尿素市场2026年年报 尿素：冬去春犹近 波平势渐升 ——2025年尿素市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 夏聪聪 Z0012870 摘要： 2025 年，尿素期货呈现低位运行态势，重心先扬后抑，基本在 1600-1950 内波动， 价格波动区间明显收窄。供需持续宽松，尿素行情跟随季节性特点波动。 上游原料煤炭价格降至低位，企业生产利润表现尚可，尿素市场产能继续投放， 2025 年新投产产能较多，国内供应规模扩大。加之尿素产能利用率长期处于高位， 日产量不断提升，一度超过 20 万吨，市场货源充沛。但下游需求跟进略显一般，尤 其是工业需求受到宏观环境的影响普遍偏弱，且多数与房地产相关，回暖略显乏力。 农业需求存在季节性特点，在天气因素扰动下，整体释放情况不及预期。尿素出口 有所好转，2025 年下半年开始明显放量，对国内市场存在一定支撑。为了保障化肥 供应安全，尿素出口仍处于监管阶段。2026 年，尿素市场将延续高开工、高供应态 势，货源供应较为充裕。国内种植面积稳定增加，农业需求保持增长态势，但工业 需求增量或有限。国内供需压力较大，且国内外价差扩大，尿素出口或逐步改善。 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the methanol futures market was weak, breaking the wide - range oscillation pattern with a continuously declining center of gravity. The fundamental factors lacked driving forces, and the market was sluggish. The domestic methanol spot market had over - capacity, and with the launch of new production capacities, the supply - demand pressure increased. The supply remained stable, while the terminal demand was poor due to the macro - environment. The downstream industries showed differentiation, and the port inventory reached a historical high [1][125]. - In 2026, the methanol production capacity will still expand, but the expansion speed will slow down. The new projects are mostly integrated with downstream facilities, so the impact on domestic supply may be limited. The downstream demand is still dominated by coal - to - olefins, and traditional demand industries such as acetic acid may have certain increments. The market is expected to gradually reduce inventory, and the supply - demand relationship will remain weak. The futures price is expected to return to the previous wide - range oscillation range, showing a trend of lower at the beginning and higher at the end, with support at 1850 - 1950 and resistance at 2600 - 2700 [2][126]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Market Review 3.1.1 Historical Trend Review - From 2011 to 2013, methanol showed high - level oscillation, with a price range of about 2530 - 3150. After its listing, it was affected by new - speculation funds and then reversed due to the reduction of international supply [11]. - From 2013 to 2015, it experienced a sharp rise and fall. The high price led to downstream resistance, and factors such as over - capacity and weak demand caused the price to drop to a low level [12][13]. - From 2016 to 2018, it rebounded from the bottom. The improvement of supply - demand relationship, the rise of international oil prices, and the support of coal prices drove the price up [14]. - From 2018 to 2020, it entered a weak adjustment period. High prices, environmental policies, and weak demand led to a continuous decline in the price, reaching a historical low in 2020 [15][16]. - From 2020 to 2021, it showed a restorative increase. The improvement of the macro - environment and the demand, as well as the impact of policies and cost factors, promoted the price to rise to a new high [17]. - From 2021 to 2023, it fell rapidly. The decline of coal prices, the general decline of the commodity market, and the impact of the macro - environment led to a continuous decline in the price [18]. - Since the second half of 2023, it has been in a wide - range oscillation, with the center of gravity fluctuating between 1950 - 2730 [19]. 3.1.2 Methanol Trend in 2025 - In 2025, the methanol futures market showed a phased decline. It reached an annual high of 2725 at the beginning of the year, then fell to around 2200 in May. After a short - term rebound, it continued to decline, breaking through 2000 in October and reaching a five - year low. As of December 12, the annual decline was 23.53% [22]. 3.2 Price Fluctuation Analysis 3.2.1 Seasonal Characteristics - Methanol consumption has seasonal characteristics. The demand is low during the Spring Festival and from June to August, and high from September to October and in winter. However, in recent years, the distinction between peak and off - peak seasons has become less obvious [26]. 3.2.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - As of the end of November 2025, the trading volume of methanol futures was 165.8372 million lots, the trading value was 3.929235 trillion yuan, and the open interest was 1.0488 million lots. In recent years, the trading volume has shown a downward trend, and the open interest has shown a phased increase. In 2025, the trading activity decreased, and the open interest was relatively stable [30][31]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Environment 3.3.1 Stable National Economy - In 2025, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend under the influence of positive macro - policies, despite facing complex international and domestic situations [36]. 3.3.2 The Fed's Third Interest Rate Cut in the Year - In 2024, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020. In 2025, it cut interest rates three times, and there was a "roller - coaster" - like fluctuation in the December interest - rate cut expectation. It is expected to cut interest rates once in 2026 [37]. 