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LPG行业周报-20251201
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 09:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost - side crude oil is weak, while the fundamentals are marginally improving. The expectation of inventory reduction and supply contraction dominate short - term sentiment. LPG futures may run with a slight upward trend in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of import arrivals [2][3] 3. Summary of Key Information - **Supply and Inventory**: Supply pressure is marginally relieved. Enterprises actively reduce inventory, and the decrease in imported arrivals has increased the market's expectation of the start of the de - stocking cycle, which supports the sentiment of the futures market [2] - **Cost Factors**: Middle - East propane supply has tightened, and the Far - East arrival premium has stabilized, improving both the cost side and market sentiment. However, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks weakens the geopolitical risk premium, causing the decline of crude oil and dragging down the cost support of LPG [2] - **Demand Situation**: Downstream customers strongly resist high prices, with purchases mainly for essential needs. The incremental demand for winter combustion has not met expectations, suppressing the upward momentum of spot prices [2]
燃料油产业周报-20251201
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 09:03
燃料油产业周报 2025/11/30 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可,任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...
白糖产业周报-20251201
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 08:50
Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Industry Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 30, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SR2501 contract will enter the delivery month in one month. Last week, the 01 - 03 spread widened. The strong performance of the 01 contract is due to the fact that the price of new sugar is higher than that of old sugar and much higher than the futures price, leading to the need for futures - spot convergence. With the recent recovery in the overseas market, it is possible for the futures price to converge through a small rebound. [5] - Both the SR2603 and SR2605 contracts currently show a contango structure, mainly because the 25/26 sugar season is expected to have an increase in production. However, the contango is not significant. Last week, the spread between near - term and far - term contracts narrowed due to the decline in the near - term contract. In the long run, the 03 contract will face pressure during the off - season of consumption and the peak inventory period, and the 05 contract will be affected by imported sugar. Therefore, the contango pattern is difficult to break, and the spread may widen in the future. [5] Market Information Domestic Market - Spot quotes: The price at the Liuzhou middleman's platform is 5610 - 5620 yuan/ton, and the price quoted by Kunming middlemen is 5400 - 5510 yuan/ton. [3] - In October, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 210,000 tons year - on - year. [3] International Market - ISO adjusted the global surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 162,500 tons, considering higher production expectations in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. [4] - In the first three weeks of November, Brazil exported 2.5637 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 183,100 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase. [4] - ISMA estimates that India's sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 34.35 million tons (including ethanol), with 3.4 million tons of sugar used for ethanol production. [4] - India's NFCSF has urged the government to raise the minimum domestic sugar sales price to 41 rupees per kilogram, adjust the ethanol price, and approve more sugarcane for ethanol production. [4] - The market expects that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will increase by 14.9% to 1.885 million tons, and sugar production will increase by 18.9% year - on - year to 107,500 tons. [4] - India has opened an export quota of 1.5 million tons, lower than the market's expectation of 2 million tons. Currently, the possibility of exports is low because the domestic sugar price in India is higher than the overseas price. [4] - As of November 19, 147 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, have started crushing, processing 1.1277 million tons of sugarcane and producing 86,810 quintals of sugar, with an average sugar recovery rate of 7.4%. In the same period last year, only 91 mills were operating, processing 135,000 tons of sugarcane with a sugar recovery rate of 4.2%. [4] Price and Spread Data Futures Weekly Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price on December 1, 2025 | Change Rate | Spread | Closing Price on December 1, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR01 | 5400 | 0% | SR01 - 05 | 73 | 0 | | SR03 | 5360 | 0% | SR05 - 09 | - 16 | 0 | | SR05 | 5327 | 0% | SR09 - 01 | - 57 | 0 | | SR07 | 5337 | 0% | SR01 - 03 | 40 | 0 | | SR09 | 5343 | 0% | SR03 - 05 | 33 | 0 | | SR11 | 5339 | 