Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus amount. The price of foreign sugar has rebounded briefly and then fallen back below 17 cents per pound. Zhengzhou Sugar 01 currently follows the trend of foreign sugar and may fluctuate in the range of 5,600 - 5,700 in the short term [5][8][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Negative factors include the increase in global sugar production, a new year of global supply surplus, and the opening of the import profit window due to the low price of foreign sugar [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review The report does not contain content related to the previous day's review. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: StoneX has revised down the global sugar market supply surplus for the 25/26 season by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China for the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, with a sales rate of 85.6%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 390,000 tons, and imported 115,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 103,200 tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,040 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 381 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory for the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.61 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a net short - position increase. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: After a brief rebound, foreign sugar has fallen back below 17 cents per pound. Zhengzhou Sugar 01 currently follows the trend of foreign sugar and may fluctuate in the range of 5,600 - 5,700 in the short term [5]. 3. Today's Focus The report does not contain content related to today's focus. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 780,000 tons, and Datagro predicts a surplus of 258,000 tons [36]. - **Sugar Production and Consumption in China**: The sugar - cane and sugar - beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production in China from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are provided. The expected sugar production in 2025/26 is 11.2 million tons, with an expected consumption of 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Cost of Imported Raw Sugar Processing**: The cost of imported raw sugar processing after tax (50% tariff) from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided. The cost has generally shown a downward trend, affected by factors such as Brazilian production data and global production expectations [42]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, with a net short - position increase, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For rebar, the demand shows no improvement, the inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory showing positive signs, a neutral market trend, and a net short position of the main contract increasing, it is expected that the real estate market will remain weak, future demand will cool down, and the domestic plan to cut production capacity will impact the market. Therefore, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may come into play. With a positive basis, inventory showing positive signs, a neutral market trend, and a net short position of the main contract decreasing, it is expected that market supply and demand will weaken, exports will be blocked, and the domestic plan to cut production capacity will impact the market. A high - level oscillation approach should also be adopted [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is poor, inventory is at a low level and slightly decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is weak. The downstream real estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3320, and the basis is 131, which is positive [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 314.93 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [2]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a neutral trend [2]. - **Main Contract Position**: The main contract of rebar has a net short position, and the short position is increasing, which is negative [2]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic production - capacity reduction expectations [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downward cycle of the downstream real estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [3]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may come into play, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the basis is 18, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 277.49 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and year - on - year, which is positive [6]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Contract Position**: The main contract of hot - rolled coils has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing, which is negative [6]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic production - capacity reduction expectations [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overnight crude oil stabilized and rebounded. Russia extended the gasoline export ban. The market is waiting for the US - Russia summit in Alaska. Trump is optimistic about the success of the talks, but the US does not rule out sanctions. Putin positively evaluated the efforts made by the US, and the economic envoy of the Kremlin expects it may promote the restart of Russia - US relations. Short - term oil prices face significant fluctuations. Short - term prices are expected to move in the range of 485 - 495, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The US July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, far exceeding economists' expectations. Russia may extend the full ban on gasoline exports until September. Trump said he believes Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine, but achieving peace may require a second meeting including Ukrainian leaders. It is rated as neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On August 14, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $67.94 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $67.12 per barrel. The basis was 19.48 yuan/barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, rated as neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 1.519 million barrels, while the expected decrease was 0.941 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.036 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 0.275 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.045 million barrels. As of August 14, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, rated as bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, rated as bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased, rated as bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump believes Putin will reach an agreement in the meeting, estimating a 25% risk of failure. The "Trump - Putin meeting" on Friday is seen as paving the way for a second meeting. The US temporarily waived some sanctions on Russia for the meeting, but also warned of possible sanctions. Russia showed a relatively positive attitude [5]. - Fed Chair candidate David Zervos believes the Fed is late in approving interest rate cuts and advocates for radical easing policies to prevent labor market slowdown and create 1 million jobs [5]. - Bank of America maintains a bearish forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2025, expecting an average price of $63.50 per barrel and a possible drop below $60. It predicts an oil supply surplus of 0.89 million barrels per day from July 2025 to June 2026, which may lead to a global oil inventory increase of about 100 million barrels [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to be achieved; the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are reduced, and the risk of trade tariff issues rises. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil were $65.63, $62.65, 490.5 yuan, and $68.46 respectively, with changes of - $0.49 (- 0.74%), - $0.52 (- 0.82%), - 3.80 yuan (- 0.77%), and + $0.48 (+ 0.71%) compared to the previous day [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oils changed by - $0.65 (- 0.96%), - $0.52 (- 0.82%), - $1.13 (- 1.64%), - $1.01 (- 1.56%), and - $1.16 (- 1.69%) respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 1.519 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 156,023, an increase of 2,692 [18]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 261,352, an increase of 33,959 [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats will fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose with stable supply. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the leadership of the rapeseed sector. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,600, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: Soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results with less - than - expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 32, indicating a neutral situation [3] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: Palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,150 - 9,550 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above, indicating neutral fundamentals and increasing palm oil supply later [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,000, with a basis of 160, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: Rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely**: The US soybean stocks - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production - reduction season [5] - **Unlikely**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall analysis of cotton is neutral, with multiple factors showing both positive and negative signals. The US Department of Agriculture's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should focus on the battle at the 14,000 mark in the short - term. If it can stand above 14,000, there is upward momentum; otherwise, the future trend will be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. The USDA's August report shows a production of 2539.2 million tons and consumption of 2568.8 million tons, with an ending inventory of 1609.3 million tons. The rural department's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 625 million tons, import of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and ending inventory of 823 million tons. Overall, it is considered neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,214, with a basis of 1059 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast of ending inventory is 823 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is bullish, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The US Department of Agriculture's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The short - term focus of the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract is on the 14,000 mark [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Forecast**: In August, the total global cotton production is 2539.2 million tons (a decrease of 39.1 million tons from July), consumption is 2568.8 million tons (a decrease of 3 million tons from July), and ending inventory is 1609.3 million tons (a decrease of 74.2 million tons from July) [10]. - **ICAC Global Forecast**: For the 2025/26 period, global production is 2590 million tons (an increase of 40 million tons or 1.6% year - on - year), consumption is 2560 million tons (basically flat), ending inventory is 1710 million tons (an increase of 26 million tons or 1.6% year - on - year), and global trade volume is 970 million tons (an increase of 36 million tons or 3.9% year - on - year) [12]. - **Chinese Ministry of Agriculture Forecast**: In July 2025/26, production is 625 million tons, import is 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 823 million tons [4]. - **Other Data**: In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China's cotton imports were 3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%; cotton yarn imports were 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is bullish [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the overall current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The basis on August 14 shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - The expectation is that the refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side Analysis**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average level [7]. - **Cost - side Analysis**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Basis Analysis**: On August 14, the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - **Expectation Analysis**: The refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. - **Likely Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand for high - priced goods is insufficient, the overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [12]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including the price changes of different contracts, weekly inventory changes (including in - plant inventory, social inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory), and the price changes of different types of asphalt (such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt) [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong basis and the East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crude oil crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][41] - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45] - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][49] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57] - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64] - **Social Inventory and In - plant Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66] - **In - plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation** - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][76] - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume, and the roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It presents the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][97] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from August 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103][104]

