Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The sugar market is under pressure due to increased Brazilian sugar production in the first half of July and expected higher production in India for the 25/26 season, which eases supply concerns. Domestic processing sugar arrivals and weak consumption also contribute to the bearish sentiment [3]. - **Cotton**: The current decline in cotton prices may facilitate the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts. However, the expected tight supply at the end of the domestic cotton year may support prices, leading to short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to import quota policies, off - season inventory reduction, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [14]. - **Red Dates**: The number of first - crop gray dates in the new season is limited, but sufficient water supply and high farmer management enthusiasm have led to decent fruit - setting for the second and third crops. Overall production is expected to decline, but the extent is uncertain. The current temperature in Xinjiang is mild, and a temperature increase is expected soon, so fruit growth should be monitored [20]. - **Apples**: The sales of apples are affected by the impact of seasonal fruits, and the packaging volume in Shandong is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the supply is concentrated in northern areas, and the secondary production areas are almost cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of some varieties are the same as last year but have started to decline recently [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Price and Spread**: On August 8, 2025, SR01 closed at 5573 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.21% and a weekly decline of 0.84%. The price and spread data of other contracts are also provided [4]. - **Basis**: On August 7, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 385 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 10 yuan/ton. Similar data for other combinations are presented [9]. - **Import Price**: On August 8, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian imported sugar was 4398 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 35 yuan/ton and a weekly decline of 135 yuan/ton. The corresponding data for Thai imported sugar are also provided [12]. Cotton - **Futures Price**: On August 8, 2025, the closing price of Cotton 01 was 13800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 35 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.25%. The prices of other cotton and cotton yarn contracts are also given [15]. - **Spread**: The cotton basis was 1521 yuan/ton, with an increase of 33 yuan/ton. Other spreads such as cotton 01 - 05, flower - yarn spread, etc., are also presented [16]. Red Dates - **Futures Spread**: The report provides the historical spread data of red date futures contracts 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [21]. Apples - **Price Changes**: On August 8, 2025, AP01 closed at 7938 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.03% and a weekly increase of 3.29%. The prices and price changes of other contracts and spot prices are also provided [25]. - **Inventory**: The report shows the national, Shaanxi, and Shandong apple cold - storage inventory data from 2022 to 2025 [29][30].

油脂油料产业日报 2025/08/08 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous rise in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the People's Bank of China's consecutive 9 - month increase in gold reserves are the core supporting factors. The higher - than - expected number of initial jobless claims in the US strengthens the easing expectation, but the news of a meeting between Russian and US leaders eases geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment. Gold prices maintain a high - level volatile pattern under the influence of multiple factors [3]. - **Copper**: Copper prices have been mainly oscillating recently. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized. The spot market and inventory still have potential changes. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets, but investors should be wary of the negative impact of weak copper demand [15]. - **Aluminum**: Macro - level drivers for aluminum have temporarily slowed. In the short term, domestic demand has entered the off - season, downstream aluminum processing has declined, and social inventory has accumulated, but the absolute inventory remains low, supporting prices. Aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate. Alumina is expected to be weak in the short term due to high production capacity and rising inventory. The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy are good, and its futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price [36]. - **Zinc**: The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to oversupplied, and processing fees are expected to rise this month. The ore supply is abundant. Inventory has been accumulating, but LME zinc inventory provides some support. Demand is weak in the traditional off - season. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate with limited downside space in the short term [60]. - **Nickel**: Philippine nickel ore supply and domestic arrivals are high, and there is an expectation of price loosening. Nickel iron prices have strongly corrected, and stainless steel has reached the 13,000 - yuan mark, but downstream demand is weak. Sulfuric acid nickel has a tight supply in the market. Attention should be paid to the US dollar index [73]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rose slightly on Thursday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. Delays may lead to a slight upward movement in tin prices, while the impact of weak demand has not fully manifested [87]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disturbances persist, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range, strong - oscillating state. Attention should be paid to market changes and position risks [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Macro - level sentiment has faded. In the short term, the industry is expected to enter an oscillating state. In the long - term, the downside space for industrial silicon is limited, and the polysilicon market remains loose. Attention should be paid to industrial policies [115]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Conditions**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices, and the gold - silver ratio are presented. Long - term fund holdings of gold and silver, and the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver are also shown [4][12][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (including the main contract, consecutive contracts) and LME copper are provided. