一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周二持仓量减仓 6369 手，成交量 288700 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3283 元，最高价 3306 元，日内 震荡偏弱运行，日均线来看短期跌破 5 日均线，但 30 日均线附近有支撑，收于 3289 元/吨，下跌 2 元，跌幅 0.60%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3290 元/吨。相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期现基差 1 元，基本平水。 二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 22 日热卷周产量环比下降 2.95 万吨至 305.41 万吨。 年同比下降 17.23 万吨，产量环比回落，同比大幅下降，反映钢厂产能释放有 所收敛，可能受检修安排，利润波动等因素影响，支撑价格。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 22 日周度表观消费量环比下降 4.2 万吨至 309.96 万 吨，年同比上升 7.39 万吨，需求环比略有回落，但同比保持增长，节前备货对 需求形成支撑，整体需求韧性较强。 ■库存端：截止 1 月 22 日总库存周环比下 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力高开低走，日内震荡走低。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇 叭，短期震荡信号。盘中压力关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注前一低位附近。 成交量较昨日减 47.5 万手，持仓量较昨日增 24267 手；日内最高 1092，最低 1063，收盘 1066，（较昨结算价）跌 10 元/吨，跌幅 0.93%。 2，现货市场：华北，大板价格稳定，部分小板价格上涨，市场价格重心上 移；华东，交投气氛一般，企业多稳价出货，理性采购；华中，整体还行，小部 分企业 lowe 价格提涨；华南，原片价格稳定，市场采购理性。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1010，基差-56 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 22 日，本周浮法玻璃总产量 105.52 万吨，环比+0.28%， 同比-3.95%。行业平均开工率 71.62%，环比+0.14%；平均产能利用率 75.57%， 环比+0.34%。本周暂无产线放水或者点火，日产量维持平稳。 库存方面，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存 5321.6 万重箱，环比+20. ...

养殖产业链数据报告-玉米、生猪、鸡蛋 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料 我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证 报告中的内容和意见仅供参考 并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价 我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所 引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责 本报告仅向特定客户传送 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版 发布日期 2026年1月27日 频度：周 最新值 前值 周环比 全国市场均价:玉米： （元/吨） 2333.00 2327.00 0.26% 主要深加工企业:玉米: 消费量（万吨） 121.28 119.66 1.35% 玉米:库存：北方四港 （万吨） 149.70 133.20 12.39% 主要深加工企业：玉 米：库存（万吨） 324.00 294.00 10.20% CBOT：玉米：主力合 约：结算价 （美分/蒲式耳） 430.50 420.25 2.44% 玉米：FOB价：美国西 部：沿海港口地区 （美元/吨） 221.85 223.92 -0.92% 玉米：到岸完税价格： 美国西部沿海港口地区 （元/吨） 2011.3 2020.86 -0.47% 玉米期货主力合约基差 （元/吨） 84.65 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/1/27 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.5%报 5004.8 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 2.52%报 103.89 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 0.39%，报 60.83 美元/桶；布油主力合约跌 0.26%，报 64 ...

3.欧盟理事会批准对俄罗斯天然气实施禁令。欧盟将于2027年1月1日起全面禁止进口俄罗斯液化天然气，并于2027年9月30日 起全面禁止进口俄罗斯管道天然气。 4.据Mysteel数据显示，2026年01月19日-01月25日中国47港铁矿石到港总量2625.5万吨，环比减少272.2万吨；中国45港铁矿 石到港总量2530.0万吨，环比减少129.7万吨；北方六港铁矿石到港总量1238.1万吨，环比减少204.8万吨。 早盘速递 2026/1/27 热点资讯 1.上期所、上期能源发布通知，将白银、锡期货合约单日开仓交易限额分别下调至800手和200手，对16名客户限制锡、白银期 货开仓1个月并限制出金；将铜、国际铜、铝期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为9%，套保、一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%和 11%。广期所也发布风险提示函，强调将严肃查处各类违规行为。 2.美方称如果加拿大同中国达成新的贸易协议，美国将对自加拿大进口的商品加征100%关税。外交部发言人郭嘉昆对此表示， 中加构建新型战略伙伴关系，就妥善解决中加之间的经贸问题作出一些具体安排，不针对任何第三方。 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | - ...

冠通期货研究报告 --聚烯烃周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年1月26日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 塑料开工率上涨至90%左右，处于中性偏高水平。PP开工率下跌至80%左右，处于中性偏低水平。截至1月23日当周，PE下游开 工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升， 整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位水平。PP下游开工率环比回升0.34个百分点至52.87%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.56个百分点至42.04%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年同期。石化1月上中旬去 库较好，但近日去库一般，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上 伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。另外，新增产能，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The start of agricultural demand is the key to supporting urea prices. Although the fundamentals may deteriorate marginally during the downstream factory holidays, with the approaching spring plowing, urea prices are likely to rise rather than fall [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, upstream factories supported prices with pending orders, leading to a market inversion. Futures lacked support and downstream demand was weak, but spot prices remained stable. Some factories raised prices slightly over the weekend. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,690 - 1,720 yuan/ton [2][4][5] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market showed mixed trends, with an overall increase. As of January 26, the main May contract closed at 1,791 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 19. Weekly trading volume decreased by 255.34 million tons to 1,206.05 million tons, and open interest increased by 16.736 million tons to 776.372 million tons. The long - term trend remains strong. The futures increase was greater than the spot increase, and the basis weakened. As of January 26, the 05 - contract basis was - 51 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of urea warehouse receipts on January 26 was 13,274, down 81 week - on - week [7][8][10] 3.3 Urea Supply Side - Last week, urea weekly production increased. From January 15 - 21, weekly production was 1.4238 million tons, up 1.33% from the previous period, with an average daily production of 203,400 tons. Coal - based production increased by 0.74%, gas - based production increased by 5.30%. Small - particle production increased by 1.60%, and large - particle production increased by 0.28%. On January 26, the national daily urea production was 206,100 tons, up 19,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.68%. Coal prices weakened, LNG prices remained unchanged, synthetic ammonia prices fell, and methanol prices rose [15][17][18] 3.4 Urea Demand Side - As of January 26, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer remained stable week - on - week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continued to increase and was higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to cost support for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, compound fertilizer prices were in a stalemate, downstream demand was weak, and there was a possibility of production cuts due to squeezed profits. As of January 23, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 63.65%, up 1.47% from the previous period and 3.48% year - on - year. From January 19 - 23, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 63.65%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous period but lower than the same period last year. Industrial demand only maintained basic needs. As of January 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, down 40,100 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.07% and 488,900 tons lower than the same period last year. Port inventory was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [20][22] 3.5 International Market - Export restrictions in China and Iran have pushed up international urea prices. India is expected to issue a tender in February, and there is also import demand in Mexico and Latin America due to supply shortages. As of January 23, small - particle FOB prices in China increased by 15 US dollars/ton week - on - week to 420 US dollars/ton, and large - particle FOB prices in China increased by 10 US dollars/ton week - on - week to 425 US dollars/ton. FOB prices in other regions also showed varying degrees of increase [24]

