Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Due to the unchanged overall supply - demand pattern, plastics are expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the near term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 18, the restart of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou's HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price has limited increase due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the adjustment of the global oil supply from shortage to surplus by OPEC. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, its performance is not as expected, the downstream operating rate has declined, and the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, which will affect the subsequent market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2601 contract decreased by 0.95% with increased positions, closing at 6785 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 6049 lots to 548344 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7020 - 7990 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 18, the restart of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou's HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 88%, which is at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $735/ton week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to experience weak and volatile trends as the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged despite previous price rebounds driven by cost increases and the downstream peak season [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the downstream plastic weaving开工率 for the main拉丝 product decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On November 18th, new maintenance devices such as the single - line of Yuntianhua were added, causing the PP enterprise开工率 to drop to around 82%, a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard - grade拉丝 remained around 24% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and crude oil prices rebounded after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become more widely recognized, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1] - A new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. The downstream is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] - There is no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in a volatile manner with increased positions. The lowest price was 6,475 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,488 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,392 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.13%. The open interest increased by 5,494 lots to 638,372 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The price of拉丝 was reported at 6,240 - 6,580 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 18th, new maintenance devices such as the single - line of Yuntianhua were added, and the PP enterprise开工率 dropped to around 82%, a moderately low level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending November 14th, the PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the downstream plastic weaving开工率 for the main拉丝 product decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $730 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend. Factors such as the decrease in PVC and downstream开工率, high inventory, upcoming implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, and the downturn in the real estate market contribute to this situation [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC开工率 has decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has slightly declined. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping duties make traders cautious. The export orders increased last week. The social inventory decreased slightly but remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities are in operation. With the end of maintenance of some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and other factors, PVC is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased by 1.46% to 4520 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest by 107,079 lots to 1,462,620 lots [2]. - On November 18, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4485 yuan/ton. The V2601 contract closed at 4608 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 35 yuan/ton, strengthening by 21 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang are under maintenance. The PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%. New production capacities like Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) are in production at different loads [4]. - On the demand side, from January to October 2025, real estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased significantly year - on - year. The national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, down 14.7% year - on - year. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year - on - year. As of November 16, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% week - on - week but was still at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 13, the PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory is still high [6].

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on November 18, 2025, covering the performance, market overview, and analysis of various domestic futures contracts [3]. Market Performance Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 18, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates and iron ore rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate and BR rubber rose nearly 1%. In terms of declines, coking coal fell nearly 4%, and the container shipping index (European line), coke, Shanghai silver, and double-coated paper fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) main contract fell 0.41%, the SSE 50 (IH) main contract fell 0.23%, the CSI 500 (IC) main contract fell 0.85%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) main contract fell 0.69%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.03%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.06% [6][7]. Capital Flows - As of 15:24 on November 18, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, the CSI 500 2512 had an inflow of 1.722 billion yuan, the CSI 300 2512 had an inflow of 1.254 billion yuan, and the CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 890 million yuan. In terms of outflows, the Shanghai gold 2512 had an outflow of 3.546 billion yuan, the lithium carbonate 2601 had an outflow of 2.323 billion yuan, and the Shanghai copper 2512 had an outflow of 1.474 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. However, as some smelters resume production in October and copper prices rise, production is expected to increase. Scrap copper supply increases to make up for the shortage of copper ore resources. On the demand side, rising copper prices limit downstream consumption, and except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is weak. The probability of a December interest rate cut has dropped significantly, causing market confidence to decline and putting pressure on the market. Copper production is expected to increase, while demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season. Before the probability of a rate cut changes, copper prices will be weakly adjusted [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, showing intraday strength. