Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The basis shows a discount to futures, and the inventory situation is complex. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, but the main position has turned from long to short. Overall, with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances, the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. - There are both global policy easing and trade - war escalation factors affecting the copper market [3]. - In 2024, the copper market will have a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental analysis of copper shows a neutral situation as supply has disturbances, and the manufacturing PMI has improved [2]. - The basis is - 180, indicating a neutral situation with the spot price at 88190 and a discount to futures [2]. - On October 27, copper inventory decreased by 375 to 135975 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5448 tons to 104792 tons compared to last week, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upward, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The main net position is short after changing from long, indicating a bearish sign [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The factors affecting the copper market include global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus in the copper market, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank will resume trading of treasury bonds in the open market. Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, with the decline intensifying in the evening. Treasury bond futures rose collectively, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.32%. The central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 148.3 billion yuan. The inter - bank market liquidity tightened significantly, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions jumped more than 13bp to 1.45% [2]. - The central bank has increased the amount of MLF renewals for the eighth consecutive month. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but remained below the boom - bust line. The CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI's year - on - year increase expanded for the fifth consecutive month. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, the first cut this year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The central bank's actions led to changes in bond yields and futures prices. The 30 - year "25 Extra - long Special Treasury Bond 06" yield declined by 5.75bp, and the 10 - year "25 Coupon - bearing Treasury Bond 16" yield declined by 5bp. Treasury bond futures rose, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.32% [2]. - **Funding situation**: On October 27, the central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 148.3 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The TS main contract basis was - 0.0023 (spot discount to futures, bearish). The TF main contract basis was 0.0850 (spot premium to futures, somewhat bullish). The T main contract basis was 0.1987 (spot premium to futures, bullish), and the TL main contract basis was 0.3712 (spot premium to futures, bullish) [2]. - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, a neutral situation [3]. - **Market trend**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above their 20 - day moving averages, and the 20 - day moving averages were upward, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - **Main positions**: The TS and TF main contracts had net long positions, with long positions increasing. The T main contract had a net long position, but long positions decreased [4]. - **Contract data**: | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Change in Open Interest | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.175 | 0.15% | 75942 | 229240 | 2285 | 220017.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 105.745 | 0.12% | 58124 | 134170 | 4746 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.388 | 0.05% | 29975 | 67050 | - 122 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 115.40 | 0.32% | 113706 | 141776 | 2710 | 220008.IB | [7] 3.2. Spot Bond Analysis - No specific text - based analysis of spot bonds is provided, but there are charts related to DR interest rates, inter - bank treasury bond yields, and treasury bond term spreads [8][11][12]. 3.3. Basis Analysis - There are charts showing the basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year CFFEX treasury bond futures [14][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, influenced by the industry symposium, the futures market was significantly boosted, but the spot basis changed little. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis will have limited improvement [5]. - For MEG, with the concentrated arrival of foreign ships this week, port inventories are expected to increase significantly. The overall inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is about 400,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term price will be adjusted within a range, with continuous upward pressure [6]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the market rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the industry symposium, the PTA futures rose sharply after the afternoon opening. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis stabilized. The trading price range was around 4,440 - 4,565, and the mainstream spot basis was at 01 - 81 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4,490, and the 01 - contract basis was - 126, with the futures at a discount, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 4.07 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Main positions**: The net short position decreased, which is a bearish factor [5]. - **Expectation**: The PTA futures were boosted by the symposium, but the spot basis changed little. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis will have limited improvement [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the market negotiation was fair. The basis of spot goods was high, and some traders participated in replenishment. In the afternoon, the market rose strongly, and the high - level spot transaction reached over 4,225 yuan/ton [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4,183, and the 01 - contract basis was 74, with the futures at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 481,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short position decreased, which is a bearish factor [6]. - **Expectation**: With the concentrated arrival of foreign ships this week, port inventories are expected to increase significantly. The overall inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is about 400,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term price will be adjusted within a range, with continuous upward pressure [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Positive factors**: The oil price rebounded by more than 7% last week, the largest single - week increase in the second half of the year. Sanctions against Russia were the main driver, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations also improved market expectations [8]. - **Negative factors**: A new 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started production last weekend and has now produced products [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply, demand, inventory, and other data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply, demand, inventory, and other data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, production, imports, consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as the basis and profit data of futures contracts [13].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from the high level, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, but the market is expected to warm up in the short term. It is predicted that the UR contract will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. - Bullish factors include strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production. Bearish factor is domestic oversupply [5]. Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is down slightly. Agricultural demand rebounds, industrial demand is weak, export volume increases. Domestic market is oversupplied, but short - term market is expected to warm up. Spot price of delivery product is 1590 (+20), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of UR2601 contract is - 50, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract rebounds on the disk. Industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand rebounds, international urea prices are strong, and export volume increases. The domestic market is still significantly oversupplied, and the price is expected to warm up in the short term, with a predicted volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. Spot and Futures Data | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | **Spot** | Spot delivery product price is 1590 (+20), Shandong spot price is 1610 (+40), Henan spot price is 1590 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2666 [6]. | | **Futures** | UR01 contract price is 1640 (- 2), UR05 contract price is 1713 (- 6), UR09 contract price is 1745 (- 3). The basis of UR01 is - 50 (+22) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 5288 (- 119), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons, UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is less than expected, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. Overall supply is at a high level. Downstream float glass supply has many disturbances, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. Soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1246 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 56 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price. It is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized [3]. - Bearish factors: Main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved. Risk points include that the cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macro - level positive factors exceed expectations [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1229 | 1180 | - 49 | | Current Value | 1246 | 1190 | - 56 | | Change Rate | 1.38% | 0.85% | 14.29% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 92.40 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 199 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a historical low [15]. - Weekly industry operating rate: 84.94% [18]. - Weekly output: 740,600 tons, including 410,000 tons of heavy - quality soda ash. The output is at a historical high [20]. - New production capacity in 2023 was 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Weekly sales - to - production ratio: 99.78% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% has stabilized. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [27]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: October 28, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend today. This is due to the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US negotiations, the new round of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and the continuation of the peak demand season for agricultural films and support from downstream peak seasons [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, the peak demand season for agricultural films continues with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed stocking and production has declined. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7020 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China - US talks; negative factors include weaker demand compared to the same period and more new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The cost support from crude oil is limited. The China - US talks reached a preliminary consensus, and new sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, the plastic weaving industry is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6630 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 69, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 63.9 million tons (-4.0), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors are the same as LLDPE; negative factors also include weaker demand compared to the same period and more new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, the demand picked up, and the cost support rose. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9035 for the 2601 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, while the demand is expected to recover in the medium - term. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51485 - 53125 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy showed different trends [6]. - **Cost**: The production in Xinjiang's sample oxygen - passing 553 was at a loss of 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - **Base Difference**: On October 24, the spot price in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was 380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons. The main port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - **Expected Trend**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9035 for the 2601 contract [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's output was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The planned output for October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The output of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends in production and inventory. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is currently at a loss, while the production of components is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Base Difference**: On October 24, the N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was 675 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Expected Trend**: The supply is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, while the demand is expected to recover in the medium - term. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51485 - 53125 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures closing prices of most contracts decreased, and the base difference of some contracts increased. The inventory and production showed different trends in different regions [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures closing prices of most contracts decreased, and the base difference, inventory, and production of related products also showed different trends [17]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - base difference and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production, and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through charts [20][25][29][36]. - **Polysilicon**: The disk price trend, price - base difference trend, and inventory trend are presented through charts [22][23]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, consumption, import, and export of industrial silicon in different periods [39][42]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, consumption, import, and export of polysilicon in different periods [68]. 3.6 Downstream Product Trends - **Organic Silicon**: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products are presented through charts [45][47][52]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy are presented through charts [55][58][59]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: The trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry are presented through charts [71][74][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods is weakening. This week, the supply pressure has decreased, but it is expected to increase next week. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4679 - 4737. The report also lists the positive factors such as supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, as well as the negative factors such as the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [6] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, unchanged from last week. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene method enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [6] - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工rate was 49.86%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase, higher than the historical average. Downstream profiles开工rate was 35.87%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Downstream pipes开工rate was 41.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Downstream film开工rate was 72.5%, unchanged, higher than the historical average. Downstream paste resin开工rate was 58.76%, a 2.47 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous, but the current demand may remain weak [6] - **Cost**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2350.05 yuan/ton, unchanged, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6] - **Basis**: On October 24, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4670 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis was - 38 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [6] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 333,800 tons, a 7.35% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 252,100 tons, a 9.02% month - on - month decrease. Ethylene method factory inventory was 81,700 tons, a 1.80% month - on - month decrease. Social inventory was 554,700 tons, a 0.26% month - on - month decrease. