Industrial Data - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.1, up 0.3 percentage points from last month[2] - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises was 52,282 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%[2] Consumption Data - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,396 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, an acceleration of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Online retail sales amounted to 123,632 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales[2] - The retail sales of upgraded goods, such as cosmetics and sports entertainment products, increased by 40.1% and 26.7% respectively[2] Investment Data - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 423,222 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[2] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.3%, while real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%[2] - High-tech industry investment increased by 9.3%, with high-tech manufacturing and services growing by 8.8% and 10.6% respectively[2] Trade Data - In October, the total import and export value was 37,007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%[2] - Exports reached 21,899 billion yuan, growing by 11.2%, while imports fell by 3.7%[2] - From January to October, the total import and export value was 360,219 billion yuan, with exports growing by 6.7%[2] Price Data - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year, with food prices increasing by 2.0%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, reflecting a downward trend in industrial prices[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] Employment Data - The average urban survey unemployment rate from January to October was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year[2] - In October, the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The average weekly working hours for employees in enterprises was 48.6 hours[2]

事件： 此次"刺杀未遂事件"料将强化"特朗普交易"。 对于金融市场而言，宽货币有助于美联储更早开启降息（叠加近期美国通胀 数据的回落，美联储官员的鸽派言论，市场预期 9 月降息概率大增，年内降息幅 度增大），美债利率特别是短端利率加快下行，期限利差陡峭化--牛陡；扩财政 支持制造业回流，有助于部分传统产业，对于科技股的支持有限，对于美元，观 点分歧，个人认为总体偏利空，偏弱的美元更加有助于美国贸易逆差的修补，扩 财政虽然长期看有助于美国经济的增长支撑美元，但在如今更加削弱美元的信用， 宽松的货币政策则更加利空美元。贸易摩擦的加大，对外关税的提升，则刺激美 国进口企业的补库抢跑，赶在价税前备货，继而带来部分需求的前置，支撑相关 商品的需求，有利于中国外需的持续超预期韧性。 盾分歧加剧下的产物。2024 年下半年，世界地缘冲突从中东蔓延到亚太，俄乌 战争愈演愈烈，第六次中东战争似乎正在酝酿，一触即发的局势令投资者避险情 绪抬升，继而利多黄金等避险资产。对于大宗商品而言，再通胀交易降温，内部 结构的再次轮转，黄金依旧是增配首选，关注能源和粮食。从去年 6 月至今，商 品的几波大起大落，行情积聚在工业品上，农产品相对 ...

日期 2024年3月18日 工业：1—2月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长7.0%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，2月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长0.56%。分三大门类看，1—2月份，采矿业增加值同比增长2.3%，制造业增长 7.7%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长7.9%。分经济类型看，1—2月份，国有控股企业增加值同比增长5.8%；股份制企业增长7.3%，外商及港澳台投资企业增长6.2%；私营企业增长6.5%。 消费：1—2月份，社会消费品零售总额81307亿元，同比增长5.5%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额74194亿元，增长5.2%。 投资：2024年1—2月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）50847亿元，同比增长4.2%（按可比口径计算），增速比2023年全年加快1.2个百分点。其中，制造业投资增长9.4%，增速加快2.9个百分点；基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及 水生产和供应业）增长6.3%，增速加快0.4个百分点。从环比看，2月份固定资产投资（不含农户）增长0.88%。2024年1—2月份，民间固定资产投资26753亿元，同比增长0.4%。 地产：1—2月 ...