Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Date: October 13, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower with a gap, briefly dropping to 4,450 ringgit due to the decline in US soybean oil prices before showing signs of a rebound. The SPPOMA's slowing production growth and strong export data from shipping agencies may support the market. After consolidation, there is a chance for the futures to strengthen further and potentially break through previous highs [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward adjustment phase, breaking below the 40 - day moving average and facing downward pressure. They are expected to fill the previous gap. After stabilization, influenced by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil, there is a possibility of a resurgence. If they can rise above the 40 - day moving average, they may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil [3]. Soybean Oil - The decline of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil on October 10 due to the deterioration of Sino - US trade relations led to a slight drop in Dalian soybean oil. However, the bearish sentiment has eased, and the stabilization of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil has limited the decline of Dalian soybean oil. Domestically, with sufficient soybean supply and high inventory, and weakening demand after restocking, the fundamentals are bearish. The January contract is currently oscillating around the daily mid - track at 8,300 yuan, with a potential for further decline [4]. Soybean Meal - Dalian's January contract price of soybean meal rebounded weakly, affected by the uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. However, the ample supply in the spot market restricts its upward momentum. The market is focused on the progress of the communication between Chinese and US leaders at the end of the month, with the price oscillating narrowly between 2,920 - 2,960 yuan/ton. As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 1.003 million tons compared to the previous week, a 9.11% decline. With high inventory in oil mills and continuous capacity reduction in the breeding sector, the spot price lacks upward momentum and is trading between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [17]. Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil: Palm oil futures prices showed declines across different contracts. The BMD palm oil main contract dropped 1.69% to 4,467 ringgit/ton. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou decreased by 220 yuan to 9,220 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou 24 - degree basis increased by 122 yuan to 2 yuan/ton [8]. - Soybean Oil: The prices of soybean oil futures contracts also had mixed changes. The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 1.96% to 49.97 cents/pound. The price of Shandong first - grade soybean oil decreased by 60 yuan to 8,450 yuan/ton, and the basis remained unchanged at 208 yuan/ton [14]. - Oil Spreads: Various oil spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., showed different changes. For example, P 1 - 5 decreased by 38 yuan/ton to 172 yuan/ton, and Y - P 01 increased by 102 yuan/ton to - 1,136 yuan/ton [5]. Oilseed Price and Spread - Oilseed Futures Prices: The prices of oilseed futures contracts like soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different movements. For instance, soybean meal 01 rose 10 points to 2,932, with a 0.34% increase, while soybean meal 05 fell 8 points to 2,746, a 0.29% decline [18]. - Oilseed Spreads: Spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, also changed. M01 - 05 remained unchanged at 168, while RM01 - 05 decreased by 38 to 63 [19].

基本面及观点 尿素产业链周报 尿素产业链周报 2025/10/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：刘琛瑞 Z0017093 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引 ...

Report Date - The report is dated October 13, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Steel - The current overseas macro - environment is under pressure. Whether the Sino - US trade negotiation can ease will be the core factor affecting asset prices. The overall situation is bearish, and asset prices may face pressure. With the weakening of steel fundamentals and the weakening support of iron ore, steel prices are more likely to decline. Short - term macro - level changes will have a higher impact than fundamental changes, and market volatility may increase [3] Iron Ore - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are under marginal pressure. Shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, downstream hot metal has support, but steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and profits are declining. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, still oscillating within a range [22] Coal and Coke - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of downstream finished products has deteriorated, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, and the second round of coke price increase is difficult. In the medium - to - long term, under the policy constraints of "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection", the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which will support coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of the downstream steel can achieve a "soft landing" [34] Ferroalloys - There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand in ferroalloys. The production of ferrosilicon remains high, while the production of silicomanganese has declined for many weeks. The cost support is challenged due to the continuous decline of coking coal prices [53] Soda Ash - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. The second - phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and is in the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The inventory of upstream alkali plants is starting to accumulate. The overall high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches restricts the price of soda ash, but there is limited downward space due to cost support [64] Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November. Glass production and sales are average, and the upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some glass production lines still have the intention to ignite. The high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price increase [89] Summary by Directory Steel Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3083, 3139, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3261, 3274, and 3437 yuan/ton respectively [4] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3237 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton [8] Basis and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 137 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 182 yuan/ton [8][14] Iron Ore Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 804.5, 781, and 759 yuan/ton respectively [23] Fundamental Data - As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 14024.5 tons, and the global iron ore shipment volume was 3207.5 tons [28] Coal and Coke Futures Prices and Basis - On October 13, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 38.