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions [57]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, normal operation, or load adjustment, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Ningbo Fude, etc. [58].

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-29投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8360，基差178，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 近期利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market waits for the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Gold prices first declined and then rebounded, while silver prices slightly recovered. There is still support from easing expectations, but gold prices face pressure due to optimistic trade negotiations. The downward pressure on gold prices persists with the return of optimistic trade expectations. The impact of the Fed's meeting on prices may be short - term [4][6]. - Gold: Despite the end of the decline in gold prices before the Fed's decision, the pressure from trade optimism remains. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at 1 yuan/gram. The Fed's meeting may bring back the support of easing, but the impact time is short [4]. - Silver: Silver prices follow gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has slightly expanded to 420 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment remains strong. Silver prices may be supported by the Fed's decision, but the impact is short - term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.01 basis points to 3.976%, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.73, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.28% to $3968.10 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market waited for the Fed's decision. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. COMEX silver futures rose 0.78% to $47.14 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and there are both support from easing expectations and pressure from trade optimism [4]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 3.24, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: Gold futures warehouse receipts are 87,015 kilograms and remain unchanged, which is bearish [5]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [5]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [5]. - **Silver**: - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and silver prices are slightly recovering. Silver is stronger than gold under the current situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 14, with the spot at a discount to the futures, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,784 kilograms to 657,427 kilograms, which is bullish [7]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 08:30, Australia's Q3 CPI; throughout the day, the Hong Kong stock market is closed; time to be determined, US President Trump visits South Korea and attends the APEC leaders' summit; at 12:05, New Zealand's central bank governor Hawkesby talks about central bank independence; at 20:30 (possibly), the US September merchandise trade balance; at 21:45, the Bank of Canada announces the interest rate decision; at 22:00, the US September pending home sales index; after the European stock market closes, Deutsche Bank releases its earnings report; at 02:00 the next day, the Fed releases the FOMC monetary policy meeting's resolution statement; at 02:30 the next day, Fed Chairman Powell holds a regular press conference [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic for gold is that after Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality continues, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [11]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. The influencing factors include both bullish factors such as global turmoil, increased expectation of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and bearish factors such as the end of interest rate cuts and the improvement of economic expectations [14][15]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.25% to 169,983, the short position decreased by 2.02% to 65,686, and the net position increased by 1.73% to 104,297 on October 28 compared to October 27. The SPDR gold ETF position continues to decrease [30][34]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7.41% to 322,389, the short position decreased by 0.46% to 251,213, and the net position decreased by 25.71% to 71,176 on October 28 compared to October 27. The silver ETF position continues to decrease but is higher than the same period in the past two years. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts stop falling and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [31][37][40].