热点资讯 1.美国总统特朗普表示，计划对不同国家征收从60%到70%、以及从10%到20%不等的关税。各国将于8月1日开始支付这些关税。 2.据澎湃消息，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会，毛宁表示，具体问题建议你向中方的主管部门了解。作为原则，我们希望 美方能够同中方相向而行，以实际行动维护和落实好两国元首通话的重要共识，共同推动中美经贸关系健康稳定可持续发展。 3.商务部新闻发言人表示，中美伦敦经贸会谈后，双方于近期确认了落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈 成果的具体细节。目前，双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果。中方正依法依规审批符合条件的管制物项出口许可申请。 美方也采取相应行动，取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施，有关情况已向中方作了通报。 早盘速递 2025/7/7 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wi ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of international and domestic futures, important macro - economic and industry - related news, and the trends and investment outlooks of financial markets at home and abroad. It also provides information on upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Futures Trends - International precious metal futures rose slightly, with COMEX gold futures up 0.11% at $3346.5 per ounce (weekly gain of 1.79%) and COMEX silver futures up 0.14% at $37.135 per ounce (weekly gain of 2.1%) [2] - International oil prices declined, with the US oil main contract down 0.75% at $66.5 per barrel (weekly gain of 1.5%) and the Brent oil main contract down 0.42% at $68.51 per barrel (weekly gain of 2.56%) [3] - London base metals closed lower, with LME nickel down 1.24% at $15260 per ton (weekly gain of 0.1%), LME copper down 1.03% at $9852 per ton (weekly loss of 0.26%), and LME zinc down 0.55% at $2735.5 per ton (weekly loss of 1.57%) [3] - Most domestic futures main contracts fell, with butadiene rubber down over 2%, 20 - number rubber (NR) down over 1%, and soda ash, rubber, and fuel oil down nearly 1%. Styrene (EB), cotton, rapeseed meal, cotton yarn, and caustic soda rose slightly [3] Important News Macroeconomic News - As of July 4, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 98.02 points compared to the previous period, and the China Export Containerized Freight Composite Index fell 1.9% [5] - Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% - 70% and 10% - 20% on different countries starting August 1 [6] - After the China - US London economic and trade talks, both sides confirmed details of implementing the consensus of the leaders' call on June 5 and consolidating the Geneva talks results. The two teams are accelerating the implementation of relevant results [6] - Maersk estimates that the average effective tariff rate for goods shipped to the US is 21%, lower than the peak of 54% before the US suspended reciprocal tariffs in April [7] - In June, the national futures trading market turnover was 739579418 lots, with a trading volume of 527934.14 billion yuan, up 28.91% and 17.25% year - on - year respectively [7] - The technical part of the China - EU electric vehicle negotiation is basically completed, pending the EU's political will [9] Energy and Chemical Futures - The CSRC approved the registration of propylene futures and options at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and will supervise its preparations [11] - OPEC's oil production increased in June after the production - increase agreement, with Saudi Arabia having the largest increase and Iraq's production below the target. OPEC + agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August [11] Metal Futures - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association requested the government to keep the mining quota validity period at three years [13] - In June, Chile's copper exports were 150,295 tons, and copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,126,625 tons. Shipments to China were 29,990 tons and 809,837 tons respectively [15] - Due to frequent train derailments in South Africa, the manganese ore reserves shipped to China in July decreased [15] Black - Series Futures - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development conducted research in Guangdong and Zhejiang, emphasizing the importance of promoting the stable and high - quality development of the real estate market [17] - In late June 2025, the national daily crude steel output was 2.75 million tons (down 0.9% month - on - month), pig iron output was 2.38 million tons (up 0.3% month - on - month), and steel output was 4.21 million tons (up 1.3% month - on - month) [17] - As of July 4, the total iron ore inventory at 35 ports in China reached 137.13 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons from the previous week [17] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous week [18] - The total urban inventory this week was 7.2366 million tons, up 81,400 tons (1.14%) from the previous week [20] Agricultural Product Futures - In June, the global food price index rose 0.5% month - on - month, and the global grain output in 2025 is expected to reach 2.925 billion tons, up 0.5% from the previous estimate [22] - Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 4.69% [22] - As of the week of July 4, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 119.72 