交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】 1515号 能化产品周报—烧碱 2025年6月5日 研究员： 屠越海 执业编号:Z0019382 审核：唐韵Z0002422 基本面要点： 价格：6月4日，烧碱主力合约（SH2509）收盘报 2367元 / 吨，较前一交易日下跌1.95%。山东地区32%离子膜碱：市场主流成交价格为840-925 元/吨。50%离子膜碱：主流成交价格为1350-1410元/吨。下游大型氧化铝工厂32%液碱采购价：840元/吨。32%液碱：市场主流成交价格为 930-1020元/吨。48%液碱：市场主流成交价格为1480-1570元/吨。 供给： 本周国内 20 万吨及以上烧碱装置产能利用率为 84.1%，较此前一周环比上升 1.6 个百分点 。 http://www.eafutures.com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Economic data weakness strengthens short - term hedging demand, Fed policy delays and debt risks provide medium - term support, and central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization set the long - term tone. Attention should be paid to the June FOMC meeting guidance, US debt ceiling progress, and geopolitical situation evolution [3]. - **Copper**: In the next 1 - 2 weeks with little change in macro and fundamentals, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. The tariff policy negotiation between Europe and the US mainly impacts the stock market. Supply is stable, and demand depends on the impact of the tariff exemption period in mid - to late June. Copper prices are unlikely to fall significantly without a halt in the decline of LME inventory. There is no clear signal for funds to enter the market [14]. - **Zinc**: Fundamentally, supply will be loose in the second half of the year, but inventory is at a low level. The zinc ingot import window is temporarily closed. The increase in zinc concentrate imports is significant. Short - term zinc prices are expected to be weakly volatile with a slowly declining center of gravity, and the short - selling logic depends on zinc ingot inventory accumulation [34]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and continuous inventory reduction is the short - term support for aluminum prices. For alumina, the Axis mine in Guinea is likely to remain shut down in the short term, and the market is concerned about future supply surplus. Alumina prices are under pressure as inventory reduction is approaching the end and price increases in some areas are slowing [45]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore segment has support as the further decline space is limited. Nickel iron prices are slightly回调, stainless steel demand is weak, and some Indonesian producers have cut production. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are stabilizing, and nickel prices fluctuate with the non - ferrous sector. Attention should be paid to spot trading [67]. - **Tin**: The recent low - level hovering of tin prices is related to the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. The actual production may not resume until July - August, and tin prices have rebounded due to the shrinkage of actual production compared to expectations [82]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are weak, but as prices fall, there is a higher probability of supply - side disturbances and short - covering. The futures market may fluctuate sharply [93]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry is in the process of eliminating backward production capacity. Supply pressure increases as enterprise复产 expectations are realized, and demand may be reduced. Polysilicon fundamentals are weak [101]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Spread**: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, and the price differences between SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot prices [4][5][7]. - **Relationship with Other Indicators**: Displayed the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index [9]. - **Fund Holdings and Inventory**: Presented the long - term fund holdings of gold and silver and the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [11][13]. Copper - **Futures Data**: Provided daily copper futures data including prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper [15]. - **Cash Data**: Gave daily copper spot data, including prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of different regions, as well as spot premium and discount data [20][22]. - **Import and Processing**: Included copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference data [25][29]. - **Inventory**: Showed the inventory data of SHFE and LME copper and the seasonal inventory of Chinese cathode copper [13][32][33]. Zinc - **Price Data**: Provided zinc futures and spot prices, price differences between contracts, and premium and discount data [35][39]. - **Inventory**: Presented the inventory data of SHFE and LME zinc and related seasonal inventory data [41][43][44]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Data**: Showed the futures and spot prices of aluminum and alumina, price differences between contracts, and premium and discount data [46][49][55]. - **Inventory**: Provided the inventory data of SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina and related seasonal inventory data [63][64][65]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Gave nickel futures prices, inventory, and spot average prices, as well as nickel ore prices and inventory data [68][72][74]. - **Downstream Profit**: Presented the profit data of downstream nickel products such as stainless steel and nickel sulfate [76][78]. Tin - **Futures and Spot Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, premium and discount data, and inventory data [83][87][89]. - **Related Index**: Showed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) [88]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot Data**: Gave lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, price differences between contracts, and inventory data [93][96][99]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot and Futures Data**: Provided industrial silicon spot and futures prices, price differences between contracts, and basis data [101]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Showed the prices of downstream products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [105][106][107]. - **Production and Inventory**: Presented production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon [113][116][119].

