交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-30 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1148元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1228元/吨，基差为-80元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5935.50万重量箱，较前一周减少2.55%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： 1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1278元/吨，基差为-88元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 中美贸易谈判僵持，豆粕维持震荡 （豆粕周报9.22-9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 中性 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | | | 期正常 | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆维持震荡，中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期尚好， 油厂压榨量维持高位 | 偏空 | 需求短期回升，油厂开机预 计维持 ...

证券代码：839979 沥青期货周报 2025年09月22日-09月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 本周重要数据概览 | 沥青焦化利润 | | | 周度出货量 | | | 周度产量及减损量 | | 周度开工率 | | | 周度库存 | | 类 别 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 延迟焦化沥青价差 （周度） | 沥青 （日度） | 华 东 | 山 东 | 全 国 | 周度检修量 | 样本企业产量 | 全国重交 | 山东地炼 | 华东重交 | 港口稀释沥青 | 厂 内 ...

证券代码：839979 PVC期货周报 2025年09月22日-09月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 本周01合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为4955元/吨,周五收盘价为4897元/吨，周跌幅为1.17% 供给端来看,据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨,环比增加3.40%;本周样本企业 产能利用率为78.97%,环比增加0.03个百分点;电石法企业产量33.7665万吨,环比增加2.76%,乙烯 法企业产量14.061万吨,环比增加6.27%;本周供给压力有所增加;下周预计检修有所减少，预计排 产少量增加。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为47.76%,环比减少1.5个百分点,低于历史平均水平;下游型材开 工率为38.91%,环比减少 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (9.22-9.26) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油自低位回升，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶65.19美元，周涨4.54%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶68.82 美元，周涨4.19%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶495元，周涨1.64%。尽管此前美方表示欧盟应该停止购买俄罗斯石油，但匈牙利方面表示，匈方 反对在没有可行替代方案的情况下提前停止进口俄罗斯化石燃料，伊拉克原油出口增加的预期导致油价承压下跌，原油在周初下行，但之后乌 克兰袭击行动导致位于俄罗斯新罗西斯克港口附近的石油装运设施以及终端设备瘫痪，相关设施每日出口原油约200万桶， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | 3万吨 ， | 环比有所增加1 . | 09% 。 | | | | . | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 . | 6万吨 环比增长7 ， | 50% . . | 需求有所抬升 . | | | | | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为22 . | 6万吨 处于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 74,580 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 72,880 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.20%. It is expected that next week, the supply side will reduce production, the demand side will continue to increase, and the cost will remain low. The futures market may have a bull - biased volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate declined this week, with the opening price on Monday at 74,580 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 72,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.20% [4]. - **Supply Side**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 12,989 tons, a 0.93% increase; lithium mica production was 2,840 tons, a 0.69% decrease; salt lake production was 2,763 tons, a 0.66% increase; recycling production was 1,924 tons, a 1.85% increase [4]. - **Demand Side**: In August 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 104,023 physical tons, an 8.25% increase. The predicted demand for next month is 109,470 physical tons, a 5.24% increase. The export volume in August was 369 physical tons, a 0.82% increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 410 physical tons, an 11.11% increase. The production and installation of power batteries, the production of energy - storage batteries, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles all showed growth trends, which supported the demand for lithium carbonate [5][6]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,418 yuan/ton, a 0.12% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,888 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a loss of 8,189 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The smelter inventory was 33,492 tons, a 2.79% decrease; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a 2.35% increase; other inventories were 42,440 tons, a 2.61% decrease; the total inventory was 136,825 tons, a 0.51% decrease [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Market - related Data**: The report presents the price trends of lithium carbonate, including the main contract price, battery - grade price, and basis. It also shows the production, import, export, and inventory data of lithium ores, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, as well as their supply - demand balance sheets [12][15][18][27][32]. - **Cost - profit Analysis**: It analyzes the cost - profit situations of various lithium compounds, such as the cost - profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials, the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export [35][37][40]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - The main 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week. By analyzing the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages of the LC main contract, it is predicted that the futures market may have a bull - biased volatile adjustment next week [78].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨，环比增加3.43%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.97%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量33.7665万吨，环比增加2.76%,乙烯法企业产 量14.061万吨，环比增加6.27%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为47.76%，环比减少1.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38.91%，环比减少0.52个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.43%，环比增加.3个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 3.50%. It is expected that next week, the supply side's production schedule will increase, the demand recovery will be at a low level, and the cost support will rise. The disk is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 11 - contract also declined this week, with a weekly decline of 2.75%. It is predicted that the supply - side production schedule will decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable, and the disk is expected to have a neutral sideways adjustment [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 93,000 tons, a 1.09% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,310 tons, remaining unchanged. The expected monthly start - up rate is 59.19%, a 3.32 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 86,000 tons, a 7.50% increase. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory is 226,000 tons; in the organic silicon sector, the inventory is 73,200 tons, and the production profit is - 708 yuan/ton; in the aluminum alloy sector, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 72,000 tons [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3,020 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 543,000 tons, remaining unchanged; the sample enterprise inventory is 162,500 tons, a 7.11% decrease; the main port inventory is 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,100 tons, a 0.32% increase. The predicted production schedule for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from last month [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW, a 1.00% decrease; the battery cell production is in a loss state, and the component production is profitable. The production schedules for September of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are expected to increase [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,400 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 226,000 tons, a 10.78% increase, at a historically high level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [14][15]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises, as well as the registered warehouse receipt volume [18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises, the monthly production by specification, and the start - up rate trends [20][21][22]. - **Cost**: It includes the electricity price trends in main production areas, the silicon stone price trends in main production places, the graphite electrode price trends, and the price trends of some reducing agents [25]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Both the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [29][32]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc. [34][36][41]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It examines the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (in the automotive and wheel hub sectors) trends of aluminum alloy [44][47][49]. - **Polysilicon**: It studies the cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation related to polysilicon [52][55][58][61][64][67][70][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment next week [75][77]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract declined, and it is predicted to have a narrow - range sideways adjustment next week [78][79].