3.3.3 LPR Remained Unchanged for Six Consecutive Months - Since May 20, 2025, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs have remained unchanged for six consecutive months, which is in line with market expectations, mainly due to the stable and strong macro - economy [43]. 3.4 Methanol Supply Analysis 3.4.1 Stabilized and Rising Coal Prices - In 2025, coal prices first declined and then rose. The supply tightened due to safety inspections and other factors, and the demand increased due to high - temperature weather and other reasons. In 2026, coal supply may remain stable, and the price range may move up [46][47]. 3.4.2 Pressured International Oil Prices - International oil prices showed a wide - range oscillation with a downward - shifted price center, mainly due to the supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical factors. In 2026, the oversupply issue may intensify, and the price center may continue to move down [51][52]. 3.4.3 Alternating Rise and Fall of Spot Prices - In 2025, the domestic methanol spot market showed an alternating rise - and - fall pattern with a downward - shifted center of gravity. It was affected by macro - news and geopolitical factors. In 2026, the supply will remain stable, and the price may stop falling and operate at a low level [55]. 3.4.4 Increased Production with High - level Operation - In 2025, the methanol industry's operation rate increased, and the production was sufficient. The annual production is expected to exceed 90 million tons. In 2026, the operation rate will still focus on the spring maintenance period [64][65]. 3.4.5 Sustained Growth of Production Capacity - China's methanol production capacity is still growing, but the growth rate is slowing down. In 2025, some new production capacities were released, and in 2026, there are still plans for new capacity launches [66]. 3.4.6 High - level Imports - In 2025, methanol imports showed a pattern of low at the beginning and high at the end, with an expected annual import volume of about 14.41 million tons. In 2026, imports may continue this pattern, but the increment may be limited [75]. 3.5 Downstream Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Steady Increase in Market Consumption - Methanol consumption has been increasing year by year, but the growth rate has slowed down since 2020. In 2025, the consumption is expected to reach about 105 million tons. In 2026, the downstream consumption industries will still show differentiation, and attention should be paid to the increment in emerging fields [78][79]. 3.5.2 Performance of Downstream Demand Industries - Coal - to - olefins dominates the downstream demand, accounting for more than 50%. In 2025, the coal - to - olefins industry maintained a high operation rate, and the traditional demand industries showed a slight recovery. In 2026, the acetic acid industry will enter an expansion cycle, while the formaldehyde and dimethyl ether industries will face over - capacity problems [81][92]. 3.5.3 Slight Increase in Export Market - In 2025, China's methanol exports improved significantly, with an expected annual export volume of more than 260,000 tons. In 2026, the export may return to a low level due to the narrowing of the arbitrage space [103]. 3.5.4 Record - high Port Inventory - In 2025, the methanol port inventory first decreased and then increased, reaching a historical high of 1.674 million tons in November. In 2026, the high - inventory pressure will continue [107]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the methanol market supply - demand relationship remained loose. In 2026, the supply will continue to expand, while the demand growth is limited, and the high - inventory state will persist [110]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - From a long - term perspective, the upward - converging triangle pattern of methanol futures was broken, and it is in a weak oscillation pattern. In 2026, it is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range, with support at 1850 - 1950 and resistance at 2600 - 2700 [114]. 3.8 Options Market Operation - In 2025, the methanol options market fluctuated sharply, with high implied volatility and a bearish sentiment. As of December 12, 2025, the daily trading volume was 241,116 lots, the open interest was 145,747 lots, the weighted implied volatility was 19%, and the open - interest PCR was 77.67%. In 2026, considering the weak oscillation of methanol, one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options with low strike prices [124]. 3.9 Market Outlook for 2026 - In 2026, the methanol production capacity will expand at a slower pace, and the downstream demand will still be dominated by coal - to - olefins. The market is expected to gradually reduce inventory, and the supply - demand relationship will remain weak. The futures price is expected to show a trend of lower at the beginning and higher at the end, with support at 1850 - 1950 and resistance at 2600 - 2700 [2][126]. 