Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The supply and demand of urea are both weak. The market is affected by export quota news and coal cost rebound, showing a short - term upward trend, but operations require caution [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed low on July 4, 2025, with strong intraday consolidation. The market transaction was weakly stable, and downstream was not enthusiastic about taking orders after the price increase. Supply decreased due to temporary production capacity maintenance, with daily output below 200,000 tons. Agricultural demand will end next week, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer factories is mainly for rigid needs. Overall, demand is entering a weak period [1] Futures Market - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,740 yuan/ton, closed at 1,735 yuan/ton, with a gain of +0.12%. The trading volume was 210,822 lots (-11,370 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 194 lots and short positions decreased by 3,259 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot market transaction was weakly stable, and downstream was not enthusiastic about taking orders after the price increase. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mainly in the range of 1,730 - 1,780 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On July 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 500, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Basis - The spot market's mainstream quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract was 75 yuan/ton (+12 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - On July 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 195,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 83.31% [11]

Group 1: Hot News - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill with 218 votes in favor and 214 against. The bill raises the federal government's debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [3] - In June, China's warehousing index was 51%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the expansion range for eight consecutive months. Major sub - indices have rebounded [3] - U.S. non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. After the data release, the market abandoned bets on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80% [3] - OPEC+ has started discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day and will further discuss it in an online meeting this weekend [4] - As of the week of July 3, rebar production increased for the third consecutive week, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2210800 tons, up 1.49%; factory inventory was 1804700 tons, down 2.76%; social inventory was 3647400 tons, up 0.37%; apparent demand was 2248700 tons, up 2.26% [4] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, hot - rolled coil, soybean oil, and PVC [5] - Night - session performance by sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.75%, precious metals 27.92%, oilseeds 12.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.61%, soft commodities 2.82%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.52%, energy 3.05%, chemicals 12.35%, grains 1.11%, agricultural and sideline products 2.81% [5] Group 3: Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 0.49%, and an annual increase of 3.26%. Other indices also had different performance [7] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had their respective daily, monthly, and annual performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had different performance [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility had their respective performance [7]

【冠通研究】 关注下周美国关税情况 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 4 日 【期现行情】 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走午后下挫。美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人超预期，4、5 月合 计上修 1.6 万人，失业率意外降至 4.1%。下周 7 月 9 日，关税豁免推迟期限将至。特朗 普表示，他将于周五开始致函贸易伙伴，设定单边关税税率，各国必须从 8 月 1 日开始 支付关税税率。他补充说："关税范围高至 60%或 70%，低至 10%和 20%。"基本面来 看，供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为- 4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库 存端全球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目 前铜去化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需求增 加，带动表观消费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下游也 多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下房地 产也多拖累，整体需求反馈不佳，只有逢低采购的支撑存在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global financial market, including overnight futures market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various industries. It also provides insights into the performance of different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Key events like policy decisions, trade negotiations, and corporate actions are also covered, which can potentially impact investment decisions [2][6][27]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Futures Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.71% at $3336.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.85% at $37.04 per ounce [2]. - International oil prices dipped slightly, with WTI crude down 0.40% at $67.18 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.32% at $68.89 per barrel [3]. - London base metals closed mixed, with LME nickel up 0.35% at $15355.00 per ton, LME tin up 0.27% at $33805.00 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.55% at $2605.50 per ton, and LME copper down 0.61% at $9951.50 per ton [3]. - CBOT agricultural futures mostly rose, with soybeans up 0.02% at 1048.25 cents per bushel, corn up 0.72% at 421.00 cents per bushel, and wheat down 1.29% at 556.75 cents per bushel [3]. - Most domestic futures contracts advanced, with styrene and iron ore up over 1%, coking coal and caustic soda up nearly 1%. Glass declined nearly 1%, and SC crude rose 0.66% to 507.0 yuan per barrel. Shanghai gold fell 0.40% to 775.68 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.67% to 8926 yuan per kilogram [3]. Important Macroeconomic News - From June 1 - 30, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.032 million units, up 15% year - on - year and 5% month - on - month. Cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.849 million units, up 10% year - on - year [6][34]. - The US initial jobless claims in the week ending June 28 dropped 4000 to 233,000, a six - week low. However, the continued jobless claims in the week ending June 21 remained at a high of 1.964 million [6]. - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than May and market expectations, which may ease