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1583 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 83.1 yuan/ton [39] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1530 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [40] Ferroalloys Ferrosilicon - On October 13, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5230 yuan/ton [54] Silicomanganese - On October 13, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, and the silicomanganese spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [56] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1336, 1406, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton [65] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [68] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1313, 1392, and 1179 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton [89] Production and Sales - On October 10, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 61%, in Hubei was 82%, in East China was 82%, and in South China was 100% [90]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The continuous push of safe - haven demand, central bank gold - buying trends, and monetary policy easing expectations have strengthened the medium - to - long - term upward logic of precious metals prices [3]. - The copper price is caught between the strong expectation of supply shortage and the weak expectation of tariff policy, leading to short - term high - level fluctuations in futures prices [16]. - Macroeconomic policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai Aluminum. The price has been affected by factors such as employment data, tariff announcements, and supply disruptions. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [35]. - The fundamentals of zinc have not improved. Although the zinc price has risen, the domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is obvious [56]. - The nickel price is mainly influenced by the situation of the Indonesian nickel ore market. The downstream of the new energy sector has a good demand, and the stainless steel market has some positive factors, but is also affected by tariff uncertainties [69]. - Due to increased macro - uncertainty, the tin price is expected to correct in the short term [85]. - Considering supply and demand factors, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show a weakening trend with fluctuations [98]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon is focused on the establishment of the storage platform and the cancellation of warehouse receipts, with high volatility and risk [109]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold - buying trends are driving up precious metals prices. The gold ETF holdings have rebounded [3]. - **Price Charts**: Various price charts, including SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices, and gold - related spreads, are provided [4][10][12] Copper - **Price Outlook**: The copper price is in a high - level fluctuation due to the tug - of - war between supply and policy expectations. Further upward breakthrough may require the support of rate - cut expectations and domestic policies [16]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory data are presented [17][22][33] Aluminum - **Price Influencing Factors**: Macroeconomic policies, employment data, tariff announcements, and supply disruptions are affecting the aluminum price. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [35]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are provided [36][44][50] Zinc - **Price Outlook**: The zinc price has risen, but the domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. The import - export situation is also a factor [56]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are presented [57][63][66] Nickel - **Price Influencing Factors**: The Indonesian nickel ore market, new energy demand, and stainless steel market trends are influencing the nickel price. Tariff uncertainties also have an impact [69]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current nickel and stainless steel futures prices, inventory data, and downstream profit data are provided [70][76][80] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to increased macro - uncertainty, the tin price is expected to correct in the short term [85]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current tin futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are presented [85][88][93] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Considering supply and demand factors, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show a weakening trend with fluctuations [98]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory data are provided [99][103][107] Silicon - **Price Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon is focused on the establishment of the storage platform and the cancellation of warehouse receipts, with high volatility and risk [109]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current industrial silicon and polysilicon spot prices, production data, and inventory data are presented [110][116][123]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weekly supply of PVC increased while the demand decreased, and both factory and enterprise inventories significantly accumulated. The price of upstream calcium carbide dropped sharply after the holiday, weakening the cost support for PVC. With production at a high level compared to the same period last year, the price of PVC was generally weak [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Supply - The overall PVC production enterprise operating rate was 82.63%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 4.56%. Among them, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 82.94%, up 0.99% week - on - week and 4.67% year - on - year; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.9%, up 2.70% week - on - week and 4.41% year - on - year [8]. - PVC production was 1.68 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 50.36% [8]. 3.2 Demand - The operating rate of PVC sample downstream enterprises was 39.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 17.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.16% [8]. 3.3 Inventory, Spread - PVC factory inventory was 38.36 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 28.04% and a year - on - year increase of 0.02%. Social inventory was 55.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.59% and a year - on - year increase of 15.06% [8]. - The basis was - 95, and the monthly spread was - 318 [8]. 