沪锌期货早报-2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒6月18日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示，2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨，消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月，全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨，供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月，全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22730，基差+85；中性。 3、库存：7月28日LME锌库存较上日减少275吨至115500吨，7月28日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加478吨至13767吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判第三轮正在进行，关注谈判进程。前期抢出口订单基本结束，市 场对金九银十旺季有所期待。郑棉主力09可能临近交割月，期现价差回归动力增加。09短 期运行区间14000-14500。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15609，基差1534（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部25/26年度7月预计期末库存823万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-7-29 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪消退；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至 历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1204元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1223元/吨，基差为-19元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6189.60万重量箱，较前一周减少4.69%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：政策利好有所消退，短期预计玻璃震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给下滑至同期较低水平，下游阶段性补库，玻 ...

尿素早报 2025-7-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国内宏观政策带来原料端利好影响。国内供应方面，日产及 开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开 工亦回落，农业需求再次转淡。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品 现货1820（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差82，升贴水比例4.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存143.1万吨（+0.9），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线下，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，翻空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，宏观政策原料端利好，国内整体供过 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is relatively high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China have led to the rise of rapeseed products, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8320, with a basis of 200, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have increased [3]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [3]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production reduction, and the subsequent supply will increase [3][5][6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [5]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [5]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have decreased [5]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production reduction, and the subsequent supply will increase [3][5][6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9550, with a basis of 144, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [6]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [6]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [7]. - **Negative factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily View - **Fundamentals**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has faded; alkali plant maintenance is less, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume has dropped significantly, terminal demand has weakened, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1420 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1316 yuan/ton, the basis is 104 yuan, and the futures are at a discount to the spot, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamental supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. It is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Bullish**: The peak summer maintenance season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Bearish**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The "anti - involution" policy sentiment has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract dropped from 1440 yuan/ton to 1316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.61%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1420 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 20 yuan/ton to 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 620% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1420 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Soda Ash Production - **Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 87 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production method is - 50.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.02%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash is 723,800 tons, including 408,900 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Change**: In 2023, the new soda ash production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 105.66% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,000 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.10%. The price of photovoltaic glass has continued to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [27][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: After a significant increase, the domestic commodity atmosphere turned cold on the night of last Friday, and PTA futures followed the correction. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was relatively light, and the spot basis was weak. In August, some PTA plants are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. It is predicted that the PTA price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a certain range [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the basis strengthened. The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to turn to a tight balance in July - August. With the tightening of the supply side and a good macro - atmosphere, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: The fundamentals showed a post - increase correction on the night of last Friday. The spot basis was weak, the factory inventory increased slightly, the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the main position was net long but decreasing. In August, some plants are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. The price is expected to follow the cost side and the basis will fluctuate [5]. - **MEG**: The price fluctuated weakly on Monday, and the basis strengthened. The supply side has some unexpected situations, and the supply - demand is expected to turn to a tight balance in July - August. The price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors**: The supply side of ethylene glycol has many unexpected situations, such as device outages in Saudi Arabia, load reduction of a large - scale producer in Zhejiang, and planned maintenance of a cracking device in Lianyungang. On the demand side, the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the rush - export period and the domestic off - season [7]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - side. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upward resistance of the market rebound needs to be monitored [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand situation and inventory changes over time [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand relationship and inventory trends [10]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester products, and their corresponding futures and basis on July 25 and July 28, 2025, as well as the processing fees and profits of PTA and MEG [11]. - **Other Data**: There are also data on bottle - chip spot prices, production gross margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and various price spreads (such as PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, spot spreads) from 2020 to 2025, which help to comprehensively understand the market situation [13][16][18]

