1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the high - end supply of urea suppressed its price increase, domestic demand determined the support level, and exports provided the driving force. The price showed a trend of rising first, then falling, and rising slightly at the end of the year. In 2026, due to new capacity, the supply side will still be under pressure. Exports are expected to continue to be released in the form of quotas. Agricultural demand may be advanced in the first half of the year, and the price is expected to be strong in the first half and decline in the second half, with an overall upward shift in the center of gravity [7]. - On the supply side, 5.87 million tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation in China in 2025, and 7.78 million tons are expected to be put into operation in 2026. Most of the new capacity is coal - based, and the coal - based production accounts for a high proportion. The total urea production from January to November 2025 was 65.057 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The coal price is expected to rise moderately in 2026, and attention should be paid to its impact on the cost support of urea [7]. - On the demand side, in terms of agricultural demand, the purchase of urea is expected to be advanced in 2026, and the total agricultural demand will maintain a year - on - year increase. The compound fertilizer factory has a high inventory, and raw material procurement is expected to be cautious. Other industrial demands related to real estate are expected to increase slightly. In terms of exports, the policy in 2026 is expected to be mainly relaxed, but in the first - half agricultural peak season, ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will be the main logic, and exports will be appropriately and limitedly liberalized [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Market Review - In 2025, the urea market was affected by supply, domestic demand, and export news. The price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with multiple pulse - like increases driven by export news. For example, in January, the market was weak due to insufficient domestic demand but rebounded due to export news; in February, the price rose due to the expectation of the spring plowing season; in May, the price declined due to the lower - than - expected export quota [12]. Urea Spot Price Trend - In 2025, the urea spot price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and was lower than the previous year due to supply pressure. The Shandong spot price ranged from 1,550 yuan/ton to 1,900 yuan/ton. In 2026, if there is no significant change in export policy, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [20]. Basis - The urea basis usually strengthens during the agricultural demand peak season and the reserve season and weakens during the off - season. In 2025, the annual fluctuation range was relatively small. Before June, the basis continued to strengthen, and then entered the agricultural off - season. The basis strengthened until the futures were at a premium, providing hedging opportunities for enterprises. During the winter storage period, the basis is expected to continue to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunities of hedging goods [28]. Contango Structure - The contango structure of urea (near - term weak, long - term strong) is gradually flattening. Since the third quarter of 2025, the price of the 01 contract has continued to strengthen, and the 1 - 5 spread has weakened. With the arrival of the agricultural peak season in the coming year, the 5 - 9 spread is expected to gradually strengthen, and attention should be paid to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [33]. Urea Trading and Position - In 2025, the urea delivery volume increased significantly. From January to November, the delivery volume reached 25,700 lots, the highest in the same period in history. The addition of large - granular urea as an alternative delivery product deepened the service of futures to the real economy and facilitated the participation of upstream and downstream enterprises in delivery and futures business [39]. Supply Analysis Urea Production Capacity Investment - In 2025, 5.87 million tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation in China, and 7.78 million tons are expected to be put into operation in 2026. In the next five years, global new urea production capacity will mainly be concentrated in Latin America, Brazil, the United States, and India, with Australia adding 2 million tons [46]. Capacity Analysis - About 84% of the total production capacity has been in operation for less than 20 years. In recent years, most of the new production capacity uses the coal - water slurry process, and the fixed - bed and fluidized - bed processes are gradually being phased out. The anti - involution policy has promoted the optimization and technological upgrading of production capacity [54]. High - level Annual Production - From January to November 2025, the total urea production was 65.057 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.64%, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The daily production was mostly around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. It is expected that the production capacity will resume in early 2026, increasing production [59]. Increasing