交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货23280，基差+250；偏多。 3、库存：12月18日LME锌库存较上日增加1700吨至99400吨，12月18日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日减少1920吨至45949吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空增；偏空。 6、预期：LME库存仓单开始增加；上期所仓单继续减少；沪锌ZN2601：震荡 走强。 12月18日期货交易所锌期货行情 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US CPI cooled more than expected, but the data was questioned. Gold and silver prices initially rose but then fell. The gold-silver ratio is at a low level, and gold prices still have support. Silver prices still have capital support, but risk appetite may fluctuate significantly on the triple witching day of US stocks [4][5] - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall. Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. There are both positive and negative factors affecting gold and silver prices, and the upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited [9][12] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US CPI cooled more than expected, but the data was questioned. On Friday, the triple witching day of US stocks, gold prices rose and then fell. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $4363.9 per ounce [4] - **Silver**: The US CPI cooled more than expected, but the data was questioned. The increase in lithium carbonate prices converged, and silver prices rose and then fell. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 2.17% to $65.45 per ounce [5] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -5.8, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. Gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 6 kilograms to 91716 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [4] - **Silver**: The basis is -26, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is neutral. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 240 kilograms to 912164 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased, which is bullish [5] 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple important events and data releases today, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, speeches by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials, US November existing home sales, and the final value of the US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index [4][5][14] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The Fed's interest rate cut and the optimistic expectation of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have both positive and negative impacts, and the upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited [9] - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. There are both positive and negative factors affecting silver prices, such as global turmoil, inflation concerns, and the impact of tariffs [12][13] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position increased. The long position volume on December 18 was 195,799, an increase of 2,994 or 1.55% compared to December 17. The short position volume was 54,671, a decrease of 906 or 1.63% compared to December 17. The net position was 141,128, an increase of 3,900 or 2.84% compared to December 17 [4][29] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased. The long position volume on December 18 was 397,940, a decrease of 11,017 or 2.69% compared to December 17. The short position volume was 289,399, a decrease of 14,052 or 4.63% compared to December 17. The net position was 108,541, an increase of 3,035 or 2.88% compared to December 17 [5][31]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-19甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：多空交织下预计本周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面，内地甲醇工厂暂无库存压力，但内地甲醇开工处 于高位水平，叠加内蒙大型甲醇项目计划再度重启，且部分上游工厂表现出强烈的出货意愿，供应端也暂无缺口。需求 来看，传统下游逐步进入需求淡季，但新增需求亮点显著：联泓新建45万吨/年烯烃装置计划在12月10日投产。同时， 冬季北方地区雨雪天气频发可能影响运输效率，销区下游企业为规避原料供应风险原料库存保持高位，但期补库需求仍 存，形成对价格的隐性支撑。港口方面，港口库存虽然延续小库但依旧高位，下游需求一般，浙江MTO装置 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存有所回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率同比明显回升，三聚氰胺开工稳。出口内外价差大，近期 出口配额企业多完成集港，短期出口需求回落，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1680 （+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-28，升贴水比例-1.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135.7万吨（-3.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，工业需求 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：宏观影响，外盘大幅反弹，价格反弹至20均线附近。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。 产业链上，镍矿价格稳定，海运费持平，矿库存高位，中长期预期供应宽松。镍铁价格止跌小幅反弹， 成本线略有上涨。不锈钢库存小幅回落。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良 好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货116600，基差2660，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253938，-60，上交所仓单37513，-748，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2601：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行，中长线反弹抛空。 不锈钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats will fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [5] Summary by Directory Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production cut season, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,240, with a basis of 438, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil increases [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,420, with a basis of 52, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil increases [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,670, with a basis of 725, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are increasing [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,700 - 9,100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Supply - Soybean oil inventory [6] - Soybean meal inventory [8] - Oil mill soybean crushing [10] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [14]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉 花进口12万吨，同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产 量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-19锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2603： 1.基本面：当前硅锰市场仍延续"强成本、弱需求"僵持格局，成本端的刚性支撑与需求端的不确定性形成博弈，市场整 体观望情绪浓厚，观望短期内主流钢厂招标价格的落地；中性。 2.基差：现货价5700元/吨，03合约基差-80/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2603：5700-5800震荡运行。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1145元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1193元/吨，基差为-48元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存149.93万吨，较前一周增加0.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： | 日盘 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-19 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1062元/吨，基差为-118元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5855.80万重量箱，较前一周增加0.57%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订 ...