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 26.26 yuan per head [22] - From June 28 to July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, higher than the estimate [22] Financial Market Finance - In 2025, the Hong Kong stock market is booming, with about 200 IPO applications received, double the number at the beginning of the year [24] - The market environment now resembles that at the end of 2014, and sectors like non - ferrous metals, AI hardware, innovative drugs, games, and military industries may be the focus during the interim report season [25] - Many star private equity firms are positive about the stock market in the second half of 2025. They are optimistic about technology - related investment opportunities [25] - Last week, A - shares had a good start in July. The market is expected to fluctuate upwards, and attention is paid to the interim report season [26] - As of July 6, 54 A - share listed companies disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, showing good profitability [26] - As of July 6, 688 listed companies received bank loans for stock repurchase and increase, with a total loan limit exceeding 135.86 billion yuan [26] - Well - known fund managers adjusted their positions in the medical and military sectors in the first half of the year [28] - Huadian New Energy will be subscribed for on July 7, with an expected fundraising of about 15.801 billion yuan [28] Industry - Shenzhen introduced measures to support the semiconductor and integrated circuit industry and set up a 5 - billion - yuan private equity fund [29] - As of now, the national wheat purchase has exceeded 50 million tons, and the expected new - season summer grain purchase is about 100 million tons [29] - As of the end of the first half of the year, the total market value of public REITs exceeded 200 billion yuan, and most products had positive returns [29] - Guangdong issued a guidance on resolving historical issues of real estate registration on state - owned construction land [30] - The Hangzhou Bay Embodied Intelligence Innovation Center was launched, simulating six types of industrial scenarios [31] - Chongqing issued policies to support the high - quality development of the science and technology film and television industry, with subsidies of up to 10 million yuan [31] - In the past month, the prices of the white - feather broiler industry chain have dropped significantly [31] Overseas - The 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit opened in Rio de Janeiro, covering six major topics [32] - Putin proposed building an independent settlement and custody system and expanding local - currency settlement within BRICS [32] - Musk said his new party will participate in elections next year [33] - South Korea's special inspection team requested the court to detain former President Yoon Suk - yeol [35] - In June, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight economic recovery [35] International Stock Markets - CFRA Research raised the target price of the S&P 500 index, expecting it to reach 6850 points in 12 months [36] - US stock funds had a net inflow of $31.6 billion last week, but Bank of America warns of a bubble risk in the US stock market [36] - After Musk announced the new party, Azoria postponed the listing of its Tesla ETF [36] - Jane Street Group was banned from the Indian market, and 48.4 billion Indian rupees (about 4 billion yuan) of illegal income will be confiscated [36] Commodities - In the first half of the year, the national futures market was active, with double - digit growth in trading volume. Gold led the commodity futures market, and precious metals accounted for 17.61% of the national market turnover [37] Bonds - Japan's International Cooperation Agency will issue "Africa・TICAD Bonds" in August, with a total issuance of about 23 billion yen for African infrastructure and education [39] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Japan's June foreign exchange reserves, Germany's May industrial output, etc. [41] - Events include 331.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expiring in the Chinese central bank's open market, and the implementation of the rules for program trading in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges on July 7 [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The passage of the "Great Beauty" Act may serve as a relay for the "anti-involution" action, further boosting commodity prices. It can be observed from both macro - aggregate and structural - variety dimensions. The act will have different impacts on the economy, inflation, and various commodity prices in the short and long term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Content Event Summary - On July 4, 2025, US President Trump signed the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill into law. The bill passed the House of Representatives on July 3 with 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was approved by the Senate on July 1. It is a landmark legislative agenda after