the Fed's pressure to cut interest rates [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary warned trade partners that tariffs might rise if no progress was made in trade negotiations [7]. - The US Middle East envoy plans to meet the Iranian foreign minister next week to restart nuclear negotiations [7][41]. - The Fed's Bostic suggested patience before cutting interest rates as inflation may persist and the labor market remains healthy [9]. - Trump may send letters to trade partners on Friday to unilaterally set tariff rates, with July 9 as the negotiation deadline [10]. - The US House of Representatives passed Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of July 3, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in China was 69.085 million heavy boxes, down 0.19% week - on - week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8095 million tons, up 2.30% from Monday [12]. - As of June 27, US natural gas inventories were 2953 billion cubic feet, up 55 billion cubic feet from the previous week, down 5.6% year - on - year, and 6.2% higher than the five - year average [12]. - OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, to be further discussed in an online meeting this weekend [12]. Metal Futures - On July 3, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, down 10,000 tons week - on - week. Social ordinary warehouses had 126,000 tons, down 2000 tons, and social delivery warehouses had 426,000 tons, up 12,000 tons [15]. - Four new lithium mines in Argentina will be put into production in the coming weeks to months, increasing annual production capacity by 79% to 202,000 metric tons equivalent [15]. - A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans to shut down for maintenance for two months, while a plant in Sichuan is operating normally [15]. Black - Series Futures - As of July 3, rebar production increased for the third consecutive week, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased, ending a 16 - week decline. Apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2210800 tons, up 1.49%; factory inventory was 1804700 tons, down 2.76%; social inventory was 3647400 tons, up 0.37%; apparent demand was 2248700 tons, up 2.26% [17]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in China was - 52 yuan/ton this week. Profits varied by region [17]. Agricultural Futures - In the 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season, Yunnan Province crushed 18.063 million tons of sugarcane, up 16.91% from the previous season, and produced 2.4188 million tons of sugar, up 19% [19]. - The ICAC predicts that global cotton production will exceed consumption in 2025/26. Production is expected to be 25.9 million tons, consumption 25.6 million tons, and trade volume to increase from 9.3 million to 9.7 million tons [21]. - As of July 2, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.2059 million tons, up from the previous week [21]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June 2025 is expected to be 1.99 million tons, down 0.24% from May; production is expected to be 1.7 million tons, down 4.04% from May; and exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, up 4.16% from May [21]. - Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports from June 29 to July 5 are expected to increase compared to the previous week [22]. - As of July 1, the percentage of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought decreased compared to the previous week [22]. - US private exporters reported sales of 150,000 tons of corn, 226,000 tons of soybeans, and 195,000 tons of soybean meal [22]. - As of June 26, US soybean export net sales in the 2024/2025 season were 462,000 tons, in line with market expectations [23]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending June 29 increased 47.16% to 173,500 tons, and the commercial inventory was 1.2112 million tons [25]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares rose on Thursday, with consumer electronics and innovative drugs leading the gain. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3461.15, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.9%. Market turnover was 1.33 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.63% to 24069.94, recording five consecutive losses. Southbound funds sold a net 3.048 billion Hong Kong dollars [27]. - Insurance funds have accelerated their pace of stock - market placards. In 2025, the number of placards has reached 18, approaching the 2024 total [27]. - Seven securities firms repurchased 191 million shares worth 2.031 billion yuan in the first half of this year. Analysts expect the valuation of the securities sector to recover [27]. - The China Securities Association announced the list of 12 IPO on - site inspection enterprises in the second batch of 2025 [28]. - The bank convertible bond market is facing a "redemption wave," and about 100 billion yuan of bank convertible bonds may complete conversion this year [30]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will address the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry [31]. - The Ministry of Commerce will promote the healthy development of second - hand car exports and will make a final ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of EU brandy [31]. - The National Medical Products Administration proposed ten key measures to support the innovation of high - end medical devices [31]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched a pilot project for number protection services to prevent telecom fraud [31]. - In June, China's warehousing index was 51%, up 0.5 percentage points from May, indicating expansion [32]. - In June, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.032 million units, with new - energy vehicle sales at 1.071 million units, showing significant growth [34]. - Hubei Jingmen introduced 19 real - estate policies, including promoting spot - housing sales from 2026 [35]. - Beijing plans to regulate "second - hand landlords" by requiring registration for those sub - leasing 10 or more units [35]. Overseas - Biden criticized Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, saying it would harm the public [36]. - Indonesia will sign a $34 billion agreement with the US next week to increase purchases [42]. - Japan's central bank may restart the interest - rate hike cycle as companies agreed to significant pay raises [42]. - The European Central Bank may cut interest rates once this year as inflation risks are more on the downside [43]. - The US technology industry group urges the EU to postpone