Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure and spot spreads remain unchanged due to weak demand and sufficient supply. In August, Singapore is expected to receive about 2.8 - 2.9 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargo from the West, higher than 2.3 - 2.4 million tons in July. The spot discount of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has narrowed to $2.90/ton, the smallest since turning negative on July 1st [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 183 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 13th was 22.639 million barrels, an increase of 1.89 million barrels [3]. - The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions increasing, while the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long [3]. - The good atmosphere of the US - Russia talks reduces the probability of energy sanctions on Russia, pressuring upstream crude oil. There is a lack of demand - stimulating highlights in the shipping sector. In the short term, fuel oil will run weakly. FU2509 will operate in the range of 2670 - 2710, and LU2510 will operate in the range of 3430 - 3480 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The futures prices of FU and LU main contracts decreased slightly. The basis of FU increased by 3.98%, and that of LU increased by 23.39% [5]. - The spot prices of most fuel oil products changed slightly. The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil increased, while those of some others decreased slightly [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors: There is a possibility of increased sanctions on Russia [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamental situation of fuel oil is neutral. The supply and demand situation affects the market structure and spreads. The narrowing of the high - sulfur fuel oil spot discount is due to strong buying from Trafigura Group [3]. - The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [3]. - The inventory increase is a bearish factor [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No detailed spread data analysis is provided other than the mention of the high - low sulfur futures spread in the title [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has shown fluctuations. In the week of August 13th, it increased significantly to 22.639 million barrels [3][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term processing margin remains low, some PTA devices are under maintenance, and polyester load is rising, so there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in August. However, oil prices are under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on oil prices and changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, last week, the polyester load rebounded to around 89.4%, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, so the demand support is gradually strengthening. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in pricing, and the port shipments will improve. The port inventory is not expected to rise significantly from August to September. It is expected that the MEG price will adjust within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the rebound speed of polyester load and commodity trends [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, some polyester factories made bids. The August cargo was negotiated and traded at a discount of 12 - 15 to the 09 contract, with some slightly higher, and the price negotiation range was around 4630 - 4680. The mid - September cargo was traded at 09 + 0, and the end - September cargo was traded at 09 + 5. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 13 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4646, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 57, with the futures price at a discount [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, short - term price fluctuation and basis range - bound movement are expected [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the market trading was average. The spot was negotiated at a premium of 85 - 89 yuan/ton to the 09 contract, and the basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a low level, and the recent mainstream negotiation price for shipments was around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton, with light trading and mainly wait - and - see from buyers [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4465, and the basis of the 09 contract is 89, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, short - term price range adjustment is expected [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance Tables**: The report provides PTA and ethylene glycol supply - demand balance tables from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [10][11] - **Price - related Data**: There are data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, and processing margins from 2019 - 2025 [14][17][21] - **Inventory Analysis Data**: It includes inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [40][42][45] - **Capacity Utilization Data**: There are capacity utilization data of polyester upstream and downstream industries from 2020 - 2025 [51][55] - **Profit Data**: It provides profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from 2022 - 2025 [61][62][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to trend sideways today. The "anti-involution" policy-driven price increases have subsided, crude oil prices are falling, and while downstream demand for PP is slightly improving, the overall demand for LLDPE's agricultural film is below expectations, with neutral industrial inventories [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, in contraction for four consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The "anti-involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it reverted to fundamentals. Short-term oil prices are oscillating downward. On the supply and demand side, the overall demand for agricultural film is below expectations, and the film production start-up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,250 (-30), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -101, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 505,000 tons (-71,000), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a neutral stance [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. After the "anti-involution" policy-driven price increase subsided, crude oil prices fell, and the demand for agricultural film was below expectations. With neutral industrial inventories, the PE market is expected to trend sideways today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand and falling crude oil prices are negative factors. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in July, China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were in contraction. Exports increased year-on-year. The "anti-involution" policy's impact faded. Short-term oil prices are falling. On the supply and demand side, downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7,100 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 16, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, considered neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 588,000 tons (+1,000), indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a neutral stance [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating. After the "anti-involution" policy-driven price increase subsided, crude oil prices fell, while downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. With neutral industrial inventories, the PP market is expected to trend sideways today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand and falling crude oil prices are negative factors. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [9]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7,250 (-30), the 01 contract price is 7,351 (+8), the basis is -101 (-38), the warehouse receipt quantity is 7,345 (unchanged), and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 505,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7,100 (unchanged), the 01 contract price is 7,084 (-1), the basis is 16 (+1), the warehouse receipt quantity is 12,860 (unchanged), and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 588,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also increased. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to be mainly in a volatile operation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level in the same period [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: With few alkali plant overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,395 yuan/ton, the basis is - 115 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash feature strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high in the same period; heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass production has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,400 yuan/ton to 1,395 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%; the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,280 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from - 120 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.17% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 5. Fundamentals - Supply - Soda ash production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by North China ammonia - soda method is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production method is - 41 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Soda ash operating rate and production capacity: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally; the weekly production of soda ash is 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19]. - Soda ash industry production capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with the actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 6. Fundamentals - Demand - Soda ash sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [23]. - Soda ash downstream demand: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34%; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 7. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate over the years [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Brazilian central - south region produced 19.27 million tons of sugar cumulatively by the end of July this crushing season, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. In China, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season as of the end of July 2025 was 11.1621 million tons, with cumulative sales of 9.5498 million tons and a sales rate of 85.6%. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June 2025, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, while the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4][5]. - The basis is 376 (for the 01 contract) with spot price in Liuzhou at 6040, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The industrial inventory as of the end of July in the 24/25 crushing season was 1.61 million tons, also bullish. The 20 - day moving average on the disk is flat, and the k - line is near it, a neutral signal. The main positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing and an unclear main trend, which is bearish. After a short - term rebound, the international sugar price has fallen back below 17 cents per pound. The SR01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate in the range of 5600 - 5700 in the short term [6]. - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US Coke formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, the international sugar price below 17 cents per pound opening the import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian central - south sugar production decreased by 7.8% year - on - year by the end of July this season. China's 24/25 season sugar production, sales, and import data are as mentioned above [4][5]. - **Basis**: The basis in Liuzhou is 376 (01 contract), bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: Industrial inventory as of the end of July was 1.61 million tons, bullish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the k - line is near it, neutral [6]. - **Main Positions**: Positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, and the main trend is unclear [6]. - **Expectation**: International sugar price rebounds briefly and then falls below 17 cents per pound. SR01 of Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate between 5600 - 5700 in the short term [6]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions predict a surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market, with Green Pool forecasting a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA 1.1397 million tons, Czarnikow 780,000 tons, and Datagro 258,000 tons [36]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: Sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be 11.2 million tons, with imports of 5 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 is expected to be weak with oscillations. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc moving in an oscillatory manner, closing with a small positive line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions adding, with the short side increasing slightly more. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, while short - term indicators like KDJ are declining, and the trend indicators show that the long and short forces are in a stalemate [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, leading to a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price of zinc is 22480, and the basis is - 50, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 15, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1125 tons to 76325 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2923 tons to 20020 tons compared to the previous day. The social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets has been increasing from August 4 to August 14 [2][6]. 3.4 Market Quotes - On August 15, the trading data of zinc futures contracts with different delivery months on the futures exchange showed various price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the 2510 contract had an opening price of 22500, a high of 22600, a low of 22485, and a closing price of 22530, with a trading volume of 69906 lots and an open interest of 91064 lots [3]. 3.5 Spot Market - On August 15, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic main spot markets, such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, etc., showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [4]. 3.6 Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices - On August 15, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters, including Hunan Zhuhongminrong, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 60 yuan/ton [16]. 3.7 Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 471800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and a 2.63% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470300 tons [18]. 3.8 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On August 15, zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions and for imports showed different price ranges and changes. For example, the import processing fee for 48% zinc concentrate increased by 5 dollars per thousand tons [20]. 3.9 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2510 on August 15, in terms of trading volume, ranking, and changes of futures companies, as well as long and short position rankings and changes, the total trading volume of 20 futures companies was 105489 lots, an increase of 20251 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 66046 lots, an increase of 4841 lots, and the total short - position volume was 59406 lots, an increase of 5213 lots [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for ferrosilicon manganese alloy has strengthened due to the high prices of manganese ore and coke recently. The alloy plants in the north and south markets have a good start - up sentiment. Factories mainly have short - term orders, and the spot inventory of factories in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is relatively low, mainly fulfilling forward orders. The start - up in Guangxi and Yunnan is gradually increasing. The increase in both the tender volume and price of Hegang has boosted market sentiment. However, the downstream steel mills in the north are affected by the news of production restrictions during the military parade in late August and early September, and the overall start - up of steel mills needs continuous tracking. Overall, the market sentiment is positive, and the short - term price of ferrosilicon manganese is expected to remain firm. It is expected that the price of ferrosilicon manganese will fluctuate this week, with SM2601 fluctuating between 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton [3]. - The spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 214 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [3]. - The inventory of 63 independent ferrosilicon manganese enterprises in the country is 221,800 tons, and the average available days of inventory for 50 steel mills in the country is 15.49 days, which is neutral [3]. - The MA20 is upward, but the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, which is neutral [3]. - The main