3.10 Industry - related Stocks - The report lists some methanol - related stocks and their annual price changes as of December 12, 2025, including Hualu Hengsheng, Yuanxing Energy, etc. [128]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the cotton futures market was in a bottom - building phase, with the annual trend mainly influenced by Sino - US trade relations, a significant decline in imports, and a notable increase in Xinjiang's cotton production. The price reached a low due to Sino - US trade tensions, rose due to supply concerns from import decline, and then fell back due to higher - than - expected new cotton production [1]. - In 2026, whether cotton prices continue to build the bottom or rebound depends on supply - side drivers. There is a risk of reduced planting globally, and the price is expected to move upward. The operating range of the cotton 2601 contract is expected to be 13200 - 14000, and that of the 2605 contract is estimated to be 13400 - 14500. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities at low prices, and downstream industrial customers can consider buying hedging opportunities at the lower end of the range [2][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Long - term Cotton Trends and 2025 Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Historical Review - Since the listing of Zhengzhou cotton futures in 2004, its price has fluctuated greatly, with a historical low of around 9800 and a high of 34870. The price is affected by economic cycles, weather, and policies. The long - term trend can be divided into ten stages, including supply - demand balance, bull and bear markets, and periods affected by events such as the European debt crisis, Sino - US trade frictions, and weather disturbances [11]. 3.1.2 2025 Futures Market Summary - In 2025, domestic cotton futures showed a typical range - bound pattern. From January to April, the price declined due to unmet demand expectations and Sino - US trade frictions. From May to August, it rose due to supply concerns and eased trade relations. From September to November, it fell back as new cotton production pressure emerged [20][21]. 3.1.3 2025 Spot Market Summary - In 2025, the domestic cotton spot market showed a pattern of "range - bound with a slight shift in the center of gravity." The annual average price of 3128B cotton was 14791 yuan/ton, slightly up from the beginning of the year but down year - on - year. The price declined from January to April due to trade frictions, rose from May to July due to improved expectations and supply concerns, and fell again from August to November due to new cotton production expectations and weak demand [22][23]. 3.1.4 Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of cotton futures decreased. From January to October, the cumulative trading volume was 61340818 lots, a 24.41% year - on - year decline, and the cumulative turnover was 41646 billion yuan, a 31.3% year - on - year decline. The open interest was relatively stable, with a slight increase in October. As of the end of October, the open interest was 918452 lots, higher than the same period last year [25]. 3.2 Global Cotton Market Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Cotton Supply Market Analysis - **2025/26 Annual Global Cotton Production Growth**: In 2025/26, global cotton production is expected to reach 120 million bales (about 26.13 million tons), a 0.67% year - on - year increase. The growth mainly comes from Brazil and China, while the production of other major cotton - producing countries such as the US and India is flat or slightly declining. The final output of Australia is the main uncertainty [32][33]. - **2026/27 Annual Global Cotton Production Forecast**: In 2026/27, global cotton planting enthusiasm is generally expected to be average, and the area expansion motivation is limited. The core variable of future production will focus on yield performance. Brazil's production is expected to be stable but slightly decreased [38][39]. 3.2.2 Global Cotton Demand Market Analysis - **2026/27 Global Economic Growth Forecast**: The global economic growth is expected to slow down in 2026. Although the growth in 2025 was slightly higher than expected, factors such as high tariffs, public debt, and geopolitical tensions pose threats to the global economy in 2026 [46]. - **Textile and Apparel Markets in Developed Countries**: In 2025, the US textile and apparel market showed some resilience, with moderate growth in consumption and imports. The EU market had strong import growth, and the Japanese market had a moderate increase in both volume and value. However, in 2026, high tariffs will pose challenges to the US consumer market [47][52][55]. - **Asian Textile Markets**: In 2025, India's clothing exports increased by diversifying markets, Bangladesh's exports were stable but faced some challenges, and Vietnam's textile industry had a complex situation of "upstream production increase, downstream production decrease, and export value increase" [57][60][62]. 3.2.3 Performance of US Cotton Prices during the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Cycle - Since 2000, during the Fed's four major interest - rate cut cycles, the impact of interest - rate cuts on US cotton prices was limited. Cotton prices are mainly determined by supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - monetary policies only have an indirect impact [67][69]. 