the implementation of the AI Act [43]. - The UK Prime Minister supports the Finance Minister and reaffirms the fiscal rule of balancing revenue and expenditure by 2029 - 30 [43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02%. Chinese concept stocks had mixed performance [45]. - European stocks also closed higher, with the German DAX up 0.61%, the French CAC40 up 0.21%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.55% [45]. - BlackRock believes that US stocks are the best allocation in the current "risk - on" environment [45]. Commodities - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with gold down and silver up. Geopolitical tensions and Fed policy expectations affect gold prices [46]. - International oil prices dipped slightly due to increased US crude inventories and geopolitical easing. OPEC+ is discussing production increases [46]. - London base metals closed mixed, with aluminum under pressure and a weak supply - demand situation [46]. - Central banks are increasing gold reserves due to the "weaponization" of foreign exchange [48]. Bonds - Domestic bank - bond yields were stable with a slight decline, and the money market was more liquid. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [49]. - Since May, the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds has been booming, with over 419 bonds issued worth over 620 billion yuan [49]. - US bond yields rose due to strong labor - market data, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts decreased [49]. - Japan successfully issued 30 - year bonds, providing some relief to the bond market [50]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Thursday, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up [51]. - The US dollar strengthened as US bond yields rose, and most non - US currencies declined [53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although there are expectations of supply tightening, subsequent production will recover, and demand remains weak. Caution is advised when chasing up [3]. - The price of copper is expected to continue its upward trend, but the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations on the US dollar index will increase price volatility [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise in the September peak - demand season, with short - term upward movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level around 62,000 [10]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but geopolitical risks and the OPEC+ meeting need to be monitored. It is recommended to lightly buy put options [11][12]. - For asphalt, as it enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - PP and plastic are expected to fluctuate at low levels due to factors such as weak downstream demand and inventory pressure [15][16]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at low levels in the near term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. - Soybean meal futures are expected to show a volatile adjustment trend, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and tax bills [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather during the growing season [21]. - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. - The price increase of urea is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Price**: Opened high and closed up more than 3% [3]. - **Supply**: There are expectations of production cuts during the safety month, and the Mongolian coal import port is closed for 5 days. Domestic production and imports have decreased, and mine coking coal inventory has decreased significantly [3]. - **Demand**: Relatively weak and stable. Coke enterprises' profit has decreased, and the iron - water production increase is small. Terminal demand is affected by high temperatures and real - estate policies [3]. Copper - **Price**: Opened low and closed down [5]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper smelting is expected to be tight, but the actual supply is increasing. Global copper inventory is decreasing, with different trends in different regions [5]. - **Demand**: Affected by the copper tariff event, export demand has increased, but terminal demand is weak, and it is mainly supported by low - price purchases [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has increased [10]. - **Supply**: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to supply - side reform, current weekly production is increasing [10]. - **Demand**: The market expects September to be the peak - demand season. The prices of downstream materials have increased, but battery factory demand is relatively stable [10]. Crude Oil - **Geopolitical Situation**: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but geopolitical risks still need to be monitored. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 [11]. - **Supply - Demand**: Entering the seasonal peak - demand season, US crude oil inventory has decreased, and OPEC+ production increase is less than expected [11]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The weekly production is increasing, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased [13]. - **Demand**: As it gradually enters the peak season, the demand in the north is relatively good [13]. - **Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - **Supply**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the restart of some maintenance devices has increased production. The downstream start - up rate has decreased [14][15]. - **Demand**: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [15]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Plastic - **Supply**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has decreased. The downstream start - up rate is at a low level [16]. - **Demand**: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [16]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level in the near term [16]. PVC - **Supply**: The start - up rate has decreased, and social inventory is high [17][18]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and exports are affected by policies [17][18]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. Soybean Meal - **Supply**: Domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and inventory is increasing [19]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is stable, and oil mills have little motivation to support prices [19]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to show a volatile adjustment trend [19]. Soybean Oil - **Supply**: Domestic soybean arrivals are large, and the oil - mill start - up