Core View - The decline in port inventory and the stabilization of the cost side support a short - term rebound, but the increase in supply and warehouse receipt pressure restrict the upside space, and the near - strong and far - weak structure continues [4] - Weekly port inventory decreased on a week - on - week basis. The decline in import arrivals eased supply pressure and supported spot sentiment [3] - The stabilization of crude oil and the maintained advantage of the naphtha - propane spread provided short - term support for chemical demand [3] - The resumption of refinery production drove a week - on - week increase in the commercial volume, and the pattern of loose supply continued [3] - The PG2509 contract faced the pressure of historical high - level warehouse receipts, and the delivery contradiction remained unresolved, limiting the rebound space of the near - month contract [3] Data Charts - The report includes data charts on propane, such as the Far East CIF price FEI, FEI and Brent ratio, PDH profit/operating rate, FEI/MOPJ spread, FEI discount, Middle East FOB discount, US FOB price, MB and WTI ratio, VLGC freight, US propane weekly production, import volume, inventory, and export volume [5][9][12][15][17]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View High inventory and increased supply suppress the price, but the Indian tender expectation and cost support limit a significant decline. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Points - India's NFL launched a new tender for 2 million tons (bid closing on September 2nd), and the potential export demand boosts market confidence, with short - term sentiment being positive [4]. - The price of thermal coal is rising steadily, the loss of the fixed - bed process is expanding, and the cost support is strengthening marginally [4]. - The total inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase, reaching the peak in the same period in the past five years, which restricts the upside [4]. - The weekly output is increasing, and new production capacity is planned to be released from August to September, so the supply pressure remains [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: The total inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase, reaching the peak in the same period in the past five years [4]. There are also data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, etc. [7][8] - **Futures and Spot Price**: Data on urea futures main - contract trading volume, open interest, warehouse receipts, as well as spot prices in Henan and Shandong, and related basis and price differences are presented [10][15][19] - **Production Cost and Profit**: Data on the production cost and profit of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and water - coal slurry gasification methods are provided [27][29] - **Production - related Data**: Information on production enterprise's backlog order days, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, and new production capacity plan is included [32][34] - **Compound Fertilizer**: Data on compound fertilizer's capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, and production gross profit are provided [39] - **External Market and Cost - related**: Data on the FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, as well as thermal coal spot prices and port inventory are presented [43][44][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are supported by a weakening US dollar index, an 87.2% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, mixed labor - market data, and Middle - East geopolitical tensions [3]. - Copper prices face upward pressure from the US dollar index and demand feedback at high prices, but are supported by increasing downstream acceptance, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short - term due to dovish Fed signals and increasing downstream restocking, while alumina is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply surpluses [33]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with supply in a surplus state, stable demand, and potential risks of a short squeeze in LME inventories [62]. - The nickel industry shows stability in nickel ore, firmness in nickel iron, and an uncertain outlook for stainless steel and nickel sulfate, with attention on the September rate - cut expectation [77]. - Tin prices may rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - Carbonate lithium prices may have short - term rebound opportunities if there are supply disruptions, but the long - term supply - demand situation remains loose [103]. - Industrial silicon is in a wait - and - see state, with its开工 rate potentially peaking, and polysilicon requires attention to industry policies [111]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Supported by a low - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and economic data, pushing up prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily view provided, but multiple data charts on prices, spreads, and inventories are presented [4][6][11]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term upward pressure and downward support coexist, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Market Data**: Various copper futures and spot prices show daily increases, with different price changes in different contracts [16][19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: LME copper inventory increased by 1.19% to 157,950 tons, and the scrap - refined copper spread remained stable [15][31]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term upward - biased oscillation due to macro and demand factors [33]. - **Alumina**: Weak short - term oscillation due to supply surpluses, with a support range of 3000 - 3050 yuan per ton and a reference upper range of 3250 - 3300 yuan per ton [33]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by tight scrap - aluminum supply and tax - policy changes, with a price spread of 400 - 500 yuan per ton from aluminum [34]. 