交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 成本端来看，电石法利润为-783.9115元/吨，亏损环比增加19.20%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润 为-645.3653元/吨，亏损环比减少1.00%，低于历史平均水平；双吨价差为2329.25元/吨，环比持平， 低于历史平均水平，排产或将承压。 电石法成本走弱，乙烯法成本走强，总体成本走弱；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少， 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨，环比增加3.43%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.97%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量33.7665万吨，环比增加2.76%,乙烯法企业产 量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract shows a volatile pattern, with fluctuating crude oil prices, a peak season for agricultural film demand but still weaker than previous years, and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the main - contract is also volatile, with fluctuating crude oil prices, increasing demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export value in August was $321.81 billion, a 4.4% year - on - year increase but a decline from July. The crude oil price has been fluctuating recently. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7160 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 21, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - economic indicators. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increasing demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 123, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.8%, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (- 30,000 tons), which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7160 (+10), the 01 - contract price is 7181 (+22), the basis is - 21 (- 12), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 525,000 tons (- 10,000 tons) [9]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+0), the 01 - contract price is 6903 (+10), the basis is - 123 (- 10), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons (0), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (0) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in the growth rate. The import dependence has also gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

Report Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rose to 49.4%, showing an improved business climate compared to the previous month. The basis is neutral with the spot price at 82,215 and a basis of 40, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is neutral with a decrease in copper inventory on September 29 and a decrease in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20-day moving average which is moving upwards, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September [2]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals, basis, and inventory of copper are neutral, while the market trend and main positions are bullish. Copper prices are expected to maintain strength [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific利多and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the middle price, changes, and inventory details such as types, total amounts, and changes, is presented, but specific data is not fully provided in the given context [6]. 期现价差 - Not elaborated in the provided content. Exchange Inventory - Information on exchange inventory is mentioned, but specific details are not fully given [11]. 保税区库存 - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not elaborated in the provided content. Supply - Demand Balance - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费坚挺，镍铁价格维稳，成本线坚挺，不锈钢 去库存放缓。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13962.5，基差1202.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：87148，-357，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、结论：不锈钢2511：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 多空因素 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘反弹，价格站上20均线，短期围绕20均线上下震荡。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，受台 风影响，矿山装船出船或有延迟。镍铁价格维稳，成本线坚挺，镍铁企业仍然亏损。不锈钢金九银十去 库存放缓。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月30日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国政府停摆担忧推高金价，金价再创新高；美国三大股指小幅上涨， 欧洲三大股指收盘小幅收涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌4.26个基 点报4.137%；美元指数跌0.26%报97.94，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1294；COMEX黄 金期货涨1.42%报3862.90美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注中国9月PMI、日央行会议纪要、美国8月职位空缺、美联储和欧 央行委员密集讲话。美国政府停摆担忧推高金价，地缘冲突依旧，金价走高。沪金 溢价收敛至-9.4元/克。美国政府关门担忧仍存， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures decline in a volatile manner, closing with a negative candlestick. Trading volume increased, and both long and short positions added, with more short positions. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term. The price closed below the long - term moving average, with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and operated in the weak zone, while the trend indicator showed that the long - side strength decreased and the short - side strength increased, with the short - side advantage expanding. The recommendation is that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 will move weakly in a volatile pattern [2][19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, indicating a bullish situation [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 21,670, with a basis of - 130, indicating a bearish situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On September 29, LME zinc inventory decreased by 825 tons to 41,950 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,691 tons to 59,264 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On September 29, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 695,182 lots, with a turnover of 3.06335844 billion yuan, and an open interest of 251,024 lots, an increase of 20,743 lots [3]. 5. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On September 29, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market generally declined. For example, the price of zinc concentrate was 16,380 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots was 21,670 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From September 18 to September 29, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 148,300 tons to 128,400 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to September 22 and 7,000 tons compared to September 25 [5]. 7. Zinc Warrant Report - On September 29, the total zinc warrants on the futures exchange were 59,264 tons, an increase of 1,691 tons. Different regions had different changes in warrants, such as an increase of 400 tons in Shanghai, 2,839 tons in Guangdong, and a decrease of 1,548 tons in Tianjin [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On September 29, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 825 tons, with different situations in various warehouses [7]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 29, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities all decreased by 250 yuan/ton [8]. 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 29, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters decreased by 320 yuan/ton [12]. 11. Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and a 2.63% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 29, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions had different price ranges and changes, with import processing fees at 105 US dollars/dry ton for 48% - grade [16]. 13. Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2511 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on September 29, the total trading volume of members was 283,338 lots, an increase of 86,084 lots; the total long positions were 97,241 lots, an increase of 10,324 lots; the total short positions were 97,542 lots, an increase of 11,277 lots [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 利多：前期中美互加关税减少，商业库存同比降低。