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大越期货螺卷早报-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:29
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For螺纹, with weak demand, low - rising inventory, and a continued downward cycle in the downstream real - estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset. The main factors are weak real - estate demand, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction [2]. - For热卷, due to weakening supply and demand, continued inventory reduction, export difficulties, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction, it should also be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Analysis - **螺纹**: Demand is poor, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is weak. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - **热卷**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, but domestic policies may play a role [7]. 2. Basis Analysis - **螺纹**: The spot price is 3240, and the basis is 107, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The spot price is 3350, and the basis is 5, which is neutral [7]. 3. Inventory Analysis - **螺纹**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 437.48 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - **热卷**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 337.57 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bearish [7]. 4. Disk Analysis - **螺纹**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **热卷**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [7]. 5. Main Position Analysis - **螺纹**: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **热卷**: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. 6. Factors Analysis - **螺纹** - Bullish factors: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [4]. - Bearish factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [4]. - **热卷** - Bullish factors: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [8]. - Bearish factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the expectation is pessimistic [9].
白糖早报-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounds, while in the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable. There is an increased probability of short - sellers re - entering the market when the price is above 5500 [5]. - Domestic consumption is good, inventory is decreasing, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change of the US cola formula to use sucrose is also beneficial. However, global sugar production is increasing, and there is an expected surplus in the new season. The foreign sugar price has fallen below 15 cents per pound, opening the import profit window and increasing import pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 2.77 - million - ton surplus, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis for the 01 contract is 286, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO expects a supply gap of 200,000 tons (nearly balanced), StoneX predicts a 2.77 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 7.4 - million - ton surplus, Datagro expects a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 4.2 - million - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 400,000 - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 1.15 - million - ton surplus [36]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production are relatively stable. Import volume is expected to be 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. 3.5 Position Data No detailed information provided on position data other than the main position being bearish.
PTA、MEG早报-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis has strengthened slightly due to the boost in downstream polyester sales this week. The market transaction focus has gradually shifted to November. In terms of absolute prices, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated this week, and port inventories are expected to increase significantly. The overall inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is around 400,000 tons, and domestic supply will be abundant in the later period. After the delivery cycle ends, spot buying in the trading sector will also weaken. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term, with continuous upward pressure [8]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and resistance levels above need to be monitored when the market rebounds [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, and the spot basis strengthened. Traders were the main participants in the negotiation. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. There were transactions at a discount of around 80 to the 01 contract this week, 72 - 77 next week, 70 in mid - November, 65 - 68 in late November, 50 in late December, and 56 for this week's warehouse receipts. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 76 to the 01 contract [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4535, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 101, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.07 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is decreasing, showing a slightly bearish situation [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and adjusted. The spot basis strengthened in the afternoon. The night - session opened lower and then rose, with light negotiation in the market. In the morning, the market was mainly in a weak correction. Spot negotiation and transactions were around a premium of 66 - 72 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the buying of recent goods was active, and the spot basis strengthened to around a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, with fair trading in the market. In the US dollar market, the center of the external market of ethylene glycol adjusted slightly. Near noon, recent shipments fell to around 488 - 490 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in inquiries at low prices. In the afternoon, the market rebounded, and recent shipments were negotiated at around 492 - 493 US dollars/ton, with slightly stalemated negotiation [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4158, and the basis of the 01 contract is 58, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 481,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous period, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a negative factor [9]. - **Main positions**: The main net short position is increasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. 3.3今日关注 - **Positive factors**: A new 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China was put into production last weekend and has started to produce products [10]. - **Negative factors**: The 3.6 - million - ton capacity of Yisheng New Materials has reached full load, and the capacities of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plants have increased [11]. 3.4基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory changes [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on EG production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, port inventory, and inventory changes [14]. 3.5 Other Data The report also includes data on bottle - chip prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, spot spreads, inventory of related products in the polyester industry chain, upstream and downstream operating rates, and profit margins from 2020 to 2025 [16 - 64].
大越期货油脂早报-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:28
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors include the historically high prices of edible oils, continuous inventory accumulation of domestic edible oils, weak macroeconomics, and high expected production of related edible oils [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequent entry into the production reduction season will reduce the supply pressure of palm oil [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,322, with a basis of 190, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequent entry into the production increase season will increase the supply of palm oil [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,870, with a basis of 28, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 9,000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. Subsequent entry into the production increase season will increase the supply of palm oil [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,905, with a basis of 380, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4] Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Related to the supply of edible oils, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the text [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: The inventory situation on September 22 is mentioned in the daily view of soybean oil [2] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: There are graphs showing the inventory from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [9][10] - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: There are graphs showing the situation from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [11][12] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: The inventory situation on September 22 is mentioned in the daily view of palm oil [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: The inventory situation on September 22 is mentioned in the daily view of rapeseed oil [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: There are graphs showing the inventory from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [21][22] - **Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory**: There are graphs showing the inventory from 2015 - 2019, but specific data analysis is not provided [23][24] Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: There are graphs showing the consumption from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: There are graphs showing the consumption from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [15][16]
大越期货天胶早报-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:28
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot prices strong, domestic inventories decreasing, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is -875, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventories and Qingdao region inventories are both decreasing, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, showing a neutral state [4]. - The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on October 29th. The basis weakened on October 29th [8][35]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories and Qingdao region inventories are both in a state of continuous destocking [14][17]. - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production and tire industry exports have reached new highs for the same period [23][29][32]. Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6].