Trump returned to the White House in early 2025, covering corporate tax cuts, personal and family tax cuts, reduction of clean - energy subsidies, compression of Medicaid, and cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [1] Impact on the Macro - Aggregate - Globally, the "Great Beauty" Act's measures such as raising the debt ceiling and corporate tax cuts will boost US economic growth and inflation in the short term but damage US credit and increase the possibility of stagflation in the long term. It will also affect the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Asset prices will show a weak dollar, rising US Treasury yields and US stocks, and commodities will benefit in the short term. Domestically, the act is expected to support the rebound of commodity prices [2] Impact on Structural Varieties - **Gold**: Benefited from short - term dollar weakness and long - term US credit weakening, but the slowdown of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations weakens the increase in gold prices [4] - **New - energy - related Commodities**: Measures like abolishing new - energy tax credits in the act will hit the terminal demand of the new - energy industry, reducing the industrial demand for silver, copper, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, etc. [4] - **Traditional Energy (Crude Oil)**: It will benefit in the short term but face long - term supply increases due to policies in the act, showing a short - term positive and long - term negative impact [4] - **Agricultural Products**: The impact is less than that on industrial products. The cut to the SNAP will suppress short - term consumer demand and indirectly reduce the demand for agricultural products [4]

本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货 每周核心策略推荐 铜 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周沪铜先扬后抑,宏观来看,本周国际市场地缘冲突为主要矛盾,伊以冲突加剧全球经济不确定性,原油价格上涨助推全球通货膨胀速 | | | | | 度,美元指数反弹,压制了有色市场的上涨空间,周三美联储议息仍按兵不动。预计今年仍降息两次共50个基点,目前市场关注伊朗是否 | | | | | 封锁霍尔木兹海峡。若其真正封锁,将对全球经济造成冲击。供给方面,截至2025年6月20日,现货租炼带为-43.70美元/于吨,现货精炼 | | | | | 费为-4.36美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上,铜供应量依然在走强,库存端全球铜库存去化,其中套利驱使下,伦铜 | | | | | 太幅去化，美铜依然在快速赛库，国内目前银去化幅度较缓。主要系建低净货为主。需求方面，截至2025年4月，电解铜表观消费128.27万 | | | | | 吨,相比上月涨跌-8.97万吨,涨跌幅-6.54%。全球经济不确定性的 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 04 日 热点品种 热卷： 今日热卷收盘报 3201 元/吨，早盘受螺纹限产传闻带动冲高，午盘因现货疲软回 落，午后窄幅震荡，较前一交易日涨 8 元/吨，涨幅 0.25%，呈现"高开低走后企 稳" 走势。日内成交量 62.37 万手，持仓量 158 万手，资金活跃度弱于螺纹钢。 供应端，钢厂复产提速，供应压力渐显。本周热卷钢厂开工率环比提升 0.3%至 82.5%，鞍钢、本钢检修计划集中在 6 月末收尾，7 月产量预计延续增长。需求 端，制造业淡季深化，终端采购谨慎。7 月进入车企"去库存季"，经销商库存 系数升至 1.8，警戒线为 1.5，叠加新能源车补贴退坡传闻，热卷板材采购量环 比降 12%。受房地产新开工低迷拖累，工程机械订单同比降 8.6%，中厚板类热卷 需求持续萎缩，仅空调、冰箱等因"以旧换新"有少量补库，但实际规模有限。 现货方面，全国热卷现货均价 3213 元/吨，多地日内仅有 10-20 元小涨，终端 "买涨不买跌"特征弱化， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the US military's intervention in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, the market focused on Iran's retaliatory actions, which increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, Trump's statements and Iran's weak retaliatory actions and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down the geopolitical risks and alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. Still, the subsequent development of the Middle East situation needs attention [1] - Fundamentally, crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, US crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level, and OPEC+ production increases have fallen short of expectations, leading to a marginal improvement in crude oil supply - demand. But the OPEC+ meeting is about to discuss accelerating production increases, and US crude oil and gasoline inventories have unexpectedly increased. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Lightly buy crude oil put options. With the cooling of Middle East geopolitical risks, the OPEC+ meeting approaching to discuss accelerating production increases, and the unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, cautious operation is advised [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.04% to 503.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 502.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 509.2 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1408 to 25655 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. EIA lowered the 2026 US crude oil production forecast by 120,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day, and raised the 2025 global oil inventory increase from 4,000 barrels per day to 8,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts by 20,000 barrels per day to 720,000 and 740,000 barrels per day respectively [3] - On the evening of July 2, US EIA data showed that for the week ending June 27, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.845 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.809 million barrels), 9.30% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 4.188 million barrels (expected to decrease by 236,000 barrels); refined oil inventories