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 85,050 yuan/ton, also up 1,250 yuan/ton. Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo is expected to resume production after December. In October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 14, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.34% higher than the same period last year. The domestic production of energy - storage batteries in October was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The market is optimistic about energy - storage demand. Lithium carbonate inventory has been decreasing for weeks, and the number of warehouse receipts has dropped significantly. The market sentiment has been boosted, but the potential resumption of Jiaxiaowo's production is a negative factor. The strong demand drives the price to oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as in October and November, and will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in December. The peak demand season has ended, and US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected. US crude oil production has reached a new high. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and India may reduce its imports of Russian oil. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya may disrupt supply. However, the market is worried about demand, and the supply - surplus situation in the crude oil market has become more obvious. The price of crude oil is expected to oscillate weakly [12][13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.0%. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, but road construction is restricted by funds and weather. National shipments decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has slightly increased but remains at a low level. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and demand will weaken further. With the oversupply of crude oil, the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.14 percentage points to 53.28%, still at a relatively low level. The operating rate of the plastic - weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%. On November 18, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 82%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn remained at about 24%. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. Although the crude oil price rebounded after a decline, the increase is limited due to the oversupply of crude oil. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream orders have limited follow - up. PP is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 18, some maintenance devices of plastics restarted, and the operating rate rose to about 88%. As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The peak season of the agricultural film industry is not as good as expected, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. The plastic price is expected to oscillate weakly [17][18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious. Social inventories have slightly decreased but remain high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the PVC industry lacks actual policies. The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened flat and closed low. The spot price in the Shanxi market increased, and the import volume in October decreased year - on - year. Although the Mongolian border will be closed for one day on November 21, the customs clearance volume remains high, and domestic coal production is increasing. Mines and coke enterprises are reducing inventories, while steel mills are increasing inventories. Coke enterprises are facing losses, and their production enthusiasm has decreased. Although steel mill production has increased, the short - term demand for coking coal is pessimistic. Coking coal is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term, but the downside is limited due to upcoming environmental inspections [20][21]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed high, with a strong oscillation. The futures rebound has boosted market sentiment, and downstream agricultural dealers are increasing low - price fertilizer reserves. The supply is still abundant, and production is expected to increase. Coal prices are rising, but the increase is narrowing. Downstream dealers are more active in purchasing, and although the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased due to environmental inspections, it is expected to improve after the inspections end. The cost is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The international urea market has changed, and the price of urea is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited by high daily production [22].

Report Information - Release Date: November 18, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Indicators Production - related Indicators - Overall Asphalt开工率: 29%, down 0.70 from the previous value [1] - Shandong Asphalt开工率: 35.4%, up 6.80 from the previous value [1] - Overall Asphalt产量: 51.400,000 tons, down 3.38% from the previous value [1] - Shandong Asphalt产量: 18.300,000 tons, up 20.39% from the previous value [1] - Road Modified Asphalt开工率: 34%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Waterproof Coil开工率: 33%, down 1.00 from the previous value [1] - Rubber Shoe Material开工率: 24.29%, unchanged from the previous value [1] Profit - related Indicator - Shandong Asphalt毛利: - 612.84 yuan/ton, down 19.67 from the previous value [1] Inventory - related Indicators - Social Inventory: 32.300,000 tons, down 10.77% from the previous value [1] - Factory Inventory: 43.700,000 tons, up 4.55% from the previous value [1] - Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: 14.5%, up 2.84% from the previous value [1] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: 350,000 tons, up 118.75% from the previous value [1] Sales - related Indicator - Large - sample Sales Volume: 36.19%, down 8.35 from the previous value [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: "养殖产业链数据报告 - 玉米、生猪、鸡蛋" [1] - Release Date: November 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents weekly data on the corn, pig, and egg industries, including prices, consumption, inventory, and other key indicators, to reflect the current market situation and trends in the breeding industry chain [2][3][6] Summary by Category Corn - **Price**: The national market average price of corn was 2,245 yuan/ton, up 1.35% week-on-week; the settlement price of the CBOT corn main contract was 444 cents/bushel, up 3.92% week-on-week; the FOB price of corn in