焦煤焦炭早报(2025-10-30)-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:28
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报(2025-10-30) 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤: 6、预期:下游焦企利润修复,原料煤库存保持低位,对原料煤多维持适量补库。但由于盈利不佳,补 库动力不足,考虑目前仍处于补库周期,且焦炭价格仍有走强预期,对原料煤价格形成一定支撑,预计 短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面:主产地环保、安全等方面措施进一步加强,煤矿生产依然受限。近期下游企业及贸易商对 焦煤采购量有所增多,煤矿新订单增加,煤矿产地库存快速消耗,带动矿方报价坚挺。加之主流大矿线 上竞拍成交价格也继续探涨,炼焦煤市场整体交投氛围良好,但由于终端利润薄弱,近期涨幅有所收窄 偏多 2、基差:现货市场价1380,基差78;现货升水期货;偏多 3、库存:钢厂库存781.1万吨,港口库存295万 ...
铁矿石早报(2025-10-30)-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:28
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level at ports this month has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories have decreased, there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, and the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 845, with a basis of 41; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 864, with a basis of 60, showing that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Regarding inventories, port inventories are 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The market price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand will decline, and the plan to reduce production capacity will impact the market, suggesting a high - level consolidation strategy [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Related Indicators - Iron ore port spot prices [8] - Iron ore futures - spot basis [13] - Iron ore import profit [16] - Iron ore shipping volume [19] - Iron ore port inventories and steel mill inventories [23] - Iron ore arrival and port clearance volume [28] - Iron ore daily consumption [31] - Steel enterprise production situation [33] - Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal production [36]
工业硅期货早报-20251029
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 03:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon increased last week, with demand also rising. The inventory situation varies among different downstream sectors. The cost support has increased, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8850 - 9060. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, such as cost - rising support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply of polysilicon decreased slightly last week, but the October production plan is expected to increase. The demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends, with some experiencing production cuts. The cost is stable, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53540 - 55170 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased, but different downstream sectors have different inventory and profit situations [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On October 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 345 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease; the main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The 2601 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8850 - 9060 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The October production plan is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends. Some are in a loss - making state, and the production plans for October have decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1375 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [8]. - **Expectation**: The short - term supply schedule will increase, and the medium - term is expected to adjust. The short - term production of downstream products will decrease, and the medium - term is expected to recover. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and the cost support is stable. The 2601 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 53540 - 55170 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of different contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon have minor fluctuations. The inventory situation of different regions and ports also shows different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of different contracts of polysilicon have decreased to varying degrees. The production, inventory, and export volume of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends [17]. 3.3 Other Information - There are also various trend charts in the report, including price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance trends of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [19][22][25].
大越期货原油早报-20251029
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:55
CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512: 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-29原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 1.基本面:德国经济和能源部长莱歇告诉路透,美国政府已书面保证,俄油在德国的业务将免受新的 能源制裁,因为这些资产已不再由俄罗斯控制;以色列总理内塔尼亚胡下令军方立即在加沙发动"强 力打击",以回应士兵在加沙遇袭事件,此举重新引发了市场对中东供应的担忧;印度石油公司高 管:绝不会完全停止购买俄罗斯原油;中性 2.基差:10月28日,阿曼原油现货价为65.60美元/桶,卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.70美元/桶,基差 22.24元/桶,现货升水期货;偏多 3.库存:美国截至10月24日当周API原油库存减少4 ...
大越期货PVC期货早报-20251029
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:53
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看,据隆众统计,2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨,环比减少2.05%;本周样本企业产 能利用率为76.57%,环比减少0.00个百分点;电石法企业产量31.628万吨,环比减少0.45%,乙烯 法企业产量15.036万吨,环比增加0.47%;本周供给压力有所减少;下周预计检修有所减少,预计 排产少量增加。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为49.86%,环比增加.27个百分点,高于历史平均水平;下游型材开 工率为35.87%,环比增加.61个百分点,低于历史平均水平;下游管材开工率为41.2%,环比增 加.2个百分点,低于历史平均水平;下游薄膜开工 ...