3.4 Price, Cost, Profit - The weekly average price of PVC: the calcium carbide method was 4,640 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.11%; the ethylene method was 4,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2% [8]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method was 5,493 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 538 yuan/ton; the cost of the ethylene method was 5,127 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 487 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was - 176.00 yuan/ton [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: Weekly supply decreased while demand increased, downstream polyester inventory accumulated, processing fees recovered slightly at a low level, and the prices were mainly under pressure and fluctuating due to the significant decline in the cost side of crude oil and PX [7] - PX: Supply growth was slightly higher than demand, inventory was moderately high, and the industrial chain profits were concentrated in PX in the early stage, with an expectation of being transmitted downstream in the future [7] - Short - fiber: Both supply and demand decreased. Due to the National Day holiday, downstream开工 decreased, but downstream polyester yarn continued to destock, and the demand for raw material replenishment increased slightly. The price fluctuations followed the raw material PTA [7] - MEG: Supply growth was greater than demand. Inventory accumulated at a low level this week. The market pre - traded new production capacity, and high supply might suppress medium - to - long - term prices [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - **PTA**: The current PTA domestic开工率 is 74.9%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88% [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The current ethylene glycol domestic开工率 is 74.87%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.88% and a year - on - year increase of 9.40% [7] - **Short - fiber**: The current short - fiber domestic开工率 is 94.3%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 12.00% [7] 3.2 Demand - Polyester end开工率 is 91.65%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.60% [7] 3.3 Inventory and Spread - **PTA**: There are data on PTA's weekly dynamic inventory and 1 - 5 month spread [38][39] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There are data on ethylene glycol's port inventory and 1 - 5 month spread [41][42] - **Short - fiber**: There are data on short - fiber's weekly equity inventory days and price - basis spread [44][45] 3.4 Price, Cost, and Profit - **PTA**: The current PTA spot price is 6,365 yuan/ton, and there are data on PTA's spot processing fees and cost [7][47][48] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The current ethylene glycol price is 4450 yuan/ton, and there are data on ethylene glycol's cost and profit in the naphtha integration process [7][50][51] - **Short - fiber**: The current short - fiber price is 4070 yuan/ton, and there are data on short - fiber's cost and profit [7][53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level correction. MPOB inventory at 236 million tons exceeded the market estimate of 215 million tons, but the export growth in the first 10 days supported the market. Short - term focus is on whether it can stop falling and stabilize between 4,500 - 4,550 ringgit. If it can stand above 4,500 ringgit, there's a chance to strengthen; otherwise, it may fall to 4,350 ringgit [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are also in a correction. Affected by Malaysian palm oil, there's pressure to break below the 40 - day moving average and fill the gap, with a possible drop to 9,000 yuan. The overall trend depends on Malaysian palm oil. As domestic temperatures drop after the National Day holiday, palm oil consumption will weaken, keeping the market in a near - strong and far - weak pattern [3]. Soybean Oil - After the National Day holiday, traders replenished stocks. As replenishment ends, demand will weaken. In the fourth quarter, soybean imports are estimated at 28 - 29 million tons, and factories will maintain high operating rates, dragging down the futures market. Before the Sino - US summit, CBOT soybeans are range - bound, having limited impact on domestic oils. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure at 8,400 yuan, is expected to fluctuate around 8,300 yuan, and may fall back to 8,000 yuan due to sufficient supply [4]. Bean Meal - The theoretical spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal has improved, but without a clear Sino - US trade negotiation result, Dalian bean meal lacks a continuous driving force and is expected to trade between 2,900 - 2,950 yuan/ton in the short term. Spot prices of oil mills decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Supply - side: After the holiday, oil mills resumed production, and inventories in East and South China are accumulating. Demand - side: Post - holiday prices of poultry and pigs fell, and feed enterprises are digesting high - cost inventories. The short - term market shows weak supply and demand, with spot prices expected to range from 2,900 - 3,100 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Monthly and Inter - Variety Spreads - Provided data on spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., including prices and daily changes [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Showed the latest prices and price changes of palm oil contracts (01, 05, 09), BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou, as well as palm oil basis and other data [8]. Domestic First - Grade Soybean - 24 - Degree Palm Oil Spread - No specific data summary provided, only mentioned the topic and source [11]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Presented the latest prices and price changes of soybean oil contracts (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong, as well as soybean oil basis and other data [14]. POGO Spread and Related Data - Provided information on POGO spread and the weekly average spread between US biodiesel and diesel, along with their sources [16]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Gave the closing prices, daily changes, and price change rates of bean meal (01, 05, 09), rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB [19]. Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Included data on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc., as well as spot prices and basis of bean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions, and the spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal [20][22]. International Soybean Crushing Profit - Showed the crushing profit of international soybeans and imported rapeseed from overseas, along with their sources [31].