3、印度迎来最早季风雨，比往年提前两周左右，为1950年以来最早季风雨。但最近季风停滞不前，预计未来一周多时间维持较低降雨，预计6月11日以后降 雨恢复。 4、Unica数据显示，5月上半月巴西中南部甘蔗压榨量下滑6.1%至4231.9万吨，糖产量下滑6.8%至240.8万吨，制糖比51.14%高于去年同期的48.61%。 5、印度合作社全国糖厂联合会预估印度25/26榨季糖产量为3500万吨。 软商品日报 2025/06/05 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、 结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发 出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 ...

1. Report Core Views 1.1 Oil Core Views - Palm oil: The estimated production in the producing areas is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin quotation weakens, subsequent ship purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, since the current soybean-palm oil price spread is still inverted, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the soybean-palm oil price spread [3]. - Soybean oil: On the supply side, as the purchased ships arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing is expected to increase accordingly. However, on the consumption side, since there is no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter a stocking cycle. In the future, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share in the consumption market [3]. - Rapeseed oil: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations, the premium of the market on policy - expected trading has been hit. In the real supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has now arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a stage of peak. Subsequently, as the new supply is significantly limited, the expected marginal destocking speed will accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption, and the consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high - inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides a bottom - support for the far - month [3]. 1.2 Oilseed Core Views - Imported soybeans: In terms of ship purchases, the external market is weak, the Brazilian premium has been slightly repaired, the domestic market is relatively strong, and the far - month crushing profit has been repaired, but there is still no origin quotation for the fourth quarter. In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is still relatively abundant, but there is still a gap in ship purchases for the fourth quarter [15]. - Domestic soybean meal: The supply pressure in the second - quarter carry - over and the third quarter is relatively large, which will make the spot basis continue to be weak, while the futures market is relatively strong before the speculation of the weather market. Currently, the soybean supply of oil mills is gradually recovering, the raw material inventory is continuously rising, and the soybean meal inventory remains stable at the bottom due to more downstream pick - ups. However, the subsequent pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals will still suppress the soybean meal price in the third quarter. From the demand side, after the festival, the downstream continues to execute previous contracts, and the mood of buying as needed continues. Coupled with the limited entry of secondary fattening in the Northeast region, the stocking enthusiasm is not high, and the basis will continue to weaken [15]. - Rapeseed meal: There is still pressure on the spot supply. Without a significant increase in aquaculture production, it is difficult to reduce the inventory in the future. For the far - month supply, there is an expectation of relaxation in China - Canada relations, and the futures market shows weakness first. Subsequently, the focus should be on China - Canada trade relations [15]. 2. Oil Price Information 2.1 Oil Monthly and Inter - Variety Price Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 110 | - 24 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 154 | 26 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 44 | - 2 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 440 | 58 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 574 | 14 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 442 | 62 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 244 | 20 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 286 | - 22 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 42 | 2 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.5623 | - 0.21% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.7466 | - 0.46% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.6159 | - 0.19% | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 103 | - 57 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 245 | 77 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 142 | - 20 | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.8767 | - 1.57% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.8025 | - 0.92% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.5788 | - 1.3% | [4] 2.2 Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8082 | - 0.05% | | Palm oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7984 | 0.1% | | Palm oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8126 | - 0.05% | | BMD Palm oil main contract | ringgit/ton | 3925 | - 0.58% | | 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 8480 | - 40 | | 24 - degree basis in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 390 | - 64 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 405.233 | - 1.168 | | International soybean oil - palm oil | US dollars/ton | 14.94 | 0 | [7] 2.3 Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean oil 01 | yuan/ton | 7636 | 0.64% | | Soybean oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7404 | 0% | | Soybean oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7676 | 0.65% | | CBOT Soybean oil