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized [15][16]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper in different domestic spot markets are given, as well as import profit and loss, processing fees, and the difference between refined and scrap copper [22][27][31]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper are presented [32][34]. Aluminum - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are provided. Spot aluminum prices in different regions, price differences, and import profit and loss are also shown [37][46]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts are presented [54]. Zinc - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided. Spot zinc prices, price differences, and import profit and loss are also shown [61][67]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory are presented [70]. Nickel - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided. Spot nickel prices, production costs, and downstream product prices are also shown [74][78]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts are presented [74]. Tin - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided. Spot tin prices and import profit and loss are also shown [88][94]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory are presented [98]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures are provided. Spot lithium prices, price differences, and import profit and loss are also shown [104][108]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts and social inventory are presented [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures and spot prices in different regions are provided. Price differences and basis are also shown [115][116]. - **Polysilicon and Related Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products are presented, as well as the inventory and production capacity of related products [122][133].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to high gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, a decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing index, increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, and rising risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday as a correction of the previous decline. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak copper demand [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Alumina prices are likely to be weak in the short term, while casting aluminum alloy shows good fundamentals [36]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a range - bound movement, with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disruptions [65]. - For the nickel industry, the nickel ore price is stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation. Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the future trend of nickel sulfate needs further attention [80]. - Tin prices have strong resilience. Supply - side issues remain unresolved, and if the situation drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange - related warehouses hit a record high, with over 36 tons of gold bars registered as deliverable goods, doubling from last month, indicating active arbitrage and strong investment demand [3]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut (90% probability of a rate cut in September). Trump's announcement of tariff hikes on countries like India also boosted risk - aversion sentiment, leading to an increase in the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF for two consecutive days, supporting the strong performance of gold prices [3]. Copper - Copper prices corrected the previous decline on Monday and Tuesday. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized, and COMEX copper's decline may slightly increase the valuations of other copper markets. However, weak copper demand remains a concern [15]. - The latest prices and daily changes of various copper futures and spot products are provided, including Shanghai copper futures, LME copper, and copper spot prices in different regions [16][24]. - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, refined - scrap price differences, and warehouse receipt data are presented [28][31][32]. Aluminum - Macro - level drivers for aluminum have weakened. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but low absolute inventories support aluminum prices, which are expected to face pressure and fluctuate [36]. - Alumina production capacity is high and in surplus, with rising inventories. The warehouse receipt issue may be resolved in August, and prices are likely to be weak [36]. - Casting aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, with strong support from scrap aluminum prices on the supply side and decent short - term demand [36]. Zinc - Zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and processing fees are expected to increase this month. Mine supply is abundant, and inventories have been accumulating. Demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to remain range - bound [65]. - The latest prices and changes of zinc futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [66][71][74]. Nickel - The August first - phase nickel product benchmark price in Indonesia has been released. Nickel ore prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation [80]. - Nickel iron prices have been slowly declining in the past two weeks, with some support from the supply side due to the expected increase in steel mill production in August [80]. - Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the stability of the current price level needs further verification. Attention should be paid to whether demand can pick up in August [80]. Tin - Tin prices rose slightly on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues from Myanmar's production resumption are uncertain, and if the situation persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - The latest prices and changes of tin futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [97][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - Short - term supply - side disruptions exist, and production scheduling in August is expected to improve. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - The latest prices and changes of lithium carbonate futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [113][115][119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by macro - level sentiment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [121]. - The latest prices of industrial silicon spot products, futures prices, and related data such as basis and price differences are provided [122][124].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The sugar market is under pressure due to the expected increase in imported sugar arrivals and the global supply surplus. StoneX predicts a 304 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. However, the low domestic industrial inventory provides some support, but the price advantage of processed sugar continues the weak trend [3]. - **Cotton**: The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts. The expectation of tight supply and demand at the end of the domestic cotton year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may enter a volatile pattern [13]. - **Jujube**: Due to the rapid weather changes in the production areas, there are still differences in the market's view of the new - season jujube production. Jujube prices may fluctuate in the short term. With sufficient supply of old jujubes, jujube prices will face pressure if there are no major problems with the weather in the production areas [19]. - **Apple**: Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, the number of apple packages is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of Qinyang apples are the same as last year, but the prices have recently declined to varying degrees [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Spot Price**: The spot price in Kunming dropped by 20 yuan to 5,800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: On August 6, 2025, SR01 closed at 5,628 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.18% and a weekly decline of 0.67%. Other contracts also showed different degrees of decline [4]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different sugar futures contracts showed various changes. For example, SR01 - 05 was 64 yuan, up 2 yuan from the previous day and 3 yuan from the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of Nanning - SR01 was 392 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous day but up 73 yuan from the previous week. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 227 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous day and up 43 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Import Prices**: The quota - within import price of Brazilian sugar was 4,433 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day but down 61 yuan from the previous week. The quota - above import price was 5,630 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and down 80 yuan from the previous week [11]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On August 6, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13,850 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a 0.22% increase; cotton 05 closed at 13,805 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a 0.22% increase; cotton 09 closed at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan with a 0.26% increase [14]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 45 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the cotton 05 - 09 spread was 120 yuan, up 35 yuan from the previous day [15]. - **Basis**: The cotton basis was 1,514 yuan, up 36 yuan from the previous day [15]. Jujube - Market trend: The jujube price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the growth of grey jujubes. With sufficient supply of old jujubes, prices will face pressure if there are no major weather problems in the production areas [19]. Apple - **Futures Prices**: On August 6, 2025, AP01 closed at 7,854 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day and 0.50% from the previous week [24]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [24]. - **Price Spreads**: The AP01 - 05 spread was - 65 yuan, down 30.85% from the previous day and up 20.37% from the previous week [24].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from production growth, oscillating around the annual line of 4,250 ringgit. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 4,250 ringgit for upward movement; otherwise, it may fall below the annual - line support and decline to 4,000 ringgit [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in high - level consolidation, influenced by the adjustment of Malaysian palm oil. They are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 9,000 yuan, as well as the gains and losses near the 20 - day moving average and whether Malaysian palm oil can stand above 4,250 ringgit [3]. Soybean Oil - Factory sales have improved recently as some market participants are bullish. Although the factory's soybean oil inventory is still increasing, terminal demand is expected to improve due to the start of universities and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, so the inventory may decrease in the second half of the month. Soybean oil has a price advantage over palm oil and rapeseed oil, which supports the basis quote, and the basis quote is bullish in the long - term [4]. Bean Meal - Argentina's bean meal purchases have limited impact on the market. Due to the tight supply expected in the fourth quarter, oil mills are accelerating South American purchases, pushing up the premiums in Brazil and Argentina. The price of the Lianbo 09 contract will end in oscillation, while the upward momentum of the Lianbo 01 contract is stable, with attention on the resistance at 3,100 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton in the short term [15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - P 1 - 5 is 212 yuan/ton, up 18; Y - P 01 is - 724 yuan/ton, down 106; other spreads are also presented in the table [5]. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm oil 01 is 8,986 yuan/ton, down 0.64%; BMD palm oil main contract is 4,249 ringgit/ton, down 0.96%; other prices and spreads are also provided [6]. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean oil 01 is 8,380 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 53.38 cents/pound, down 1.18%; other prices and spreads are also given [11]. Oilseeds Futures Prices - Bean meal 01 closes at 3,072, up 7 (0.23%); bean meal 05 closes at 2,762, up 11 (0.4%); other futures prices are also listed [16]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05 is 310, down 4; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 9; other spreads are also presented [17].

