1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There are limited expectations for monetary policy easing, and the flattening of the yield curve supports long - term interest rates [2] - The overall capital situation is stable, and bond supply does not exert significant pressure on the market [2] - Last week, Treasury bond futures contracts across all tenors generally closed lower, with long - term varieties like 30 - year Treasury bond futures experiencing larger declines, reflecting market concerns about long - term interest rates [2] - It is recommended to pay attention to the issuance of interest - rate bonds and central bank operation signals, conduct band - trading, and control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Yields - The data shows the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [3] 3.2 Funding Rates - The trends of the weighted average rate of pledged repo by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repo rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are presented [3] 3.3 Treasury Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [4][5] 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are presented [7] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Trading Volume - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [8] 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Basis of Current - Quarter Contracts - The basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures current - quarter contracts are presented from different time periods [9][10][11][12] 3.7 Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Delivery Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are shown from different time periods [13][15][16] 3.8 Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/08 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Tight supply and demand of intermediate product MHP, strong new energy demand support nickel prices; spot trading is fair, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has widened, and the market's purchasing sentiment is stable [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Stainless steel is in the off - season of demand, nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and terminal procurement is cautious; domestic social inventory has increased significantly week - on - week, and supply pressure is significant [3]. - **Trading Consultation Viewpoint**: In the short term, the bearish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and the downward price space is supported by costs. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,380 yuan/ton, down 1,370 yuan (-1.17%) week - on - week; SHFE nickel continuous - one is 115,380 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan (-1.45%); SHFE nickel continuous - two is 115,580 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan (-1.45%); SHFE nickel continuous - three is 115,940 yuan/ton, down 1,570 yuan (-1.45%); LME nickel 3M is 14,455 dollars/ton, down 425 dollars (-1.34%) [4]. - **Nickel Futures Positions and Volume**: The position volume is 152,848 lots, an increase of 45,507 lots (42.4%); the trading volume is 124,692 lots, an increase of 21,777 lots (21.16%); the warrant number is 34,079 tons, a decrease of 948 tons (-2.71%); the basis of the main contract is 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 270 yuan (69.23%) [4]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The latest value of stainless steel main contract is 12,285 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan (-1%); stainless steel continuous - one is 12,285 yuan/ton, unchanged; stainless steel continuous - two is 12,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (-0.24%); stainless steel continuous - three is 12,415 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (-0.48%) [5]. - **Stainless Steel Futures Positions and Volume**: The trading volume is 119,724 lots, a decrease of 17,389 lots (-12.68%); the position volume is 192,398 lots, an increase of 19,670 lots (11.39%); the warrant number is 65,340 tons, a decrease of 5,025 tons (-7.14%); the basis of the main contract is 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan (-0.72%) [5]. - **Nickel Spot Prices**: Jinchuan nickel is 120,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan (0.50%); imported nickel is 116,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan (0.52%); 1 electrolytic nickel is 118,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan (0.51%); nickel beans are 118,550 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan (0.51%); electrowon nickel is 116,350 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan (0.56%) [5]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social inventory is 53,114 tons, an increase of 3,981 tons; LME nickel inventory is 254,172 tons, a decrease of 1,674 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 940 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 30,225 tons, an increase of 661 tons [7]. Charts and Data Sources - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Price Trends**: The report provides the closing price trends of SHFE nickel futures main contract, LME nickel (3 - month) electronic disk, and stainless steel futures main contract, with data sources from Wind [8][10]. - **Nickel Spot Average Price**: The report shows the average price trends of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, with data source from Wind [12]. - **Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory**: It includes China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality, China's primary nickel monthly total supply (including imports) seasonality, domestic social inventory (nickel plate + nickel beans) seasonality, and LME nickel inventory seasonality, with data sources from Wind [14][15]. - **Upstream Nickel Ore**: It presents the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality, China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average), and Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price, with data sources from Wind [17][18]. - **Nickel Pig Iron Production**: It shows China's nickel iron monthly production seasonality and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality, with data sources from Wind [19][20]. - **Downstream Nickel Sulfate**: It includes the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, battery - grade nickel sulfate premium, nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit margin seasonality, China's externally - sourced nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonality, China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons), and ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality, with data sources from Wind [22][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: It shows China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin seasonality, stainless steel monthly production seasonality, and stainless steel inventory seasonality, with data sources from Wind [28][30][31].