Report Title Precious Metals Weekly Report (July 21 - July 25) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, domestic commodities surged, and precious metal prices rose first and then fell. Silver remained stronger than gold. The prices of precious metals were supported by the domestic commodity boom despite trade agreement news from Japan and the EU. The expectation of a Fed rate cut continued to rise, and there were still supports for precious metal prices. Affected by the domestic industrial clearance policy, precious metal prices might be supported by non - ferrous metal prices, and silver prices had strong capital support [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - **Precious Metal Price Movements**: - Shanghai Gold 2510 closed up 0.26%, reaching a maximum of 794 yuan/gram; COMEX Gold closed down 0.2%, reaching a maximum of 3451.7 dollars/ounce. - Shanghai Silver 2510 closed up 2.4%, reaching a new historical high of 9526 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Silver closed up 0.06%, reaching a maximum of 39.91 dollars/ounce, the highest since September 2011. - SGE Gold T + D closed up 0.29%, and SGE Silver T + D closed up 2.21%. - London Gold Spot closed down 0.4%, and London Silver Spot closed down 0.03%. - The US Dollar Index closed down 0.8%, and the US Dollar against Offshore RMB closed down 0.18% [4][12]. - **Trade Agreement News**: - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement with a 15% tariff rate, and Japan would invest 550 billion dollars in the US, with the US getting 90% of the profits. - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU would increase investment in the US by 600 billion dollars, buy US military equipment and 750 billion dollars of US energy products [12][13]. - **Economic Data**: - The US July Markit Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction, but the overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December. - The Eurozone July PMI rose to 51, a new high in nearly a year. Germany's manufacturing industry showed signs of recovery, while France's economy continued to shrink due to political deadlock. - US June existing - home sales dropped to the lowest level in nearly 15 years, while housing prices reached a new historical high [14][15]. 2. Weekly Review - **Market Focus**: This week, the China - US trade negotiation and the August 1 tariff "deadline" were the focuses, and the Fed's interest rate decision was highly anticipated. The US would also release key data such as non - farm payrolls, GDP, and PCE. The Bank of Japan would announce the target interest rate. China would hold a Politburo meeting at the end of July and release the official manufacturing PMI data [12]. - **Position Analysis**: - For Shanghai Gold, the net position decreased slightly, with more long positions added and short positions reduced, and the fluctuation was very limited. - For Shanghai Silver, the net position continued to increase, with both long and short positions increasing significantly. - CFTC net positions fluctuated slightly, with both long and short positions of gold and silver increasing, but the increase in short positions was limited [12]. 3. Fundamental Data - **ETF Positions**: SPDR Gold ETF positions continued to increase, and silver ETF positions increased in a fluctuating manner [31][33]. - **Inventory Data**: - COMEX Gold inventory increased slightly, and COMEX Silver inventory decreased slightly. - Shanghai Gold inventory data was presented, and Shanghai Silver inventory increased in a fluctuating manner [36][38]. 4. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: This week, long positions were 216,889, an increase of 5.34% from last week; short positions were 66,199, an increase of 5.86%; the net position was 150,690, an increase of 5.12% [23]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: This week, long positions were 448,932, a decrease of 8.03% from last week; short positions were 348,227, a decrease of 7.89%; the net position was 100,705, a decrease of 8.53% [26]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 22, the net long position of CFTC gold increased significantly, with more long positions added and short positions reduced; the net long position of CFTC silver increased slightly, also with more long positions added and short positions reduced [27]. 5. Summary - Tariff agreements had no progress, the expectation of a rate cut increased significantly, and there were still supports for precious metal prices. Affected by the domestic industrial clearance policy, precious metal prices might be supported by non - ferrous metal prices, and silver prices were still relatively strong [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic methanol market is expected to have a local upward trend, but the increase in some regions may be limited. In the port market, the "anti - involution" reform of coal boosts coking coal and coke futures, which may further support the spot and futures prices of methanol in ports. However, the concentrated arrival of imports next week may lead to inventory accumulation and limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to import arrivals and macro - external news. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season continues, and poor downstream profitability restricts cost transfer and demand. But with no inventory pressure on inland factories and continuous procurement demand from CTO factories in the northwest, the supply - demand balance remains stable. Recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling over - production in coal mines have pushed up the methanol futures market, which is positive for inland operators. The inland methanol market is expected to continue to be stable with a slight upward trend [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The short - term domestic methanol market has different trends in ports and inland areas. Port prices may be affected by coal policies and import arrivals, while inland prices are influenced by the off - season, downstream profitability, and policies [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Prices - Prices in different regions showed varying degrees of change. For example, in Jiangsu, the price increased from 2385 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2488 yuan/ton on July 25th, with a weekly increase of 4.32%. In Hebei, the price rose from 2190 yuan/ton to 2225 yuan/ton, a 1.60% increase. In Shandong (Lunan), the price remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Futures and Basis - The futures price increased from 2365 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2519 yuan/ton on July 25th, with a weekly increase of 6.51%. The basis showed fluctuations, with a weekly change of - 51 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit increased from 265 yuan/ton on July 18th to 315 yuan/ton on July 25th, a 50 - yuan increase. Natural gas - based production profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton. Coke oven gas - based production profit increased from 451 yuan/ton to 474 yuan/ton, a 334 - yuan increase [11]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a 3.81% decrease. In the northwest region, it decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a 3.55% decrease [13]. 