Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil futures rose during the day due to the exhaustion of Argentina's export tax - free quota and the news of potential US support for Argentina's currency swap. With sufficient domestic supply and weak market confidence in the "strong expectation," the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to temporarily observe the Y2601 contract, with support at 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton and resistance at 8330 - 8350 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. Although imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially make up for the supply, the trade policy of Canadian rapeseed remains uncertain. If imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 9655 - 9698 and resistance at 10300 - 10333 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.26 - 7.89% month - on - month, and from 1 - 25, exports increased by 11.3 - 12.9% month - on - month. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to B45 before moving to B50. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with support at 8900 - 8910 and resistance at 9570 - 9590 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The exhaustion of Argentina's export tax - free quota and the uncertainty of supply policies have led to price fluctuations. The domestic supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended that aggressive strategies consider going long with a light position, while conservative strategies consider temporary observation [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the short term, the CBOT corn futures price is expected to remain in a low - level range. The domestic market is mainly a game between low channel inventory and the new season's listing rhythm. It is recommended to consider selling wide - straddle option combinations or out - of - the - money call options [7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price rebounded with Bean No. 2, but its fundamentals changed little. The new domestic soybeans are gradually being listed, and the supply is increasing, which restricts the price increase [8]. - **Peanuts**: The new season's peanuts are expected to have an increased yield and lower production costs. As the listing volume gradually increases, there is supply pressure on the spot and futures prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Hogs**: The futures price of hogs fluctuated and bottomed out. The current market is affected by factors such as feed prices and production capacity reduction expectations. It is recommended that cautious investors hold long - short spreads, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2601 contract after the production capacity reduction is confirmed [10]. - **Eggs**: The futures price of eggs rebounded with reduced positions. After a continuous decline, the spot price rebounded slightly in September. It is recommended that cautious investors avoid short - selling, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis** - **Oilseeds**: Products such as Bean No. 1, Bean No. 2, and peanuts are expected to have a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to temporarily observe [13]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil is expected to decline with fluctuations, while rapeseed oil is expected to be slightly stronger, and palm oil is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe soybean oil and palm oil, and go long on rapeseed oil with a light position [13]. - **Proteins**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to observe [13]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to face pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - **Livestock**: Hogs are expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and eggs are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe hogs and go long on eggs at a low price [13]. - **Commodity Arbitrage** - For most varieties, it is recommended to observe, while for hogs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1, it is recommended to conduct long - short spreads at a low price [15]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies** - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [16]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Daily Data**: It includes the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. - **Feed** - **Daily Data**: It provides the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. - **Livestock** - **Daily Data**: It provides the daily data of hogs and eggs, including prices, price changes, and cost - profit data [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of hogs and eggs, including prices, production costs, profits, and slaughter data [23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Hogs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices of hogs and eggs, as well as related price charts such as piglets and white - striped pork [26]. - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Palm Oil**: It includes charts of production, exports, inventory, and other aspects of Malaysian palm oil, as well as domestic palm oil inventory and trading volume [36]. - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operating rate, and inventory [43]. - **Peanuts**: It includes charts of peanut arrival, shipment, processing profit, and inventory [52]. - **Feed** - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [58]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch futures and spot prices, operating rate, and inventory [65]. - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, inventory, and processing profit [69]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes charts of US soybean growth indicators, soybean and soybean meal inventory, and basis [75]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility of products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest of corn [93]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of warehouse receipts of products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [96].