Proportion of Coal - based Production - Seasonally, gas - based plants may reduce production in winter due to gas supply limitations, but the impact may be weakened by the increasing proportion of coal - based production. In 2025, the capacity utilization rate of gas - based plants was significantly lower than the previous year, while coal - based plants had more new investments and profits, with coal - based production accounting for about 76% [64][65]. Coal Price Trend - The production of coal - based urea is shifting from traditional high - quality anthracite to modern large - scale gasification using cheap lignite. The coal price in 2025 first decreased and then increased, and is expected to rise moderately in 2026 due to stricter policy regulation in the coking industry [72]. Natural Gas Price Trend - In 2025, the natural gas price fluctuated moderately and remained low and stable for two consecutive years due to sufficient supply and weak demand. The domestic natural gas production increased steadily, while the consumption growth rate slowed down [77]. Decent Profit of Coal - water Slurry Process - As of December 19, 2025, the profits of fixed - bed and gas - based urea production were negative, while the coal - water slurry process still had profits, but it was close to the cost line in November. The cost advantage of the coal - water slurry process will further expand the losses of fixed - bed and gas - based plants [81]. Unobvious Cost Support - Historically, the Shandong urea market price was initially benchmarked against the fixed - bed cost and later against the coal - water slurry cost. In 2025, the cost line support was weak, and the urea price mainly depended on fundamentals and export policies. With the expected increase in coal prices in 2026, attention should be paid to the cost support of urea [86]. Demand Analysis Overall Demand - Agricultural demand and compound fertilizer demand account for about 75% of the total urea demand [92]. Agricultural Demand - Urea agricultural demand is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, with 4 - 5 months being the peak season. In 2025, due to the recovery of grain prices and low urea prices, the procurement of urea was advanced and dispersed. It is expected that the procurement will also be advanced in 2026. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the total agricultural demand will maintain a year - on - year increase due to the popularization of high - standard farmland and related technologies [97][99]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - In 2025, the production capacity of compound fertilizer plants continued to increase, and new capacity was characterized by technological upgrading and the expansion of leading enterprises. The production of compound fertilizers first decreased and then increased. In 2025, the cost of compound fertilizers was high, the price - difference with urea widened, and the demand for urea by compound fertilizer plants was advanced. It is expected that the demand will still be advanced in 2026 [106][121]. Real Estate - related Demand - In 2025, the real estate market was in a downturn, but the central government's economic work conference set the tone to stabilize the real estate market. It is expected that the real estate market will stop falling and stabilize in 2026 [129]. Melamine Demand - From January to November 2025, the melamine production decreased. Its demand for urea has obvious seasonal characteristics and is closely related to the real estate market. The export growth of melamine has slowed down, but China is still the world's largest producer and exporter [134]. Vehicle Urea Demand - With the advancement of emission standards, the demand for vehicle urea is increasing. Although the production and sales of diesel vehicles have declined, diesel trucks still dominate the market, and the demand for vehicle urea remains strong [139]. Thermal Power Denitrification Demand - With the replacement of new energy, the proportion of thermal power is gradually decreasing, and the demand for urea in thermal power denitrification has limited growth and is mainly stable [146]. Inventory - In 2025, the urea inventory was at a high level. Affected by the high - level supply and the advance of demand, the inventory decreased until April and then increased until December. With the support of winter storage and exports, the inventory began to decrease. It is expected that the inventory in 2026 will also start at a high level and show a seasonal "V" - shaped trend [151]. Export - In 2025, 4 batches of export quotas totaling about 4.6 million tons were issued, which repeatedly boosted the market but also caused price corrections after the release of positive news. It is expected that the export policy in 2026 will be mainly relaxed, and exports will be appropriately liberalized to solve the problem of oversupply during the non - agricultural peak season. The participation in Indian tenders has been low in recent years, and the export direction has shifted to Latin America and South America [155][157][158]. International Urea - In 2025, international urea prices were affected by gas restrictions in the Middle East and Indian tenders. There was a large price - difference between the domestic Shandong market price and the export price, and exports had large profits. The large - scale exports from China also put some pressure on international urea prices [163].