软商品日报：近弱远强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 棉花：当前市场基本面因素支撑有限，涨势主要受到资金炒作明年新疆种植 面积或将调减的相关政策消息影响。有消息称，12 月 23 日自治区棉花产业发展 领导小组办公室召开了调减新疆棉花种植面积专题会议。目前市场尚无相关政策 确切消息，但若属实，明年新疆种植面积将大幅下降；当前也正值三年目标价格 补贴政策的重新评估阶段。 市场现货利多有限，远月炒作在拉动价格上涨后，短期上涨动能或面临枯竭， 存在回调风险，棉花基本面上想要有趋势性的行情驱动，仍需大量时间蓄能，建 议等待盘面回调后再介入。 【冠通期货研究报告】 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、沐甜科技、 泛糖科技、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。 我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 本报告仅向特定客户传送 构和个人均不得 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 对钢铁、石化等原材料产业，关键在于平衡供需、优化结构。原材料行业是 我国国民经济的重要基础产业和支柱产业。当前，钢铁、石化等原材料行业普遍 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 甲醇日报：伊朗装置扰动下，反内卷风波再起 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 【基本面分析】 库存方面：截至 2025 年 12 月 24 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 141.25 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 19.37 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 20.77 万吨；华 南地区去库，库存减少 1.40 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存大幅累库，主要累库幅度 体现在江苏，周期内卸货顺利，显性外轮记入 40.33 万吨。内地转弱导致江苏沿 江提货明显转弱，助力江苏库存大幅积累；浙江地区刚需稳定，库存窄幅波动。 本周华南港口库存小幅去库。广东地区周内仅内贸船只抵港，主流库区提货量在 当地及周边支撑下依旧稳健，库存呈现去库。福建地区进口集中卸货，下游维持 刚需消耗，库存有所累积。 进口方面：伊朗地区因限气导致开工率降低，装船放缓，进口压力有一定缓 解，但考虑到 11 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利-18 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利-3 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 27 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-64 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利 35 元/吨。 下游需求，钢材终端需求疲弱，刚需补库为主；247 家钢厂盈利率回升 1.3 个百分点至 37.23%，日均铁水产量环比上周增加 0.03 万吨至 226.58 万吨，中 止前期五连降，同比去年减少 1.29 万吨。 上游焦煤：钢焦企业采购均较谨慎，独立焦企库存微增 3.43 万吨至 1039.72 万吨，钢厂炼焦煤库存小增 1.73 万吨至 806.72 万吨，煤矿炼焦煤库存增加 10.1 万吨的同时，港口进口炼焦煤库存增加 23.09 万吨。因此，炼焦煤综合库存环增 1.47%至 2647.24 万吨，创近 7 个月新高，同比降幅仍达近 14%。 消息方面，河北天津主流钢厂开启第四轮提降。国家发改委：持续实施粗钢 产量调控，严禁违规新增产能，促进优胜劣汰。工国务院国资委:国有企业要带 头抵制"内卷式"竞争带动产业链上下游企业融通发展。全国财政工作会议在北京 召开。会议指出，2026 年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is currently in a situation where cost support and inventory pressure are in a game under the pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation, and there are no unilateral driving factors for now. Attention should be paid to the winter storage market in January and the recovery slope of production capacity [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 43,907 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 511,982 lots. The intraday low was 3,280 yuan, the high was 3,308 yuan, and it closed at 3,287 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.55% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 3 yuan, approaching flat water [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 16,300 tons to 2.9354 million tons week-on-week, and decreased by 136,000 tons year-on-year. This week's output rebounded after a sharp decline last week, currently near the lowest level of the year and at a near 4-year low, enhancing price support. The reduction in production was mainly due to profit contraction, more steel mill maintenance, some steel mills switching to rebar production, and the seasonal off-season [3]. - Demand: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 87,600 tons to 3.0704 million tons week-on-week, and decreased by 22,900 tons year-on-year. This week's apparent consumption rebounded, and the export rush market emerged, but the winter storage market in January still needs to be monitored [3]. - Inventory: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 135,000 tons to 3.7722 million tons week-on-week (social inventory decreased by 106,000 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 29,000 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, and the destocking accelerated, indicating that demand was resilient in late December, likely due to enterprises rushing to export. However, the total inventory was at a near 4-year high. The subsequent destocking speed needs to be monitored [3]. - Policy: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses were introduced. In the short term, it will cause export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4]. - External Macro: In the United States, the core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1% [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Significant decline in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected resumption of steel mill production in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]. Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Last week's reported output of hot-rolled coil rebounded but was at a relatively low level, and there may still be room for output to rebound in the future. The rebound in apparent consumption shows demand resilience, but the subsequent demand increase is limited. The total inventory continued to be destocked, but the total amount was still at a high level. There is an expectation of a relatively loose macro environment. It is necessary to monitor whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom - bust line. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the winter storage market in January and the slope of production capacity recovery. Today's daily line closed with a long upper - shadow阳线, indicating pressure above but also support below. It is expected to mainly maintain a sideways consolidation. There are no unilateral driving factors for now [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 29, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like palladium and platinum hit the daily limit down, while others like iron ore saw significant increases. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper (SHFE copper) has been rising recently. Market sentiment was boosted by the zero - pricing of the 2026 long - term mining processing fee and Trump's remarks on the Fed chair. However, copper product profits are squeezed, and capacity utilization is declining. Copper foil remains highly prosperous. The inventory of cathode copper on the SHFE has been increasing, indicating weak downstream demand. The copper price on the five - disk rose significantly today, breaking through the 100,000 - integer mark [9][10]. - **Palladium and Platinum**: Both hit the daily limit down, with a decline of 10% [6]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened high but closed nearly 8% lower. Production is expected to increase, and downstream demand is showing signs of weakening. Although the downstream energy - storage battery still maintains growth, the expected production cut of lithium iron phosphate in the first quarter will reduce the support for carbonate lithium prices. Inventory has been decreasing recently [11]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The 2605 contract saw an inflow of 624 million yuan in funds [7]. - **Iron Ore**: It rose by over 2%, and the 2605 contract had a 1.03 - billion - yuan inflow of funds. It was one of the commodities with significant price increases and strong capital inflows [6][7]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The 2605 contract had a 211 - million - yuan inflow of funds [7]. - **Gold and Silver**: The 2602 contracts of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver had large - scale capital outflows, with 5.267 billion yuan and 5.166 billion yuan respectively [7]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + 's eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. However, the market is still in a state of supply surplus, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease as some refineries have plans to switch production or stop production. The demand in the north is gradually weakening, but winter - storage demand is being released. The demand in the south is average. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [14]. Chemicals - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, and the supply is increasing with new capacity and fewer maintenance devices. The downstream is approaching the end of the peak season, and orders are decreasing. It is expected that the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **Plastic**: New production capacity has been put into operation recently. The agricultural film season is ending, and orders are decreasing. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate is decreasing, and downstream demand is weak. The export situation is not optimistic, and inventory pressure is high. It is expected to fluctuate [19]. Other Commodities - **Coking Coal**: The price opened high but closed lower. The supply from domestic mines may decrease, but imported coal is increasing. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is rising. After the third - round price cut of coke was implemented, the fourth - round price cut has started. It is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price cuts [20][21]. - **Urea**: It opened low and closed flat. The market atmosphere is average, and enterprises are reducing prices to attract orders. The daily production is around 200,000 tons. The compound - fertilizer factory's operating rate is declining, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, be weak in the short - term, and strong in the medium - to - long - term [22]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) all declined, with declines of 0.56%, 0.48%, 0.67%, and 0.51% respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year (TS), 5 - year (TF), 10 - year (T), and 30 - year (TL) treasury bond futures all declined, with declines of 0.07%, 0.18%, 0.28%, and 0.91% respectively [7].

