1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the breeding industry chain continues to be weak. Soybean prices are expected to continue the range - bound trend, corn prices are expected to be in a strong - side shock before the festival, egg contracts are in a shock with no trend - like market, and the pig market needs to wait for an obvious trend - like market [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are of high - quality and high - price, with low - protein soybeans having greater shipping pressure, and overall prices are stable. The winning bid rate of 211,108 tons of 2022 domestic soybean auction by Sinograin on Monday was 62%. Since the autumn listing, domestic soybeans have shown a pattern of low opening and high going, and Sinograin's purchase price of standard soybeans meeting futures delivery requirements is 2.025 yuan per catty. There is a strong policy support, with a two - way restraint between policy support and auction volume increase. The trend of soybean No.1 is expected to continue the range - bound trend [1] 3.2 Corn - Affected by the cold air, from December 22 to 25, most parts of China will experience temperature drops, and some areas will have heavy snow or blizzards. The snowy weather in the production areas will interfere with domestic grain transportation, while the weather in the sales areas is conducive to transportation. The cold and snowy weather in the production areas is not conducive to purchasing and sales activities, but helps the corn market to rise. The release of negative news such as regulatory reserve releases has alleviated the previous supply - demand mismatch contradiction, curbing price increases. Corn is expected to remain volatile before the festival, with limited upside space in the short - term [1] 3.3 Egg - In November, the national inventory of laying hens was still 1.307 billion, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.31%, but still at a high level in the same period in recent years. The daily egg production is sufficient, and the market circulation pressure remains high. The short - term supply is still loose. The near - month spot remains in a volatile trend, and the far - month contract is in a tug - of - war between capacity reduction expectations and the slower - than - expected actual progress. There is currently no trend - like market, and the far - month contract has certain expected support but needs time to verify [2] 3.4 Pig - Currently, the temperature in the south is dropping slowly, and the demand for curing in the south is less than expected. The relatively late Spring Festival next year also delays some concentrated procurement demand, and the support from the consumption side for pig prices is limited. The supply - side pressure remains. Near the end of the year, some farmers need to cash in, and group pig enterprises have the phenomenon of increasing year - end sales. The spot supply pressure of pigs is still large, but the decline in the near - month inventory, especially the inventory of breeding sows, makes the far - month contracts next year have the possibility of rising, but this price increase will be reflected on the market at least after the Spring Festival. The pig market needs to wait for an obvious trend - like market, and whether the far - month price is undervalued is worthy of attention [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term prices of both glass and soda ash may fluctuate. For glass, although there are short - term supports from macro - sentiment and coal price rebound, its upward driving force is insufficient. For soda ash, despite short - term support from continuous losses, slight de - stocking, and coal price rebound, the overall supply is still in surplus and the demand is expected to weaken [3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Spot Market**: In the North China market, transactions are relatively flexible with prices weakly operating; in the East China market, enterprises purchase cautiously and some manufacturers' quotes are loose; in the Central China market, overall transactions are weak with a few prices falling; in the South China region, shipments are okay and most are on the sidelines. The market is generally not optimistic about year - end demand, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs [1] - **Supply**: As of December 18, the daily average output of national float glass was 155,000 tons, with a weekly output of 1.0849 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 3.24%. The industry average operating rate was 73.99%, a 0.14% week - on - week increase; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, unchanged from the previous week. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold repair, reigniting the expectation of production line cold repair [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.558 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 331,000 heavy boxes, a 0.57% increase, and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period [1] - **Demand**: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; residential investment was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The funds in place of real estate development enterprises were 8514.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a 4.2% week - on - week decrease and a 22.6% year - on - year decrease [2] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the profit of natural - gas - fired production lines was - 181.4 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 15.02 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production lines was - 0.07 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 35.71 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production lines was - 7.63 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 14.14 yuan/ton) [2] Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The spot market of soda ash fluctuates, with the trading center moving down. Enterprise devices fluctuate slightly, and the output of individual enterprises increases. Near the end of the month, downstream enterprises have poor purchasing sentiment, mostly on the sidelines, maintaining just - in - time procurement at low prices [4] - **Supply**: Last week, the soda ash output was 721,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, a decline of 1.91%. The output of light soda ash was 331,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was 390,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,000 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 82.74%, down 1.61% from the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 87.