Report Date - The report is dated October 10, 2025 [1] Steel Industry Core View - Yesterday's upward movement in the steel futures market was a rebound driven by events and macro - optimistic sentiment, lacking fundamental support. With the core supply - demand contradiction unresolved, upward resistance is significant, and the market is expected to remain under pressure, but the impact of favorable macro - policies should be watched [3] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3103 yuan/ton, up from 3096 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3285 yuan/ton, down slightly from 3286 yuan/ton on October 9 [4] - **Spot Prices**: The aggregated rebar price in China on October 10 was 3262 yuan/ton, up from 3257 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai remained at 3350 yuan/ton [7][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 56 yuan/ton, up from - 63 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month spread remained at - 7 yuan/ton [4] Iron Ore Industry Core View - With the seasonal recovery of terminal demand, marginal improvement in fundamentals, and continuous supply - side disturbances, iron ore prices are expected to show an "easily rising and hard - falling" trend in the short term [19] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 795 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the previous day [20] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Rizhao PB powder on October 10 was 789 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [20] Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output on October 10 was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port ore handling volume was 327 tons, down 9.4 tons from the previous week [23] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Core View - In the fourth quarter, domestic coking coal mine production is restricted by policies. The winter storage this year is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coking coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel [29] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: The coking coal 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 98 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the coke 01 - 05 month spread was - 152.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day [33] - **Spot Prices**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal on October 10 was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [34] Ferroalloy Industry Core View - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five - year historical period, while demand has not improved significantly during the peak season. There is a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Cost factors and capital outflows also affect prices [43] Price Data - **Silicon Iron**: On October 10, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from the previous day [44] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on October 10 was 270 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day [48] Soda Ash Industry Core View - Market sentiment fluctuations increase soda ash price volatility. With the second - phase ignition of Yuanxing, future supply pressure persists. The supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, although exports have alleviated some domestic pressure [57] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1332 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day [58] - **Spot Prices**: The heavy - soda market price in North China on October 10 was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61] Glass Industry Core View - High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and weak real - world demand limit glass prices. The supply - demand pattern in the near - term is one of strong supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to supply, cost, and inventory factors [85] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day [86] - **Spot Prices**: The basis of the glass 05 contract in Shahe on October 10 was - 99 yuan/ton, up 10.8 yuan from the previous day [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Domestic sugar prices are supported by potential production cuts in Guangdong and Guangxi due to typhoons, but are limited by abundant international supply from Brazil and global oversupply expectations. In the short term, sugar prices are expected to remain range - bound [3]. - Cotton: Short - term cotton price decline may slow down as seed cotton purchase prices rise slightly, but weak downstream demand, insufficient market confidence, and new cotton supply pressure will bring hedging pressure on cotton prices [15]. - Apple: Continuous rainy weather in apple - producing areas has affected the quality and supply schedule. Good - quality apples' price increases will boost apple futures prices in the near term, with near - month contracts showing stronger trends and long - term prices being more volatile [19]. - Jujube: With new - season jujubes about to be harvested, high inventory of old jujubes and limited orders from inland merchants may lead to downward pressure on jujube prices [28]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Price and Spread**: On October 10, 2025, SR01 closed at 5496 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.58% and a weekly increase of 0.20%. Price spreads such as SR01 - 05 were also provided [4]. - **Basis**: On October 9, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 272 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decline of 11 yuan/ton [10]. - **Import Price**: On October 10, 2025, the quota - free import price of Brazilian sugar was 4482 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 28 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 190 yuan/ton [13]. Cotton - **Futures Price**: On the reporting date, cotton 01 closed at 13325 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.23%); cotton yarn 01 closed at 19375 yuan/ton, unchanged [16]. - **Spread**: The cotton basis was 1432 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the flower - yarn spread was 6060 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton [17]. Apple - **Futures and Spot Price**: On October 10, 2025, AP01 closed at 8744 yuan/ton, up 1.29% daily and 3.53% weekly. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8 yuan/jin, unchanged [20]. - **Spread and Basis**: AP01 - 05 was 111 yuan/ton, down 39.67% daily and up 27.59% weekly; the main - contract basis was - 91 yuan/ton, down 495.65% daily and 135.55% weekly [20]. Jujube - **Futures Spread and Inventory**: The report shows historical trends of jujube futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and the sum of jujube warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [29][31]. - **Price Trends**: It also presents the price trends of Xinjiang jujube main - producing areas and main - sales areas [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for safe - haven assets is boosted by the potential U.S. government shutdown, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is strengthened. The real interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds is declining. Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and the "de - dollarization" trend enhances the allocation value of gold. Geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about the U.S. dollar's credit further support the long - term safe - haven nature of precious metals [3]. - The upward gap of Shanghai copper yesterday was in line with expectations. Whether sentiment or expectation will be dominant in the future may affect copper price fluctuations. From a trend perspective, Shanghai copper has broken through, and in the short - term cycle, it has reached the upper range of fluctuations. Adjustment at high levels is not unexpected, and the same situation applies to LME copper [18]. - Affected by copper and gold prices and macro - policies, Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Alumina is still in an oversupply situation, and the prices of domestic and foreign spot alumina are continuously falling. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up effect on Shanghai aluminum and is also expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [37]. - The zinc price was driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous metal sector in the previous trading day. The LME zinc price was stronger during the holiday, and the import profit and loss has reached a low point, with the export window expected to open soon. The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are still weak, with an obvious pattern of strong supply and weak demand [61]. - In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel mines in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to decrease. The purchasing intention in the new energy sector has recovered after the holiday, and the price of nickel iron is limited in its downward space due to cost pressure. The spot trading of stainless steel has improved after the holiday, and the export situation is favorable [77]. - Affected by the U.S. government shutdown during the holiday, the macro - uncertainty has increased. The expectation of interest rate cuts has become the main trading logic in the market again. Coupled with supply - side disturbances in Wa State and Indonesia, Shanghai tin is still considered to be in a strong position [91]. - The previous market expectation of the shutdown of lithium mines in Jiangxi has not been verified. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Xiawo lithium mine and the restocking situation of downstream sectors [107]. - For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, more enterprises are expected to cut production, and the price center may move slightly upward, but the overall inventory in the industry will suppress the price increase. For polysilicon, the market trading will focus on the expectations of "platform establishment in October" and "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November", and investors should be cautious due to high volatility [118]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold prices and U.S. Treasury real interest rates and the U.S. dollar index are presented [4][10]. - **Inventory data**: SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot price differences, and the inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver are shown [6][17]. Copper - **Futures data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and LME copper futures are provided. The main contract closing price, trading volume, and open interest of Shanghai copper futures are also presented [19][21]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic copper spot prices are given, including those of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumao, and others. The import profit and loss of copper, the difference between refined and scrap copper prices, and the warehouse receipt data of Shanghai copper are also included [24][33]. Aluminum - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and alumina futures are provided, as well as the price differences between different contracts [38][42]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic aluminum spot prices are given, including those of East China, Foshan, and Central China. The import profit and loss of aluminum and alumina, and the inventory data of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are also included [49][55]. Zinc - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures are provided, as well as the price differences between different contracts [62]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic zinc spot prices are given, including those of SMM 0 zinc and SMM 1 zinc. The inventory data of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc are also included [70][74]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data of Shanghai nickel [78]. - **Industry data**: The quota policy of nickel mines in Indonesia, the market situation of the new energy sector, the price of nickel iron, and the export situation of stainless steel are presented [77]. Tin - **Futures data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided [91]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic tin spot prices are given, including those of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots and tin concentrates. The inventory data of Shanghai tin and LME tin are also included [98][102]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided, as well as the price differences between different contracts [108]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium spot prices are given, including those of lithium mica, lithium spodumene concentrate, and others. The inventory data of lithium carbonate are also included [112][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon** - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot prices in different regions are provided, as well as the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts [119][120]. - **Industry data**: The production, inventory, and capacity utilization rate data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are presented [132][134]. - **Polysilicon** - **Price data**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and components are presented [125][126]. - **Industry data**: The total inventory of polysilicon in China and the average cost of the polysilicon industry are presented [135][136].