Core View - Propane dehydrogenation unit operating rate increased to 73.13% (weekly increase of 1.35%), and the support for chemical demand marginally strengthened [2] - Saudi CP prices were lowered (propane at $575/ton, butane at $545/ton), reducing the import cost at the port of arrival and partially alleviating domestic price pressure [2] - Domestic refinery operating rate was at a high level, with the commercial volume maintained above 520,000 tons and port inventory exceeding 3 million tons [2] - Consumption was sluggish during the off - season, and the sales - to - production ratios in East China and South China dropped to 99% and 93% respectively (weekly decrease of 1% - 7%) [2] - Despite the marginal improvement in chemical demand, supply pressure and the off - season for combustion dominated the market. Coupled with high port inventory, the price rebound space was limited [3] Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the daily settlement price of propane's Far - East Inbound Price FEI: M1, the seasonal comparison between FEI and Brent, PDH profit/operating rate, FEI/MOPJ spread seasonality, propane's US FOB price, MB and WTI ratio seasonality, VLGC freight, US propane weekly production, import volume, inventory, and export volume [4][5][7]

Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower due to inventory growth concerns, with short - term pressure to break below 4,200 ringgit and potentially test 4,000 ringgit support. After a brief shock or digestion of the MPOB report, it may continue to decline, possibly briefly breaking below 4,000 ringgit [3]. - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure at high levels and may test the 8,800 - yuan support. If it breaks below, it may continue to decline and could potentially fall to around 8,500 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - Due to high soybean arrivals, factory operating rates are above 60%, leading to increased soybean oil production and inventory in most regions. However, historical data suggests inventory will soon reach a peak and then decline as demand increases, causing spot basis quotes to rise after narrow - range fluctuations [4]. Bean Meal - The stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations persists. China's fourth - quarter soybean purchases are locked in South America, with high Brazilian and rising Argentine premiums supporting costs. The short - term continuous bean meal 09 contract will test the 3,040 - 3,050 yuan resistance. Spot prices are rising, and the basis is narrowing. As of the end of Week 31, 2025, domestic bean meal inventory decreased to 1.053 million tons, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [17]. Group 2: Oil Price and Spread Information Oil Price - Palm oil: The 01 contract is at 8,832 yuan/ton (-1.1%), the 05 contract is at 8,638 yuan/ton (-1.21%), the 09 contract is at 8,838 yuan/ton (-0.81%), and BMD palm oil is at 4,172 ringgit/ton (-1.72%) [7]. - Soybean oil: The 01 contract is at 8,214 yuan/ton (0.59%), the 05 contract is at 7,848 yuan/ton (0.29%), the 09 contract is at 8,250 yuan/ton (0.47%), and CBOT soybean oil is at 53.9 cents/pound (-1.55%) [13]. Spread - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 186 yuan/ton (+4), P 5 - 9 is - 166 yuan/ton (-2), P 9 - 1 is - 20 yuan/ton (-2) [5]. - Soybean oil - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 704 yuan/ton (+56), Y - P 05 is - 896 yuan/ton (+32), Y - P 09 is - 636 yuan/ton (+72) [5]. Group 3: Oilseed Futures Price and Spread Information Futures Price - Bean meal: The 01 contract is at 3,055 (+18, 0.59%), the 05 contract is at 2,746 (+8, 0.29%), the 09 contract is at 3,024 (+14, 0.47%) [18]. - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract is at 2,432 (+23, 0.95%), the 05 contract is at 2,380 (+5, 0.21%), the 09 contract is at 2,678 (+3, 0.11%) [18]. Spread - Bean meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 299 (unchanged), M05 - 09 is - 272 (unchanged), M09 - 01 is - 27 (unchanged) [19][21]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 is 34 (unchanged), RM05 - 09 is - 300 (unchanged), RM09 - 01 is 266 (unchanged) [19][21].