main contract | cents/pound | 46.81 | 1.25% | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot | yuan/ton | 7840 | 20 | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis | yuan/ton | 152 | 24 | | BOHO (weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 61.652 | - 8.2296 | | Domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil | yuan/ton | - 590 | 100 | [12] 3. Oilseed Price Information 3.1 Oilseed Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean meal 01 | 3003 | 19 | 0.64% | | Soybean meal 05 | 2695 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean meal 09 | 2958 | 19 | 0.65% | | Rapeseed meal 01 | 2313 | 2 | 0.09% | | Rapeseed meal 05 | 2329 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed meal 09 | 2567 | 24 | 0.94% | | CBOT Yellow soybeans | 1044.75 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1769 | - 0.0116 | - 0.16% | [16][18] 3.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 289 | 1 | RM01 - 05 | - 18 | 1 | | M05 - 09 | - 244 | - 1 | RM05 - 09 | - 214 | 11 | | M09 - 01 | - 45 | 0 | RM09 - 01 | 232 | - 12 | | Soybean meal spot in Rizhao | 2820 | - 20 | Soybean meal basis in Rizhao | - 119 | - 24 | | Rapeseed meal spot in Fujian | 2512 | - 11 | Rapeseed meal basis in Fujian | - 31 | 3 | | Soybean and rapeseed meal spot price spread | 308 | - 9 | Soybean and rapeseed meal futures price spread | 396 | 18 | [19]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: June 2, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Crude oil production increase expectations and macro bearish factors weaken cost support. Coupled with weak demand in the off - season and high inventory pressure, fuel oil maintains a pattern where it is easier to fall than to rise [5] Summary by Content Fundamental Information - Fujeirah fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.395 million barrels (a 12.7% decline) weekly, and the start of power generation demand in the Middle East alleviates regional supply pressure [4] - Middle - Eastern countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have increased high - sulfur fuel oil power generation tenders, supporting the fundamentals of the high - sulfur market [4] - Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 0.832 million barrels to 22.338 million barrels (a new high this year), and the inflow of European cargoes intensifies supply looseness [4] - During the off - season of marine fuel consumption and with the expectation of refinery restart, the spot price dropped by 85 yuan/ton weekly; OPEC+ production increase expectations suppress crude oil costs [4] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil M + 2 was at $472.35/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily increase of $6.73 and a weekly decrease of $0.98. Other regions also had corresponding price changes [6] - **Spread Changes**: LU futures M + 3 - Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil M + 2 was at $6.4711/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of $19.6327 and a weekly decrease of $6.7902. Other spreads also had different changes [6] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil M + 1 was at $407.54/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of $3.84 and a weekly decrease of $12.86. Other regions also had price fluctuations [28] - **Spread Changes**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil monthly spread was at 7.45 on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of 7.23 and a weekly decrease of 10.42. Other spreads also changed accordingly [28] Supply and Demand - Related Data - **Supply**: Data on low - sulfur fuel oil exports from Kuwait, Brazil, and Russia, as well as China's bonded port fuel oil monthly supply are presented [15][17][21] - **Demand**: Data on China's low - sulfur fuel oil port actual consumption, Singapore's marine fuel bunkering volume, and high - sulfur fuel oil sales in Singapore and Fujairah are provided [22][29][40] Inventory - Related Data - Inventory data for Singapore's residue, ARA fuel oil, Fujeirah fuel oil, and fuel oil in Zhoushan Port's bonded warehouse are shown [24][25] - Seasonal data on high - sulfur floating storage inventories in Malaysia and Singapore are also presented [48][49] Other Data - Seasonal data on low - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads, monthly spreads, and price differences between different regions are provided [7][9][12] - Seasonal data on high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads, monthly spreads, and price differences between different regions are also included [32][34][37]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Global zinc sheet supply shortage, with a cumulative shortage of 101,600 tons from January to March, and inventory continuously decreasing [3] - Decrease in zinc inventories in LME and SHFE, and basis premium supports prices [3] Bearish Factors - Rebound in imported zinc concentrate TC combined with refinery restart, strengthening the expectation of supply surplus [3] - Consumption enters the traditional off - season, galvanized demand weakens, and downstream procurement is sluggish [3] Trading Consultation Viewpoint - The SHFE zinc ZN2507 contract will maintain short - term oscillatory consolidation, with fundamental bullish and bearish factors intertwined [3] Summary by Catalog Processing and Terminal Demand - Include data on galvanized sheet coils (market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and steel mill weekly output), galvanized sheet (strip) net export, die - cast zinc alloy net import, real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transaction area, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [5][6][11][12][13][14][15][17][18] Futures