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China price increased from 270 dollars/ton on July 18th to 280 dollars/ton on July 25th, a 3.70% increase. CFR Southeast Asia price increased slightly from 330.5 dollars/ton to 333.5 dollars/ton, a 0.91% increase. The spread between them changed from - 60.5 dollars/ton to - 53.5 dollars/ton [16]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost increased from 2388 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2470 yuan/ton on July 25th, a 3.44% increase. The import spread changed from - 3 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan increase [19]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged during the week, with a 0.00% change [26]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit decreased from - 165 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 24.52% to 25.42%. Dimethyl ether production profit decreased from 410 yuan/ton to 361 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.06% to 8.88%. Acetic acid production profit decreased from - 62 yuan/ton to - 118 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 80.48% to 82.42% [27][29][35]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit decreased from - 932 yuan/ton on July 18th to - 1262 yuan/ton on July 25th. The MTO/MTP device load decreased from 79.84% last week to 79.69% this week [39]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased from 44.6 tons last week to 41.67 tons this week, a 2.93 - ton decrease. In the South China port, the inventory increased from 15 tons to 17.04 tons, a 2.04 - ton increase [43]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased from 8544 on July 18th to 10134 on July 25th, a 18.61% increase. Effective forecasts decreased from 1800 to 0, a 100.00% decrease [44]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods vary, and the weekly maintenance losses also differ. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's maintenance loss is 1950 tons, and Qinghai Zhonghao's is 9100 tons [47]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - In Iran, some methanol plants are in the process of restarting or operating at different levels, such as ZPC, Kaveh, etc. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Qatar, most plants are operating normally, but some are under maintenance, such as QAFAC [48]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - In the northwest, most olefin and methanol - olefin integrated devices are operating normally or have specific operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is under maintenance, while Yan'an Energy and Chemical is operating stably. In other regions, the operating conditions of olefin devices also vary [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market presents a complex situation. In the port market, the "anti - involution" reform of coal supports coking coal futures and may boost methanol's spot and futures prices. However, delayed imports this week and expected concentrated arrivals next week may lead to inventory accumulation, limiting price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season continues, and poor downstream profitability restricts cost transfer, but low factory inventories and raw material shortages in CTO plants in the northwest maintain a balanced supply - demand situation. The recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling coal mine over - production have a positive impact on the futures market and trader sentiment. Overall, it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract oscillating between 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For the methanol 2509 contract: - Fundamentals: Port market - coal reform supports prices, but potential inventory accumulation may limit increases; inland market - high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability, yet low factory inventories and raw material shortages maintain balance. Policy factors have a positive impact on the futures market. Outlook is neutral. - Basis: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2530 yuan/ton, with a basis of 11 for the 09 contract, indicating spot premium over futures. Outlook is neutral. - Inventory: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory in East and South China ports decreased by 0.89 tons to 58.71 tons, and the available circulating inventory in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons. Outlook is bullish. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average. Outlook is bullish. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions. Outlook is bearish. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract oscillating between 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya); reduced methanol production in Iran and low port inventory; the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen produced products on May 16, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; CTO plants in the northwest have a large raw material gap and are expected to continue external procurement [6]. - Bearish factors: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua); expected concentrated vessel arrivals in the second half of the month; formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE operating rate; certain profit margins in coal - based methanol production and active sales; inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: In the spot market, prices in different regions showed varying degrees of change, with Jiangsu rising by 4.32% to 2488 yuan/ton, Fujian rising by 4.35% to 2520 yuan/ton, etc. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract rose by 6.51% to 2519 yuan/ton [8][9][11]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis decreased from - 12 to - 31 yuan/ton; the import spread increased from - 71 to - 49 yuan/ton; the price spreads between regions such as Jiangsu - Shandong and Jiangsu - Hebei also changed to varying degrees [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The weighted average national operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports decreased by 2.93 tons to 41.67 tons, while the inventory in South China ports increased by 2.04 tons to 17.04 tons [8]. - **Production Profits**: Coal - based production profit was 315 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton; natural gas - based production profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton; coke oven gas - based production profit was 474 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 334 yuan/ton [19]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [30]. - **Downstream Production Profits and Loads**: Formaldehyde production profit decreased to - 180 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 0.90% to 25.42%; dimethyl ether production profit decreased to 361 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 0.82% to 8.88%; acetic acid production profit decreased to - 118 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 1.94% to 82.42%; MTO production profit decreased to - 1262 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 0.15% to 79.84% [34][37][41][46]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many plants in regions such as the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including full - scale shutdowns, partial load reductions, and planned or unplanned maintenance. For example, in the Northwest, Ningxia Changyi (600,000 tons/year) has been shut down since early February; in North China, China Daying (1.2 million tons/year) was shut down from February 26 to March 23 [57]. - **Overseas Plants**: In Iran, some plants are in the process of resuming production or have low operating rates, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, etc. are generally operating normally, with some undergoing periodic maintenance [58]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, and other regions are in normal operation, while some are shut down for maintenance or have low operating rates. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy shut down for maintenance on March 15, and Changzhou Fude has been shut down for maintenance since November 1, 2023 [59].