Core View - Bullish factors: Supply shortage due to reduced production in northern mines supports zinc prices, and increased downstream demand is driven by smelters' active procurement of domestic ore and lower processing fees [3] - Bearish factors: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suppress rate - cut expectations, leading to a collective correction in metals, and an increase of about 2000 tons in LME zinc inventory last week restricts the upside potential of prices [3] - Trading advice: Short - term focus on the support of tight mine supply for zinc prices, no future strategy provided [3] Processing and Terminal Demand - Data presented on galvanized coil market sentiment index, inventory, production, net exports, die - cast zinc alloy net imports, color - coated sheet net exports, zinc oxide net exports, real estate development investment and progress, sales and unsold area, land transaction area, and commercial housing transaction volume [4][7][10][12][14] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on zinc concentrate monthly import volume, TC, zinc ingot monthly production, production profit and processing fees, raw material inventory days, and various zinc inventories including LME, SHFE, and exchange inventories are provided [18][20][21][23][24] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and zinc ingot basis in different regions is presented [26][27][28][30][35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar is near a five - year low due to global supply surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is weak and at a new low, influenced by increased Brazilian cane planting area, high Indian production expectations, and rising Chinese imports [3]. - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton supply pressure is increasing, with hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800. Demand is average, so short - term cotton prices may fluctuate weakly, but downstream demand has resilience and awaits macro - economic improvement [17]. - **Apples**: New - season late Fuji ground trading is ending, mainly in Shandong and Shanxi. Warehousing is in the later stage. Some areas in Shandong are not fully harvested, with many buyers. Small fruits are selling well recently [21]. - **Red Dates**: New - season red dates are about to enter the centralized harvesting stage. South Xinjiang has a yield reduction, but the extent is uncertain. Short - term price fluctuations are large due to capital games, and the downside may be limited with the start of the acquisition season [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 21, 2025, SR01 closed at 5353 yuan/ton, down 0.24% daily and 2.14% weekly. Other contracts also showed declines. The ICE raw sugar price was at 14.68 cents/pound, up 0.14% daily but down 1.14% weekly [4]. - **Base Spreads**: For example, the Nanning - SR01 base spread was 394 yuan/ton on November 20, up 15 yuan daily and 146 yuan weekly [12]. - **Import Prices and Profits**: Brazilian and Thai sugar import prices changed, with corresponding differences in domestic prices and potential profits [15]. Cotton - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Cotton 01 closed at 13,460 yuan/ton on November 21, down 5 yuan and 0.04%. Cotton - related spreads such as cotton 01 - 05 were - 10 yuan, down 5 yuan [18]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On November 21, 2025, AP01 closed at 9440 yuan/ton, down 0.59% daily and 1.36% weekly. Spot prices of different apple grades remained stable [22]. - **Spreads and Other Indicators**: AP01 - 05 was 71 yuan/ton, down 10.13% daily but up 14.52% weekly [23]. Red Dates - **Futures Spreads and Related Data**: Red date futures spreads like 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 showed different trends over time, and the total of red date warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was also presented [30][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, due to the unclear prospect of a December interest rate cut, the prices will likely continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range [3]. - **Copper**: The intraday procurement and sales sentiment has increased, and the spot price has risen while the premium has weakened. The copper price faces pressure at 86,500 - 86,600. Given the weak impact of the unemployment data on the December interest rate cut expectation and the dollar index remaining above 100, the copper price will likely fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum will maintain a moderately strong long - term trend. In the short - term, weak fundamentals and a lower probability of a December interest rate cut have led to profit - taking by previous funds. It will likely consolidate with an overall higher price center. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental restrictions and short - covering, but it is still in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics to Shanghai aluminum and strong downside support [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of an interest rate cut has cooled. In terms of fundamentals, the smelting end is competing for ore, resulting in a significant decline in November TC. The smelting end's willingness to reduce or halt production has increased in November. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Currently, there are large differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [59]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has continued to decline, breaking below 900 and still falling due to weak downstream demand. Under the situation of a significant collapse in costs, the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel spot has high shipment pressure, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. Attention should be paid to the demand trend and Indonesian policy support expectations [75]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, there is some resumption of production in Yunnan, but due to the lower - than - expected resumption of production in Wa State, the import of concentrate has sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. In the short - term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: This week, lithium carbonate production and inventory showed the characteristic of "increasing production and reducing inventory", but the inventory reduction process has significantly slowed down. High prices have weakened downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, suppressing price increases. Technically, the futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward momentum and significant callback risks [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, considering supply - demand and technical factors, the price has strong downside support and limited downward space. For polysilicon, policy - driven short - term stimulation coexists with a weak fundamental situation, and the price increase is limited due to insufficient demand support [115]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Medium - to