and Spot Market Review - Include data on internal and external zinc price trends, LME term structure, zinc ingot basis trends [21][23][27] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Include data on zinc concentrate imports, processing fees, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventories in LME and SHFE [31][33][34][36][37][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **Likely Factors**: Weekly decline in Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel inventories, reduction in domestic stainless - steel social total inventory, and inventory depletion supports prices; firm nickel ore prices, stable and rising prices of nickel iron and intermediates, and cost - side support [2] - **Negative Factors**: High - level refined nickel production, rising global inventories, and the continuation of the pattern of strong supply and weak demand; overall weak spot demand, short - term restocking followed by a dull trading volume, and insufficient demand improvement [2] - **Trading Consultation Viewpoint**: The supply - demand contradiction has not deepened, inventory depletion is unsustainable, and the short - term will maintain a range - bound pattern [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 1,070 yuan (-0.88%); LME Nickel 3M is 15,305 dollars/ton, down 265 dollars (-1.51%); the trading volume is 145,554 lots, up 93,246 lots (178.26%); the position volume is 94,854 lots, up 65,523 lots (223.4%); the warehouse receipt number is 22,057 tons, down 193 tons (-0.87%) [3] - **Stainless - Steel Futures**: The latest value of stainless - steel main contract is 12,685 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan (-1%); the trading volume is 124,523 lots, up 25,621 lots (25.91%); the position volume is 90,669 lots, down 1,757 lots (-1.90%); the warehouse receipt number is 129,990 tons, down 9,131 tons (-6.56%) [3] - **Nickel Spot**: The latest value of Jinchuan Nickel is 123,525 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.73%); the latest value of imported nickel is 121,175 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan (0.66%) [3] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory is 41,553 tons, down 836 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,310 tons, up 930 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 967.5 tons, down 6.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, up 1,907.5 tons [3][5] 2. Charts and Graphs - **Nickel and Stainless - Steel Futures Price Trends**: Include the price trends of Shanghai Nickel futures main contract, LME Nickel (3 - month) electronic disk, and stainless - steel futures main contract [7][8] - **Nickel Spot Average Price Trend**: Shows the average price trends of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [10] - **Supply and Inventory Trends**: Include the monthly production seasonality of Chinese refined nickel, the total monthly supply of Chinese primary nickel (including imports), domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans), and LME nickel inventory [12][13] - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - Related Trends**: Include the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), Chinese port nickel ore inventory by port, Chinese nickel iron monthly production seasonality, and Indonesian nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality [14][17][20] - **Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel - Related Trends**: Include the premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate over primary nickel (plates), the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, and the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China [22][24] - **Stainless - Steel - Related Trends**: Include the profit margin seasonality of Chinese 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils, stainless - steel monthly production seasonality, and stainless - steel inventory seasonality [27][29][31]

镍不锈钢产业链周报 2025/05/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

Core View Positive Factors - Social inventory decreased by 0.25 million tons compared to last week. Downstream restocking at low prices drove the spot premium to remain stable, providing temporary support for demand [3]. - The spot price increased by 0.72% daily, and the basis premium widened to 138 yuan/ton, indicating a strong spot market [3]. Negative Factors - Mine supply is gradually recovering, with sufficient import volumes, and the market remains in an oversupply situation [3]. - Smelting profits are substantial, supply remains high, and there is an expectation of weakening demand in the medium term [3]. Trading Consultation View - It is difficult for the industry to reduce inventory. Furnace restarts in the southwest region may exacerbate the oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a short - allocation strategy [3]. Processing and Terminal Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index, inventory, and weekly production of galvanized coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips) and die - cast zinc alloys. It also includes data on real estate development investment, sales, land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [5][6][11][13][15][16]. Futures and Spot Market Review - The report shows the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc prices and the US dollar index, the LME term structure, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [20][21][23][26]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - The report provides data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventory in LME and SHFE [30][32][33][35].