the western coastal port area of the United States was 224.61 dollars/ton, up 2.10% week-on-week; the landed duty-paid price was 2,081.92 yuan/ton, up 1.75% week-on-week; the basis of the corn spot main contract was 60 yuan/ton, down 9.09% week-on-week [2] - **Consumption**: The consumption of corn by major deep-processing enterprises was 125.86 million tons, up 0.37% week-on-week [2] - **Inventory**: The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 107.10 million tons, up 4.90% week-on-week; the corn inventory of major deep-processing enterprises was 459.20 million tons, down 1.27% week-on-week [2] Pig - **Price**: The average slaughter price of commercial pigs was 11.49 yuan/kg, down 3.45% week-on-week; the closing price of the pig main contract was 11,695 yuan/ton, down 2.17% week-on-week; the basis of the live pig spot main contract was 146 yuan/ton, up 121.21% week-on-week [3] - **Inventory and Slaughter**: The inventory of commercial pigs in comprehensive farms was 38.4462 million heads, up 0.15% month-on-month; the slaughter volume of 81 sample enterprises was 140,119 heads per day, down 1.27% week-on-week; the fresh sales volume of key slaughter enterprises was 789,319 heads, down 1.41% week-on-week; the cold storage capacity of key slaughter enterprises was 151,830 tons, up 0.55% week-on-week [3] - **Sales**: The slaughter volume of commercial pigs in comprehensive farms was 11.9653 million heads, up 11.85% month-on-month [3] Egg - **Price**: The market price of eggs was 5.83 yuan/kg, up 2.28% week-on-week; the basis of the egg spot main contract was 22 yuan/ton, down 191.67% week-on-week; the price difference between futures and spot was -279 yuan/500 kg, up 78.85% week-on-week [6][7] - **Inventory and Sales**: The number of laying hens in stock was 1.311 billion, down 0.15% month-on-month; the egg shipment volume was 6,186.06 tons, down 1.81% week-on-week; the monthly sales volume in China was 28,090 tons, down 1.65% month-on-month; the sales volume in the main sales areas was 6,501.44 tons, up 0.21% week-on-week; the inventory available days in the production link was 1.15 days, up 3.60% week-on-week; the total export volume was 13,215.79 tons, up 0.72% month-on-month [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 本文资讯内容根据网络，冠通期货编辑整理而成，仅供投资者参考。 发布日期： 2025/11/18 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.20%报 4045.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 1.25%报 50.05 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 0.6 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - This year from January to October, China's national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. In October alone, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. From January to October, national fiscal expenditure was 2.258 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - Since November 18, the Ministry of Commerce has initiated a final review investigation into the anti - dumping and counter -vailing measures on imported n - propanol originating from the United States. During the investigation period, anti - dumping duties of 254.4% - 267.4% and counter -vailing duties of 34.2% - 37.7% will continue to be imposed [2] - On November 18, the actual controllers of multiple silicone companies will gather in Shanghai to discuss "anti - involution". The industry has reached a preliminary consensus on details such as production reduction targets and time, and relevant details are expected to be finalized at this meeting [2] - The European Commission stated that the eurozone economy may expand faster than expected this year and reach or exceed the potential growth rate in 2026 and 2027. However, due to defense spending, debt and deficits will also rise. It is expected that the eurozone GDP will grow by 1.3% this year, higher than the 0.9% forecast in April [2] - India signed its first long - term contract to purchase liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the United States. In 2026, Indian state - owned oil companies will import about 2.2 million tons of LPG from the United States, accounting for about 10% of India's annual imports [2] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, polysilicon, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - In the night - session of commodity futures, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 3.30%, the precious metals sector rose 28.87%, the oilseeds and oils sector rose 9.94%, the non - ferrous metals sector rose 23.66%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.60%, the coal, coke, steel and ore sector rose 12.58%, the energy sector rose 2.87%, the chemical sector rose 11.02%, the grains sector rose 1.18%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 3.98% [3] 4. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.46 | 0.44 | 18.51 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.87 | 0.02 | 12.19 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.65 | - 0.92 | 16.85 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.00 | - 1.30 | 26.37 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.92 | - 2.45 | 13.44 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.71 | 1.84 | 31.53 | | | German DAX | - 1.20 | - 1.54 | 18.49 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.10 | - 3.98 | 26.14 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.24 | - 0.43 | 18.38 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.09 | - 0.18 | - 0.40 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.05 | - 0.15 | - 0.60 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.03 | - 0.06 | - 0.48 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.23 | - 0.30 | 1.66 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.70 | - 1.97 | - 17.03 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.92 | 1.04 | 54.13 | | | LME Copper | - 0.79 | - 1.15 | 22.60 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 3.38 | - 1.50 | 28.67 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.25 | - 0.20 | - 8.25 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 13.70 | 14.29 | [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a supply surplus situation, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly [3] - The supply surplus pattern of crude oil has become more of a consensus, with OPEC adjusting the global oil situation in Q3 2025 from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA predicting that oil demand growth will slow down in Q4 while supply will further increase [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. Production increase will be suspended in Q1 next year, and the next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30th. This will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in Q4 but unexpectedly relieve the supply pressure in Q1 next year [3] - Saudi Aramco comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, being cut by $1.20 per barrel [3] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was