3.4 Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is in a surplus state, demand is stable, and there is a potential short - squeeze risk in LME inventories [62]. - **Price Movement**: LME zinc prices rose by 0.73% to 2781 dollars per ton, while domestic zinc prices declined slightly [63]. 3.5 Nickel - **Nickel Ore**: Stable, with a possible slight decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in September [77]. - **Nickel Iron**: Relatively firm, with some large - scale transactions above 940 [77]. - **Stainless Steel and Nickel Sulfate**: Both show oscillating trends, with attention on the September - October peak season [77]. 3.6 Tin - **Price Outlook**: May rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures prices increased, with the Shanghai tin main contract rising 2.19% to 278,650 yuan per ton [93]. 3.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Price Outlook**: Short - term potential for price rebounds with supply disruptions, but long - term supply - demand remains loose [103]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices declined, with the main carbonate lithium futures contract dropping 960 yuan to 77,180 yuan per ton [104][106]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: Suggest a wait - and - see approach, with the开工 rate potentially peaking [111]. - **Market Data**: Spot and futures prices declined, with the industrial silicon main contract dropping 2.1% to 8390 yuan per ton [112][115].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The processing fee of copper concentrates has fallen into the negative range, and Codelco in Chile has lowered its annual production forecast, intensifying supply concerns [4]. - The social inventory has decreased this week, and the absolute quantity remains at a low level. The approaching peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" drive the expectation of marginal improvement in demand [4]. - The three major exchanges, LME, COMEX, and SHFE, have collectively accumulated inventory, reflecting weak terminal consumption during the off - season [4]. - The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm has increased, and the decline in market sentiment suppresses the support of the financial attribute [4]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper are mixed, with the contradiction between tight ore supply and inventory accumulation coexisting. Coupled with the repeated macro - drivers, it will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, waiting for the verification of peak - season demand and the clarification of policy signals [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Position | Weekly Position Change | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 79,410 yuan/ton | +0.91% | 173,826 | +52,924 | 71,061 | | Shanghai Copper Index Weighted | 79,394 yuan/ton | +0.95% | 479,332 | +18,695 | 156,498 | | International Copper | 70,490 yuan/ton | +1.08% | 3,755 | -217 | 4,869 | | LME Copper 3 - month | $9,839.5/ton | +1.22% | 239,014 | -38,282 | 14,271 | | COMEX Copper | $454.45/lb | +2.17% | 105,404 | +64,381 | 28,789 | [6] 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,390 | +560 | +0.71% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 79,355 | +530 | +0.67% | | Guangdong Southern Storage | yuan/ton | 79,220 | +470 | +0.6% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,450 | +500 | +0.63% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 250 | +100 | +66.67% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 185 | +50 | +37.04% | | Guangdong Southern Storage Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 210 | +45 | +27.27% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 175 | +15 | +9.38% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium/Discount | $/ton | -82.79 | +7.96 | -8.77% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium/Discount | $/ton | -167.53 | -1.05 | +0.63% | [11][12] 3.3 Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 330.65 | +95.84 | +40.82% | | Copper Concentrate TC | $/ton | -41.06 | -2.86 | +7.49% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 3.8002 | -0.0087 | -0.23% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | yuan/ton | 1,252.66 | +218.62 | +21.14% | [13] 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Value | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 21,412 | -2,736 | -11.33% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 5,597 | -528 | -8.62% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | tons | 79,748 | -1,950 | -2.39% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 144,850 | -750 | -0.52% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | tons | 13,100 | +2,350 | +21.86% | | LME Copper Inventory | tons | 157,950 | +1,600 | +1.02% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 141,869 | +4,626 | +3.37% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 133,357 | -1,096 | -0.82% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 275,226 | +3,530 | +1.3% | | Copper Ore Port Inventory | million tons | 47.3 | +5.1 | +12.09% | | Social Inventory | million tons | 41.82 | +0.43 | +1.04% | [19][21] 