地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.85%报 3286.10 美元/盎司， 本周累计下跌 2.94%，COMEX 白银期货跌 2.06%报 36.17 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价微跌，美油主力合约收跌 0.26%报 65.07 美元/桶，周跌 11.88%。 布油主力合约跌 0.52%报 66.34 美元/桶，周跌 12.11%。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌参半，LME 期铜跌 0.21%报 9879.00 美元/吨，周累计 上涨 2.55%；LME 期锡跌 0.55%报 33565.00 美元/吨，周累计上涨 2.7%；LME 期 铝涨 0.45%报 2595.00 美元/吨，周累计上涨 1.78%。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大豆期货涨 0.86%报 1025.25 美分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal is expected to face resistance due to weak terminal demand despite short - term upward support, and short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [3] - The price of crude oil has dropped significantly. Although the supply - demand situation has improved, geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain variable. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [5] - The price of copper is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term, with the subsequent direction guided by the Fed's policy and the implementation of copper tariffs [10] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the short term and remain bearish in the long - term [12] - It is recommended to operate cautiously on asphalt and go long on the 09 - 12 spread on dips [13] - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level [15] - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [16] - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level recently [18] - Soybean oil futures are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [19] - Soybean meal futures are expected to show an oscillating adjustment [21] - Urea is expected to oscillate and consolidate currently, and the subsequent trend depends on export quotas [22] Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Price movement: Opened and closed higher, rising nearly 5% on the day [3] - Spot price: The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was reported at 930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 724 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [3] - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to environmental and safety inspections. Demand was weak. The market sentiment improved, but terminal demand was insufficient. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [3] Crude Oil - Geopolitical situation: Tensions in the Middle East have cooled rapidly, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions. However, uncertainties remain, such as the implementation of the cease - fire agreement and US sanctions [4][5] - Fundamentals: Entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude inventories falling to a low level and OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [5] Copper - Price movement: Opened and closed higher, with an upward breakthrough in the price range [10] - Fundamentals: Supply was still increasing, while global copper inventories were being depleted at different rates. Demand was boosted by export but was weak in the terminal market. It is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Price movement: Opened low and closed high, with an upward - trending price center [11] - Fundamentals: Supply was sufficient, and the price was approaching the cost line. Downstream demand was cautious, but the new energy market sales were good. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the long - term [11][12] Asphalt - Supply: The weekly operating rate increased, and the July production plan increased. Inventories were at a low level [13] - Demand: Downstream operating rates varied, and the national shipment volume increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread on dips [13] PP - Operating rate: Both downstream and enterprise operating rates decreased, and the production ratio of standard products declined [14] - Fundamentals: New production capacity was put into operation, and inventory pressure was high. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15] Plastic - Operating rate: The operating rate increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased, and the overall was at a low level [16] - Fundamentals: New production capacity was put into operation, and demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] PVC - Operating rate: Both upstream and downstream operating rates decreased, and the export situation was complex [17] - Fundamentals: Social inventories increased, and demand was not substantially improved. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18] Soybean Oil - International situation: The weather in the US soybean - producing areas was conducive to production [19] - Domestic situation: The soybean crushing volume was high, and inventories were expected to rise. It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [19] Soybean Meal - International situation: The weather in the US was beneficial to soybean growth [20] - Domestic situation: The soybean crushing volume was high, and inventories were accumulating rapidly. It is expected to show an oscillating adjustment [20][21] Urea - Supply: The daily output was stable, and the supply pressure was relieved by exports [22] - Demand: The new order volume decreased, and the support from compound fertilizer factories was limited. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate [22] Market Overview - As of the close on June 27, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, coking coal rose nearly 5%, and industrial silicon rose more than 4% [7] - In terms of fund flow, funds flowed into contracts such as SHFE copper 2508 and flowed out of contracts such as SHFE gold 2508 [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/27 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油主力合约收涨 0.46%，报 65.22 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.41%，报 66.70 美元/桶。美国原油库存超预期下降支撑油价， 但中东局势缓和限制涨幅。光大期货指出，油价短期或维持区间震荡，需关注 欧佩克+产量政策变化。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.04%报 3341.6 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.22%报 36.55 美元/盎司。美联储内部对降息时机存在 分歧，特朗普政府考虑提前宣布鲍威尔继任人选，引发对美联储独立性的担忧。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线上涨，LME 期锌涨 2.42%报 2770.00 美元/吨，LME 期 铜涨 1.89%报 9896.00 美元/吨，LME 期锡涨 1.86%报 33810.00 美元/吨。美联储 降息预期升温提振金属价格，铜市场表现尤为强劲。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 国家金融监督管理总局、中国人民银行联合发布《银行业保险 ...