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - In 2025, PVC prices trended downward in a volatile manner. In 2026, demand is expected to improve slowly, with real - estate data showing a slower decline year - on - year. Indian demand and exports are likely to increase. Supply expansion will slow down, and spring maintenance may reduce supply pressure. Overall, PVC prices are expected to bottom out in a volatile way, first falling and then rising. Pay attention to changes in the operating rate. When the operating rate decreases or macro - policies are released, consider going long. If macro - policies are ineffective, PVC futures prices are expected to fall back. Spot enterprises can seize opportunities when the basis is strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: In 2025, PVC futures prices were affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, international policies and conflicts. They fell overall, with small rebounds in May and 6 - 7 months, and hit a record low in mid - December before rebounding [3][5]. - **Spot prices**: PVC spot prices followed the futures prices, with a high correlation coefficient of 0.981 between PVC futures and East China spot prices. In 2025, the basis and inter - month spreads were mostly negative, especially during the main contract change. The 01 contract basis rose to a neutral level in December, but the 05 contract basis dropped to a low level [12]. 3.2 PVC Upstream - **Calcium carbide**: In 2025, calcium carbide prices first decreased and then increased, with the overall price center shifting down. The profit of calcium carbide in Wuhai was mostly negative, but production increased by 13% from January to November. It is expected to be in a state of oversupply in 2026 [24]. - **Semi - coke**: Semi - coke prices also first decreased and then increased in 2025, mostly at the lowest level in recent years. The operating rate first decreased and then increased, and the profit was mostly in a loss state [24]. - **Caustic soda**: From January to November 2025, caustic soda production increased by 4.8% year - on - year to 42.326 million tons. Prices rose at the beginning of the year and then fell due to factors such as alumina production expectations and cost changes [25]. - **Profit**: In 2025, the external calcium carbide method and ethylene method were always in a loss state, but the caustic soda profit was good. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was mostly profitable. However, since the fourth quarter, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has been declining, and some enterprises have fallen into losses [28]. 3.3 PVC Production, Capacity and Maintenance - **Production**: In November 2025, PVC production was 2.0793 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year increase of 5.62%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 4.38% year - on - year to 22.3242 million tons [35]. - **Capacity**: In 2025, the actual PVC capacity increased by 2.08 million tons to 29.62 million tons, with a growth rate of 7.55%. In 2026, only the 300,000 - ton/year new capacity of Zhejiang Jiaxing Jiahua will be put into production, and the capacity expansion will slow down significantly [47]. - **Maintenance**: In 2025, there were few long - term shutdown and maintenance devices. Pay attention to whether the number of maintenance devices will increase significantly under the pressure of comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [49]. 3.4 PVC Import and Export - **Import**: In November 2025, China's PVC import volume was 15,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.70% and a month - on - month increase of 44.15%. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 202,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.46% [62]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the export volume was 275,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.64% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.78%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume was 3.5091 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.17%. India is the largest export destination, and the abolition of BIS certification and anti - dumping tax is beneficial to exports [62][67]. 3.5 Real - Estate Data - In 2025, from January to November, real - estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the sales area decreased by 7.8%, the sales volume decreased by 11.1%, the new construction area decreased by 20.5%, the construction area decreased by 9%, and the completion area decreased by 18.0%. In 2026, it is expected that policies will continue to support the real - estate market, but it will take time to strongly support PVC [71][74][75]. 3.6 PVC Downstream - **Operating rate**: The overall downstream operating rate of PVC was weak in 2025, especially from April to September. As of the week of December 19, it decreased by 3.50 percentage points to 45.39%. PVC film had a relatively high operating rate of about 70%, while pipes and profiles had a lower operating rate of about 40% [81][89]. - **Exports of floor coverings**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative export of PVC floor coverings was 380,380 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.88%. Exports are expected to remain at a low level due to US tariffs, but the improvement of US sales needs attention [90]. 