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on Shanghai nickel and stainless steel dated August 15, 2025, provided by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Shanghai Nickel 2509 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3] - Stainless Steel 2510 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5] Summary by Directory Shanghai Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The external market has fallen significantly, with prices below the 20 - day moving average. There was a shipment of Norwegian nickel slabs last week, increasing supply. The ore price is stable, and the ferronickel price has a slight increase. The cost line has stabilized and rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has declined. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Overall, it is bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price is 123,350, and the basis is 2,150, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 211,140 (+42), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,720 (+142), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is stable, ocean freight has decreased slightly, and the ferronickel price has a slight increase. The cost line has risen slightly, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Overall, it is neutral [5] - **Basis**: The average stainless - steel price is 13,850, and the basis is 825, which is bullish [5] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 103,521 (+3), which is bearish [5] - **Market**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5] Multi - and Short - term Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [8] - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, with no new demand growth points. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries has increased [8] Price Overview - **Nickel**: On August 14, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,200 (-1,140 compared to August 13), and the LME nickel was at 15,050 (-190). The spot prices of SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans all decreased [13] - **Stainless Steel**: On August 14, the stainless - steel main contract was at 13,025 (-105 compared to August 13), and the spot prices of cold - rolled coils in different regions remained unchanged [13] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 14, LME inventory was 211,140 (+42), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,720 (+142) [15][16] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 8, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,620 tons, in Foshan was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons month - on - month. The 300 - series inventory was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons month - on - month. On August 14, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 103,521 (+3) [19][20] Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - Red soil nickel ore CIF prices (Ni1.5% at 57 dollars/wet ton and Ni0.9% at 29 dollars/wet ton) remained unchanged on August 14 compared to August 13. Ocean freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. The high - nickel ferronickel price increased by 1.5 yuan/nickel point, and the low - nickel ferronickel price remained unchanged [23] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,931, the scrap - steel production cost is 13,649, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,534 [25] Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price is 121,457/ton [28]

Report's Core View - The copper market's fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened, and the July manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish. Inventory conditions are neutral. The price is above the 20-day moving average with the average trending upwards, and the main positions are net long but decreasing, both being bullish. Given the slowdown of Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices will fluctuate and adjust [2]. - The logical factors affecting the copper market include domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table presents production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with smelting production cuts, scrap copper policy changes, and a decline in July's manufacturing PMI [2]. - Basis: Bullish, with a spot price of 79465 and a basis of 515, showing a premium over futures [2]. - Inventory: Neutral, with copper inventory decreasing by 25 to 155850 tons on August 14 and SHFE copper inventory increasing by 9390 tons to 81933 tons from the previous week [2]. - Disk: Bullish, with the closing price above the 20 - day moving average and the average trending upwards [2]. - Main positions: Bullish, with the main net positions being long but decreasing [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to factors such as slow Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logical factors are domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of bullish and bearish factors are not elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - 2024 has a slight surplus, and 2025 is in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table from 2018 - 2024 shows detailed data on production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [20][22]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has declined [14][16].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Supply is still disrupted with slow mine复产. Market sentiment is volatile, downstream procurement has slowed, and some mine prices have adjusted down by 10 - 60 yuan/ton. However, with low mine inventory pressure and downstream rigid demand, there is no significant risk of a sharp price drop in the short - term. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, despite the fact that downstream demand is just for rigid procurement and the main position is net short [3]. - **Coke**: The high and stable price of coking coal provides cost support. With good downstream demand, coke producers have smooth sales and low inventory. Considering the pre - parade environmental protection restrictions, coke prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **Coking Coal**: Imported coking coal prices vary by brand and port. For example, the price of Iranian fat coal at Caofeidian Port increased by 135 yuan, and the price of Duoya coking coal at Caofeidian Port increased by 110 yuan [10]. - **Coke**: On August 14, 2025, most of the prices of Shanxi - produced metallurgical coke at ports decreased by 20 yuan, while some prices in Inner Mongolia and other parts increased by 50 - 75 yuan [9]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory was 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory was 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory was 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory was 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory was 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory was 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide was 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 25 yuan [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillatory movement. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, terminal demand has weakened, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,400 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, showing a bearish situation [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a bullish situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high for the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,400 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 120 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract increased by 1.23%, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe increased by 1.59%, and the main basis decreased by 2.44% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy - quality soda ash is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China combined - soda process is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production volume is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Industry Production Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has dropped significantly [28][31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective production capacity, production volume, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production volume growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash over the years [35].