rate is high, resulting in inventory accumulation [21]. - **Demand**: Market reaction to USDA reports is flat, and the peak - production expectation is strong, but weather changes need to be watched out for [21]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to maintain a volatile trend [21]. Rebar - **Supply**: Production is increasing, and supply pressure is rising [22]. - **Demand**: Demand is weak, showing seasonal characteristics [22]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased [22]. - **Cost**: The cost center has moved up, providing support [22]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. Hot - rolled Coil - **Supply**: Production is expected to increase as maintenance impacts decrease [25]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand has seasonal decline, but is relatively resilient [25]. - **Cost**: Furnace material support is strong [25]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. Urea - **Supply**: Production is affected by maintenance, and there are concerns about supply - side reform, but the impact is relatively small [26]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is weak and stable, mainly relying on exports for inventory reduction [26]. - **Recommendation**: The price increase is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26].

板块表现 重点关注 尿素、焦煤、原油、螺纹、PP 夜盘表现 非金属建材, 2.72% 贵金属, 27.38% 油脂油料, 12.18% 煤焦钢矿, 13.44% 能源, 3.14% 化工, 12.38% 谷物, 1.13% 农副产品, 2.90% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 第 1 页，共 3 页 早盘速递 2025/7/3 1、央行近日发文明确，客户单笔或者日累计金额人民币10万元以上（含10万元）现金交易的，贵金属和宝石交易从业机构应当 履行反洗钱义务进行上报，但刷卡消费不受影响。多位专家对此表示，该消息与百姓日常买金关系不大。 2、美国6月ADP就业人数意外减少3.3万人，自2023年3月以来首次负增长，预期为增长 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The international copper market is still in a race with copper tariffs. The tight supply expectation caused by cross - regional flow is the main logic for the upward movement of copper prices. Although the current US employment data is unfavorable and suppresses the copper price, the upward - trending and volatile pattern of copper prices remains unchanged. The follow - up should focus on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, as its impact on the US dollar index will intensify copper price fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, triggering economic recession expectations. On the supply side, as of June 30, 2025, the spot smelting fee was -$43.56 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was -4.35 cents per pound. The supply of copper is still increasing. In terms of inventory, the global copper inventory is being depleted, with LME copper significantly depleted, COMEX copper rapidly accumulating, and domestic copper depletion being relatively slow. On the demand side, affected by the copper tariff event, copper export demand has increased, but the terminal market is weak, and downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and for rigid needs. Except for COMEX copper, inventory depletion in other regions supports the market, and the reduction in imports intensifies the tight domestic supply situation [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the session, and closed down at 80,560. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 1,142 to 142,298 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,251 to 142,218 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 100 yuan per ton, and in South China was 65 yuan per ton. On July 2, 2025, the LME official price was $9,966 per ton, and the spot premium was $79 per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of June 30, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was -$43.56 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.35 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 24,100 tons, a decrease of 994 tons from the previous period. As of June 30, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 61,900 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 94,300 tons, a slight increase of 1,075 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 213,200 short tons, an increase of 1,032 short tons from the previous period [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy low and go long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Strategy Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1]. - In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall and high temperatures [1]. - Last week, the spot price in the northwest region increased slightly, with a large increase in shipments. The national shipments increased by 0.42% to 289,500 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline last week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. The demand in the north is fair [1]. - The intensity of Iran's retaliatory action was less than expected, and Israel and Iran ceased fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Trump announced the termination of the original plan to relax sanctions on Iran [1]. - The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. The Trump administration issued a simplified license to Chevron but prohibited oil production in Venezuela. Trump said the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted the crude oil market sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.25% to 3,588 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,565 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,601 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 5,171 to 222,124 lots [2]. Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,815 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 227 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, facilities such as Zhonghai Binzhou and Wenzhou Zhongyou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly declined compared to January - March 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 0.4%, slightly up from - 0.9% from January to April 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, slightly down from 5.8% from January to April 2025 [4]. - As of the week of June 27, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall [4]. - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate of about 4% (1 percentage point higher than last year), a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan (1.6 trillion yuan more than last year), and a significant increase in various bond issuances [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 27, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 16.0% compared to the week of June 20, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].