position has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [3]. Summary by Related Catalog Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: There are charts showing the monthly capacity of Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises from 2016 - 06 to 2025 - 06, and the annual production of manganese - silicon in different regions of China from 2008 to 2025 [7][8]. - **Production - Annual**: There is relevant content about the annual production of manganese - silicon, but no specific data is summarized here [9]. - **Production - Weekly, Monthly, Start - up Rate**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly production of Chinese manganese - silicon and the weekly start - up rate of Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 01 - 01 [11]. - **Production - Regional Production**: There are charts showing the monthly production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tendering Purchase Price**: There are charts showing the monthly purchase prices of manganese - silicon 6517 by multiple steel companies such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, etc. from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 06 [16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: There are charts showing the weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 Chinese steel enterprises from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 01 - 01 [18]. - **Purchase Volume**: There are charts showing the monthly purchase volumes of manganese - silicon 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Shagang Co., Ltd., Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., etc., and the weekly demand for manganese - silicon in China from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 01 - 01 [14]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export There are charts showing the monthly import and export volumes of ferrosilicon manganese in China from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 01 [20]. Manganese Silicon Inventory There are charts showing the weekly inventory of 63 sample manganese - silicon enterprises in China, and the monthly average available days of inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region from 2019 - 09 - 30 to 2025 - 03 - 31 [22]. Manganese Silicon Cost - Manganese Ore - **Import Volume**: There are charts showing the monthly import volume of manganese ore in different trade ways, from Gabon, Africa, and Australia to China from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 04 [24]. - **Port Inventory and Available Days**: There are charts showing the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of inventory in China from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 01 - 01 [26]. - **High - Grade Ore Port Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore of different origins (Australia, Gabon, Brazil) in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 01 - 01 [28]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: There are charts showing the daily prices of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [29]. - **Regional Cost**: There are charts showing the daily costs of ferrosilicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [30]. Manganese Silicon Profit - Regional There are charts showing the daily profits of ferrosilicon manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 04 - 01 [32].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation, with high daily production and inventory, and weak demand in both the industrial and agricultural sectors. Although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The international urea price is relatively strong [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently, and after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the trend returned to fundamentals. Domestic supply shows high daily production and operating rates, and overall high inventory. In the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand significantly. The export profit has declined but is still strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 73, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to be volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1820 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1810 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2747 [6]. | | **Futures** | The price of the 01 contract is 1737 (+11), the basis is 73 (-11), UR05 is 1783 (+12), and UR09 is 1721 (+6) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 3573 (-250), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.459 million tons, UR factory inventory is 1.019 million tons, and UR port inventory is 440,000 tons [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The short - term trend of rapeseed meal is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, resulting in a short - term shock - strengthening pattern. [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell. The short - term shock - strengthening pattern is due to factors such as the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, high demand in the short - term, and low inventory. The price range for RM2601 is expected to be between 2540 and 2600. [8] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market while maintaining good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and import deposit collection has begun. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has the potential to rise, which supports commodity prices. [10] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, the spot is at a premium to the futures, the price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, and the oil mill's rapeseed meal inventory is not under pressure in the short term. Bearish factors: Rapeseed meal inventory has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, and the main short positions have increased with capital outflows. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is still uncertain. [8] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply - demand situation. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has affected the market. [10] - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 tons, a 18.52% week - on - week increase and a 14.29% year - on - year increase. [8] - **Price**: The spot price is 2640, with a basis of 34, indicating a premium to the futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. [8] 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and capital has flowed out. [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a range - bound and slightly bullish pattern. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. Factors include the uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas, high imports of Brazilian soybeans in China, and the influence of rapeseed meal [8]. - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state in the short - term. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4100. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the price [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Progress in China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, imports, and tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short - term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The short - term increase in soybean meal demand supports the price. Due to the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal continues to rise. Affected by the possible speculation on US soybean - growing weather and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is expected to oscillate bullishly in the short - term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a high - yield South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: The continuous expectation of a high - yield Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppress the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2980, with a basis of - 177, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 259, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main contracts have decreased, but capital has flowed in [8][10]. Other Data - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean harvest areas, inventory, production, consumption, etc., from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Provide data on soybean harvest areas, yields, production, inventory, exports, and consumption in the US from February to August 2025 [41]. - **Other Market Data**: Such as the export inspection volume of US soybeans, the arrival volume of imported soybeans, the inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, and the situation of the pig - farming market [42][44][45][50][52]