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制，反内卷提振情绪 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：己内酰胺生产利润-350 元/吨(-40)，酚酮生产利润-927 元/吨 (+0)，苯胺生产利润 789 元/吨(+178)，己二酸生产利润-1018 元/吨(-11)。己 内酰胺开工率 69.20%(-5.37%)，苯酚开工率 76.00%(-3.50%)，苯胺开工率 61.35% (-14.59%)，己二酸开工率 59.60%(+0.40%) 。 纯苯因关税问题，韩国对中国纯苯出口量增加，进口集中到货，港口库存压 力明显，但后续累库会逐步放缓，目前呈现供强需弱的格局。 苯乙烯方面：12 月 12 日至 18 日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在 34.68 万吨， 较上期+2.38%;工厂产能利用率 69.13%，环比+1.02%。苯乙烯下游 EPS、PS、ABS 消耗量在 26.18 万吨，环比-3.89%。苯乙烯工厂库存在 17.10 万吨，环比上周 -4.23%。截至 12 月 22 日，苯乙烯华东港口库存在 13.93 万吨，环比上周+3.41%; 华南港口库存在 1.1 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 一、市场行情回顾 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1300，基差 119 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，国内纯碱产量 71.18 万吨，环比-0.96 万吨， 跌幅 1.32%。其中，轻碱产量 32.63 万吨，环比-0.48 万吨。重碱产量 38.55 万 吨，环比-0.48 万吨。综合产能利用率 81.65%，上周 82.74%，环比-1.09%。其 中氨碱产能利用率 83.32%，环比-5.90%；联产产能利用率 73.85%，环比+0.79%。 15 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 85.80%，环比-1.68%。虽近 期阿拉善二期新产能投产，但整体行业开工率有所下调，短线供应压力略有所缓 解。 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内偏弱。120 分钟布林带三轨往上， 震荡偏强信号，盘中继续关注日线三十均线压力。成交量较昨日减 23.3 万手， 持仓量较昨日增 34340 手；日内最高 1203，最低 1176，收盘 1181，（较昨日结 算价）跌 7 元/吨，跌幅 0.59 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Views - In 2025, crude oil prices showed a weak oscillation. Brent spot prices dropped from $77 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $63 per barrel currently, a decline of 18.18%. Looking ahead to 2026, the overall supply of crude oil is expected to exceed demand, and prices will decline in Q1. Brent crude may fall below the lowest point in 2025. [4] - In 2026, on the supply side, OPEC+ will take a flexible approach to production increases. Non-OPEC+ supplies from countries like Brazil and Canada are expected to increase by about 1.15 million barrels per day. On the demand side, due to weak global economic recovery and new energy substitution, the growth rate of crude oil demand in 2026 is expected to be 1.1 million barrels per day. [4] - Low oil prices will suppress crude oil production. With Trump's economic stimulus and the arrival of the peak consumption season for crude oil, prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound in Q2. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Domestic Crude Oil Price Trends - In 2025, crude oil prices showed a weak oscillation. Brent spot prices dropped from $77 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $63 per barrel, a decline of 18.18%. The internal and external price spreads oscillated within a range throughout the year. [12] Crude Oil Supply Surplus - In 2025, global crude oil supply increased by 3.01 million barrels per day year-on-year to 106.18 million barrels per day, while demand increased by 1.14 million barrels per day year-on-year to 103.9 million barrels per day, resulting in a supply surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day. EIA predicts a surplus of 2.26 million barrels per day in 2026. [22] Crude Oil Production - OPEC+ gradually lifted production cuts in 2025. OPEC's crude oil production in October was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and in November it decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 28.48 million barrels per day. OPEC+ production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.42 million barrels per day compared to the beginning of the year. [28] - Russia's sustainable crude oil production capacity has been declining. In October, the US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, which account for about half of Russia's oil exports. However, Russia may reduce the impact of sanctions through various means. [35] - Iran's crude oil production decreased from 3.278 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 3.221 million barrels per day in November. Venezuela's production increased from 913,000 barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 934,000 barrels per day in November. [39] - In 2025, US oil drilling rigs decreased, but production efficiency increased. US crude oil production remained stable at around 13.5 million barrels per day and reached a record high in November. It is expected to decrease by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day in 2026. [43] - Non-OPEC+ countries such as Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are important growth points for crude oil production in 2026. EIA predicts that non-OPEC countries will increase production by 1.13 million barrels per day in total. [47] China's Crude Oil Market - From January to November 2025, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year to 675.07 million tons, and imports increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 521.87 million tons. The non-state trade import quota for 2026 is 257 million tons, the same as in 2025. [52] - In 2025, China's major refinery operating rates followed seasonal fluctuations, with higher rates in Q3 and lower rates in Q4. Shandong independent refineries had lower operating rates, between 45% - 55%. [57] - Affected by economic slowdown and new energy substitution, the growth rate of China's refined oil products slowed down. From January to October, the apparent consumption of aviation kerosene increased slightly, while gasoline and diesel consumption decreased. [62] - From January to October 2025, China's exports of diesel and gasoline decreased, while aviation kerosene exports increased. [62] - From January to October 2025, China's natural gas heavy truck sales and new energy passenger vehicle sales increased, and their market shares also increased. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will further increase in 2026. [67] US Crude Oil Market - As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil imports decreased by 64,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 6.525 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 655,000 barrels per day to 4.664 million barrels per day. The average net imports in 2025 decreased by 9.81% year-on-year. [72] - In November 2025, the US core CPI and overall CPI increased at a slower pace. The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the market has different expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026. [77] - In 2025, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US first increased and then decreased. It is expected that the cracking spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US will have greater elasticity in 2026. [81][86] - In 2025, US gasoline and diesel demand decreased year-on-year. EIA predicts that US oil consumption demand will decrease by 10,000 barrels per day to 20.58 million barrels per day in 2026. [92] - In 2025, the operating rate of US refineries was relatively high, and the crude oil input volume also increased. After the autumn maintenance, the operating rate and input volume recovered quickly. [97] - As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The strategic petroleum reserve increased for 21 consecutive weeks. [102][107][112] Global Demand and Inventory - In 2025, India's oil demand increased slightly, while Europe's decreased slightly. [117][122] - The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate will slow down in 2026. Emerging markets and developing economies will also see a decline in growth rates, while developed economies will remain stable. [124] - Different institutions have different predictions for global crude oil demand growth in 2026. EIA, IEA, and OPEC have different views on the growth rates in 2025 and 2026. [128] - EIA predicts that the inventory of OECD commercial crude oil and other liquids will continue to increase until Q4 2026, and the global crude oil inventory has returned to the level since 2021. [133] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Iran conflict have affected the crude oil market, but most of the time, the impact on supply and transportation is not substantial, and the market returns to fundamental pricing after short-term disturbances. [137] - In 2025, the situation in Venezuela, the progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and the possibility of Israel attacking Iran again are the main geopolitical factors affecting the crude oil market. [137]

Report Information - Report Title: Guantong Futures - Bitumen 2026 Annual Report - Reshaping of Bitumen Supply Pattern under Raw Material and Policy Pressure - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Date: December 29, 2025 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - In 2025, the overall weighted center of bitumen prices moved down, mainly ranging from 2,900 to 3,900 yuan/ton. The bitumen/crude oil ratio increased, with a main range of 6.0 - 7.8. In 2026, bitumen prices are expected to decline initially and then rebound. It is recommended to go long on the bitumen crack spread after crude oil prices rise to a high level. Regarding the basis, it is expected to be strongly volatile in Q1 and weakly volatile in Q4 [4]. - In terms of cost, the overall supply of crude oil exceeds demand. Prices are expected to decline in Q1 and gradually bottom - out and recover in Q2. Bitumen prices mainly follow crude oil price fluctuations. Pay attention to the supply and demand of crude oil, especially the export of heavy oil from Russia and Venezuela [4]. - On the supply side, affected by raw materials and capacity clearance, bitumen production is expected to remain low, and the supply market will become more concentrated [4]. - In terms of demand, the focus of roads will shift to the construction, upgrading, and maintenance of rural roads. The real estate market is in the process of bottom - out recovery and cannot strongly support bitumen demand. However, as the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, policy support is expected to increase bitumen demand, with a cautious and optimistic outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Bitumen Price Trends - In 2025, the weighted center of bitumen prices moved down, mainly between 2,900 - 3,900 yuan/ton, and the bitumen/crude oil ratio was in the range of 6.0 - 7.8. The price fluctuated throughout the year due to factors such as crude oil price changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical situations [4][6]. Bitumen Spot Prices - Since Q2 2025, the market price of bitumen in