decreased by 1.71 million barrels (expected to decrease by 960,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 1.493 million barrels [3] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's April crude oil production was raised by 128,000 barrels per day to 26.838 million barrels per day, and its May 2025 production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 27.022 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in Saudi production. US crude oil production in the week ending June 27 decreased by 200 barrels per day to 13.433 million barrels per day, 198,000 barrels per day lower than the record high in early December last year [4] - US crude oil product four - week average supply increased to 20.288 million barrels per day, but decreased by 2.93% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 10.82% to 8.64 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 9.199 million barrels per day, a 0.06% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand increased by 6.56% to 4.043 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.74 million barrels per day, a 0.55% increase compared to the same period last year. The large decrease in gasoline demand led to a 0.13% decrease in US crude oil product single - week supply [4]

【冠通研究】 需求进入疲弱期 今日尿素盘面高开低走，日内偏强整理。市场成交弱稳，价格上涨后下游 接单情绪不积极。基本面来看，供应端日产本周产量有减少，主要系产能临时 性检修，目前日产量低于 20 万吨，压力小幅缓解。需求端，下周农需收尾，拿 货环比上周减少，后续将逐渐减弱对尿素价格支撑，工业需求以复合肥工厂为 主，工厂继续降低开工负荷，并未到秋季肥生产旺季阶段，工厂刚需拿货为 主，整体需求渐进如弱势期。库存去化以出口集港及农业拿货为主。整体来 看，供需均偏弱，行情受出口配额消息及煤炭成本端反弹而走强，整体来看， 除自身供需及出口的摇摆，还有宏观环境的不确定性，短期偏涨，但操作需谨 慎。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1740 元/吨高开低走，日内偏强震荡，最终 收于 1735 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌+0.12%，持仓量 210822 手（-11370 手）。 前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+194 手，空头-3259 手。其中，一德期货净多 单增加 2192 手、安粮期货净多单减少 1935 手；长江期货净空单增加 1944 手， 东证期货净空单减少 2954 手。 2025 年 7 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill with 218 votes in favor and 214 against. The bill raises the federal government's debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [3] - In June, China's warehousing index was 51%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the expansion range for eight consecutive months. Major sub - indices have rebounded [3] - U.S. non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. After the data release, the market abandoned bets on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80% [3] - OPEC+ has started discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day and will further discuss it in an online meeting this weekend [4] - As of the week of July 3, rebar production increased for the third consecutive week, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2210800 tons, up 1.49%; factory inventory was 1804700 tons, down 2.76%; social inventory was 3647400 tons, up 0.37%; apparent demand was 2248700 tons, up 2.26% [4] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, hot - rolled coil, soybean oil, and PVC [5] - Night - session performance by sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.75%, precious metals 27.92%, oilseeds 12.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.61%, soft commodities 2.82%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.52%, energy 3.05%, chemicals 12.35%, grains 1.11%, agricultural and sideline products 2.81% [5] Group 3: Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 0.49%, and an annual increase of 3.26%. Other indices also had different performance [7] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had their respective daily, monthly, and annual performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had different performance [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility had their respective performance [7]

【冠通研究】 关注下周美国关税情况 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 4 日 【期现行情】 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走午后下挫。美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人超预期，4、5 月合 计上修 1.6 万人，失业率意外降至 4.1%。下周 7 月 9 日，关税豁免推迟期限将至。特朗 普表示，他将于周五开始致函贸易伙伴，设定单边关税税率，各国必须从 8 月 1 日开始 支付关税税率。他补充说："关税范围高至 60%或 70%，低至 10%和 20%。"基本面来 看，供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为- 4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库 存端全球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目 前铜去化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需求增 加，带动表观消费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下游也 多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下房地 产也多拖累，整体需求反馈不佳，只有逢低采购的支撑存在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global financial market, including overnight futures market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various industries. It also provides insights into the performance of different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Key events like policy decisions, trade negotiations, and corporate actions are also covered, which can potentially impact investment decisions [2][6][27]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Futures Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.71% at $3336.