3.7 PVC Inventory - **Factory inventory**: As of the week of December 19, 2025, the factory inventory decreased by 4.59% month - on - month to 328,500 tons, an increase of 14.86% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 22.35% compared with the beginning of the year [92]. - **Social inventory**: After seasonal inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, the social inventory decreased from mid - March and then increased continuously from July. As of the week of December 19, it decreased by 0.25% month - on - month to 1.0566 million tons, an increase of 28.58% compared with the same period last year and an increase of 33.74% compared with the beginning of the year. High inventory will limit the rebound of PVC prices [97].

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货-沪铜2026年报 --宏观基本面共振，铜市熊短牛长 核心观点 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 ➢ 宏观方面：海外方面，2025年特朗普再次任美国总统，自任职起全球贸易冲突开始，资金避险情绪高涨，有色金属、贵金属连续上涨，同时 对中国铜开启232关税调查且征收铜关税，吸引跨地区套利，导致全球铜供应结构失衡。美联储年内三次降息，美元连续下挫，支撑铜价上移， 明年预计美联储主席换届后依旧保持宽松预期。国内方面，年内反内卷举措加速供应侧产能优化升级，带动市场积极性，发改委指出铜冶炼 等强资源约束型产业要强化管理、优化布局，2026年正值"十五五" 规划的初期阶段，十五五规划将新能源产业列为战略性新兴支柱产业， 而铜作为新能源的工业血液，正在重塑全球经济版图。 ➢ 供给方面：年内多发铜矿事故扰动，加速铜供应 ...

冠通期货-聚烯烃2026年报 --产能投放周期仍未结束，关注成本压力下的开工 研究咨询部 苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 时间：2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 1 2025年聚烯烃（塑料和PP）整体呈现偏弱震荡走势，刷新2021年以来的低点，塑料加权跌幅22%，PP加权跌幅16%。年初，万华化学 等多套新增产能量产，季节性检修力度也不大，春节后，下游逐渐复工，但不及往年同期水平，特朗普的全球贸易战，更是引发对 于聚烯烃需求的担忧，加之原油价格下跌，聚烯烃期价持续下跌。聚烯烃进入检修旺季，叠加反内卷情绪下，市场得到提振，只是 聚烯烃行业自身并未有反内卷政策限制供应，聚烯烃在6-8月窄幅震荡。进入9月，下游需求金九银十旺季表现不及预期，市场未有 大规模的备货，加上新增产能的持续投放，石化库存偏高，原油、煤炭价格的疲软也在成本端施压，化工品情绪受挫，聚烯烃期价 持续下跌。 展望2026年，聚烯烃下游延续备货谨慎，呈季节性波动 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology has planned ten key tasks for 2026, including rectifying "involution - style" competition, supporting AI research, and launching the "Broadband Upgrade" project [2] - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met to discuss a proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", with a potential strong US - Ukraine security agreement under negotiation [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has provided compliance guidance on regulating price competition in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the price limit and margin standards for certain futures contracts during the 2026 New Year's Day holiday [2] - The dates for the 2026 National Two Sessions have been set, with the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference starting on March 4 and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress starting on March 5 [3] 2. Plate Performance - **Key Focus**: Urea, Shanghai copper, Shanghai silver, crude oil, and lithium carbonate [4] - **Night - session Performance**: Different commodity futures sectors showed varying degrees of increase, with the precious metals sector having a 34.79% increase, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector at 25.43%, and the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector at 9.89% [4] 3. Plate Position - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, but specific data is not clearly presented in text [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: Most major stock indices showed positive daily, monthly, and annual returns, with the CSI 500 having a relatively high annual increase of 30.27% [6] - **Fixed - income**: Treasury futures generally had small daily increases but negative annual returns [6] - **Commodity**: There were significant differences in performance. For example, the London spot gold had an annual increase of 72.72%, while the CRB commodity index had an annual decrease of 20.88% [6] - **Others**: The US dollar index had a negative annual return of - 9.63%, and the CBOE volatility index also showed a significant annual decline [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 发布日期： 2025/12/29 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.31%报 4562.00 美元/盎司， 周涨 3.98%。COMEX 白银期货涨 11.15%报 79.68 美元/盎司，周涨 18.06%。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 2.43%，报 56.93 美元/桶，周 ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1730 1730 0 河南 1710 1710 0 山东 1730 1730 0 山西 1580 1580 0 江苏 1720 1720 0 安徽 1720 1720 0 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1720 1720 0 山东华鲁 1710 1710 0 江苏灵谷 1760 1750 10 安徽昊源 1690 1690 0 山东05基差 -5 -1 -4 山东01基差 18 15 3 河北05基差 -5 9 -14 河北01基差 18 25 -7 1-5价差 68 62 6 5-9价差 23 16 7 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 10750 10750 0 中东FOB 378.5 378.5 0 美湾FOB 368.5 368.5 0 埃及FOB 435 435 0 波罗的海FOB 365 365 0 巴西CFR 402.5 402.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 2025/12/26 指标 一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market showed an upward trend with a nearly 4% intraday increase. The news of zero long - term pricing for mine - end processing fees boosted market sentiment, leading to consecutive days of rising copper prices. Attention should be paid to the psychological resistance level of 100,000 yuan [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, rising nearly 4% intraday. In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons (11.76%). SMM predicts that the production in December will increase by 65,700 tons (5.96%) month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year. The profit of copper products was squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, with capacity utilization declining. Copper tube enterprises were constrained by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil remained highly prosperous due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new energy vehicles. The inventory of cathode copper at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to accumulate, indicating a decline in downstream purchasing power. The National Development and Reform Commission's statement on traditional industries also stimulated the market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, rising nearly 4% intraday. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 360 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 200 yuan/ton. On December 25, 2025, the LME official price was $12,218/ton, and the spot premium was + $35/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of December 22, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 58,600 tons, a decrease of 436 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 96,500 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,000 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 479,500 short tons, an increase of 4,276 short tons from the previous period [11].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and others 1. Market Performance Summary Commodity Futures - As of the close on October 16, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Platinum rose over 9%, lithium carbonate over 8%, Shanghai silver over 6%, and alumina over 5%. International copper, Shanghai copper, and p-xylene (PX) rose over 3%, while PTA and styrene rose nearly 3%. On the downside, palladium fell over 2%, and polysilicon, coking coal, and coke fell over 1%. [6] Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.48%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.51%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 0.80%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 0.57%. [7] Treasury Bond Futures - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.01%, 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) fell 0.01%, 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) rose 0.06%, and 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) rose 0.42%. [7] Fund Flows - As of 15:21 on December 26, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 5.103 billion yuan, CSI 1000 2603 had an inflow of 4.688 billion yuan, and SSE 2603 had an inflow of 3.916 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Shanghai silver 2602 had an outflow of 854 million yuan, polysilicon 2605 had an outflow of 662 million yuan, and rebar 2605 had an outflow of 227 million yuan. [7] 2. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - **Price Movement**: Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, rising nearly 4% on the day. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees boosted market sentiment. [9] - **Supply**: In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05% MoM, 9.75% YoY). From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons (11.76% YoY). SMM expects December production to increase by 65,700 tons (5.96% MoM, 6.69% YoY). [9] - **Demand**: Copper product profits were squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip was weak. Copper tube enterprises were constrained by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil remained highly prosperous due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles. [9] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cathode copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to accumulate, indicating a decline in downstream purchasing power. [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: Lithium carbonate opened and closed higher, rising over 8% on the day. [11] - **Supply**: This week, the capacity utilization rate was 83.52%, significantly higher year - on - year. In November, the output was 93,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,596 tons, and the predicted output for next month is about 98,450 tons. [11] - **Demand**: Although the growth of downstream energy - storage batteries slowed down, it still maintained growth, and there was an expectation of price increase for lithium iron phosphate, supporting the price of lithium carbonate. However, the terminal peak season is coming to an end, and the purchase tax will be halved from next year, which may lead to pre - demand this month. [11] - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the inventory of smelters decreased by 1,071 physical tons, and the downstream inventory decreased by 1,253 physical tons. The total inventory decreased by 1,044 physical tons. [11] Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ 8 additional voluntary - production - cut countries reiterated the suspension of production increase in Q1 2026. US crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. [12] - **Demand**: The peak season of crude oil demand ended. EIA data showed that the decline in US crude oil inventory was slightly lower than expected, while the increase in refined - oil inventory exceeded expectations, and the overall oil inventory increased. [12] - **Geopolitical Factors**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela escalated, and the EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for 6 months. There are concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues, but the market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. [12][14] Asphalt - **Supply**: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%, and the expected production in January 2026 is 2 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% MoM and 12.1% YoY. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residue or stop production next week. [15] - **Demand**: Downstream operating rates mostly declined, affected by funds and weather. Southern demand was average, and low - price goods in the South had good sales. Northern winter - storage demand continued to be released. [15] - **Price Outlook**: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela. [15] PP - **Supply**: As of December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%. The PP enterprise operating rate decreased to about 81.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring decreased to about 26.5%. New capacity was put into operation, and there were more maintenance devices recently. [17] - **Demand**: Downstream entered the end of the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the market lacked large - scale centralized purchases. [17] - **Price Outlook**: The upward space of PP is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow. [17] Plastic - **Supply**: On December 26, the plastic operating rate remained at about 87.5%. New capacity was put into operation in October and November, and the operating rate increased slightly. [18] - **Demand**: The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83%. The agricultural film season ended, orders continued to decline, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. [18] - **Price Outlook**: The upward space of plastic is limited in the near future, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow. [19] PVC - **Supply**: The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. New capacity was put into trial production. [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and export sales increased slightly but faced price and demand limitations in the Indian market. [20] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly and remained high. [20] - **Price Outlook**: PVC is expected to fluctuate. [20] Coking Coal - **Supply**: Near the end of the year, some mines planned to reduce production, but imported coal increased, and port and total inventories increased. [21][22] - **Demand**: Downstream demand was weak, and steel mills and coking enterprises had less inventory replenishment. [22] - **Price Outlook**: The market was in a low - level shock. [22] Urea - **Supply**: The current daily output is 190,000 tons. In January, there are plans for some gas - based devices in the southwest to stop production, but also many devices to resume production. [23] - **Demand**: The operating load of compound fertilizer factories continued to decline, mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions in North China. After the environmental protection restrictions are lifted, the operating rate may recover. [23] - **Inventory**: The inventory reduction increased, mainly due to partial production cuts of upstream and downstream devices. [23] - **Price Outlook**: Urea is expected to fluctuate narrowly, mainly determined by the game between downstream inventory replenishment and daily output. [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 26, 2025, the plastic market showed a pattern of oscillating upward, but the overall supply - demand situation remained unchanged, and the recent upward space of plastic is expected to be limited. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 87.5%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points week - on - week to 41.83%. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories decreasing. Packaging film orders also slightly decreased. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Near the end of the month, petrochemical de - stocking accelerated, but the petrochemical inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. With an oversupply of crude oil and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently. With the slowdown of terminal construction and reduced demand in the north, downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Some industries have entered the off - season, and traders are cautious about the future market and are actively reducing prices to sell goods [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract oscillated upward with reduced positions, with a minimum price of 6323 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6476 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6465 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 15,696 lots to 526,703 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 87.5%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points week - on - week to 41.83%. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories decreasing. Packaging film orders also slightly decreased, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - **Inventory**: On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 50,000 tons week - on - week to 560,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical de - stocking accelerated, but the petrochemical inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4].