3.2.4 US Cotton Futures Prices Continue to Build the Bottom - In 2026, the pressure on the global cotton supply side will weaken. The planting enthusiasm for global cotton is decreasing, and the US cotton price has fallen below the production cost line. The demand side has high uncertainty due to economic growth slowdown and trade policies. The trend of US cotton futures prices in 2026 will focus on "bottom - building," and weather conditions will be the key factor [72][74]. 3.3 Domestic Cotton Market Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Domestic Cotton Supply Situation Analysis - **This Year's Production Expansion and Next Year's Policy Impact**: This year, domestic cotton production has significantly increased, mainly due to the expansion of planting area. Next year, the planting area is expected to remain stable. The key factors affecting production will be policies and weather [75][78]. - **2025/26 Import Volume Forecast**: In 2025, China's cotton imports decreased significantly. In 2026, the import volume is expected to remain low, with the estimated range between 1.1 million and 1.4 million tons [81][83]. 3.3.2 Domestic Cotton Demand Situation Analysis - **2025 Textile Industry Performance**: In 2025, the Chinese textile industry showed a trend of "stable production but reduced profits." The production was stable, but the profit margin shrank due to weak market demand and high costs [87][92]. - **2025 Domestic Sales Market**: In 2025, the domestic textile and apparel sales market was "stable in retail but under pressure in profits." The retail sales increased moderately, but the production enterprises faced operational pressure. In 2026, the market is expected to run smoothly under policy support [98][100]. - **2025 Textile and Apparel Exports**: In 2025, textile and apparel exports were under pressure due to factors such as global economic slowdown and US tariff policies. In 2026, the export situation will still be challenging, although the tariff advantage of Southeast Asian countries to the US is narrowing [103][105]. - **Substitution Competition of Polyester Staple Fiber and Viscose Staple Fiber**: The substitution competition between polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, and cotton is still strong. In 2026, the substitution pressure is expected to continue, and the price difference between cotton and chemical fibers will be the key factor [110][111]. 3.3.3 Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 period, the domestic cotton market is expected to maintain a general supply - demand balance, with a slight increase in total supply and a slight decrease in consumption, resulting in a small inventory accumulation [112]. 3.4 Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities for the 5 - 9 spread. Based on the expected decline in imports, the support for the far - month price is gradually strengthening [116]. 3.5 Seasonal Analysis - According to the seasonal chart of the cotton futures index, the probability of price increases is relatively high in April and December, and the probability of price declines is relatively high in February and May [121]. 3.6 Cotton Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions - In 2026, the supply side pressure is not significant, and the focus is on processing rhythm, planting area and yield expectations, and import market changes. The demand side faces challenges, mainly from the export market and substitution pressure. The price trend depends on supply - side drivers, and it is recommended to focus on buying opportunities at low prices [124][127]. 3.7 Cotton Option Market Analysis and Operation Strategies - For upstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. For downstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. For speculators, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [134]. 3.8 Related Stock Price Changes - The report lists the price changes of some cotton - related stocks from January 2, 2025, to December 12, 2025, with different stocks showing varying degrees of increase or decrease [136].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply is relatively abundant due to the previous import volume increase and the continuous new opening of domestic sugar mills. Both domestic and international sugar are in a state of supply surplus, so the driving force for further rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions and consider selling call options. The support level of SR2605 contract is 5130 - 5150, and the pressure level is 5280 - 5300 [4]. - **Pulp**: Recent changes in the supply of softwood pulp have increased the volatility of the pulp futures market. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled, the new warehouse receipts have not increased yet, and the cost has risen, which is bullish for the market. However, the current supply of softwood pulp is not tight, and the inventory of producers in October increased slightly, reaching a high level in recent years. Domestic paper mills are adjusting the raw material ratio to reduce the use of high - priced softwood pulp. The continuity of the recent upward trend needs to be observed, and short - term caution is recommended for further increases above 5600. It is recommended to try a light short position in the 2605 contract, with the upper pressure at 5550 - 5600 yuan and the support at 5280 - 5330 yuan [4][5]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price of raw wood pulp has fallen from a high level, and the offset printing paper futures price fluctuates with the cost, while the spot price remains stable, and the basis has widened. The demand improvement in the fourth - quarter peak season has limited impact on the overall inventory replenishment willingness, and the capacity is relatively abundant. Although the year - end demand still has support, the improvement of paper mill profits and offset printing paper prices is limited. After the basis widens, the support for the futures price may increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4300 - 4500 yuan [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The USDA December report revised up the US cotton production and ending stocks, and the consumption is still suppressed by high tariffs. The domestic commercial and industrial inventories of cotton have increased month - on - month, indicating sufficient short - term supply, but the year - on - year increase is not significant, indicating limited long - term pressure. The macro - economic outlook is positive, which weakens the downward momentum of cotton prices. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract on dips, with the support range of the 01 contract estimated at 13200 - 13300 and the pressure range at 13800 - 13850 [8]. - **Apples**: The market sentiment has returned to calm, and the futures price has entered a high - level oscillation. The new - season apple production, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are all lower than last year, which still provides support, but the support is expected to weaken. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the 2605 contract, with the support range at 8800 - 8900 and the pressure range at 9700 - 9800 [9]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price rose and then fell on Wednesday. The warehouse receipts have increased to 850 lots. The short - term decline in the 2601 contract has narrowed, and the futures - to - spot price difference has gradually returned. The market's expectation of production reduction has cooled. It is recommended that aggressive investors buy the 2605 contract on dips around 9000 - 9200 points. The option volatility has rebounded significantly from the bottom, and it is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread combination. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 9000 - 9500 points, and the high - level reference range is 9500 - 9700 points [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend reducing long positions. The new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are lower than last year, but the lack of consumption growth drivers has increased. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800 [19]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term buying on dips. The expectation of production reduction may be gradually reflected in the far - month contracts. The support range is 9000 - 9300, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. - **Sugar 2601**: Recommend holding short positions. The increase in the number of sugar mills in India and the new domestic sugar supply are increasing. The support range is 5240 - 5280, and the pressure range is 5400 - 5450 [19]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend a small short position. The futures price has risen above the price of the main delivery products in the spot market, increasing the potential delivery pressure. The support range is 5270 - 5330, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [19]. - **Offset Printing Paper 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. The raw material price fluctuations affect the offset printing paper price from the cost side, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price may operate within a range. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4300 - 4400 [19]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend buying on dips. The macro - economic sentiment boosts the market, but the supply - demand situation has limited changes, and the futures price is expected to continue to operate in a low - level range. The support range is 13300 - 13400, and the pressure range is 14000 - 14200 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples decreased year - on - year due to the delayed listing of new - season apples. As of December 4, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The spot price in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces remained stable, and the sales in the sales area were average [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: As of last week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The acquisition progress in Xinjiang has accelerated, and the order signing volume has increased significantly [23]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 crushing season, 7 less than last year; 26 