期货研究院 新能源产业链日度策略 New Energy Industry Chain Daily Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月25日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周四SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格73678元/吨，环比上 一工作日下降106元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.31-7.44万元/吨，均价7. 375万元/吨，环比上一工作日下降100元/吨；工业级碳酸锂7.09- 7.21万元/吨，均价7.15万元/吨，环比上一工作日下降100元/吨。 碳酸锂期货价格延续震荡走势，主力合约处 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global copper supply - demand structure will be further tightened due to the accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, and with the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and the expansion of the US manufacturing industry, copper prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [4][13]. - Zinc shows a range - bound trend. Although there are some improvements in the supply side, the demand in the peak season is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to whether the export window opens, and it is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips [5][13]. - The aluminum industry chain presents a mixed situation. Aluminum is slightly bullish but it is recommended to wait and see; alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cast aluminum alloy can be short - term bullish [6][14]. - Tin is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and a short - term bullish strategy is recommended, while paying attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts [7]. - Lead shows a range - bound upward movement. With the increase in supply after the end of maintenance and the existence of pre - holiday stocking demand, it is recommended to close long positions on rallies [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices fluctuate repeatedly. Nickel is affected by mine - end disturbances, and stainless steel is supported by cost. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips for both [10][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Logic - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest rate cuts. Further economic data changes need to be monitored to see if it can confirm the preventive interest rate cuts and their effectiveness, which will be beneficial to the later trend of non - ferrous metals [11]. - The US announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, reducing the tariff on EU cars to 15% starting from August 1st. - The preliminary values of the Eurozone's September manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs showed mixed performance. The US September Markit manufacturing and service PMIs declined but remained in the expansion range, with prices easing. - China's one - year and five - year LPRs in September remained unchanged. The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to an independent stance, taking into account both domestic and foreign factors, and is currently supportive and moderately loose [11]. 3.2 Metal - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - An accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine has suspended production, and the company expects a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026. The earliest recovery to pre - accident production levels will be in 2027. - In the medium - to long - term, the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and the expansion of the US manufacturing industry are positive for copper prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a short - term support range of 80,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 83,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton. An option strategy of selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options can be considered [4][13]. 3.2.2 Zinc - Zinc shows a range - bound trend. The supply increase is gradually materializing, and the demand in the peak season is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to whether the export window opens. The support range is 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips [5][13]. 3.2.3 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: Slightly bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 20,200 - 20,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21,300 - 21,700 yuan/ton. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The support range is 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 3,500 - 3,700 yuan/ton. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Short - term bullish. The support range is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton [6][14]. 3.2.4 Tin - In a situation of weak supply and demand, with tight supply due to issues such as ore shortages and delayed production resumption in Myanmar. The demand recovery is limited. It is recommended to be short - term bullish, with a support range of 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [7][14]. 3.2.5 Lead - With the end of maintenance, the supply of primary lead will increase. There is pre - holiday stocking demand, but the upward momentum is limited. It is recommended to close long positions on rallies, with a support range of 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,400 - 17,500 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: Affected by mine - end disturbances in Indonesia, prices fluctuate repeatedly. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, with a slowdown in inventory reduction. It shows a range - bound trend, with a support range of 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton [10][17]. 3.3 Market Performance - **Futures Closing Prices**: Copper closed at 79,960 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase; zinc at 21,860 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; aluminum at 20,705 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; etc. [18]. - **Spot Prices**: The Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price was 80,130 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price was 21,810 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease; etc. [21][23]. 3.4 Position Analysis - For different non - ferrous metal futures contracts such as沪铜 (CU2511),氧化铝 (AO2601),沪镍 (NI2511), etc., the net long - short positions, their changes, and influencing factors are presented. For example, in沪铜 (CU2511), the main short positions are relatively strong, and the net long - short position difference is - 718, with an increase in long - position main forces [20]. 3.5 Industry Chain and Other Analysis - The report also provides various charts related to the non - ferrous metal industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price comparisons, and arbitrage, option - related data for different metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, etc. For example, charts of copper inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fee changes, and copper option historical volatility are provided [25][28][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, with two more rate - cut expectations this year, and the US dollar index still has room to decline. The current expansion of the US manufacturing industry may be a preventive rate cut, which is positive for copper prices. Although there is a continuous accumulation of domestic social copper inventories, downstream demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, and it is recommended to go long on copper at low prices. [4] - Zinc is in a weak and volatile consolidation. The pressure level is adjusted downwards, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the improvement of demand. [5] - The aluminum industry chain shows a sideways - oscillating trend. It is recommended to reduce short positions in aluminum, and maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds for alumina. For recycled aluminum alloy, it is also recommended to reduce short positions. [6] - Tin has a weak supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to take a short - long approach and pay attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts. [7] - Lead has recently seen a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, but the upward momentum has weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high prices and consider an option double - selling strategy. [9] - For nickel and stainless steel, the impact of disturbances at the Indonesian ore end is limited. Nickel is in a volatile state, and stainless steel is in a narrow - range consolidation. It is recommended to pay attention to supply - demand changes and macro - resonance. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of rate - cut cycles. The market should continue to focus on economic data changes. The dollar has rebounded, and non - ferrous metals show volatility. Before the holiday, the demand for hedging and capital withdrawal in the market has increased, and the support from pre - holiday stockpiling for non - ferrous metals is weakening. [13] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: It is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The support range is 79000 - 80000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 81000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [4][15] - **Zinc**: It will fluctuate within a range. The support range is 21800 - 22000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see. [5][15] - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: It will oscillate and consolidate. The support range is 20200 - 20500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21300 - 21700 yuan/ton. It is recommended to reduce short positions. - **Alumina**: It will be weak in oscillation. The support range is 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 3500 - 3700 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: It will be strong in oscillation. The support range is 20000 - 20300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 20800 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to reduce short positions. [6][15] - **Tin**: It will oscillate within a range. The support range is 260000 - 265000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 280000 - 290000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or take a short - long approach. [7][16] - **Lead**: It will fluctuate upwards in a range. The support range is 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 17400 - 17500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [9][17] - **Nickel**: It is expected to rise. The support range is 118000 - 120000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 124000 - 125000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices in stages. [10][17] - **Stainless Steel**: It will oscillate and be bullish. The support range is 12700 - 12800 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 13000 - 13200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [10][17] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented in the table. For example, copper closed at 79960 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase, and zinc closed at 21860 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. [18] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors for different varieties such as polysilicon, gold, and industrial silicon. [20] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, etc. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80130 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. [23] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal are presented, such as copper inventory changes, zinc inventory and processing fee changes, and aluminum inventory and price comparison charts. [24][27][30] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts for arbitrage analysis of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including copper's Shanghai - London ratio changes, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio changes, and the basis and spread analysis of other metals. [58][60][62] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts for option analysis of non - ferrous metals are presented, including copper's option historical volatility, zinc's option weighted implied volatility, and option trading volume and open - interest analysis of other metals. [76][79][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - **Soybean Oil**: The intraday soybean oil futures price dropped significantly due to Argentina's decision to cancel export taxes on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil before October 31. With sufficient domestic supply and the fermentation of negative news, the price has a technical breakdown. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the near term. The Y2601 contract is recommended for temporary observation, with support at 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton and resistance at 8330 - 8350 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may reduce Canadian rapeseed purchases. Russian/Dubai rapeseed oil and Australian rapeseed imports can partially compensate. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 9655 - 9698 and resistance at 10300 - 10333 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives brings cost - side negatives. Combined with phased sales pressure, the oil and oilseed sector has a need for a bearish adjustment. Although Malaysian palm oil production in September 1 - 20 decreased, exports increased, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel. It is expected to have a bearish adjustment, with support at 8756 - 8800 and resistance at 9570 - 9590 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: Due to Argentina's cancellation of export taxes and potential delays in biofuel rules, with high domestic inventories and negative news, the prices are expected to be weak in the near term. It is recommended to exit long positions in the main contracts [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: With the expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production, the price of rapeseed at the origin is under pressure. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed meal may have a de - stocking expectation. It is expected to have a bearish adjustment, with support at 2300 - 2365 and resistance at 2552 - 2572 [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is in a game between low - channel inventory procurement enthusiasm and seasonal pressure. The 11 - contract is expected to continue to find the bottom. Options strategies such as selling wide - straddle combinations or out - of - the - money call options are recommended [7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: With the new domestic soybeans gradually coming onto the market and Argentina's export tax cancellation, the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions, with resistance at 3950 - 4000 yuan/ton and support at 3800 - 3830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Peanut**: With an expected increase in production and a decrease in planting costs, there is seasonal supply pressure. However, the futures price has partially reflected the increase in production, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking has boosted demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7500 - 7510 and resistance at 8020 - 8162 [9]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price is in a process of finding the bottom. It is recommended to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then consider buying at low prices. Cautious investors can hold long - short spreads, and it is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading [10]. - **Egg**: The futures price has fallen below historical lows. It is not recommended to chase short positions. Cautious investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider buying the 2511 contract at low prices, with a reference range of 3000 - 3200 points [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 1. Market Judgment - Various varieties in the feed, livestock, and oil sectors are analyzed, including their market logic (supply - demand), support and resistance levels, market trends, and reference strategies. For example, the soybean No. 1 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate bearishly, and it is recommended to hold short positions [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - Cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage strategies for different sectors are provided, including reference strategies and target levels. For example, for the 01 - contract soybean oil - palm oil spread, a bearish operation is recommended [15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - Spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of different varieties in each sector are presented [16]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oil and Oilseed - **Daily Data**: Import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods are provided, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [17]. - **Weekly Data**: Inventory and operating rates of various oil and oilseed products are given, such as soybean port inventory, soybean meal factory inventory, etc. [19]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are presented [19]. - **Weekly Data**: Consumption, inventory, operating rates, and other data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are provided [20]. 3. Livestock - **Daily Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and other data of live pigs and eggs in different regions are given [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: Key weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, inventory, and sales, are provided [23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: Charts show the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices and chicken fry prices [28][29]. - **Oil and Oilseed**: - **Palm Oil**: Charts display Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import profits, and domestic inventory and trading volume [37][38]. - **Soybean Oil**: Charts show US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operating rates, and inventory [45][46]. - **Peanut**: Charts present peanut arrival and shipment volumes, processing profits, and inventory [54][57]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Charts show corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profits [60][64]. - **Corn Starch**: Charts display corn starch futures and spot prices, operating rates, and inventory [67][68]. - **Rapeseed**: Charts show rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, inventory, and basis [70][74]. - **Soybean Meal**: Charts present US soybean growth indicators, domestic inventory, basis, and spreads [77][89]. Fourth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Options Situation - Charts show the historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [92][93]. Fifth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Warehouse Receipt Situation - Charts display the warehouse receipt situations of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, as well as the futures warehouse receipt volume and open interest of corn, live pigs, and eggs [95][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, and the continued improvement of US manufacturing data is favorable for non - ferrous metals in the long - term. However, after the interest - rate cut is implemented, there will be a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market conditions and investment strategies. For example, copper is recommended to go long on dips; zinc can be moderately long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short; tin short - term long positions can be appropriately taken profit; lead can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel can be long on dips [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest - rate cut cycles. China's one - year and five - year LPR in September remained unchanged. China's central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy and implements a moderately loose monetary policy. After the interest - rate cut, there was a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - **This Week's Focus**: The release of August PCE and September European and American manufacturing PMIs, intensive speeches by Fed officials including Powell, the release of China's September LPR, and the participation of Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, and Li Yunze in the "14th Five - Year Plan" series of press conferences [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Strategies**: Different non - ferrous metals have different operation logics, support and pressure areas, market judgments, and investment strategies. For example, copper is expected to strengthen in shock and is recommended to go long on dips; zinc will fluctuate in a range and can be long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is expected to be weak and is recommended to be short; tin will rebound in shock and short - term long positions can be reduced; lead will fluctuate upward and can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be long on dips [13][14][15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80160 with a 0.31% increase; zinc closed at 22090 with a 0.20% increase; aluminum closed at 20745 with a 0.24% decrease, etc. [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as silver, gold, tin, copper, etc. [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80340 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 21960 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease, etc. [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are graphs of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes; for zinc, there are graphs of zinc inventory changes and zinc concentrate processing fee changes [23][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage Graphs related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are presented, including changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, basis spreads, and price differences between different varieties. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper Shanghai - London ratio changes and the basis spread between Shanghai copper and London copper [56]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options Graphs related to non - ferrous metal options are presented, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest changes. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility [72].