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) | Production Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 127 | +14% | 862.3 | +9.9% | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 216.9 | +8.3% | 1423.7 | +9.4% | [24] 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) | Capacity Type | Date | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 1,584 | 61.32% | -1% | -0.85% | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 819 | 26.73% | -5.28% | -3.43% | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 359 | 65.73% | -3% | -5.66% | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 228.65 | 50.45% | -1.07% | -1.47% | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 278.3 | 67.88% | -4.37% | +3.83% | [26] 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) | Import Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 256.0072 | +18% | 1,731.7445 | +8% | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 84,217 | +19% | 466,925 | -12% | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 296,896 | +8% | 1,943,043 | -6% | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 190,078 | -2% | 1,335,483 | -1% | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 480,000 | +10% | 3,110,000 | -2.6% | [30]

1. Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a sideways adjustment. After briefly breaking below 4,500 ringgit, they gradually declined and tested the support at the 20 - day moving average of 4,400 ringgit. If it can find support here, it may stop falling. Fundamentally, the production growth is lower than the export growth, which could support the futures to return above 4,500 ringgit. With the potential bullish impact of limited inventory increase at the end of August, there is a chance for a sideways upward trend. The view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and it's crucial to watch if it can hold at 4,400 ringgit [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are also in a sideways adjustment. After breaking below the 20 - day moving average, there is downward pressure, and it is expected to seek support around 9,200 yuan and then stabilize. After this correction and effectively standing firm, with the boost of the recovery of Malaysian palm oil, Dalian palm oil futures may gradually start a sideways upward trend. After returning above 9,500 yuan and standing firm, there is a chance to follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil. The view is also near - term weak and long - term strong [3]. Soybean Oil - International vegetable oils have been falling continuously (the end of the fuel consumption peak season has dragged down the vegetable oil market). CBOT soybean oil has fallen for five consecutive days, and BMD palm oil has fallen four days out of five, both dragging down domestic oils. Although domestic soybean oil has fallen, the decline is limited because the consumption season has started, and funds are reluctant to short aggressively. Currently, domestic demand is good, but international related varieties continue to exert pressure, so there is still some downward space, but the decline is not large. The support for the main January contract is seen around 8,300 yuan. If downstream consumption is good later, there is a chance for it to strengthen after the correction [4]. Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - Spot market: The fixed - price of oil mills generally remains stable. Although the Dalian soybean meal futures have slightly rebounded, at the end of the month, oil mills are increasing the pressure to pick up goods, and some traders' actual transactions are negotiable due to inventory transfer pressure. In the short term, the domestic market is executing inventory and September positions, and the trading pace is slow. However, with the premium trading of imported soybean auctions and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs, the terminal's bullish expectation for the long - term remains unchanged, and the upward trend of soybean meal prices continues [19]. 2. Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - **Price and Spread Table**: P 1 - 5 is 260 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 1,042 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 68 yuan; etc. [5] - **Palm Oil Price**: Palm oil 01 is 9,316 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.04%; BMD palm oil main contract is 4,406 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.97%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 9,470 yuan/ton with an increase of 30 yuan [8]. - **Soybean Oil Price**: Soybean oil 01 is 8,358 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.53%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.37 cents/pound with a decline of 1.47%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8,470 yuan/ton with a decline of 50 yuan [15]. Oilseed Price and Spread - **Futures Price**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3,055 with an increase of 16 and a rise of 0.53%; the closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2,513 with an increase of 30 and a rise of 1.21%; CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1,048.25 with no change [20]. - **Spread Table**: M01 - 05 is 225 with a daily increase of 9; RM01 - 05 is 75 with a daily increase of 20; etc. [21][23] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3,000 with no change, and the basis is - 39 with an increase of 6; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2,534 with a decline of 21, and the basis is 51 with a decline of 3 [23].