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 利空：贸易谈判继续进行，目前对美出口关税偏高。总 体外贸订单下降，库存增加。新棉即将大量上市。金九 消费不旺。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：全国棉花产量预计722万吨，新疆再创新高。ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万 吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存 1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿美元，同比下降5%。8月份我国棉花进口7万 吨，同比减少51.6%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1740 | -20 | 01合约 | 1664 | - 5 | 仓 单 | 7211 | -30 | | 山东现货 | 1740 | -20 | 基 差 | 7 6 | -15 | UR综合库存 | 152 5 . | 10 4 . | | 河南现货 | 1750 | - 2 | UR01 | 1664 | - 5 | UR厂家库存 | 102 4 . | 6 6 . | | FOB中国 | 3186 | | UR05 | 1715 | - 5 | UR港口库存 | 50 1 . | 3 7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For PTA, the futures markets fluctuated and closed lower, with the spot market showing average negotiation atmosphere and little change in spot basis. The market expects the basis to have limited upside potential, and the absolute price to fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Before the holiday, the intention of traders to hold goods was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Hints - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated and closed lower, spot negotiation average, basis little change. 10 - mid contracts traded at a discount of around 55 to 01 contracts, price negotiation range 4570 - 4610. Mainstream spot basis is 01 - 55 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4590, 01 contract basis is - 62, neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period, bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short, short positions increasing, bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Futures prices rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA devices reduced production or shut down due to typhoons, and downstream polyester sales improved significantly, with the spot basis strengthening slightly. However, the market expectation is still bearish, and the basis is expected to have limited upside potential [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Spot transactions were mainly at a premium of 63 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the trading was weak. Traders' intention to hold goods before the holiday was not high [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4295, 01 contract basis is 71, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period, bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: Main net short, short positions decreasing, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved significantly last week, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased significantly. Before the holiday, the intention to hold ethylene glycol in the market was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation will turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Bullish Factors**: - Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels, which was in contrast to analysts' forecast of an increase of 235,000 barrels [8]. - As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for the start of demand [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to resume production in November [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [11]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows data from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [13]. - **Price - related Data**: - **Bottle Chip Spot Price**: Shows the price trends of PET bottle chips in the East China market from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Bottle Chip Production Gross Margin**: Displays the production gross margin trends of bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - **Bottle Chip Capacity Utilization Rate**: Presents the capacity utilization rate trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2024 [23][24]. - **PTA Spread and Basis**: Includes TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1 spreads and PTA basis trends from 2019 to 2025 [25][26][27][29][30][31]. - **MEG Spread and Basis**: Covers EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1 spreads and MEG basis trends from 2021 to 2025 [32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. - **Spot Spread**: Displays TA - EG spot spread and paraxylene processing spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **PTA Inventory**: Shows the trends of PTA factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **MEG Inventory**: Presents the trends of MEG port inventory in East China from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **PET Chip Inventory**: Displays the trends of PET chip factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, DTY, FDY, and POY from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50][51]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: - **Upstream Operating Rates**: Include the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][55]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Comprise the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56][57][58][59]. - **Profit - related Data**: - **PTA Processing Fee**: Shows the PTA processing fee trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61]. - **MEG Profit**: Presents the profit trends of different MEG production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Polyester Fiber Profit**: Displays the profit trends of polyester staple fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [65][66][67][68][69].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Sugar Morning Report - September 30, 2025 - **Report Author**: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - **Contact Information**: 0575 - 85226759 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall situation of the sugar market is complex, with both positive and negative factors. The market is affected by global supply - demand changes, domestic consumption, and weather conditions. Near the National Day holiday, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market [4][5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, while ISO expects a 231,000 - ton supply gap, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. In July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. This is a bearish factor [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5890, with a basis of 411 (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a neutral factor [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, a bearish factor [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a decrease in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, a bearish factor [5]. - **Expectation**: Typhoons have recently affected sugarcane - growing areas in southern Guangxi. Strong winds can cause sugarcane to lodge, and heavy rainfall can lead to waterlogging in sugarcane fields. Future attention should be paid to potential production cuts. With the approaching National Day holiday, there are many uncertainties, so it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Positive Factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose [6]. - **Negative Factors**: An increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new global sugar supply, the international sugar price fluctuating around 16 cents per pound, an open import profit window, and increased import pressure [6]. - **Supply - Demand Forecast by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects a 231,000 - ton supply gap, StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow expects a 6.2 - million - ton surplus, and Datagro expects a 1.53 - million - ton surplus [4][8][35]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.