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1770 1750 20 河南 1740 1740 0 山东 1750 1760 -10 山西 1610 1610 0 江苏 1760 1760 0 安徽 1760 1760 0 黑龙江 1780 1780 0 内蒙古 1790 1790 0 河北东光 1750 1740 10 山东华鲁 1730 1730 0 江苏灵谷 1800 1800 0 安徽昊源 1730 1730 0 山东05基差 -26 -29 3 山东01基差 -1 0 -1 河北05基差 -26 -29 3 河北01基差 -1 0 -1 1-5价差 19 29 -10 5-9价差 25 29 -4 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 13274 13274 0 中东FOB 426 411.5 15 美湾FOB 423.5 406.5 17 埃及FOB 462.5 452.5 10 波罗的海FOB 405 395 10 巴西CFR 432.5 427.5 5 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 尿素 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - Global capital markets experienced significant volatility and divergence, influenced by Trump's tariff threats and yen fluctuations. The VIX index rose slightly, the yen strengthened after depreciation, the US dollar declined sharply, US and Japanese stocks faced pressure, while gold and silver reached new highs. The RMB appreciated, A - shares continued to correct and diverge, and the BDI index soared. Commodities showed increased differentiation [5][10]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded, stock indices showed mixed performance, and commodity sectors remained strong with continued divergence. The growth - style stocks outperformed the value - style. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly increase of 10.07%, with 6 out of 10 commodity sectors rising and 4 falling [6][16]. 2. Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% in January remains at 95.4%, and the probability of a 25 - bp cut to 3.25 - 3.5% is 4.6%. The market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026. The Fed's interest - rate decision is expected to keep the rate unchanged, and investors will focus on dissenting votes and accompanying statements to assess future rate - cut timing and rhythm [7][67]. 3. Sector Analysis 3.1 Capital Flows - The commodity futures market saw a significant overall inflow of funds last week. The non - ferrous metals, chemical, and precious metals sectors had the most obvious inflows, while the agricultural products sector had a significant outflow [18]. 3.2 Variety Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising varieties were lithium carbonate, platinum, and Shanghai silver, while the top - falling ones were glass, live pigs, and iron ore [22]. 3.3 Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased, the Wind Commodity Index's volatility increased, and the Nanhua Commodity Index's volatility decreased. Among sectors, the coal - coking - steel - ore and grain sectors had significant volatility declines, while the chemical and oil - and - fat sectors had notable increases [25]. 4. Macro Logic 4.1 Stock Market - The four major domestic stock indices continued to correct and diverge last week. Growth - style stocks were stronger, and value - style indices declined. The valuation changes of stock indices diverged, and the equity risk premium (ERP) was at a one - year low [30][31]. 4.2 Commodities - Commodity price indices rose strongly, and inflation expectations rebounded strongly. The performance difference between commodities and stocks increased, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns changed little [40][47]. 4.3 US Treasury Bonds - US Treasury yields showed mixed performance, with little change in maturity. The term spread fluctuated narrowly, real interest rates were under pressure, and the gold price reached a new high. US Treasury rates rose, the China - US spread narrowed, inflation expectations increased, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar index declined, and the RMB strengthened [57][60]. 4.4 US Economic Indicators - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" was strong, the Citi Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M Treasury spread widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [62]. 5. Central Bank Policies 5.1 Fed - The Fed is likely to maintain the interest rate in January, and the market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][67]. 5.2 Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. The yen depreciated significantly and approached 160 against the US dollar. The market expects joint US - Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market [71][72]. 6. Impact of Yen Fluctuations - The yen's sharp fluctuations, especially rapid appreciation, can lead to the unwinding of global yen carry trades, resulting in tightened global market liquidity and asset - price volatility. It has different impacts on various asset classes, such as being negative for global bonds and stocks, positive for safe - haven assets, and causing oscillations and differentiation in commodities [85][86]. 7. Upcoming Events - This week, important economic data and central - bank meetings include US durable - goods orders, German business climate index, Canadian and Brazilian central - bank rate decisions, and the Fed's FOMC meeting [89].

冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年1月26日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.4个百分点至26.8%，较去年同期高了2.5个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯 数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青 下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌1个百分点至14%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，国际油价带动船燃焦化下 游采购积极性，东北地区低硫沥青出货较多，全国出货量环比增加1.82%至22.77万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小 幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势动荡，与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞 拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限 ...