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 2025年8月29日 研究员：李海啸 交易咨询：Z0019568 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 http://www.eafutures .com 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完 整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司 不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下 做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者 （您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成 的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 黑色系周报—铁矿石 发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发 的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的 引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly - Steel Products [2] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In this period, the production of rebar decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand increased; the production of hot-rolled coils decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased. With the arrival of the high-temperature rainy season, the inventory of the five major steel products has continuously accumulated. Rebar and hot-rolled coils are weakly oscillating and adjusting. Then, pay attention to the de-stocking time of rebar. [5] - The rebar 2601 contract is oscillating. [5] - The hot-rolled coil 2601 contract is oscillating. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro - In July, data such as new real estate starts and infrastructure investment declined month-on-month. [5] 2. Supply - In July 2025, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel products, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative export of steel products was 67.983 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. [7] - The pig iron output was 2.4013 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 62,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 192,400 tons. [7] - The output of the five major steel products was 8.8461 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 65,500 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1.0595 million tons. The rebar output was 2.2056 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 59,100 tons and a year-on-year increase of 583,000 tons; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.2474 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 196,900 tons. [7] - The EAF operating rate was 75.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.59%. [7] 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 14.6788 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 268,400 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 950,700 tons. The rebar inventory was 6.2339 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,500 tons and a year-on-year increase of 276,800 tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 3.6546 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 40,200 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 763,500 tons. [7] 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.5777 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 47,800 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1,900 tons. [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Coking Coal and Coke [2] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Views - For coking coal, with improved macro - expectations, slowed inventory depletion at mines, mixed spot transactions, and frequent regulatory pressures, the coking coal 2601 contract will oscillate [5] - For coke, with tight coke inventories in some regions and a game between the eighth round of price hikes and the first round of price cuts, the coke 2601 contract will oscillate [8] Summary by Directory 1. Price - Coking coal warehouse receipt is 1094, Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is 1182, coke warehouse receipt is 1608, and the overseas warehouse receipt price of Australian coal is 1518 [11] 2. Demand, Profit, and开工 - Coking plant's on - paper profit (01 contract) is 160, a week - on - week decrease of 20 [12] - Total coke daily output is 110.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.57 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 million tons [12] - Hot metal output is 240.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 19.24 million tons [12] - Coal washery output is 25.98 million tons (with changes in the coal washery sample data), a week - on - week increase of 0.26 million tons [12] 3. Inventory - Coke total inventory is 887.47 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 87.51 million tons [14] - Coking plant's coke inventory is 65.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.62 million tons [14] - Steel mill's coke inventory is 610.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 68.19 million tons [14] - Port inventory is 212.09 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.53 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 31.94 million tons [14] - Coking coal total inventory is 2048.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.26 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 187.63 million tons [16] - Coking plant's coking coal inventory is 961.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.14 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 109.58 million tons [16] - Steel mill's coking coal inventory is 811.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 77.39 million tons [16] - Port inventory is 275.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 86.98 tons [16] - Coal washery inventory is 289.48 million tons (with data sample changes), a week - on - week decrease of 5.36 million tons [16] 4. Import and Export - From January to July, coking coal imports were 62.