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 9 more than last year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in November decreased by 2.59% year - on - year [25]. - **Pulp Market**: In October 2025, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased year - on - year, and the shipments to China also decreased. Some pulp mills have shut down or will shut down, which has improved the market sentiment, but the current supply of softwood pulp is not tight [27]. - **Offset Printing Paper Market**: The inventory days of offset printing paper increased by 0.41% week - on - week, and the increase rate narrowed. The start - up load rate increased by 1.53 percentage points, and the overall inventory pressure continued to increase [28]. - **Cotton Market**: In August 2025, the EU's clothing import volume increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The estimated cotton production in Xinjiang and the whole country in 2025 increased by 12.0% year - on - year. The cotton sowing area in Argentina has reached at least 60%, and the sowing progress is expected to accelerate. The cotton imports of Vietnam and Turkey in November and October respectively decreased year - on - year. The processing progress of Brazilian cotton in 25 reached 82% by early December, and the production in 2026 is expected to decrease by about 7% year - on - year [29][30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing price of Apple 2605 was 9510, up 45 or 0.48%; Jujube 2601 was 9180, down 55 or - 0.60%; Sugar 2601 was 5328, down 15 or - 0.28%; Pulp 2511 was 5432, down 20 or - 0.37%; Cotton 2601 was 13780, up 40 or 0.29% [30]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 month - on - month and down 5.30 year - on - year; sugar was 5370 yuan/ton, down 40 month - on - month and down 700 year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 700 year - on - year; offset printing paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 450 year - on - year; cotton was 15004 yuan/ton, up 5 month - on - month and down 100 year - on - year [37]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main contract basis, Sugar main - continuous basis, Pulp main - continuous basis, Cotton 1 - month basis) are mentioned [53][54][56][57][60]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 1 - 5 spread is 108, up 28 month - on - month and up 334 year - on - year, expected to oscillate and decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [59]. - **Jujube**: The 9 - 1 spread is 415, up 380 month - on - month and up 145 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [59]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 spread is 103, up 7 month - on - month and up 66 year - on - year, expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [59]. - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 spread is 20, up 5 month - on - month and up 60 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, net long and short positions of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton) are mentioned [66][68][72][76][78][80][88]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Apple**: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - **Jujube**: The number of warehouse receipts is 850, an increase of 164 month - on - month and 790 year - on - year [89]. - **Sugar**: The number of warehouse receipts is 396, an increase of 215 month - on - month and a decrease of 3233 year - on - year [89]. - **Pulp**: The number of warehouse receipts is 199506, a decrease of 3608 month - on - month and a decrease of 163196 year - on - year [89]. - **Cotton**: The number of warehouse receipts is 2970, an increase of 221 month - on - month and 2004 year - on - year [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility of apples, sugar, and cotton) are mentioned [92][96][102].

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农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月09日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块日度 ...

期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月09日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 铜： 市场预计美联储12月鹰派降息，风险资产日间集体下挫，沪铜短期 承压下行。近期铜金融属性开始显现，金铜比修复。美国总统特朗 普11月24日签署行政令，正式启动代号为"创世使命"的国家级人 工智能计划，打开了市场对未来美国铜需求增长的想象空间。 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 【套利建议】全球第二大铜矿遭遇不可抗力，将改变未来较长时间 的铜供应曲线。美联储开启新一轮降息和扩表周期，铜合约间预计 逐步转向Contango结构。可考虑铜2602和2603合约间的反套机会 【期权建议】 期权策略上可考虑买入近月轻度虚值看涨期权。 铝产业链： 成文时间：2025年12月06日星期六 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属周度策略 Metal Futures Weekly St ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | 从业资格证号： F03095512 投资咨询证号： Z0020712 联系方式： 18001936153 投资咨询证号： Z0017427 作者： 王亮亮 从业资格证号： F03096306 联系方式： 010-68578697 作者： 辛旋 从业资格证号： F3064981 投资咨询证号： Z0016876 联系方式： -- 作者： 汤冰华 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月04日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 双胶纸： 供应递增，糖价继续承压运行，单边考虑继续持空为主，另可考虑 卖出看涨期权策略继续持有。SR2601合约支撑位关注5300-5330 ，压力位关注5450-5500； 纸浆： 【市场逻 ...

| 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月03日星期三 农产品团队 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆二、豆粕：周三，美盘偏强运行，大商所豆粕及豆二继续震荡调 整。美豆对华出口放缓，CBOT大豆走势疲软。目前我国豆类供应 较为充足，短期上涨驱动预计不足。 ...