Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market lacks short - term guidance and remains volatile [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price trend on the disk is neutral, the main positions show a bullish signal, and the short - term market is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply tightening and demand weakening, which suppresses the market. Canada's rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and import deposit on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 20th to 28th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, while spot prices were relatively stable, with a small - amplitude fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, and capital flowed in [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 沥青期货早报 2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 3万吨 环比降 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅5 1% 同比增幅17 1% . , . | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33 0777% 环比减少 。 . ， | | | | | 4 31个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货29 066万吨 环比增加14 73% 样本企业产量为 ， . . , | | | | | 55 2万吨 环比减少11 . ， | 53% 样本企业装置检修量预估为67 6万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market has limited room for rise and fall due to factors such as low upstream factory inventories, strong coal prices, high overall mainland plant operation levels, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both rises and falls this week, affected by the sanctions event, with weakening downward momentum but a weak fundamental situation. The report suggests paying attention to the follow - up impact of the sanctions event, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operation [4]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week, with MA2601 operating in the range of 2230 - 2280 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Mainland: Low upstream factory inventories and strong coal prices support the cost side, but high operation levels in some areas and squeezed olefin profits have a negative impact. The market has limited upward and downward space. Port: Affected by the sanctions event, the downward momentum of the port market is weakened, but it will maintain high volatility [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2230 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 125.89 tons, a slight decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period. The available circulating methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 6.34 tons to 87.70 tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some device shutdowns (Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinyao), reduced methanol operation in Iran, low port inventories, the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen, a planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month, and external procurement of methanol by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operation, certain profit margins for coal - to - methanol production, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, prices in various regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have changed to different extents. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased, and the number of registered warrants has decreased. There have also been changes in price spreads such as basis, import spreads, and regional spreads [8]. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have also decreased [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 3.02 tons, while the inventory in South China ports has decreased by 1.93 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [56]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions [57]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, normal operation, or load adjustment, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Ningbo Fude, etc. [58].

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-29投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8360，基差178，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 近期利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market waits for the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Gold prices first declined and then rebounded, while silver prices slightly recovered. There is still support from easing expectations, but gold prices face pressure due to optimistic trade negotiations. The downward pressure on gold prices persists with the return of optimistic trade expectations. The impact of the Fed's meeting on prices may be short - term [4][6]. - Gold: Despite the end of the decline in gold prices before the Fed's decision, the pressure from trade optimism remains. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at 1 yuan/gram. The Fed's meeting may bring back the support of easing, but the impact time is short [4]. - Silver: Silver prices follow gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has slightly expanded to 420 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment remains strong. Silver prices may be supported by the Fed's decision, but the impact is short - term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.01 basis points to 3.976%, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.73, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.28% to $3968.10 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market waited for the Fed's decision. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. COMEX silver futures rose 0.78% to $47.14 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and there are both support from easing expectations and pressure from trade optimism [4]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 3.24, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: Gold futures warehouse receipts are 87,015 kilograms and remain unchanged, which is bearish [5]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [5]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [5]. - **Silver**: - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and silver prices are slightly recovering. Silver is stronger than gold under the current situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 14, with the spot at a discount to the futures, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,784 kilograms to 657,427 kilograms, which is bullish [7]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 08:30, Australia's Q3 CPI; throughout the day, the Hong Kong stock market is closed; time to be determined, US President Trump visits South Korea and attends the APEC leaders' summit; at 12:05, New Zealand's central bank governor Hawkesby talks about central bank independence; at 20:30 (possibly), the US September merchandise trade balance; at 21:45, the Bank of Canada announces the interest rate decision; at 22:00, the US September pending home sales index; after the European stock market closes, Deutsche Bank releases its earnings report; at 02:00 the next day, the Fed releases the FOMC monetary policy meeting's resolution statement; at 02:30 the next day, Fed Chairman Powell holds a regular press conference [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic for gold is that after Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality continues, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [11]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. The influencing factors include both bullish factors such as global turmoil, increased expectation of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and bearish factors such as the end of interest rate cuts and the improvement of economic expectations [14][15]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.25% to 169,983, the short position decreased by 2.02% to 65,686, and the net position increased by 1.73% to 104,297 on October 28 compared to October 27. The SPDR gold ETF position continues to decrease [30][34]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7.41% to 322,389, the short position decreased by 0.46% to 251,213, and the net position decreased by 25.71% to 71,176 on October 28 compared to October 27. The silver ETF position continues to decrease but is higher than the same period in the past two years. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts stop falling and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [31][37][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent trends show weak external sugar prices while domestic Zhengzhou sugar prices are relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunities in the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has a short - term rebound, but in the long - term, the divergence between internal and external trends is unsustainable. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure level of 5500 [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 2.77 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a 231,000 - ton supply gap for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. This is bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis is 297 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO predicted a narrowing supply gap to 200,000 tons (basically balanced); StoneX forecast a 2.77 - million - ton surplus; Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons; Datagro predicted a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; Covrig Analytics forecast a 4.2 - million - ton surplus; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicted a 400,000 - ton surplus; Green Pool forecast a 1.15 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, the sugar production is estimated to be 11.2 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.9 million tons [37]. - **Import Cost**: In September 2025, the average price of ICE raw sugar was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar after 50% tariff was 5454 yuan per ton [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production reduction policy is expected to be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Regarding inventory, port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price on the disk is above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The net long position of the iron ore main contract is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan to reduce production capacity will impact the market, suggesting a high - level oscillation strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory is decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, indicating a strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Catalogs - **Iron ore port spot price**: The report mentions the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port for basis calculation but does not elaborate further [2]. - **Iron ore basis**: The basis of PB powder at Rizhao Port is 46, and that of Brazilian blend is 64, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Iron ore import profit**: The report mentions import losses as a bullish factor but does not provide specific data [6]. - **Iron ore shipping volume**: Future shipping volume is expected to increase as a bearish factor [6]. - **Iron ore port and steel mill inventory**: Port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - **Iron ore arrival and dispatch volume**: The report mentions that the arrival level this month has decreased but does not provide specific data [2]. - **Iron ore daily consumption**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Steel enterprise production situation**: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing [2]. - **Iron ore port daily trading volume and steel mills' daily hot metal**: Not mentioned in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term price of urea is expected to recover, and it is predicted that the trend of UR today will be oscillating and moderately strong. Although the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply, factors such as the strong international price, increased export volume, and short - term decline in daily production are driving the short - term market improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are starting to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports is large but has decreased, and the export volume has increased. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, but the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1590 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 45, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.8%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract has rebounded. Industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand has recovered. The international urea price is strong, and the export volume has increased. Although the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious, the short - term price is expected to recover, and the UR is predicted to trend oscillating and moderately strong today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: Strong international prices, increased exports, and short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1590, with no change; the Shandong spot price is 1610, with no change; the Henan spot price is 1590, with no change; the FOB China price is 2662 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1635, down 5; the price of the UR05 contract is 1708, down 5; the price of the UR09 contract is 1736, down 9. The basis of the UR01 contract is - 45, up 5 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 2970, down 2318; the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons; the UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2018, the output was 19.5681 billion, the net import volume was 4.4838 billion, the apparent consumption was 24.0519 billion, and the ending inventory was 236.6 million [9]. - In 2019, the output was 22.4 billion, the net import volume was 4.8794 billion, the apparent consumption was 27.2794 billion, and the ending inventory was 378.6 million. The production capacity growth rate was 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9]. - In 2020, the output was 25.8098 billion, the net import volume was 6.1912 billion, the apparent consumption was 32.001 billion, and the ending inventory was 378.3 million. The production capacity growth rate was 15.5%, and the consumption growth rate was 17.9% [9]. - In 2021, the output was 29.2799 billion, the net import volume was 3.5241 billion, the apparent consumption was 32.804 billion, and the ending inventory was 357.2 million. The production capacity growth rate was 11.4%, and the consumption growth rate was 2.6% [9]. - In 2022, the output was 29.6546 billion, the net import volume was 3.3537 billion, the apparent consumption was 33.0083 billion, and the ending inventory was 446.2 million. The production capacity growth rate was 8.4%, and the consumption growth rate was 0.3% [9]. - In 2023, the output was 31.9359 billion, the net import volume was 2.9313 billion, the apparent consumption was 34.8672 billion, and the ending inventory was 446.5 million. The production capacity growth rate was 14.1%, and the consumption growth rate was 5.9% [9]. - In 2024, the output was 34.25 billion, the net import volume was 3.6 billion, the apparent consumption was 37.85 billion, and the ending inventory was 514 million. The production capacity growth rate was 13.5%, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% [9]. - In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 49.06 billion, with a production capacity growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend sideways to the upside today due to factors such as the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the continuation of peak-season demand for agricultural films, and neutral industrial inventories [4] - PP is also expected to trend sideways to the upside today, supported by the same factors as LLDPE and the peak-season demand from downstream industries [6] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak-season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production starts, while production starts for other films have declined after inventory replenishment. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7040 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 55, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 565,000 tons (-15,000), indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with limited support from crude oil on the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 639,000 tons (-40,000), indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with supply at a low level and showing signs of a slight rebound, while terminal demand remains sluggish. The report anticipates that the glass market will mainly experience a volatile and weak trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1113 yuan/ton, showing a 1.64% increase; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - sized sheets was 1044 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease; the main basis was - 69 yuan/ton, a 60.47% increase [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - sized sheets in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1044 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis Cost - side No specific content was summarized in the given text. Production and Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%, and the daily melting volume was 161,300 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history but showing signs of stabilization and recovery [23][25]. Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. Downstream processing plant orders were generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand was sluggish [29]. Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, a 3.64% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [44]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [4]. Negative Factors - Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventory [5]. Main Logic - Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and there have been more supply - side disturbances recently. However, the recovery of terminal demand is weak, so it is expected that the glass market will mainly show a volatile trend [6].