【冠通研究】 上涨受阻 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 3 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素盘面高开低走，日内偏强整理。昨日期货翻红后，尿素现货成交 有好转，部分工厂上调报价，但成交量一般。基本面来看，供应端本周继续检 修与复产并行，山西兰花将进行两月左右的检修，河南晋开近日也有检修计 划，日产波动幅度小，近日供给侧改革消息刺激市场对产能产量的担忧，对尿 素影响相对较小，但近期高温临检期间，日产可能有小幅减少。需求端，整体 需求弱稳，农需备货在收尾阶段，复合肥工厂开工负荷维持低位，继续去化库 存为主，目前处于秋季肥前期阶段，内需整体支撑有限。本期库存继续去化， 主要依然依赖于出口的快速集港。整体来看，昨日大宗商品均有不同程度的上 涨，盘面上涨后，现货端更近有限，需求不足，尿素价格上涨受阻，上方关注 1740 左右压力位。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1739 元/吨高开低走，日内偏强震荡，最终 收于 1737 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌+0.4%，持仓量 222192 手（-1691 手）。 前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-1541 手，空头-1993 手。其中，宏源期货净 多单增加 483 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial markets, including the trends of various futures, important macro - economic news, and the performance of different financial sectors. It also provides data on industries such as energy, metals, agriculture, and offers insights into market expectations and industry developments. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International oil prices rose strongly, with the US oil main contract up 3.18% at $67.53 per barrel and Brent crude up 3.00% at $69.12 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold up 0.56% at $3368.7 per ounce and COMEX silver up 1.08% at $36.79 per ounce [3]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME zinc up 1.44% at $2753.00 per ton, LME lead up 1.25% at $2063.50 per ton, and LME copper up 0.77% at $10010.00 per ton [4]. - CBOT agricultural product futures closed higher across the board, with soybeans up 2.00% at 1047.75 cents per bushel, corn up 3.02% at 418.25 cents per bushel, and wheat up 2.91% at 565.00 cents per bushel [4]. - Most domestic futures contracts rose, with glass up over 3%, coking coal up over 2%, and others like iron ore and coke up over 1%. Some contracts like 20 - gauge rubber (NR) and corn declined slightly. SC crude closed up 2.11% at 509.0 yuan per barrel [4]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - In the first half of 2025, the scale of new special bonds issued across the country was about 2.1607 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 44.7%. The scale of local bond issuance was about 5.4902 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 57.2% [7]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability and preventing risks in areas such as bond defaults and private funds [7]. - The People's Bank of China issued a notice on anti - money laundering and anti - terrorist financing management for precious metal and gemstone institutions [7]. - Hamas is studying a new cease - fire agreement draft for the Gaza Strip, while Israel aims to free hostages and eliminate Hamas [8]. - The US Federal Housing Finance Agency called for an investigation into Fed Chairman Powell [8]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 25.3% [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of June 30, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 3.6 million barrels to 19.156 million barrels. Light distillate and medium distillate inventories increased, while heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased [11]. - Goldman Sachs believes that if OPEC + decides to increase production on Sunday, the market may not react strongly. It expects the August production increase to be the last, but there is a risk of further quota increases after August [11]. - As of July 2, China's methanol port inventory was 67.37 million tons, an increase of 0.32 million tons from the previous period. The East China region saw inventory accumulation, while the South China region saw inventory reduction [11]. - As of June 27, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.239 million barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [12]. Metal Futures - Guinea's mining minister announced a series of reforms for the mining industry [14]. - US private - sector employment decreased by 33,000 in June, the largest decline since March 2023 [14]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [15]. Black - Series Futures - Vale lowered its 2025 iron ore pellet production forecast to 31 - 35 million tons from the previous 38 - 42 million tons [17]. - Regarding the rumor of a 30% sintering machine production limit in Tangshan from July 4 - 15, about half of the steel mills said they received the notice, and if implemented, sinter production may decrease by 30,000 tons per day [17]. - On July 2, coal production in Ordos gradually recovered as some previously reduced - production or shut - down mines resumed operations [18]. Agricultural Product Futures - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, while soybean oil imports decreased by 9% to 363,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 18% to 216,000 tons. Total edible oil imports