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. Although the new capacity of Alxa Phase II was put into production recently, the overall industry operating rate has been adjusted down, and the short - term supply pressure has been slightly relieved [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic manufacturers was 1.5004 million tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 0.07%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 729,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 771,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons [4] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for soda ash is average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash is relatively stable, while the overall situation of heavy soda ash downstream is weak. In the short term, the production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the overall rigid demand fluctuates little. However, there is still an expectation of glass cold repair at the end of the month, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash may weaken [4] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the combined - soda process was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 66.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt remained stable, and the price of thermal coal continued to decline, weakening the cost support [5]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly with a high - yield expectation. U.S. soybeans have resumed sales to China, but the sales progress is significantly lower than the same period last year, leading to continued weakness in U.S. soybeans. Rumors of imported soybean reserves release after New Year's Day and the pre - placement of some February reserves to January have weakened the near - month spot market. The far - month contracts are expected to remain weak with no sign of all bad news being priced in [2]. - Indonesia's biofuel policy has limited development space due to poor economic viability. The implementation of the U.S. renewable diesel tax credit policy in January can enhance the competitiveness of U.S. biodiesel. After a short - term rebound in the oil and fat sector following crude oil, the futures - spot basis has narrowed. The subsequent upward drive of the market depends on the U.S. biofuel policy. Short - term spot purchases can be made appropriately, but conservative operations are recommended before the U.S. biofuel policy is fully implemented [2][3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Soybean Meal - The estimated output of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop is 178.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with a forecast range of 174.1 - 182.6 million tons [1]. - As of the week ending December 11, U.S. soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 2.4247 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean export sales increased by 54% from the previous week and 69% from the four - week average, with net sales to the Chinese mainland at 1.383 million tons. Next - year's soybean export sales had a net increase of 28,500 tons. U.S. soybean exports for shipment were 721,300 tons, down 33% from the previous week and 31% from the four - week average, with 202,000 tons shipped to the Chinese mainland. Current - market - year new soybean sales were 2.4189 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 28,500 tons [1]. Oils and Fats - Indonesia's biofuel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters, slightly higher than the 15.6 million kiloliters in 2025 [2]. - The market speculates that the Trump administration will decide on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Since January 1, U.S. biodiesel producers' tax credit will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and renewable diesel producers' to 53 cents per gallon [2].

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 一、市场行情回顾 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 12 月 18 日热卷周产量环比下降 16.8 万吨至 291.91 万吨。 公历同比下降 20.81 万吨。本周热卷产量大幅下滑，回落至年内最低水平，且处 于近 4 年低位，提升价格支撑。减产主要由于利润收缩，钢厂检修增多，部分钢 厂向螺纹钢转产，季节性淡季。 ■需求端：截止 12 月 18 日周度表观消费量环比下降 13.69 万吨至 298.28 万吨，公历同比下降 13.69 万吨。本周表需下滑较多，但低于产量下滑速度。关 注 12 月下旬到 1 月的冬储行情。 ■库存端：截止 12 月 18 日总库存周环比下降 6.37 万吨至 390.72 万吨（社 会库存降 5.76 万吨，钢厂库存降 0.61 万吨，总库存降 6.37 万吨），总库存维 持去库，但总库存处于近 4 年高位。后续需要关注库存继续去库速度。 ■政策面：钢材出口许可证管理新规出台，短期将导致出口波动，供应增加， 价格承压，长期则推动产业升级，结构优化，竞争力提升。12 月召开的中央经 济 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续偏强运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 19 日独立焦企焦炭库存增加 3.78 万吨 91.1 万吨，钢 厂焦炭库存则下降 1.55 万吨至 633.73 万吨，因港口焦炭库存减少 9.15 万吨， 焦炭综合库存下降 0.71%至 964.28 万吨,同比增幅回落至 4.93%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利 16 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利 35 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 65 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-23 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利 66 元/吨。 下游需求，247 家钢厂盈利率较上周持平，高炉开工率环比下降 0.16%至 78.47%，高炉炼铁产能利用率减少 0.99%至 84.93%，日均铁水产量较上周减少 2.65 万吨至 226.55 万吨，为今年 2 月份以来最低值，同比去年减少 2.86 万吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期现行情】 期货盘面：05 焦炭开盘 1741，收盘 1746，减仓 552 手，短 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current market has low supply, rising demand, strong raw materials, and inventory de - stocking, which provides support. The market has digested the off - season demand and steel export license news. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future. In the short term, it is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start time of winter storage demand [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The open interest of the main rebar contract increased by 17,388 lots on Tuesday. The trading volume slightly decreased compared with the previous trading day. It fluctuated within the day, with the lowest at 3,111 yuan/ton, the highest at 3,144 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,136 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.06%. The trading volume was 837,866 lots [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,320 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 184 yuan/ton compared with the spot price, which provided some support for the futures price [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 18, rebar production increased by 29,000 tons week - on - week to 1.8168 million tons, and decreased by 370,500 tons year - on - year. The production was at a near - 4 - year low. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.47%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and 1.16% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged from last week. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 26,500 tons to 2.2655 million tons, down 28,600 tons year - on - year [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak, with the average daily trading volume of building materials nationwide maintaining at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a near - 5 - year low. As of the week of December 18, the apparent consumption increased by 55,500 tons week - on - week to 2.0864 million tons, and decreased by 300,400 tons year - on - year, at a near - 4 - year low. There were regional differences in demand. Construction in the north stagnated due to cold weather, while in the south, existing projects rushed to complete, and demand had good resilience. The increase in apparent demand was higher than that in production. There was a possibility of winter storage driving demand later [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory continued to decline, and the decline rate increased. As of the week of December 18, the total inventory decreased by 269,600 tons week - on - week to 4.5254 million tons, with an 8 - week consecutive decline, but still 495,200 tons higher year - on - year. Social inventory was 3.13 million tons, down 257,000 tons week - on - week, and the de - stocking accelerated. Steel mill inventory was 1.3954 million tons, slightly down 12,600 tons. The de - stocking of social inventory showed the current demand resilience. The overall inventory pressure was still controllable [3][4]. Macroeconomic aspect The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality" [4]. Cost aspect Iron ore was strong, and coking coal and coke futures stabilized and rose, which continued to increase cost support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, rising apparent demand, continuous inventory de - stocking, loose policy expectations, large discount on the futures market providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and significant rebound of coking coal and coke to increase cost support [6]. - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [6]. Short - term View Summary The market is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start time of winter storage demand [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the gradual ebb of macro - event disturbances, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With stable and rising shipments, weak rigid demand, and inventory accumulation, the overall fundamentals are weak. However, the back structure of futures contracts and the positive basis provide some support to the futures price. Overall, it shows a range - bound pattern mainly [4] Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated within the day, closing at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a decline rate of +0.13%. The trading volume was 216,000 lots, the open interest was 553,000 lots, and the precipitated funds were nearly 9.5 billion yuan. The disk price was in a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1] - Spot prices: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 3 to 787, and Super Special powder dropped 3 to 672. The main swap was at 104.2 (-0.7) US dollars/ton. Spot prices fell slightly, and swap prices also declined [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the disk was 819.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 39.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 18.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 21.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and there was also some support below the futures [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil weakened, especially in Brazil, while shipments from non - mainstream countries increased month - on - month. The current arrivals decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand: In the seasonal off - season, both environmental protection and annual maintenance continued. Coupled with stricter environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and delays in blast furnace复产, molten iron continued to decline significantly and exceeded expectations. The profitability rate of steel mills remained flat month - on - month, and there was still an expectation of further weakening of molten iron. The release of restocking demand was still slow [2] - Inventory: Port unloading and warehousing accelerated, showing signs of further inventory accumulation. Inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The arrivals within the week increased, and the congestion situation improved. Steel mill inventories continued to decline. Against the background of the decline of molten iron, the daily consumption decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased. The spot price of iron ore was relatively firm, and steel mills actively reduced normal inventory and had a weak willingness to replenish further [2] Macroeconomic Factors - Overseas: The recent combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair replacement" in the US is conducive to the Fed's easing. The quality of economic data in January is expected to return to normal levels and provide more guidance for the market. The overseas macro - environment will continue to warm up in 2026. The "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy in the US is conducive to promoting economic prosperity. The ECB announced in December to keep interest rates unchanged and raised the GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as scheduled without radical tightening, raising the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and maintaining the forecast for 2026 [3] - Domestic: On December 23, the National Conference on Housing and Urban - Rural Development was held in Beijing. The meeting deployed tasks for 2026, including urban renewal, stabilizing the real estate market, and upgrading the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks was still a highlight, with deployments for gas pipelines and drainage and flood prevention projects, and it is expected that the capital investment will increase slightly next year. In addition, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The weakening of commodity retail was the main drag factor, while service consumption continued to improve. In terms of investment, manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment continued to weaken, while exports performed well and remained an important support [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 【宏观面分析】 按照国务院安委会办公室统一部署，由国家矿山安监局、公安部、自然资源 部、生态环境部、市场监管总局、国家能源局等部门带队的 6 个专项工作组，近 日分两批赴全国 12 个重点地区，开展针对废弃矿洞排查封堵整治、严厉打击盗 采盗挖矿产资源行为的明查暗访工作。 商务部召开党组扩大会议：要大力提振消费。 招商轮船公告称：公司在大连船舶重工集团有限公司订造的全球首艘甲醇双 燃料动力 VLCC 油轮"凯拓"轮于 2025 年 12 月 22 日在大连交付。 【期现行情分析】 甲醇日报：伊朗装置反复扰动市场情绪 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 【基本面分析】 库存方面：截至 2025 年 12 月 17 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 121.88 万吨， 较上一期数据减少 1.56 万吨。其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 3.10 万吨；华南 地区累库，库存增加 1.54 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存窄幅去库，周期内显性外轮 卸货计入 21.09 万吨，江内有 10.66 万吨在靠船货尚未计入库存。周内华东主流 社会库提货延续良好，浙江有烯烃工厂停车检修继续影响消费。本周华南港口库 存 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The marginal improvement in the aromatics industry chain is observed, but there are expectations of weak demand during the off - season [1] - The pure benzene market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down [1] - The styrene market may experience seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March according to past industry rules [2] - The pure benzene futures market should be treated with a volatile mindset, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous lows [4] - The styrene futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous lows [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Analysis Pure Benzene - Production profits: Caprolactam production profit is - 350 yuan/ton (- 40), phenol - acetone production profit is - 927 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 789 yuan/ton (+178), and adipic acid production profit is - 1018 yuan/ton (- 11) [1] - Operating rates: Caprolactam operating rate is 69.20% (- 5.37%), phenol operating rate is 76.00% (- 3.50%), aniline operating rate is 61.35% (- 14.59%), and adipic acid operating rate is 59.60% (+0.40%) [1] - Supply and demand: Due to tariff issues, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China increased, with concentrated imports arriving at ports. There is obvious pressure on port inventory, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1] Styrene - Production and utilization: From December 12th to 18th, China's styrene factory production was 34.68 tons (+2.38% compared to the previous period), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 69.13% (+1.02% month - on - month) [2] - Downstream consumption: The consumption of styrene downstream products EPS, PS, and ABS was 26.18 tons (- 3.89% month - on - month) [2] - Inventory: Styrene factory inventory was 17.10 tons (- 4.23% compared to last week), as of December 22nd, the East China port inventory was 13.93 tons (+3.41% compared to last week), and the South China port inventory was 1.1 tons (- 26.67% compared to last week) [2] - Profits: As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", which will come into effect on February 1st, 2026, aiming to guide foreign investment in advanced manufacturing and modern service industries [3] - In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [3] 3. Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene futures continued to fluctuate during the day, with significant upward pressure. Due to inventory pressure from concentrated imports, it maintained a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous lows [4] - Styrene futures rebounded during the day, rising 0.87%, and tested the pressure of the 60 - day moving average on the daily K - line for the second time, with a certain possibility of breakthrough. Considering the seasonal inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, it is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous lows [4]