long - term upward trend; short - term fluctuation and adjustment with possible range narrowing [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, including price trends, spreads, and relationships with other factors such as the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9][12]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Likely to fluctuate around 86,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai copper main contract is at 85,660 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.55% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is at 85,815 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.72% [23]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are given. The current copper import profit and loss is - 488.26 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 82.21% [28]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are provided. The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 49,790 tons, with a daily decline of 9.44% [33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term with a higher price center; alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract is at 21,340 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.88% [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic aluminum spot prices, premiums, and spreads are presented. For example, the East China aluminum price is at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 9.09% [46]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts are 69,283 tons, with a daily decline of 0.18% [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Uncertainty exists due to cooling interest rate cut expectations and supply - side issues. Observe export and macro factors and the bottom space at the end of the month [59]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai zinc main contract is at 22,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.07% [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the SMM 0 zinc average price is at 22,440 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04% [68]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 72,897 tons, with a daily decline of 1.05% [72]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Outlook**: Ferronickel prices are falling, and the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel has high shipment pressure [75]. - **Futures and Related Data**: The latest prices, changes, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt data of Shanghai and London nickel and stainless steel futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract is at 114,050 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1% [76]. - **Downstream Data**: Data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented, such as the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) and the profit margin of China's integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [80][83]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai tin main contract is at 290,740 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.44% [89]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot prices are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot is at 291,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07% [93]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London tin warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai tin warehouse receipts are 5,906 tons, with a daily decline of 1.42% [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: The "increasing production and reducing inventory" process has slowed down. High prices have suppressed downstream replenishment willingness. The futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward space [104]. - **Futures Data**: The latest closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided, along with data on spreads between different contracts [105][107]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot prices are presented, such as the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price at 92,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1% [109]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate exchange inventory, including warehouse receipts, social inventory, smelter inventory, and downstream inventory, are provided [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon has strong downside support and limited downward space. Polysilicon has limited upside space due to weak fundamentals [115]. - **Industrial Silicon Spot Data**: The latest prices of various industrial silicon products in different regions and their basis data are provided. For example, the East China 553 industrial silicon is at 9,550 yuan/ton [116]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. For example, the industrial silicon main contract is at 8,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.27% [117]. - **Polysilicon and Related Product Data**: Price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products, as well as inventory and production data of the industry chain, are presented [125][136].

Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures declined under fundamental bearish pressure. SPPOMA data showed a production increase of over 10% from the 1st to the 20th. With concerns about weak exports, palm oil prices dropped significantly, breaking below the 4,100 ringgit support. There is short - term downward pressure towards 4,000 ringgit, with a chance of a brief rebound. If the production growth issue persists, prices may fall to the 3,950 - 3,960 range [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures were weak. Affected by the decline in Malaysian palm oil, prices broke below 8,600 yuan and hit a new low. They are expected to test the 8,500 - yuan support. There is a risk of falling to 8,200 yuan if Malaysian palm oil briefly breaks below 4,000 ringgit, which is also supported by the 250 - week moving average [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil futures declined due to international market trends, including a possible delay in the US reducing biofuel import subsidies, weak Malaysian export data, and optimistic prospects for Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Domestic demand is poor, and supply is sufficient, pressuring the futures market. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil fell to 8,170 yuan, close to the 8,150 - yuan semi - annual moving average. There is a chance of testing this support level [4]. Bean Meal - Dalian bean meal futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. Hedging pressure and weak US soybean prices limited upward movement, while cost support restricted downward space. The short - term range is expected to be between 2,980 - 3,030 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range from 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton [14]. Group 2: Price Data Oil Price Data - Palm oil: Palm oil 01 was at 8,550 yuan/ton (-1.11%), palm oil 05 at 8,668 yuan/ton (-1.19%), palm oil 09 at 8,532 yuan/ton (-1.14%), BMD palm oil at 4,149 ringgit/ton (-0.14%), Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil at 8,600 yuan/ton (-70), and its basis at 24 yuan/ton (+96) [6]. - Soybean oil: Soybean oil 01 was at 8,190 yuan/ton (-0.17%), soybean oil 05 at 7,982 yuan/ton (-0.28%), soybean oil 09 at 7,926 yuan/ton (-0.38%), CBOT soybean oil at 51.07 cents/pound (-0.74%), Shandong first - grade soybean oil at 8,330 yuan/ton (-100), and its basis at 206 yuan/ton (-268) [10]. Oilseed Price Data - Bean meal: Bean meal 01 was at 3,012 (-0.17%), bean meal 05 at 2,803 (-0.28%), bean meal 09 at 2,915 (-0.38%), and CBOT soybeans at 1,123 (0%) [15]. - Rapeseed meal: Rapeseed meal 01 was at 2,431 (+0.79%), rapeseed meal 05 at 2,367 (-0.42%), and rapeseed meal 09 at 2,435 (-0.37%) [15]. Spread Data - Oil spreads: P 1 - 5 was -126 yuan/ton (-36), P 5 - 9 was 142 yuan/ton (-8), P 9 - 1 was -16 yuan/ton (+44), Y - P 01 was -422 yuan/ton (+74), etc. [5]. - Oilseed spreads: M01 - 05 was 209 (+3), RM01 - 05 was 64 (+29), M05 - 09 was -112 (+3), etc. [16][19]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Feed and Aquaculture Daily Report - Research Areas: Pig, Corn and Starch, Egg Pig Market Core View - Policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of pigs. Strategically, a long - term bullish view can be taken, but in the short - to medium - term, fundamentals prevail. Recently, the second - fattening replenishment has weakened, and the near - term slaughter pressure persists, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a stronger trend [3] Price Information - **Spot Prices**: The national average spot price of pigs is 11.54 yuan, up 0.07 yuan (0.61%). Prices in different regions such as Henan, Hunan, etc., also show varying degrees of increase [4] - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different pig futures contracts show mixed trends. For example, the price of the Pig 01 contract is 11,560 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.22%), while the Pig 03 contract is 11,350 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%) [5] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of different pig futures contracts and between regions and contracts show significant fluctuations. For example, the LH01 - 03 spread is 180 yuan, down 45 yuan (- 20%) [10] Corn and Starch Market Core View - The spot market of corn was generally stable, with individual enterprises raising prices. After the recent continuous rebound of corn prices, the supply - side's reluctance to sell has eased, and the arrival volume in Shandong has increased. The downstream's willingness to purchase at high prices has decreased, and the price has entered a short - term balance. The futures market showed a slight correction. The starch market was stable, and the futures market followed the decline of corn and fell more than corn [14] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different corn and corn starch futures contracts all showed increases. For example, the price of the Corn 01 contract is 2,175 yuan, up 7 yuan (0.32%), and the Corn Starch 01 contract is 2,480 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.53%) [15] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different ports and the basis of corn and corn starch in different regions also showed certain changes. For example, the price of corn in Shekou Port is 2,370 yuan, up 10 yuan, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 62 yuan, up 14 yuan [19] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of corn and corn starch showed different trends. For example, the Corn 1 - 5 month - to - month spread is - 73 yuan, down 12 yuan [22] - **US Corn**: The prices of CBOT corn, soybeans, and wheat showed slight fluctuations. The US Gulf and West Coast's duty - paid prices decreased, and there were corresponding import profits [27] Egg Market Core View - In the long - term, the egg - laying hen production capacity is still in excess, and there is significant price pressure. In the short - term, due to the rapid decline of egg prices after the festival, some farmers have culled or molted hens. Overall, the production capacity is at a high level but is approaching an inflection point, and the general trend is still weak [30] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different egg futures contracts showed mixed trends. The Egg 01 contract is 3,180 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.16%), and the Egg 09 contract is 3,872 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.34%) [31] - **Spot Prices**: The prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas, as well as different types of eggs, all showed declines. For example, the price of eggs in the main production areas is 2.86 yuan, down 0.02 yuan (- 0.69%) [32] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of different egg futures contracts and between the main production areas and the main contract showed significant fluctuations. For example, the Egg 1 - 5 spread is - 288 yuan, down 18 yuan (6.67%) [42]

油脂油料产业日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overall, finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end, but their upward drive is suppressed by inventory and demand. They are expected to trade in a range, with rebar likely between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in steel enterprise profitability [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with total inventory continuously increasing, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. The port inventory is accumulating above the seasonal level, but the inventory of deliverable brand coarse powder is decreasing, supporting the basis to strengthen. The coking coal price decline provides a seesaw support for the ore price, but the subsequent recovery of coking coal valuation may squeeze the iron ore [21]. - In the short term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as the high spot price increase, weak downstream acceptance, and seasonal weakening of demand. In the long - term, the supply elasticity of coking coal will be restricted by policies, and the winter storage demand is expected to limit the downward space of coking coal prices [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the downward space is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [44]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, its valuation has limited upward elasticity. The medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventory is high, restricting the price, but there is cost support at the lower end [53]. - The glass market has weak production and sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream brings significant spot pressure. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [77]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3070, 3116, and 3162 respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3277, 3281, and 3298 respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices and basis also had corresponding values [4][8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore were all 4, and those to coke were all 2 on November 19, 2025 [18]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 791.5, 755, and 730 respectively. The basis of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 3, 31.5, and 55 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao also had corresponding values [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 236.88, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 326.95, and the global shipping volume was 3516.4. The 45 - port inventory was 15129.71 [25]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse - receipt costs and basis had corresponding values. The coking profit on the disk was - 72 [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions had corresponding values, and the import and export profits also had corresponding values [35][36]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron Data**: On November 19, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron in different regions had corresponding values, and the number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 8396 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese Data**: On November 19, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions had corresponding values, and the number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 19744 [46]. Soda Ash - **Price/Month - Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts of soda ash were 1182, 1257, and 1325 respectively. The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding values [53]. - **Spot Price/Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the heavy - alkali and light - alkali market prices in different regions had corresponding values, and the heavy - alkali minus light - alkali spreads also had corresponding values [56]. Glass - **Price/Month - Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts of glass were 1009, 1139, and 1225 respectively. The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding values [78]. - **Production and Sales Data**: From November 11 - 17, 2025, the production and sales of glass in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China had corresponding values [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the precious metals market, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, short - term macro uncertainties about December interest rate cuts may lead to continued volatile adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average [3]. - In the copper market, concerns about non - farm data affecting interest rate cuts have led to capital reduction and price drops. Inventory increases and narrowing premiums reflect fundamental pressures, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - In the aluminum market, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a long - term oscillatory upward trend, but short - term weak fundamentals and a lower probability of December interest rate cuts may lead to profit - taking by previous funds, resulting in subsequent oscillatory consolidation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the expiration of a large number of warehouse receipts will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand [36]. - In the zinc market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a significant drop in November TC due to intense competition for ore in the smelting sector have increased the willingness of smelters to reduce or halt production in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - In the nickel and stainless - steel market, nickel - iron prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand. The downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure, and downstream demand remains weak [75]. - In the tin market, due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with support around 276,000 yuan [88]. - In the lithium carbonate market, strong demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, combined with a slowdown in supply growth, may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - In the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range, weak oscillations [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, due to unclear prospects of December interest rate cuts, precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the long term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold long - term fund holdings, and SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Market concerns about non - farm data and inventory increases have led to price drops, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - **Price Data**: Spot prices from various sources (Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaoyi, etc.) have small daily increases. Futures prices of Shanghai copper and London copper show different trends, with Shanghai copper rising and London copper falling [22][23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories show different changes, with some warehouse receipts decreasing and LME copper inventories increasing [32][34]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [36]. - **Price Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [38][45]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventories show different changes, and alumina warehouse receipts increase slightly [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Cooling interest rate cut expectations and a drop in November TC have increased the willingness of smelters to cut production. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices show different trends, with Shanghai zinc rising and LME zinc falling slightly [60]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decrease, and LME zinc inventories increase [72]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Outlook**: Nickel - iron prices decline due to weak downstream demand, and the downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure [75]. - **Price Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Nickel warehouse receipts decrease [76]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [88]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai tin and London tin futures prices show different trends, with Shanghai tin rising and London tin falling slightly [89]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decrease, and LME tin inventories remain unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Strong demand and slow supply growth may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - **Price Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices show an upward trend [105][109]. - **Inventory Data**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increase slightly, and social and downstream inventories decrease [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook [116]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related product prices show different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [116]. - **Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon social inventory and polysilicon total inventory show different trends [134][143].