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.47% [19] - From January to July, coke exports were 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.02% [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The oilseed and oil sectors are facing various supply - demand challenges. The oilmeal market has potential supply contractions, while the oil market is generally weak with high inventories. Without bio - diesel speculation, the oil market is likely to return to a weak fundamental state and may experience further short - term adjustments [6][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilmeal Market 1.1 Soybean Meal - In August, the USDA cut the U.S. soybean area, potentially leading to a supply contraction in the global market in the fourth quarter. The U.S. soybean is entering the harvest period, and its inventory is expected to decline. There is uncertainty about Sino - U.S. tariffs, and domestic soybean purchases in November are not active. The domestic spot price has stopped falling and is in a low - level oscillation. As the domestic futures market drops, the spot basis strengthens, presenting opportunities for a low - level rebound [6]. 1.2 Rapeseed Meal - The short - term fundamentals are relatively stable. The potential anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant drop in imports, but there is uncertainty before the tariffs are finalized. Domestic rapeseed inventory is low, and insufficient imports may slow down rapeseed crushing, affecting the supply of domestic rapeseed meal and oil. The domestic rapeseed meal market has price but low trading volume, with low overall inventory, and the medium - term outlook is positive. The uncertainty lies in future tariff negotiations with Canada and the implementation of import policies [6]. 2. Oil Market 2.1 Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil production is increasing, leading to high - level inventory accumulation. The price difference with other oils may cause demand substitution. After the speculation on soybean oil exports, there is no further progress. If exports do not meet expectations, the domestic market may face an oversupply situation. Future attention should be paid to the price difference and substitution effects of overseas bio - diesel and palm oil [37]. 2.2 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are in a high - level oscillation. The delay of Indonesia's B50 program may weaken the bio - diesel outlook. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the overseas supply pressure has slightly eased, but the seasonal inventory build - up is not over. Attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil market and bio - diesel. Domestic inventory is high and increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. Higher import costs may lead to price drops if the overseas market weakens [38]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed sector lacks new topics, and during the off - season, inventory reduction is slow, putting pressure on the market. However, anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce the supply of rapeseed oil. Currently, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, with low terminal purchasing willingness and weak trading in many regions, and the basis continues to decline slightly [39].

Core View - Bullish factors include improved stainless steel mill profits leading to increased production, rising new energy vehicle sales boosting demand, strong cost support at the lower end, a falling US dollar index lifting nickel prices, and an improved macro - environment [3] - Bearish factors are high stainless steel inventories, declining demand for new energy ternary batteries suppressing nickel consumption, increasing global nickel ore supply and rising production, and a rebounding US dollar increasing cost pressure [3] - The trading advisory view is that the fundamentals are weak, but the increase in downstream procurement volume leads to significant divergence between bulls and bears [3] Market Data Nickel - The latest values of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, continuous 2, continuous 3) are 120990 yuan/ton, 120990 yuan/ton, 121110 yuan/ton, and 121300 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 0.57%, 1.15%, 1.09%, and 1.09% [4] - LME nickel 3M is at 15190 dollars/ton, up 1.04% weekly [4] - The positions decreased by 16.4% to 92205 hands, trading volume increased by 8.94% to 129831 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.39% to 22013 tons [4] - The basis of the main contract is - 1060 yuan/ton, down 7.83% [4] - The spot prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, and nickel beans are 122850 yuan/ton, 120950 yuan/ton, 121750 yuan/ton, and 123050 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 1.25%, 1.10%, 1.14%, and 1.05% [4] - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 40872 tons, a decrease of 1019 tons; LME nickel inventory is 209676 tons, an increase of 456 tons [4][7] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless steel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, continuous 2, continuous 3) are 12850 yuan/ton, 12850 yuan/ton, 12915 yuan/ton, and 12980 yuan/ton respectively, with the main contract unchanged, and continuous 1, 2, 3 up 0.78%, 0.70%, and 0.89% weekly [4] - The trading volume decreased by 22.05% to 121866 hands, positions decreased by 10.48% to 127116 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.47% to 100431 tons [4] - The basis of the main contract is 620 yuan/ton, down 13.89% [4] - The stainless steel social inventory is 928.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.6 thousand tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 33111 tons, a decrease of 304 tons [7] Charts - There are charts showing the trends of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures main contracts, stainless steel futures main contract, nickel spot average price, China's refined nickel monthly production, China's primary nickel total monthly supply, domestic social nickel inventory, LME nickel inventory, Philippine laterite nickel ore price, China's port nickel ore inventory, China's nickel - iron monthly production, Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production, battery - grade nickel sulfate average price, nickel - bean - produced nickel sulfate profit margin, China's externally - sourced nickel - sulfate - produced electrowon nickel profit, China's nickel sulfate monthly production, ternary precursor monthly production capacity, China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory [9][11][13][15][16][17][20][22][24][26][28][29][31][33]