Group 1: Sugar Core View - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose due to a 15.07% year-on-year increase in Brazil's sugar production to 340,600 tons in the first half of July and an 18% expected increase in India's new season production to 34.9 million tons. In the domestic market, the Nanning spot price has a premium, but import pressure persists, and the peak consumption season provides limited support [3]. Specific Data - Sugar futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: SR01 at 5636 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly decrease of 1.16%; SR03 at 5609 with a daily increase of 0.25% and a weekly decrease of 1.06%; SR05 at 5574 with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.17%; SR07 at 5571 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.1%; SR09 at 5718 with a daily decrease of 0.26% and a weekly decrease of 2.17%; SR11 at 5657 with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.63%; SB at 16.2 with a daily decrease of 0.92% and a weekly decrease of 1.40%; W at 465 with a daily decrease of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.96% [4]. - Sugar basis data on August 1, 2025: Nanning - SR01 with a basis of 410, a daily increase of 35, and a weekly increase of 66; Nanning - SR03 with a basis of 435, a daily increase of 35, and a weekly increase of 57; Nanning - SR05 with a basis of 460, a daily increase of 41, and a weekly increase of 53; Nanning - SR07 with a basis of 459, a daily increase of 38, and a weekly increase of 42; Nanning - SR09 with a basis of 297, a daily increase of 60, and a weekly increase of 123; Nanning - SR11 with a basis of 377, a daily increase of 32, and a weekly increase of 99 [9]. - Sugar import price data on August 4, 2025: Brazilian import quota - within price at 4466 with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 46; out - of - quota price at 5673 with a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 61; Thai import quota - within price at 4542 with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 22; out - of - quota price at 5772 with a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 28 [12]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts. However, the expectation of tight domestic cotton supply at the end of the year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton in the off - season, and the adjustment of the Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Specific Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: Cotton 01 at 13805 with an increase of 20 (0.15%); Cotton 05 at 13760 with an increase of 30 (0.22%); Cotton 09 at 13675 with an increase of 90 (0.66%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19705 with an increase of 25 (0.13%); Cotton yarn 05 at 0 with a decrease of 19960 (- 100%); Cotton yarn 09 at 19825 with an increase of 85 (0.43%) [15]. - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: Cotton basis at 1675 with no change; Cotton 01 - 05 at 55 with no change; Cotton 05 - 09 at 145 with no change; Cotton 09 - 01 at - 200 with no change; Cotton - yarn spread at 6145 with no change; Domestic - foreign cotton spread at 1709 with a decrease of 35; Domestic - foreign yarn spread at - 536 with an increase of 14 [16]. Group 3: Red Dates Core View - Recently, the weather in the production areas has changed rapidly, and there are still differences in the market's view of the new - season production. Red date prices may fluctuate temporarily. Attention should be paid to the growth of grey dates. With sufficient supply of old dates and no major problems in the future weather in the production areas, red date prices will still face pressure [20]. Group 4: Apples Core View - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. In Shandong, the number of packaged apples is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are almost cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of Qinyang apples are the same as last year, but the prices have recently declined to varying degrees [24]. Specific Data - Apple futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: AP01 at 7744 with a daily increase of 0.77% and a weekly decrease of 1.91%; AP03 at 7725 with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly decrease of 1.1%; AP04 at 7779 with a daily increase of 0.93% and a weekly decrease of 1.03%; AP05 at 7838 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a weekly decrease of 0.87%; AP10 at 7826 with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 2.81%; AP11 at 7642 with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 1.90%; AP12 at 7704 with a daily increase of 0.8% and a weekly decrease of 1.42% [25]. - Apple spot prices on August 4, 2025: Qixia first - and second - grade 80 at 3.8 with no daily or weekly change; Luochuan semi - commercial 70 at 4.5 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6%; Jingning paper - bagged 75 at 5.6 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6.67%; Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 at 2.3 with no daily or weekly change; Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 at 2.8 with no daily or weekly change [25].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The maintenance support and export containerization offset the off - season of agricultural demand. However, policy uncertainty and high inventory suppress the price rebound, and the price will continue to be weakly sorted [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental and Views - **Supply**: In August, the planned maintenance increases, and the production is expected to drop to 5.8 million tons, and the supply pressure will ease month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory and Export**: The port inventory exceeds 500,000 tons, and the export quota promotes continuous containerization, providing support for demand [4]. - **Agricultural Demand**: The use of corn fertilizer is ending, the preparation for wheat fertilizer has not started. Although the start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased, the inventory preparation is cautious [4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The rumor of restrictions on small - package exports has spread, and traders resist high prices. The spot price has dropped by 0.9% this week [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: Multiple inventory data charts are provided, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi urea inventory, etc., showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][9]. - **Futures Market**: Charts of futures main - contract positions, trading volume, warehouse receipt quantity, and effective warehouse receipt forecasts are presented, showing the trends from 2021 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - **Price**: Various price - related charts are included, such as the daily market price of small - particle urea in Henan and Shandong, the price difference between large and small particles, and the seasonal price differences between different contract months [17][19][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts of production costs and profits of different urea production methods (fixed - bed, natural - gas, water - coal - slurry gasification) are provided, as well as the production profit of compound fertilizers in Shandong [28][30][41]. - **Production - related Data**: Data on production - related indicators such as the number of days of pending orders of urea production enterprises, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, and compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate are presented [33][35][39]. - **External Market and Raw Materials**: Charts of FOB prices in the Middle East and China, and the spot price and port inventory of thermal coal are provided [43][44][48].