increased by 30% to 1.53 million tons [20][21]. - As of June 27, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory was 8.949 million bushels, a 0.82% decrease from the previous week and a 159.69% increase from the same period last year [21]. - China's soybean purchases for August shipments are almost complete, about 50% for September shipments, and there are no purchases for October - December shipments [22]. Financial Markets Financial - On Wednesday, the A - share market closed lower, with technology stocks falling and resource stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 3454.79 points, and the market turnover was 1.41 trillion yuan [24]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.62% to 24,221.41 points. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$5.036 billion, while Alibaba was net - sold HK$1.734 billion [24]. - In June, A - share new accounts reached 1.65 million, a 5.84% month - on - month increase. In the first half of 2025, A - share new accounts totaled 12.6 million, a 32.77% increase from the same period in 2024 [25]. - In the first half of 2025, the Hong Kong market rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 20% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 18.68%. Southbound funds had a net inflow of HK$731.193 billion, a record high for the same period [27]. Industry - In June, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.8%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [29]. - The financial regulatory authority is seeking opinions on strengthening non - insurance regulation, aiming to address issues such as disguised fee cuts and agency arbitrage [30][31]. - In the 2025 trial evaluation of securities firms' financial "five major articles", Citic Securities, Citic Construction Investment, and Guotai Junan ranked among the top three in multiple key statistics [31]. - The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were officially approved [31]. - In June, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.26 million, a 29% year - on - year increase and a 3% month - on - month increase. From January to June, cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a 38% year - on - year increase [32]. Overseas - The US believes that Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed, and its nuclear program has been postponed by 1 - 2 years [33]. - Twenty US states sued the Trump administration over the sharing of Medicaid patient data for immigration enforcement [35]. - The US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with Vietnam imposing a 20% tariff on US exports and canceling tariffs on US imports [35]. - The EU proposed a revision to the "European Climate Law", aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels [35]. - Australia's retail sales in May increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than market expectations [35]. - South Korea's CPI in June increased by 2.2% year - on - year, higher than market expectations [36]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.02%, the S&P 500 up 0.47% (a new high), and the Nasdaq up 0.94%. Chinese concept stocks also showed mixed performance [37]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.49%, the French CAC40 up 0.99%, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.12% [37]. - The "irrational exuberance index" of US stocks has reached a warning level, raising concerns about a new bubble [39]. - BlackRock's international clients are reducing their investment in the US market and looking for opportunities in other markets [39]. - Due to political and trade risks in Thailand, overseas institutional investors have been net - selling Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a cumulative withdrawal of $3.9 billion [40]. Commodities - International oil prices rose, driven by the US - Vietnam trade agreement and geopolitical tensions [41]. - International precious metal futures rose, supported by the Fed's possible interest - rate cut and weak employment data [41]. - Most London base metals rose, with copper prices fluctuating at a high level due to uncertainty about the Fed's interest - rate cut [41]. - Vale lowered its 2025 iron ore pellet production forecast [43]. Bonds - The domestic bond market continued to perform strongly, with bond yields falling slightly and bond futures rising. The upcoming reduction in treasury bond issuance also boosted market sentiment [44]. - Schroder upgraded its outlook for global corporate bonds from "negative" to "neutral" and maintained an optimistic view on global stocks [44]. - US bond yields rose across the board, affected by the sell - off in the UK bond market [44]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1670 on Wednesday, down 52 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.14% to 96.78, and most non - US currencies declined [45].