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.85% at $37.04 per ounce [2]. - International oil prices dipped slightly, with WTI crude down 0.40% at $67.18 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.32% at $68.89 per barrel [3]. - London base metals closed mixed, with LME nickel up 0.35% at $15355.00 per ton, LME tin up 0.27% at $33805.00 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.55% at $2605.50 per ton, and LME copper down 0.61% at $9951.50 per ton [3]. - CBOT agricultural futures mostly rose, with soybeans up 0.02% at 1048.25 cents per bushel, corn up 0.72% at 421.00 cents per bushel, and wheat down 1.29% at 556.75 cents per bushel [3]. - Most domestic futures contracts advanced, with styrene and iron ore up over 1%, coking coal and caustic soda up nearly 1%. Glass declined nearly 1%, and SC crude rose 0.66% to 507.0 yuan per barrel. Shanghai gold fell 0.40% to 775.68 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.67% to 8926 yuan per kilogram [3]. Important Macroeconomic News - From June 1 - 30, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.032 million units, up 15% year - on - year and 5% month - on - month. Cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.849 million units, up 10% year - on - year [6][34]. - The US initial jobless claims in the week ending June 28 dropped 4000 to 233,000, a six - week low. However, the continued jobless claims in the week ending June 21 remained at a high of 1.964 million [6]. - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than May and market expectations, which may ease the Fed's pressure to cut interest rates [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary warned trade partners that tariffs might rise if no progress was made in trade negotiations [7]. - The US Middle East envoy plans to meet the Iranian foreign minister next week to restart nuclear negotiations [7][41]. - The Fed's Bostic suggested patience before cutting interest rates as inflation may persist and the labor market remains healthy [9]. - Trump may send letters to trade partners on Friday to unilaterally set tariff rates, with July 9 as the negotiation deadline [10]. - The US House of Representatives passed Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of July 3, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in China was 69.085 million heavy boxes, down 0.19% week - on - week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8095 million tons, up 2.30% from Monday [12]. - As of June 27, US natural gas inventories were 2953 billion cubic feet, up 55 billion cubic feet from the previous week, down 5.6% year - on - year, and 6.2% higher than the five - year average [12]. - OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, to be further discussed in an online meeting this weekend [12]. Metal Futures - On July 3, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, down 10,000 tons week - on - week. Social ordinary warehouses had 126,000 tons, down 2000 tons, and social delivery warehouses had 426,000 tons, up 12,000 tons [15]. - Four new lithium mines in Argentina will be put into production in the coming weeks to months, increasing annual production capacity by 79% to 202,000 metric tons equivalent [15]. - A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans to shut down for maintenance for two months, while a plant in Sichuan is operating normally [15]. Black - Series Futures - As of July 3, rebar production increased for the third consecutive week, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased, ending a 16 - week decline. Apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2210800 tons, up 1.49%; factory inventory was 1804700 tons, down 2.76%; social inventory was 3647400 tons, up 0.37%; apparent demand was 2248700 tons, up 2.26% [17]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in China was - 52 yuan/ton this week. Profits varied by region [17]. Agricultural Futures - In the 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season, Yunnan Province crushed 18.063 million tons of sugarcane, up 16.91% from the previous season, and produced 2.4188 million tons of sugar, up 19% [19]. - The ICAC predicts that global cotton production will exceed consumption in 2025/26. Production is expected to be 25.9 million tons, consumption 25.6 million tons, and trade volume to increase from 9.3 million to 9.7 million tons [21]. - As of July 2, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.2059 million tons, up from the previous week [21]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June 2025 is expected to be 1.99 million tons, down 0.24% from May; production is expected to be 1.7 million tons, down 4.04% from May; and exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, up 4.16% from May [21]. - Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports from June 29 to July 5 are expected to increase compared to the previous week [22]. - As of July 1, the percentage of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought decreased compared to the previous week [22]. - US private exporters reported sales of 150,000 tons of corn, 226,000 tons of soybeans, and 195,000 tons of soybean meal [22]. - As of June 26, US soybean export net sales in the 2024/2025 season were 462,000 tons, in line with market expectations [23]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending June 29 increased 47.16% to 173,500 tons, and the commercial inventory was 1.2112 million tons [25]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares rose on Thursday, with consumer electronics and innovative drugs leading the gain. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3461.15, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.9%. Market turnover was 1.33 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.63% to 24069.94, recording five consecutive losses. Southbound funds sold a net 3.048 billion Hong Kong dollars [27]. - Insurance funds have accelerated their pace of stock - market placards. In 2025, the number of placards has reached 18, approaching the 2024 total [27]. - Seven securities firms repurchased 191 million shares worth 2.031 billion yuan in the first half of this year. Analysts expect the valuation of the securities sector to recover [27]. - The China Securities Association announced the list of 12 IPO on - site inspection enterprises in the second batch of 2025 [28]. - The bank convertible bond market is facing a "redemption wave," and about 100 billion yuan of bank convertible bonds may complete conversion this year [30]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will address the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry [31]. - The Ministry of Commerce will promote the healthy development of second - hand car exports and will make a final ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of EU brandy [31]. - The National Medical Products Administration proposed ten key measures to support the innovation of high - end medical devices [31]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched a pilot project for number protection services to prevent telecom fraud [31]. - In June, China's warehousing index was 51%, up 0.5 percentage points from May, indicating expansion [32]. - In June, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.032 million units, with new - energy vehicle sales at 1.071 million units, showing significant growth [34]. - Hubei Jingmen introduced 19 real - estate policies, including promoting spot - housing sales from 2026 [35]. - Beijing plans to regulate "second - hand landlords" by requiring registration for those sub - leasing 10 or more units [35]. Overseas - Biden criticized Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, saying it would harm the public [36]. - Indonesia will sign a $34 billion agreement with the US next week to increase purchases [42]. - Japan's central bank may restart the interest - rate hike cycle as companies agreed to significant pay raises [42]. - The European Central Bank may cut interest rates once this year as inflation risks are more on the downside [43]. - The US technology industry group urges the EU to postpone the implementation of the AI Act [43]. - The UK Prime Minister supports the Finance Minister and reaffirms the fiscal rule of balancing revenue and expenditure by 2029 - 30 [43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02%. Chinese concept stocks had mixed performance [45]. - European stocks also closed higher, with the German DAX up 0.61%, the French CAC40 up 0.21%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.55% [45]. - BlackRock believes that US stocks are the best allocation in the current "risk - on" environment [45]. Commodities - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with gold down and silver up. Geopolitical tensions and Fed policy expectations affect gold prices [46]. - International oil prices dipped slightly due to increased US crude inventories and geopolitical easing. OPEC+ is discussing production increases [46]. - London base metals closed mixed, with aluminum under pressure and a weak supply - demand situation [46]. - Central banks are increasing gold reserves due to the "weaponization" of foreign exchange [48]. Bonds - Domestic bank - bond yields were stable with a slight decline, and the money market was more liquid. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [49]. - Since May, the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds has been booming, with over 419 bonds issued worth over 620 billion yuan [49]. - US bond yields rose due to strong labor - market data, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts decreased [49]. - Japan successfully issued 30 - year bonds, providing some relief to the bond market [50]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Thursday, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up [51]. - The US dollar strengthened as US bond yields rose, and most non - US currencies declined [53].