0% | SR05 - 07 | - 10 | 0 | | SB | 15.21 | 0% | SR07 - 09 | - 6 | 0 | | W | 435.6 | 0% | SR09 - 11 | 4 | 0 | | | | | SR11 - 01 | - 61 | 0 | [6] Spot Weekly Price and Spread | Location | Price on November 28, 2025 | Change | Spread | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nanning | 5450 | - 30 | Nanning - Liuzhou | 10 | 0 | | Liuzhou | 5440 | - 30 | Nanning - Kunming | 10 | 0 | | Kunming | 5440 | - 30 | Nanning - Zhanjiang | 50 | - 30 | | Zhanjiang | 5400 | 0 | Nanning - Rizhao | - 350 | 0 | | Rizhao | 5800 | - 30 | Nanning - Urumqi | 200 | - 30 | | Urumqi | 5250 | 0 | Kunming - Rizhao | - 360 | 0 | [7] Weekly Basis | Basis | Basis on December 1, 2025 | Change | Basis | Basis on December 1, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nanning - SR01 | 70 | - 10 | Kunming - SR01 | 55 | - 75 | | Nanning - SR03 | 110 | 6 | Kunming - SR03 | 95 | - 59 | | Nanning - SR05 | 143 | 12 | Kunming - SR05 | 128 | - 53 | | Nanning - SR07 | 133 | 11 | Kunming - SR07 | 118 | - 54 | | Nanning - SR09 | 127 | 13 | Kunming - SR09 | 112 | - 52 | | Nanning - SR11 | 131 | 12 | Kunming - SR11 | 116 | - 53 | [8][10] Weekly Import Price Change | Import Source | In - quota Price on November 26, 2025 | Weekly Change | Out - of - quota Price | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brazil | 4157 | 125 | 5271 | 164 | | Rizhao - Brazil | 1643 | - 90 | 529 | - 109 | | Liuzhou - Brazil | 1248 | - 129 | 134 | - 168 | | Zhengzhou Sugar - Brazil | 1222 | - 127 | 108 | - 166 | | Thailand | 4206 | 86 | 5334 | 112 | | Rizhao - Thailand | 1594 | - 90 | 466 | - 109 | | Liuzhou - Thailand | 1199 | - 90 | 71 | - 116 | | Zhengzhou Sugar - Thailand | 1173 | - 88 | 45 | - 114 | [11]
有色周报:碳酸锂-20251130
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-30 02:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals are strong but there are frequent disturbances. The expected resumption of mining production and policy position limits have triggered a long - short game. In the short term, lithium prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to inventory depletion and the resumption rhythm [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - The fundamentals of lithium are strong, with tight supply - demand balance in the industry chain as weekly inventory has dropped to 116,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2,452 tons) for 13 consecutive weeks. However, there are also disturbances such as the accelerated resumption of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine and the weakening of downstream procurement after the rise in spot prices, along with the impact of exchange position - limit measures [10][12]. 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, global lithium demand has been increasing. For example, the demand for power battery cathodes increased from 66,000 tons LCE in 2018A to 880,000 tons LCE in 2025E. The global effective lithium supply has also been growing, from 309,000 tons LCE in 2018A to 1,650,000 tons LCE in 2025E. The global effective lithium supply - demand balance shows a trend of change, with a surplus in most years [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In the domestic market, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been fluctuating. For example, in November 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate is estimated to be 119,100 tons, and the total demand is 129,892 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 10,792 tons. In December 2025E, the total supply is estimated to be 121,960 tons, and the total demand is 127,806 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 5,846 tons [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate is 119,100 tons and 121,960 tons respectively, and the total demand is 129,892 tons and 127,806 tons respectively, showing a supply shortage [10][16]. - **Other Products**: There are also data on the supply and demand of products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, including their production, output growth rates, etc. [23][31][41] 3.3.2 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the monthly inventory of lithium carbonate was 84,234 physical tons, including 53,291 physical tons of downstream inventory and 30,943 physical tons of smelter inventory. This week, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 115,968 physical tons, including 24,324 physical tons of smelter inventory, 41,984 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 49,660 physical tons of battery and trader inventory [10][74]. - **Other Products**: There are also inventory data for products such as ternary materials, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium [76][77]. 3.3.3 Price - On November 28, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.57%, and the futures price was 96,420 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,670 yuan/ton. There are also price data for other products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium [82][83]. 3.3.4 Import and Export - There are data on the import and export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including the import volume from different countries and the export volume to different countries [80].