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a 6.66% month - on - month decrease, showing a neutral situation [6] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract futures price closed below MA20, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The main position has a net short position, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [6] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Presents the previous day's PVC market data, including the values, previous values, and price changes of various indicators such as enterprises, partial monthly spreads, East China SG - 5, national calcium carbide method, national ethylene method, downstream开工rates, futures closing prices, and inventory data [12] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical data of PVC basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025 [15] - **Price and Volume Trend**: Displays the price, trading volume, and open interest changes of PVC futures from September to October 2025, as well as the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [18] - **Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical data of the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [21] 3.4 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工rate, inventory, and daily output of lancoke from 2020 to 2025 [24] - **Calcium Carbide**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [27] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [29] - **Caustic Soda**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [31][33][34] 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - Displays the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [35][36][39] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Displays the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工rate, and开工rates of various downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [41][42][49] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [53] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Displays the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025 [55] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025 [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure remains high, and the demand - side recovery is weak. The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost support will strengthen in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The asphalt 2601 is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 3277 - 3321 [8][12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthening expectations of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74%. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt was 9.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 12.0898%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 32%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [8]. 3.1.2 Basis - On October 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 51 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a positive basis [8]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; factory inventory was 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. Social inventory and factory inventory continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. 3.1.4 Disk - The MA20 line was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 line, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The net long position of the main players increased, showing a bullish signal [8]. 3.1.6 Expectation - Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand fails to meet expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, and crude oil prices are strengthening. Cost support will strengthen in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The asphalt 2601 is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 3277 - 3321 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview, including the values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as the 01 - 10 contracts, social inventory, weekly inventory, weekly output, etc. For example, the 01 contract value was 3299, with a previous value of 3277, an increase of 2, and an increase rate of 0.67% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 are shown [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [30][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: The profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The spread trend of coking - asphalt profit from 2020 to 2025 is shown [39][40][41]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown [44][45]. - **Output**: The weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [47][48]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The output of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown [57][58]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is presented [59][60]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are shown [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is presented [69][70]. 3.5.4 Import and Export Situation - The export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][77]. 3.5.5 Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The output of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86][88][89]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream asphalt products (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 to 2025 are presented [93][94][96][97][98][99][100][101]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [103][104].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Morning Report - October 27, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - IC2512 has a discount of 98.73 points, and IM2512 has a discount of 121.24 points, indicating a bearish signal [3] - The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized technological self - reliance, which drove the technology and communication sectors to strengthen. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a preliminary consensus, and the market is expected to open higher. It is recommended to reduce positions appropriately on rallies [3] - The margin trading balance is 24,339 billion yuan, a decrease of 16 billion yuan, showing a neutral signal [3] - IH2512 has a premium of 2.78 points, and IF2512 has a discount of 25.88 points, presenting a neutral situation [3] - In terms of the market performance, IH > IC > IF > IM, and IH, IF, IC, and IM are above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [3] - The main positions of IF and IC have reduced long positions, while the main positions of IH have increased long positions, showing a bullish signal [3] - The Fourth Plenary Session set the tone of supply security priority, manufacturing, technological self - reliance, and expanding domestic demand. The technology sector will rebound. With the preliminary consensus reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, it is recommended to reduce positions on significant intraday rallies. The short - term index will maintain high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of this month [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Futures Contract Data**: Data such as contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, premium/discount ratios, annualized premium/discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms are provided for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts of different expiration dates [4] - **Base and Spread Charts**: Charts of the base and spread of the Shanghai 50 Index and the CSI 500 Index are presented, showing their historical trends [6][9] Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price change rates of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, Wande All - A, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext 50, and ChiNext Index are shown [12] - **Style Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price change rates of style indexes including cyclical, non - cyclical, low - P/E ratio, large - cap, small - cap, value, high - P/E ratio, medium - P/E ratio, and growth indexes are presented [15][18] Market Structure - **AH Share Premium/Discount**: The historical trend chart of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is provided, reflecting the premium/discount situation of AH shares [21] - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: The historical trend chart of the P/E ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index is shown [24] - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The historical trend chart of the P/B ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index is presented [26] Market Capital - **Stock Market Capital Inflow**: The historical trend chart of A - share capital net inflow and the CSI 300 Index is provided, showing the capital flow situation in the stock market [28] - **Margin Trading Balance**: The historical trend chart of the margin trading balance and the CSI 300 Index is presented, reflecting the margin trading situation [30] - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: The historical trend chart of the net inflow of northbound capital is shown [32] - **Fund Cost**: The historical trend chart of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates is presented, reflecting the short - term fund cost [38] Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The historical trend charts of the turnover rates (based on free - floating market value) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are provided, reflecting the trading activity in the market [41][44] - **Public Mixed - Fund Positions**: Although the title is given, the specific content seems incomplete [46] Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield**: The historical trend chart of the dividend yields of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 Indexes and the ten - year Treasury yield is presented [50] - **Exchange Rate**: The historical trend chart of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan exchange rate is provided [52] - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: Although the title is given, the specific content seems incomplete [53] - **Newly Established Fund Scale Changes**: The titles of the newly established scale changes of stock - type, mixed - type, and bond - type funds are given, but the specific content seems incomplete [55][57][59]