期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告 摘要 农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月22日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 阔叶浆提涨外加针叶浆价格处于成本线附近，对短期价格或有所支 撑，不过上涨驱动还不明朗，需要验证成品纸旺季成色，向上高度 谨慎 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is experiencing strong supply and demand, with the intensity of demand determining the height of the market. News and international macro factors are disturbing the market, and upstream and downstream enterprises should seize the opportunity for futures buying and selling hedging according to their risk management needs [5]. - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. The high - inventory pressure still exists, and the weakening of the downstream polysilicon market may lead to negative impacts. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices [6]. - The previous rise of polysilicon was mainly supported by policy expectations, but the policies and production cuts have not been implemented. The supply - demand pattern has deteriorated due to the increasing supply pressure. The new energy consumption standard may improve the future supply - demand pattern, and the market is easily affected by news [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is driven by news, with wide - range fluctuations. The upstream should seize the opportunity to sell and hedge when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to low - price purchases. The support level is 68000 - 70000, and the pressure level is 80000 - 82000 [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weak reality restricts the upward height of the market. There is limited upward space, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. The support level is 8200 - 8300, and the pressure level is 9200 - 9300 [15]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations have not been fulfilled, and concerns about weak demand are increasing. The market is oscillating weakly, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. The support level is 48000 - 49000, and the pressure level is 53000 - 54000 [15]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are no good arbitrage opportunities recently [15]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 73420 | - 0.73% | 396645 | 271624 | - 9640 | 38909 | | Industrial Silicon | 8950 | - 3.82% | 586687 | 285490 | - 25607 | 49802 | | Polysilicon | 50990 | - 3.63% | 253135 | 123917 | 8068 | 7870 | [15] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium reached a record high of 20363 tons. All lithium extraction processes showed an increase in production. The total inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137531 tons, but still remained at a high level. The inventory of lithium salt enterprises continued to transfer downstream, and the downstream inventory reached a new high [5]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly apparent demand for lithium salts was 21344 tons, remaining at a recent high. The available days of full - caliber sample inventory were basically the same as last week [5]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. There are rumors of production cuts in the southwest region, but the authenticity needs to be verified [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: The downstream polysilicon market has shown weakness recently, and there is a possibility of negative impacts spreading upwards [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The previous rise was based on policy expectations, but these policies and production cuts have not been implemented. The supply pressure has increased, and the supply - demand pattern has deteriorated [8]. - **Downstream Situation**: The market is affected by "anti - involution" sentiment, and the new energy consumption standard may improve the future supply - demand pattern. The market is easily influenced by rumors [9].

期货研究院 新能源产业链周度策略 New Energy Industry Chain Weekly Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月20日星期六 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格73534元/吨，环比上一工 作日上涨70元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.27-7.43万元/吨，均价7.35万元 /吨，环比上一工作日上涨50元/吨；工业级碳酸锂7.065-7.185万 元/吨，均价7.125万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨50元/吨，现货成 交价格持续震荡上行态势。当前正值行业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: International and domestic sugar markets face multiple bearish factors. International factors include a significant narrowing of the sugar production gap in Brazil's 2025/26 season, Indonesia's suspension of sugar imports, and India's approval of sugar exports. Domestic factors include high sugar imports in August, the transition between old and new seasons, and a slowdown in domestic sugar sales. The future trend of domestic sugar prices depends on the performance of the international raw sugar market [3]. - **Pulp**: Overseas broadleaf pulp is strong, driving up domestic broadleaf pulp prices, but the impact on softwood pulp is limited. The demand for pulp is supported by the peak season of finished paper, and the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated supply pressure. However, the fundamentals lack obvious positive factors, and the upward potential of pulp prices is still uncertain [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper has remained stable recently, and the high basis provides some support for the futures price. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward driving force is not clear. The price increase of wood pulp provides some cost support, but the upward space may be limited before the supply further decreases [6]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market is under pressure from the steady listing of cotton in the Southern Hemisphere, the US tariff policy, and the progress of cotton harvesting in the US. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and India's extension of the import tariff exemption provide some support. The domestic cotton market is in a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and the futures price may be weak [8]. - **Apples**: The futures price has fluctuated recently. The increase in the supply of early - maturing apples and the decline in prices have weakened the support for the futures price. The main logic of the apple market is the expected difference in the new season's harvest, and the futures price is expected to remain within a range [9]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube index has been weakly oscillating. The increase in warehouse receipts has increased the delivery pressure, but the inventory has been gradually depleted, and the spot price has rebounded seasonally. The futures price of the 2601 contract has fluctuated, and investors can consider corresponding trading strategies [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7700 - 7800 and a pressure range of 8400 - 8500. For Jujube 2601, take profit on long positions at high prices, with a support range of 11000 - 11500 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, be cautiously bearish, with a support range of 5430 - 5450 and a pressure range of 5560 - 5580. For Pulp 2511, adopt a range - shorting strategy, with a support range of 4900 - 4950 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Offset Paper 2601, be bearish on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4350 - 4400. For Cotton 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14200 - 14300 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 8329 | 33 | 0.40 | | Jujube 2601 | 11155 | 155 | 1.41 | | Sugar 2601 | 5540 | 17 | 0.31 | | Pulp 2511 | 4990 | - 72 | - 1.42 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4224 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13860 | - 140 | - 1.00 | [21] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.20 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5830 | - 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5650 | 0 | - 400 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15283 | - 36 | 278 | [28] 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the basis of each variety are mentioned, including Apple 1 - month basis, Jujube main - contract basis, Sugar main - contract basis, Pulp main - contract basis, and Cotton 1 - month basis [37][40][41]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the inter - month spreads of each variety are mentioned, such as Apple 10 - 1 spread, Apple 1 - 5 spread, Jujube 1/5 spread, Jujube 5/9 spread, Sugar 5 - 9 spread, Sugar 9 - 1 spread, Cotton 9 - 1 spread, and Cotton 1 - 5 spread [45][47][50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8430 | - 231 | 2457 | | Sugar | 10364 | - 265 | - 3138 | | Pulp | 244641 | 0 | - 240079 | | Cotton | 4232 | - 206 | - 2706 | [51] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - Related Data 3.6.1 Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | The price of early - maturing apples has declined steadily, and the difference in acceptance value continues. The short - term futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increase and concentrated listing | Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Both the domestic and international fundamentals are bearish, and the supply pressure has increased | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The market is in a long - short game, and the short - term futures price fluctuates and consolidates | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamental upward driving force is not strong | Sell a put option with a strike price of 4900 and a call option with a strike price of 5300 | [52] 3.6.2 Option Data of Each Variety - **Apple Option Data**: Figures related to apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [53]. - **Sugar Option Data**: Figures related to sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility are provided [55]. - **Cotton Option Data**: Figures related to cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apples - **Production Area Weather**: Figures related to the minimum temperature and precipitation in apple - producing areas such as Yantai, Shandong, and Xianyang, Shaanxi, are provided [64]. - **Export Situation**: Figures related to the monthly export volume of apples are provided [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: Figures related to China's weekly apple storage inventory, as well as the weekly storage inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces, are provided [67]. 3.7.2 Jujubes Figures related to the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei provinces, as well as the daily arrival volume of jujubes in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, are provided [70]. 3.7.3 Sugar Figures related to the national industrial sugar inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures difference of sugar are provided [72][74][76]. 3.7.4 Pulp Figures related to the inventory of pulp in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood pulp inventory days, the weekly production of various types of paper, the import volume of broadleaf and softwood pulp, and the market prices of various types of paper are provided [80][82][86]. 3.7.5 Offset Paper Figures related to the capacity utilization rate, weekly production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper are provided [88]. 3.7.6 Cotton Figures related to the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, monthly import volume, clothing retail sales, export volume, and the production and profit data of the textile industry are provided [90][91][98].