铜周报:铜价延续上涨趋势-20251130
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-30 02:05
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot processing fee of copper concentrate remains at a low level of -$40 per ton. Disruptions such as the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia continue, and the global shortage of copper ore supports copper prices [4]. - The copper consumption in power, new energy vehicles, and AI data centers has increased significantly, offsetting the weakness in traditional sectors, and the demand is relatively resilient [4]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is volatile, and the strengthening of the US dollar increases the cost of purchasing copper. The non - farm payrolls in the US in September exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, intensifying concerns about liquidity [4]. - The LME copper inventory increased by 16.08% week - on - week to 158,000 tons, reflecting weak overseas demand and suppressing the rebound of copper prices [4]. - The game between supply and demand continues, with the contradiction between supply shortage and high inventory. In the short term, copper prices will remain in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and the rhythm of terminal restocking [5]. 3. Summary by Categories Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Open Interest | Weekly Change in Open Interest | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 87,430 | 2.07% | 218,257 | 28,039 | 94,508 | | Shanghai Copper Index Weighted | 87,377 | 2.04% | 546,511 | 29,036 | 194,048 | | International Copper | 78,770 | 3.21% | 1,289 | - 2,040 | 2,580 | | LME Copper 3 - month | 10,930 | 2.28% | 239,014 | - 38,282 | 10,519 | | COMEX Copper | 516.25 | 4.22% | 134,293 | 65,265 | 12,165 | [6] Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 87,400 | 1,585 | 1.85% | | Shanghai Wumaomao | Yuan/ton | 87,360 | 1,490 | 1.74% | | Guangdong Nanchu | Yuan/ton | 87,390 | 1,490 | 1.73% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 87,440 | 1,460 | 1.7% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 110 | 20 | 22.22% | | Shanghai Wumaomao Premium | Yuan/ton | 65 | 5 | 8.33% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | Yuan/ton | 105 | 20 | 23.53% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium | US dollars/ton | 16.56 | 35.45 | - 187.67% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium | US dollars/ton | 166.25 | 48.57 | 41.27% | [11][12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit and Loss | Yuan/ton | - 860.94 | - 370.97 | 75.71% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 42.15 | - 0.43 | 1.03% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 4.0517 | 0.0447 | 1.12% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | Yuan/ton | 3,543.83 | 868.94 | 32.49% | [13] Copper Inventory Data (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Value | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 35,244 | - 14,546 | - 29.21% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 5,502 | - 700 | - 11.29% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | Tons | 97,930 | - 12,673 | - 11.46% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 151,100 | 2,650 | 1.79% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 6,075 | - 3,400 | - 35.88% | | LME Copper Inventory | Tons | 157,175 | - 750 | - 0.47% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 194,336 | 20,085 | 11.53% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 223,330 | 5,903 | 2.71% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | Tons | 417,666 | 25,988 | 6.64% | | Copper Ore Port Inventory | 10,000 tons | 59.6 | 6.6 | 12.45% | | Social Inventory | 10,000 tons | 41.82 | 0.43 | 1.04% | [18][21] Copper Mid - stream Production Data (Monthly) | Production Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 120.4 | 8.9 | 1,229.5 | 9.7 | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 200.4 | - 3.3 | 2,012.4 | 5.9 | [24] Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization Data (Monthly) | Capacity Type | Date | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 1,584 | 56.2 | - 9.03 | - 5.35 | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 819 | 24.11 | - 1.26 | - 1.69 | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 359 | 63.84 | - 2.4 | - 8.4 | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 228.65 | 50.13 | - 0.77 | 0.1 | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 278.3 | 52.57 | - 6.87 | - 15.63 | [26] Copper Element Import Data (Monthly) | Import Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 245.1487 | 6 | 2,511.8228 | 8 | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 55,239 | - 8 | 634,011 | - 15 | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 279,944 | - 22 | 2,817,921 | - 6 | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 196,607 | 7 | 1,895,530 | 2 | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 440,000 | - 13.5 | 4,460,000 | - 3.1 | [30]
黑色系周报:铁矿石-20251128
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 11:17
交易咨询业务:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色系周报—铁矿石 2025年11月28日 研究员:李海啸 交易咨询:Z0019568 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 http://www.eafutures .com 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完 整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司 不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下 做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者 (您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成 的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发 的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的 引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...
黑色系周报:钢材-20251128
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 11:16
Report Subject and Date - Subject: Black Series Weekly Report - Steel Products [2] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In this period, the production, inventory, and apparent demand of rebar decreased; the production of hot-rolled coils increased, while inventory and apparent demand decreased. The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased month-on-month. The rebar 2601 contract fluctuated, and the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract also fluctuated [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro - Not provided in the content 2. Supply - In October 2025, China exported 9.782 million tons of steel products, a month-on-month decrease of 683,000 tons or 6.5%; the average price was $684.4 per ton, a month-on-month increase of $5.3 or 0.8%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.024 million tons or 6.6% [7] - The molten iron output was 2346800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 8100 tons [7] - The output of the five major steel products was 8.5571 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 58000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 57900 tons. The rebar output was 2.0608 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18800 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 218000 tons; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.1901 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 30000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 129200 tons [7] - The EAF operating rate was 69.13%, with no month-on-month change [7] 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 14.0081 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 322900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 2.2734 million tons. The rebar inventory was 5.3148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 218600 tons and a year-on-year increase of 838400 tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.009 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12100 tons and a year-on-year increase of 951800 tons [7] 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand of the five major steel products was 8.88 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61600 tons and a year-on-year increase of 104900 tons [7]
黑色系周报:双焦-20251128
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 11:02
交易咨询业务:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色系周报—双焦 2025年11月28日 研究员:李海啸 交易咨询:Z0019568 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 http://www.eafutures .com 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确 性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、 结论和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致 的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信 息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考, 交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用 本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进 行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报 告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...