Section 1: Overnight Market Trends - The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.79% to $58.47 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.62% to $61.96 per barrel [5] - Most London base metals rose, with LME nickel up 2.38% at $15,640.00 per ton, LME copper up 1.09% at $12,055.00 per ton, etc [5] - As of 23:00, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with caustic soda up over 2%, PX up over 1%, etc; some contracts like butadiene rubber fell [6] - As of 1:00, Shanghai copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. main contracts had different changes, with Shanghai nickel up 2.52% and Shanghai tin down 1.63% [6] - As of 2:30, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts rose [7] Section 2: Important News Macroeconomic News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued opinions to promote the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation, aiming for a total installed capacity of about 15 million kilowatts by 2030 [9] - The US economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years in Q3, with real GDP annualized quarterly rate at 4.3% [9] - Investors reduced bets on the Fed's rate cut next year, with the probability of a rate cut in the January 28 meeting at about 17% [10] - US Treasury Secretary Baysent supported re - considering the Fed's 2% inflation target, with possible adjusted ranges [11] - US President Trump commented on Q3 GDP data and criticized the market's reaction to good news [11] - The US has dispatched a large number of special - operations aircraft and transport planes to the Caribbean [12] Energy and Chemical Futures - ANRPC predicted a 2.6% drop in global natural rubber production to 1.474 million tons in November 2025 and a 1.4% drop in consumption to 1.248 million tons [14] - US API crude oil inventory increased by 2.391 million barrels in the week ending December 19 [15] Metal Futures - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of high volatility in precious metals prices and urged risk prevention [17] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees, price limits, and margin standards for some contracts and restricted daily opening positions for polysilicon futures [18] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Tin Branch issued an initiative due to high costs for SMEs [19] - Gold jewelry prices in China rose, and the water - shell market no longer distinguished between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" [19] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Branch reported the November 2025 lithium industry situation [19] - Indonesia's environment ministry shut down 5 mines in West Sumatra [20] Black - Series Futures - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference planned to stabilize the real estate market in 2026 [22] - Global crude steel production in November 2025 was 140.1 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year decrease [22] - As of mid - December, steel social inventory decreased by 5.9% month - on - month [24] - China's 47 - port imported iron ore inventory increased by 3.4349 million tons [24] - Australian and Brazilian major port iron ore inventory rose slightly [24] Agricultural Product Futures - Shanghai will include pig income insurance in the municipal financial agricultural insurance premium subsidy program [26] - US soybean export net sales in the week ending December 11 were 2.396 million tons [26] - Indonesia planned to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% in 2026 [27] - The US agreed to exempt tariffs on some Indonesian products [28] - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to return to normal in 2026 [28] - Domestic soybean meal inventory increased, and the de - stocking trend may not continue [28] Section 3: Financial Markets Financial - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.07%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.27%, etc [30] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.11%, and some stocks had different performances [30] - Newly - issued equity funds' scale exceeded 400 billion shares this year [30] - Public fund institutions discussed 2026 investment opportunities, and the market may have dual - driven growth [32] - Analysts expected a "spring rally" in the stock market [32] - Blue Arrow Aerospace completed its IPO guidance for the Science and Technology Innovation Board [32] Industry - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference deployed 2026 real estate tasks [33] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration promoted solar thermal power generation development [34] - China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure increased by 52% year - on - year as of November [34] - The National Cultural Heritage Administration investigated the Nanjing Museum's cultural relic management issue [36] - New regulations for food live - streaming e - commerce are to be announced [36] - The Long March 12A rocket completed its maiden flight [36] - Beijing issued the first L3 - level highway autonomous driving vehicle license plates [36] - The "Guangdong cars enter Hong Kong" policy was implemented [36] Overseas - US President Trump hoped the next Fed chair would cut rates during good economic times [37] - Hassert, a potential Fed chair candidate, thought the US was behind in rate - cutting [39] - The US Q3 real GDP increased by 4.3% quarter - on - quarter [39] - The US December consumer confidence index declined [39] - The US government suspended some offshore wind power projects [39] - A radioactive water leak occurred during the decommissioning of a reactor in Japan [40] - The Italian Senate passed the 2026 budget with a controversial gold reserve clause [40] International Stock Markets - US major stock indexes rose for four consecutive days, and most Chinese concept stocks fell [41] - European major stock indexes had mixed results [43] - US retail investors' investment in the stock market increased significantly in 2025 [43] Commodities - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for some metal futures [44] - Domestic gold jewelry prices exceeded 1,400 yuan per gram [44] - The water - shell market adjusted its gold pricing system [44] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Tin Branch warned of irrational tin price increases [46] - US and Brent crude oil prices rose due to supply concerns [46] - London base metals mostly rose [46] Bonds - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct central treasury cash deposits on December 26 [47] - China's bond market strengthened, with some bond futures rising and yields falling [47] - US corporate bond issuance neared a record due to the "AI bond issuance wave" [47] - US Treasury yields had different changes [48][49] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the dollar index fell [50]