4. 马士基周四晚间表示，根据近期的发展情况，并考虑到目前已达成的停火协议，我们预计一旦确认安全风险降低，就有望 重新开启出口货物的接收。阿什杜德港口的运营仍在继续，尽管我们正密切关注局势。 5. 据CNN报道，四位知情人士透露，特朗普政府已讨论可能帮助伊朗获取至多300亿美元资金用于建设民用核能项目、放宽制 裁并解冻数十亿美元被限制的伊朗资金——这些均是其为促使德黑兰重返谈判桌而加大努力的一部分。 早盘速递 2025/6/27 热点资讯 1. 国家金融监督管理总局、中国人民银行联合发布《银行业保险业普惠金融高质量发展实施方案》。《实施方案》明确，未 来五年基本建成高质量综合普惠金融体系，普惠金融促进共同富裕迈上新台阶。普惠金融服务体系持续优化，普惠信贷体系巩 固完善，普惠保险体系逐步健全。 2. 国家发展改革委召开6月份新闻发布会。会上，国家发展改革委政研室副主任李超表示，消费品以旧换新方面，超长期特别 国债的支持力度是3000亿元，前两批一共1620亿元，已经按照计划分别在今年1月份和4月份下达。并将在7月份下达今年第三 批消费品以旧换新资金。 3. 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表视频讲话指出，美国袭击了核设施 ...

制作日期：2025 年 6 月 26 日 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 热点品种 主 要 品主力合约涨跌幅 比率 焦煤： 焦煤今日高开高走，日内日上涨近 4%。现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价格报 价 940 元/吨，较上个交易日持平；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 719/吨，较上个交易日 +1 元/吨。基本面来看，近期焦煤上游洗煤厂及矿山精煤产量下降，受安全环保 检查的影响，焦煤减产的数据减轻了焦煤供需宽松的压力。需求端相对供应压力 的缓解来说表现较弱，焦炭四轮提降后，焦企利润降低开工率下移，但钢厂自用 情况下，焦炭生产暂未收到太大的影响。终端在高温下开工率维持低位，房地产 仍然等待政策的托举。整体来看，前期价格阴跌后，市场情绪受蒙煤消息刺激， 目前盘面上行主要系供应端减量逻辑，但供应端减量不及需求走弱幅度，基本面 宽松，技术上关注 820 元/吨阻力位置，后续关注逢高空机会。 豆粕： 豆粕主力 09 合约今日盘面低开后震荡下跌，收盘跌幅-2.43%。国际方面，最新 气象模型显示，本周美国衣阿华、明尼苏达和威 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Chinese Premier Li Qiang stated on June 25 that China welcomes foreign enterprises to invest and develop in China [1]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei from June 23 - 24 that efforts should be made to build a unified national market, boost domestic demand and consumption, and develop a new model for the real estate industry [1]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations on June 25, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased roll - overs [1]. - Shenzhen issued measures to promote high - quality development of service consumption, including strengthening fiscal and financial support [1]. - US President Trump said on June 25 that the US will hold talks with Iran next week, and he believes the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, but it may resume [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - Chinese government leaders expressed stances on economic development and international cooperation, and the central bank carried out MLF operations [1]. - US President Trump made statements about the situation between Israel and Iran [2]. Key Focus - The report focuses on commodities such as caustic soda, LPG, container shipping index, crude oil, and coking coal [3]. Night - session Performance - Among different commodity sectors, the precious metals sector had the highest increase of 28.40%, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 19.47%, and the coal - coking - steel - mining sector with 13.28% [3]. Category Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Hang Seng Index had a significant annual increase of 22.01%. In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a slight annual increase of 0.06%. In the commodity category, London spot gold had an annual increase of 26.98% [5].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/26 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油涨 0.9%，报 64.94 美元/桶。美国上周 EIA 原油库 存超预期减少 583.6 万桶。光大期货指出，油价短期或维持区间震荡，需关注 欧佩克+产量政策变化。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.37%报 3346.4 美元/盎司， 白银涨 1.35%。美联储拟放宽银行杠杆率要求，同时重申通胀风险，对贵金属 形成双向影响。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锡涨 2.5%，期锌、期镍涨 1%，期铜涨 0.6%。 高盛预计，由于关税导致美国以外市场铜库存减少，以及中国经济活动有韧性， 铜价将在 8 月升至 2025 年高点。 4. 世界钢铁协会发布数据显示，5 月份，全球 70 个纳入统计国家/地区的粗钢 产量为 1.588 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%。中国粗钢产量为 8655 万吨，同比下降 6.9%； 印度粗钢产量为 1350 万吨，同比提高 9.7%。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The urea market is currently in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. Attention should be paid to the export situation of domestic urea [3]. - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have sharply cooled down, greatly alleviating the market's concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [6]. - The copper price is expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger in the near term. However, due to the weakness of the spot market, the premium will weaken, which is expected to drive downstream purchases at low prices. Attention should be paid to the inflation data in the later period [12]. - The upward space of lithium carbonate is limited, and the pattern of oscillation and short - bias remains unchanged [14]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously in the asphalt market and go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [15]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and other products are expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern due to factors such as increased supply, weak demand, and cooling geopolitical risks in the Middle East [17][18][20]. - The rebound amplitude of coking coal may slow down under the easing of geopolitical conflicts [21]. - The price of rebar is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short term due to high supply, pressure on raw materials, and weak demand [23]. - The hot - rolled coil market will still face significant downward pressure, and the price is expected to continue the weak oscillation trend [25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot - Spot Varieties Urea - The urea futures market opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% during the day. The spot market sentiment became high, and the export and port - collection accelerated, increasing enterprise shipments [3]. - On the supply side, some Henan plants had temporary shutdowns, and the daily urea output dropped below 200,000 tons in the short term. On the demand side, the market's enthusiasm for stockpiling increased after the rebound, but the compound fertilizer market was tepid [3]. - The inventory decreased this period, mainly due to the opening of port inspections, which relieved the inventory pressure in the factories [3]. Crude Oil - After the US military's intervention in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, the market was concerned about Iran's retaliatory actions, but the retaliatory actions were weak, and Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire agreement, sharply cooling down the geopolitical risks in the Middle East [4][6]. - Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, the US crude oil inventory has continued to decline to a low level, and OPEC + production increases are less than expected, but the market is currently focused on geopolitical risks in the Middle East [6]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [6]. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on June 25, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Some contracts such as red dates and urea rose by more than 2%, while SC crude oil fell by more than 8% [8]. - The major contracts of stock index futures generally rose, while the major contracts of treasury bond futures showed different trends [8]. Capital Flow - As of 15:16, the main contracts of domestic futures had capital inflows in contracts such as CSI 1000 2509, and outflows in contracts such as Shanghai copper 2507 [10]. Core Views (Commodity - Specific) Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved high, showing a strong oscillation during the day. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran eased geopolitical conflicts, but there was still uncertainty [12]. - On the supply side, the copper supply was still increasing, and the tight - supply expectation in the copper - smelting end was only reflected in the data. On the inventory side, the global copper inventory decreased, but the US copper inventory continued to accumulate rapidly [12]. - On the demand side, the terminal market was relatively weak, and the downstream mainly purchased at low prices and for rigid needs. The copper price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the spot market is weak [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and moved low, showing a slightly strong oscillation. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [14]. - In May 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased, but it was still at a relatively high level. The downstream was still waiting and watching, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The upward space is limited, and the pattern of oscillation and short - bias remains unchanged [14]. Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the June production plan increased. The downstream start - up rates showed mixed trends, and the inventory ratio continued to decline [15]. - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and the asphalt price has fallen sharply with crude oil. It is recommended to operate cautiously and go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [15]. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also declined. The inventory pressure was still large, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern [17]. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The inventory pressure was still large, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern [18]. PVC - The PVC start - up rate decreased, and the downstream start - up rate continued to decline slightly. The export was restricted, and the inventory pressure was still large. It is expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, and then rebounded at the end of the session. The supply pressure was relieved, but the demand also weakened. The futures price is expected to stimulate downstream purchases, but the rebound amplitude may slow down [21]. Rebar - The rebar price fell slightly. The supply was still at a relatively high level, the cost of raw materials was under pressure, the demand was weak in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation pressure was increasing. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern [23]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil price showed a slight decline. The supply pressure was still there, the raw material cost support was limited, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was slowly rising. It is expected to continue the weak oscillation trend [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "oscillating operation" for the plastics industry [1] Core Viewpoint - The plastics market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future due to factors such as increased supply from restarted and newly - commissioned plants, low downstream demand, high inventory pressure, and falling energy prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Recommend to close long positions. The restart of maintenance devices has increased the plastics operating rate to about 87%, reaching a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE has decreased to 38.69%, with a decline in agricultural film orders and a slight increase in packaging film orders. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The US tariff increase and restricted ethane imports, along with the cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and falling oil prices, contribute to the expected low - level oscillation of plastics [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated with reducing positions, closing at 7271 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The trading volume decreased by 12,263 lots to 461,763 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PE spot prices fell, with price changes ranging from - 200 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7260 - 7590 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9580 - 9830 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7700 - 8100 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The restart of maintenance devices in Dushanzi Petrochemical and Tarim Petrochemical has increased the plastics operating rate to about 87%, reaching a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of June 20, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 38.69%. Agricultural film entered the off - season, with a decline in orders and a slight increase in raw material inventory. Packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased to 76.5 tons on Wednesday, 2.5 tons higher than the same period last year. It is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Raw Materials**: Brent crude oil 08 contract fell to $68/barrel. Northeast Asian ethylene prices remained flat at $860/ton, and Southeast Asian ethylene prices remained flat at $850/ton [4]

【冠通研究】 沥青：低开震荡 制作日期：2025年6月25日 单边观望/逢低做多沥青09-12价差 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2509合约下跌1.89%至3574元/吨，5日均线下方，最低价在3537元/吨，最高价 3783元/吨，持仓量减少17999至251579手。 基差方面： 山东地区主流市场价下跌至3750元/吨，沥青09合约基差下跌至176元/吨，处于偏高水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【策略分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.1个百分点至30.4%，较去年同期高了4.7个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，处于近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，6月份地炼预计排产130.9万吨，环 比增加6.5万吨，增幅为5.2%，同比增加37万吨，增幅为39.3%。上周沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现， 其中道路沥青开工环比下降3个百分点至22.6%，仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金制约。上周山 东地区个别炼厂复产，加之原油价格上涨带动交投气氛，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加 5.99%至28.83万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比继续 ...