原油2509： 1.基本面：美国与欧盟周日达成一项框架贸易协议，对欧盟大多数商品征收15%的进口关税，仅为威胁税率 的一半，从而避免了这两个盟友之间爆发更大规模的贸易战；中美两国高级谈判代表周一将在瑞典斯德哥 尔摩举行会晤，以解决作为世界前两大经济体贸易战核心的长期经济争端，旨在延长8月12日的关税临时 "休战"协议期限，避免大幅提高关税；四名OPEC+代表称，OPEC+联合部长级监督委员会不太可能在周一 开会时改变现有增产计划，并指出该联盟渴望恢复市场份额，而夏季需求正帮助吸收多余的石油供应；中 性 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-28原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 2.基差：7月25 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-07-28 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 CONTENTS 目 录 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2640至2700区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-75，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.51万吨，上周0.46万吨，周环比增加228%，去年同期3.6万吨，同比减 少58.06%。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕回落带动，菜粕冲高回落 （菜粕周报7.21-7.25） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-75，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.51万吨，上周0.46万吨，周环比增加228%，去年同期3.6万吨，同比减 少58.06%。偏多 4.盘面：价 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.79%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.834万吨，环比减少0.58%,乙烯法企业产 量11.319万吨，环比减少2.32%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增加幅度 可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为41.88%，环比增加.77个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38%，环比增加.45个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为32.52%，环比减少1.23个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand decreased and remained sluggish. Cost support in Xinjiang weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9550 - 9900 yuan/ton. Factors such as supply - demand, basis, inventory, and market trends are considered, with a complex balance of positive and negative factors [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase, while demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. Cost support is stable. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 49830 - 52220 yuan/ton. There are also mixed positive and negative factors in basis, inventory, and other aspects [11]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost increase support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week. Demand in downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy remained low [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 was 2027 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 25th, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 9850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 125 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; and major port inventory was 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged [6]. - Expectation: The 2509 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 9550 - 9900 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week. The estimated production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.2 GW, a 0.90% increase from the previous week. However, the production of battery cells and components shows a downward trend overall, and the overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,170 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9330 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 25th, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4525 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease from the previous week, remaining at a historically high level [12]. - Expectation: The 2509 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 49830 - 52220 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon price data shows the changes in prices and price differences of different contracts and spot products, as well as the changes in inventory and production data of different regions and ports [18]. - Polysilicon price data shows the price changes of different products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, as well as the changes in production, inventory, and import - export data [20]. Other Data and Trends - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show the historical trends of basis and price differences over the years [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical trends of inventory in different regions and ports [26]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical trends of production and capacity utilization in different regions [30]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical trends of costs such as electricity prices, silica prices, and graphite electrode prices in different regions [35]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends show the historical trends of cost and profit in different sample regions [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the supply - demand balance data of different time periods [39][42]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon data shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [45][47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy data shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the aluminum alloy market [53][57]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon data shows the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [63][66]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component composition cost - profit trends show the cost - profit trends of 210mm components [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends show the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity in the photovoltaic field [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply exceeding demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch [9][12]. - Lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79220 - 81820 [9]. - It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a 2.53% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase. The monthly lithium carbonate import volume in June 2025 was 17,698 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 24.31% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,878.0487804878 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,552 tons, a 1.40% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily - CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The cost of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate was 71,661 yuan/ton, a 4.33% daily increase, with a production profit of 183 yuan/ton. The cost of外购 lithium mica was 77,138 yuan/ton, a 4.21% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,248 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: The futures closing prices of different contracts increased, with the 09 contract rising 5.01%. The basis of different contracts also changed, with the 09 contract's basis decreasing by 24.31%. The prices of upstream lithium minerals, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed various trends [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80%. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene increased by 4.33%, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, and the import volume decreased by 16.31% [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased. The monthly operating rate and production of ternary materials showed different trends, and the monthly battery loading volume of new energy vehicles increased [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 饲料蛋白政策调整预期，豆粕冲高回落 （豆粕周报7.21-7.25） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 期整体良好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆冲高回落，中美关税 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | 偏空 | 进口成本预计维持震荡，中 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期转淡，油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量维持高位 | | 计 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term outlook for soybeans and soybean meal is mainly in a range - bound pattern. For soybean meal M2509, it is expected to oscillate between 2960 and 3020, and for soybean A2509, between 4160 and 4260. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, South American soybean harvest, and domestic import volume [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The short - term outlook for soybean meal is to return to a range - bound pattern, with factors like the reduction of protein content in feed formulas and high imports of soybeans in July. The short - term outlook for soybeans is affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and the increase in imported soybeans [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the US soybean market may fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. Domestic imported soybean arrivals in July are high, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills continues to rise. The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, and soybean meal may enter a short - term weak oscillation pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - growing weather [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: High domestic imported soybean arrivals in July and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2840, with a basis of - 195, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 99.84 tons, a 12.66% increase from last week and a 20.8% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 76, indicating a premium to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 642.24 tons, a 2.32% decrease from last week and a 5.08% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have increased, but funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10]. Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: Data from July 17 - 25 shows the prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: Data from July 15 - 25 shows the changes in warehouse receipts of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal [19]. - **Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are presented, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, and consumption [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 is provided [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January - July 2025 are presented, including data on harvest area, yield, production, and inventory [40]. - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The monthly arrivals of imported soybeans from 2020 - 2025 are shown, with the peak arrival time postponed to June and an overall increase [43]. - **Oil Mill Data**: Soybean inventory in oil mills has slightly increased, and soybean meal inventory has continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stockpiling has increased. Soybean crushing volume in oil mills has decreased from a high level, and soybean meal production in June has increased year - on - year [44][46][48]. - **Pig - Farming Data**: Pig inventory is on the rise, sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently fallen after rising, and piglet prices remain weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. Domestic pig - farming profits have recently declined [51][53][55][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The current demand is below the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3596 - 3634 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.9204%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.79%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 14.4572%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 547.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 847.0529 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 25, the spot price in Shandong was 3,780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%; the in - factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3596 - 3634 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and other indicators and their changes [14][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Operating Rate**: It shows the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt on the exchange from 2019 to 2025 [64][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - It shows the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [77]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the domestic excavator sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease this week after the holiday, and the demand is also suppressed by the macro - environment and high - temperature weather. The market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 14,100 - 14,500 [10]. - The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and the inventory shows an increasing trend, while the price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that supply and demand may both decrease this week, and the pig price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is at a discount to the futures, the inventory is increasing, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. The expected price range of LH2509 is 14,100 - 14,500 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in both supply and demand. The spot price oscillates weakly in the short term, and the futures follow a similar pattern [12]. - The short - term decline in pork demand after the May Day holiday and the decrease in both supply and demand lead to a weakly oscillating spot price, but the decline space may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [12]. - The low - level pig - raising profit still exists in the short term, and the high slaughter enthusiasm of large pigs and the decrease in both supply and demand suppress the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future supply reduction and demand recovery [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited decline space of the domestic pig spot price [13]. - **Bearish factors**: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory data**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Price data**: The national average spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was - 305 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures [10]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [10].