Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View - The Shanghai Aluminum market showed a volatile adjustment and upward trend last week, with the main contract rising 0.47% and closing at 20,770 yuan/ton on Friday. The long - term control of production capacity under carbon neutrality, weak demand due to the suppression of the domestic real estate market, the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US increase in steel and aluminum tariffs are negative factors for domestic aluminum prices. The domestic demand has entered the off - season, waiting for consumption to recover. The LME inventory increased slightly last week, and the SHFE weekly inventory increased by 7,039 tons to 120,653 tons [3]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Review - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 0.47% last week and closed at 20,770 yuan/ton on Friday. The LME inventory was 479,550 tons last week, showing a slight increase compared to the previous week, and the SHFE weekly inventory increased by 7,039 tons to 120,653 tons [3]. b. Fundamentals - **Supply - demand balance table**: The supply - demand balance table of Chinese aluminum from 2018 - 2024 shows that there was a supply shortage from 2018 - 2023, with shortages of 476,000 tons in 2018, 686,100 tons in 2019, 13,000 tons in 2020, 142,000 tons in 2021, 299,800 tons in 2022, and 43,000 tons in 2023. However, in 2024, there is a supply surplus of 150,000 tons [10]. c. Market Structure The report mentions two aspects of market structure: - **Spot - futures price difference**: No specific content is provided. - **Import profit**: No specific content is provided.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons. The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025 [3][11]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情回顾 - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons [3]. 基本面（库存结构） - PMI: No specific content provided [7][9]. - Supply - demand balance: The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. A detailed China annual supply - demand balance table from 2018 - 2024 is provided [11][14]. - Inventory: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 市场结构 - Processing fee: The processing fee is at a low level [22]. - CFTC position: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [24]. - Spot - futures price difference: No specific content provided [27]. - Import profit: No specific content provided [30]. - Warehouse receipt: No specific content provided [21].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trades are recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with multiple factors affecting supply, demand, and price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Hints - Fundamental situation: Supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level, overall neutral [4]. - Basis: Spot price is 14,750, basis is - 1,155, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main positions: The main net position is short, and short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing, which is a bearish factor [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high, which is a bullish factor [6]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period, which is a bullish factor [29]. - Tire industry exports are falling, which is a bearish factor [32]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, which is a bearish factor [23][26]. - **Price** - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) fell on August 15 [8]. - The basis weakened on August 15 [35]. - **Inventory** - Exchange inventory has increased recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17]. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Bullish Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resilient spot prices [6]. - Anti - involution in the domestic market [6]. - **Bearish Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Qingdao area did not have seasonal inventory reduction [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: US retail sales continued to grow significantly, and the US consumer confidence in August unexpectedly declined while long - and short - term inflation expectations climbed. With the smooth meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, the gold price showed a slight oscillation. The premium of Shanghai gold remained at 0.2 yuan/gram. The gold price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the meeting among the US, Ukraine, and Europe [4]. - Silver: As US retail sales continued to grow significantly and the meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine was successful, the silver price oscillated following the gold price. The premium of Shanghai silver remained at around 395 yuan/kg. The silver price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the meeting among the US, Ukraine, and Europe [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US retail sales continued to grow significantly, the three major US stock indices closed with mixed results, the three major European stock indices also closed with mixed results, the US bond yields rose collectively (the 10 - year US bond yield rose 3.11 basis points to 4.318%), the US dollar index fell 0.36% to 97.8509, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1891, and the COMEX gold futures fell 0.04% to $3381.70 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by the same macro - factors, the COMEX silver futures fell 0.13% to $38.02 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.39 (spot was at a discount to futures, neutral); the inventory of gold futures increased by 300 kilograms to 36345 kilograms (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average (bearish); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - Silver: The basis, inventory, and other factors were also analyzed, but the specific content was not as detailed as that of gold. The silver price followed the gold price to oscillate [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - The US is to announce the expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, and the expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18; at 12:30, Japan's June tertiary industry activity index will be released; at 17:00, the eurozone's June unadjusted trade balance will be announced; at 22:00, the US August NAHB housing market index will be released; Trump will meet with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and European leaders in the Oval Office of the White House on the afternoon of the 18th [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation was affected by factors such as US retail sales, consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. The overall situation was neutral, and the price was expected to oscillate [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price oscillated following the gold price due to the significant growth of US retail sales and other factors [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 170 to 632,979 on August 15 compared with August 14, a decrease of 0.03%; the short - position volume decreased by 275 to 481,939, a decrease of 0.06%; the net position increased by 105 to 151,040, an increase of 0.07% [29]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 43,293 to 1,089,608 on August 15 compared with August 14, a decrease of 3.82%; the short - position volume decreased by 33,259 to 998,505, a decrease of 3.22%; the net position decreased by 10,034 to 91,103, a decrease of 9.92% [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For rebar, the fundamentals show weak demand, low - level inventory with a slight decrease, and weak purchasing willingness of traders. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory in major cities shows a mixed trend (up环比, down同比), the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillation considering the weak real - estate market and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, and exports are blocked. Domestic policies may play a role. It has a positive basis, inventory in major cities is decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, the price is below the 20 - day line with the line going up, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The market is also expected to be in high - level oscillation due to supply - demand weakening, export issues, and capacity - reduction plans [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is poor, downstream real - estate is in a downward cycle, inventory is at a low level and slightly decreasing, and trader purchasing willingness is weak [2]. - **Basis**: The rebar spot price is 3320, and the basis is 132, which is positive [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities is 314.93 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [2]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is negative [2]. - **Main Position**: The main rebar position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is negative [2]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand [2][3]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role, with a neutral assessment [6]. - **Basis**: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3460, and the basis is 21, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities is 277.49 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is positive [6]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is going up, with a neutral assessment [6]. - **Main Position**: The main hot - rolled coil position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is negative [6]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors are acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are that downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season and the outlook is pessimistic [6][7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logic currently is that the global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. The main risk factor is El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [3][4]. - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,600, with a basis of 66, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. Daily Views - Palm Oil - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [5]. - The spot price of palm oil is 9,500, with a basis of 40, indicating a neutral situation [5]. - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [5]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [5]. Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 143, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [6]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [6]. - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production reduction season [7]. - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply - Imported soybean inventory [8] - Soybean oil inventory [10] - Soybean meal inventory [12] - Oil mill soybean crushing [14] - Palm oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed oil inventory [22] - Rapeseed inventory [24] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [26] Demand - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel (2509), it is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply - demand situation shows an oversupply pattern, but short - term factors such as cost increases and potential consumption growth during the "Golden September and Silver October" need to be considered [2]. - For Stainless Steel (2510), it is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The short - term cost is rising slightly, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Nickel Futures**: On August 15, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 15,195 yuan, up 145 yuan. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,500 yuan, down 1,850 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: On August 15, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) was 13,750 yuan, down 50 yuan [12]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 15, the LME nickel inventory was 211,662 tons, an increase of 522 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel warehouse receipts were 22,141 tons, an increase of 1,421 tons. The total inventory was 233,803 tons, an increase of 1,943 tons [15]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 15, the inventory in Wuxi was 61.01 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 314,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,078,900 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 644,500 tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons [19]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipts on the futures market were 103,277 tons, a decrease of 244 tons [20]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 15, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel ferronickel was 925.5 yuan per nickel point, up 1 yuan [23]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,901 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,587 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,384 yuan [25]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 122,636 yuan per ton [29]. 3.7 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Positive Factors**: The expected consumption growth during the "Golden September and Silver October", the anti - involution policy, the firm price of nickel ore, and the slight rebound of downstream ferronickel prices, which led to a slight upward shift in the cost line [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, the lack of new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern, and the year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum show that carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real - estate market remains weak, and short - term macro sentiment is changeable; the basis indicates a neutral situation with the spot price slightly higher than the futures price; the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons; the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward; the main net position is long and increasing. Overall, carbon neutrality promotes changes in the aluminum industry, which is long - term positive for aluminum prices, while the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where multiple factors are intertwined, leading to an expected oscillatory movement of aluminum prices [2]. - There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand. Positive factors include carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts; negative factors are the unoptimistic global economy where high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, real - estate is weak, and short - term macro sentiment is changeable, rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 20710, with a basis of 10, indicating a slight premium over the futures price, rated as neutral [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory has increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons, rated as neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, rated as bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long and increasing, rated as bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon neutrality drives changes in the aluminum industry, which is long - term positive for aluminum prices. The US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a mixed situation, and aluminum prices are expected to move oscillatory [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - Negative Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption; the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - Spot Price: Shanghai and Nanchu's prices were 70770 and 70690 respectively, with a decline of 375 and 450; today's Yangtze River price is 70870, with a decline of 400 [4]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts and LME inventory (daily) had changes of 699 and - 425 respectively; LME inventory (daily) and SHFE inventory (weekly) had a change of 29728 [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2024, the supply - demand situation of aluminum in China has been changing. In 2018, the production was 3609 million tons, the net import was 7.03 million tons, the apparent consumption was 3615.03 million tons, the actual consumption was 3662.63 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons. By 2024, the production is expected to be 4312.27 million tons, the net import is 196.16 million tons, the apparent consumption is 4502.5 million tons, the actual consumption is 4487.5 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is 15 million tons [22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-18 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1088元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1211元/吨，基差为-123元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6342.60万重量箱，较前一周增加2.55%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：宏观利好消退，玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：山西停产检修煤矿较多，多数煤矿库存低位，炼焦煤供应增量有限。下游焦企及中间商仍 存谨慎心态，维持小单刚需采购，线上竞拍资源由于投机情绪减弱，价格涨跌互现，整体溢价范围收窄。 但在煤矿查超产及保安全影响下，坑口焦煤价格坚挺，部分煤种小幅调整；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1190，基差-40；现货贴水期货；偏空 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-18） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：由于焦炭第六轮提涨落地，焦化利润好转， ...