地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/25 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货收跌 0.01%报 4505.4 美元/盎司； COMEX 白银期货收涨 1.04%报 71.875 美元/盎司，继续刷新历史新高。 2. 国际油价涨跌不一，美油主力合约收涨 0.03%报 58.4 美元 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic News - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its fourth - quarter meeting in 2025, deciding to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, and strengthening the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices [2] - On December 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term [2] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased last week, but the unemployment rate may remain high in December due to weak employment. As of the week ending December 20, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 214,000 [2] - In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. From January to November, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 9,460.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, and the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 8,856.7 billion kWh [2] - On December 23, the assistant minister of the Ministry of Commerce, Zhang Li, chaired a round - table meeting for foreign trade enterprises, stating that the Ministry of Commerce will increase policy support to promote the innovative development of foreign trade and achieve a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan for foreign trade [3] Group 2: Commodity Market Focus - Key commodities to focus on are silver, Shanghai tin, ethylene glycol, Shanghai nickel, and PVC [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.21%, precious metals 34.91%, oilseeds and oils 7.85%, soft commodities 3.08%, non - ferrous metals 25.02%, coal, coke, steel and ore 10.10%, energy 2.24%, chemicals 10.07%, grains 1.17%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.35% [4] Position Changes - The position changes of different commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented in the chart, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, steel and ore, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind comprehensive commodities, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [6] Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of major stock indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index daily change 0.53%, monthly change 1.35%, annual change 17.58%; SSE 50 daily change - 0.08%, monthly change 1.87%, annual change 12.68%; CSI 300 daily change 0.29%, monthly change 2.37%, annual change 17.77%; CSI 500 daily change 1.31%, monthly change 4.56%, annual change 28.40%; S&P 500 daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.89%, annual change 17.48%; Hang Seng Index daily change 0.17%, monthly change - 0.15%, annual change 28.71%; German DAX daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.11%, annual change 22.26%; Nikkei 225 daily change - 0.14%, monthly change 0.18%, annual change 26.19%; UK FTSE 100 daily change 0.00%, monthly change 1.74%, annual change 21.00% [7] Fixed - income - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of major bond futures are as follows: 10 - year bond futures daily change 0.02%, monthly change 0.27%, annual change - 0.64%; 5 - year bond futures daily change - 0.01%, monthly change 0.26%, annual change - 0.48%; 2 - year bond futures daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.14%, annual change - 0.44% [7] Commodities - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of major commodities are as follows: CRB commodity index daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.06%, annual change 1.67%; WTI crude oil daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.09%, annual change - 18.73%; London spot gold daily change 0.00%, monthly change 6.31%, annual change 70.91%; LME copper daily change 0.00%, monthly change 7.87%, annual change 37.28%; Wind commodity index daily change 3.07%, monthly change 18.07%, annual change 57.97% [7] Others - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of other assets are as follows: US dollar index daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 1.54%, annual change - 9.75%; CBOE volatility index daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 14.37%, annual change - 19.31% [7] Group 4: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premiums of the A - share market (excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals), SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [8]

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1730 1730 0 河南 1710 1680 30 山东 1730 1720 10 山西 1580 1560 20 江苏 1720 1710 10 安徽 1710 1700 10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1720 1720 0 山东华鲁 1690 1690 0 江苏灵谷 1750 1750 0 安徽昊源 1680 1670 10 山东05基差 32 13 19 山东01基差 48 32 16 河北05基差 32 33 -1 河北01基差 48 52 -4 1-5价差 49 45 4 5-9价差 16 19 -3 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 10432 10532 -100 中东FOB 378.5 378.5 0 美湾FOB 368.5 368.5 0 埃及FOB 435 435 0 波罗的海FOB 365 365 0 巴西CFR 402.5 402.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 2025/12/24 指标 一周走势 现货 基差 月差 仓单 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开 ...