Report Information - Report Date: May 21, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Production in the producing regions is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin's quotes weaken, subsequent purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, due to the current inverted soybean-palm oil price difference, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to continue to shrink the soybean-palm oil price difference to find consumption [3] - **Soybean Oil**: On the supply side, as the purchased ships arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing is also rising. However, on the consumption side, due to the lack of incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. In the future, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price difference may be repaired in the far month to compete for market share in the consumer market [3] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China-Canada relations, the premium of the market's policy expectation trading has been hit. On the actual supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has now arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a phased peak, and the expected marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed-soybean oil price difference has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. The consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides a bottom support for the far month [3] Oilseeds - **Imported Soybeans**: In terms of purchases, the US soybean futures price has weakened, and the Brazilian premium has been repaired upwards. However, recently, the sales progress of Argentine soybeans has accelerated, and the quotes have decreased, limiting the upward space of the Brazilian premium. The near-month crushing profit still exists, but the far-month crushing profit has turned negative. It is expected that it will be difficult to achieve higher crushing profits under the current sales rhythm in Brazil. In terms of arrivals, the expected arrivals in May are 1.3 billion tons, 1.15 billion tons in June, and 1.15 billion tons in July. Overall, the near-month supply is still relatively abundant, but there is still a gap in purchases for the far-month fourth quarter [15] - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The actual pressure continues to suppress the price of soybean meal. In North China, it is difficult to support the stability of the spot price, and in East China, the high inventory of soybean meal continues to suppress the basis quotation. In the second quarter, the basis is expected to continue to be weak. Currently, although the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a low level in recent years, the expected increase in soybean arrivals will lead to a continuous increase in the soybean inventory of oil mills. With the expectation of a recovery in the operating rate, it is difficult for the soybean meal price to achieve effective spot-futures linkage and rise. From the demand side, in the short term, downstream enterprises will continue to fulfill their previous delivery contracts and mainly replenish their physical inventories, and will remain cautious about purchasing far-month contracts [15] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The customs clearance issue in the East China region affects the supply of regional oil mills, but the actual inventory pressure is still relatively high, and the inventory depletion rate of rapeseed meal is slow. The monthly average import volume of rapeseed ships in the future is about 200,000 tons, but the overall market is cautious about imported rapeseed after June 10. Coupled with the uncertainty of the subsequent China-Canada rapeseed tariff, the far-month supply is highly uncertain [15] Summary by Category Fats and Oils - **Price and Spread Information**: The price and spread data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided, including the price difference between different contract months and different varieties [4][7][12] - **Market Conditions**: The current market conditions of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are analyzed, including production, supply, consumption, and inventory [3] Oilseeds - **Price Information**: The futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, including the closing price, daily change, and change rate [16][18] - **Market Conditions**: The market conditions of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are analyzed, including purchases, arrivals, supply, demand, and inventory [15]