锌产业周报-20251128
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 10:46
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views Bullish Factors - Multiple domestic policies to stabilize growth have been introduced, boosting the long - term zinc consumption outlook and warming market sentiment [3] - Some smelters are undergoing regular maintenance, which is expected to slightly affect domestic refined zinc production [3] Bearish Factors - Environmental protection policies in northern regions restrict the operation of some galvanized enterprises, dragging down downstream actual demand [3] - The processing fees for imported zinc concentrates remain high, with sufficient raw material supply for the smelting end and decent profits [3] Trading Advice - Market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, with policy expectations competing against weak reality. It is advisable to closely monitor inventory changes and macro - sentiment [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Data on galvanized sheet coil market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and steel mill weekly production are presented in a seasonal chart. The inventory and production data are shown from 2021 - 2025, and the market sentiment index is from 2023 - 2025 [4] - Seasonal charts of net exports of galvanized sheet (strip), die - cast zinc alloy, color - coated sheet (strip), and zinc oxide are provided, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][9][10] - Charts on real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, unsold area, and land and housing transaction data are presented, including 100 - major - city land transaction area and 30 - major - city housing transaction volume, with data from different time periods [11][13][15] - Chart on infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion is presented, showing cumulative year - on - year data for different sectors from 2020 - 2025 [16][17] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Seasonal charts of zinc concentrate monthly import volume, zinc concentrate TC, SMM zinc ingot monthly production, China's zinc ingot monthly production plus import volume, zinc concentrate raw - material inventory days, and various zinc inventories (LME, SHFE, etc.) are provided, with data from 2021 - 2025 [19][21][23][24][27] - Chart on refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fees is presented, showing data from 2022 - 2024 [23] Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts on domestic and international zinc price trends, Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume and open interest, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium/discount, zinc ingot basis in three locations, and Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality are provided, with data covering different time periods from 2022 - 2025 [30][31][32][34][36]
镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20251128
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 10:44
Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views Bullish Factors - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is continuously tight due to the rainy season, providing support at the cost end [3] - Some domestic ferronickel enterprises are undergoing maintenance, leading to an expected partial contraction in supply [3] Bearish Factors - The demand for downstream stainless steel is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm for raw materials [3] - The new production capacity of electrolytic nickel continues to be released, and the overall supply pressure remains [3] Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to closely monitor the consumption of downstream stainless steel and the destocking of inventories to judge whether the demand side can be effectively improved [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest values of Shanghai Nickel main contract, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three are 116,900 yuan/ton, 116,900 yuan/ton, 117,110 yuan/ton, and 117,320 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1.19%, 2.50%, 2.52%, and 2.52% [4] - LME Nickel 3M is at 14,840 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.44% [4] - The trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts decreased by 34.55%, 13.4%, and 0.70% respectively [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The latest values of stainless steel main contract, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three are 12,410 yuan/ton, 12,410 yuan/ton, 12,480 yuan/ton, and 12,540 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1%, 0.98%, 0.89%, and 0.84% [5] - The trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts decreased by 14.16%, 25.08%, and 2.23% respectively [5] Spot Prices - The latest prices of Jinchuan Nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel are 121,300 yuan/ton, 117,050 yuan/ton, 119,000 yuan/ton, 119,100 yuan/ton, and 116,750 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 0.61%, 0.64%, 0.71%, 0.63%, and 0.76% [5] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 52,259 tons, a decrease of 855 tons; LME nickel inventory is 255,450 tons, an increase of 930 tons [7] - Stainless steel social inventory is 946 tons, an increase of 6 tons; ferronickel inventory is 30,225 tons, an increase of 661 tons [7] Charts and Graphs - The report includes multiple charts and graphs showing the historical prices, production, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel, such as the price trends of Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel, the production of Chinese refined nickel, and the inventory of domestic social nickel and LME nickel [8][14][15]