本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 24 日收盘，国内期货主力合约多数上涨。广期所铂、钯 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market is showing a trend of oscillating upward, but the upward space in the near - term is limited. The PVC supply side has reduced开工率, but there is new production capacity. The demand side is affected by the slow improvement of the real - estate market, and the inventory is still at a high level. The market sentiment is boosted by the rebound of bulk commodities, but factors such as low prices in the Indian market and high futures warehouse receipts also have an impact on the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 has decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has dropped by 3.5 percentage points, and the orders for downstream products are not good. The export has increased slightly by trading at a lower price, but the demand in the Indian market is limited. The social inventory has slightly decreased but is still high. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. New production capacity has been put into operation. Although the market sentiment has been boosted, the upward space of PVC in the near - term is limited [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 4,704 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,785 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,781 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. The position increased by 8,434 lots to 973,277 lots [2] 3.3 Basis - On December 24, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,450 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,785 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 335 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking 3.4.1 Supply - Affected by the devices of Ningbo Hanwha, Leshan Yongxiang, etc., the PVC开工率 has decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) have been put into operation in the second half of the year [4] 3.4.2 Demand - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of commercial housing all decreased year - on - year. As of the week of December 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [5] 3.4.3 Inventory - As of the week of December 18, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons, 28.58% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory has slightly decreased but is still high [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：晨光微露 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 棉花：上周（12 月 15 日-12 月 21 日），新疆绝大多数加工企业已结束收购， 仅剩南疆个别地区仍有零星交售，收购量持续下降，籽棉价格基本稳定，机采棉 在 5.4-5.8 元/公斤之间，手摘棉在 6.4-6.8 元/公斤之间。截止 12 月 20 日，全 国共有 1086 家棉花加工企业进行公证检验，检验重量 577.8 万吨。其中新疆 1012 家加工企业，检验重量 571.3 万吨；内地 74 家加工企业，检验重量 6.5 万吨。 现货宽松下，远月种植面积结构调整引发盘面出现一定反弹，而近月出口需 求转好，而供应压力最大阶段已经过去，这使得目前棉花市场稳中偏好，但是内 外棉价差扩大，后续关注进口棉是否会有增量，短期预估震荡偏强为主，中长期 棉花存在供应端削减后的供需结构重置。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 成一定支撑。今天盘面出现明显反弹，后续关注双节备货，或仍对于价格产生较 强支撑，在远月有明显供应端缩减预期的背景下，预估在 2026 年上半年，白 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 24, 2025, Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. The production of electrolytic copper in China in November increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and SMM expects a further increase in December. The profit of copper products was squeezed this week, the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the market trading activity was suppressed. Copper foil maintained a high - prosperity level. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, and the Fed's game and the rise of precious metals were beneficial to copper prices, but the weak procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises may lead to a spot price correction [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. The profit of copper products was squeezed this week, the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil maintained a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, and the Fed's game and the rise of precious metals were beneficial to copper prices, but the weak procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises may lead to a spot price correction [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. Spot: On December 24, 2025, the spot premium in East China was - 290 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 150 yuan/ton. On December 22, 2025, the LME official price was $12,039/ton, and the spot premium was + $31/ton [4]. 3. Supply Side - As of December 22, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 52,200 tons, an increase of 2,679 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,000 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 471,600 short tons, an increase of 4,276 short tons from the previous period [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged. Although the sentiment of bulk commodities has been boosted, the upward space of plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to the recent new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On December 24, the number of plastic maintenance devices changed little, with the plastic operating rate remaining at around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week as of the week ending December 19. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory continuing to decline. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the destocking is slow. With an oversupply of crude oil and the escalation of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. The downstream construction has slowed down, demand in the north has decreased, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. [1][4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2605 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6284 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6418 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6408 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.99%. The position decreased by 41,207 lots to 540,352 lots [2]. Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6150 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7740 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory continuing to decline. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical destocking has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 725 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 745 US dollars/ton [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：库存去化幅度加深 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开高走，日内上涨。期货连续两日上涨的影响，现货挺价明 显，今日工厂多提价。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多 在 1620-1700 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端，河北及山东部分工厂报价偏高端。 基本面来看，目前日产 19 万吨，宽松压力没有缓解，气头日产偏高于历年同 期，限气停产未明显压低产量。复合肥成本居于高位，终端发运尚可，但受环 保限制，下游开工有影响，关注后续开工数据情况。前期保供稳价专题会议过 后，预计冬储采购原料及生产端将有序平稳运行，其他工业需求虽终端逐步进 入淡季但依然有韧性支撑。本期库存去化幅度增大，主要系近期上下游的装置 均有部分减产，目前同步去年偏低 45.61 万吨。综合来看，前期印标引起外盘 上涨后，国内盘面情绪再受刺激上行，叠加出口政策传闻影响，连续上涨两 日，但目前无明确官方政策，谨慎行情变化，上有高位日产压制，下游需求韧 性托底，尿素多空博弈。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1721 元/吨开盘, 高开高走，日内上涨，最 终收于 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to have limited upside potential due to unchanged overall supply - demand patterns, shortened downstream order cycles, and some falling PP spot prices [1]. - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there are new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the peak season for agricultural films is ending [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 19, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring grade, dropped 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - On December 24, new maintenance devices were added at Guangzhou Petrochemical, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawstring grade decreased to around 27% [1][4]. - The petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the destocking is slow. The cost of crude oil has limited rebound due to oversupply and geopolitical issues. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into production in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders are decreasing, and the market lacks large - scale centralized purchases [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in a volatile manner with a reduced position. The lowest price was 6,157 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,281 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,278 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.93%. The open interest decreased by 18,588 lots to 539,752 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawstring grade was quoted at 5,900 - 6,260 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 24, new maintenance devices were added at Guangzhou Petrochemical, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawstring grade decreased to around 27% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring grade, dropped 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The petrochemical destocking is slow recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR price of propylene in China remained flat at $740 per ton week - on - week [6].