less than expected, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. US crude oil production continued to reach a new historical high [3] - The US has changed its attitude towards Russia. The US Treasury Department has sanctioned Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and their subsidiaries, which is expected to limit Russia's crude oil exports. However, Trump has recently stated that he hopes to continue the meeting with Putin in Budapest. India may reach a new tariff agreement with the US and agree to gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have led to a continuous rise in European gasoline and diesel prices. Attention should be paid to Russia's crude oil export situation [3] - The military stand - off between the US and Venezuela has escalated, with the Ford Strike Group arriving in the Caribbean Sea [3] - The end of the consumption peak season, the month - on - month decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and its continuous contraction for eight months have raised market concerns about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and exports from the Middle East are increasing, so the crude oil market remains in a supply surplus pattern [3] Crude Oil Supply - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its crude oil production in September was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 2,842,700 barrels per day. Its production in October 2025 increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,846,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait [14] - OPEC+ crude oil production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day month - on - month compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [14] - US crude oil production in the week of November 7th increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 1,386,200 barrels per day, continuing to reach a new historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 798,000 barrels month - on - month to 410.4 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has increased for 16 consecutive weeks [14] Central Bank Interest Rate Cuts - Logan: It is difficult to support an interest rate cut in December, and it is not appropriate to provide more preventive protection to the labor market through interest rate cuts [18] - Milan: The data supports an interest rate cut, and the Fed should be more dovish [18] - Schmid: Further interest rate cuts may have a lasting impact on inflation; concerns about inflation go far beyond the tariff issue [18] - Former Fed Governor Kugler faced an ethics investigation before resigning [18] Performance of European and American Refined Oil - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe increased by $1 per barrel and $4.5 per barrel respectively, while the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $1 per barrel and $4.5 per barrel respectively [23] US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.605 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the same period last year, and the decline compared to the same period last year has narrowed [29] - The weekly demand for gasoline increased by 1.74% to 9.028 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 8.82 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.56% compared to the same period last year [29] - The weekly demand for diesel increased by 8.30% to 4.018 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 3.789 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the same period last year. The rebound of gasoline and diesel demand drove the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 2.03% month - on - month [29] US Crude Oil Inventory - On the early morning of November 14th, US EIA data showed that as of the week ending November 7th, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.413 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.96 million barrels and 4.01% lower than the five - year average [37] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 945,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.888 million barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 637,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 2.028 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 346,000 barrels [37] - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was less than expected, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase [37] Geopolitical Risks - On the 14th local time, Israeli fighter jets carried out two air strikes on Rafah in southern Gaza [43] - After a two - day suspension, Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed oil loading operations on Sunday [43] - Iranian Foreign Minister: Currently, Iran has no ongoing uranium enrichment activities and no undeclared uranium enrichment facilities [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in a state of weak shock. Factors such as reduced supply, weakened demand, and falling crude oil prices have jointly influenced the market, with the spot price being weak and the futures price showing a weak shock trend [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The asphalt production rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. Some refineries like Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residue oil. It is planned that refineries such as Shandong Shengxing will also switch to residue oil production, and the asphalt production rate will remain low [3][19] - In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year [3] Demand - The start - up rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable last week. The start - up rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 33%, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [3] - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. The infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) from January to October decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [27] - With the continuous decline in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, and subsequent demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited [3] Market Conditions - As of the week of November 14, due to the reduced supply in North China, the national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 31.02% week - on - week to 213,000 tons, at a moderately low level [3][23] - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [3][29] - OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become more widely recognized, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [3] - The forward low - price resources of refineries were released intensively. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has weakened and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price is weak, the market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is in a weak shock [3] - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 27 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [14]