South China has declined more than in other regions due to new production capacity and price cuts by local refineries [12]. - In 2025, the basis in Shandong was high from March to July, then declined after August. In December, the basis of the bitumen 02 contract was around 0 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. It is expected to be strongly volatile in Q1 2026 and weakly volatile in Q4 [20][21]. Bitumen持仓及仓单情况 - From January to October 2025, the net position of the top 20 bitumen traders fluctuated between long and short, and has been in a net short position since November. Warehouse receipts decreased to a low level, while factory warehouse receipts rose to a neutral level since mid - December [24]. Diluted Bitumen - Currently, the port inventory of diluted bitumen is at a low level. Due to the tense situation in Venezuela, the export of diluted bitumen to China may be restricted, resulting in a potential shortage of about 600,000 barrels per day of crude oil supply. Pay attention to the development of the Venezuelan situation and whether OPEC+ production increases can offset the impact [29]. Bitumen Capacity and Production - In 2024, bitumen production capacity decreased by 220 tons to 7.87 million tons. In 2025, it further decreased to 7.705 million tons. In 2026, backward production capacity in Northeast and Northwest China is expected to be phased out [34]. - Due to changes in fuel oil consumption deduction policies and import tariff rate increases, refineries without crude oil quotas are facing large losses, and market share is shifting to refineries with quotas [34]. Bitumen Production - In November 2025, bitumen production decreased by 13.63% month - on - month to 2.238 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.56%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 26.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.76% [42]. Bitumen Apparent Consumption and Shipment Volume - In October 2025, bitumen apparent consumption decreased by 2.92% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.37%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent consumption was 26.7259 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.44% [47]. - As of the week of December 19, the national bitumen shipment volume decreased by 3.52% month - on - month to 244,500 tons, at a neutral level [47]. Bitumen开工率与利润 - As of the week of December 19, the bitumen operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 27.6%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, remaining at a low level in recent years. Currently, the spot profit of bitumen is still in a loss state [52]. Bitumen Capacity Distribution and Maintenance Devices - Shandong has the largest bitumen production capacity, accounting for 31.5%. Other regions such as East China (excluding Shandong), North China, and South China each account for more than 10% [57]. - Many enterprises have shut down or switched production due to losses in bitumen production margins [57]. Bitumen Import and Export - From January to November 2025, the cumulative bitumen import was 3.547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative export was 584,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.7%. The net import is at a low level [60]. Bitumen Downstream - Road bitumen accounts for more than 70% of bitumen consumption, but its consumption share is gradually decreasing. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased year - on - year [64]. - Bitumen waterproofing membranes account for 14% of bitumen downstream demand. Due to the continuous decline in real - estate new construction and environmental protection pressure, the consumption volume and share have slightly decreased [70]. - The growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure has been declining, and traditional infrastructure is difficult to maintain high - speed growth [74]. - The focus of road construction will shift to rural roads, which cannot strongly support bitumen demand. The shortage of funds restricts the start of road bitumen projects [80]. - In November 2025, the new social financing increased by 248.85 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.97 billion yuan. The scissors gap between M1 and M2 widened for two consecutive months [84]. - From January to October 2025, local government new special bonds totaled 3.9805 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. Since August, bond issuance has slowed down, and the proportion flowing into road construction has decreased, restricting bitumen demand [88]. - As of December 19, the operating rates of road - modified bitumen, waterproofing membranes, and shoe - material - modified bitumen in the bitumen downstream were 24.00%, 27.00%, and 22.14% respectively, lower than the six - year average [95]. Bitumen Inventory - In 2025, both bitumen factory and social inventories showed a trend of rising first and then falling. As of the week of December 19, the factory inventory was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%. The social inventory was 1.029 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 16.27% [100].

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